At the risk of redundancy, my comments from the other thread:

Sickels's rankings are always worth a read - I really like his site. It seems to be a decent ranking, although one oddity is that Molina is ranked #2 overall, ahead of (for example) Nicolino, Syndergaard, Marisnick and Hutchison. If nothing else, it's fun that Sickels is going out on a limb based on Molina's exceptional year, good arm and great control.

I liked that he had Smith Jr. in his top 25 (#15) - I really felt that he was an odd exclusion from the BB top 30 prospects, given that he reportedly has one of the better pure bats in the system, and decent athletic ability.

I thought his rankings of Gose (#9) and Hechavarria (#18) were defensible, given that each player is still a work in progress offensively, despite their physical tools and defensive skills.

Per Baseball America:

"The Blue Jays have replaced Paddy with Ismael Cruz, who had been with the Mets as their supervisor of Latin American operations and now will be Toronto's special assistant to the GM in charge of Latin American operations. During Cruz's time with New York, the Mets' notable Latin American signings included Jenrry Mejia, Ruben Tejaad, Jeurys Famillia, Wilmer Flores, Cesar Puello, Jordany Valdespin and Juan Urbina."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/11/white-sox-blue-jays-make-international-changes/

Not sure why it's an oddity that Molina is ranked #2 ahead of Nicolino, Syndergaard, Marisnick and Hutchison. Kevin Gray, the writer who covers the Fisher Cats ranks him #1 among the Jays prospects he's seen. Sal Fasano was raving about him on air just yesterday. And in the recent interview that John Farrell did with Blair, it was Molina who got mentioned as a possible future big player on the team (possible closer), not the others.

It's an oddity only in the sense that most observers will rank other prospects ahead of Molina. I would guess that at least a few of d'Arnaud, Gose, Marisnick, Hutchison, Nicolino and/or Syndergaard will come out ahead of him on most top 100 or 200 prospects or Jays top 20 lists. But that's not to say that Sickels' ranking is unreasonable. Molina has a lot going for him and had a fabulous 2011.

"awkward" is a good descriptor for that Arencibia interview.  For a guy just named to the rookie all-star team he sure was awfully defensive and sensitive regarding media criticism.

It's always tough balancing upside and probability.  I think Sickels does a better job of that than BA or BP (who essentially are the same since BP has a former BA writer).

Between Gray, and now Sickels, I think Molina has been the player that may be the most overlooked during the year (or maybe I wasn't paying close enough attention).

Sickels' list is interesting and (as usual) considered.  Personally, I would have d'Arnaud, Marisnick and Gose ahead of all of the pitchers, but that reflects my view of the average development paths of very good position player prospects vs. very good pitching prospects.  At one time, Sickels put pitchers and position players on separate lists.

Molina's career path mirrors that of Shaun Marcum- shortstop to reliever to starter, although his stuff is quite different.  With both, endurance is an issue.  If you wanted to try him as an ace reliever, I wonder what the development path would be.  My thinking would be that you'd give him maybe a month in New Hampshire just to get him acclimated to the role, and then move him to Las Vegas.  You would figure if he can succeed in the role in Las Vegas, he would be ready for the Show.  In this case, the park can work for you in preparing a pitcher for the major league role.

Sickels summary...
A's: 0
B+: 8 (1 borderline A-, d'Arnaud)
B: 1
B-: 8
C+: 8 (4 borderline B-'s)
19 others of note

Last year...
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/11/22/1828748/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2011
A-: 1 (Drabek)
B+: 3
B: 3
B-: 8
C+: 9
16 others of note

2010...
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/12/23/1217661/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects
A's: 0
B+: 3
B: 1
B-: 2
C+: 10
C: 4
19 others

2009...
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/8/686717/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-p
A-: 1 (Snider)
B+: 1
B: 1
B-: 3
C+: 7
C: 7
16 others of note

An interesting bit there. For B- or better you get...
2009: 6, 2010: 6, 2011: 15, 2012: 17
B+: 2009: 2, 2010: 3, 2011: 4, 2012: 8

So for elite prospects (B+ or better) and very good ones (B- or better) I'd say AA is doing his job very well.

