And why did it happen? A tale of four teams...
First the AL. Tampa Bay made the turn for September with a 74-61 record, which put them 7.5 games behind the second place Yankees. They had a good month in September, going 17-10 - mind you, this was not quite as well as they'd played in August, when they went 18-10. But they really didn't do anything all that special. The Rays offense was a fair bit better in the final month. Having averaged 4.26 runs through the end of August, they increased that to 4.89 runs per game in the final month. This was almost entirely due to the efforts of Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton:
NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC RC27
Kelly Shoppach 11 29 6 6 0 0 4 4 18 1 11 0 0 .207 .281 .621 .902 5.3 6.00
Casey Kotchman 26 90 7 22 1 0 2 7 29 10 14 1 0 .244 .349 .322 .671 10.5 3.90
Ben Zobrist 24 87 13 20 3 0 5 17 38 10 20 3 0 .230 .306 .437 .743 12.2 4.71
Evan Longoria 27 90 21 26 6 0 7 22 53 27 16 2 1 .289 .454 .589 1.043 23.7 9.13
Sean Rodriguez 24 65 6 16 2 0 2 8 24 8 10 1 0 .246 .370 .369 .740 10.2 5.00
Desmond Jennings 26 106 21 17 1 1 2 5 26 13 27 6 1 .160 .258 .245 .504 7.3 2.15
B.J. Upton 26 99 21 33 10 1 5 20 60 17 29 9 3 .333 .432 .606 1.038 25.7 9.64
Matt Joyce 23 68 7 18 5 0 2 16 29 9 16 2 0 .265 .370 .426 .797 11.8 6.14
Johnny Damon 25 78 12 19 3 1 2 12 30 15 13 6 2 .244 .380 .385 .765 13.9 5.77
Reid Brignac 14 43 2 8 2 0 0 5 10 1 11 0 0 .186 .205 .233 .437 1.5 1.14
John Jaso 13 37 4 8 2 0 1 3 13 1 10 0 0 .216 .237 .351 .588 2.6 2.36
Brandon Guyer 13 35 6 7 1 0 1 1 11 1 6 0 0 .200 .222 .314 .537 2.0 1.78
Jose Lobaton 12 30 2 4 1 0 0 0 5 4 7 0 0 .133 .257 .167 .424 0.6 0.57
Sam Fuld 7 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 .200 .333 .200 .533 0.4 2.97
Dan Johnson 6 6 2 1 0 0 1 1 4 1 1 0 0 .167 .286 .667 .952 0.8 3.73
Elliot Johnson 6 6 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 .167 .286 .333 .619 0.8 4.40
Russ Canzler 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 .333 .400 .333 .733 0.7 6.43
Totals 27 888 132 210 38 3 34 123 356 121 199 31 7 .236 .340 .401 .741 129.1 4.82
Meanwhile, Tampa's pitching performed at the same general level of efficiency in the final month as it had all year long - they allowed 3.79 runs per game in the first five months, 3.81 runs per game in the final month.
NAME GP GS W L SV HLD IP H ER HR BB SO WHIP ERA
Jeremy Hellickson 5 5 2 0 0 0 33.2 20 10 4 16 11 1.07 2.67
James Shields 5 5 3 2 0 0 40.1 30 12 4 13 26 1.07 2.68
David Price 6 6 0 2 0 0 33.2 30 15 4 16 34 1.37 4.01
Wade Davis 5 5 3 2 0 0 34.2 29 16 4 13 24 1.21 4.15
Jeff Niemann 5 5 2 2 0 0 23.1 27 18 6 9 16 1.54 6.94
Brandon Gomes 12 0 1 0 0 3 8 4 1 1 2 10 0.75 1.13
Joel Peralta 10 0 0 0 4 4 10 4 1 1 1 11 0.50 0.90
Cesar Ramos 10 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 5 2 1 4 7 1.04 2.08
Jake McGee 10 0 4 1 0 1 9.1 9 4 0 1 8 1.07 3.86
J.P. Howell 10 0 0 1 0 4 4.2 7 2 1 0 3 1.50 3.86
Juan Cruz 8 0 0 0 0 2 5.1 2 2 1 3 3 0.94 3.38
Kyle Farnsworth 8 0 0 0 3 0 6.2 6 3 3 4 9 1.50 4.05
Dane De La Rosa 6 0 0 0 0 0 6.1 10 6 1 1 7 1.74 8.53
Alex Torres 3 0 1 0 0 0 7 7 2 0 4 8 1.57 2.57
Andy Sonnanstine 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 2.00 0.00
Matt Moore 3 1 1 0 0 1 9.1 9 3 1 3 15 1.29 2.89
Totals 27 27 17 10 7 15 242 201 97 32 90 194 1.20 3.61
As we know, Tampa Bay didn't even come close to catching the Yankees, who went 16-12 themselves in September. The Rays were only able to gain a game and a half on the Bombers. They were, however, the beneficiary of Boston's utterly spectacular collapse, concerning which Theo Epstein had this to say:
We’re 7-20 in September, if we go 9-18 we’re where we want to be. At 9-18 is winning a third of your games, the worst teams in baseball win a third of their games. There’s no excuse. We did this to ourselves.
