The vastly underrated Jonah Keri has this terrific summary of lsst night's game 5:
The John Farrell era lives to fight another day. The Blue Jays just issued a very short press release.
Due to the distraction caused by media speculation regarding our employee permission policy, the Toronto Blue Jays have amended their policy and will not grant permission for lateral moves.
One wonders if any coaches will shuffle this winter, and if so who and why.
What a ridiculous excuse. La Russa looked a step behind all night. He used a pinch hitter to lay down a sacrifice bunt. Feliz was throwing nothing but heat, and Craig had been running on 2 straight foul balls. Just terrible. Leaving aside the alleged game of broken telephone, Octavio Dotel eats righties for dinner. Why is he intentionally walking any righty in any situation? What if he pitches to Cruz, walks Murphy and then pitches to Napoli? Yesterday, Magpie said he disliked La Russa because he constantly manages as if he is trying to look more clever than everyone else. That was on full display last night.
Like Magpie, I don't care for the late-inning matchup era which LaRussa help to usher in. His fault last night was not following his own recipe in one of the clearest possible circumstances.
There was no way that could work. I understand the positives of having an open policy, such as everyone who is in the organization is doing so because they are happy and committed to the organization. And those that wish they were somewhere else are welcome to leave and be replaced by folks who want to be there. That sounds like a good ideal, but it can easily devolve into a horrible mess. Kind of like having an open marriage.
The main issue is stability. And what if you have some folks who are happy working with Farrell and want to be there to work with him and he leaves? And what are players to think, where they are working with an individual and rely on their presence, and that guy leaves? What would Shea Hillenbrand say to his fellow players in a clubhouse like that?
I figured the policy with most clubs has been that they would be happy to give a guy an opportunity for promoted responsibility (and salary, presumably) with another organization even if he's under contract. But for other organizations to poach your manager, or hitting coach, or fielding coach, or baserunning coach, or equipment manager, just so he can take the same position in another spot? Unacceptable. If the guy figures it's time to negotiate an extension and raise, so be it. If he wants to take a page from Larry Brown and make his employers disgusted with him for his lack of dedication to the organization, so be it.
But there was no way they could leave the door open for people to come and go as they please. It does not foster commitment and stability. Like an open marriage, you might hope everyone is responsible and respectful. But in the end, someone will be hurt by the instability.
If we'd been in any position to assume Napoli would step up to this degree as a catcher (and not just as a hitter) then one wonders if we could have traded JP for Francisco instead, with an eye towards having a more veteran (and more productive) catcher in place until d'Arnaud (or whoever) graduated?
another random thought - what does it say if "legendary" catcher Mike Soscia couldn't bring out the D in Napoli but somehow he found it in Texas?
"Too many good docs are getting out of the business. Too many OB-GYNs aren't able to practice their love with women all across this country." --Poplar Bluff, Mo., Sept. 6, 2004
Maybe seeing George in the crowd has been distracting LaRussa. In a way, it's understandable.
Whoah; now there’s a question to shiver timbers in the Front Office!
Maybe there was more to the fried chicken and beer in the clubhouse story than I thought. Does seem like a bit of a culture clash.
Boston is a good club still, but they have a lot of pressure on them. They could be forced into risky moves that could back fire.
and the lead singer of the Stone Temple Pilots again
I hope he doesn't suffer the same fate as the sometimes former lead guitarist of Yes.
Is this guy just too big a risk for a 6 or 7 year contract going forward? Would you want to be paying this guy 20+ for his age 39 season?
To me - I'm just not interested, at the amount of money, and the number of years, that will be required to sign him. The risk is just WAY TOO much. Any team that signs him is acting mostly on pure desperation - or acting with the knowledge that blowing 40 to 60 million is just another cost of doing business.
If both get comparable deals for 6+ years, who'd you rather if you're an MLB GM?
Fat Prince @ 27 > Fat CC @ 32
An alternative view: while some hitters get hurt, most of that is due to defensive issues (i.e. concussions, diving, etc). I think most will agree that pure DHs rarely miss significant time, unless there were already underlying issues. The biggest decline is usually age-related regression, except for a few notable cases where batters are dunn from one season to the next, as if they fell off a hill into hidden wells with only the chirping of o-rio(le)s to keep them company. For example, looking at the expected-DH-to-be, Mr. Fielder, one can expect that after age 35, he will probably not be a great hitter, but until age 32-34, one expects he will be healthy, and will hit quite well.
