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If you believe this study, your answer is yes.

Baseball Prospectus' Mike Fast published the above study on the weekend and it certainly makes some stunning claims. The effect of a catcher on borderline pitch calls is huge, and Molina is by far the best in the majors, averaging about 35 runs per 120 games.

35 runs. That's 3.5 wins, roughly. Even as a replacement level hitter that would make Molina one of the top catchers in the game.

Of course, José is actually not signed for 2012. He's also gonna be 37.

Still, just when you think all the major stuff has been discovered in baseball analysis. A fascinating study.
Should José Molina be the Starting Catcher in 2012? | 52 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
The_Game - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 02:54 AM EDT (#244795) #
Truly the best backup in baseball. We always knew that having a good defensive catcher was incredibly valuable...now we're just moving into an age where we're able to quantify it.

Thomas - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 04:28 AM EDT (#244798) #
I don't believe he should be the starting catcher. I think that is probably taking the results of the survey too far, may overexpose the skill he does possess at framing pitches (in the same way offensive skill can be) and would also be counter-productive to Arencibia's long-term development, as well as any decisions the front office may have to make regarding how to handle Arencibia with d'Arnaud coming soon and possibly Perez and Jimenez not too far behind.

However, as I said when referencing the study on here a couple of days ago, there's a strong argument that Molina is more valuable than the return Toronto will receive based on his type B status.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 06:12 AM EDT (#244799) #
Should José Molina be the Starting Catcher in 2012?

I don't think anyone thinks that. But I can certainly justify him continuing in his current role.

I don't know if the Blue Jays have the same data or the same study, but it something they would have known already. Everybody already knows, and has known for a long, long time, that the more a catcher moves to receive a pitch, the less likely an umpire is to call that pitch a strike. (Major league teams have been putting that in their teaching manuals for more than forty years.) As the linked piece nicely demonstrates, what we might call Molina's receiving mechanics are nearly perfect. I'm pretty sure that everyone around the game who works with catchers was already aware of that, as well.

So I think the way he's been used this year might be ideal. Blue Jays pitchers have walked 8.6% of opposition batters working with Molina, 8.5% working with Arencibia. However, Molina has not caught even one inning by Romero and Cecil. Those are the two starters who really don't need his help, as they don't walk a lot of hitters. The pitchers who need Molina's brand of help are the guys like Drabek (and indeed Drabek was much, much more effective working with Molina this season.)
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#244802) #
Molina has given the Jays the best two offensive years of his career.  The fact that he is appearing in fewer games than previously probably helps.  He gets about the same number of at-bats, but is used sparingly as a late-game replacement.  I certainly agree with Magpie that the study doesn't support that Molina should get the full-time job, because you could not reasonably expect him to perform as well in that role.  He's the catching equivalent of the excellent 37 year old middle reliever.  You don't make them starters unless they throw a knuckleball. 

Some of us have taken Farrell to task for the lack of development of Morrow, Cecil and Drabek.  It would be interesting to see how Arencibia has fared on strike calls in 2011, and to consider what role he may have played in it, if any. 

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#244803) #
Really interesting article.  We all know about catcher's glove movements and how bad ones "push" pitches out of the strike zone, while receiving the ball quietly can frame a pitch.  Didn't realize that a catcher's head movements might be a huge factor.
AWeb - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#244811) #

This study has been a huge boon to the umpires. Since it came out, every game I watch with Arencibia catching, I've started mentally blaming missed strike calls on his catching mechanics. I know Arencibia doesn't have a large sample size, and his comparison is apparently one of the very best at it, but he really needs to work on this skill. To my eye, he's very "noisy" when catching the ball. His general catching skills seem to be degrading the last weeks, probably from being tired (specifically, his pitch blocking has been getting worse, again to my eyes only, there are probably numbers out there for this).

But the bad calls are still the umpires fault. I'm still mentally reconciling the concept of "catchers should be doing more to get/avoid bad calls" with decades of "the umpire is blind!".

uglyone - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#244813) #
The very idea that a catcher can have so much influence on strikezone calls is proof positive imo that we'd be much better off letting pitch f/x call the strikezone.

This study would seem to me to be a severe indictment of the quality of umpiring in mlb. to an almost comical degree.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#244815) #
This study would seem to me to be a severe indictment of the quality of umpiring in mlb. to an almost comical degree.

