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The Jays have announced that they acquired outfielder Ben Francisco from the Phillies for minor league LOOGY Frank Gailey.  This trade has quite a few questions surrounding it.

Ben Francisco on JaysVision prior to the Canada Day game between the Phillies and Blue Jays at the Dome.


Why acquire him?  Yes the Jays have two left handed hitters vying for the left field slot, but Francisco has negative splits.  In 2011 he had a tOPS+ of 109 vs a right handed pitcher and 88 against a left handed pitcher.

Does this mean Edwin Encarnacion's days in left field have ended before they began?

Does this mean a trade of one of Eric Thames or Travis Snider is close?

What about Mark Teahen in left field?

Is there room on the roster for another part time hitter?  Rajai Davis is the backup outfielder, we don't have room for another.

Francisco made $1.2m in 2011, I assume he will be well above that for 2012, not that the money matters to this franchise.

Francisco recently turned 30 years old.  Are his best days behind him?

 

Pitcher Jesse Chavez, who was picked up earlier in the off-season, has been designated for assignment to make room.

 

And in other news, third baseman Aramis Ramirez is expected to sign a three year deal with the Brewers today.  That will end well.

 

More to come I am sure....

The Ben Francisco Era Begins | 218 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
TamRa - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:22 PM EST (#248491) #
ok I think....um....







I got nothin'




Except maybe a flip?
BlueJayWay - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:25 PM EST (#248492) #
Somethin' brewin'.
Thomas - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:28 PM EST (#248493) #
To be fair, Francisco's career splits aren't negative. He hits left-handed starters better than right-handed starters. Although, it's by only a slight amount, so it's hard to see this as an acquisition intended for any sort of serious platoon.

Secondly, while it's perhaps premature to suggest that this move is "setting up another trade," it's also very logical to think that the Jays have had talks about trading one of their outfielders. They currently have six outfielders on the roster in Snider, Bautista, Rasmus, Thames, Davis and Francisco, in addition to Teahen (and McCoy). Plus, AA made sure to mention that Kelly Johnson can also play left field after news came out about him accepting arbitration, which seemed strange at the time.

As Gerry points out, if the team intends to go with a seven man bullpen, which all indications are it does, there isn't really the space for two bench players who only play the outfield, so it doesn't seem like both Davis and Francisco fit on the roster

It still raises the question of, if the Jays did intend to trade an outfielder, why not acquire Francisco after the trade? It wasn't likely he'd cost more given that the Phillies signed Nix and appeared to be looking to trade Francisco and Francisco doesn't seem like a particularly unique player who would be in high demand or couldn't be replaced by another player with similar skills if the Phillies dealt him prior to the Jays swooping in.

There are more than three months for this situation to resolve itself, but it's still a puzzling move on its face. Not bad, simply unexpected in not only the player acquired but the type of player he is.
Forkball - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:32 PM EST (#248494) #
For his career Francisco doesn't have much of a difference in his splits.  Both Thames and Snider have been pretty poor against LHs so I imagine that's where he'd get his spot in the lineup when he does play.

And I don't see why 5 OFs is a problem.  You just have to make sure your backup IF can play SS, 2B and 3B.

But it would seem to indicate that the Jays will make a decision on either Snider or Thames.  Or maybe Davis.

PeteMoss - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:35 PM EST (#248495) #
As for the acquistion being made prior to the other (potential) trade, Francisco was a non-tender candidate. Seems reasonably likely that the Phillies would have non-tendered him and then the Jays would be battling every other team for him. Jays decided to make a deal to get him now versus potentially having to pay more as a free agent.
Forkball - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:37 PM EST (#248496) #
It still raises the question of, if the Jays did intend to trade an outfielder, why not acquire Francisco after the trade?

Because it's non-tender day?  That would be the only thing that makes sense to me.
TamRa - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:39 PM EST (#248497) #
eh, i'd argue Francisco wouldn't have made as much on the open market as he would have reasonably been expected to make in arbitration.

That's the usual way with non-tenders.
dan gordon - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:40 PM EST (#248498) #

Francisco's career splits are about as even as you can get.  Career OPS just 9 points apart vs lefties or righties.  Home/road and 1st half/2nd half splits also are close to even.   If they dump Teahen, they could keep Francisco, Davis and one of Thames/Snider on the 25 man roster, giving them a bench of Valbuena, Mathis, Davis and either the righty or lefty outfielder.

They didn't give up much to get him - Gailey has owned the lower minors, but stumbled pretty badly in his first attempt at AA this season.  He's 26 years old.  Very nice K/BB ratios until he hit AA.

Thomas - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:41 PM EST (#248499) #
And I don't see why 5 OFs is a problem. You just have to make sure your backup IF can play SS, 2B and 3B.

It's a problem because strict outfielders generally can't play infield in a pinch, whereas strict infielders can usually play outfield in a pinch. And, there's less risk of injury when an infielder plays outfield than vice-versa, due to things like turning double plays, etc...

Say the Jays have a bench of Davis, Francisco, McCoy and Mathis. McCoy starts for Escobar because he's day-to-day after fouling a ball of his toe the night before. What happens to the team if Kelly Johnson fractures his wrist diving for a grounder in the first inning the next day? Then you have Francisco playing second base, where he is completely unfamiliar (even if you give him some grounders during BP to prepare for this possibility, he's still not an infielder by any stretch of the imagination) and he'll be called upon to do things like turn double plays, feed the shortstop on double plays, cover second on stolen base attempts, etc....

Having one infield reserve might be a risk that is worth taking for roster construction over the course of a few games, but the aforementioned scenario will happen at some point during a 162 game season and is far less appetizing than the alternative of sticking a trained infielder in left field (and it also ignores the fact that two of the team's options for infield reserve in McCoy and Teahen have experience playing the outfield anyway).

China fan - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:45 PM EST (#248500) #
Anthopoulos is scheduled to speak to the media at 5 pm (ET) today.  Would he schedule that if his only news was a minor pickup of a back-up outfielder?  Maybe more is brewing and he'll announce a somewhat bigger move at 5 pm.    Maybe something involving Davis?   And is it possible that the injury to Davis late in the season was more serious than we thought?
Thomas - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:47 PM EST (#248501) #
the Jays would be battling every other team for him. Jays decided to make a deal to get him now versus potentially having to pay more as a free agent.

Fair point, but like TamRa, I don't think Francisco would have earned that much on the open market nor does he have a unique/skilled profile whereby the team couldn't acquire a similar player if bidding on Francisco went higher than they expected or he signed elsewhere. It seems like AA felt otherwise though and paid a quite small cost to be sure to get him and (likely) accept his higher salary.

Speaking of non-tender day, if the Rays don't tender JP Howell, I hope the Jays take a good look at him to fill a role in the bullpen. He wasn't successful last year after missing 2010 due to injury, but was effective in 2008 and 2009. If he looks like he has something approaching his old stuff, he could easily be worth a flyer.

Kelekin - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:47 PM EST (#248502) #
Or this move could mean absolutely nothing.
85bluejay - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:49 PM EST (#248503) #
Francisco is cheaper & better defensively than Davis - so a better fit as a 4th outfielder  - maybe Davis nets some BP help
Mike Green - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:49 PM EST (#248504) #
With that roster, you could move Lawrie to 2nd and Encarnacion (or Bautista)  to 3rd for the rest of the game in the event of simultaneous Escobar/Johnson injuries and get Hechevarria on a plane stat. 

Francisco is actually a decent bench player, and a big step up from Teahen. Thumbs up.

Ryan Day - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:50 PM EST (#248505) #
It's fairly clear that there are some things AA wants to do, even if they aren't sure things. Francisco doesn't make a lot of sense with the current roster configuration, and talking about Kelly Johnson playing outfield when there are no viable candidates for 2b in the organization (unless you're extremely optimistic about Hechavarria) is kind of bizarre.

I don't know if Francisco even makes sense as a 4th OF or replacement for Davis, since he hasn't played much CF in his career.
John Northey - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:51 PM EST (#248506) #
An interesting trade if only because of what might come.

1) The guy given up was irrelevant - not a prospect or likely to be in the majors ever.

2) Defense: 195 G in LF, 130 in RF, 44 in CF. His UZR/150 is poor though, -19.5 in CF, 0.7 in LF, -13.6 in RF lifetime. Almost evenly split between the 3 in the minors (109/93/92 games in LF/CF/RF).

3) Offense: 103 lifetime OPS+. RH hitter thus mixes well with the current LF situation (Thames & Snider both LH as is Lind at 1B with just EE as a RH hitter) Bill James projects a 267/341/424 season for 2012 (via FanGraphs).

4) Entering his age 30 season, so not a prospect or likely to get better.

Everything here tells me he is a backup player who the Jays like to have around 'just in case'. Ideally in a platoon with Thames or Snider. However, given Davis (also a RH hitter) is on the roster I don't see the slot for him.

Yeah, this screams 'shoe about to drop' on something bigger.
BlueJayWay - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:51 PM EST (#248507) #
I hear rumours of an AA press conference at 5pm today on twitter.  If true, there's gotta something coming.  No way they do a PC just for this kind of move.

rpriske - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:54 PM EST (#248508) #
85bluejay - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:54 PM EST (#248509) #
Now the Jays have claimed RHP Jim Hoey from the twins - WoW - playoffs, here we come! 
greenfrog - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 01:57 PM EST (#248510) #
Perhaps the plan is to keep auditioning Franciscos until he finds one he likes (you'd think he would try out other Bautistas, but who am I to question AA?). Next up: Juan Francisco of the Cincinnati Reds.
Thomas - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:00 PM EST (#248511) #
With that roster, you could move Lawrie to 2nd and Encarnacion (or Bautista) to 3rd for the rest of the game in the event of simultaneous Escobar/Johnson injuries and get Hechevarria on a plane stat.

I stand corrected. I forgot about Lawrie's minor league experience at 2B and him temporarily filling in there is preferable to Francisco, although the Jays have shown no indication he's in line for a move there on any sort of semi-permanent basis. I do agree Francisco is clearly better than Teahen.

If the Jays do intend to carry Francisco and Davis on the bench, I hope they are working on finding an infield reserve who is better defensively up the middle than McCoy.

Hoey's latest tweet already makes me a fan of his.

Jonny German - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:01 PM EST (#248512) #
I liked this thread better before it got blasted with the chintzy photo-of-a-screen and gossip column-esque bolding of names.
Thomas - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:05 PM EST (#248513) #
Francisco is cheaper & better defensively than Davis

He hasn't really played CF and I have never heard he is supposed to be good defensively. I don't think he's supposed to better in the field than Davis.

Ryan Day - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:08 PM EST (#248515) #
At least I can understand the appeal of Hoey - he struck out tons of hitters in the minors (10k/9), even if his lack of control (4.4bb/9) has cost him. Maybe you fix a bit of his delivery or change a pitch and he becomes a good reliever.
Kelekin - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:15 PM EST (#248516) #
Come on guys.  Hoey and Francisco fit the team's current "parameters".



#2JBrumfield - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:15 PM EST (#248517) #
I liked this thread better before it got blasted with the chintzy photo-of-a-screen and gossip column-esque bolding of names.

I liked this thread until your comment, which contributes absolutely nothing to the discussion.  Having a bad day, are we?  Smarten up!

As for Francisco, he actually made his debut against the Blue Jays with the Indians May 1, 2007 as a defensive replacement in right field.  His first big league hit was a walk-off homer against Tampa Bay.  Baseball Reference is a wonderful thing!
Kelekin - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:23 PM EST (#248518) #
I partially agree with Jonny - honestly, if this was a JP Ricciardi move, everyone would assume it was a depth move and keep going.  But because AA does, speculation is induced. 

The thread title assumes that there -has- to be more to it.  As if no team has ever brought in competition before for Spring Training.

I'm not saying this isn't the precursor to something, but I kind of miss the days where moves were taken for what they are, and that not every move meant something bigger was happening.
Jonny German - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:27 PM EST (#248519) #
I liked this thread until your comment, which contributes absolutely nothing to the discussion.

You can choose to shout down criticism (which is a small step above deleting it, so there's that), or you can consider if it has any merit. Is my taste indicative of many Bauxites, or am I alone in my preference for a less-is-more approach? Does the screenshot / photo make this a better thread overall, or does the extra load time and screen space make it a net negative?
TamRa - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:30 PM EST (#248520) #
Come on guys. Hoey and Francisco fit the team's current "parameters".
-------------
Acquiring an arb-eligible guy who will make too much money for the role he would play fits the current (supposed) meme of controlling dollars?

Apparently pretty much any move can be spun to fit the hand-wringing over money narrative.
Ryan Day - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:31 PM EST (#248521) #
I'd say there's a pretty big difference between constructive criticism:

Does the screenshot / photo make this a better thread overall, or does the extra load time and screen space make it a net negative?

.... and snarky bitching:
I liked this thread better before it got blasted with the chintzy photo-of-a-screen and gossip column-esque bolding of names.
greenfrog - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:35 PM EST (#248522) #
"Apparently pretty much any move can be spun to fit the hand-wringing over money narrative."

And pretty much any non-move can be spun to disprove the "Jays are going cheap" narrative.
Jonny German - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:36 PM EST (#248523) #
Fair point. My attempt to be concise resulted in excessive snark.

I'll shut up now.
Ducey - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:36 PM EST (#248524) #

Perhaps the plan is to keep auditioning Franciscos until he finds one he likes

Hopefully AA doesn't feel the need to check out San ...

 

Mike Green - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:37 PM EST (#248525) #
FWIW, I don't have a load-time issue with pictures and don't really care much one way or the other.  I love the action shots, but if the idea on this one is just to put a face to the name, a small head and shoulders shot would do the trick and might help the text load faster for those who do have an issue.  Trade/acquisition threads do often generate a lot of comments quickly.
melondough - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:38 PM EST (#248526) #
Is there actually a news conference planned for today or was that sarcasim? I see nothing of this mentioned anywhere.
Kelekin - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:41 PM EST (#248527) #
MLBTR - "The Blue Jays are focused on Athletics lefty Gio Gonzalez, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Last week, Slusser reported that 12 teams were interested in Gonzalez, and there were indications the A's and Jays might try to involve a third team to facilitate a deal."

Guaranteed that Snider or Thames goes in any deal for Gio, along with a top pitching prospect.

