I would also like to see another lefty in that Pen,but only if he's better than what we have.  Perez would need to convincingly outperform Litsch or Villa before I'd put him in the pen.  Madson would be nice to add, but I don't think his price comes down at all, just the term.  He'll just take a 1 year deal (probably close to 10) and do it all again next offseason. I'm generally happy with this bullpen as it is. 

It is interesting to speculate what follows. I'm not expecting a big move this offseason, but, if we were going to make the big move (i.e. sign Prince, deal for Garza, sign Oswalt) you would think AA would like to have all his pieces into place (i.e. completed the bullpen, dealt with second base, bench) before the big move in order to keep from being strongarmed as we fill out the roster. We are getting close to that time.

I really don't agree with the philosophy of giving up a high upside arm like Jaye (even if he is a lottery ticket at the moment) for a decent middle reliever when the club shows no other signs of trying to compete this year. Gaining an extra win by acquiring Frasor makes no difference in 2012. The Jays already had 7 viable bullpen pitchers with at least 5 more options in AAA. There are still options in FA who cost mere $$ instead of parting with Jaye. Unless AA ends up flipping Frasor during the season for a better prospect than Jaye I find this trade very irritating. Will provide minimal benfit to the 2012 Jays with potential to lose out on a mid-rotation starter. Not a trade I would make. Plus, I hate that I have to watch Frasor take a million years to throw a pitch again.

Jaye isn't one of the Jays 25 best pitching prospects; he was fine as a 20 year old in rookie ball and projects as a reliever. I don't think the Jays are likely to make the playoffs but it is not out of the realm of possibility that they win 90 games and get lucky. There isn't any reason not to try this year.

Luis Perez is out of options, isn't he?  He's been on the 40 man roster for the last 3 seasons, and he was optioned down to the minors at the start of each of those seasons.  I also think I remember reading about how 2011 was his last option year (prior to his first callup to the majors).

I think we're fairly locked into 7 guys now for the bullpen: Santos, Janssen, Oliver, Frasor, Litsch, Perez, Villanueva

It looks like Carreno and other hopefuls will be starting out in AAA, barring injury to one of those other guys.

The Human Rain Delay

iThis is a great nickname. But what in heaven's name doe s Mike hargrove have to do with any of this?

Since the Darvish Yu fiasco and failure to acquire a quality starter/spend money, AA has come under criticism from media/fans - this Frasor deal seems like an attempt to placate some of the fanbase by bringing back a fan favourite - I would have kept the prospects (even these low level ones) and given someone like Chad Beck a chance - Unless AA can spin Frasor in a package for someone more interesting come July, colour me unimpressed with this trade & you can't even get a pick anymore - I hope they use Frasor in middle relief because no matter what the Statistics say, I have no confidence in frasor with the game on the line

I wonder who gets bumped from the 40 man roster when the Oliver deal becomes official?

I see Luis Valbuena had a nice winter season especially with his K:B ratio - I think he will surprise next year and allow the Jays to ship out Kelly Johnson come July. 

What the statistics say is that Jason Fraser is an excellent reliever who is likely to have a melt down from time to time. This melt down is no more likely to happen with the game on the line than it is to happen in the 6th inning of a 10-2 game.  This is also exactly what the visual evidence says.  I don't understand anyone who thinks they see something else because it isn't there.

There is also no way that Fraser was an effort to placate a fan base. This deal is just about getting things in order going into the season. We know what we get from Fraser in the AL East, and we are a better team today than we were two days ago.

We are one decent starter (at this point I'm leaning towards Jackson) away from having a shot at a competitive season and we are 1 decent starter and a first baseman (who could be a resurrected Lind) away from being a playoff team.

Yeah no way I pay Jackson what Boras wants, or even 4/40 this late in the offseason. That being said, I do think he'll be more valuable than Oswalt and Kuroda, although less valuable than Garza. 

