Not at all relevant to the topic at hand, but a couple years ago there was a bauxite game chatter who taught at Oxford. I haven't seen him around in a while, but if you're reading this I eventually did move to England and our Nottingham Baseball Club is taking on the Oxford club on November 6th if you wanted to catch some live baseballing!
(Or to anyone else who happens to be in Oxford in a "fortnight".
Apologies for the disruption, you may now return to discussing that Pujols guy.
Nick Cafardo on Boston dot com wonders if the Jays would allow Farrell to go manage the Red Sox:
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2011/10/23/farrell_was_seen_as_sox_manager_and_still_could_be/?page=1
I don't see why he would. The team is in total disarray, and he has already established a relationship with Anthopoulos. But on the other hand, Anthopoulos has said he would never stand in the way of anyone who wanted to leave. So it's conceivable that he wouldn't block a move if Farrell wanted to go.
Of course you'd have to lose all respect for Farrell if he did that.
If Boston asked for permission to interview Farrell, I would want to agree on compensation before giving permission and not have the Epstein episode - I would ask for Clay Bucholz and Will Middlebrooks if the Sox hire Farrell - that should end the conversation, but if the Sox are agreeable to that type of compensation I would allow them to interview Farrell.
Are there any metrics which can give a decent projection of manager wins?
I was disappointed in the .500 record. But there were some moves made that hurt the chances of winning now but may have been for future winning. Some of these moves IMO as follows:
1) Drabek & Reyes given jobs in the opening day rotation, rather than earn them. Zep & Mills were not given a fair chance.
2) Gutting the pen to obtain Rasmus was definitely a move to improve the team long term but at a huge short term cost.
It is too bad that Cecil, Hill & Snider played nowhere close to expectations. But that provided opportunities for others.
Farrell, IMO cooperated and bore the growing pains very well IMO. One thing I would like to understand is why Rauch & FF were always given the closer role. They failed often enough IMO to entertain the thought of using someone else in the role. Since neither had sustained success in the first half I don't know why they simply switched back I forth.
I would not like to see a plan like this if we were winning at a higher rate.
Dewey, not sure where the habit originates. just somehting I picked up on when I moved down here in '97. There is a University of North Texas in Denton, so the phrase is already common. I have never hward anyone refer to South Texas or East Texas so commonly, though West Texas (Lubbock etc.) is not uncommon. My guess is that leaders of the large cities in North Texas that are NOT Dallas or Fort Worth (like Arlington!) don't like being grouped as part of the "Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex," but that's just a guess. Maybe, unlikely, it's to differentiate from DFW Airport.
Just a guess and now it's a habit for me. That's all I got!
He committed to the Jays
He is not from Boston
He is not a Red Sox hero from his playing days
If I was AA I would wait to see if Farrell asked to be allowed to interview. If he wanted to I would let him go, for compensation of course.
However, in-game management is a small part of the manager's job and Farrell could be fantastic (or learning how to be fantastic) at some of the other aspects of the job. He must have impressed Anthopolous a great deal during the original job interview(s) and I'm sure the front office has made their own evaluations of how he did during the year. I'm not sure I'd want a person managing my favourite ballclub who had wanted at least the opportunity to try win the manager's role of a division rival. If they chose to let him interview or leave, I wouldn't be unhappy with the prospect of Dave Martinez or Sandy Alomar or Brian Butterfield managing the Jays next year and the Jays gaining some form of reasonable compensation.
Charlie, I'm not aware of any metrics which give any reasonable indication of manager wins. The best work on the subject has been done by Chris Jaffe and his book from a couple of years ago is well-worth reading if you are interested in the subject. His analysis includes metrics that attempt to measure managerial performance, but he admits that he has to build in a number of assumptions and there are certainly shortcomings. It's as good an effort as I've seen, but his strength lies as much with his summaries and insights into the tendencies of different managers. That being said, it's approach looks at major managers through history as he institutes something like a cut-off of 500 games managed, as it's very difficult to get a read of a manager's tendencies over one or two seasons (and I believe the metrics are also far less useful over one season's worth of games). I don't know of any publicly-available metrics on the topic. All that is just a long-winded way of saying no, I don't think we can measure how many wins Farrell was worth (or cost us) this year.
