Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Playoff Prediction Party

Once again, we delve into the playoff milieu with a prediction contest. Fame! Glory! Fabulous Prizes!* All await should you correctly predict who will win a series of series!

*Warning: prize is not fabulous.

In 2010 Bauxites had a down year, with only two of fifteen entrants correctly predicting the World Series would be won by the Giants. Thomas and John Northey were the Nostradami, with Mick Doherty and Gerry finishing in the bronze and whatever comes after bronze positions. So it seems like Bauxites have a lot to do to catch up with the rosterites. Will this be the year the inmates overtake the asylum? Maybe, I don't know.

Anyway, the way this works is, predict a winner for each series, and the number of games it will take them to win. 1 point for getting the LDS right, 2 for the LCS, and 3 for the Series. Plus a bonus point for guessing the correct number of games played in each series.

Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Detroit vs. New York

Arizona vs. Milwaukee
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia

I'll get us rolling.

Texas over Tampa in 5
New York over Detroit in 4

Miwaukee over Arizona in 3
Philadelphia over St. Louis in 4

Texas over New York in 6
Philly over Milwaukee in 5

Philly over Texas in 6.

Tiebreaker one: The World Series MVP will be a ___________ (name a position.) I'll say pitcher.
Tiebreaker two: The two teams in the World Series will combine for ____ HR. I'll say 14 (it was 11 in 5 games last year, FWIW/)

Ok gang, have at it. We'll close entries at 7 pm (halfway through the first game) but please don't try to game the system. We wouldn't want to have to take away your fabulous no-prize.

Posted by Anders on Friday, September 30 2011 @ 11:16 AM EDT.

Playoff Prediction Party | 73 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

John Northey - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#245058) #

Hrm...
I see Tampa as doing the Cinderella thing then Philly reminding them of just who is the best.
--------
Tampa Bay vs. Texas - Tampa in 5 (nothing easy for them)
Detroit vs. New York - Detroit in 4

Arizona vs. Milwaukee - Arizona in 4
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia - Philly in 3
--------
Tampa vs Detroit - Tampa in 7 (see a theme?)
Arizona vs Philly - Philly in 4
--------
Tampa vs Philly - Philly in 4
--------
Tiebreaker one:
The World Series MVP will be a pitcher (Halladay).
Tiebreaker two: The two teams in the World Series will combine for 5 HR.

Mike Green - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#245061) #

Anders, you have Texas defeating the Yankees in the LCS and then the Phillies defeating the Yankees in the Series. Wishing that the Yankees might lose in both the LCS and the Series might be your ticket to schadenfraude hell.

Texas over Tampa in 5
Yankees over Detroit in 5

Milwaukee over Arizona in 3
Philadelphia over Cardinals in 3.

Texas over Yankees in 7.
Philly over Milwaukee in 6.

Texas over Philly in 7.

Happy October, Mick.

mathesond - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#245062) #

Tampa Bay vs. Texas - Tampa, 4
Detroit vs. New York - Detroit, 5

Arizona vs. Milwaukee - Milwaukee, 4
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia - Philly, 3

Detroit over Tampa in 6
Phillies over Brewers in 7

Phillies in 5

Tiebreaker one: The World Series MVP will be a 2nd baseman
Tiebreaker two: The two teams in the World Series will combine for 9 HR. I'll say 14 (it was 11 in 5 games last year, FWIW/)

D. King - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#245063) #

Rays in 5
Tigers in 4
-------------
Brewers in 3
Phillies in 4
-------------
Tigers in 6 (I don't like it one bit)
Phillies in 5
-------------
Phillies in 5
-------------
MVP - a pitcher
Home runs - 8

Anders - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#245065) #

My secret plan for victory, revealed. Changes made.

AWeb - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#245066) #

Just to be different and not pick Philly: Tampa Bay vs. Texas - Texas, 4
Detroit vs. New York - Detroit, 4

Arizona vs. Milwaukee - Arizona, 5
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia - Philadelphia, 4

Texas over Detroit in 7
Arizona over Philadelphia in 6 Texas in 6 Tiebreaker one: The World Series MVP will be a Centerfielder
Tiebreaker two: The two teams in the World Series will combine for 18 HR.

