It's commonplace to say that the MVP will (or should) come from a contender. Are you wondering just how often it does?
Wonder no more.
How often? Well...pretty much all the time, essentially.
The modern MVP award begins in 1931. There have been 80 seasons since then, and 161 MVP awards handed out (the NL had a tie in 1979.) More than two-thirds of those awards (111) of them went to players on first-place teams, and another 31 went to players on second place teams. So let's see... 88% of the time, your MVP comes from a 1st or 2nd place team.
Further bad news for Jose Bautista: of the 161 winners, 154 of those men played on teams that had better records than the 2011 Blue Jays, who were a .500 team. Were Bautista to win the award, he would be the third player to win the award playing for a .500 team (Robin Yount in 1989 and Hank Sauer in 1952) were the others. Only 5 times has the award gone to a player on a team with a losing record. Three Cubs managed this in the NL (Ernie Banks in 1958 and 1959, Andre Dawson in 1987). Two modern shortstops won the award in the AL (Cal Ripken in 1991 and Alex Rodriguez in 2003) despite playing for teams that lost more than 90 games.
While I had the information in front of me, I thought it would be fun to find out how the awards were distributed by position. As you probably know, no Designated Hitter has ever won the award. Don Baylor is commonly cited as the exception, but he actually played LF more often than DH in 1979. Some other position notes: Stan Musial is generally regarded as one of the three greatest left fielders of all time (and if I actually had to form my Ideal Team, I'd prefer Musial in LF over anyone, Bonds and Williams included) - but Musial wasn't actually playing LF in any of the three seasons when he won the MVP.
And while I believe it's often been stated that Robin Yount was the first man to win the award at two different positions (a feat matched by Alex Rodriguez), this would overlook not just Musial but Hank Greenberg as well.
Anyway, MVPs by position:
Catchers (15) AL-8, C-7
First Base (29) AL-14, NL-15
Second Base (10) AL-4, NL-6
Third Base (15) AL-6, NL-9
Shortstop (15) AL-8, NL-7
Left Field (22) AL-9, NL-13
Centre Field (14) AL-9, NL-5
Right Field (21) AL-11, NL-10
Starting Pitcher (16) AL-8, NL-8
Relief Pitcher (4) AL-3, NL-1
I also wondered how often the MVP winner led the league in certain categories. Of the 141 hitters to win the award, here's how often they led the league in:
BAVG (27) AL-10, NL-17
HR (39) AL-19, NL-20
RBI (56) AL-30, NL-26
R (39) AL-24, NL-15
SLUG (56) AL-26, NL-30
OBP (34) AL-15, NL-19
OPS+ (49) AL-23, NL 26
Twice the MVP winner led the league in all seven of these categories. This involves winning the Triple Crown, which hasn't happened in a generation. Those players were Frank Robinson in 1966, and Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Two other men won the Triple Crown and led their league in six of these seven categories: Joe Medwick in 1937, Mickey Mantle in 1956 (both missed out on OBP.) Jimmie Foxx, the 1933 MVP, who also had a Triple Crown season, led the league in five of these categories - he missed out on OBP and Runs.
In 1942, Ted Williams managed to lead the AL in all seven of these categories without winning the MVP, a feat unique in the annals of the game. He was the runner-up to Joe Gordon of the Yankees, a dangerous hitter and a superb defensive player, but still... While Williams did win the MVP twice, he didn't win the MVP in either of his two Triple Crown seasons (he was also the runner-up to Joe DiMaggio in 1947.)
Chuck Klein, who had won the MVP the previous season, also finished second during his Triple Crown season (Carl Hubbell won the award in 1934.) Klein led the NL in six of these seven categories (he missed out on Runs Scored.)
Most remarkably, Lou Gehrig came in fifth in MVP voting during his Triple Crown season in 1934. Like Klein, Gehrig led the league in six of these categories (he also missed out on Runs Scored), but the voters weren't sufficiently impressed. He placed behind three members of the pennant winning Tigers (MVP Mickey Cochrane, Charley Gehringer, and Schoolboy Rowe) and his own teammate, Lefty Gomez.