I also agree that it is unlikely that Lind returns from the grave, but I didn't want to say the P word for fear of another ridiculous debate.  Perhaps Carlos Pena, although there's a chance he isn't an upgrade over Lind.

I'd just as soon have Frasor ... and the price is negligible

I don't know if I'd say that. 25 Jason Frasors makes for a 94MM payroll, much higher than the team's actual payroll. 3.75MM for 60 innings of 3.70ish ERA is not cheap.

There will never, ever be a better opportunity than this. - about Prince Fielder

Interesting.

Yeah, but there's the additional factor of not having Doc pitching against us, and helping a division rival all year for who know how many years.

By the '09 offseason, Halladay would only allow a trade to the Phillies, being traded to the Yankees was not an option by the time the package including Drabek was available.

There is room to add a bat for the DH spot, and if the team could add an expected .800+ OPS hitter, then I would be in favour of it.

Arencibia, Mathis, Lind, Encarnacion, Johnson, Escobar, Valbuena (or other MI), Lawrie, Snider (or Thames), Rasmus, Bautista, Davis, new 1B or DH.

That's 13 bats.  The bench would be Mathis, Encarnacion (platoon role), Valbuena (or other), and Davis.  Francisco can be cut at the end of spring training if we don't end up needing him, at a low cost.  Teahen should probably be DFA'd.  Thames can start the season in AAA if Snider wins the LF job.  If it would be possible to get a legit masher, at a good value, then I think we could easily fit in another high quality bat without needed to trade (or give away) a valuable player.

Redoing 2011 with those stats only goes so far though.  For one thing there's an extra playoff spot now, and for another if we were close we may have been in on Beltran, or Jackson or other deadline rentals that would have bettered our record.

This is also AA's wish list I believe.

All the language about payroll parameters is meant, I believe, to caution fans against expecting any shiny new toys. Especially, expensive shiny new toys. It would not surprise me in the least to find that AA's moves are done for the off-season.

How about a fantasy/fictional situation. Assume your big bat is Fielder and the good SP is Romero doubled.

A quick back-of-the-napkin analysis using WAR (groan, groan), would suggest the following. If Romero is a 5-win player, then Romero #2 would bump someone at the back end of the rotation for, say, a 4-win upgrade. If Fielder is a 5-win player and Lind a 1-win player, say, then that's another 4-win upgrade. So you're looking at an 8-win upgrade adding these two parts.

"It would not surprise me in the least to find that AA's moves are done for the off-season."

Well Anthopoulos had said all winter long he was looking at adding a middle of the order bat, and #2 caliber SP and has been rumoured to Garza, Latos, Gio, etc etc all winter, but sure there's every reason to believe he's done. Nope.

but sure there's every reason to believe he's done. Nope.

Sorry, you're telling me what will and won't surprise me? Isn't that my call to make?

Looks like he might be doing the Gabe Gross NL pitch hitting/spot starting tour for his career.

In Gross's 7-year career, he has been in the NL for 2 years and a bit. And isn't every hitter's job to be a pitch hitter? Some get fewer opportunities to be pitch hitters. They often serve as pinch-hitters.

I am rather curious as to whether Cooper can cut it at the next level the little I've seen of his swing suggests he can (very Olerud/Grace/Joyner/Shawn Greene). Of course scouts suggest he can't. 

I'm certainly more open to giving him a shot than I am to giving up value for Rizzo or signing Lee or Pena or going after Ike Davis. The appeal of Prince is that he is a perennial MVP candidate. The drop off is massive after him and I am much happier rolling the dice on one of our own guys. Travis Snider has post-hype sleeper written all over him.

Incidentally from what I've seen Lind actually CAN hit lefties but he needs to be locked in.  In June (his "zone" from 2011) he struggled more against righties.  2009 was acceptable against lefties as well. However, when he's off, he is especially off against lefties.  I'm not saying he will ever put it all together, but I do think there's a chance he figures it out.