On the other hand, most starting pitchers get hurt some time during their career. I don't know the percentages, but, it seems, especially now, many pitchers miss a year or two and then come back and can still deliver good results. For example, Mr. Carpenter. Looking at Mr. CC: baseball reference has his WAR over the last 4 years as 7.1, 4.3, 5.0, 6.9. That averages out to 5.825. IIRC, 1 WAR = $5M (or is it different for starting pitchers)? So, that's an average of almost $30M/year. This past season, almost $35M in "performance". While I don't think the NYY will pay CCS an average of $35M over 6 years, maybe something like $140/6? That means, over 6 years, he needs a WAR total of 28. If he has a couple more 6.9's, he'll have paid for half his contract in 2 years. Then, 14 WAR over 4 years isn't that hard - EVEN if he misses a year due to injury, or seriously declines. Maybe something like 7, 7, 5, 1, 4, 4 or 7,7,5,4,3,2. In other words - in some ways, a longer contract IS averaging out the risk. The risk that they get NOTHING for their contract. If, on the other hand, they signed him for $30M for one year and he gets hurt in spring training and needs a year to recover, they've lost ALL of their investment (is it only the Jays, or do most teams self-insure these days?). 0 WAR for $30M is a VERY, VERY bad signing. On the other hand, if they sign him for $140/6, even he goes, say 0, 4, 7, 6, 5, 4 they'll have recovered 26 of the 28 WAR they paid for. Not great, but not a total disaster. The risk of not getting their contract's value probably goes up by signing him to a long-term deal, but it reduces the risk of getting nothing..
To say nothing of the risk of letting him go to a competitor. If the Jays were to sign CC, imagine this scenario.
2011
Kyle Drabek: -0.3 WAR
Jo-Jo Reyes: -0.6 WAR
That's -0.9 WAR turned into +6.9 WAR (just for the sake of argument). That's +8 wins for the Jays. Probably worth $20M/year all by itself. Then, let's say the Yankees have to replace him with a 3 WAR pitcher (2 WAR isn't that hard to find, 3+ isn't easy). They lose 4 wins. So, instead of the Jays being 81-81, they go to 89-73. NYY goes from 97-65 to 93-69. Guess what - we're 4 games out of first place. Add in Brett Lawrie's boost (say 2 WAR more than this year), and we're breathing down the necks of the Yanks.
Plus, CCs WAR would have a "doubling" effect - his value to the Jays is not only the expected WAR, but also the expected LOST WAR to NYY. Let's go with my WAR projections from earlier: 7, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2. Assuming 3+ WAR pitchers are hard to find, what have we gained? +4, +4, +2, +1, 0, -1 = +10 WAR (over a "good" pitcher - someone we'd still have to find, add +4 to each season if we're comparing to Drabek/Reyes). What have the Yankees lost? -4, -4, -2, -1, 0, +1. Or -10 WAR. So, the cumulative effect would be +20 WAR for the Jays - +10WAR for the team, -10 WAR for the opposition. That's ON TOP OF a decent 3 WAR pitcher who would probably make $6-10M/year..
In one way, the Jays can't afford NOT to sign CC if they're serious about contention. CC + Fielder is probably enough to get us to the playoffs next year, or be in the chase until the last week. Not just because it improves our team drastically (it does), but also because it weakens the Yankees significantly.
Mylegacy
I agree. They agree http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/yankees-aim-to-sign-sabathia-before-opt-out-date.html . When does his weight start effecting his ankles, his knees, his hips and, not least, his heart. A.A. should not be interested unless, 3 Years plus 3-4 option years.
No world series tonight, game 6 will be tomorrow and game 7 Friday. I think the delay benefits St Louis, they could skip both Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson and bring back Carpenter on three days rest on Friday.