Agreed. Molina's skill, if the study is to be believed, is in his ability to deceive highly flawed decision-makers. It is not a baseball skill per se, like hitting and throwing, but a valuable talent given the construct of the game (i.e., one where ojective classifications of balls and strikes is too often subjective).

Bring on the robot umpires.
Jonny German - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#244817) #
This study would seem to me to be a severe indictment of the quality of umpiring in mlb. to an almost comical degree.

I agree with your premise, but I suspect it would be more fair to say "a severe indictment of the ability of humans to accurately call balls and strikes in real time".
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#244820) #
I can see the new pre-on-deck circle routine.  PED test clean.  Pitch-caller anthropomorphic data obtained.  The PA announcement (synthesized of course) comes on:  "Rickey Henderson says that Rickey Henderson has been cleared to bat."  A hush fulls over the crowd. 
AWeb - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#244822) #

The only issue with robots calling balls/strikes is the upper and lower ends of the zone. A properly calibrated system could call the edges of the plate within a negligible error. So, partial fix - umps don't call the corners, only pitch height. Or...You could record 10-15 plate appearances for each hitter and reliably define the stance/swing so as to define the upper and lower ends of the zone, at which point a player is stuck with that strike zone, or must petition to have it changed due to a stance/swing change. There...done. Impossible 15 years ago, pretty simple now. The catcher would have no impact on anything.

Cricket does something at or beyond this level of tracking to determine if a pitch that hit the batsman would have hit the wicket (blocking the wicket with your body is illegal and an automatic out). Tennis has an extremely precise tracking system with an entertaining method of using it. Golf now knows exactly, to the inch, how far every putt on tour was away from the cup (doesn't affect the outcomes, but still, they have this information). Baseball knows where every pitch was, but doesn't actually use that information during a game, ever. Hockey could use an easy system of puck tracking (just don't make the puck glow on TV) to determine if the puck went over the goal line between the posts. Football could use the same thing for goal line "break the plane" situations (european or north american football). Come on, North American sports, spend a few million and make the game more precise already. Cricket does it. Tennis does it. Why not you?

John Northey - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#244826) #
The study is a great one for getting discussion going. Watching the videos on the site you can see the difference between Molina and some of the bottom catchers.

From the start of baseball catchers have been kept in for defense but it has been a nightmare to measure it beyond caught stealing (which is also fairly new, just started being watched closely by Bill James in the 80's, tracked at all in the 70's). Thus I-Rod = god of defense (regardless of ability to call a game or frame a pitch) while Piazza = devil of defense (couldn't throw out your grandma but known for spending time preparing and working hard on defense).

Another study last year (iirc) showed the effect of passed balls/wild pitches where I-Rod did poorly while Piazza did extremely well. Sadly, pitch f/x wasn't publicly available (afaik) for the 90's thus we'll never know how those two did in this category. Many think I-Rod would have done very poorly due to his tendency to catch then throw to a base very quickly which would lead an ump to call a ball more often than not (tons of movement).

I figure within a few years we'll have a very good handle on catchers defense and probably will see a significant number of those no-hit guys getting full-time shots - even more so than we are used to.
China fan - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#244827) #
Molina will be another litmus test for AA's obsession with draft picks. If Molina is anywhere even halfway close to the value that this study implies, and if the Jays have any notion of even trying to contend in 2012, then Anthopoulos should sign Molina to a new contract. He's the ideal back-up catcher, at a very reasonable price, and the Jays are unlikely to find anyone close to Molina's abilities on the free-agent market. If Anthopoulos opts to let Molina go, in exchange for a sandwich pick, it will imply that AA doesn't see any chance of playoff contention for another year or two at least.
BalzacChieftain - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#244837) #
I would hardly agree with the notion that AA believes they have no chance of playoff contention in the next year or two if the Jays don't bring back their backup catcher next season.
China fan - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#244842) #

That's not actually what I'm saying. I'm saying that Anthopoulos always has a choice between draft picks and immediately useful players. If he opts for the draft pick, and in exchange he accepts a lesser player at back-up catcher for the near term, it's a signal that he is still willing to sacrifice the short-term for the goal of rebuilding.