@ Chuck

Yip, your call. It just runs counter to everything that's been said all winter, but you're allowed to have guesses/opinions. I was recalling him playing more years with the Brewers than apparently he did. As well, I was remembering him as accumulating most of his AB's coming off the bench in the NL as a pitch hitter, rather than a platoon player. He's retired now helping coach football I believe.

I am rather curious as to whether Cooper can cut it at the next level the little I've seen of his swing suggests he can (very Olerud/Grace/Joyner/Shawn Greene). Of course scouts suggest he can't. 

A big, big factor here is age. Cooper turns 25 next month. Olerud was a fulltimer at 21 and Green at 22. Grace and Joyner both turned 24 during their first full seasons.

That Cooper is getting old to start accumulating major league PAs is not a death sentence, in and of itself. However his age does not bode well. There have certainly been late blooming exceptions -- Edgar Martinez only became a fulltimer at 27 -- but these have been comparatively rare.

I'm not saying he will ever put it all together, but I do think there's a chance he figures it out.

Isn't there a greater chance that somebody else can do it better? After a while, what actually might happen must yield to what has actually been happening.

I was remembering him as accumulating most of his AB's coming off the bench in the NL as a pitch hitter

You're committed to pitch hitter, aren't you?

While we're playing Fantasy GM here, let's switch gears and play Fantasy Fielder.  As in, I'm a mashing somewhat heavy MVP candidate free agent, about to make a gazillion dollars with my vulture agent Darth Boras.

So many options in front of you, but what would YOU do in his large shoes?  And more generally speaking, what would ANY star free agent do?

The first thing I'd do would be to make a list of what I would want in my next gig.

- Happiness
    - Location that makes me and family happy (near family and close friends)
    - Great weather is always nice
    - Easier travel schedule is always nice, including customs considerations
    - Celebrity status and media attention (some like, some don't like)
    - Good ownership group that treats FAs with respect
    - Large market environment (some like the NYs and Bostons, some don't)
    - Great clubhouse and teammates with chance of contending
    - etc

Based on some combination of the above, I would narrow down my list of teams as much as possible, and rank each team.  So let's say that for myself, my list's top 5 looks something like this:  San Diego, Miami, Toronto, Seattle, Los Angeles.

Chuck, good points for sure. It certainly would be a long shot on Cooper, but he has always had the on base skills, hits left handed, and doesn't cost us anything.  In the absence of Prince Fielder (and assuming continued suckage from Lind) I'd like to see him get a shot.

Subculture, I like the creativity, the one problem I see with Snider at first is height.  Sub-6' guys just don't play first that much, particularly ones with T-Rex arms who won't have significant reach with the glove. Thames is a little bigger and might work, but we would run into the same trouble we apparently had with Lind last year in that he'd be learning a new position on the job.  I'd be fine with demoting him to start the year with a 1B assignment, promoting Cooper and playing Lind until he's ready.

The bullpen is now better than last year, (except I wish we had Rzep instead of Oliver).  I think that is good for a couple wins.

For starting pitching, I think Romero is a smart guy and he just gets better every year.  Some day, we might even have the word Cy Young with his name.  Morrow, on the other hand, I think we will always have an underachiver.  My issue is the other three.  Alvarez, Cecil and McGowan is a skeptical three.  I hope that last year put Cecil's head on straight and he had a better off season.  I would not like to hinge the year on Alvarez though.  It would be nice to have one more starter.

The offense, is in good hands.  Last year, we didn't have a 3rd baseman until the last quarter, EE was a mess at the beginning, and we had Davis and Paterson in the OF.  There are not as many questions this year.  Even if Bautista falls off this year a bit, I think the offense is going to be better.  The one player that I am looking forward to seeing is JPA this year.  I think he is the kind of guy, that learns and gets better at every level he plays.  He is such a good embassador for the Jays. 

Don't forget how many rookies the Jays had start last season. 

In conclusion, I wish we had one more starter for the season. Other than that, I am ready for the season.  With or without Fielder or Darvish.