Based on Anthopoulos's comments that staff are free to go if they want to
I thought AA wouldn't stand in someone's way if they could get a promotion to work somewhere else. Farrell is talking about an ostensibly lateral move, albeit to a job with more prestige. If Farrell were to ask for permission to interview to manage somewhere else, I'm not sure how AA should take it were Farrell to not get the job, and have to settle for managing the Jays. That would seem like an awkward situation for both AA and Farrell.
However, in-game management is a small part of the manager's job and Farrell could be fantastic (or learning how to be fantastic) at some of the other aspects of the job. He must have impressed Anthopolous a great deal during the original job interview(s) and I'm sure the front office has made their own evaluations of how he did during the year. I'm not sure I'd want a person managing my favourite ballclub who had wanted at least the opportunity to try win the manager's role of a division rival. If they chose to let him interview or leave, I wouldn't be unhappy with the prospect of Dave Martinez or Sandy Alomar or Brian Butterfield managing the Jays next year and the Jays gaining some form of reasonable compensation.
Charlie, I'm not aware of any metrics which give any reasonable indication of manager wins. The best work on the subject has been done by Chris Jaffe and his book from a couple of years ago is well-worth reading if you are interested in the subject. His analysis includes metrics that attempt to measure managerial performance, but he admits that he has to build in a number of assumptions and there are certainly shortcomings. It's as good an effort as I've seen, but his strength lies as much with his summaries and insights into the tendencies of different managers. That being said, it's approach looks at major managers through history as he institutes something like a cut-off of 500 games managed, as it's very difficult to get a read of a manager's tendencies over one or two seasons (and I believe the metrics are also far less useful over one season's worth of games). I don't know of any publicly-available metrics on the topic. All that is just a long-winded way of saying no, I don't think we can measure how many wins Farrell was worth (or cost us) this year.
I'm also in the camp that would be fine with Farrell being traded to the Sox for a good young player. I'm certainly not married to her.
Mick, another off topic Texas themed q for you: I'm going to Guatemala in Feb and on the way back (to Canada) I have a 7 hour stop over at DFW and I was wondering if the ballpark in Arlington and/or DT Dallas was close enough to take a trip to during my layover. I have obviously checked maps but I don't know how easy it is to get around and how traffic is. It'll be a Sunday in Feb so I'm assuming traffic wouldn't be too bad.
More of the same post-season in terms of his introspection and understanding how to process and learn from his rookie year.
That said, I'm not SO attached that I'd be upset if he left (other than feeling a bit insulted like the unloved step-child next to Boston).
With two provisos - one, impressive compensation. I'm not under any illusions about Buchholz but that would obviously do it. Maybe Jed if I thought he could be a reliable productive 2B next year? Do they have a solid LHRP to pass along?
Two - we hire Francona to replace him.
Based on internet blogs and message boards, every single MLB manager is an idiot except for Joe Maddon. I always laugh whenever a fan says they could do a better job than “insert MLB manager”. In game strategy probably makes up less than %50 of a manager’s responsibilities but this is what is most visible to the public.
I wasn’t a fan of Farrell’s work in the 1st half (and to some degree in the 2nd half). The running game was out of control. I remember their was a game where the Jays were down by several runs late in the game and he called for a squeeze play. Guys like McCoy, Patterson, and Thames hit at the top/near the top of the order far too much for my liking. For all of the talk of Farrell being a sabermetric savvy skipper, it was odd to hear him praise Lind due to his high amount of RBI’s. While you can question his strategy, it appears he has the respect of his players (which might be the most important role of his job). Farrell was recently on the Fan 590 and he came across as a very intelligent person. He specifically mentioned the hitters weren’t patient enough and this was something that was going to be addressed. If Farrell really wants to go to the Red Sox than the Jays should work out a deal. You don’t want a manager that has his heart in another place.
And that's only because Joe Maddon uses big words.
Still, I think his biggest asset is the low budget he deals with. Put him in a Yankee uniform and he'd quickly become an idiot like the rest, unless he won the World Series every year (Joe Torre was quickly an idiot they could live without as soon as they stopped winning the WS every year).
