Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Santos for Molina- What is your Opinion

We talked recently about having bauxites register their opinion of a trade so that when the second guessing starts we have a record of opinions at the time of the trade.

Please discuss the specifics of the trade in the dedicated thread, use this one for your opinion, like, dislike, meh?

I will start by saying I like it, take the semi-proven major leaguer over the unproven prospect. That is not absolute but Molina did not profile as a number one starter and the Jays have many pitchers coming.

Posted by Gerry on Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 01:40 PM EST.

Santos for Molina- What is your Opinion | 67 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 01:48 PM EST (#247852) #

Like, but I do like Molina quite a bit. I wish him well.

Matthew E - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 01:51 PM EST (#247857) #

Sad to see Molina go; he sounded like something. But Santos is exactly the kind of guy the Jays can use at the moment. I wonder if this means they're going to go for it in the next year or two.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 01:54 PM EST (#247860) #

My very very first impression was that Molina was a bit too much. Then I checked out Santos and remebered who he was - filthy. Then I saw his extremely cheap contract and controllability. Then I remembered that a lot of scouts ultimately see Molina as a reliever as well.

Now I think it's a very fair trade.

Paul D - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 01:55 PM EST (#247861) #

I like it. I think that the upside for Molina is Santos, and Santos has a reaonsable contract. So the only other question is, could you ahve got more for Molina than they got, and I'll assume that the answer is no.

China fan - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 01:58 PM EST (#247864) #

Like it. To me, it's also very important because it signals that AA is willing to trade a top prospect for a major-league player. Of course he's done it before, to some extent (tossing it some top prospects on earlier deals) but I believe this is the first time he's traded a top-10 prospect straight-up for a major-leaguer. This means, I hope, that AA sees 2012 as a possible year for contending, not just rebuilding.

Also, this small footnote: according to Baseball Reference, the top comparable player to Santos through age 27 is one Thomas Henke....

krose - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 01:59 PM EST (#247866) #

I like the trade. The cost for Santos was high but he is what the team needed. The minor league rosters have multiple good young arms.

Just hope AA does due diligence regarding Santos' arm.

ayjackson - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 01:59 PM EST (#247867) #

Apparently Santos' most similar comparable through age 27 is Tom Henke.

This is a good trade if we spend the value in Santos' deal. Otherwise, we just wasted a top prospect on a reliever.

Original Ryan - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:01 PM EST (#247869) #

I think it's a fair trade. I still wish that the Blue Jays would be brave enough to do away with the whole closer/save accumulator silliness, but I'm not going to win that argument any time soon. I like Santos a lot better than Nathan and Bell.

It hurts to lose Molina, but he's had a grand total of five starts above A-ball. He's not a lock by any means.

Gwyn - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:02 PM EST (#247870) #

I love this deal, I think the Jays underpaid.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:04 PM EST (#247871) #

I like it, efficient use of resources which is our m.o.

Hopefully we can get a good arm to set him up.

Brian W - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:06 PM EST (#247872) #

I think it's a pretty even deal. I love Molina's numbers from last year but Santos has such a good contract that it increases his value. I haven't seen much (any?) of Santos so I'll give it a tentative "like".

Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:06 PM EST (#247873) #

As this is a new way to record our opinions, use this thread for a brief comment and use the other thread for analysis.

Thanks.

Hodgie - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:08 PM EST (#247876) #

I will miss Molina but do like the trade. It was fair and a good re-allocation of resources given the current state of the farm system, not to mention TINSTAAPP. It certainly isn't Anderson for Bagwell.

Wedding Singer - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:10 PM EST (#247878) #

Love this deal - two thumbs up!

85bluejay - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:11 PM EST (#247879) #

I like the trade - look how many pitching prospects fail to make the grade, only a year ago Drabek looked very promising - now that the market is set, it will be interesting to see what Oakland gets for Bailey & Colorado for Street. I especially like the team friendly contract - money available for other needs & his arm is fresh - really liked Molina & wish him well - with Zach Stewart , Sox may have 40% of future rotation.

ogator - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:12 PM EST (#247880) #

There were free agent closers out there that could be had for money, only. Santos has great stuff and may turn out to be an excellent closer but if the Jays had purchased one instead of trading for one, they would have both a closer and Molina. I don't like giving up a serious prospect to save money for a wealthy company.