For comparison, the Rays have 1 A, 1 B+, 4 B's, 8 B-, 11 C+, 23 others. The Yankees & Red Sox haven't been done yet.

For fun I thought I'd see how far back Sickels went.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/2/11/134213/449
2006: B+: 2 (Purcey & Romero), B: 3 (McGowan, Janssen), B-: 3 (Lind), C+: 9 (League, Marcum, Litsch), C: 3.

2005: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2005/3/9/131613/5159
B+: 2, B: 5, B-: 5, C+: 9

Couldn't find anymore of them.

It is very unusual for Sickels to run through 25 prospects in an organization all C+ or higher. 

Rotoworld's reporting that opposing GMs believe the Cubs will deal Garza. Does this not make all the sense in the world for the Jays?

The cost is sure to be high- the Cubs dealt 5 prospects for him a year ago. But he's AL East tested, still young, and cost controlled for two more years. I'd gladly part with two top 10 prospects and a couple of lesser pieces to have Garza slot in behind Romero.

MLBTR is now reporting the Jays and Marlins aggressively pursuing Bell.  Thoughts? Personally, he wasn't one of my favourite choices, but that's mainly because I think this established closer non-sense is overblown.  I also don't really want to pay him for 3 years, but he's already been turning down 2-year offers.

The one thing I will say with Bell is that I don't believe in the K/9 drop-off meaning anything.  It's a negligible drop-off for a reliever, as his stuff didn't change.  That being said, his career split away from PETCO is 3.61, versus 2.55 at home. 

I rather see us take a flyer on a guy like Lidge and hope one of our younger relievers turns into a closer-type, than pay excess amounts of money for 60 innings a year.

Re: Garza - If the price is right, sure.  He has established himself as a solid #2 pitcher for 4 years.  He'd be a #2 on our team right away.

We're the favorites, but he doesn't want to leave San Diego. Oh great.

From Klaw's espn chat today:

Doug (Phoenix)

I could be crazy, but given that he's coming off a down-year after two very good ones and the perception of Petco, is there a chance that Heath Bell ends up getting undervalued and signing a pretty reasonable deal?

Klaw (1:21 PM)

Not just a down year in stats, but down year in velocity too. That's a real concern.

Note also that Sickels' prospect list would have been fattened even further if Lawrie and Alvarez hadn't barely exceeded rookie eligibility.

Sickels scouted Lawrie in Omaha this year and declared him to be a straight-up A prospect.  (Today, Keith Law declared Lawrie to be the #10 player in the league under the age of 25; only Trout and Starlin Castro (by two months) were younger than Lawrie in the top 50.)

In the comment section to the Top 20 list, Sickels said he would have given Alvarez a B+ or B.  I personally think that the velocity, movement and command on Alvarez's fastball would warrant a B+, but Sickels does value a diverse repertoire.

If Deck McGuire's a B+, Alvarez would be an A or A- in my book.  His stuff and command are excellent.  My major concern with him would be durability.  And that is true of most pitching prospects to some degree or the other.  He did throw 160 innings last year (at the age of 21) and looked very, very good at the end of the year.  I would classify the durability concern as a moderate one. 

A pitcher who still doesn't have a solid breaking ball is not going to be classified an A. 

Ah Jon Paul Morosi, how I wish you were right.

How likely is Fielder to become a DH in a couple of years? The reports already seem mixed on his defensive abilities. I can't imagine he would be thrilled about becoming a DH at age 29 or 30.

Part of me would be excited about landing him, as I think he'll rake for a couple of years at least, but the rational part of me says:

- Good chance he'll start declining offensively within a few years (fangraphs just posted an article on this issue)

- Poor defense that is only going to get worse

- Slow baserunner

- Potentially unhappy ballplayer (and clubhouse) when the manager decides it's time for him to become a full-time DH

- Albatross contract from 2015-19

Reading all this stuff makes me feel like I have been hit by an electrified cattle prod.

New promos - asking "How do you like us now" ?
Answer - so far not very much.