Keep in mind, I made all those assumptions and then cut the results in half.

You mean you resisted the temptation to mark Lawrie down for an 11-win season (something neither Mike Schmidt nor George Brett ever did)?

1) Ricky Romero is better, as a pitcher, in 2011 than in 2010, yet that WAR-ish crap values him less.    Generally it's accepted that Ricky Romero will have a year as consistent as he can be, and that WAR-ish crap will value him less.   That doesn't make sense.   In team wins generated by Romero, I have him at worst +/- 0.  

2) Brandon Morrow is hard to understand, except to know he won't be worse.   So I agree with +/- 0 for him.   But, if he gets it, he becomes so much better.   In team wins generated by Morrow, he can be +3 to +5 Wins by himself.  

3) Brett Cecil is so motivated to lose weight and get in shape, I fully expect his season to be similar to 2010 than to 2011 (he's in danger of being replaced, and the replacements are almost ready).   In team wins generated by Cecil, I have him at +1.5 - +2 wins.

4) Henderson Alvarez cannot help but be better than what pitched for us last year.   So I agree with +1.5 for him.

5) Whomever wins the 5th Starter Position cannot be worse than what we had.   So I agree with a +/- 0 here.

This Pitching Staff is better than last year's.   That gets me a minimum of 3 more wins, to a possible 8.5 more wins from this Starting Staff (without a major acquisition here: another +2 - +5 wins).

6) Rauch and Francisco alone blew 9 saves out of 37 oppportunities.   I think we have a better defense than Chicago.   I make the Sergio Santos acqusition worth +3 -+6 wins.

7) Darren Oliver is effective verses Right-handers and Left-handers, and thrives on consistent work.   I have him at +1 - +1.5 wins.

8) Jason Frasor, Cassey Janssen return as quality relievers, so I agree with +/- 0 here.

9) Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villanueva should not have to Start next year, staying quality relievers.   I have them at +1 win this year.

I still don't know for sure if we're having 6 or 7 Relievers or 4 or 5 Outfielders and refuse to speculate.   This Bullpen is an upgrade on last year's, a minimum of +5 wins to a possible +8.5 wins.

The +8 to +17 wins are considered excessive only by a pessimist, and I think the Batters can generate equal numbers.   An acquisition of a Front-line starter to this team eliminates any doubt this is a Post-Season Team.   An acquisition of Prince Fielder sends notice to everyone "we're here!"   You just have to decide to do it.  

Along came this: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/starting-pitching-options-for-the-blue-jays.html , where I saw this: Alex Anthopoulos hasn't committed more than $3.75MM to any free agent since becoming the Blue Jays' general manager more than two years ago...   Is this "payroll parameters"?   Or, is A.A. unwilling to risk making a possible mistake?   This has bearing on future A.A. moves.

Boras was trying to get Prince Fielder a 10 Year, $200.0 MM contract, and to date, no takers.   My idea, offer Fielder at 4 Years, $100.0 MM and at age 31, one year younger than Albert was, a Free Agent again.   He'd have 5 - 7 years to get another $100.0 MM.   Or, offer Fielder at 5 Years, $125.0 MM and at 32, still slightly younger than Albert, a Free Agent again.  He'd have 4 - 6 years to get another $75.0 MM.   Boras might go for it, unless he doubts Fielder's ability to stay productive.

You're also projecting 3.0 WAR from a pitcher who has thrown 56 professional innings in the last 3 seasons and had an ERA over 6 during his time in the majors.

"where I saw this: Alex Anthopoulos hasn't committed more than $3.75MM to any free agent since becoming the Blue Jays' general manager more than two years ago...   Is this "payroll parameters"?   Or, is A.A. unwilling to risk making a possible mistake?   This has bearing on future A.A. moves."

All of the high upside talent he acquires comes via trade. He uses free-agency to sign the 1 year stopgap filler, usually relievers. That's why the FA totals are so low. (e.g. John Buck, Alex Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Jose Molina, Ocatavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Darren Oliver)

Yeah, I was kind of hoping for Hernandez as well, but since it's been rumoured, it probably isn't happened.