Moe - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:17 PM EST (#247882) #

A fair trade based on expected value. However, I have a hunch that the Jays will loose this one, but they know Molina much better than I do, so I hope I'm wrong.

rfan8 - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:26 PM EST (#247886) #

I think this is a win-win for both teams - trading from surplus for need.

I remember watching Santos pitch and thinking how nasty his stuff looked on TV.

greenfrog - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:35 PM EST (#247890) #

I like the deal a lot. Santos has excelled as a reliever (and improved in his second year in the role), he has minimal mileage on his arm and the contract is team-friendly (creating flexibility for acquisitions in other areas).

Conversely, Molina is an interesting prospect, and could end up being a solid starter or reliever, but deals like are why you build up a surplus of prospects. The Jays' farm system is still very deep.

Sherrystar - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:35 PM EST (#247891) #

I find it amazing that in today's world of breaking news, insiders, AA still manages to make these trades out of the blue.

And for all those still holding out hope for Prince Fielder... forget it. AA was on MLB radio and said it was not going to happen (as the Jays will not go more than 5 years)

Ryan C - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:50 PM EST (#247894) #

if the Jays had purchased one instead of trading for one, they would have both a closer and Molina. I don't like giving up a serious prospect to save money for a wealthy company.

It's not just as simple as "saving money", because the money you save today could be the money that allows you to get the free agent you need next year, or the year after that. Any time you sign a premium free agent you're going to overpay in dollars and in years. You not only use up part of your budget for this year, but for years down the road for an asset that in many cases becomes unmoveable. By instead acquiring someone like a Santos, sure it costs you a good prospect, but now you have an asset instead of an anchor. Hamstringing his future self is something AA has always been careful to steer clear of.

sam - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:55 PM EST (#247895) #

A good point to note here is Santos is under team control for the same amount of years Nestor Molina is. Whereas we'll be getting six years of ML production, it's unlikely Molina will be ML ready until 2013. As is often the case with young pitchers, it'll also likely take time for him to succeed at the ML level.

Mike Forbes - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 02:57 PM EST (#247897) #

I'm going to say that this is the very first AA deal that I completely dislike. Molina is going to have a better career than Santos.

Beyonder - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 03:07 PM EST (#247901) #

Klaw described the CHisox's return on Santos as "a little light" given Santos's great contract.. Thinks Molina tops out as a mid-rotation guy, and only then if he develops a change-up.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 03:25 PM EST (#247907) #

A win by every measure:

1. Molina now becomes the White Sox top prospect, easily
2. His upside is as a very good mid-rotation starter
3. However, pitching prospects, even the best ones, can ad do fail - the Jays just traded away that risk
4. further, in the very deep pool of potential starters in the Jays organization, Molina had the highest probability in the group of ending up relieving. In that sense the jays traded a probable reliever (just based on roster management) and the Sox acquired a probable starter (given the weaker depth chart) so they got more value than we dealt.

5. Jays acquired a player that they would control for just as many years (potentially) as they would have controled Molina
6. the acquire a player who's quite possibly filling the same role as the player they dealt would have likely filled
7. Said player has already made the leap to the majors successfully and does not come with that "pitching prospects often fail" caveat.
8. The Jays get the "young, cost controlled, long term, dominant closer" that Molina might have been a year or two from now - and they get him now.

As i mentioned in the other thread - my reaction can be summed up like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IO3zEeusKWU

MatO - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 03:45 PM EST (#247909) #

Thinks Molina tops out as a mid-rotation guy, and only then if he develops a change-up.

I thought Molina's developed a terrific splitter. In which case that is his change-up.

Beyonder - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 03:48 PM EST (#247912) #

You're right. Klaw said breaking ball, not change-up. Typing too fast.

Jevant - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 03:50 PM EST (#247913) #

I like. We would probably be thrilled if Molina developed into Santos, and now we have Santos now. Good asset management by AA.

uglyone - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 03:52 PM EST (#247914) #

Why I'm happy:

- trading a good prospect for a good player indicates that AA's timeline for competing has been bumped up. that is good to see.