Heck, even winning isn't enough normally as Cito Gaston would be quick to point out - many viewed him as an idiot in 92 an 93.
Seen the arrow on the door post
Saying "this land is condemned"
All the way from New Orleans to Jerusalem
I travelled through East Texas
Where many martyrs fell
But I know no one can sing the blues like Blind Willie McTell
Of course, he's from Minnesota...
Actually, it really is unanimous. There are no exceptions. You just need to look at the Tampa fan sites. Because Rays' fans definitely think Maddon is an idiot.
Warnings about "small sample size" are probably especially appropriate in this case...
QFT
Albert, let's not fight
I've been driving 'cross West Texas all the night
When a storm came down upon me
Why you're angry is beyond me
Is there something I could do to make it right?
Albert, you're my man
Nobody can love me like you can
You're coming round behind me
Lover don't you try and find me
I'll look you up when I think you'll understand
Albert, Ronald Regan died today
I pulled over the to the side of the highway and I cried today
Black clouds hang above us
Does anybody love us?
Though he's from Nova Scotia.
When I leave this town
you will not see me cry
an East Texas town with all the wells run dry
looking up to sky, waiting for a change
no sign of rain
and if I find life beyond the interstates
past the rusting rails and the cattle grates
maybe I will call from a truckstop on the way
I'll say "howdy y'all still no sign of rain"
The howdy y'all doesn't sound at all forced when she sings it.
Both the GM & Manager IMO will take a lot of heat if they continue to miss the playoffs. Maybe they will get a reprieve for 1 or 2 years. I also think NYY & Boston need to win a WS in the next 5 years or the fan unrest could cost jobs.
If Farrell can win 88 games in 2012 and 2013 for the Jays, both he & AA will look like they are making progress IMO.
I see Boston as a risk for any manager with reasonable security. There are no guarantees in baseball.
Farrell stays!!!!
If people complained about Tito, they would have a seizure watching Farrell."
I presumably saw the same games as the SOSH poster, but I don't think Farrell was anywhere near that bad. My biggest gripe was Farrell's "traditional" closer usage, but he can hardly be blamed for conventional baseball wisdom being moronic in this area.
I think you are vastly underestimating how highly coveted managerial positions are, especially in the high profile markets. There will not be a shortage of resumes landing on Cherington's desk.
"I have no idea and no comment on what's happening in Boston," Farrell wrote to sportsnet.ca. "I am focused right now on preparing for what is best for the Blue Jays in 2012."
A statement along the lines of "I am not interested in the Boston job" would have been more definitive.
Seriously, if not Darvish, he's our man (assuming you like the physical of course)
Oh, and my previous comment about the Boston position - I was trying to say it would be nuts for Farrell given he already has a sweet job to take it.
Obviously if, say for example, Tory Louvello had a chance he'd risk it.
Oswalt being a Mississippi boy (within less than 200 miles of me easily) and said to be a sort of a hombody...my guess is that he would really really like to play for the Rangers, and that they would be our main competition (well, the Cards are probably his first choice but with Albert to deal with I assume they have bigger fish to fry) and that, from his perspective, you'd have to pay quite a premium to get him to play in Canada.
I might be wrong about that.
But here's the thing - the Rangers are said to be very interested in Darvish too, and I wonder if an interest in either of these two might distract from pursuing the other.
throw in Sabathia possibly distracting the Yankees to an extent (particularly if other teams make a play for him) and there might be an increased opportunity of NinjaGM action coming away with either Darvish or Oswalt.
John Northey
There are not many front-of-the-rotation Starters available. Do you have any ideas?
I also think that no matter what the team says a player like Felix Hernandez is available in trade for the right price. He's getting paid close to market value the next 3 seasons and I can't see the Mariners being ready to take down LAA or TEX within that time frame, considering their offense consists of hoping for Smoak & Ackley to make something of themselves. Then again I know how I would have felt about the notion of the Jays trading Halladay prior to 2008, so it could be unreasonable to suggest the Ms would move Felix for anything short of Lawrie & Rasmus.