But really, I don't think the price will be worth what we give up for him.  Solid pitcher, but overrating is clearly seen in his home/away splits.
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:46 PM EST (#248529) #
I did humbly request some conservatism with the use of images in the front page of the Box  and in certain content a few days ago.  It did seem to have some resonance with several fellow Bauxites.  I too was disappointed today to see that the request had fallen upon deaf ears. 
China fan - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:47 PM EST (#248531) #

It was Mike Cormack, of SportsNet, who said that Anthopoulos would talk to reporters at 5 pm (probably by teleconference).  Normally that's a pretty solid indication of a definitely scheduled event, since the Jays need to tell the major media in advance of the event.  Since then, I haven't heard anything to indicate if the 5 pm event is definitely happening or not.  But it's not sarcasm. 

Also, the Jays have outrighted Jeroloman and Carpenter to Las Vegas.  If both have been removed from the 40-man roster, it suggests that the Jays are on the verge of acquiring someone else.

ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:48 PM EST (#248532) #
I should stress that I do enjoy the photography.  I just wanted it to be devoted to "non-news threads" and kept off the front page.
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:49 PM EST (#248533) #
I believe Jeroloman and Carpenter free spots for Francisco and Hoey.
China fan - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:51 PM EST (#248534) #
But the Jays also removed Chavez from the 40-man roster today.  So, they've removed 3 names from the 40-man roster, and have acquired only 2 players so far.   Room for one more.  A non-tender candidate?  Or something bigger?
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:52 PM EST (#248535) #
Well Jeroloman was DFA'd last week....for Santos? 
Kelekin - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 02:57 PM EST (#248536) #
The 40-man roster is at 40.
Brent S - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:02 PM EST (#248537) #
I'd like to voice my opinion as well. I enjoy the photography as well, but if the photos could be kept off the front page until after the "jump", I think it would make everything look less cluttered.
China fan - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:05 PM EST (#248538) #
Okay, if Jeroloman was removed from the 40-man for Santos, then they're still at 40 now.  It's just odd that Jeroloman and Carpenter were both announced simultaneously as being outrighted to Las Vegas today.
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:08 PM EST (#248539) #
Wilner tweeted that Jeroloman DFA was to make room for KJ accepting arb.  How one player takes four days to clear waivers and another takes four minutes, i don't know.
92-93 - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:08 PM EST (#248540) #
The more options the better. Francisco is cheap and Gailey is a non-prospect.
BCMike - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:11 PM EST (#248541) #
FWIW I missed the Pujols signing thread because it was a "photo of the day" thread (which I have disabled in preferences).

On Gio Gonzalez... nice looking pitcher, but seems like AA would be going after him at a "buy high" price - not his usual method. Gonzalez' K rate his nice, but his walk rate has to be a concern especially in the AL East. Then there's the home/road thing - career babip away from Oakland (and the rather large foul territory) is 30 points higher.

Thomas - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:12 PM EST (#248542) #
Guaranteed that Snider or Thames goes in any deal for Gio, along with a top pitching prospect.

AA has a tendency to avoid pulling the rumoured move, but the Jays and A's do line up, at least in part, for a Gio trade, as Oakland lost its entire starting outfield to free agency (although they presumably filled one of those spots when they got Cowgill in the Cahill deal) and Toronto could trade one of the team's young outfielders. I agree one of the outfielders alone wouldn't be enough.

markham_jay - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:32 PM EST (#248543) #
The Blue Jays are focused on Athletics lefty Gio Gonzalez ...Solid pitcher, but overrating is clearly seen in his home/away splits.

Those splits are even worse against the best in our division.  Not sure how much this will portend to anything because he gives up a lot of runs versus the Twins and Royals as well.

Team          W-L    ERA
New York    1-4     7.27
Boston        2-1     5.79
Tampa        1-1     4.86
Toronto       2-2     3.31
Baltimore    1-2     3.26




Mylegacy - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:35 PM EST (#248544) #
I say Hoey on both Ben and Jim. Meh.

Neither of these guys are worth talking about. The only rational thought I have about Ben is that Davis' injury is worse than reported. Davis is the PERFECT off the bench pinchrunner - he actually gives us a seriously good late inning threat on the bases - assuming some other player actually got the hit that allowed Davis to come into the game.

I suspect - if at the end of the day it ends up making any sense - that Thames or Snider will have been traded along with Davis (and other shiny pieces) in a Geo Deal - and Ben will end up the number 4 guy in the outfield.

baagcur - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:40 PM EST (#248545) #
I did humbly request some conservatism with the use of images in the front page of the Box and in certain content a few days ago. It did seem to have some resonance with several fellow Bauxites. I too was disappointed today to see that the request had fallen upon deaf ears.

You could disable images

It is only 28kb

greenfrog - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:42 PM EST (#248546) #
This is all just a bunch of Hoey as far as I'm concerned.
Chuck - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:45 PM EST (#248547) #

What I wouldn't give for the press conference to be Ben Francisco, AA and John Farrell doing the Don Francisco bit from Love & Death.

ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:48 PM EST (#248548) #

It is only 28kb

I don't think it's a size thing.  It's a unique problem to this website that causes it not to load properly (seemingly, but not definitively) when there's a lot of images on the page.

Mylegacy - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:52 PM EST (#248549) #
I think Molina was worth Santos - even though Molina looks wonderfully juicy to me. WHY? Because I see Santos as being very close to being a SPECTACULAR shut down closer. I love that guy - have any of you just actually watched him pitch and enjoyed his stuff?

HOWEVER - Gio Gonzalez gives me NO scuh goosebumps. I'd be upset to lose ANOTHER of our young uber-pitchers (Hutchison, Syndergaard, Sanchez, etc.) for Gio. The ONLY -goodish pitching prospect I'd not cry all day over if we offered him for Gio is McGuire - and even there I think we'd be the loser.

By the way - Gio's splits scare me silly (not to mention his being dominated by NY and the Sox). HOWEVER (the second in caps however in this post) over at Fangraphs - (or some other similar baseball sabermetricly anal site) they said Gio's "fx, rwar, kwar, ffip, or what ever all that bs high tech baseball math stuff is " on the road were not that much different than all his "bs up above" at home. For whatever that is worth.

Still too early for a single malt.

sam - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:56 PM EST (#248550) #
I really hope Ben Francisco is not on our roster come spring training. A year in which I have to see Ben Francisco and Mark Teahan hit will be too much.
sam - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:57 PM EST (#248551) #
If there is a move in the works, I'm not convinced it's Gio. There have been numerous leaks and that is very un-AA.
Richard S.S. - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 03:57 PM EST (#248552) #

A.A.'s press conferences usually occur, more spontaneously than officially pre-scheduled, so this one is unusual.   This presages an Major Announcement, or a Major Policy Decision.     5 PM ET is the big news time nationally.   This shouldn't announce a decision not to post for Darvish (usually early afternoon), nor a tragic occurence of some kind (usually right away).   It could be a major financial announcement on payroll as per Rogers' Board (won't that set a cat amongst the pigeons).   IMO, this is a big trade or big signing.   WHO?

1) The Bullpen: We need a top Reliever for the 8th inning and maybe a second left-hander.   This doesn't seem a big enough event.

2) The Rotation: Acquring a Starting Pitcher via a trade would require this level of publicity.    A free agent Pitcher signing might need the publicity, only who? 

3) Second Base: Signing  Kelly Johnson multi-year would do it, sell it to the fans.   A trade for a Second Baseman might be big enough, but other acquisitions should have more priority.

4) Contract Signing: Brett Lawrie - of course; Brandon Morrow - of course; who else?

6:30 NFLD; 6:00 ATL; 5:00 EAS; 4:00 Cen; 3:00 MTN; 2:00 PAC.   Time will see.

ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:01 PM EST (#248553) #

I'm not sure I'd trade Syndergaard and Hutchison for anything right now.  There's plenty of other talent trading partners should be content with.

I don't think we'll see any action on the Gio front (or other front line starter) until we see who wins the Darvish sweepstakes - which should be known sometime between Thursday and next Tuesday.

greenfrog - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:02 PM EST (#248554) #
Where can you watch / listen to these press conferences?
Mike Green - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:02 PM EST (#248555) #
As the Rays just extended Matt Moore, I could certainly see a Lawrie extension.  We'll see.
braden - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:05 PM EST (#248556) #
If this press conference is actually happening (has it been confirmed anywhere?), my first thought was an extension for Lawrie.
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:05 PM EST (#248557) #
Lawrie seems to be three time zones away from Arencibia, according to Twitter, which would seem to preclude an extension for young Brett.
Kelekin - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:10 PM EST (#248558) #
I've always been a fan of sabermetrics, but sometimes they justify performance due to other factors (e.g. Morrow's k/9).  As a high strikeout pitcher, Gonzalez gets a huge boost from certain metrics.

We need arms, yes, but does Gio put us over the top? Doubtful.  And with so many teams interested in him, it's hard to believe we'd come out on top of this trade long-term.
D. King - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:12 PM EST (#248559) #
Maybe Christmas has come early in the form of a three way deal with Cincy!
China fan - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:19 PM EST (#248560) #
It's confirmed that Anthopoulos is doing a 5 pm conference call with the media today.  But he did the same after the Mathis trade, so it's possible that he might be solely discussing the acquisition of Ben Francisco and nothing else.
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:19 PM EST (#248561) #

There's more than just Gio and his 2011 SIERA of 3.78 available, though.

  • Jon Niese, 3.42
  • Brandon McCarthy, 3.49
  • Gavin Floyd, 3.70
  • Wandy Rodriguez, 3.80
  • John Danks, 3.81
  • Ervin Santana, 3.95
  • Edwin Jackson, 4.01

All of the above are rumoured to be available.  I think once it's determined who gets Darvish, everybody else will target a pitcher and see if they can get a deal done.  Froma buzz perspective, Gio seems to be the cream of the crop and most in demand.

Ryan Day - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:21 PM EST (#248562) #
The Jays are announcing their winter promotional tour, so that might be the reason behind the conference call.
jgadfly - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:31 PM EST (#248563) #
Oakland supposedly asked for Banuelas and Montero from the Yankee$  for  Gonzales .  I can see Drabek and Snider as perceived equal value/upside by Oakland.
braden - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:34 PM EST (#248564) #

I can see Drabek and Snider as perceived equal value/upside by Oakland

Oh, not a chance. Montero's miles ahead of Snider at this point.

In terms of perceived equal value, I think you're looking at D'Arnaud and Alvarez. Which I would hope AA wouldn't touch.

Mike Green - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 04:48 PM EST (#248565) #
Montero and Banuelos for Gio?  That's funny.  Maybe Beane has been watching a movie about the good ol days of F'N A trades.
China fan - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 05:00 PM EST (#248566) #
One other quick point:  if Anthopoulos is calling a conference call just to talk about Ben Francisco, it implies that he's not being flipped to another team in some looming package deal.  It implies that the Jays see him having a role on the team in 2012.  Anyway I guess we'll find out soon if that's all it is.
Ron - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 05:08 PM EST (#248567) #
The Jays have announced the details of their 2012 Winter Tour.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111212&content_id=26149478&vkey=pr_tor&c_id=tor

I'm surprised they're only focusing on the East Coast this year after heading out West last year. Romero, Cecil, Arencibia, Lawrie, Thames, and Janssen are the players the fans will get a chance to meet.

Gerry - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 08:58 PM EST (#248568) #
The Jays have announced that they have signed Jesse Litsch, Dustin McGowan and Jeff Mathis to contracts for 2012 to avoid arbitration.
sam - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 09:49 PM EST (#248570) #
Apparently the Jays want to go with five outfielders next year. So that's Thames/Snider, Davis, Francisco, Rasmus, Bautista?

Good god this offseason sucks. Why on earth did we acquire Ben Francisco. He is not good, nor does he possess the tools that might suggest that he could be good. He is such a waste of space on our roster. We already have Davis and Teahan that can play his position, not to mention Thames or Snider. I don't get it. Even if there is a mega-trade or something, Francisco is not a trade chip and teams are not going to want both Snider and Thames, so any trade leaves one with the LF position. Even in the most ridiculous of trades, does a team or several teams take Rajai Davis, Mark Teahan, Edwin Encarnacion, Travis Snider, and Eric Thames. In which case, well I guess we could use Francisco... NO!
rfan8 - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 10:33 PM EST (#248571) #

It feels like AA is trying to add some vets to the roster as subs to help our regulars.  Our regulars tend to be on the young side. 

John Northey - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 11:27 PM EST (#248572) #
It does seem the Jays are trying to lock up as many ML ready guys as they can, then hope to sort them out in spring.

We know CF/RF/3B/SS/CA for certain (Rasmus/Bautista/Lawrie/Escobar/JPA with Mathis). 1B/DH/2B have guys in place but AA hasn't given any of them a lock on those positions (Lind/EE/Johnson). LF is a dogs breakfast but lots of young LH talent (Snider/Thames) and veteran RH players (Francisco/Davis). So the 13 hitters have 6 slots 100% locked up, 3 more pretty much locked in, and 4 open for battle. Those 4 have to include an everyday LF (or platoon), a backup for CF/RF/LF, someone to backup 2B/SS and someone to cover 3B/1B.

Candidates...
LF/OF: Thames, Snider, Davis, Francisco - two will survive, with the Jays suggesting up to 3 could.
2B/SS: McCoy, Luis Valbuena are the only contenders at this point, but I suspect more will be in the mix before spring
3B/1B: Teahen, umm... err... lets hope someone else shows up soon. McCoy does have 20 games in the majors at 3B, Valbuena 10 so they technically could cover it.

Given what the Jays seem to be saying, I suspect they think McCoy or Valbuena can cover 3B/SS/2B with emergency call-ups should someone get hurt (McCoy being on the shuttle bus). Teahen will get a last chance to prove himself in spring. And either Thames or Snider get to platoon with Francisco while Davis is a pinch runner/defensive replacement.

I'm hoping more changes are coming. Soon.
Kelekin - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 11:32 PM EST (#248573) #
I would prefer Snider and Thames both be on the roster in that case - if Snider has any chance of success, it needs to come at the major league level.  It's his make or break season.
Mylegacy - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 11:36 PM EST (#248574) #
Has any team ever had there best pitching prospect (Drabek) and their best hitting prospect (Snider) BOTH turn into pumpkins more or less at the same time?

AND - which of the two is more likely to have a better career?
Flex - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 12:27 AM EST (#248575) #
I too was disappointed today to see that the request had fallen upon deaf ears.