- trading from a position of depth (young SP prospects) to fill a position of weakness (closer) is always a good idea.

- Despite a shorter track record, Santos' numbers compare favorably with any other closer available this offseason, which might make him the best possible upgrade for our bullpen in pure quality.

- the contract is excellent, and assures us of him retaining good value going forward.

Why I'm not happy:

- While we have great depth in SP prospects, Molina has a chance to be the best of them.

- Molina has quite a good chance to be more valuable than Santos very soon.

- Santos is far from a proven commodity, and could fizzle quick.

Subversive - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 04:10 PM EST (#247918) #

I'm happy with it. This is exactly why you want to have a strong farm system, so you can acquire proven major league talent. There's always the risk that the player you trade goes on to be a star, but if you keep your farm system well stocked, you will always have more of these players.

Spifficus - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 04:19 PM EST (#247921) #

I'll toss my hat in with the Happy crowd. Molina's a good prospect, don't get me wrong (possible mid rotation starters are quite valuable, after all), but Santos is already a shut down reliever. The trade had a cost, especially if Molina fully develops, but is well worth that risk.

sam - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 04:24 PM EST (#247922) #

Re: Griffin's article. I have feeling Anthopoulos probably had a meeting with ownership and Beeston prior to going to Dallas in which they told him that look, no more revenue coming in from revenue sharing means we're going to have to start operating under strict parameters.

It's kind of sad come to think about it, but it really does look like we're going to be shifting towards the Tampa model.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 04:28 PM EST (#247923) #

"It's kind of sad come to think about it, but it really does look like we're going to be shifting towards the Tampa model."

-----------------

far too big a conclusion jumped to far too quickly IMO

Spifficus - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 04:30 PM EST (#247924) #

If we were moving towards the Tampa model, wouldn't we have been more likely to hang on to Molina and promote from within?

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 04:37 PM EST (#247926) #

Guys, this thread is for the thumbs up/down record purposes. The discussion goes in the other thread.

dan gordon - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 04:53 PM EST (#247929) #

I like the trade. Look at how rapidly Santos has been improving in his 3 years as a pitcher.

Brent S - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 05:16 PM EST (#247935) #

Thumbs up. As of today, factoring in salary considerations, I think Molina and Santos have roughly equal value. Each player gives their team something that they need.

raptorsaddict - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 05:51 PM EST (#247942) #

Really like it.

Losing Molina hurts, but the chance to have a low-mileage bullpen ace for the next 6 years at a very reasonable price is too much to pass up. He also might get even better, and I'd wager that over the next 3-4 years he outplays Bell, Papelbon, Nathan and Madson.

Dave Till - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 06:52 PM EST (#247952) #

I like the trade - Molina could be a great prospect, but the Jays have a lot of pitching prospects. They didn't have a closer. They have one now.

eldarion - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 07:01 PM EST (#247955) #

Great trade. Molina is a talent, no question, but a good GM stockpiles assets and knows when to flip them to address an area of deficiency. We have a tonne of intriguing pitching prospects at Low, Single and Double A; they can't all play for the Jays. Flipping a highly regarded prospect for a closer who averages over 13 strikeouts a game and is controllable for six seasons is a shrewd move.

bpoz - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 07:50 PM EST (#247960) #

I like this trade.

RhyZa - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 08:01 PM EST (#247963) #

Hard not to like it, considering how steep the price is for FA closers.

budgell - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 08:10 PM EST (#247965) #

Two big thumbs up.

scottt - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 08:16 PM EST (#247967) #

Excellent. He could become an elite closer.

Ron - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 09:18 PM EST (#247976) #

Fair trade for both teams. A good starter is more valuable than a good closer but no prospect is a sure thing. Molina does remind me a little bit of Marcum though (a very under-rated pitcher). Both teams addressed their need with this trade.

grjas - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 09:21 PM EST (#247977) #

AA does it again. Focuses on the area of greatest need and gets it done leveraging an area of strength (young starters).