How on earth did it happen? Well, don't blame the hitters.
NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS RC RC27
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 18 68 8 11 3 1 3 10 25 1 27 1 0 .162 .174 .368 .542 3.9 1.82
Adrian Gonzalez 26 88 17 28 6 0 4 14 46 21 23 0 0 .318 .455 .523 .977 20.7 8.87
Dustin Pedroia 27 112 18 34 7 1 4 19 55 6 19 2 2 .304 .336 .491 .827 17.5 5.68
Marco Scutaro 26 93 18 36 12 0 2 21 54 10 6 0 0 .387 .438 .581 1.019 22.7 9.72
Mike Aviles† 20 48 9 15 4 0 2 7 25 2 8 0 2 .313 .340 .521 .861 6.8 4.86
Carl Crawford 23 91 12 24 9 2 1 8 40 4 21 1 1 .264 .295 .440 .734 11.7 4.66
Jacoby Ellsbury 27 120 22 43 11 1 8 21 80 8 13 3 4 .358 .400 .667 1.067 28.2 9.05
Darnell McDonald 18 34 4 13 2 0 1 6 18 3 3 0 0 .382 .421 .529 .950 7.6 9.28
Josh Reddick 20 59 6 16 5 0 1 2 24 2 11 0 0 .271 .306 .407 .713 7.5 4.70
David Ortiz 26 94 12 27 5 0 1 8 35 17 17 0 0 .287 .396 .372 .769 14.2 5.39
Jed Lowrie 14 43 5 6 1 1 2 7 15 4 10 1 0 .140 .213 .349 .562 3.0 2.14
Conor Jackson† 12 19 2 3 0 0 1 5 6 2 3 0 0 .158 .227 .316 .543 1.1 1.69
Kevin Youkilis 10 36 4 6 2 0 0 2 8 5 11 0 0 .167 .302 .222 .525 2.9 2.59
Ryan Lavarnway 10 16 2 2 0 0 2 5 8 0 4 0 0 .125 .125 .500 .625 0.9 1.60
Jason Varitek 9 26 3 2 0 0 1 4 5 3 11 0 0 .077 .200 .192 .392 0.3 0.32
J.D. Drew 4 15 0 4 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 0 0 .267 .267 .267 .533 1.0 2.46
Jose Iglesias 4 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 1.2 0.00
Totals 27 973 146 272 67 6 33 140 450 89 193 9 10 .280 .342 .462 .804 149.6 5.46
The Red Sox had averaged 5.40 runs per game through the end of August - they matched that exactly in the season's final month, scoring 5.41 runs per game. Jacoby Ellsbury and Marco Scutaro, in particular, were magnificent. The Boston offense was sufficiently potent that the limping and often unavailable Youkilis was barely missed. But the pitching. Oh dear, oh my, oh gosh. Boston's pitchers gave up 4.18 runs per game over the first five months of the season - in September, that figure exploded to a barely believable 6.37 runs per game. Erik Bedard had the best ERA (5.25) of any of the Boston starters, and being Erik Bedard he was only able to make 3 starts. John Lackey, Andrew Miller, and Kyle Weiland went a combined 0-6, 9.12. Even worse was Papelbon's heir-apparent Daniel Bard. In fact, Papelbon and Alfredo Aceves were the only key Boston pitchers who pitched well in the final month, and it was a clearly exhausted Papelbon who had the misfortune to be the last man standing on the mound when it all ended. But this collapse certainly wasn't on him and if Boston is still thinking of letting him walk and giving his job to Bard, they may want to reconsider.