If you're going to lead your league in just one of these offensive categories, only three of them seem to give you a chance at winning the MVP. You'll never guess which one gives you the best chance. Oh, you probably will. That's right - an RBI champ who led the league in none of the other categories has still managed to win the MVP 12 times. It's been a while since it actually happened (Juan Gonzalez 1998). The other hitting categories that put you into the MVP discussion are BAVG (9 times, but only twice in the last quarter-century - Terry Pendleton 1991, Ichiro Suzuki 2001.) The new favourite is Runs Scored, which has now produced an MVP 8 times, and half of those come from the current millennium - Vladimir Guerrero 2004, Albert Pujols 2005, Jimmy Rollins 2007, Dustin Pedroia 2008.)
On the other hand, you can win the MVP without leading your league in any of these categories. Of the 141 hitters to win the MVP, 35 of them didn't lead the league in any of these categories. Ten of those men, as you might expect, were catchers: (Cochrane 1934, Hartnett 1935, Berra 1951-1954-1955, Campanella 1951-1955, Howard 1963, Munson 1976, Rodriguez 1999.) Catchers seldom manage to lead the league in any of the offensive categories, and most of these men were pretty good MVP choices. Six of these MVPs were shortstops (Marion 1944, Boudreau 1948, Rizzuto 1950, Wills 1962, Ripken 1991, Tejada 2002) and three were second basemen (Frisch 1931, Gordon 1942, Fox 1959) which also sort of figures. Wills and Frisch both led the NL in Stolen bases the year they won their MVPs, but.. stolen bases? Really? Marion won the award almost entirely because of his glove, and while Rizzuto and Fox were good offensive players (in their MVP years) most of their value came from their glovework.
It's somewhat surprising to find that six first basemen (McCormick 1940, Powell 1970, Garvey 1974, Stargell 1979, Thomas 1993, Morneau 2006) and one left fielder (Gibson 1988) were able to win the MVP without leading the league in any of these seven categories. I'm actually old enough to remember the Stargell and Gibson awards - they both won because of their "leadership" and, believe it or not, they probably deserved it. Each man had an enormous impact on what I like to call the team's culture...
The MVP has been given to a pitcher 20 times in these 80 seasons. For 25 years (1931-1955) there was an MVP award but no Cy Young Award. In those 25 years, pitchers (all but one of them starters - the one reliever was Jim Konstanty in 1950) won the MVP 11 times. For 11 years (156-1966) there was one Cy Young Award, for the best pitcher in the majors: twice the Cy Young winner was also his league's MVP (Newcombe 1956, Koufax 1963). Since 1967, of course, there has been a Cy Young Award for the best pitcher in each league. In the last 44 seasons since the dual Cy Youngs began to be awarded, just seven pitchers, four of them starters, have been able to add the MVP to their Cy Young Award (Gibson 1968, McLain 1968, Blue 1972, Clemens 1986). During the same period, three relief pitchers have won the MVP (Fingers 1981, Hernandez 1984, Eckersley 1992). Each also won the Cy Young, of course.
This year's contenders? Jose Bautista led the AL in three categories (HR, SLUG, OPS+), Miguel Cabrera in two (BAVG, OBP), and Curtis Granderson in two (R, RBI). Matt Kemp led the NL in four of these categories (R, RBI, HR, OPS+) while Ryan Braun (SLUG), Jose Reyes (BAVG) and Joey Votto (OBP) led the league in one category. Justin Verlander led the AL in all three starting pitcher categories, as did Clayton Kershaw in the NL. Verlander is probably the favourite to actually win the AL MVP, and Kershaw doesn't seem to be in the NL discussion.
Well, let's make a Data Table...
Wonder no more.
How often? Well...pretty much all the time, essentially.
The modern MVP award begins in 1931. There have been 80 seasons since then, and 161 MVP awards handed out (the NL had a tie in 1979.) More than two-thirds of those awards (111) of them went to players on first-place teams, and another 31 went to players on second place teams. So let's see... 88% of the time, your MVP comes from a 1st or 2nd place team.
Further bad news for Jose Bautista: of the 161 winners, 154 of those men played on teams that had better records than the 2011 Blue Jays, who were a .500 team. Were Bautista to win the award, he would be the third player to win the award playing for a .500 team (Robin Yount in 1989 and Hank Sauer in 1952) were the others. Only 5 times has the award gone to a player on a team with a losing record. Three Cubs managed this in the NL (Ernie Banks in 1958 and 1959, Andre Dawson in 1987). Two modern shortstops won the award in the AL (Cal Ripken in 1991 and Alex Rodriguez in 2003) despite playing for teams that lost more than 90 games.