Oh yes- " I don't like giving up a serious prospect to save money for a wealthy company."

Damn wealthy companies. Why should they think about profiting from a peripheral business. The horrors!

Let's Occupy Blue Jay Way!

jgadfly - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 10:08 PM EST (#247979) #

Another step closer to playin' with the big boys ... an above average closer - check ... cost control - check ... underpaid - check ... 'outta da blue' - check ... ... N - I - I - I - C - E !!!

rpriske - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 10:17 PM EST (#247982) #

It isn't a good trade... it is a GREAT trade. Santos is good and getting better while Molina is still a pitching prospect and those have a built in unreliability factor...

Magpie - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 10:26 PM EST (#247983) #

Fine by me.

Flex - Tuesday, December 06 2011 @ 11:26 PM EST (#247986) #

Smart move. The Jays know Molina. They decided they could live without him, and got something they needed more.

hypobole - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 12:16 AM EST (#247992) #

Another prudent cost-effective move by AA. I guess that's an "I like".

92-93 - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 12:38 AM EST (#247993) #

I don't think there's any question that from a value perspective, this is a good trade for the Blue Jays.

DaveB - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 02:07 AM EST (#247997) #

Thumbs down, for two reasons. 1. I'm opposed to trading top prospects for relief pitchers unless it's a "last piece of the puzzle" situation. I'm not against trading top prospects, but they should be used to acquire established elite players (position players or starting pitchers) who normally shouldn't be available, or equal value prospects at a position of greater need. 2. They swapped pitchers and in my opinion the White Sox got the better one, maybe not right now but in the near future and for a long time to come. There is obviously a place for Santos. I like him a lot as a budding closer and he should get better. His contract situation is very good and I'm going to enjoy every unhittable slider he snaps into the dirt. But if it took Molina (or any of the Jays' top nine or 10 prospects) to acquire him, I would have passed.

katman - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 02:09 AM EST (#247998) #

So, if I'm Kenny Williams I'm thinking that it's a rich closer market this year. I trade Santos, and sign someone else at similar cost, who will do about as well as Santos did in 2011, and be under control for several years. I get top prospect Nestor Molina, figuring that he'll be in the bullpen in 2012, maybe even setting up my FA closer by the end of the year. In 2013 and beyond, he may evolve into a starter, and by 2014, assuming if both guys are healthy, I probably wouldn't trade Molina 2014 for Santos 2014.

If i'm AA, I'm thinking that we really need a closer in 2012, and Molina isn't ready yet. I still have Hutchison, Alvarez, and others coming up, and Drabek might still turn it all around. I just got a closer with great on-mound defensive skills, to go with a live arm and rising pitching skill (I hope), who can step in NOW, and who doesn't cost me too much long term. Now I'm free to shore up the rest of that bullpen into something useful, and explore options for a top starter.

I think Kenny Williams will be right about Santos vs. Molina in 2014. I know that AA looked at all available closers on the market before making this move, and decided he'd rather have this right now. I like the idea of bringing Santos back to the Jays organization.

I think that in a few years, we'll regret this trade a little. But we'll be able to console ourselves that the extra immediate value was worth the price.

TamRa - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 05:31 AM EST (#248004) #

"So, if I'm Kenny Williams I'm thinking that it's a rich closer market this year. I trade Santos, and sign someone else at similar cost, who will do about as well as Santos did in 2011, and be under control for several years."

Who did you have in mind exactly? there are two guys left you can be reasonably confident in assuming they would match Santos and neither of them is going to give you the next 3 years for under $9 million. In fact, Jon-Friggin- Rauch is likely to make THAT much.

"I think that in a few years, we'll regret this trade a little. But we'll be able to console ourselves that the extra immediate value was worth the price."

If Santos develops as he seems set to, into one of the very elite closers i nthe league, I do not think we'll regret the deal. Not because Molina is likely to fail, though he certainly has higher odds of doing so than Santos does, but because our 2014 rotation is still likely to look something like

Romero
Alvarez
Drabek
Hutchison
McGuire/Cecil

with us collectively puzzled about who loses their spot to make room for Nicolino, Syndergaard, et al tearing up AA.

