Based on information leaking out, it appears that teams will no longer lose a pick for signing a type A player.  Also the compensation for these losses might be pushed back in the draft from the first round.   This might change how the Blue Jays approach signing players in the off-season.  Alex A has targetted players who could turn into type A or B free agents.

The Jays have not actually received another first round pick since 2007 (I think) so the fact that they might just get supplemental picks may not change their approach much.

You're faithful and obedient supplicant.

That wonderful and all-too-common homonym error makes that phrase mean exactly the opposite of what I think you intended. HE's a supplicant?  :-)

we now return to our regularly schedule Bauxery.

Thanks Greenfrog.  I can see how the "last chance to overspend" argument applies to the draft overall, but not how it applies to the Jays' specific selection of Beede.  If he had slipped in the draft (say, he would've been drafted top ten overall but fell to 21 due to his contract demands) then yes, I guess this phenomonon won't be as pronounced next year under a cap -- but I have never heard from anyone that Beede fell because of signability issues.  I understood the jays felt he was simply the best player on the board at the time, and that most teams had him as a fringe first rounder.

Whatever the mechanics of the cap, I would expect any wage compression to happen at the top end of the range to the big ticket guys rather than at the lower end.   This would make guys like Beede cheaper to sign next year.

Shi Davidi has a report from the GM meetings in Milwaukee where he talked with AA.

There is not much that is noteworthy in the story.  AA doesn't want to spend a lot on a closer, AA appears comfortable that the A and B compensations will stay in place for this off-season, nothing is happening on a second baseman until the deadline to offer arbitration to Kelly Johnson passes, musings about Darvish and Cespedes, etc.

The Jays have claimed RHP Cole Kimball on waivers from the Nationals.  He's a 26-year-old relief pitcher who hasn't started a game since the age of 22 at Hagerstown.  Had pretty good numbers in AA at the age of 24, and pitched 14 innings in the majors for Washington last year with a nice 1.93 ERA but a horrendous 7.1 BB/9.   On closer examination, he also had a 5.2 BB/9 in 2010 at the AA level, so I can see why the Nationals let him go.

Kimball last pitched June 9th.  He had rotator cuff surgery in June and it is uncertain when he will be ready to pitch.  That is why the Nationals thought he would get through waivers.

[E]ither you call up these kids and find a slot or you risk wasting them in the minors

Could not agree more.  The most precious/scarce commodity the Jays have right now is not prospects, but rather windows of at bats/pitching opportunities at the major league level.  We are a year away from an inexorable parade of prospects (mainly pitchers and outfielders) making their way to the major league club.  If we are going to make the most of this talent, each will need a patient and sustained audition on the big league club.  Jays will need to be much more careful about how they dole out these auditions going forward. 

The team's mishandling of Snider is a cautionary tale of what happens when you promote too soon, and then don't find a window of at bats for a top prospect.   

You don't overpay for a 1B. It's the easiest position to fill, and there's available FAs every single offseason.

Really!   Then we're keeping Adam Lind - why?   And tell me exactly who at First Base is being blocked.  Cooper (AAA/MLB), McDade (AA), Ochinko (A+), Hobson (A), Patterson (A-), Charles (RK) will not be blocked.   IMO, they have a long way to go to just equal Lind, let alone be better.  Who on this huge list of yours?

This year's include Pujols, Fielder, Pena, and Lee...

Lee - too old.  Pena - average sucks worse than Hill`s.  Pujols - 5 years and $135.0 MM, and no longer contract than 5 years.  Fielder (27) - 4-5 Years at $22.5-$25.0 MM per years - to - 10 years at $200.0 MM, I`m willing to pay more if shorter term.   Any other real gems on the list?

Votto, Alonso - why not, they are a lot better than anyone we have.   Our best assets is very young pitching.   At OF, other than Gose, 2-3 years away.  At SS, other than Hechavarria, 3-4 years away.  At 2B, no one.  At 3B, 5+ years away.  At C, other than d`Arnaud, Gomes? - maybe 1-2 years, otherwise 2-3 years away for the others.  At SP, Cecil (MLB); Drabek (AAA/MLB); Alvarez (MLB); Hutchison, Molina, McGuire, Jenkins (all at AA) just to name a few.   This minor system needs to be better - sooner, so either trade Bautista and Romero, or go for it.

Snider for Alonso?  If we just step into Cincy's shoes for a moment, would you think Snider (a 2006 first rounder) is a fair swap for your 2008 first round pick (7th overall), who has done nothing but rake throughout his minor league career, and just hit .330 with power for the big club in just under 100 at bats?  Snider, who was handed the starting job and then sent down to AAA on account of massive swing deficiencies?  Snider, who was sent down again because he couldn't beat out Eric Thames for at bats?