Fashion shows - yeah thats exciting - I love the new blue

Predictions of greatness - over and over again. Year after year. Including the usual Sickels "when I am a right I am a genius and when I am wrong - just forget I said it" LOL

All for a team that hasnt sniffed anything in 2 decades -  and as recently as a few months ago trotted out Riveras, Pattersons and Wises just to name a few.

Lost as many as they won - and was - at best - the classic stereotype of mediocrity and excuse making. Again and again and again.

Stat after stat - WAR after WAR - UZR after UZR  and blah blah blah blah blah.

I guess I just dont get the whole putting the cart before the horse thing.

How about winning - and then doing that stuff.
How about not talking about ridiculous stuff like Sierra pushing anyone - or Hech ready for MLB next year.

How about just winning first and doing the hype BS afterwards and not beforehand.

I find it all in bad taste.

There is a big difference between generating genuine interest - and mass producing BS nonsense.

Maybe just shutting up and getting the job done would be a better alternative.

You think?

First of all, bball12 none of us plays for the jays so none of us has any impact on winning -- all we can do is talk, make arguments and analyze.

You think?

We would have made the playoffs a few times over those years if we weren't in this division. Congrats to Tampa for breaking through, they just have to be abysmal for a decade to do it. I'm proud when we win 85-88 games in this division, something we've done multiple times. That would equal a playoff spot in almost any other division. But that's the breaks playing in the AL beast.

It looks like Heath Bell is signing with the Marlins, 3 years $27M.

Good!

Interesting enough...it's being reported that the Padres will receive the 9th overall pick in the draft with the Marlins moving into #10

 and blah blah blah blah blah.

Pot calling the kettle black.

"Interesting enough...it's being reported that the Padres will receive the 9th overall pick in the draft with the Marlins moving into #10"

Reported by whom?


I would SO love to be validated!!

Sickels didn't do such a hot job with the Jays list last year:


1) K.Drabek A-
2) B.Lawrie B+
3) D.McGuire B+
4) Z.Stewart B+
5) A.Wojchiechowski B
6) C.Perez B
7) A.Sanchez B
8) J.Arencibia B-
9) T.D'Arnaud B-
10) A.Gose B-
16) J.Marisnick C+
20) H.Alvarez C+
21) D.Hutchison C+
22) J.Carreno C+
24) J.Nicolino C+

That guess at a top-10 looks pretty awful in retrosepct, to be honest.

Reported by Mark Polishuk via MLBTR. It's states it in the write up Bell signs with Marlins

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/2/11/134213/449
2006: B+: 2 (Purcey & Romero), B: 3 (McGowan, Janssen), B-: 3 (Lind), C+: 9 (League, Marcum, Litsch), C: 3.

2005: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2005/3/9/131613/5159
B+: 2, B: 5, B-: 5, C+: 9

--------------------------------

Those make interesting test cases for the proposition that most prospects, even ranked prospects, don't make it.

In 2005 he listed 20 guys and 4 panned out to at least a reasonable degree (League, Hill, Marcum, and Lind) and one other still might (McGowan); 4 others did a little something (Purcey, Adams, Gross, and Chacin) and 2 others got a little more than a cup of coffee (Jackson and Banks)

Then he had Janssen among the "guys to watch" but that was the only hit among eight names.

Jamie Vermilyea a B-? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he was a much more generous grader in those days.

---
For the 2006 list he did well on six guys (Romero, McGowan, Janssen, Lind, League, Marcum, Litsch) and Purcey and Banks are still there, the rest are either cup of coffee (Ray, Thigpen) or complete fail.

there was no list of others to watch at that link. it's fascinating that in 2005 and 2006 they were discussing...how well McGowan would hold up after his injury, lol. Six straight years of asking that question!

So just spitballing, those two lists would put you in the 20-30% range of having the guys you rank actually pan out (although obviously sometimes it's the #18 guy instead of the #4 guy who makes you look smart)

And yet it's darn hard for me to look at the 2012 list and resign myself to the idea that only 7 or fewer of those guys will pan out to any remarkable degree.