Molina would look good in that rotation if he hits his ceiling, but it's not like there's a Scott Richmond or a Dana Eveland filling a spot that's a gaping wound.

In short, like every other deal - both could be great, both could suck, or one could suck and the other be great. and our feelings in the out years will be driven by how that set of possibilities play out.

Thomas - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 08:21 AM EST (#248008) #

I issue a thumbs up. I don't think Santos' improvement on last year's stats is a definite. However, there are certainly positive indicators in his lack of pitching history and raw stuff to indicate he has a reasonable chance to improve to an elite reliever and he already has two good seasons under his belt. I like Molina, but given Santos' upside and years of team control, it's a gamble worth taking.

JB21 - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 08:48 AM EST (#248009) #

At first glance my heart sunk a little. Well mostly when I read "Nester Molina". After looking more into Santo's numbers and HIS CONTRACT I deem this trade succesful and AA still a Ninja.

MatO - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 09:43 AM EST (#248015) #

Moderate thumbs up from me. AA's comments seem to indicate that there was a big internal debate about the trade. Sounds like a lot of Blue Jay brass really liked Molina.

John Northey - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 09:55 AM EST (#248020) #

I'm a thumbs up. One prospect for one proven solid ML pitcher is a good trade unless that prospect is ML ready.

Also the rotation, as stated by a few, is buried in prospects and someone had to go. I think back to the Jays of the mid-80's who let a few good prospects go who were blocked (Mitch Webster, an outfielder who would have a 111 OPS+ for Montreal comes to mind, blocked by the Bell-Moseby-Barfield outfield).

Yes, Molina might be very, very good. But he also might be #6 in the depth chart for the rotation or be #2/3 in the pen.

jerjapan - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 12:26 PM EST (#248047) #

This trade is a big win. Trading from strength. keeping the right pitchers with the high profile, trading the mid-rotation guy / reliever with the gaudy stats. cost certainty.

My prediction is that the savings from this are spent on free agents, either this year or next.

spud77 - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 12:47 PM EST (#248049) #

thumbs up. This trade is good for both the Jays and the White Sox.

fozzy - Wednesday, December 07 2011 @ 01:30 PM EST (#248056) #

Thumbs up, it's nice to see our team turn some prospects into performing players, especially a young, improving, low-mileage, cost certain one in Santos. I've seen enough of the Francisco Rosario and Josh Banks and Jamie Vermilyea and Adam Peterson lose all of their value for nothing.

This team has done a good job stockpiling pieces through trades and drafting, it's time to see them put to use, if not at the ML level, at someone else's.

Jonny German - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 11:03 AM EST (#248471) #

Late to the party (was mostly offline last week), but want to record my opinion for posterity:

Thumbs up. It hurts to lose Molina*, but Santos is more valuable to the Blue Jays right now and reasonable expectations are that he will be more valuable to the Blue Jays over the course of his contract than Molina would have been. Both players come with a large amount of risk, but Santos is not more risky than a free agent equivalent and is much, much less expensive in terms of salary.

* I think Molina is the best prospect that AA has traded thus far. I guess the other candidates would be:
Brett Wallace
Michael Taylor
Tyler Pastornicky
Zach Jackson

It's possible that I'm letting hindsight influence my opinion that Molina is a better prospect than Wallace and Taylor were. Certainly all 5 players in this discussion have a chance to claim the title of best player when their books are fully written.

greenfrog - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 11:30 AM EST (#248474) #

Maybe substitute Tim Collins for Zach Jackson? I think Jackson was traded by Ricciardi.

I still like the Santos-Molina trade, but part of me thinks that Molina could have a very nice career, perhaps somewhat similar to Marcum's. I think he might be a better prospect than some mainstream commentators give him credit for.

hypobole - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 11:57 AM EST (#248481) #

I believe Jonny meant Zach Stewart as one of the prospects traded by AA.

Jonny German - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 12:58 PM EST (#248488) #

Thanks hypobole, I did indeed mean Zach Stewart.

greenfrog - Monday, December 12 2011 @ 12:59 PM EST (#248489) #

Oh, that makes more sense. Thanks.

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