NAME GP GS W L SV HLD IP H ER HR BB SO WHIP ERA
Erik Bedard† 3 3 1 0 0 0 12 15 7 1 9 12 2.00 5.25
Josh Beckett 4 4 1 2 0 0 23 24 14 5 7 26 1.35 5.48
Jon Lester 6 6 1 3 0 0 31.2 35 19 3 16 32 1.61 5.40
John Lackey 5 5 0 2 0 0 23.2 36 24 1 12 14 2.03 9.13
Tim Wakefield 5 4 1 2 0 0 24 23 14 4 11 21 1.42 5.25
Kyle Weiland 5 3 0 2 0 0 14.2 15 12 4 7 9 1.50 7.36
Andrew Miller 5 2 0 2 0 0 10 16 13 3 9 11 2.50 11.70
Alfredo Aceves 12 0 1 1 0 4 25 18 5 2 10 20 1.12 1.80
Daniel Bard 11 0 0 4 0 3 11 11 13 0 9 11 1.82 10.64
Matt Albers 10 0 0 0 0 2 10 11 8 4 5 15 1.60 7.20
Franklin Morales† 9 0 1 0 0 3 9 8 4 2 4 7 1.33 4.00
Jonathan Papelbon 8 0 0 1 2 0 9.2 9 4 0 2 15 1.14 3.72
Scott Atchison 7 0 1 0 0 0 12 9 2 0 3 7 1.00 1.50
Felix Doubront 8 0 0 0 1 0 7.2 8 5 0 6 5 1.83 5.87
Michael Bowden 7 0 0 0 0 0 11 7 7 3 7 14 1.27 5.73
Dan Wheeler 4 0 0 1 0 1 4.1 7 5 1 0 2 1.62 10.38
Trever Miller† 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.00
Junichi Tazawa 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 1 1 4 1.33 6.00
Totals 27 27 7 20 3 13 243.2 255 158 34 118 226 1.53 5.84
The basic shape of the National League wild card was exactly the same, of course. At the end of August, the Cardinals had a 72-64 record, which put 8.5 games behind them the 80-55 Braves. The Braves had a terrible September - not quite as bad as Boston, as the Braves actually did post the 9-18 record that Theo Epstein was longing for. But the Cardinals played even better than Tampa, going 18-8 in September.
So what happened to Atlanta? They went bad on both sides of the ball. They had been scoring 4.1 runs per game - in the final month, they dropped off all the way to 3.22 runs per game. It was a collective falloff - with the exception of Alex Gonzalez, no one had a particularly good month. McCann and Freeman didn't hit much, and the bench bats were especially awful.
NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC RC27
Brian McCann 24 85 4 17 3 0 2 9 26 14 22 0 1 .200 .320 .306 .626 8.0 3.02
Freddie Freeman 26 93 8 21 4 0 3 12 34 11 20 0 0 .226 .305 .366 .670 9.7 3.41
Dan Uggla 27 101 16 24 4 0 6 14 46 16 31 0 0 .238 .347 .455 .803 16.2 5.54
Chipper Jones 26 93 10 25 7 0 4 11 44 10 19 0 0 .269 .330 .473 .803 14.0 5.03
Alex Gonzalez 19 60 8 22 7 0 3 12 38 3 15 0 0 .367 .385 .633 1.018 13.7 8.60
Martin Prado 26 110 8 26 2 1 2 7 36 3 11 0 0 .236 .257 .327 .584 8.4 2.63
Michael Bourn 27 118 15 32 5 3 0 7 43 7 25 14 2 .271 .315 .364 .679 15.8 4.68
Jason Heyward 25 66 8 17 2 1 1 4 24 13 20 3 0 .258 .375 .364 .739 10.3 5.33
Eric Hinske 21 23 0 3 0 0 0 1 3 3 7 0 0 .130 .231 .130 .361 0.4 0.60
Jack Wilson† 17 41 3 9 1 0 0 0 10 1 12 0 0 .220 .238 .244 .482 2.2 1.68
Matt Diaz† 15 32 2 8 1 0 0 1 9 1 8 1 0 .250 .265 .281 .546 1.5 1.46
Brooks Conrad 15 11 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 4 0 0 .091 .231 .091 .322 0.1 0.29
Jose Constanza 15 23 2 4 0 0 0 1 4 0 4 0 2 .174 .174 .174 .348 -0.5 -0.63
Antoan Richardson 9 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 1.1 15.08
David Ross 6 15 1 4 0 0 1 2 7 1 6 0 0 .267 .313 .467 .779 2.2 5.40
Tim Hudson 6 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 -1.6 -2.89