Quote:

Sickels didn't do such a hot job with the Jays list last year:


1) K.Drabek A-
2) B.Lawrie B+
3) D.McGuire B+
4) Z.Stewart B+
5) A.Wojchiechowski B
6) C.Perez B
7) A.Sanchez B
8) J.Arencibia B-
9) T.D'Arnaud B-
10) A.Gose B-

~unquote

Huh?

One guy is looking like a superstar, another established himself as a regular major leaguer, another became the #1 prospect this year and is drawing raves, another seems set to be a full-time major leaguer next year and reached the majors and did well this year, and one other is still in his top 10 this year. And Gose didn't embarrass himself - most people have him in the top 5 prospects in the system.

So that's 6 guys out of 10 who panned out just fine - how is that a fail?

Reported by Mark Polishuk via MLBTR. It's states it in the write up Bell signs with Marlins


----
Must have edited himself then - this is how the artivle reads now:

"Bell was a Type A free agent heading into the offseason, and under the old collective bargaining agreement, the Padres would've been entitled to a first-round compensation pick and the Marlins' second round pick (their first-rounder is protected). Under the new CBA, however, the Padres still get that first round compensation pick but the Marlins don't have to give up a draft pick for Bell. >>>Instead, San Diego will receive the pick in the slot directly in front of the Marlins' second-round selection, so this means the Padres are slated to pick ninth overall in the second round.

"in hindsight, 5 of the top 6 didn't even deserve to be top-10."

Why do you say that?  Seems to me that the only reason some guys moved down spots in the list was because they were overtaken by other prospects -- not because there was any deterioration in say, Deck McGuire's performance -- or because Sickels got the ranking wrong.  When you have a new class of high quality prospects moving up through the system there will invariably be some shuffling of the players' relative ranking. 

 

Top prospects are always a crapshoot. But for fun I thought I'd check Baseball America (generally well regarded for prospects) for 2005 and their top 25 for MLB.

1. JOE MAUER, c, Twins Scouting Report
"We had some concern from the start that he was bigger than the normal catcher. But Joe Mauer is not normal, from his mind to his tools to his heart."
--Twins scouting director Mike Radcliff

2. FELIX HERNANDEZ, rhp, Mariners Scouting Report
"He's the best I've seen in the last three or four years, and he's right up there with the great stuff guys I've ever seen."
--NL scout

3. DELMON YOUNG, of, Devil Rays Scouting Report
"He changes the outcome of every game with his power and his arm."
--Charleston (W.Va.) manager Ken Joyce

4. IAN STEWART, 3b, Rockies Scouting Report
"He's athletic and he's got some juice in his bat, and I like his haircut."
--Savannah manager Bob Henley

5. JOEL GUZMAN, ss, Dodgers Scouting Report
"He's Juan Gonzalez waiting to happen."
--AL scout

6. CASEY KOTCHMAN, 1b, Angels Scouting Report
"He's such a good hitter and he's still developing. I think he'll easily hit 30-plus homers in the majors."
--NL scout

7. SCOTT KAZMIR, lhp, Devil Rays Scouting Report
"You'll know why we traded for him when you see him pitch. He's got outstanding stuff."
--Devil Rays general manager Chuck LaMar

8. RICKIE WEEKS, 2b, Brewers Scouting Report
"He has the tools, he's smart, he's a good person and he has the work ethic. He's going to be outstanding."
--NL scout

9. ANDY MARTE, 3b, Braves Scouting Report
"There's nothing not to like about Andy Marte. He's an outstanding defender with a chance to be an impact player offensively."
--Birmingham manager Razor Shines

10. HANLEY RAMIREZ, ss, Red Sox Scouting Report
"What a young talent. He makes the game look so easy."
--Fort Myers manager Jose Marzan

11. LASTINGS MILLEDGE, of, Mets Scouting Report
"He's a double threat because of his power and his ability to lead off and make things happen on the bases."
--Greensboro manager Steve Phillips

12. DALLAS McPHERSON, 3b, Angels Scouting Report
"Every mistake we made, he made us pay for. He has an easy swing and natural power."
--San Antonio manager Dave Brundage

13. MATT CAIN, rhp, Giants Scouting Report
"With his stuff and maturity level, you look at that package and think front-of-the-rotation starter."
--AL scout