Mike Green - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#245068) #

I forgot the tiebreakers. WS MVP will be a second baseman. Texas and Philly will hit 15 homers in their 7 game thriller (but only 45 runs will be scored).

Ron - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#245069) #

Tampa over Texas in 3
New York over Detroit in 4

Miwaukee over Arizona in 4
Philadelphia over St. Louis in 4

Tampa over New York in 5
Philly over Milwaukee in 6

Tampa over Philly in 6.

Tiebreaker one: The World Series MVP will be a James Shields
Tiebreaker two: The two teams in the World Series will combine for 8 HR's

hypobole - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#245070) #

Rays in 5 (Texas is better, but Maddon surprisingly outmanages Washington): Yanks in 4 (Fister brought back to earth)

Brewers in 4; Phillies in 3

----------

Rays in 7; Phillies in 6

----------

Phillies in 7 (TBays bullpen gives it up)

----------

MVP will be a pitcher, though I have no idea who, 13 HR's total

Nick Holmes - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#245072) #

Rays over Rangers in 5
Yankees over Tigers in 3
Brewers over Diamondbacks in 5
Phillies over Cards in 4

Rays over Yankees in 6
Brewers over Phillies in 7

Brewers over Rays in 6

The World Series MVP will be a pitcher
The two teams in the World Series will combine for 11 HR.

Mick Doherty - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#245073) #

Texas over Tampa in 3
New York over Detroit in 5

Miwaukee over Arizona in 5
Philadelphia over St. Louis in 3

Texas over New York in 7
Milwaukee shocks Philadelphia in 6

Texas over Milwaukee in the "Ohmigod, broadcast networks hate this matchup" Series, in 6.

DaveB - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#245074) #

A littie love for the Tigers here.

Texas over Tampa in 4
Detroit over New York in 4

Milwaukee over Arizona in 3
Philadelphia over St. Louis in 4

Detroit over Texas in 6
Philly over Milwaukee in 7

Detroit over Philly in 6.

The World Series MVP will be a 1B
12 HR.

Thomas - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#245076) #

Rays in 4.
Tigers in 5.

Brewers in 4.
Phillies in 3.

Phillies in 7.
Tigers in 6.

Phillies in 6.

The WS MVP will be a pitcher.
The teams will combine for 11 homers.

greenfrog - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#245077) #

TB vs Texas: Texas in 4
NY vs Detroit: NY in 5

Milwaukee vs AZ: Milwaukee in 4
Philly vs St. Louis: Philly in 4

Texas over NY in 6
Philly over Milwaukee in 6

Philly over Texas in 6

WS MVP will be a pitcher
The two teams will combine for 11 HR

Magpie - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#245085) #

Phillies in 3
D'Backs in 4
Yankees in 4

I can't decide between Tampa and Texas - does Texas' superior pitching trump Tampa's superior offense? I think it will. Rangers in 5.

hypobole - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#245088) #

Tampa's superior offense?

Magpir - Is this opinion or do you know of any numbers that actually support this?

Magpie - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#245089) #

I should continue?

Phillies over Arizona in 5
Texas over New York in 6

Texas over Philadelphia in 6

MVP - a pitcher
HRs - 10

BalzacChieftain - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#245090) #

ALDS:

Texas over Tampa in 4.

Yankees over Tigers in 5.

NLDS:

Phillies over Cards in 4.

Brewers over DBacks in 3.

ALCS:

Texas over Yankees in 6

Phillies over Brewers in 7

WS: Texas over Phillies in 6

Tiebreaker: WS MVP will be a center fielder. Combined home runs in the WS will be 13.

Mick Doherty - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#245091) #

Ohm the tie-breakers .... right.

The World Series MVP will be a superutilityman-slash-DH (looking at you ehre, Miichale Young!)