Mike Minor 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 .000 .111 .000 .111 -0.5 -1.44
Derek Lowe 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 -0.6 -2.25
Randall Delgado 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 -0.7 -2.82
Totals 27 919 87 216 36 5 22 83 328 86 220 19 5 .235 .300 .357 .657 98.6 3.53
NAME GP GS W L SV HLD IP H ER HR BB SO WHIP ERA
Randall Delgado 5 5 1 0 0 0 25 21 7 3 11 12 1.28 2.52
Mike Minor 5 5 1 1 0 0 27 29 11 6 11 25 1.48 3.67
Tim Hudson 6 6 3 2 0 0 38 38 16 2 11 32 1.29 3.79
Brandon Beachy 5 5 0 1 0 0 27.1 25 16 1 14 41 1.43 5.27
Derek Lowe 5 5 0 5 0 0 23.2 38 23 3 9 17 1.99 8.75
Eric O'Flaherty 14 0 1 0 0 7 14 11 0 0 1 9 0.86 0.00
Jonny Venters 13 0 0 1 0 7 12.1 13 7 1 10 13 1.86 5.11
Cristhian Martinez 13 0 0 1 0 2 17.2 11 5 1 3 12 0.79 2.55
Craig Kimbrel 12 0 1 1 5 0 11.1 9 6 2 7 20 1.41 4.76
Anthony Varvaro 11 0 0 2 0 0 15 8 4 1 5 7 0.87 2.40
Scott Linebrink 9 0 0 2 0 0 8.1 9 4 1 3 7 1.44 4.32
Arodys Vizcaino 8 0 0 1 0 2 6.2 13 7 1 4 4 2.55 9.45
Peter Moylan 6 0 1 1 0 1 4 4 1 0 1 4 1.25 2.25
Julio Teheran 3 1 1 0 0 0 11 11 6 2 4 8 1.36 4.91
Kris Medlen 2 0 0 0 0 0 2.1 1 0 0 0 2 0.43 0.00
Totals 27 27 9 18 5 19 243.2 241 113 24 94 213 1.37 4.17
The pitching fell off as well - not quite as much as the offense, but enough. The Braves had been allowing 3.63 runs per game - that increased to 4,.26 in the final month. Two of the starters, Lowe and Beachy struggled, but the bullpen may have been a bigger problem as Kimbrel and Venters, who had been so brilliant all year long, may have begun to feel the effects of their workload in the final month.
Which opened the door for the Cardinals. The Cardinals played better on both sides of the ball - their offense, which had been scoring 4.66 runs per game picked up the pace and scored almost five runs a game (4.92) in the final month. Leading the way... oh, I wonder who was leading the way for the Cardinals.
NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC RC27
Yadier Molina 23 82 9 28 8 0 2 14 42 10 6 1 0 .341 .409 .512 .921 16.9 7.85
Albert Pujols 26 107 18 38 7 0 5 20 60 8 8 2 0 .355 .393 .561 .954 22.0 7.91
Skip Schumaker 23 65 5 14 3 0 0 5 17 6 11 0 0 .215 .282 .262 .543 4.7 2.39
David Freese 20 67 11 19 6 1 2 11 33 7 19 1 0 .284 .351 .493 .844 9.2 4.53
Rafael Furcal 23 91 15 25 6 0 4 8 43 9 10 4 1 .275 .347 .473 .819 15.8 6.29
Matt Holliday 16 59 8 15 2 0 3 8 26 4 13 1 0 .254 .313 .441 .753 7.4 4.27
Jon Jay 25 89 14 27 5 1 2 5 40 3 12 0 2 .303 .344 .449 .793 13.5 5.30
Lance Berkman 25 91 16 34 5 1 1 13 44 14 16 2 2 .374 .457 .484 .941 19.7 8.88
Daniel Descalso 24 33 3 10 0 1 0 1 12 2 4 0 0 .303 .361 .364 .725 4.7 5.09
Allen Craig 20 52 12 17 4 0 5 12 36 2 11 0 0 .327 .364 .692 1.056 11.5 8.43
Ryan Theriot 19 31 3 7 3 1 0 5 12 5 3 0 1 .226 .333 .387 .720 3.0 2.76
Adron Chambers 18 8 2 3 0 1 0 4 5 0 1 0 0 .375 .375 .625 1.000 1.7 9.36
Corey Patterson 17 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 .000 .100 .000 .100 -0.5 -1.29
Nick Punto 16 26 4 8 2 0 1 7 13 6 6 0 0 .308 .424 .500 .924 6.1 7.89
Shane Robinson 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 .000 .125 .000 .125 -0.7 -2.52