14. JEFF FRANCOEUR, of, Braves Scouting Report
"He has it all and his makeup is off the charts."
--AL scout

15. PRINCE FIELDER, 1b, Brewers Scouting Report
"I think he'll be a more complete hitter than his dad was, especially if he avoids losing control of his body."
--NL scout

16. ADAM MILLER, rhp, Indians Scouting Report
"He was dirty. His fastball and slider were more than plus."
--Lakewood manager P.J. Forbes

17. JASON KUBEL, of, Twins Scouting Report
"I call him Mr. Doubles. He hits the ball low and uses all fields, so he's going to hit a lot of doubles."
--Rochester broadcaster/former big league manager Joe Altobelli

18. JEREMY HERMIDA, of, Marlins Scouting Report
"He's a hitter. That's a beautiful swing."
--Sarasota manager Todd Claus

19. CHAD BILLINGSLEY, rhp, Dodgers Scouting Report
"He's just a kid with an overpowering fastball and overpowering slider. He's mature beyond his years."
--Dodgers scouting director Logan White

20. JEFF NIEMANN, rhp, Devil Rays Scouting Report
"He's truly unique because he's got four pitches and he can use those pitches, yet he's a power guy."
--Devil Rays general manager Chuck LaMar

21. BRIAN DOPIRAK, 1b, Cubs Scouting Report
"When the ball comes off his bat, it's like hitting a golf ball with an aluminum bat."
--Kane County manager Dave Joppie

22. CARLOS QUENTIN, of, Diamondbacks Scouting Report
"He improved in every phase. He didn't need to improve in some."
--Diamondbacks assistant general manager Bob Miller

23. JEFF FRANCIS, lhp, Rockies Scouting Report
"His fastball seems like it's going 97, he's throwing it downhill and does it so easy."
--Arkansas manager Tyrone Boykin

24. NICK SWISHER, of, Athletics Scouting Report
"He walks but he's not passive. He wants to hit and makes you throw him his pitch."
--AL Scout

25. JOSE CAPELLAN, rhp, Brewers Scouting Report
"Capellan throws in the high 90s, and it is effortless."
--Chattanooga manager Jayhawk Owens

Interesting list eh? A few that were painfully obvious (Mauer, King Felix), Joel Guzman at #5 is probably the highest ranking flop - 65 OPS+ over 62 PA, was in AA last season with a 863 OPS but now is entering his age 26 season and plays RF/1B not SS.

Aaron Hill at #64 was the highest ranking Blue Jay, then Brandon League (69), and Guillermo Quiroz at #79. Quiroz is a good warning about putting too much hope on minor league catchers.

Nice to hear from you bball12. Well written... double spaced and you are shooting from the hip as before. We established that the IMO is understood.
I was surprised that 1)you gave AA so much credit...he will make a big move this off season. 2) We will compete in 2012. I will not bet against you because I lose so often. And big moves are his style.

My thoughts in general.
1) Most of everything for all teams will be done by about Jan 10th ie acquisitions. Except leftovers. Generally AA will not be rushed. Also an 81 win season may play a part.
2) I expect our very good 2nd sacker to arrive within 4 years. AA was desperate or knew his mind about the need for starting SS & C when he moved very fast in signing A Gon & J Buck. By leaving 2B an open question he is taking his time & still has the winter meetings. One possibility but a weak option is the Rule 5 draft.

Too much talk, TRUE, you put that kindly, thank you. But it is just a fad...like, I can't believe people are lining up to buy a cup of coffee. But as Tamra said some of the long shots work and the sure things don't. Cup of coffee? But higher education on the net, where is it?

We just had a fantastic minor league season, championships & prospects. I should have enjoyed it more by experiencing it more fully. 4 pennant races (1st & 2nd half) & we won them all. I hope to do better next year.
If you could clarify, I believe that you see in person a lot of the NH games but get your info on the other minor league teams through the media. So how far away is that hotel that Sierra's HR hit.
You prefer to comment on position players rather than pitchers and have 2 standards of judgement for ML vs Minor league players. Fair enough. You stated clearly that being in the majors is reason enough for the high standard.
So is Sierra's arm as strong as everyone is saying, how is his accuracy & hitting the cutoff man? His route & judgement regarding GBs & FBs? So is this part of his game ML ready, judged by your high standard.
He obviously made big strides in 2011 considering the 2010 lost season due to injuries. Hopefully his leg is fully healed, I think he tired late in the season. It is his hitting that is still a work in progress, which requires lots of ABs.