While I had the information in front of me, I thought it would be fun to find out how the awards were distributed by position. As you probably know, no Designated Hitter has ever won the award. Don Baylor is commonly cited as the exception, but he actually played LF more often than DH in 1979. Some other position notes: Stan Musial is generally regarded as one of the three greatest left fielders of all time (and if I actually had to form my Ideal Team, I'd prefer Musial in LF over anyone, Bonds and Williams included) - but Musial wasn't actually playing LF in any of the three seasons when he won the MVP.
And while I believe it's often been stated that Robin Yount was the first man to win the award at two different positions (a feat matched by Alex Rodriguez), this would overlook not just Musial but Hank Greenberg as well.
Anyway, MVPs by position:
Catchers (15) AL-8, C-7
First Base (29) AL-14, NL-15
Second Base (10) AL-4, NL-6
Third Base (15) AL-6, NL-9
Shortstop (15) AL-8, NL-7
Left Field (22) AL-9, NL-13
Centre Field (14) AL-9, NL-5
Right Field (21) AL-11, NL-10
Starting Pitcher (16) AL-8, NL-8
Relief Pitcher (4) AL-3, NL-1
I also wondered how often the MVP winner led the league in certain categories. Of the 141 hitters to win the award, here's how often they led the league in:
BAVG (27) AL-10, NL-17
HR (39) AL-19, NL-20
RBI (56) AL-30, NL-26
R (39) AL-24, NL-15
SLUG (56) AL-26, NL-30
OBP (34) AL-15, NL-19
OPS+ (49) AL-23, NL 26
Twice the MVP winner led the league in all seven of these categories. This involves winning the Triple Crown, which hasn't happened in a generation. Those players were Frank Robinson in 1966, and Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Two other men won the Triple Crown and led their league in six of these seven categories: Joe Medwick in 1937, Mickey Mantle in 1956 (both missed out on OBP.) Jimmie Foxx, the 1933 MVP, who also had a Triple Crown season, led the league in five of these categories - he missed out on OBP and Runs.
In 1942, Ted Williams managed to lead the AL in all seven of these categories without winning the MVP, a feat unique in the annals of the game. He was the runner-up to Joe Gordon of the Yankees, a dangerous hitter and a superb defensive player, but still... While Williams did win the MVP twice, he didn't win the MVP in either of his two Triple Crown seasons (he was also the runner-up to Joe DiMaggio in 1947.)
Chuck Klein, who had won the MVP the previous season, also finished second during his Triple Crown season (Carl Hubbell won the award in 1934.) Klein led the NL in six of these seven categories (he missed out on Runs Scored.)
Most remarkably, Lou Gehrig came in fifth in MVP voting during his Triple Crown season in 1934. Like Klein, Gehrig led the league in six of these categories (he also missed out on Runs Scored), but the voters weren't sufficiently impressed. He placed behind three members of the pennant winning Tigers (MVP Mickey Cochrane, Charley Gehringer, and Schoolboy Rowe) and his own teammate, Lefty Gomez.
If you're going to lead your league in just one of these offensive categories, only three of them seem to give you a chance at winning the MVP. You'll never guess which one gives you the best chance. Oh, you probably will. That's right - an RBI champ who led the league in none of the other categories has still managed to win the MVP 12 times. It's been a while since it actually happened (Juan Gonzalez 1998). The other hitting categories that put you into the MVP discussion are BAVG (9 times, but only twice in the last quarter-century - Terry Pendleton 1991, Ichiro Suzuki 2001.) The new favourite is Runs Scored, which has now produced an MVP 8 times, and half of those come from the current millennium - Vladimir Guerrero 2004, Albert Pujols 2005, Jimmy Rollins 2007, Dustin Pedroia 2008.)
