Espionage in my opinion, I can't think of another reason why it'd play out like this.

Don't get me wrong, I completely understand why someone wouldn't want to work for Angelos. I just don't understand why he'd interview in the first place.

I think there's any number of reasons LaCava could have gone into his last meeting with Angelos and company with every intention of signing on, only to be convinced otherwise.

Perhaps he wanted 5 years and was unable to convinced them to go more than 3
Perhaps he wanted assurances Showalter (or Angelos for that matter) would not be able to influence the decision making process and didn't ge them
Perhaps he had set amounts to spend on the draft and in Latin America that Baltimore refused to guarantee

The impression I get from all of this is that LaCava wants to GM.  But he wants to GM on his terms, or not at all.

Update: I've talked to multiple people who are close to LaCava, and a few within the organization. Here's what I've been told:

LaCava wasn't concerned with possible interference from ownership or Showalter in the daily operations of the ballclub. Money also wasn't an issue. However, there were disagreements over some personnel moves he wanted to make.

Also, LaCava is happy in Toronto. If the situation didn't suit him perfectly, he wasn't going to leave. But he most certainly was willing to do so at one point or he wouldn't have come to Baltimore twice for interviews.

Update II: I'm also hearing that LaCava had the authority to bring in multiple people from the Blue Jays and outside the organization. He could have done some reshaping of the organization. And he apparently left Baltimore yesterday still encouraged about the job, which is what I heard and wrote yesterday.

As mentioned, perhaps the best part of this happening, besides the O's having some egg on their face, is that there's several people on the Jays' staff who will remain that probably would have gone with LaCava.

....at which point you may no longer be a GM candidate.

Thanks for the link. Interesting reading.

The Update said this:

Update: I've talked to multiple people who are close to LaCava, and a few within the organization. Here's what I've been told:

LaCava wasn't concerned with possible interference from ownership or Showalter in the daily operations of the ballclub. Money also wasn't an issue. However, there were disagreements over some personnel moves he wanted to make.

And Forkball said:

"It does seem interesting that it fell apart simply on some proposed personnel moves, which I guess ultimately goes back to interference that a GM wouldn't want to have to deal with from one source or another."

Roch Kubatko should have written this differently should he have not? He's contradicting himself within 3 sentences. How can he not be "concerned with interference" but apparently did not jive with the fact there were "disagreements over some personnel moves he wanted to make". Angelos and/or Showalter were the problems and the reasons.

There are some good thoughts in this Fangraphs piece: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lacava-turns-down-baltimore-gm-job/

When applying for a G.M. you must have control over decisions to at least some degree.   That includes Front Office, Manager, Coaching Staff and Players.  Without that, walk away.

When determining payroll estimates, Guarenteed Contracts are locked, Pre-Arb numbers are minimally changing, Arbitration numbers are difficult.   Checking comparable's numbers to a player's value helps.   The biggest increases go to those who have good years: Morrow, Janssen, Villanueva.  Smallest increases go to those who have less than decent years: Carlson, Rasmus.   The toughest decision on increases go to those with years in between: Litsch, McGowan.

I would give Morrow a 3-year contract, with 1-2 option years (saving $$$).   Other decisions????  

For Arb Numbers, TamRa is generally much more accurate, so I would go with those.