There actually seems to have been an increase in the number of front-page pictures since that request was made. As an ex-magazine guy, I'm all for visuals, but they don't need to be that big. And nothing would be lost, honest, if they were bumped to the inside.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 12:40 AM EST (#248576) #
Any non-tenders of interest - especially pre-arb?
TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 01:06 AM EST (#248579) #
Maybe Ryan Theriot?

Seems to best suit our needs - IF he can field shortstop in an above average way - i'm not aware of his defense.
TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 01:19 AM EST (#248580) #
"Wilner tweeted that Jeroloman DFA was to make room for KJ accepting arb. How one player takes four days to clear waivers and another takes four minutes, I don't know."

Best guess is that Jeroloman had to clear waivers (standard for a DFA) and Carpenter did not. I presume that possibly has something to do with something complex having to do with a slightly different set of rules applying to each.

keep in mind that Jeroloman didn't have to be DFA'd the first time he was removed from the roster so maybe it's as simple as that - that this is the second time they removed him so he was classified differently.

Also, Carpenter might have been waived 4 days ago and it wasn't considered significant enough to report.
TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 01:24 AM EST (#248581) #
"And pretty much any non-move can be spun to disprove the "Jays are going cheap" narrative."

Actually no. but thanks for the deflection.

in point of fact, I've made no claim about what Francisco's salary says about the Jays willingness to spend either way. It proves nothing and I've not said it proved anything.

So I'm not sure what spin you are referring to.
TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 01:41 AM EST (#248582) #
"But the Jays also removed Chavez from the 40-man roster today. So, they've removed 3 names from the 40-man roster, and have acquired only 2 players so far. Room for one more. A non-tender candidate? Or something bigger?"

Santos took Molina's spot
Jeroloman DFA'd for Johnson (when he accepted Arb)
Chavez DFA'd for Francisco
Carpenter removed for Hoey

your mix up is that having been DFA'd last week, Jeroloman was already off the roster - he just cleared waivers today - essentially all one transaction and obviously just the one guy.
TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 01:47 AM EST (#248583) #
"Any non-tenders of interest - especially pre-arb?"

Another interesting guy:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kuoho01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker

Hong-Chih Kuo - LHP

had a rough 27 IP in 2011, but over the three previous seasons...

1.96 ERA
0.953 WHIP
207 ERA+
5.8 H/9
2.8 BB/9
10.6 K/9
170 IP

not sure what went wrong with 2011 but he didn't miss any extended period with major injury. you'd have to be looking close at him, no?
Michael - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 02:24 AM EST (#248584) #
+1 to the request for less images or smaller images.

I think the Jays are better suited than most teams to carry extra OF because Bautista can play 3b (well even!) if needed, and Lawrie can play 2b (in theory) and in general you can plunk an OF at 1B in an emergancy (and EE can take 1B or 3B in a pinch too in theory).

Thomas - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 05:42 AM EST (#248585) #
Theoriot can't really play SS, so I don't think he's a particularly great fit.

He's rumoured to be likely to resign with the Braves, but I've always liked Pete Moylan. He's not a lefty, but he's had four years of being a very effective reliever. He's going to miss the first two months of the season due to arthroscopic surgery, but could provide a nice bump to the bullpen in the second half if he has fully recovered.

China fan - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 05:53 AM EST (#248586) #

....Good god this offseason sucks....

Well, that's a bit melodramatic.  Compared to just a few months ago, the Jays have upgraded significantly at two key positions: 2B and closer.  And the off-season is really just beginning.  It's pretty clear that Anthopoulos is aggressively in the hunt for another starting pitcher, another reliever and a "big bat."  He has specifically mentioned all of those targets, and I don't think he would be so specific if he was intending to fold his cards and stand pat.  He probably won't get all three, but he might get two of the three. Let's wait and see.  But to upgrade at two key positions is nothing to scoff at.

As for Ben Francisco:  he's a back-up OF and he's produced a significantly higher OPS and OBP than Rajai Davis over the past two seasons.  And he's cheaper.  And he was acquired for essentially nothing.  I don't see anything to complain about.  He's obviously not the solution at LF or anywhere else, but he's a useful back-up and an upgrade over Davis if they need to trade Davis or if Davis has any lingering effects from his thigh injury.

pubster - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 07:19 AM EST (#248587) #
If I remember correctly, Theriot is a poor fielding SS.

The Jays may not have made the splash this offseason that everyone wanted, but they should get more production from 3B, 2B, and CF than they did last year. 1B can also be more productive if Lind sits against lefties.

The Jays made a lot of big moves during the season that if they made during the offseason would be considered big deals (ie. Acquiring Rasmus and Kelly Johnson).



Jonny German - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 10:05 AM EST (#248589) #
Moves AA made after December 13 last year:

Signed Edwin Encarncion, Corey Patterson, Jon Rauch
Traded Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera
Traded Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco

So that's essentially 1 big trade and 2 medium-sized FA signings.

If that were to repeat this year I'd take a first baseman in the trade and a reliever and a backup shortstop as the signings.

If I can ask for more than that I'll replace the reliever with a Yu Darvish.
China fan - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 10:28 AM EST (#248590) #
Octavio Dotel was also signed in January 2011, so that makes 3 medium-sized FA signings that the Jays did after Dec. 13 last year.  Jonny is right -- this is way too early in the off-season to draw any conclusions yet.
Jevant - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 10:42 AM EST (#248591) #
Bit surprised that Thames and Cecil are on the list there.  Is that more of a vote of confidence than I would have expected, or simply idle speculation on my part?
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 10:48 AM EST (#248592) #
"So I'm not sure what spin you are referring to."

Not referring to any spin in this thread, but rather the general idea that anyone who asks tough questions about the new talk about "parameters" (after the FO's previous hints about significant payroll increases, becoming a mid-tier team like Anaheim, etc) is automatically accused of "negativism" - instead of, say, healthy skepticism. Bias cuts both ways.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 11:19 AM EST (#248594) #
At first I was surprised to see Cecil and Thames but then I remembered last year had Scott Richmond mixed in.

I suspect the Jays take anyone who played/was on the roster of the big league team the year before who is willing to travel around while putting some pressure on the bigger name guys to make at least a token appearance somewhere.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 11:32 AM EST (#248595) #
Very reasonable deal for Aramis Ramirez. It's a shame AA has a pathetic budget to work with.
ayjackson - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 11:35 AM EST (#248596) #
It's nice of Cecil to come down from his Kansas bear stand in the heart of the winter to meet the fans.  It will be interesting to see if he's actually gotten himself into decent shape, as reports have indicated.
Shane - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 11:51 AM EST (#248597) #

Very reasonable deal for Aramis Ramirez. It's a shame AA has a pathetic budget to work with.

Haha dude, so Anthopoulos shoulda signed Ramirez to play 3rd?

pubster - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 12:10 PM EST (#248598) #

<sarcasm>
AA should use his entire budget THIS offseason. That way even though they may not be able to sign their own FA, or spend anything NEXT offseason, they will increase their odds of winning 87 games this year.

I say scrap the rebuilding plan, we've waited too long!
</sarcasm>

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 12:23 PM EST (#248603) #

Very reasonable deal for Aramis Ramirez.

Aramis Ramirez: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirar01.shtml gets a contract until age 36, defense is likely to slide.   Milwaukee paid what the could afford for the best bat they could afford.   It remains to be seen if they get good value (2.1 or better WAR - 6.3 total).

It's a shame AA has a pathetic budget to work with.

It's a shame non-Blue Jay fans have to make pathetic comments, on this site, to boost their self-esteem, in themselves and in their team.  

A.A. has more money to spend than most people would believe.   A.A. has a firm grasp of where this team is.   A.A. has a good idea of the value of a player (it's his job).   He knows where he want to go with monies, and he knows where he wants to go on term.   When they match or are close enough to satisfy, he makes the deal.   If they don't, he moves on.

92-93 - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 12:30 PM EST (#248604) #
I forgot Shane, the team has absolute studs at 1B & DH, and a guarantee at 3B whose defense has never been questioned (not that you'd want Aramis there regularly anyway). My bad.

The Blue Jays don't have any impending FAs of consequence, and it's a complete myth that they can't spend money now so they can have "flexibility" later. When you're at 65m there's plenty of room to augment your roster now while still leaving room to give long term contracts to players like Morrow & Rasmus if you deem them worthy.

You know what the best part is? I've thrown out a ton of guys who can be had on 1 and 2 year deals, and those provoke zero reaction/discussion from you guys. Dare to suggest Rogers has been cheap and the legion of AA/Beeston defenders rises up. Is there a specific date you guys have in mind when it will be okay to start to criticize management for a lack of results? I genuinely want to know how long Paul Beeston has.
Shane - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 01:05 PM EST (#248609) #

@ 92-93

Haha, wo wo, hold the train. I only commented on 3rd base. So, in theory Anthopoulos could have courted and had Ramirez agree to sign to play first base? Or platoon with Lind? Or to become a DH? None of those sound likely considering the history of free-agents, pride, etc. So you're saying you have doubts about Lawrie now? I thought you, like nearly all of us, were especially pleased with Lawrie's MLB debut, and his defence which looked far better than any of us were lead to expect? Even Keith Law has revised a more positive outlook on Lawrie's ability to play an effect 3rd base. I'm surprised this particular player/position would be an opportunity you'd use to push your payroll concerns/manifesto.

That's not completely fair or true though, bud. I believe i'm not the only one who has agreed that Rich Harden would be a interesting/enjoyable signing if possible/reasonable/willing. Do you see any other clubs rushing to sign/trade fill every roster spot they have available to this point? No, obviously a lot of shrewd cost conscious Org's are waiting on, whatever. So I don't see the panic, nor the reason to start espousing all this negativism that Rogers/Anthopoulos will never SPEND!1! 2 WINZ!!11 fear mongering. So no, if like numerous Jays fans, you wish me to without proof declare that Alex Anthopoulos is a shill, or disingenuous or an extension of some 20 year Skull & Bones-like society, whose sole aim is to perpetually deceive and lie to the entire populace just to make MONIES!1! No, I will not. In case you haven't noticed yet, no one has signed Prince Fielder yet. And i'm sorry if Anthopoulos didn't sign Eric Bedard, but maybe he's been sorta kinda trying to make a bigger, higher upside, longerterm transaction. Dude, with the fire and brimstone. Jebus. Man, you'd look silly if Darvish ended up a Blue Jay.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 01:24 PM EST (#248613) #

I've thrown out a ton of guys who can be had on 1 and 2 year deals...

Scrolling back up from your entry on this post I find no names as mentioned.   As for what you did on another post (what goes in a post usually stay there), go back there and look closely, we gave it as much attention as it deserved.   My overwhelming opinion was why do we want these stiffs.

John Northey - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 01:54 PM EST (#248615) #
Ramirez... $12 mil per for 3 years. Uh, no thanks.

He is entering his age 34 season, and while he has hit for a 130+ OPS+ in 2 of the last 3 years and 120+ for 7 of the last 8 he also had just a 95 in 2010 and is very much on the wrong side of 32. If we didn't have Lawrie I could see a case for him but if he isn't at 3B then he is at 1B and I don't see him being a $12 mil a year 1B over his age 34/35/36 seasons. He has an 890 OPS in the daytime vs 805 at night and being away from the Cubs means a lot less daytime play. On turf he has hit 237/288/369 (514 PA). In Wrigley he is a 925 OPS player, in Toronto he was a 846 in 29 PA.

He would've been an asset, but spending $12 mil on a guy who is past his prime and probably wants to play where our best young player is playing seems like a poor use of cash.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 01:58 PM EST (#248616) #
The Jays can sign Darvish and still not approach a median MLB payroll from 2011. The Jays spent more on payroll 10 years ago, and the average ticket price has gone up about 40% in that time.

And I didn't actually mean SIGN RAMIREZ, although I would have spoken with his agent to find out how flexible he would be. I was trying to say that if Aramis was signing a deal like that it's a reasonable FA market and there would be additions that could be made that wouldn't compromise a team's long term flexibility, unless it had to operate like the Rays. Then you just sign Manny and trade Morrow.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 02:03 PM EST (#248617) #
As for Lawrie's defense, I'm going to roll with the man himself for now:

"He doesn't have a position. Well, I do. I have 9 of them, I can play any of them, it doesn't matter." - Lawrie
Shane - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 02:08 PM EST (#248618) #
So at this point? You move him to LF? He's obviously locked into 3rd for '12 anyways. Yes, he's a great athlete, confident, and team oriented, and you didn't actually want Ramirez signed anyways, so what's the point? I guess you are in fact happy with his D. Glad to hear it. I am as well.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 03:27 PM EST (#248620) #

I don't know why people want to sign oft-injured players, like Harden and Bedard.   This is not best value.  

My Starters would be 1) Ricky Romero, 2) New Acquisition (as good as, or better than Romero, and better than Morrow), 3) Brandon Morrow, 4) Henderson Alvarez (because he can), 5) one of: Dustin McGowan, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek (find out who can, because more are on the way).  

Alex's policy has been find out what you have, especially with young arms.  

My Relievers would be (CL) Sergio Santos, (8TH) New acquisition, (7TH) Casey Janssen, (LHP) ???, (LHP) ???, (Long/Short) Jesse Litsch, (Long/Short) Carlos Vilanueva.

Posters were saying a Closer would only save us 6 more wins from last season.   IMO, that's a start.   I belive we kept 3 of our best 4 relievers in that trade.   Upgrading the remainder of the Bullpen equals how many more wins?   Acquiring a top starter should easily be worth 6 more wins.   The balance of the Rotation is improved, how many wins does that gain us.   I firmly believe, that if A.A. improves the pitching staff, like he says he will, the Team will win 92-94 games.   I just don't know how much better the Hitting will be next season.

 

John Northey - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 03:38 PM EST (#248621) #
IMO AA operates like I try to. Either you get the dollar store item or the premium item, screw the middle ground as it just eats cash and gets you little more than the dollar store item.

So players asking for $5-15 million are not welcome (unless they are in arbitration years and viewed as worth a lot more - ie: Escobar). Either you are a scrub (sub-$3 mil) or a star ($20+ in value) or you better expect to be traded.

We'll see soon enough if AA will pay full price for a star (Fielder/Darvish). Or it would be nice if he'd go out and find a way to pry King Felix from Seattle without losing all our prospects.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 03:54 PM EST (#248623) #

If it meant getting an extended King Felix, I would LITERALLY trade all of our prospects.  We've already seen how quickly AA can rebuild a farm system, even with the new parameters I trust our scouting to get us back on track in 2-3 years.