On the other hand, you can win the MVP without leading your league in any of these categories. Of the 141 hitters to win the MVP, 35 of them didn't lead the league in any of these categories. Ten of those men, as you might expect, were catchers: (Cochrane 1934, Hartnett 1935, Berra 1951-1954-1955, Campanella 1951-1955, Howard 1963, Munson 1976, Rodriguez 1999.) Catchers seldom manage to lead the league in any of the offensive categories, and most of these men were pretty good MVP choices. Six of these MVPs were shortstops (Marion 1944, Boudreau 1948, Rizzuto 1950, Wills 1962, Ripken 1991, Tejada 2002) and three were second basemen (Frisch 1931, Gordon 1942, Fox 1959) which also sort of figures. Wills and Frisch both led the NL in Stolen bases the year they won their MVPs, but.. stolen bases? Really? Marion won the award almost entirely because of his glove, and while Rizzuto and Fox were good offensive players (in their MVP years) most of their value came from their glovework.
It's somewhat surprising to find that six first basemen (McCormick 1940, Powell 1970, Garvey 1974, Stargell 1979, Thomas 1993, Morneau 2006) and one left fielder (Gibson 1988) were able to win the MVP without leading the league in any of these seven categories. I'm actually old enough to remember the Stargell and Gibson awards - they both won because of their "leadership" and, believe it or not, they probably deserved it. Each man had an enormous impact on what I like to call the team's culture...
The MVP has been given to a pitcher 20 times in these 80 seasons. For 25 years (1931-1955) there was an MVP award but no Cy Young Award. In those 25 years, pitchers (all but one of them starters - the one reliever was Jim Konstanty in 1950) won the MVP 11 times. For 11 years (156-1966) there was one Cy Young Award, for the best pitcher in the majors: twice the Cy Young winner was also his league's MVP (Newcombe 1956, Koufax 1963). Since 1967, of course, there has been a Cy Young Award for the best pitcher in each league. In the last 44 seasons since the dual Cy Youngs began to be awarded, just seven pitchers, four of them starters, have been able to add the MVP to their Cy Young Award (Gibson 1968, McLain 1968, Blue 1972, Clemens 1986). During the same period, three relief pitchers have won the MVP (Fingers 1981, Hernandez 1984, Eckersley 1992). Each also won the Cy Young, of course.
This year's contenders? Jose Bautista led the AL in three categories (HR, SLUG, OPS+), Miguel Cabrera in two (BAVG, OBP), and Curtis Granderson in two (R, RBI). Matt Kemp led the NL in four of these categories (R, RBI, HR, OPS+) while Ryan Braun (SLUG), Jose Reyes (BAVG) and Joey Votto (OBP) led the league in one category. Justin Verlander led the AL in all three starting pitcher categories, as did Clayton Kershaw in the NL. Verlander is probably the favourite to actually win the AL MVP, and Kershaw doesn't seem to be in the NL discussion.