The teams will combine to hit a stunningly low five home runs.

hypobole - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#245094) #

Sorry, the above should be Magpie (my finger seems to be in the zone as often as a Kyle Drabek breaking ball)

Magpie - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#245095) #

Tampa's superior offense?

Absolutely! (I've been waiting for someone to query this!) Ballpark effects, people. These two teams play in the most extreme parks in the AL. So take Texas out of their extreme hitter's park (best in the universe outside the state of Colorado) and take Tampa out of their extreme pitcher's park. What happened this season? Tampa scored 397 runs in neutral parks, Texas just 357.

Ah, but the shoe is on the other foot when you look at the pitching. In neutral parks, Texas pitchers posted a very spiffy 3.19 ERA; Tampa's staff was at 4.04.

electric carrot - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#245100) #

(soon to be unplugged turnip)

Texas over Tampa in 5
Detroit over New York in 5

Miwaukee over Arizona in 5
Phillies over St. Louis in 5

Detroit over Texas in 7
Phillies of Milwaukee in 7

Phillies over Detroit in 6

Tiebreaker one: The World Series MVP will be a Pitcher
Tiebreaker two: The two teams in the World Series will combine for 13 HR.

Ron - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#245101) #

Anybody here have the payroll numbers for the 8 playoff teams?

On the surface it looks like we have a nice mix of high, mid, and low payroll teams in the post-season.

hypobole - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#245102) #

Magpie - are AL East parks neutral? How about AL West parks? AL East pitching staffs vs AL West pitching staffs? This has to factor into the numbers also. if you start removing home field advantages/disadvantages'

I guess looking at what they averaged at each opposing park might be the more fair assesment.

vw_fan17 - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#245106) #

Here's my "hey, it's Friday" prediction:

Rays in 4
Tigers in 5 (Verlander pitches 2 shutouts!)

Brewers in 5
Phillies in 4

------------------

Rays in 7
Phillies in 6

------------------

Phillies in 6

MVP: catcher
Total HRs: 7

Lugnut Fan - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#245107) #

Tigers in 5

Rays in 4

Phillies in 4

Brewers in 4

Tigers over Rays in six

Brewers over Phillies in six

Tigers / Brewers World Series cancelled because no one wants to broadcast it.

I'll take Tigers in seven with the WS MVP being a first baseman (I'm looking at you Victor Martinez, not Cabrera as Cabrera is slated for third base in the NL parks if the D happens to slide into the AL Champs spot). The teams will combine for 15 HR's.

Mike Green - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#245108) #

I have thought that Texas was going to win it all for some time now because of their superior pitching. It is true that Maddon's courageous decision to give Matt Moore the ball for game 1 does change things some.

greenfrog - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#245110) #

Ron, you can find payroll info at http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

It's amazing how much the Rays have punched above their weight in recent years.

Magpie - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#245112) #

are AL East parks neutral? How about AL West parks?

No, they're not. While every park in baseball, except San Francisco, was a better place to hit than Tampa Bay, all of the other 4 AL East parks were better than average hitter's parks. Simlarly, while every park in baseball, except Colorado, is a better place to pitch than Texas, all three other AL West parks were better than average pitching parks. Tampa Bay and Texas did not play the same number of games in those parks, and it likely did make some difference. Here's how their road schedules broke down:

at BAL - TEX  3, TBR 9
at BOS - TEX  3, TBR 9
at CHW - TEX  5, TBR 4
at CLE - TEX  4, TBR 3
at DET - TEX  6, TBR 3
at KCR - TEX  2, TBR 3
at LAA - TEX 10, TBR 3
at MIN - TEX  4, TBR 6
at NYY - TEX  6, TBR 9
at OAK - TEX 10, TBR 4
at SEA - TEX 10, TBR 7
at TBR - TEX  6, TBR 0
at TEX - TEX  0, TBR 8
at TOR - TEX  3, TBR 4

at ATL - TEX  3, TBR 0
at FLA - TEX  0, TBR 3
at HOU - TEX  3, TBR 3
at MIL - TEX  3, TBR 3
at PHI - TEX  3, TBR 0

But while it's probably a factor, it just isn't enough. The difference between the Ballpark in Arlington and the Trop is simply massive. Let me refer you once again to these numbers, posted a few weeks back.