I think J Jackson will survive the Rule 5 draft, I hope so. Based on your lower standard...did you see him in NH? He did not do so well & got demoted. Other than working on his hitting, his BBs & Ks were not too bad, how was his athleticism and how did he look defensively at those multiple positions he played...ie lost or getting there?

To anyone responding. Thanks.

The only grade you really could quibble with from Sickels last year was "Drabek- A-".  It was a tools/stuff rating (BA had him as the 17th best prospect in baseball, either an A or A-).  There were those who said he wasn't ready from a command/composure perspective, and in hindsight, they were right.  I say this as someone who was agnostic on the point. Most people consider him a very good pitching prospect still. 

Projecting is very hard.  Who knows what will cause a 20 year old hitter with a world of talent like Brett Lawrie or Carlos Perez to thrive or flounder?  My own view is that a club's decision where to place the hitter defensively plays a role.  Moving Lawrie to third base helped, in my view, and keeping Perez behind the plate has hurt.  Projecting prospects in December precludes consideration of these kinds of factors in many cases.

I think Sickels does a good job. He's not a professional evaluator, but he does get out to see players and does a lot of research. One interesting aspect of minorleagueball is its "wisdom of the crowds" dimension: prior to ranking players, he solicits others' views about prospects (for example, he did this specifically in relation to Molina, Nicolino, Syndergaard and Norris).

You're always going to miss the mark on some prospects like Drabek. The question is, does he do a good job at adding value for (and generating discussion among) fans who are interested in the state of the talent percolating through the minors? I would say the answer is yes.

Thanks Timberlee, can I interest you in a cup of Jo?

Plus, of course, Drabek's career is far from over. He's still young and may yet have a productive major-league career.

A reminder of how fortunes can change...
Ricky Romero in 2008 at age 23: Repeating AA for the 3rd time at 23 had a 4.55 ERA, 6.4 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 21 starts. 7 starts in AAA that year had a 3.38 ERA (IL, not PCL) and 8 K/9 but still 4.2 BB/9 and many wrote him off as a prospect.

Roy Halladay in 2000 at age 23: in majors had a record 10.64 ERA and a 5.50 in AAA.

Kyle Drabek at age 23: Majors/AAA split and had a 6.06 ERA in majors vs 7.44 in AAA.

Sheesh. When I started this I didn't know all 3 were 23 in their nightmare seasons. Funny eh? 2 broke out big time at age 24 and became all-stars at 25 & 26.

If Deck McGuire's a B+, Alvarez would be an A or A- in my book.  His stuff and command are excellent.  My major concern with him would be durability.  And that is true of most pitching prospects to some degree or the other.  He did throw 160 innings last year (at the age of 21) and looked very, very good at the end of the year.  I would classify the durability concern as a moderate one.

It seems like most of the people who do this sort of thing professionally are, not down, but not as supremely enthusiastic about Henderson Alvarez as I am. Yes he hasn't gotten the huge strikeouts numbers that you might expect, and his third pitch is a work in progress. That being said, he doesn't walk anyone, gets a ton of ground balls, and doesn't give up home runs. He has a plus fastball and a plus changeup and the heater averaged 93.3 mph per Fangraphs, which puts him around 20th in average velocity of any starter who threw more than 50 innings this year. Not to mention that he had a very fine ML debut, allowing only 25 runs in 63.2 innings, with a 40/8 K/BB ratio.

So to sum up, he throws real hard, has a phenomenal K/BB ratio, gets a ton of ground balls, doesn't give up home runs, and he's 21 freaking years old and had a good 10 starts. He basically had the same age 21 season as Brett Anderson, except Anderson pitched in a much better home ballpark in a much weaker division and didn't get unlucky on home runs. You can make a reasonable comp to Clayton Kershaw too, though Kershaw was better. What's not to like?