To even out that trade, the sweetener would have to be a better player than Snider.

Shaker.  I don't post that often, but 50% of the posts I do put up are about Travis Snider.  I'm as optimistic as anyone about him, but we are talking about his trade value here.  I see all the things that you do, but I can also see (as can  you), is that for the past three years, the majority of Snider's at bats came at the big league level. His numbers for the big club are far less impressive (248, .307,.423) than the minor league stats you cite, and are obviously far more representive of what he can accomplish at the major league level going forward.   Also, a demotion that was publicly declared to be due to broken swing mechanics has also got to be an enormous red flag. 

It's only if you are willing to ignore all of these things that this trade seems remotely even.  I think Alonso would be a great fit for many of the reasons you mention, but an offer of a straight swap would get you laughed out of the room.

Let me get this straight.  Snider's major league stats accumulated over the last three years are less representative of what he can do at the major league level going forward, than minor league stats that were largely accumulated between 2006 and 2008?  

As far as Alex Gordon is concerned, I'm not sure what principle you think I should adopt on the basis of a single counterexample.  Is it that some players recover from slow starts to their major league careers?  I'm already with you there, and obviously there are much better examples close to home of that phenomona.  Bautista  and Gordon though, are exceptions that prove the rule.  Let's hope Travis is another.

And again, I'm not talking about whether we should be patient with Travis.  I absolutely think we should.  I just think some of us have very biased views of how other teams see our prospects, and what we might trade them for. 

Everyone knows Cincinnati has to clear out one of Votto or Alonso as neither can play anything but 1B/DH.

The plan is for Alonso to play left field everyday. 

I like Snider too, but to support your theory you've seized on one part of his resume (top ten as a 20 year-old), constructed an alternate reality about what he would have done had a number of different things happened, and ignored what he has done the last three years.  Quite apart from that, you ignore the qualitative reason for his being sent down -- a completely broken swing.

What I'm saying is based on what I think are some pretty noncontroversial principles.  One, that as an indicator of future performance, it is better to look at what a player has done recently, as opposed to what he did four to six years ago.  Second, that if what you are trying to assess is performance in the major leagues, it is preferable to look at a past record of major league performance rather than minor league performance. 

Now, there are other principles, like the one you have correctly pointed out - that a lot more credit should be given for success at a younger age.  But at the end of the day Yonder has raked at every level.   Snider has been mediocre for the past three years.  His most recent performance at the major league level was abysmal, even if it was over only 200 PAs.   He is one bad season away from being somebody else's reclamation project.

It depends what you mean by full.   The Jays have a lot of prospects but as a system they are strongest at the AA level.  The best value you have in a prospect is a player who is major league ready so the acquiring team can slot them onto their roster.   I think the Jays are a half season away from a full cupboard, their AA talent needs to graduate to AAA, or for the pitchers, play a full season at AA.

This might inhibit AA's ability to trade this winter, the Jays may put more value on their AA prospects while other teams might discount them as being still not major league ready. 

I will say that I found it telling that Snider wasn't invited to today's festivities. Colby should've been too.

The franchise invited its centrepieces to this event.  That you are surprised Snider wasn't there should tell you that you see him very differently from management.  You still see his potential.  The rest of us can see it too, but we have to squint a little.

From Bowden's Nov. 23 column on ESPN:

"The Reds inquired about Bailey, and the A's responded with interest in Yonder Alonso, which didn’t interest the Reds"

Still think we'd get Alonso for Snider?

Yes you are.  It's that regardless of the idiosyncratic valuations of Snider's worth on this site, the Reds (rightly or wrongly) ain't trading Alonso for him.  

• Bailey is a closer who has yet to get 30 saves who is entering his age 28 season and has had injury issues (sub 50 IP each of the past 2 seasons).
• Snider is entering his age 24 season with a 93 OPS+ lifetime over 877 PA's and can (sort of) play CF along with LF/RF.
• Alonso is entering his age 25 season with a lifetime OPS+ of 124 over 127 PA and can really only play 1B.

There was slight step back last year, but Bailey has been pretty much lights out his entire career.  The only question is whether he can be healthy.  He has realised on more of his potential than Snider and Alonso combined, many times over, and is entering his prime years.  In his three years in the league he has been a two time all star and rookie of the year, has an era just over 2, and (although I know it's frowned upon to even mention this stat) saved 75 games.    

You can rank them however you like based on your view of Snider's ceiling (which I share btw), but in terms of the way the market would rank them, I don't think there's any question that Bailey is a much more sought after commodity than Snider.