Something like Hernandez and Olivo for Arencibia, Snider, Cecil, McGuire, and Sanchez.

In the near future, we'd look pretty good with Hernandez, Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, and Hutchison (with others like McGowan and Drabek also in the mix).

While the rumour needs to be dispelled. I'm not quite sure why the Mariners laugh and hang up the phone unless the follow up calls are to Prince Fielder and about 3 other free agent bats.  Their best move right now is to wait out the 2-3 year window of Pujols/Hamilton dominance and then attack. 

Felix is worth just about any player in the league (if I were them I'd be asking for Lawrie) so they don't need to give him away. But they should definitely be considering moving him before he hits the all star game and torpedos his trade value in interviews.  Even nice guys do that.

I actually don't think that is too much for Felix.  If you get a chance to get a guy like that, you go for it.  It is more that what we got for Halladay, but he also has a much more favorable contract than Halladay and a much younger player. A Romero/Felix one-two punch would be incredible, especially in the playoffs.  But I think it is bullshit anyway.  Felix is the only player in Seattle the fans will come out to see.  I am not sure they would want to give him up.  (this tells you why the asking price is high).

I thought this was interesting post. 

I think this is a little of BS too, but in two years, the Jays "plans" should be coming into vision.  At that point, a big acquisition could be more appropriate.

Snider would qualify as a top 10 prospect if he hadn't accumulated so much service time, ditto Kyle Drabek.  The shine may be off those guys a little bit, but they aren't Corey Patterson either.

An offer for Felix Hernandez should read: Drabek or Cecil; Alvarez or Hutchison; Gose or Marisnick; Arencibia or d'Arnaud; and Snider

 "I'd take the view that Travis d'Arnaud is most valuable to us as a trading piece and JPA as a Blue Jay."

Sure, let's trade away the player projected to be a lot better. I know Arencibia has some nice intangibles, got to TO first, made friends yada yada, but results matter.

 "Now, many of the same posters are prepared to toss off JPA because of the 'results' of someone else in AA."

Not quite. Whoever the "same posters" you're talking about, i'm not them. Arencibia was a well regarded prospect just like d'Arnaud eh? Ya. In his first full MLB season JPA performed in line with what prospect forecasters said he would. D'Arnaud trucks along like he has and he's the better player. Am I saying he'll have no bumps in the road? nope. Because all i'm replying to is your comment  that he seeming 'to be ecstatic to be here', isn't a good enough reason to make the better young player the one whom should be traded. I like JP Arencibia and the fact his personality seems great and likely makes him a fun teammate. But assembling the very best talent is the goal. 

That's why I come to the Box - to learn about the Jays from nose-breathing, pre-internet dinosaurs.

I thought noses were for breathing... and smelling... of course, I'm a sophisticated sort that can breathe either through my nose or my mouth. Heck, I'll even multitask it when the mood strikes me right.

As for the Buck playing time thing, I do vaguely remember AA saying that they had promised Buck full time duties when he signed, and they were honoring that commitment. Whether that was completely sincere, or in part an effort to deflect criticism from Cito is for each to judge.

Oh, and way to keep it classy, 92-93.

Travis Snider's only problem, is from the waist up, he's a top baseball player, and from the waist down, he's a statue.   His only job, is to become a top baseball player, from the waist down, then put it all together.   Once he does that, he'll have a good career as a top baseball player.   If he has let it become mental over physical, it could take a very, very long time to resolve, if ever.   It could turn out that not trading Snider, during the 2009-10 Offseason, will become A.A.'s biggest mistake, one he never knew he'd made.    I have great hopes for Snider's success, but no expectations.