Nice John N.

Well 1 month into the season (5 starts), we should know who is struggling at the ML level and who is doing well in AA.
So depending on options & injury, it could be the start of something.

PS: I don't see Drabek making the team out of ST. An early struggle, could be a disaster for him at the ML level. But in the minors he should be able to gain confidence in his control, endurance and all round game and if not he has an environment to work on it and then come up. It is a long season.

Anders, the answer to your question of "What's not to like?" when you're building Alvarez comparisons to Brett Anderson & Clayton Kershaw is simple - he doesn't have a real breaking ball yet and he's right-handed. Kershaw & Anderson were highly touted prospects because they were lefties with strong fastballs that earned their best grades on their breaking balls, the curve for Kershaw and the slurve for Anderson. It's tough to project Alvarez as a top of the rotation starter until he flashes command of an effective breaking ball.

92-93, you are setting high standards. That is very good and you are also pointing out various areas for possible/definite improvement.
Can he perfect his breaking ball in the Majors? If he struggles, then sure he can go down and develop it in the minors. I agree with most people that he will need it to become an elite SP.
Syndergaard is following the same general pattern. I believe he is throwing mainly FBs with control. But I think he has a curve ball. So I guess he breezes through Lansing and maybe Dunedin but hits the wall in AA.

Also uglyone, don't forget those 19-21 year olds that burst onto the ML level from nowhere and do real well. I cannot remember their names. Wait Gooden NYM.

There are lots of ways to be a great pitcher.  A fastball/changeup combination is just fine if you have excellent control of the fastball.  That's Henderson Alvarez.  Kershaw is more along the lines of a quick-blooming but not as overpowering Koufax. In the minor leagues, he walked and struck out a lot, but developed good enough control by the time he reached double A. 

If you want to say he's an A- because he doesn't have the great curveball at age 21, you can.  For myself, the absence of the great curveball is a testament to wise management.  The organization has decided to let him perfect the less stressful pitches at a young age.  Personally, I think that that too bodes well for his durability.

One thing I like about Alvarez is that he's so unflappable. After giving up a couple of hits, he just starts boring away again with that sinking fastball and change, putting them on the corners or just out of reach. It will be interesting to see whether he can improve his breaking ball (currently a slider). He's already good, but having a solid third pitch would make him that much better.

This falls under the "Where are they now?" category. Former Batter's Box favourite Jayce Tingler is the new minor league field coordinator for the Texas Rangers. He's been a minor league instructor and manager with the Rangers since his retirement as a player.

Yeah, a major difference between Halladay & Romero's situation and Drabek's is the opportunity situation. While the Jays rotation has openings, they aren't as easy for a kid to grab when 1/2 a dozen more kids are pounding hard on that door.

"Hmm. Well....in hindsight, 5 of the top 6 didn't even deserve to be top-10. The one guy he gave a rare A to was a complete bust. Only one of his 3 semi-rare B+ grades ended up worthy of the grade, but even that one ended up so much better than a B+ almost instantly that the grade still looks poor.

The 7-10 grades look ok, I guess. Though interestingly that only happened because he went mostly against "performance" and went more with "tools" when putting Sanchez, D'Arnaud, and Gose in the top-10."

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I know prospects lists are fluid, but that seems to me to be way off even less than a year later."

I don't see it that way at all.

1. Drabek: struggled - SO FAR. when are we going to learn our lesson about throwing around the word "bust"? We have no idea yet if we was worthy of the grade, the grade is not "I think he will be an this good NEXT YEAR" it's "I think he will be this good ultimately"

2. Lawrie: one assumes we are all in agreement

3. McGuire: Given he got the exact same grade this year as last, how is this "not deserving" of last year's grade?

4. Stewart: Inconsistent in the majors, but the Sox thought enough of him for him to be there. No more a bust than Drabek, the same note applies.

5. Wojo: have you checked his stats closely? After July 1 he was quite good. We all know that the minors exist to teach, and they tried to teach him something that took six weeks or so to get a handle on. Clearly he didn't struggle all year.