Well, let's make a Data Table...
Team Led the League in...As I said a few weeks back, I'd vote for Bautista and Kemp. But I think Bautista has close to zero chance of actually winning, unless the vote is somehow split between Cabrera, Granderson, and Verlander. Anyway, a narrative in support of Justin Verlander seems to have taken shape. Believe the narrative. Kemp has a much better chance in the NL, but I rather think Braun will edge him out.
Year Lg MVP Team Pos Finish HR RBI BAVG R SLUG OBP OPS+ W ERA K SV
1931 AL Grove PHA sp 1 W ERA K
1931 NL Frisch STL 2b 1
1932 AL Foxx PHA 1b 2 HR RBI R SLUG OBP OPS+
1932 NL Klein PHI rf 4 HR R SLUG
1933 AL Foxx PHA 1b 3 HR RBI BAVG SLUG OPS+
1933 NL Hubbell NYG sp 1 W ERA
1934 AL Cochrane DET c 1
1934 NL Dean STL sp 1 W K
1935 AL Greenberg DET 1b 1 HR RBI
1935 NL Hartnett CHC c 1
1936 AL Gehrig NYY 1b 1 RBI
1936 NL Hubbell NYG sp 1 W ERA
1937 AL Gehringer DET 2b 2 BAVG
1937 NL Medwick STL lf 4 HR RBI BAVG R SLUG OPS+
1938 AL Foxx BOS 1b 2 RBI SLUG OBP OPS+
1938 NL Lombardi CIN c 4 BAVG
1939 AL DiMaggio NYY cf 1 BAVG
1939 NL Walters CIN sp 1 W ERA K
1940 AL Greenberg DET lf 1 HR RBI SLUG
1940 NL McCormick CIN 1b 1
1941 AL DiMaggio NYY cf 1 RBI
1941 NL Camilli BRO 1b 1 HR RBI
1942 AL Gordon NYY 2b 1
1942 NL Cooper STL sp 1 W ERA
1943 AL Chandler NYY sp 1 W ERA
1943 NL Musial STL rf 1 BAVG SLUG OBP OPS+
1944 AL Newhouser DET sp 2 W K
1944 NL Marion STL ss 1
1945 AL Newhouser DET sp 1 W ERA K
1945 NL Cavarretta CHC 1b 1 BAVG OBP
1946 AL Williams BOS lf 1 R SLUG OBP OPS+
1946 NL Musial STL 1b 1 BAVG R SLUG OPS+
1947 AL DiMaggio NYY cf 1
1947 NL Elliott BSN 3b 3
1948 AL Boudreau CLE ss 1
1948 NL Musial STL rf 2 RBI R SLUG OBP OPS+
1949 AL Williams BOS lf 2 HR RBI R SLUG OBP OPS+
1949 NL Robinson BRO 2b 1 BAVG
1950 AL Rizzuto NYY ss 1
1950 NL Konstanty PHI rp 1 SV
1951 AL Berra NYY c 1
1951 NL Campanella BRO c 2
1952 AL Shantz PHA sp 4 W
1952 NL Sauer CHC lf 5 HR RBI
1953 AL Rosen CLE 3b 2 HR RBI R SLUG OPS+
1953 NL Campanella BRO c 1 RBI
1954 AL Berra NYY c 2
1954 NL Mays NYG cf 1 BAVG SLUG OPS+
1955 AL Berra NYY c 1
1955 NL Campanella BRO c 1
1956 AL Mantle NYY cf 1 HR RBI BAVG R SLUG OPS+
1956 NL Newcombe BRO sp 1 W
1957 AL Mantle NYY cf 1 R
1957 NL Aaron MLN rf 1 HR RBI R
1958 AL Jensen BOS rf 3 RBI
1958 NL Banks CHC ss 5 HR RBI SLUG
1959 AL Fox CHW 2b 1
1959 NL Banks CHC ss 5 RBI
1960 AL Maris NYY rf 1 RBI SLUG
1960 NL Groat PIT ss 1 BAVG
1961 AL Maris NYY rf 1 HR RBI R
1961 NL Robinson CIN rf 1 SLUG OPS+
1962 AL Mantle NYY cf 1 SLUG OBP OPS+
1962 NL Wills LAD ss 2
1963 AL Howard NYY c 1
1963 NL Koufax LAD sp 1 W ERA K
1964 AL Robinson BAL 3b 1 RBI
1964 NL Boyer STL 3b 1 RBI
1965 AL Versalles MIN ss 1 R
1965 NL Mays SFG cf 2 HR SLUG OBP OPS+
1966 AL Robinson BAL rf 1 HR RBI BAVG R SLUG OBP OPS+
1966 NL Clemente PIT rf 3
1967 AL Yastrzemski BOS lf 1 HR RBI BAVG R SLUG OBP OPS+