Team            GPL   RS     RA    RUNS        GPL   RS     RA    RUNS        PARK
               home  home   home   home       road  road   road   road        

Texas           74    440    377    817        72    317    254    571        1.39
Toronto         73    352    380    732        73    329    301    630        1.16
Boston          71    392    347    739        74    390    282    672        1.15
New York AL     73    425    305    730        71    374    275    649        1.09
Baltimore       72    315    383    698        72    294    376    670        1.04
Detroit         73    359    326    685        72    331    319    650        1.04
Chicago AL      71    286    308    594        73    301    291    592        1.03
Cleveland       72    294    320    614        71    307    319    626        0.97
Kansas City     73    318    340    658        74    330    370    700        0.95
Oakland         71    305    273    578        74    287    348    635        0.95
Minnesota       72    253    355    608        73    302    359    661        0.93
Seattle         74    243    289    532        71    256    309    565        0.90
Los Angeles AL  74    283    253    536        71    311    305    616        0.83
Tampa Bay       74    271    262    533        70    345    283    628        0.80

uglyone - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#245115) #

Rangers, Rangers, Rangers.

Lylemcr - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#245116) #

Texas over Tampa in 4

NY over Detroit in 5

Milwaukee over Arizona in 3

Philly over St. Louis in 3

Milwaukee over Philly in 6

Texas over NY in 6

Milwaukee over Texas in 6

I just like the depth and makeup of Milwaukee.

Mike Green - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#245117) #

Texas played as a moderately favourable offensive park in 2009 and 2010. It has bounced around a little more than typically over the years, but if you take the longer view, it is probably one of the best environments for hitting but maybe not the best.

Tampa has played as a poor offensive ballpark for years. HRs are harder to hit despite the short dimensions. The elevation above sea level (29 feet) is probably the lowest or close to it among ML parks and that contributes for sure. There might be something peculiar to the dome and humidity levels too.

Alex Obal - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#245118) #

For some reason, I can't picture a moon shot inside Tropicana Field. It's weird.

Magpie - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#245119) #

Tampa has played as a poor offensive ballpark for years.

It's actually a recent development. Through 2006, the Trop was quite literally the most neutral park ever - runs scored in Rays games through their first 9 seasons were almost identical at home and on the road. But in 3 of the last 5 seasons, it's skewed very heavily in favour of the pitchers (one time it was neutral, once it was a moderate pitcher's park.)

Alex Obal - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#245120) #

Wonder how much of it can be attributed to a change not in the park itself, but to the way the games have been played there since 2008, when the Rays abruptly became really good.

Go big or go home, as usual:

Rays beat Rangers in 4
Yankees beat Tigers in 4

Phillies beat Cardinals in 3
Brewers beat Diamondbacks in 4

Yankees beat Rays in 7
Brewers beat Phillies in 7

Brewers beat Yankees in 6

World Series MVP will be a (righthanded, starting) pitcher.
19 homers in the Series

greenfrog - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#245123) #

Just curious: how does the Phillies front 3 of Doc, Lee and Hamels stack up to the all-time great playoff rotations? Pretty well, I would guess. Both individually and as a trio, they have fabulous, dazzling stats.

The only thing I wonder about is whether, just maybe, they might start to tire a bit as the playoffs go on. I mean, Doc and Lee could be at 260-270 IP by the time the WS rolls around. And both racked up a ton of innings last year too. I don't expect this to happen, but it's possible.

Magpie - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#245125) #

how does the Phillies front 3 of Doc, Lee and Hamels stack up to the all-time great playoff rotations?