Tyler Greene 7 2 3 2 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 2 0 1.000 1.000 1.500 2.500 2.1 0.00
Gerald Laird 6 13 2 3 1 0 0 1 4 2 3 0 0 .231 .333 .308 .641 1.5 4.08
Edwin Jackson† 6 11 1 3 0 0 0 1 3 0 4 0 1 .273 .250 .273 .523 0.4 1.19
Chris Carpenter 6 15 0 2 0 0 0 4 2 0 6 0 0 .133 .133 .133 .267 -0.2 -0.41
Jake Westbrook 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 -0.4 -1.38
Jaime Garcia 5 11 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 0 0 .091 .091 .091 .182 -0.5 -1.43
Tony Cruz 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0.3 4.55
Kyle Lohse 4 8 1 3 1 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 .375 .375 .500 .875 1.5 6.56
Brandon Dickson 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0.4 12.04
Totals 26 889 128 261 54 6 25 122 402 80 151 13 7 .294 .354 .452 .807 138.9 5.48
Lance Berkman and Yadier Molina provided excellent support for Albert the Great, and Allen Craig did a fine job filling in for Matt Holliday over the last two weeks.
But even more important than the increased offense was the way the Cardinals' pitchers stepped up during the final month. They had been allowing 4.34 runs per game - they cut that down to 3.88, and this was mainly the work of their starters. None of them pitched poorly, and three of them - Lohse, Carpenter, and Garcia, who went a collective 8-0 - were very good indeed. The bullpen had some issues during the final month, but not enough to derail them...
NAME GP GS W L SV HLD IP H ER HR BB SO WHIP ERA
Kyle Lohse 4 4 2 0 0 0 26.1 25 4 0 5 22 1.14 1.37
Chris Carpenter 6 6 3 0 0 0 46 37 11 3 8 37 0.98 2.15
Jaime Garcia 5 5 3 0 0 0 30.2 30 9 2 4 24 1.11 2.64
Edwin Jackson 6 5 1 0 0 0 32.2 39 13 1 11 24 1.53 3.58
Jake Westbrook 5 5 1 2 0 0 23 29 11 1 12 20 1.78 4.30
Octavio Dotel 15 0 3 1 1 3 12.1 7 5 1 2 16 0.73 3.65
Marc Rzepczynski 15 0 0 3 0 5 10.2 12 9 1 8 17 1.88 7.59
Jason Motte 14 0 2 0 8 1 13.1 11 7 1 4 14 1.13 4.73
Fernando Salas 12 0 0 1 1 3 12.1 10 3 1 4 11 1.14 2.19
Kyle McClellan 12 0 2 1 0 1 11.2 12 10 5 6 6 1.54 7.71
Arthur Rhodes 10 0 0 0 0 1 4.1 4 2 1 1 3 1.15 4.15
Mitchell Boggs 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 5 2 0 2 2 1.17 3.00
Brandon Dickson 2 1 0 0 0 0 4.1 7 3 2 1 5 1.85 6.23
Eduardo Sanchez 1 0 1 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.00
Maikel Cleto 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 1.00 0.00
Totals 26 26 18 8 10 14 236 229 82 19 68 205 1.26 3.13
Of these four teams, the Cardinals were the one that made a big move at the trading deadline. You'd have to say it worked out just great for them. Their big trade with the Blue Jays netted them Edwin Jackson, who went 5-2, 3.78 and filled the gap left by Adam Wainwright's injury. Marc Rzepczynski didn't really pitch any better than Trever Miller had for the Cardinals, but he was adequate and did give them quite a few more innings. Octavio Dotel was a big upgrade on Miguel Batista. Acquiring these pitchers did cost them centre fielder Colby Rasmus, but that just let LaRussa officially give the CF job to Jon Jay, who played better for the Cardinals than Rasmus had anyway.