Of course it is far more cost effective just to sign Yu.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 04:14 PM EST (#248625) #
"I don't know why people want to sign oft-injured players, like Harden and Bedard. This is not best value. "

for me, the reason I like it is because (in the cases of Bedard and Harden) if they are healthy they are a huge asset, if they are not, we have arms we need to look at anyway.

by contrast, if you sign, say, Jason Marquis - his upside is mediocre, yet you have enough invested in him to make you hesitate to pull the trigger on bringing in Hutch or McGuire.

-----------------
" the general idea that anyone who asks tough questions about the new talk about "parameters" (after the FO's previous hints about significant payroll increases, becoming a mid-tier team like Anaheim, etc) is automatically accused of "negativism" - instead of, say, healthy skepticism."


it reads as "oh lord, here we go AGAIN"

Why, for instance, are people expressing "healthy skepticism" about the "We can spend $120 mil" comment, and NOT expressing healthy skepticism about the "I have parameters" comment?

both came from the same management group, why is one more subject to doubt than the other?



subculture - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 04:33 PM EST (#248626) #
Not intended at you Tamra (as I agree with most of your posts), but frankly I don't care too much about either the $120M or the 'parameters' at this point.  If AA can build a contending team on a ___ (fill in blank)___ budget, whether it's Tampa Bay's or the Yanks, I don't really care as long as he does.  So far he's shown the ability to significantly improve the farm system while also transforming the ML club into a younger team with more upside.

There are no guarantees despite of this, but if this young and talented team starts to produce on the field and become an obvious contender, the fans and media will support the team more (Toronto hasn't had a contending team in years in any sport) and if AA REALLY TRULY doesn't have the ability to sign a guy like Fielder or Yu today (debatable), I believe he will at that point in the future.  In fact I believe that almost EVERY organization who has developed a good young team that is only a piece or 2 away from winning it all, is able to get the funding from their owners (playoff $$ talks, as well as increased revenues).  The hard part is getting to that point where you are legitimately close enough to contend, and I believe AA is taking us there....


John Northey - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 04:52 PM EST (#248627) #
FYI Toronto has had contending teams in some sports. The lacrosse team (the Rock) won its championship in 1999, 2000, lost in finals in 2001, 2002, won in 2003, again in 2005, and 2011. They have had crowds of 19,000+ at times - selling out the ACC. Never have understood why the media ignores them so much as, while I'm not a lacrosse fan, I do get curious and if they were on TV more I'd probably watch and might become a fan.
smcs - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 05:12 PM EST (#248630) #
I was trying to say that if Aramis was signing a deal like that it's a reasonable FA market[.]

Or Aramis Ramirez isn't that good and got vastly overpaid by a team desperately looking to save face after losing out on a true slugger in his prime. It's not often you can lock up a mid-30s player who doesn't stay healthy, can't play defense, is a dead-pull, fly-ball hitter, who hasn't hit well outside of his former home park in 5 years and is losing his power. But when you can guarantee them $36MM, you just have to do it.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 05:36 PM EST (#248631) #
Darvish must be signed if only so that Jerry can make the 1-6-3 call.  "Darvish knocks it down, whirls and fires it to Escobar and back to first for the twin killing". 
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 05:45 PM EST (#248632) #
pubster, that's a great post, and clever use of the <sarcasm></sarcasm> tags, but I'm afeared that WAY too many Jay fans actually feel that way!
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 05:47 PM EST (#248633) #
Mike, we can only assume that Boomer Berman has already trademarked Yu "Whirling" Darvish.
Paul D - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 05:48 PM EST (#248635) #

I don't know why people want to sign oft-injured players, like Harden and Bedard.   This is not best value.  

If you want to win on a small budget, you have to take risks.  Mostly they won't work out, but when they do, you're gold.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 06:31 PM EST (#248638) #
"frankly I don't care too much about either the $120M or the 'parameters' at this point. If AA can build a contending team on a ___ (fill in blank)___ budget, whether it's Tampa Bay's or the Yanks, I don't really care as long as he does. So far he's shown the ability to significantly improve the farm system while also transforming the ML club into a younger team with more upside. "

+1

------------------------
on an unrelated note, this quote on MLBTR intrigues me:

"Some teams prefer Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler to Yoenis Cespedes, Jim Callis of Baseball America writes. Had Soler been available in the 2010 amateur draft, Callis expects he would have been a top-five selection. Callis compares Soler to Royals outfield prospect Bubba Starling and says he's more talented than Leonys Martin of the Rangers."

I hadn't heard praise at that level before - if dude is actually that good then the jays pretty much HAVE to be working on him, right?
Spifficus - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 06:40 PM EST (#248639) #

Mike, we can only assume that Boomer Berman has already trademarked Yu "Whirling" Darvish.

Ugh. I now have his "Back! Back! Back! Back!" running though my head. I really have to make sure I'm drinking something next year (even paint thinner) instead of watching the HR Derby.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 06:55 PM EST (#248640) #
You know what the best part is? I've thrown out a ton of guys who can be had on 1 and 2 year deals, and those provoke zero reaction/discussion from you guys.
------------------
If we're gonna do this, lets do it right:

All free agents listed on MLBTR-

Catchers: we have no opening.

Second base: no option even comparable to Johnson

shortstop: no option comparable to Escobar, unless you want to waste money on Rollins

Third base: might only be one option ever worth a major league contract, certain not one you want over Lawrie

Right: obviously

Center: Crisp is the best option, I'll take it on faith you'd rather be playing Rasmus.

first base: whatever the doubts about Lind, whoich of the available options inspires confidence he can be counted on to do better?
Fielder? Obviously. But I don't think you will find many people here arguing against signing fielder, even if some of us would worry about the out years.

Cuddyer? market seems to be about 9-10 mil a year for him.
Willingham? something similar likely.
I could see an argument for either - but both will be getting paid for their age 33-35 seasons and that really doesn't seem like value for a team that's beuilding for the long term.

You could mention both of them in regards to LF and DH as well - I'll get to it later.

Otherwise - who? I don't see a more reliable option than Lind.

DH: I suppose you could argue we could have thrown 25 million for 2 years of Ortiz I wouldn't necessarily call you crazy on that, but that's off the table and the obvious counterargument is how much flexibility will that cost you, not only in dollars but in roster management. None of the rest of the likely options hit better than EE did.

LF: as I've noted before, if you are prepared to write off the idea of developing Snider (in particular) and Thames, then go out and throw some money at Beltran. You WILL (assuming he stays healthy on the turf) win more games in 2012 if you do. If the price is worth it to you.

BUT if the argument is "the Jays are too cheap to sign Beltran" you have to be confident in saying that the kids are a none-factor and the ONLY reason not to sign him is money. I don't see how you can make that argument confidently.

Here, again, you can argue for Willingham or Cuddyer, but with the same caveats - can you be sure they were not signed on account of money, or on account of the kids?

For the sake of length, I'll break this into two separate posts
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 06:56 PM EST (#248641) #
Go for the single malt, spiff. Much tastier than paint thinner and your stomach lining will remain nice and pink, or whatever colour you currently have it.
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 07:22 PM EST (#248643) #
'Why, for instance, are people expressing "healthy skepticism" about the "We can spend $120 mil" comment, and NOT expressing healthy skepticism about the "I have parameters" comment?'

I think it is based in part on history and the factual data (as opposed to dreamy speculation about the future). Here are the Jays' payrolls for the last ten years (courtesy Cot's Baseball Contracts):

2011: $ 70,567,800
2010: $ 78,689,357
2009: $ 80,538,300
2008: $ 97,973,900
2007: $ 81,942,800
2006: $ 71,915,000
2005: $ 45,719,500
2004: $ 50,017,000
2003: $ 51,269,000
2002: $ 76,864,333

Keep in mind that one estimate has baseball inflation averaging about 7% annually over the last 20 years:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/predicting-salary-inflation-for-2011/

In other words, $77M (the 2002 payroll) is equal to about $150M in 2011 baseball dollars. So the actual value of the Jays' payroll over the last couple of years has been about half that of its 2002 payroll. By way of comparison, over the same period:

- The Yankees payroll increased from $126M to $207M
- The Red Sox payroll increased from $108M to $164M
- The Angels payroll increased from $62M to $142M
- Even the Rays' payroll increased from $34M to $73M from 2002-10, although it dropped again to $42M last year

Now, we know that money isn't everything in determining playoff appearances. But as another Bauxite (can't remember who) has set out in more detail, it sure can help increase your odds (especially when coupled with savvy management, as was the case under Epstein in Boston).

I'm not saying that money isn't everything, and if AA can win on a shoestring, more power to him. I also recognize that the organization has significantly upped its commitment to spending on scouts and amateur players - a wise developmental move in my view.

But in terms of big-league payroll, the Jays have been slowly drifting out of the mid-tier of baseball spenders (probably the lower end of that tier, with the exception of 2008), and are now mumbling about parameters and increasing spending when the fans start to come out in greater numbers (in contrast to the Angels' "build it and they will come" approach). Ultimately, this may or may not impair the Jays' playoff chances, but in my opinion, on the whole, it probably will.
TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 07:28 PM EST (#248644) #
Starting pitchers-

the parameters are, according to Alex, a mid-to-top end starter. Bottom end guys simply block the kids.

Available guys who might fit that description:

Roy Oswalt - I for one would be all for this IF i was out on Darvish. We don't know how this will go down until the bid is awarded on Darvish and the losers look elsewhere. I have, however, heard the argument that he wouldn't hold up in the AL East. personally, I don't see why not. He will be 34 though and you have to wonder about how many years you have to commit here.

Rich Harden - if he can stay healthy, I'm sure we'd all be on board. I'd be pretty shocked if AA wasn't in regular contact with his agent.

Edwin Jackson - ERA+ over the last 4 years of 106, for comparison Jesse Listch had a 118 in his first two seasons before injury. He'd be a mild upgrade at #2 (assuming none of the current folks bust out) but how many more wins would that produce?

Javiar Vazquez - has always sucked in the AL East, will be 36, and thinks of retiring - plus Marlins are a pretty obvious bet to retain him if he does want to pitch.



bullpen: Alex has stated bluntly he WILL be adding to the pen so I'm not shuffling through these scrubs to analuze it. My guess is there will be trades as this crop is mostly unimpressive.



finally, there's the bench.

Backup catcher is filled so I'll ignore that;

Reserve outfielders - lets take it for the sake of discussion that you are unhappy with both Davis and Francisco and are willing to pony up a few million to make this position better. Who, among the guys who won't be starters for anyone, fit that description? We want OBVIOUSLY better here, not ifs and maybes:

1. Andruw Jones - frankly you can't touch him unless the Yankees tell him for sure they don't want him back, and there's no reason for them to not want him back.
2. Luke Scott - can handle LF, at best, defensively...and you want your backup to do better than that.
3. there is no #3



so, let's summerize -

We can sign Fielder, admitted. Otherwise we can gamble on a couple of aging guys who are apparently better than Lind right now, but not "difference makers" and we can toss aside a couple of promising kids in order to sign a very good but aging outfielder.

Bench wise, there's really just the one upgrade option and we'd have to take him away from the Yankees...to be a part timer (how many games more, really, do we win by having Jones over Francisco? how many would we have won last year to have had him over Patterson? not enough to make the playoffs)

Ultimately, except for Fielder, all these have legitimate reasons not to that go far beyond "we just don't have the money.

Likewise, on the pitching - it's just as legit to say "Oswalt is too old" as it is to saw "he costs too much" - it's just as legit to say "Harden can't stay healthy" is "He costs too much" - it's just as legit to say "Jackson isn't that much better than Alvarez (or McGowan) as it is to say "He costs too much."

In short, once you get past Fielder and Darvish you assume facts not in evidence if you assume the only reason they failed to act was a "crap budget"
TamRa - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 07:43 PM EST (#248645) #
"Ultimately, this may or may not impair the Jays' playoff chances, but in my opinion, on the whole, it probably will."

I can see the argument - and don't dispute it - which says "$25m per for Fielder and $15m per for Darvish and you sit on $110m in 2012 with a legit chance to make the playoffs."

If they did that I'd be ecstatic. Over the next six years (control of Darvish) they should be as good as any team around - IF Lawrie, Rasmus (or his successor) JP/Travis, Snider/Thames hit like we all expect they will...if Morrow/Cecil/Alvarez/Drabek/Hutch/somebody - actually 2 somebodies in that crowd - step up and be the pitchers we all think they will be...

then yeah, the team will be hell on wheels.

But what if they don't?

What if we need to go out and sign another really good outfielder? what if Escobar turns into Alex Gonzalez at the plate? What if Lawrie (for instance) just can't stay healthy? what if none of the young pitching steps up to the level we need?

Basically, we've got 5 or 6 years of 2008

I don't expect that would happen but if it did, the team is screwed. the fans simply give up at some point. Alex gets paid to think about THAT possibility too.

and I'll say again - if it were me, I'd do it. but I'm not so enamored with my own opinion (shocking i know!) that I'm willing to take it as a given that Alex wants to and Rogers won't let him.


Where my real disagreement with what I term negativism is, though, is NOT with the complaints that we don't go all out and land those two - my complaint is with the mindset that says, for instance, that getting one of the best young high upside closers out there is still a sign of Rogers being cheap because that guy just so happens to make a lot less money than they could have spent on free agents who were little, if any, better at the job - and that complain registered in full knowledge of what happened with not just Ryan but Myers.

If someone wants to gripe about Fielder, hey, e my guest - I have no beef with that. if someone wants to gripe that (for instance) having Francisco on the team instead of Jones is a sign of them being cheap, that, to me, is just grouchy-old-man inability to be happy about ANY thing.

Ultimately, Jones isn't going to put you in the playoffs, and I for one refuse to believe that the maybe $1 million more you have to spend to get him is even a blip on roger's radar.

when you get down to griping about incidental stuff like that, you are not being analytical, you are being a wet blanket.
Spifficus - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 07:50 PM EST (#248646) #

A couple of random thoughts on the payroll info, Greenfrog...

Were the Angels really a "build it and they will come" model? They won in 2002, and that seemed to be one of the catalysts for that franchise as much as anything else. I'd say they used money to try to solidify that success, which seems to be more the Blue Jays MO (if you have a guy you want to keep, like Bautista, Romero, Lind and Escobar, spend to lock em up, and keep searching at the other positions).