He mentioned that there is still time to decide on EE's 2012 option. Overall I think that his statement can be considered moderately positive. He felt that he would have a more clear plan & strategy by the end of the month. He said that they are evaluating FAs but also that the farm had a lot of success as well as the 2010 & 2011 draft being potentially good.
He mentioned that he did not know how to get 10 more wins over the 2010 85 win season.
I am not sure if I am reading more into what he said or not.
There are some big variables. If the Jays win the posting process for Darvish they suddenly are looked at as a serious team. If the Jays do a trade for a true ace (Felix Hernandez for example) or MVP caliber slugger (Votto) then they also become serious and a more tempting destination.
Odds are a Fielder/Pujols/CC won't be step one this winter. Odds are something else will be and that step will tell the top free agents (and fans) if the Jays are or are not contenders in 2012.
On Yu know who - I'd bet my years supply of single malt that the Jay's WON'T win the bid.
The Yanks NEED him, Boston MUST have him, the Cubs will make a BIG splash, Texas calls, the O's have money - you get the idea. The bid on Yu will be OVER $60,000,000 - I'm sure of it. On top of that it'll take a MINIMUM of $15,000,000 over each of 5 to 7 years to get him to sign. Remember, he's 25 next year - he can go back to Japan and after another stellar season come on back for another crack at it if he's not offered enough.
Over 6 years he works out to $150,000,000 or $25,000,000 per year - SOMEONE will pay that. Would you rather have 32 year old Senior CC for an average of $18,000,000 or a 25 year old otherworldly monster for 7 million more? Neither are worth it, both have risks, but someone will pay it. Not AA - not this off-season.
Carpenter has only started on three days rest once in his career and got drilled. On the other hand, though Ron Wash insists that Matty harrison would still start a Game 7, it would be possible to bring back Derek Holland on full rest in that situation, too ....
Hard to guess if the day off will benefit either team, until we all agree in hindsight that it obviously benefitted whoever won ....
There was a bit on MLBTR the other day which said that the consensus on Dice-K was that a bid of ~$30 mil would get him and that the Boston offer came out of left field.
It's not impossible you could win the bid on Darvish for something like $40 mil
But if you don't care if YOU sign him, only that others don't, throw out the $60 and then low-ball Darvish and whatever happens happens.
If you presume a $40 mil posting fee, and a $12-15 per year annual salary, you'd be looking at $100-125 in spending combined for five years.
If you account for intangible things like the value of not having him on a rival team, potential marketing, and so forth - you can probably work with that if you think he's a top of the rotation sort of guy.
IF
Don't Occupy Rogers Centre?
You really want the MSM calling y'all Toronto's DORCs?
:-)
One thing is for sure. Baseball in St. Louis has had a good run since Branch Rickey arrived almost a century ago. There is every chance that the run will continue indefinitely, with this game being talked about for decades.
It was the Voldemort of games (yes, I'm quoting the Harry Potter novels) : ...great things - terrible, yes, but great!
The only more fitting conclusion to the game would have been if Beltre caught that Lohse bunt and turned a triple play. As I saw noted elsewhere, Lohse was a pitcher pinch-hitting for a pitcher who pinch-hit for the pitcher. All in that one plate appearance. NL-style games seem increasingly stupid as the years pass, as teams seemingly refuse to let pitchers dedicate the time to become reasonable hitters (DHs in the minors now). Is pitching really a full-time job on the off days, such that they can't train a few different muscles and reflexes? Also, Managers need to let any hitter, no matter how bad, swing away once the corners actually get closer than the pitcher's mound.
Since 1986, maybe? It's been remarkable.
And what is it about Game Six? The Speizio-Glaus exploits in 2002. The Fisk homer in 1975. Mookie and Buckner in 1986 (not to mention the absolutely epic Mets-Astros Game six in the NLCS that year...)
I did not know this:
Of the last nine seven-game World Series, the team that won Game 6 has won it eight times. Home teams have won the last eight Game 7s.
St Louis would be the favourite tonight.
On the game 6 front...throw in the Jays's exploits in the World Series too. BBref had a post up yesterday that had 1992 game 6 as (by one particular measure involving leverage indexes), the most exciting game 6 ever. And 1993 was on the list too. Last night though, might be the new champion.