1967 NL Cepeda STL 1b 1 RBI
1968 AL McLain DET sp 1 W
1968 NL Gibson STL sp 1 ERA K
1969 AL Killebrew MIN 3b 1 HR RBI OBP
1969 NL McCovey SFG 1b 2 HR RBI SLUG OBP OPS+
1970 AL Powell BAL 1b 1
1970 NL Bench CIN c 1 HR RBI
1971 AL Blue OAK sp 1 ERA
1971 NL Torre STL 3b 2 RBI BAVG
1972 AL Allen CHW 1b 2 HR RBI SLUG OBP OPS+
1972 NL Bench CIN c 1 HR RBI
1973 AL Jackson OAK rf 1 HR RBI R SLUG OPS+
1973 NL Rose CIN lf 1 BAVG
1974 AL Burroughs TEX rf 2 RBI
1974 NL Garvey LAD 1b 1
1975 AL Lynn BOS cf 1 R SLUG
1975 NL Morgan CIN 2b 1 OBP OPS+
1976 AL Munson NYY c 1
1976 NL Morgan CIN 2b 1 SLUG OBP OPS+
1977 AL Carew MIN 1b 4 BAVG R OBP OPS+
1977 NL Foster CIN lf 2 HR RBI R SLUG
1978 AL Rice BOS lf 2 HR RBI SLUG OPS+
1978 NL Parker PIT rf 2 BAVG SLUG OPS+
1979 AL Baylor CAL lf 1 RBI R
1979 NL Hernandez STL 1b 3 BAVG R
1979 NL Stargell PIT 1b 1
1980 AL Brett KCR 3b 1 BAVG SLUG OBP OPS+
1980 NL Schmidt PHI 3b 1 HR RBI SLUG OPS+
1981 AL Fingers MIL rp 1 SV
1981 NL Schmidt PHI 3b 1 HR RBI R SLUG OBP OPS+
1982 AL Yount MIL ss 1 R SLUG OPS+
1982 NL Murphy ATL cf 1 RBI
1983 AL Ripken BAL ss 1 R
1983 NL Murphy ATL cf 2 RBI SLUG OPS+
1984 AL Hernandez DET rp 1
1984 NL Sandberg CHC 2b 1 R
1985 AL Mattingly NYY 1b 2 RBI
1985 NL McGee STL cf 1 BAVG
1986 AL Clemens BOS sp 1 W ERA
1986 NL Schmidt PHI 3b 2 HR RBI SLUG OBP OPS+
1987 AL Bell TOR lf 2 RBI
1987 NL Dawson CHC rf 6 HR RBI
1988 AL Canseco OAK rf 1 HR RBI SLUG OPS+
1988 NL Gibson LAD lf 1
1989 AL Yount MIL cf 4
1989 NL Mitchell SFG lf 1 HR RBI SLUG OPS+
1990 AL Henderson OAK lf 1 R OBP OPS+
1990 NL Bonds PIT lf 1 SLUG OPS+
1991 AL Ripken BAL ss 5
1991 NL Pendleton ATL 3b 1 BAVG
1992 AL Eckersley OAK rp 1 SV
1992 NL Bonds PIT lf 1 R SLUG OBP OPS+
1993 AL Thomas CHW 1b 1
1993 NL Bonds SFG lf 2 HR RBI SLUG OBP OPS+
1994 AL Thomas CHW 1b 1 R SLUG OBP OPS+
1994 NL Bagwell HOU 1b 2 RBI R SLUG OBP OPS+
1995 AL Vaughn BOS 1b 1 RBI
1995 NL Larkin CIN ss 1
1996 AL Gonzalez TEX rf 1
1996 NL Caminiti SDP 3b 1
1997 AL Griffey SEA cf 1 HR RBI R SLUG
1997 NL Walker COL rf 3 HR SLUG OBP
1998 AL Gonzalez TEX rf 1 RBI
1998 NL Sosa CHC rf 2 RBI R
1999 AL Rodriguez TEX c 1
1999 NL C.Jones ATL 3b 1
2000 AL Giambi OAK 1b 1 RBI OBP OPS+
2000 NL Kent SFG 2b 1
2001 AL Suzuki SEA rf 1 BAVG
2001 NL Bonds SFG lf 2 SLUG OBP OPS+
2002 AL Tejada OAK ss 1
2002 NL Bonds SFG lf 2 BAVG SLUG OBP OPS+
2003 AL Rodriguez TEX ss 4 HR R SLUG
2003 NL Bonds SFG lf 1 SLUG OBP OPS+
2004 AL Guerrero ANA rf 1 R
2004 NL Bonds SFG lf 2 BAVG SLUG OBP OPS+
2005 AL Rodriguez NYY 3b 1 HR R SLUG OPS+
2005 NL Pujols STL 1b 1 R
2006 AL Morneau MIN 1b 1
2006 NL Howard PHI 1b 2 HR RBI
2007 AL Rodriguez NYY 3b 2 HR RBI R SLUG OPS+
2007 NL Rollins PHI ss 1 R
2008 AL Pedroia BOS 2b 2 R
2008 NL Pujols STL 1b 4 SLUG OPS+
2009 AL Mauer MIN c 1 BAVG SLUG OBP OPS+
2009 NL Pujols STL 1b 1 HR R SLUG OBP OPS+
2010 AL Hamilton TEX lf 1 BAVG SLUG
2010 NL Votto CIN 1b 1 SLUG OBP