Obviously it can't compare to Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz, which is all by itself at the top of the mountain. No one's going there. It's probably up with some of the others. Koufax-Drysdale-Osteen. Grove-Earnshaw-Walberg. Probably many others that were as good for a year or two, but may not have had a lot of staying power.

greenfrog - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#245130) #

Magpie, you may be right, but pick any single year in which Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz fronted the rotation in the playoffs. I would be interested to see whether their combined season stats from that year are better than those of Doc/Lee/Hamels in 2011 (and if so, by how much). It might be closer than you think.

There - the gauntlet thrown down!

Original Ryan - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#245135) #

Guaranteed* to be wrong:

Detroit over Yankees in 4
Texas over Tampa Bay in 5

Philadelphia over St. Louis in 3
Milwaukee over Arizona in 4

Detroit over Texas in 6
Philadelphia over Milwaukee in 5

Philadelphia over Detroit in 4

*Not actually guaranteed, but I sure ain't betting any money on this.

smcs - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#245139) #

Magpie - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#245140) #

pick any single year in which Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz fronted the rotation in the playoffs.

Excellent idea. I'm just going to use ERA+ for now:

PHA 2011 (463) - Halladay 164, Lee 161, Hamels 138

ATL 1993 (411) - Maddux 172, Glavine 127, Smoltz 112 (Avery went 18-6 ERA+ of 138)
ATL 1995 (536) - Maddux 262, Glavine 139, Smoltz 135
ATL 1996 (458) - Maddux 162, Smoltz 149, Glavine 147
ATL 1997 (468) - Maddux 189, Glavine 141, Smoltz 138 (Neagle went 20-5, with ERA+ of 140 as well)
ATL 1998 (499) - Maddux 187, Glavine 168, Smoltz 144
ATL 1999 (376) - Smoltz 141, Maddux 126, Glavine 109

They also score at 489 in 1994, when there was no post-season (but that was all because of Maddux anyway.)

This is much, much too crude to take seriously. But in a way, it actually does make the real point, which is this: the Phillies trio has had one outstanding season. That's happened many times. Whereas the Atlanta trio...

Chuck - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#245142) #

Random thought: As I hear Buck talk about the difficulty of hitting depending on the shadows, has there been any statistical analysis of how stadia play at different times of the day? Or any study about shade at home plate and sun at the mound and vice versa, in general? Something that is more specific than just "day vs night."

A broader question: Has Buck Martinez ever uttered anything ever that is based on anything concrete? Or is his every utterance drawn from the grand book of broadcaster cliches?

I will enjoy watching this series but will not enjoy having to endure him any further this season. I thought I was a free man as of Wednesday. At least Mr. Tabler has been sent home for the winter.

Ron - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#245144) #

Ron, you can find payroll info at http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

It's amazing how much the Rays have punched above their weight in recent years.

Here are the rankings:

1. Yankees
2. Phillies
10. Tigers
11. Cardinals
13. Rangers
17. Brewers
23. D-Backs
29. Rays

This just confirms what I thought. You have high/mid/low payroll teams in the playoffs. Spending a lot of money doesn't guarantee you a playoff spot.

Chuck - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#245145) #

But in a way, it actually does make the real point, which is this: the Phillies trio has had one outstanding season. That's happened many times. Whereas the Atlanta trio...

Given how pitching and defense win championships, I'm guessing the Braves won a ton of World Series in the 1990s.

smcs - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#245146) #

A broader question: Has Buck Martinez ever uttered anything ever that is based on anything concrete? Or is his every utterance drawn from the grand book of broadcaster cliches?

I've heard the sun vs shade trumpeted by every broadcaster during the playoffs (weird start-times for non-east-coast teams) and Jon Morosi just tweeted that Matt Moore is succeeding partly because of the shadows, but CJ Wilson isn't throwing strikes, so he's not taking advantage of the shadows. That sounds like media members are filling a narrative more than anything. Players might say they didn't hit well because of the shadows, but if they hit well, it's because of skill.

And Buck is better when he doesn't have to call the game as well. The Buck-as-play-by-play guy always seemed like a bad idea.