Kyle Drabek had pre-draft problems ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyle_Drabek#cite_note-2006draft-3 and http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060606&content_id=1491132&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp ), struggles in the minors http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=drabek001kyl early, Tommy John Surgery, then 2008 success and ...   Not everyone was happy with his pitches and pitch selections, for all his good results.   Was September 2010, a mistake?   Because he was a lot worse in 2011, so much so that he's lost confidence in his stuff, and that can be a disaster.   As it's now mental over physical, he could be a long time coming back, if ever.   Can he make it back?

They're not going away.

A team with a $207,047,964 payroll isn't going away? Pheww. Yes, in '13 $50 MM comes off the books and the Yankees have a payroll of $126.875 for 9 guys as of today.

'"Next year's free agent crop is always better than this year's."

Mmm, I think in a FanGraphs chat recently some folks there guessed that of Cain, Hamel, and Grienke, only Grienke they saw actually hitting the market. But who knows.

The New York Yankees believe they only need one "Ace" to make it to Free Agency or available in trade and he belongs to them.

If you look at the Competitve Balance Tax in the new CBA you'll see what has New York and Boston running scared.

@ 92-93

Huh?

Some people tend to comment on their understanding of what they've read, whether or not their basis of thought is accurate to start with.   Things can be missed (as per the CBA): ...

a. ... Threshold level of $178.0 MM ... will remain unchanged in 2012 and 2013 ... increase to $189.0 MM for 2014, 2015 and 2016.

b. ... 17.5% for 1st time over ...30.0% for 2nd time over ... 40.0% for 3rd time over ... 50.0% for 4th time over ...

c. The Competitive Balance Tax structure under the 2006 Basic Agreement will be modified, so that a team that moves below the threshold, will be treated as going over for the first time, when it next exceeds the threshold.

I also read 92-93's comment, and said: "Huh?".

b. ... 17.5% for 1st time over ...30.0% for 2nd time over ... 40.0% for 3rd time over ... 50.0% for 4th time over ...

Yeah, but this is on the amount OVER the cap, correct? I don't see why 50% of even $40M million has NYY that worried - it's $20M more for a $230M payroll, which would be less than a 10% penalty on the whole.

If you wanted the penalty to actually hurt (teams paying $230M won't be that shy about paying $250M), make it apply to 50% of your salary. That is, if you're over $1M, first time, 17.5% of (189 + 1)/2 = 17.5% of $95M which would be around $15.5 or $16M. Over by $21M, 4th year in a row? $210/2 = $105, 50% = $52.5 penalty tax..

In browsing for Darren Oliver data, I saw he passed the Physical and his Contract became official January 4th.   Since he's still not on the roster, is the a time limit for this to happen?   From listening to John Farrell talking on PTS http://www.fan590.com/media.jsp?content=20120106_160421_7156 , Toronto's going with 5 Outfielders.   This means Mark Teahen no longer has a place on this team (DH: Encarnacion (1B/3B); Bench:  Mathis (C), Valbuena (2B/SS), Davis (LF/CF/RF), ?????(OF)) as we are carrying 7 Relievers.   - OR -   This means Luis Perez no longer has a place on this team (DH: Encarnacion (1B/3B); Bench:  Mathis (C), Valbuena (2B/SS), Teahen (1B/3B/LF/RF), Davis (LF/CF/RF), ?????(OF)) as we are carrying only 6 Relievers.

A.A's busy trying to Trade either Luis Perez or Mark Teahen to clear a 40-man Roster spot for Darren Oliver.   I think he only has 7 days to accomplish this, but am I right?   Is the 11th the last day?

Casey Janssen is in his final year of Arbitration and made $1.095 MM in 2011.   Is he worth a 2 or 3 year contract, with option(s) / buyout(s)?   If so, How Much?

 Carlos Villanueva is in his final year of Arbitration and made $1.415 MM in 2011.    Is he worth a 2 or 3 year contract, with option(s) / buyout(s)?   If so, How Much?

It is time we start discussing Arby-guys and long term contracts.   Why wait until it's over to do anything, let's be pre-emptive.