How have the Jays' revenues gone since 2002? The Yankees (YES and the new-new Yankee Stadium) and the Red Sox (NESN and putting seats in every conceivable nook at Fenway, and charging an organ to get one) have maximized revenues in astounding ways. The Rays didn't see the anticipated bounce in revenues from winning, and have clawed their payroll back.

92-93 - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 10:11 PM EST (#248653) #
The team's starting 1B and DH are Adam Lind & Edwin Encarnacion. A good team would make that a platoon and have another bat in the mix. Carlos Beltran fits that mold well, and so did Josh Willingham & Aramis Ramirez. But if you're too worried whether Aramis Ramirez can post 2.75 WAR per year over the life of his contract like scms is, adding a free agent to augment the offense probably isn't for you.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 10:14 PM EST (#248654) #
The last time I read a TamRa megilla it was explaining to me why Vernon Wells might opt out in 2012.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 10:15 PM EST (#248655) #
Tomorrow at 3 PM EST Yu will know which team has bid the most for his services.

I suspect the winning team will be in for a shock. I understand (no - I can't produce the links - but I have seen them referred to) that Yu will want a $20 million PER year contract or he'll just go back to Japan. I understand this is being talked about in the Japanese press.

$60+ million to win the post + $120 million MINIMUM ($20 million for each of the 6 years the winning team will own him).

$180 million for SIX years - $30 million a year! IF - Pujlos is worth $254 million for 10 (at the fairy tale age of 31) IS Yu worth $30 PER for 6 at the age of 25?

I really think the guy might end up with this. As to him going back to Japan - in three years he's a free agent and I suspect - if he keeps up his spectacular work for the next three years - he'll get near that $30 million per year and he'll get to keep 100% of it (minus Uncle Sam's share).

So - What will the winning bid be? Who will make it? What contract will he end up with?

I say: 79 million, the Yankees, 6 years 110 million. (I haven't even had a drink so far today either...)

John Northey - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 10:32 PM EST (#248657) #
If the Yankees are insane enough to bid $79 mil for posting and pay another $110 over 6 years then they can have him. That works out to $31.5 mil a year or more than has ever been paid per year to any ballplayer ever.

Now, a creative approach could be to sign him for 10 years (ideally most being options based on health) so a posting fee could be amortized over 10 years. Then the contract would go from $10 mil a year to start, climb to $20 mil by year 6 and up to $25 or so by the end. You'd get his age 26-35 seasons, or the prime of his career (theoretically).

Of course, if it was my money I'd probably just keep building from within. But if I had millions in the pocket maybe I would go nuts... sigh, if only I could find out how I'd deal with having a few hundred million.
smcs - Tuesday, December 13 2011 @ 11:46 PM EST (#248660) #
But if you're too worried whether Aramis Ramirez can post 2.75 WAR per year over the life of his contract like scms is, adding a free agent to augment the offense probably isn't for you.

You are the one who said that it was a reasonable contract, and then later said that that comment wasn't meant to portray that you wanted the Jays to sign him to that contract. His contract with Milwaukee (along with Gonzalez' deal) smacks of an owner and a GM saving face in the wake of backing out of the market for Prince Fielder. I simply believe that he won't be worth the contract that he was handed. If the Jays were to have signed him to that contract, there was a very real possibility that he would become a designated hitter who could not hit.


Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:03 AM EST (#248661) #

Alex has found out just how much the type of Starter he wants is going to cost.   Example: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/dbacks-acquire-cahill-breslow-from-as.html  Cahill:  http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cahiltr01.shtml and Breslow: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/breslcr01.shtml only got Parker: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=parker002jar , Cowgill: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=cowgil001col , Cook: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=cook--001rya and $200 K -$300 K.   What is Gio Gonzales: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml going to cost?

I can see Travis Snider, Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil as trading pieces this off season, but I don't think A.A. will pay it.   I think he'll wait to see if he get's Darvish, before trading any prospects for a Starter.

Ricky Romero, New Acquisition, Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, Dustin McGowan with Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villanueva and Luis Perez, Joel Carreno as Backup in case of Injury.   The AA kids from last year (2011) should be ready by late this season (2012) or early next season (2013).   Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil can be expendable.

Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, Eric Thames with Rajai Davis and Ben Francisco as Backup in case of injury.   Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra are the first of the heirs for these positions.   Travis Snider can be expendable.

Thomas - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:42 AM EST (#248662) #
His contract with Milwaukee (along with Gonzalez' deal) smacks of an owner and a GM saving face in the wake of backing out of the market for Prince Fielder. I simply believe that he won't be worth the contract that he was handed.

To me it smacks of an owner trying to upgrade the two weakest spots in his lineup. You can argue he did it suboptimally, by not targeting Reyes or Rollins, but Ramirez was the best 3B out there and Melvin signed him to what looks like a pretty reasonable contract, to me. I haven't heard good things about Ramirez's defence, but he's had an OPS over .870 seven of the last eight seasons. The one year he didn't, it was widely reported he struggled with nagging injuries from the previous season.

He is probably a 30-run improvement over McGehee and that's a huge upgrade that isn't easy for Milwaukee to replicate. I think it's a signing worth making if you're a team that has a short-ish window of contention with Greinke and Marcum in the fold for one more season and then may be forced to rebuild somewhat. If I'm Doug Melvin, I'd make this signing too and accept the risk that in 2014 I have Aramis Ramirez at 1B hitting to a .770 OPS.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 01:32 AM EST (#248664) #
I've been thinking about Darvish.

In the unlikely event we're first past the post - I honestly think he's going to want so much we don't sign him. In a way - I'd rather not win the "post" than win it and then not be able to sign him - I can't help but think that would drive too many of our fans over into insanity (I realize that for many of them insanity is just a tiny detour from their normal mental state).

What would be acceptable is if the Yanks win the post - as I suspect (or possibly the Rangers) - and then they can't get Yu to sign. That wouldn't drive our fans crazy - just theirs - and as we all know they're all very close to insanity already.

I'm really concerned with how much Yu will want (from what I've heard) - I can't help but feel that whoever wins the post will eventually feel it's turned into a curse.

At least the posting fee is refundable. Ironically, the only way out might be if his Japanese team "kicks back" some of their "posting fee" to the team that wins so that they can afford to sign Yu. Our Japanese Iranian friend could become a Chinese curse.

Shane - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 02:34 AM EST (#248665) #

 "The team's starting 1B and DH are Adam Lind & Edwin Encarnacion. A good team would make that a platoon and have another bat in the mix. Carlos Beltran fits that mold well, and so did Josh Willingham & Aramis Ramirez. But if you're too worried whether Aramis Ramirez can post 2.75 WAR per year over the life of his contract like scms is, adding a free agent to augment the offense probably isn't for you." 

  Again, what's the sense of bringing up Ramirez? He's not going to sign with anyone to not be a 3rd basemen. This semantic game you like, doesn't work with him. I agree about combining Lind & Encarnacion. Adding another good bat would always have been good. Anything beyond numb ideas of having five possible outfielders if their names are Davis and Francisco. But, i've never had use for Lind, though I see why he's been kept around, but for me he's had more than enough excuses made for while he's been around this long. And he has some brand new ones to help him survive into '12 already. Between him and Encarnacion it's already been grumblegrumble**Napoli***grumblegrumble a tad disapointing, but I understand the thinking.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (every once in a while, whatever this software package is, it sure can be frustrating)
Kelekin - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:46 AM EST (#248666) #
Re: Darvish. With all this talk of the Jays, Rangers, Red Sox, and Yankees...I honestly believe the two teams with the most payroll flexibility to pull this off are Washington and Seattle.  Seattle obviously has had a big asian market, and with Milton Bradley coming off the books, even with all the arbitration/minimum salaries, they are at their lowest payroll in the past decade.  Imagine a rotation with Hernandez, Pineda, and Darvish...sick.  Of course, in reality, offense is their biggest concern - but they could very well sign Darvish, and then trade away a couple of their other pitchers for some upgraded bats (although still not top tier).

Washington - let's be honest.  Washington is willing to spend for a 7 yr, 126 mil contract on Jayson Werth.  They have a lot of payroll flexibility the next two years, and I could see them trying to make a huge splash like this now that their draft expenditures are going to be capped.

Landomar - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:14 AM EST (#248667) #

Fielder and Darvish are arguably too risky to sign, and if the Jays feel that way, then I can understand that.  If we have some more money available right now, however, then going after Beltran is something that I think makes a lot of sense (if he could be had on a one or two year contract; three years maximum, and if it takes three years, then I'd be less interested).

Last season Beltran was one of the very best hitters in the game, and he's been generally awesome for his entire career.  His only down years since establishing himself have been 2010 and 2005 (and in both of those years he was still solid but not great).  In general, I think a Beltran signing could possibly provide the perfect mix of short term benefit and long term flexibility. 

Beltran would likely be a large upgrade in left field for us over the short term.  If he's willing to DH, that would be even better, as it would really help out with our overall 1B/LF/DH picture (the positions where I think we have the most flexibility and the best opportunities to improve our expected production).  Thames and Snider are interesting young players, but I wouldn't "block" Beltran for either of those guys.

85bluejay - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:19 AM EST (#248669) #

I think that Darvish to Washington makes sense  - I expect Yankees/National/Rangers to win that bid.

I like Beltran very much but I don't think his injuries will hold up well on artificial turf.

I don't like the price I hearing for Gio Gonzalez and I hope the Jays pass unless the price drops - while I would part with 2nd line talent like McGuire/Jenkins/Jimenez in a package, I would say no to high upside talent like Gose/Marisnick/Syndergaard/Sanchez/Nicolino/D'Arnaud  - Gonzalez in the AL east seems more like a 3/4 guy and he's not making the Jays a contender and he's unsigned and about to become expensive.

IF the Jays have some money, I may try to buy the young talent some time, if the price is right with Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano (need the cubs to eat some salary)  

So far,I'm not disappointed in the offseason and will remain patient as I favour the Texas model - I hope we keep our high upside talent except if  high upside talent is offered in return.  

jerjapan - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:26 AM EST (#248670) #
The last time I read a TamRa megilla it was explaining to me why Vernon Wells might opt out in 2012.

I take it you didn't read TamRa's last 2 posts then, because she does convincingly refute your arguments in them.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 09:22 AM EST (#248671) #
Beltran is interesting.  You could guarantee him a job in right-field, move Bautista to first base and then platoon Lind and Encarnacion as your DH, with both serving useful back-up roles in addition.  The market for Beltran is apparently strangely soft, so a one-year deal with an option for a second isn't out of the question.
Maldoff - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 10:02 AM EST (#248672) #
How about Joe Saunders, who was just non-tendered by the Dbacks?
ayjackson - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 10:03 AM EST (#248673) #
good luck convincing Bautista to play first base.  I think Beltran to split time at LF/DH and dumping some surplus outfielders would be a better play.
ayjackson - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 10:09 AM EST (#248674) #

I'm making a vague assumption that AA knows the "price" for each #2 starter on the market and will wait to see if he wins the Darvish bidding before deciding whether to move on the trade front.

I wonder though, if he is successful in bidding for Darvish, whether he has a middle of the order bat priced out in the trade market.  That's not something we've spoken too much about.

jester00 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 10:13 AM EST (#248675) #

If there is any truth to the Beltran rumors, then the Jays and A's are definitely moving towards a Gio deal.  Dream offseason for the Jays.  Sign Beltran, Fielder and Darvish.  Trade Thames, Snider + for Gonzalez.

Outfield of Beltran/Rasmus/J Bau, infield of Lawrie/Escobar/Johnson/Fielder/JP

Rotation of Romero/Darvish/Gio/Morrow + whoever.

That team is a contender.

Forkball - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 10:25 AM EST (#248676) #
I think Beltran to split time at LF/DH and dumping some surplus outfielders would be a better play.

I'm not sure if it's better or not, but I imagine that's what the Jays are thinking.  I think Bautista is in RF until he clearly demonstrates he can't handle it.

With supposed interest in Beltran, and Quinten before that, it seems the Jays are ready to get some more certainty in LF and probably ready to move Snider in a trade (and Thames in AAA).
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 10:33 AM EST (#248677) #
Based on AA's dealings to date, shouldn't we be assuming that each circulating rumour is evidence that the Jays are *not* in on that particular player?

Although I suppose someday a Jays transaction will take place that was also the subject of a rumour beforehand.
Shane - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:04 AM EST (#248678) #
Right. This notion seems naive to me. Are trade dealings not a two party street? Surely zero off the record talk comes via the Blue Jays org, but while another GM while conducting talks with AA could grant him a likewise hush hush gag order, they are free to do whatever they bloomin' please, and talk away to any reporter they choose like they normally do. Just because Anthopoulos is stoic, doesn't mean the other side is.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:35 AM EST (#248679) #
It is more that AA deals tend to be complete surprises. Who saw the Escobar, Rasmus, or Santos trades coming? I don't recall a single rumour about any of them until the final hours before it was announced. Compared to the JPR days when we had rumours about everything well in advance and annoyed other teams (SF) and our own players (Halladay) with it I think it is a much better situation. Plus, so far, the surprises have been good ones.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:41 AM EST (#248680) #
I am not sure about this...have we decided that Morrow is our 2nd best SP. He is always mentioned with a fair amount of certainty.

What about Drabek? Are we now thinking that he ia a work in progress. That his 2012 most likely is some minor league seasoning and based on those results he would earn a promotion to the ML team.
ayjackson - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:44 AM EST (#248681) #

It certainly wasn't hard to see the Rasmus deal coming.  While I recall no specific leaks, there was plenty of speculation that he wouldn't last in St.L and many (including myself) were hoping a move could be made.

Flex - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:46 AM EST (#248682) #
This isn't the best place to post this, but there's really no other. A great story on the remaking of Anthony Gose that just goes to show how difficult it is to know from stats how a young player is developing.

For instance, why doesn't Anthony Gose have a good two-strike approach? Because the Jays don't WANT him to have one, yet:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2011/12/14/gose_feature/

Fascinating, really.
Shane - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:50 AM EST (#248683) #
Oh, don't disagree on that John. I don't think one trade minus the Halladay deal, was seen coming/revealed in the press prior to happening. But obviously Anthopoulos is in trade inquiry talk a tremendous amont, so these names we hear, some of them obviously have to have been discussed, or the names dropped, and that obviously comes from the opposite sides of isle. It is not possible that all of these rumors of names mentioned are invented by reporters.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 11:54 AM EST (#248684) #
It certainly wasn't hard to see the Rasmus deal coming.  While I recall no specific leaks, there was plenty of speculation that he wouldn't last in St.L and many (including myself) were hoping a move could be made.