Magpie - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#245148) #

The Buck-as-play-by-play guy always seemed like a bad idea.

Oh, agreed. The play-by-play guy is much more important than the analyst, but you need a good, experienced play-by-play guy. A really good professional broadcaster. That person makes the colour guy - partially by the questions he asks, but even more by the portion of the action he describes. If what he describes is minimal, the colour guy simply fills in with the Blindingly Obvious. Whereas if the play-by-play covers all that in his description of the action, the colour guy's contributions will, inevitably, be more substantial.

I used to think you needed a baseball guy, but both Dan Shulman (who's really a basketball announcer) and Jim Hughson (who I think of as a hockey guy) were very good anyway. I didn't think much of Don Chevrier or Brian Williams - both fine, experienced sports play-by-play guys, but I think they both formed their work habits on huge events: boxing championship fights, the Olympics. Generally no baseball game (except Game Seven and the like) has that much at stake, and it's simply irritating to behave as if it does.

Gerry - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#245150) #

Go big or go home....

Tampa Bay vs. Texas - Tampa in 4
Detroit vs. New York - New York in 4

Arizona vs. Milwaukee - Milwaukee in 4
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia - Philly in 3

--------

Tampa vs New York - Tampa in 6
Milwaukee vs Philly - Philly in 6

--------

Tampa vs Philly - Tampa in 7

--------
Tiebreaker one:

The World Series MVP will be BJ Upton

Tiebreaker two: The two teams in the World Series will combine for 9 HR.

electric carrot - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#245151) #

(soon to be unplugged turnip)

This just confirms what I thought. You have high/mid/low payroll teams in the playoffs. Spending a lot of money doesn't guarantee you a playoff spot.

Uh no. Money also doesn't buy happiness. But it sure helps!

greenfrog - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#245152) #

All right, I guess now that I've thrown down the gauntlet...

Looking a bit more closely at the stats, here's a slightly more detailed comparison of the 1995 Braves front three (the year in which they racked up the highest total ERA+ according to Magpie's chart) and the 2011 Phillies trio:

Phillies (2011): 682.1 IP, 574 H, 190 ER, 47 HR, 121 BB, 652 K, 2.51 ERA, 1.018 WHIP

Braves (1995): 601 IP, 495 H, 174 ER, 32 HR, 161 BB, 501 K, 2.61 ERA, 1.092 WHIP

Focusing only on which trio had the best combined single season, I would argue (based on the above stats, which don't take into account ballpark and other comparative factors) that in a head-to-head matchup, the two trios are close to a tossup, with a possible edge to the Phillies. The Phillies workhorses pitched over 80 more combined innings, allowed 40 fewer walks, and had a better K rate, ERA, and superior WHIP. The Braves luminaries, on the other hand, had better H/9 IP and HR/9 IP ratios.

greenfrog - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#245153) #

So I guess my question remains: in the modern era, has any playoff starting trio had a better combined single season than the 2011 Phillies?

Magpie - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#245154) #

The 80 extra innings isn't really significant because 1995 was a short season (144 games). The Braves guys each missed at least three turns, maybe four - over a full schedule they would have definitely pitched those innings. And the ballparks do need some consideration. Citizens Bank is a nice place to hit, but Fulton County's nickname was "The Launching Pad," and for good reason.

Gerry - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#245155) #

Of this years 8 playoff teams, six of them have appeared in a world series over the last 5 years. The two rookies are Milwaukee and Arizona.

St Louis, Philadelphia and the Yankees were winners.

Texas, Tampa and Detroit were WS losers.

Jonny German - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#245157) #

Tampa Bay over Texas in 4
Detroit over New York in 5

Arizona over Milwaukee in 4
Philadelphia over St. Louis in 3

Detroit over Tampa Bay in 5

Philadelphia over Arizona in 5

Philadelphia over Detroit in 6

Tiebreaker one: The World Series MVP will be a 2nd baseman.

Tiebreaker two: The two teams in the World Series will combine for 8 HR.

hypobole - Saturday, October 01 2011 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#245160) #

Spending a lot of money doesn't guarantee you a playoff spot.
But it usually guarantees interesting things happen.