6. Perez: A complete off year. if you judge a guy based on one year then I'll have to concede this one to you. although, that said, you used the phrase "didn't deserve" - rankings are based on observations up to the point the ranking is made, they are projections of ultimate outcome, not what happens next year. it can be argued, I think, that Perez is just as good a prospect as he was a year ago. the difference is how much other players improved their stock. That's not to say it wasn't a rough year, but one rough year does not render a person a failed or failing prospect.

Many counter examples may be offered.

At a BARE minimum you have to concede you underrated McGuire. But I think "didn't deserve" is an unfair characterization to begin with.

The point you make about 7-10 is actually quite instructive. for instance, d'Arnaud was ranked #10 based on ability in spite of ordinary stats - one year later and he's #1. What lessons should we draw from that about Perez's ordinary stats in 2011? You can't view Perez as undeserving this year unless you want to argue d'Arnaud was undeserving of the top 10 last year.

But just to directly compare letter grades:

Drabek - A-, graduated
Lawrie - B+, graduated (he's said that he'd be a full A - in fact he said he'd consider ranking him #2 in all of baseball)
McGuire - B+, B+
Stewart - B+, out of system
Wojo - B, B-
Perez - B, C+
Sanchez - B, B-
Arencibia - B-, graduated
d'Arnaud - B-, B+
Gose - B-, B
Thames - B-, graduated
Syndergaard - B-, B+
Thon - B-, no grade*
Sweeney - B-, No grade*
Murphy - B-, no grade
Marisnick - C+, B+
Jenkins - C+, C+
Hech - C+, C+
Knecht - C+, C+
Alvarez - C+, graduated (he's said he'd have him at B+)
Hutchison - C+, B+
Carreno - C+, C+
Farina - C+, no grade*
Nicolino - C+, B


So - 24 ranked

Graduated to majors: 5, but we'll make reasonable assumptions on these)
out of system: 1 (him too for now)

Increased letter grade at least 2 ranks: 4, 6 if you count Lawrie and Alvarez
Increased grade one rank: 2
stayed the same: 5 (we'll count JPA and Thames here)
dropped one rank: 2
dropped at least 2: 1 can assume 2 more if you count Drabek and Stewart)
dropped off list: 4, 3 of those on account of health.



UP = 8
same = 7
down = 6
health = 3

That looks like the pretty standard rule of thumb oft quoted here: roughly 1/3 each.

Pretty much what any list-maker would do, on average.Nature of the beast and all that.

"PS: I don't see Drabek making the team out of ST. An early struggle, could be a disaster for him at the ML level. But in the minors he should be able to gain confidence in his control, endurance and all round game and if not he has an environment to work on it and then come up. It is a long season."

I would think that's what Spring training is for.

I'm not sure he WILL figure it out this year, but I'd have a lot more confidence that IF he does it will be i nthe spring, not in the minors. if he ends up in the minors that's a clear indication he failed to find the handle in spring which is a bad sign.

I think you're being generous, to say the least.

Of the four guys he gave B+ or better grades to, just a year later it's clear that 3 of them didn't deserve it, and one of them deserved much more than the grade he got.

5 of the top-6 guys didn't even deserve top-10.

And I think there's a general trend in the entire list of him erring mostly due to his undervaluing of raw tools - which many point to as a point of pride with him, and a main reason why they usually like his lists.

I think even sickels would admit that list turned out pretty poorly.

It's not just him - IMO most lists last year underrated our rawer, toolsier prospects like Lawrie, Arencibia, D'Arnaud, Gose, Alvarez, Marisnick.

Of the four guys he gave B+ or better grades to, just a year later it's clear that 3 of them didn't deserve it, and one of them deserved much more than the grade he got.

Clear to whom? Here is what Sickels says about his B ranked prospects...

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Drabek's intitial struggles not withstanding, I see nothing to suggest Sickel's B prospects from a year ago didn't deserve their ranking based on that criteria. Perhaps I am also missing the wisdom of the many that contend he undervalues raw tools. He quite obviously values contextual performance but one of the reasons he was as bullish on Lawrie was because of his tremendous raw tools. If anything I find Sickels one of the most balanced evaluators.