But that's the thing, there were no specific talks about Rasmus coming to any specific team.  We were only hoping he'd come here, but there were no reports that Toronto and St. Louis were talking at all.  It only became public as the trade was actually happening.

And it was like that for the Morrow trade, Wells, Lawrie, Escobar, Santos as well.  The only trade under AA's regime that did have a long lead-in time was Halladay.  Everything else was just a sudden bolt out of the blue.
Ron - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:02 PM EST (#248685) #
have we decided that Morrow is our 2nd best SP. He is always mentioned with a fair amount of certainty.

AA has gone on the record and said he would like to add a front of the rotation type starter which means bumping Morrow to the 3rd slot. Frankly based on the results, Morrow is nothing more than a sexier version of Jesse Litsch. It's amazing how a high amount of K's can change the way people feel about you. Every Jays fan has Morrow listed as the number 2 starter right now while Litsch is a complete afterthought despite producing similar numbers.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:09 PM EST (#248686) #
Given AA wants an ace to go with Romero and if you assume Darvish goes elsewhere what aces are potentially available?

I dug into this awhile ago and came up with pretty much Felix Hernandez and that was it. Going on the assumption it had to be a team out of contention and the pitcher had to be a clear #1/2 starter (ie: 120+ ERA+ is not unreasonable to expect).

For example, last year's top 10 in ERA+ for the AL were...
1. Verlander (DET) 170
2. Weaver (LAA) 158
3. Wilson (TEX) 152
4. Sabathia (NYY) 147
5. Beckett (BOS) 147
6. Romero (TOR) 146
7. Fister (TOT) 139
8. Shields (TBR) 132
9. Harrison (TEX) 131
10. Gonzalez (OAK) 130

Who on that list is worth getting and available? Gonzalez has been rumoured like mad but his wildness makes me not trust him to keep that low ERA. There were rumours about Shields possibly being available but his high HR allowed rate worries me (1.2/9 IP lifetime) plus Tampa is known for getting every bit they can.

Guess we'll see what happens. Shields would land under the 'who saw that coming' category though.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:10 PM EST (#248687) #
I agree that AA is secretive, and I definitively like it.
So him mentioning a big bat, very good SP & 8th inning bullpen guy, kind of surprised me. But he did say that everyone wants that kind of bat & SP.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:20 PM EST (#248688) #
Just for a laugh...does anyone want to comment on the "Book of AA".

For example:- We don't comment on any specific players mainly FAs I guess. And if it makes sense then we will do it. I know these are weak examples.

So hopefully more creative Bauxites will have a go at it.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:21 PM EST (#248689) #

This is just personal opinion but I feel that the reason that most of our deals come as a surprise is that AA makes leaks a dealbreaker in negotiationsn (i.e. "this is my offer, but if any rumour gets out the deal is off"). I think that's also why we've been involved in so many rumours recently: Other GMs/Agents are calling his bluff only to find out that he's dead serious. Its a great strategy as long as he doesn't let it prevent him from improving the team (i.e. he should still be bidding on Yu and Fielder and Beltran). God I want any one of those guys.  Just one more star and one more pitcher on this team and I'm satisfied.

Incidentally I just noticed the Red Sox copying our blueprint with their deal for Melancon.  I think we got the better deal but he's still a low cost closer with decent rates leaving them to potentially spend money elsewhere. It also gives them leverage if they are negotiating with bigger name closers.  In the end I think that  Francisco Cordero and Ryan Madson (and Chad Qualls/Kerry Wood for that matter) aren't going to get anywhere near what they expected.

zeppelinkm - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:21 PM EST (#248690) #

Wow, Flex. I really enjoyed that article, thank you for posting. It makes me even higher on Gose. Like, considerably higher. There is no way he maintains the same strikeout rate if he stops trying to hit home runs when down 0 - 2 or 1 -2 in the count.

And he seems extremely coachable, as he appears to have taken every bit of advice/coaching straight to heart and implemented in game. 2012 will be an exciting year to watch him.

bpoz - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:28 PM EST (#248691) #
Hitting in front of Bautista is supposed to provide a huge benefit.
So who has been fattening up his stats over the last 2 years.
In this spot KJ's trade value should go up, if we wanted to trade him. Would JPA benefit enough in this spot. Thames?
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:34 PM EST (#248692) #
"I take it you didn't read TamRa's last 2 posts then, because she does convincingly refute your arguments in them."

Oh, I bet she does it as well as scms explaining why Aramis Ramirez's contract isn't reasonable. Rogers has trained you folks well. Josh Willingham, 3 years/21 million. Can I get the apologist company line on why Willingham would have been a bad investment? Because I'm sure there is one, just like there is with every free agent suggested.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:39 PM EST (#248693) #
Ron, I was mystified that the Jays gave JoJo Reyes 20 starts last year while relegating Jesse Litsch to the bullpen, a guy who had success as a starter in the AL East before his Tommy John surgery. We'll see what kind of backup SPs the team takes fliers on, but I wouldn't be surprised if Litsch gets one last kick at the can.
Shane - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:41 PM EST (#248694) #

 Can I get the apologist company line on why Willingham would have been a bad investment? Because I'm sure there is one, just like there is with every free agent suggested.

Is this an arguement between you and others of ways Rogers is cheap again? I assume your just using Ramirez & Willingham as examples x and y of why Rogers is cheap, not that you wanted either signed. Correct? Beltran to rotate through OF/DH would be interesting on a 2 yr deal. Not to have Bautista move to 1B just to appease Beltran, the worse fielder and non team superstar leader.

John Northey - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:50 PM EST (#248696) #
Interesting article at http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_yu_darvish_japan_posting_bids_mystery_121411 about Darvish. Sounds like his current team is cash poor and desperately wants to have him go via posting.

Given that, and given that teams are allowed to give cash from the posting to the player (afaik) then I could see a sneaky way to do it. Rogers has to be one of the most cash-rich teams in MLB so a giant posting can be paid if needed. So imagine a $100 million posting fee, then a 6 year deal for $20 million = $120 million total = $20 mil per year but just $10 mil goes to the team in Japan (rumours are they'll accept that little). Now _that_ would be gaming the system (as the $100 mil then wouldn't count against the team in payroll calculations) and would probably force a change to the posting system (which Beeston has openly said he hates).

Trick would be to get an agreement with the Japanese team first (unofficially of course) so that it could be done and a quiet talk with Darvish's agents as well via the Japanese team (thus avoiding tampering rules).
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 12:51 PM EST (#248697) #

92-93 Shouldn't you perhaps wait this offseason before passing judgement? I'm as suspicous as the next guy about IF we're going to spend money, but its ridiculous to use the current offseason as proof that we won't ever spend money.

I'm not paying Albert or Papelbon that money, I honestly prefer Escobar to Reyes long-term, and CJ Wilson took 20 million less to stay out west.  In my opinion there hasn't been a single free agent signing thus far that the Jays should have been in on. Do you honestly think that the Santos deal was a bad one? What if we turn around and sign Ryan Madson (who now costs less because we have Santos as Leverage).  Heck, tomorrow we could wake up to find that we won the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, or signed Prince Fielder to a 7 year deal, or dealt Thames and Jenkins for Wandy or all 3.

Its not April 1st, its not even February 1st yet and there's lots of options still out there. 

John Northey - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 01:02 PM EST (#248698) #
Josh Willingham would've been pretty good. $7 mil a year for ages 33/34/35, plays LF and can cover RF or 1B if needed and has even caught 15 games (2005 the last time he did). 121 OPS+ lifetime, at or better for each of the past 3 years.

Instead AA traded for Francisco, also a RH hitter, but has played CF before. A 103 lifetime OPS+ as a backup/platoon guy and probably getting around $1.5-$2 mil this year

Willingham you sign if you want a guy to play everyday in LF. Francisco you get if you need a solid backup. I'd rather have Willingham but odds are he would not be happy if moved to DH or forced to share time in LF with Snider or Thames or someone else. Odds are, as a free agent, he'd have looked at Toronto's situation and said 'no thanks' even if AA offered more.

Williamham and Ramirez both hit me as guys the Jays really wouldn't chase as there isn't a slot for them unless you are putting kids on the bench.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 01:08 PM EST (#248699) #
Very interesting piece, Flex. I wonder if this explains why he reportedly didn't run out a bunch of groundballs, and if we need to discount his offensive #s because of it.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 01:10 PM EST (#248700) #
Shane, John: Josh Willingham is a better hitter than both Encarnacion & Lind. He wouldn't be taking ABs away from kids.

whiterasta80: See, here's the thing. I have been calling out Rogers since the moment Beeston took over the job and started lying straight to the public. This has nothing to do with me being impatient about what's been doing done this offseason.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 01:28 PM EST (#248701) #
IF I've decided to supplant Snider/Thames in LF, I am after Beltran, not Willingham or Cuddyer
Ron - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 01:28 PM EST (#248702) #
Ron, I was mystified that the Jays gave JoJo Reyes 20 starts last year while relegating Jesse Litsch to the bullpen, a guy who had success as a starter in the AL East before his Tommy John surgery. We'll see what kind of backup SPs the team takes fliers on, but I wouldn't be surprised if Litsch gets one last kick at the can.

If Litsch gets another chance to be a starter, I don't think it's with the Jays. At the end of last season, Farrell listed the guys who could be in the rotation next season and Litsch wasn't even mentioned. Beside the lack of K's (career wise), I think his bad body clouds the perception of what kind of pitcher he is.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 01:35 PM EST (#248703) #
Adding a bat shouldn't supplant the prospect you choose to play everyday in LF; it should relegate Lind into a 1B platoon with EE who also backs up Lawrie, the DH, and LF.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 01:52 PM EST (#248704) #
"Josh Willingham, 3 years/21 million. Can I get the apologist company line on why Willingham would have been a bad investment?"

The argument is not that he was a bad investment, the argument is whether the ONLY explanation for not signing him is cheapness. You are basically just paralleling the Geoff Baker argument. Which amounts to this: "Because rogers is making tens of millions of dollars, they are morally obliged to throw great steaming piles of money at the major league payroll. That reason - that they are so stinking rich - is the only reason necessary."

Now, rightly or wrongly, Alex doesn't believe that's the best way to build a consistent winner, and frankly, history demonstrates the truth of that. Imported all-star teams seldom succeed on an extended basis.

Consider this: the Yankees payroll was near the top of the league, but not on a whole different plateau for the eight seasons between 1995 and 2002, and they won four World Series, with the majority of the contribution coming from internally developed players. since 22002 their payroll has steadily broken from the pack and climbed off the top of the chart - and since 2004 they've APPEARED in only one.

there are plenty of other examples.

Now, it's certainly POSSIBLE that Alex is simply a lying shill covering for a cheap ownership group - but it's AT LEAST as credible that he's not.
----------------------------------------------------
"The last time I read a TamRa megilla it was explaining to me why Vernon Wells might opt out in 2012."

Which whole argument was predicated on IF he returned to the original form he was getting paid for. He's been alternating quality years and disaster years for six years now. Opting out after his last season would have been insane, but if his 2011 had looked much like his 2010, then he'd have been the best available outfielder in this years free agent market, or at worst second to Beltran. it was also predicated on his staying in CF (which seemed his destiny in Toronto) and when the second best option is Coco Crisp, he'd have had a lot of leverage.

Not enough to swing $21mil a year, of course, but a longer deal might have been worth more. Before you laugh, consider what Jayson Werth signed for at the same age a year ago. Laying aside the career year he had in his contract year, he had been running pretty much the same offense that Wells put up in his (alternating) good years.

It wasn't at all a crazy idea - it simply depended on his putting up a good year in 2011 (offensively and defensively) - he didn't.


(all that said, if I'd known when I wrote it that he'd be with the Angels by the time he had to choose, that would have been a factor for staying put too)
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 01:58 PM EST (#248705) #
The playoffs are a complete crapshoot. If anything the Yankees are proof that you can, indeed, pay for a winner.

And yes, the only reason AA doesn't add a bat to this lineup is because he doesn't have the payroll room to do it.

smcs - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 02:06 PM EST (#248706) #
Adding a bat shouldn't supplant the prospect you choose to play everyday in LF; it should relegate Lind into a 1B platoon with EE who also backs up Lawrie, the DH, and LF.

Unless that bat will only sign if he can play LF.
Jonny German - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 02:19 PM EST (#248707) #
I have been calling out Rogers since the moment Beeston took over the job and started lying straight to the public.

Honest question: How did you know Beeston was lying the moment he took over the job? The previous time he'd been with the team they spent lots of money.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 02:30 PM EST (#248709) #
You're right. It probably took me a few weeks to realize he was lying about finding a new replacement for President by Christmas. And yes apologists, I understand that he may have earnestly believed he was looking for someone else and was subsequently swayed by the Rogers brass to keep the job for himself. Or else you're just drinking Kool-Aid.

Wilner said it best a few months ago (he said this in reference to trying to attract premier FAs to Toronto, but it's fairly applicable across the board) : if you want something sold, Paul Beeston is the man for the job.
Spifficus - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 02:32 PM EST (#248710) #

And yes, the only reason AA doesn't add a bat to this lineup is because he doesn't have the payroll room to do it.

Or he prefers to use the payroll room he does have at the moment (given current revenues and reasonably expected growth) in more efficient ways. Money isn't just for free agents in their decline phase; it can also be used to lock up high upside talent through their peak years (see Romero, Escobar, Lind - not all of them work out), to allow the flexibility to take on dead weight at the trade deadline to get the talent you want (the Rasmus-Tehan-Tallet-Miller deal), go after high priced amateur talent (ok, not now, but up until this year), and so on. Free agents are the sugar rush for the offseason, but overdo it and soon the payroll packs on pounds around the waist, leaving the team old and flabby looking.

Shane - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 02:52 PM EST (#248712) #

@ 92-93

Okay, so you were advocating a Willingham signing. Again, I have always had little to no use for building with/around Adam Lind, so at it's soonest possibility for Anthopoulos to either platoon him more in combination with another solid bat coming in, or if AA ever finds a better "core" player than Lind, i'll be exceedingly happy that day too.