Of the 6 highest spending teams, the Yankees and Phillies have made the playoffs each of the past 3 years. None of the other 4 made the postseason this year or last. 3 of the 4' GM's who failed to reach the playoffs despite pushing their payrolls into the spending stratosphere have been relieved of their duties within the past year. With Minaya, Hendry and now Regins gone, Theo Epstein is the last man standing.

As for Boston's remarkable September run, despite huge dollars shelled out to Dice K, Drew, Lackey and Crawford, one has to wonder how much longer Papa John Henry will allow young Theo access to his credit card.

Magpie - Saturday, October 01 2011 @ 01:30 AM EDT (#245161) #

Setting aside career value, as we must as the three Braves pitchers are done, their careers are complete whereas Halladay, Lee and Hamels are still building their records - the two trios are pretty well matched. To match what the Atlanta trio did repeatedly even once is a hell of an accomplishment. Lee and Glavine are quite well matched for peak value, and so are Smoltz and Hamels. Obviosuly the staff ace tips the scales for Atlanta, because as great as Halladay has been (and that's been very great indeed)... Maddux was much, much greater.

Mike Green - Saturday, October 01 2011 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#245170) #

At this point, I would take away one of those "muches". At the end of his career, Maddux had thrown 5000 innings with a 132 ERA+, and a so-so ish playoff record (Smoltz did much, much better there). Let us see where Doc is when he finally hangs them up.

Magpie - Saturday, October 01 2011 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#245173) #

Well, 2010 is probably Doc's best season - 21-10, 2.44, ERA+ of 167. That's roughly equivalent to what Maddux averaged over an eleven-year (1992-2002) span (19-9, 2.47, ERA+ of 171.) So - Doc's peak speed equals Maddux at cruising speed. For eleven years. Both pitchers have the ugly numbers at the start of the career, but while we have all of Maddux's decline phase we have none of Doc's.

Oh, take away one "much." But you have to leave one of them there.

greenfrog - Saturday, October 01 2011 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#245175) #

Magpie, good point about the shortened 1995 season - I hadn't noticed that. The Braves trio's best combined season (1995) therefore looks to be very, very close to the Phillies trio's 2011 season. Depends which you prefer: a lower HR rate and marginally lower H/9 IP rate (Braves), or a better BB/K/9 IP ratio and WHIP (Phillies).

Doc's career will likely fall short of Maddux's, but I do think you have to wait until both of their careers are over before making definitive pronouncements. Doc is probably the best pitcher of his era and is still going strong (and, besides being in great shape, is extremely economical in his pitching approach). Heck, Mo Rivera is 41 and hasn't had an ERA above 1.91 since he was 37. Strange things can happen in baseball.

Magpie - Saturday, October 01 2011 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#245180) #

In his last 5 plate appearances against Roy Halladay (he went 0-3 the first time they met), Lance Berkman has hit a HR, an RBI single, been intentionally walked twice, and (today) hit a three run HR.

Doc has found the NL's Johnny Damon!

Chuck - Saturday, October 01 2011 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#245181) #

The greatness of Berkman's season -- and his career, for that matter -- has gone extremely under-reported.

greenfrog - Saturday, October 01 2011 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#245182) #

Well, since that AB Berkman is 0-2 (with a K) as Doc piles up the zeros and Philly vaults back into the lead...should be an interesting last few innings.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, October 01 2011 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#245185) #

I want Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Detroit to win. The rest is not that important.

Hodgie - Sunday, October 02 2011 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#245189) #

"So - Doc's peak speed equals Maddux at cruising speed."

Of course, it would also make a significant difference cruising through the NL all those years. I am withholding my judgement until Doc's peak includes a few more years outside of the AL East.

greenfrog - Sunday, October 02 2011 @ 05:11 AM EDT (#245190) #

After Berkman's HR, Doc gave up one more hit, a single, to lead off the second inning. He then retired the next 21 batters in a row (and looked like he would have run that number to 24, had he not been pulled by Charlie Manuel after the Phillies turned it into a blowout in the eighth).