Man, you and  Stephen Gray/"Fullmer Fan" sure have zero issue just calling people liars when it suits you. Wow. Regardless of the fact that some of those people you call liars, etc are incredibly instrumental in creating the successful Toronto Blue Jays that you've been able to passionately follow and love as you do for 30 years.

92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 02:56 PM EST (#248713) #
When it suits us, or when it's easily provable that they have, indeed, lied?
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 02:59 PM EST (#248714) #
And no, I wasn't advocating a Willingham signing, lest I get lectured by scms about all the reasons why Willingham is actually a piece of trash. What I advocate is improving the offense through a short-term pickup that the team's scouts approve of. Whether that was Beltran, Willingham, Ortiz, Pena, Ramirez, etc. I can't tell you, but entering a season with Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion as your everyday 1B/DH will mean the 4th season wasted under Beeston's watch.
ayjackson - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 03:09 PM EST (#248715) #

92-93's comment style is full of absolutes, superlatives and conceit, but if you peel back 80% of that brash tone, there are certainly some good points made.

In the interest of sanity of posters and readers alike, it might be beneficial to refrain from challenging the detail of his statements, but rather the underlying sentiment.

92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 03:31 PM EST (#248718) #
The hyperbole is the only way to get a response, ayj. I appreciate that you get it, though.

Spifficus, I'm going to quote Mike Wilner from his blog on the State of the Franchise event with Beeston in January of 2009, after the team let Burnett walk and was scheduled to cut payroll from 100m to 80m, and hopefully you'll glean my answer from it.

"First, Beeston. The “interim” president (he doesn’t expect to have a successor in place before Spring Training, and the list of potentials is still over a dozen) loves the fact that the Jays are in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, believing that kind of competition brings out the best in his team. He said that the Jays’ goal is to eventually be on an even footing with those powerhouses as far as payroll goes, and that Toronto is a big enough city with the fan support to be able to make that happen, but in order to get there, the team has to win first. Beeston said that it’s important for the Jays to be competitive every year, and that he believes in the farm system, in the young pitching and in the front office. He hopes that Ricciardi will stay on as General Manager for “years to come”, but also said that the onus is on J.P. and Cito to get the Jays to win this year.
Beeston said again, as he did on the Fan last month, that it didn’t make sense to him for the Jays’ payroll to be at $100 million. That if it wasn’t going to be $120 million, it may as well be $80 million, which is where it has settled. He did say, however, that taking a step back in payroll this year might allow the Jays to do more financially next year, when they get Shaun Marcum back and young players like Travis Snider, Adam Lind, David Purcey and Brett Cecil (to name a few) have some more big-league time under their belts and the team should be in a far better position to contend.
Beeston said that he’s excited about the season to come, and that he expects it to be a lot of fun – because after all, isn’t that what games are supposed to be?"

Now, many of you are new to this conversation, but I'm not. I remember arguing about this with people, and 3 years later we are in the EXACT same spot we are today: justifying not signing players by saying it's better to have that money for when our current young talent needs it. You'll notice, however, that 80m quickly became 65m, as it again didn't make sense to be spending 80m if you weren't going to be spending 120m. And so it goes...
Shane - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 03:42 PM EST (#248720) #

@ayjackson you make him sound like a wolverine hopped up on rabbies, Eminem, and Jersey Shore. BE-WARE! Fun.

@92-93  "I can't tell you" sounds snarky, but perhaps you meant it as, "I don't need to tell you/convince you". Anyways, again Beltran would be interesting as a DH/LF/RF guy. Be fun to know what combinations Anthopoulos has maybe been playing around with the last few weeks. Saying a "4th season wasted under Beeston's watch" is I assume spoken in a moment of excitement. He appointed Anthopoulos the big chair, so it hasn't been all bad. Coulda gone with someone else worse.

Spifficus - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:03 PM EST (#248722) #

Well, considering that, as payroll dropped, the wins remained in the same range, all the while gaining flexibility and developing a core of talent not yet in their prime... I'd say his point was proven, no?

Personally, I'm a "build the core through youth, then augment when you near critical mass" sort, so I'm not in any rush to see the team give away its fexibility on a Pujols or Fielder, or whatever (though Beltran has appealed to me for a while, if the deal is 2 years).

As for the tenor of the comments, their absolutism, shock-jockish, and didactic nature, I just find it tiring for a world to exist without subtlety, where every move is filtered through the lens of the cheap. Labeling groups as apologists and implying they can't think for themselves distracts from your arguments, not enhance them. I mean, if you like your shtick, so be it, but the grinding negativity of it and others like it are one of the reasons I find myself coming here less and less often. It's a shame it has to come as the Blue Jays become a more interesting team, but so be it.

melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:23 PM EST (#248723) #
I am surprised there is no Yu Darvish thread. I would love to see a thread where we can post our guesses on which team will win his negotiating rights.

Just for fun I would like to suggest that the following challenge be posted but until then I would like to suggest guesses go here.

Name the team and the posting amount. Person closest gets bragging rights.

Rules:
Answers should include winning team name and amount (ie one line responses without explanation will make it easier to scroll through guesses)

All guesses must not end in the number 0.

Alll guesses must be in by 8pm tonight (might be wishful thinking but it is possible winner could be announced this evening)

Less than 45 minutes until the bids are officially due!!! I am so stoked!
Jonny German - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:24 PM EST (#248724) #
If the Jays get Darvish I can't see why they wouldn't also add a legitimate first baseman and thus field a team with a serious chance to contend in 2012. If they don't get Darvish then maybe there's some merit to laying low for one more year. Maybe. But I doubt it.
melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:25 PM EST (#248725) #
Cubs $56,990,005
John Northey - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:39 PM EST (#248726) #
So since 1994 the Jays have been floating. Basically the team has stuck near the 500 mark (+-7 games) with exceptions in 2004 and 1995.

1994: hangover from 2 WS years and strike hits

1995: New GM, Ash
2001: Final year of Ash after a peak of 88 wins and a payroll that was competitive ($76,896,000 - Sox and Yanks at the $110 range) after a $30 mil jump vs 2000.

2002: JP Riccardi takes over, starts slashing until payroll down below 2000 level in 2005.
2009: Final year of JPR after payroll peaks at $97 mil in 2008 (Sox at $133, Yanks at $209 mil). 87 wins as high as the team gets.

2010: AA takes over, payroll drops to $70 mil in 2011. 85 and 81 wins so far for this crew. Promises of payroll climbing in the near future.

So I'd say AA has, like the previous GM's, about 8 years to make good, expecting to see a payroll jump at some point but probably not yet. If he does better than the last two we'll see 90+ wins. If not, he'll be sent away and another person will come in and knock down payroll and start over again.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:43 PM EST (#248727) #
Rangers $67,502,011

So, when does the outcome get announced? Tonight? Tomorrow?
John Northey - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:44 PM EST (#248728) #
Heh. Neat idea. I'd guess Darvish will go for $52,000,025 to the Rangers in an effort to win that (#&*!@ WS title and not be the Buffalo Bills. #2 would be Washington for $60,000,006 in an effort to finally get fans to notice (8th place for attendance is their peak, in year one, 13th/14th place in the NL for the past 5 years).

Still dream of the Jays doing something weird to win - like my $100 mil bid with a minimal per year deal for Darvish while his old club gives him the bulk of the posting fee.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:50 PM EST (#248729) #
Yanks - $81,250,249.22
Nats: $73,250,250.00
Orioles: 71,657,243.00
Rangers: $69,254,542.00
Cubs:$56,990,005.00
Jays: 47,245,432.00 AND an 8" x 10" signed glossy of Brett Lawrie

Winning Bid: Jay's, the 8x10 was just irresistible.


melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:56 PM EST (#248730) #
The announcement can come anytime after 5pm but probably not today. They have until Dec 20th to accept the bid and announce it (they have 4 business days).

MyLengacy are you serious thinking Yankees will bid over $80 million or r u being sarcastic?
Mike Forbes - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:57 PM EST (#248731) #
Gonna say that Washington wins it with 55.5 million. Really would make my day if Toronto won the bid though.
melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:57 PM EST (#248732) #
Ps Over the past hour Bakt officially announced that they will not bid
melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 04:58 PM EST (#248733) #
Ps Over the past hour Bakt officially announced that they will not bid
subculture - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:04 PM EST (#248734) #
As for the tenor of the comments, their absolutism, shock-jockish, and didactic nature, I just find it tiring for a world to exist without subtlety, where every move is filtered through the lens of the cheap. Labeling groups as apologists and implying they can't think for themselves distracts from your arguments, not enhance them. I mean, if you like your shtick, so be it, but the grinding negativity of it and others like it are one of the reasons I find myself coming here less and less often.

+1

It's like Fox "News" (they are just 1 example ) vs The Daily Show....  incredible that a comedy show is a neutral source of information while many mainstream outlets only report in extremes.  Not trying to start a political thread here either, my comment is not about right or left wing, but about extremists on either side seeing the world in black or white with full hysteria.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:06 PM EST (#248735) #
melondough - catch your breath - whoa...

It's not Mylengacy and I assume Bakt is Balt...as to me being sarcastic - sarcastic, me, never!

melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:16 PM EST (#248737) #
MYLEGACY u made me smile because I noticed both errors after I had already typed them but thought a third straight post to correct it woils be over kill. Normally I am pretty close to spelling all words out correctly but this darn IPad does not help things! Thanks for reading my posts so carefully. So is your NYY guestimate for real?
Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:20 PM EST (#248738) #
ab-so-toot-ly
subculture - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:21 PM EST (#248739) #
@92-93,

How do international signings like Hechevarria and numerous others (including a failed but significant bid for Chapman), and always being near the top in $$ spent on drafts fit in with your AA can't get any money theory? 

I am NOT a fan of Rogers (nor the new conglomerate MLSE), but I still believe that AA can get the resources he needs - he has that much credibility with ownership. 



melondough - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:36 PM EST (#248741) #
 I am shocked that the Red Sox did not bid (accroding to Boston Globe).  Thanks to Gerry I guess I should make Yu comments on the new Post which I will from now on.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:38 PM EST (#248742) #

A.A. wants a front-of-the-rotation type Pitcher to follow Ricky Romero in the Rotation.   On the best teams, 1s and 1As are interchangeable with the Ace being the "senior" Pitcher.   Yu Darvish can become that guy, the 1-1A Starter.   Brandon Morrow's stuff is very, very good, except it's all hard and straight as an arrow.   His control however, is better than A.J. Burnett's was, so he should be a 1-1A Starter at some time.   Morrow can "get it" at any time, but just how long do we wait - we could very well be contending this year without the pitching regression last year. 

If Yu Darvish's contract demands are excessive, there's a few things he should know.   1) If he will sign, offer 6 years w/wo options @ $15-ish MM per year.   He can be a free agent at 31, seeking a 4-5 year deal @ $15-ish MM per year.   Earning a MLB pension after 10 years, and $150.0 MM- $165.0 MM in Baseball earnings (not including endorsements, deals, etc.).   2) If he will not sign, he's unlikely to be available again for 3 (?) years.   (All 3 years in JPL, it's unlikely he would make $15.0 MM per year, or more than $10.0 MM per year).  As a free agent, he gets the $20.0 MM per year contract for six years.  As a Free agent again at age 34, he's done like burnt toast, maybe $5.0 MM-$7.5 MM per year, over 1 or 2 years.   No pension, $125.0 MM - $127.5 MM total MLB earnings - with the money in JPL earned added, possibly $150.0MM - $165.0 MM, less in endorsements, etc. and less goodwill.

Why is 92-93 so enamored with old(er) baseball players, unrequited passion for J.P. Ricciardi?

Colby Rasmus is in his 1st year of arbitration and as such is under the teams control for 3 more years.   Anthony Gose still hasn't a clue, of what to do in a 2-strike count, so he's still a work in progress.   Jake Marisnik is hard on his butt and looks to be a better player.   Let's find out what Rasmus can really do.   His 162 Game avg.:  http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml is satisfactory enough to free up Gose for a trade.   I can't see an upgrade here worth the cost.

Left Field is an adventure, but not worth a bigger expenditure, unless you're going for it.   We have Travis Snider, Eric Thames, Rajai Davis and Ben Francisco under contact for 2 positions (LF and 4th OF).   They are just "holding the fort".   We'll have Moises Sierra in AAA (he of the "gun for an arm") with Marisnick, Knecht and Crouse in AA, charging strong.   Makes Snider almost expendable.   An upgrade is coming.   I just can't see spending a lot of money for a small to not that better an increase.

Brett Lawrie we keep, no upgrade necessary.   J.P. Arencibia we keep, I don't know how good the heirs are, he hits HRs well.   No upgrade necessary.   Yunel Escobar makes $5.0 MM per year for the next 4 years.   Behind Hechavarria (who still  doesn't hit) are a lot of Shortstops, who can really develop in 4 years.   Allows A.A. to trade Hech if necessary.   No upgrade necessary.

Beyond Kelly Johnson, is an abyss.  Our next 2B is probably a SS or Ryan Schimpf (gulp).   I'd give Johnson 3 years.   The Free Agents available suck, and the trade possibilities are not that much more of an improvement, but they will cost a lot.   Do we need an upgrade, if so who?

Adam Lind has a great contract http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/toronto-blue-jays_05.html .   He will be in much better shape this season.   Unless he's being talked up for a trade, he's our 1B next year.   I can see going after Fielder, the monies spent will be fine.   It's the term, 8-10 years that gives me pause.   A.A. may be waiting out the market for a shorter-termed deal.   But it's not a priority for him.    And I'm not forgetting E.E.

 

 

 

92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 05:51 PM EST (#248747) #
Trust me Richard, I'd love for them to sign Darvish, Fielder, Reyes, etc...it's just I've resigned myself to only asking for 1-2 year deal players so that nobody can complain about compromising flexibility in the always precious future. Those players tend to be proven guys in the early to mid 30s.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 06:54 PM EST (#248763) #
Things are relative.

JP was unlucky. Too many injuries and being forced to overpay V Well.

Ash also had injuries & damaged goods issues. Also a big contract to C Delgado.

AA seems to underpay...eg the EE signing at a lower amount. Team options. Creative trading...Teahen.

I think when AA can control things, he generally over achieves. Sorry I cannot think of what he controls just now. But individual performances he cannot really control, rookies, year to year fluctuations Lind, Hill, CV. And FF vs Napoli.
It is interesting that AA tried to delay the Bautista signing, but Bautista would not go for it. But he signed Romero mid year. However he can opt out of Romero but not Bautista.
jerjapan - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 07:15 PM EST (#248768) #
As for the tenor of the comments, their absolutism, shock-jockish, and didactic nature, I just find it tiring for a world to exist without subtlety, where every move is filtered through the lens of the cheap. Labeling groups as apologists and implying they can't think for themselves distracts from your arguments, not enhance them. I mean, if you like your shtick, so be it, but the grinding negativity of it and others like it are one of the reasons I find myself coming here less and less often.

Spifficus, it'd be a shame if a Bauxite with as much insight as you show in this response stops posting.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:23 PM EST (#248789) #
" You'll notice, however, that 80m quickly became 65m, as it again didn't make sense to be spending 80m if you weren't going to be spending 120m. And so it goes..."

Of course, they also spent something like $15-20 mil a season the last two years on player acquisition as well.

which was directly responsible from going to the (near) worst system in the game to the best (or very near it)

When those guys are quite possibly the core of a winning team in, say, 2016 no one will remember what you said in this thread (and others) in 2011.

(and no I'm not saying we won't be contenders for another 4 or 5 years)
--------------------------------------------

"Saying a "4th season wasted under Beeston's watch" is I assume spoken in a moment of excitement. He appointed Anthopoulos the big chair, so it hasn't been all bad."

Indeed.

Here's a list of players that are not in the Blue Jays organization that were not here on the day since Beeston (again) took over (not all inclusive)

Brett Lawrie
Colby Rasmus
Yunel Escobar
Kelly Johnson
Brandon Morrow
Kyle Drabek
Sergio Santos
Travis d'Arnaud
Jake Marisnick*
Anthony Gose
Drew Hutchison*
Daniel Norris*
Adeniy Hecheverria*
Noah Syndergaard
Justin Nicolino
Aaron Sanchez
Deck McGurie
Marcus Kencht
Adonys Cardona*
Matt Dean*
Kevin Comer*
Roberto Osuna*
Dicky Thon*
John Stilson*
Christian Lopes*
Wilmer Beccara*
Dewal Lopes*
Mark Biggs*
Jario Labourt*

*in the organization specifically because of a willingness to spend above average money.

I'm not willing to call these "wasted years"

when you are in the ditch, as the team clearly was after Ash and, sadly, after JP -pause for digression -

(the one place I agree with Baker is the idea that they under-served the team while they waited out the owners of the dome - I agree Rogers wasn't interested in winning until at least 2005 and more likely 2006. so it's not an invalid point that from the advent of interbrew - was that 1995? until 2006 those were pretty much just thrown away years that everyone ought to be unhappy about. JP was caught up in that and my personal opinion is he sold his soul a bit there. By the time they let him act he was so sick of spinning his wheels that his gears were slipping a bit. there has to be some reason that a guy that was described as "everybody loves the guy on a personal level" when he was hired turned out to be a notorious ass before he was fired.

- anyway, the point being, I'll concede the argument that Rogers "threw away" 3-4 season in order to manipulate the stadium situation and that fact alone illustrates they are not above manipulating the team for their own interests.

But, from that day - say the signing of AJ - to this has only been five years.

Five years is NOTHING in baseball time in many ways. A really good prospect drafted in 2006 is in most case unlikely to be an established major leaguer in five years.

Then you consider that this five year includes the end of one era AND the beginning of a completely radically different agenda, the idea that you take a team that didn't work, however talented, at the major league level and a farm system widely disregarded and get into the playoffs in your second season in charge (AA's second season) is, frankly, setting the bar FAR too high.

If someone says Beeston wasted a year or two by not firing JP the day he got back and setting up the new world order that AA is running right then - ok, I'll even give you that.

But if you want to argue the last two years were "wasted" just because they did not leap boldly directly into the playoffs with aggressive free agent signings - I think that's a bit insane.

I wonder, just out of curiosity - if the Jays did win the bid on Darvish, and signed him - and therefore decided the time was right to sign Fielder....would you (92-93) be willing to say "I guess is was wrong"? Or would you still bang the drum about 4 years of wasted opportunities?
TamRa - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:39 PM EST (#248794) #
Just for reference, here's the biggest deals signed since the end of the 2008 season among players who were free agents:


2. Albert Pujols, $254,000,000 (2012-21)
6. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
7. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)
13. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17)
. . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17)
. . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16)
. . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15)
28. Jose Reyes, $106,000,000 (2012-17)

I could see an argument for Texeria, I guess - same as the argument for Fielder but with both him and CC, you have to do significantly BETTER than these deals in order to pull them away from the Yankees. Albert, of course, we don't know yet.

The rest of those? I don't think there's a strong case we should have went after them. This is just in reference to the idea that if you are not a contender it's a "wasted year"

signing Anduw Jones instead of Corey Patterson doesn't make you a contender from a .500 team. You need BIG money to do that.

and if you go back before 2009 the examples are much starker. how many of us would have been ecstatic to have signed Johan Santana?
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 08:56 PM EST (#248799) #
Only a Rogers apologist could possibly lump a team's international signings as being "in the organization specifically because of a willingness to spend above average money". Here's the reality: every single team in baseball spends money internationally. The Jays spent 4.18m internationally in 2010 and were only 9th in draft spending in 2011. They spent 20k more than BOS despite having way more upper picks. This idea that they've been dominating the amateur talent market is simply not true.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 09:02 PM EST (#248801) #
And yes, I'd still bang the drum for missed opportunities. I'll never be convinced Doc orchestrates his way out of town had Beeston not shown up and started cutting the payroll. It's impossible to know how history would have played out had Burnett been brought back and efforts were made in 2009 to contend.
Shane - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 09:16 PM EST (#248802) #

Well, really what did the whole '09 season matter? Zero effort was made in '08 to capitalize on that stronger club. Any further Ricciardi builds seem to be running on fumes anyways, For whatever, whoever reasons, they didn't follow through in '08. The arm injuries, Rios was soon to tank completely. Hill would be up and down, Rolen and his issues. Ricciardi needed to go eventually, a rebuild was either necessary or a good idea, and Roy Halladay deserved to finally do want he wanted guilt free, unencumbered. He more than put in his time.

Chris DH - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 09:23 PM EST (#248803) #

Off topic but not sure if it has been posted anywhere.  The Jays ended up giving cash as opposed to 3 prospects to complete the Rasmus deal.

http://gregorchisholm.mlblogs.com/

TamRa - Wednesday, December 14 2011 @ 10:45 PM EST (#248808) #
to be clear, if I'm an apologist - and I might be - it's for AA, not for Rogers.

I'm not at all disputing Rogers is capable of cheaping out, I specifically stated i believe they did between 2002 and 2005.

I'll also note they basically left JP a lame duck in 2009 which was a waste.

My claim is that AA makes a compelling case and, to this point, his results have matched his originally stated purpose - and there's been nothing which has happened that was inconsistent with what he said the first month on the job would happen (other than tweaking a few policies like the whole business with Boston/Farrell)

it's in THAT context that I'm saying that while it MAY be true they are BSing us about eventually kicking up the major league payroll into the upper tier, I don't believe that (theoretical) lie proves anything about why Alex traded for Santos instead of signing Madson (for example)

MAYBE there's a connection, maybe not.

The jury is still out.




But the real bottom line for me, is what I've been saying on this site and everywhere else from day one:

to me fandom is about "hope springs eternal"

while I freely admit sometimes the jays acquire a guy i jst don't like and have no faith in (Jon Rauch for the latest example) as a general rule, i'm always looking at the team as "what's possible if everything comes together?"

Take Brandon Morrow. A lot of people look at Morrow and say "classic over-rated under-achiever" - I look at Morrow, and his path so far, and think "Any given year this guy could bust out and contend for a Cy Young Award"

Obviously you can't say that about every player, but I'm always looking for a plausible reason to. As a fan, I NEED to.

I ENJOY thinking Snider could jump up and hit 40 homers, I LIKE thinking THIS might be the year morrow wins 18 games, I take pleasure in imagining McGowan will stay healthy all year and be the talk of the league

I never understood the mindset that looks at those three and says "Obvious bust", "overrated" and "won't make it out of spring training"

In like manner, i just don't relate to the idea of looking over the next, say, five years and saying "It's obvious to me our skin-flint ownership has every intention of screwing over the fans with a mediocre team on the field which has no chance of getting out of fourth place"

To quote Jayne, "When does that start gettin' fun?"




So yeah, wave me off as an apologist if you like, but in my book I'm simply a positivist. As I've said before, on the day I decide the Jays are a sucky team and not even trying to get better and they will willingly wallow in 4th place for the foreseeable future - that's the day i walk away from not just the team but the whole sport.

There's no pleasure in that.
bpoz - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:13 AM EST (#248838) #
One thing that I did not like in 2011 was that players who were not playing well continued to get playing time.

I don't mind this happening to a prospect. I want prospects Drabek & Reyes to hopefully develop and I don't mind taking our lumps in the process.
But veterans like FF & Rauch, I objected to. But they were worth a potential draft pick. So OK I guess.

I was happy to see Teahen was not granted this favor. He only got regular playing time when Lawrie got injured. Teahen hit very well then, 10AB 4H & 3BB to end the season.

For 2012 I see every hitting position having a decent regular, except maybe LF. So hopefully they get the playing time rather than someone that may not be better, just to increase his trade value.
TamRa - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 07:46 PM EST (#248907) #
"One thing that I did not like in 2011 was that players who were not playing well continued to get playing time.

I don't mind this happening to a prospect. I want prospects Drabek & Reyes to hopefully develop and I don't mind taking our lumps in the process.
But veterans like FF & Rauch, I objected to."


You know what's wrong with that line of thinking?

Francisco's ERA on May 29 was 6.59
Over the remainder of the season it was 2.43

If you'd had your way, we'd never have seen that good work

Octavio Dotel:
May 9 - 7.20
Balance - 2.66

Encarnacion:
May 28 - .562 OPS
Balance - .869 OPS

that's just this last year.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 15 2011 @ 11:20 PM EST (#248927) #

Yeah TamRa!!!!

The Batters never mattered that much after 2009.   A.A was upgrading as many positions as possible as fast as he could effectively.   And it was Bautista's September that showed the changes he'd made to his game, that guided A.A. that offseason.   Considering the Halladay trade was only going to Philly and nowhere else (both NYY offer and LAA offer were insults), Alex did very, very well in that trade.  

Toronto's draft policies under A.A. were Pitchers  and Shortstops until someone at another position else was better.   He's upgraded at the MLB level: SS, CF, 1 SP, 3B, 2B, 1 RP; in just two years, while being fiscally responsible.   The Minor System went from 29th to Top 3 in just two years.   The Organization was underachieving and he's created one of the best in the business in just two years.

Now we people complaining about not spending $15 -$25 MM more, each of those years, for people seldom more than .75 to 1.0 win better than the player A.A chose.   The total possible net gain: zero playoff berths.  

This year, he's not finished.   He's got a 2B/SS Bench player - Luis Valbuena - for cash.   I think he's a upgrade on Mike McCoy.   (Incidentally the 3 PTBNL in the Rasmus deal became cash).  He's got a 26 year-old Backup Catcher - Jeff Mathis - (highly prized by his former team) for a AAAA LHP Brad Mills who wasn't in our future plans.   He's got a 28 year-old Closer - Sergio Santos - under a very team friendly 6-year contract, for less money than 3 of 4 years that a 31 year-old Ryan Madson would want.   He gave up value, one of his stud pitching prospects in AA, but that's his reputation, Value for Value.   He got a 30 year-old, average Outfielder - Ben Francisco - for a 26 year-old LHP-RP Frank Gailey (just making AA in last half of season 5.70 ERA).  

And it's just December 15th.  Here's the top 50 list: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/2012-top-50-free-agents-1.html .   There's still top Free Agents left - #2, #5, #6, #7, #9 to point out just a few.

bpoz - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 05:15 PM EST (#249008) #
Thank you for responding to my post TamRa & Richard SS.

Your facts are correct TamRa. Richard if I understand you correctly, you are praising AA for his recent moves and that he still has time to accomplish more. I too am optimistic. We will know almost everything about the 2012 roster by mid Jan by my estimate.

TamRa, I cannot back off my criticism of FF & Rauch. FF was the best closer candidate based on stuff, however May 29th was 2 months into the season or almost 1 third of the season. My gut tells me that he cost us something. Would it have been enough to make a difference in a contending season, I do not know. Actually I think it would. And I stick by my criticism of Rauch as the 2nd choice.
I am OK with EE and did have high hopes for him. I never want to see him at 3B because of his errors, but IMO he was good at 1B & DH.
I agree completely with you on Dotel. He had a slow start but overall I think he had a very good season and contributed well to both teams he played for.

The question is how does the manager balance patience & impatience in the roles of his players. A slumping hitter can be moved down in the lineup, demoted or given a few more off days. SPs can go to the pen or get demoted after a certain amount of time. RPs can be demoted or take on a lesser role.

And I must reluctantly say that giving a pitcher a chance to work it out like FF & Rauch is also something to consider.
TamRa - Friday, December 16 2011 @ 07:29 PM EST (#249018) #
"The question is how does the manager balance patience & impatience in the roles of his players. A slumping hitter can be moved down in the lineup, demoted or given a few more off days. SPs can go to the pen or get demoted after a certain amount of time. RPs can be demoted or take on a lesser role."

One thing for fans to remember is that the manager has far more info on which to base his decisions than we do when we second guess. He has a much more professional insight into WHY, for instance, Frankie is struggling and how realistic it is to expect an improvement.

And, of course, he did take him out of the closer role for a while. it just sucked for JF and for us that the stop-gap (Rauch) wasn't much better.

And as for what Francisco cost us:

During the first two months of the season (through the may 29 cutoff) he made 16 appearances;

He inherited six runners and none scored so we'll lay that aside;

He gave up at least one run in seven of those appearances;
The Blue Jays went 4-3 in those seven games;
In the three loses...

April 20 - Jays were down 5-2 when he entered the game;

May 20 - Jays and Astros tied 2-2 going into the ninth, he gave up three runs while recording only one out;

May 24 - Jays up over Yanks 4-3 going into the home half of the ninth, Francisco gives up 2 runs and the loss.

So, during his awful 2 months Francisco was directly responsible (laying aside non-boxscore things like defene) for 2 losses.

There were three other such occasions on the course of the rest of the year.

That's five in all - for comparison Mariano Rivera cost his team a win on four occasions in 2011.

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