Apparently only one pitcher has retired 21 batters in a row in the postseason before: Don Larsen in 1956.

Yeah, Doc is kinda good.

greenfrog - Sunday, October 02 2011 @ 05:47 AM EDT (#245191) #

Correction: according to Elias, Larsen is the *last* pitcher to retire 21 in a row in a postseason game. (Jayson Stark interprets this information to mean that it has happened "once before" - not sure if this is accurate.) Either way, it's an impressive accomplishment.

Magpie - Sunday, October 02 2011 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#245192) #

I think Stark meant that Larsen was the once before. I could be wrong, but I think the closest anyone else has come is Jim Lonborg in 1967, who retired 19 in a row in his one-hitter.

grjas - Sunday, October 02 2011 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#245194) #

"Spending a lot of money doesn't guarantee you a playoff spot."

No but it dramatically improves the odds. I did a spreadsheet a couple of years ago that looked at the % of times teams made the playoffs based on the quartile of their spending since 1996. Top quartile teams were four times- 4X- as likely to make the playoffs as bottom quartile teams. There are no guarantees in life, but I'd take those odds any time.

electric carrot - Sunday, October 02 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#245195) #

(Soon to be unplugged turnip)

Top quartile teams were four times- 4X- as likely to make the playoffs as bottom quartile teams.

grjas you should publish this. As far as I'm concerned this is the worst written about topic in the sports pages (and that's saying something.) People who would go to great pains to tell you that anecdotal stats don't reveal much about a player, will for some reason choose precisely that kind of evidence about teams payrolls and come to incredibly over-reaching conclusions. It's very irritating.

vw_fan17 - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#245254) #

Looking a bit more closely at the stats, here's a slightly more detailed comparison of the 1995 Braves front three (the year in which they racked up the highest total ERA+ according to Magpie's chart) and the 2011 Phillies trio:

Phillies (2011): 682.1 IP, 574 H, 190 ER, 47 HR, 121 BB, 652 K, 2.51 ERA, 1.018 WHIP
Braves (1995): 601 IP, 495 H, 174 ER, 32 HR, 161 BB, 501 K, 2.61 ERA, 1.092 WHIP

(I realize I'm kinda late to the discussion)
Sure, those numbers seem somewhat similar, but you have to remember: scoring is down drastically this year compared to 1995. This year, Doc's 2.35 ERA gets him an ERA+ of 164. In comparison, in 1996, a 2.72 ERA got Maddux an ERA+ of 162. Thus, the 2.61 ERA is actually BETTER, relatively speaking, than the 2.51 of the '11 Phillies. The 2.61 from the '95 Braves might translate (very rough guess) into a 2.25 ERA in 2011. As well, all the other stats like WHIP, ER, etc would have to be adjusted. I think ERA+ works for this, but not sure.

Not saying the '11 Phillies aces aren't great, but just taking counting stats isn't the best way to compare different eras..

grjas - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#245364) #

grjas you should publish this.

I'll try to find the file on the weekend. It's an excel spreadsheet so not sure how easy it will be to post but let me first see if i can find it as it was 2 or 3 years ago

Gerry - Saturday, October 08 2011 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#245595) #

A quick review says no-one picked all four division series winners. DaveB and Electric Carrot appear to be the only ones with 3 right.

grjas - Monday, October 10 2011 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#245677) #

EC- I posted this data in Magpie's Monday thread since this one is dead. Don't know how to post detailed spreadsheet extracts into dabox so gave a few lins summary. Can post more if people are interested and someone tells me how, but the summary chart in the other post is probably enough

Gerry - Wednesday, October 19 2011 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#245902) #

Approx one third of the prognosticators picked Texas to reach the WS. No-one picked St Louis.

About half of those who said Texas would reach the WS have them winning it all, including Mike Green, Mick, Magpie, Balzac and aweb.

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