I detect a whiff of contempt in your attitude towards back-up catchers. But one of the implications of the above-cited study is that a back-up catcher can be much more important than we normally assume. To which I would add: the much-scorned "back-up catcher" had 166 at-bats this season, about 38 per cent of the number that JPA had, so his role is not to be entirely dismissed.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#244843) #
I wonder if this will see an umpire-based correction. If there's a perception that Molina is making umpires look bad, will umpires compensate by judging balls & strikes more harshly?

Then again, as Magpie says, everyone already knew Molina was good at this, even if they didn't have decimal points to back it up. And I have no idea if umpires pay attention to this sort of thing.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#244844) #
A rant - if I may...

A guy like Bautista KNOWS where the strike zone is. He's MASTERED - after years of work - the skill of knowing when a thrown ball was a strike or ball. He is now paid millions because of  that knowledge and skill. Same for Youk and many others - so what happens? An umpire sits low over the inside shoulder of the catcher and can't even see the outside pitch well let alone know EXACTLY where it is. Hoss Flickis! (Latin for Hose Feathers - polite speak for b*ll s*it).

I am sick and tired of seeing PITCHERS make brilliant pitches and HITTERS take near pitches only to have some overweight, half blind, moron, screw it up! We can land men on the moon (or at least in studios that look freakishly like the moon) and we have the technology to let the skill of these massively over-payed prima-donna great play making players be accurately recorded - I say - (with apologies to Nike) JUST DO IT!  

John Northey - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#244849) #
And that, Mylegacy, is something I completely agree with.

Have live umps there but more for the reason you got them at 1B/2B/3B - to make the calls on close plays. Have a 5th ump in the booth who would set the strike zone for each hitter (if it isn't 100% automatic already) and who does TV reviews and error/not an error calls. That way you can review every play of the game if needed by someone who the other 4 umps respect (as each of them rotates up there). The umps get used to the system quickly as they are responsible for it, thus getting quicker buy-in and the extra jobs (5th ump) would help get their union to jump in as well. Net extra cost is (by MLB terms) minimal - 15 more umps at about $150 a year = $2.25 million over 30 teams - or about $75k each which is less than the bonus they give guys for making the All Star team.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#244852) #
John (with apologies to Claude Rains in Casablanca) - I think this might be the start of a beautiful friendship.
BalzacChieftain - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#244861) #

@CF - I don't see why AA can't replace an immediately useful player with a draft pick as well as another immediately useful player via free agency or trade. I do recognize the fact that Molina is likely quite valuable as a receiver, but it wouldn't be an outrage if he was replaced next season.

That being said, I do now see that your original comment was based in theory of replacing a useful major league player with only possible future value in a draft pick, which of course does nothing for short-term playoff contention.

Jonny German - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#244863) #
Another name to put alongside Chad Billingsley as a talented and well paid starter whose nerd stats are better than his traditional stats, and thus may be available at a reduced price: Ricky Nolasco.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/florida-marlins/fl-marlins-brewers-0926-20110925,0,6133818.story

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#244864) #
Nolasco, like Morrow, has managed to post a significantly higher ERA than his FIP or xFIP for several years.  You would probably want to weight it about 80% ERA and 20% indicated, given his consistent record. 
92-93 - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#244865) #
Nolasco is signed for another 2/20 so you can see why the Marlins would want to get out from under that. They've been linked to some of the premier FAs in an attempt to drum interest coinciding with the new ballpark, and therefore could be looking to dump Nolasco's salary for a relative pittance.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#244866) #
He'll give you 200 innings of Brett Cecil-quality pitching.  Frankly, given Cecil's age, I hold it more hope that Cecil will be better than Nolasco.  Nonetheless if you are going to get a decent 4th-5th starter for $3 million per year, why refuse?
92-93 - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 02:25 AM EDT (#244899) #
2:15 time of game, Alvarez vs. Buehrle. Thing of beauty.

With Pastornicky's call-up I'm surprised no one has lamented the Escobar trade yet.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 04:18 AM EDT (#244900) #
As you may recall, just a few weeks I posted a bunch of data looking at how pitchers had performed with Molina as opposed to the other catchers on the team. Let me just add that over his career, pitchers have walked 7.8% of opposing hitters when pitching to Molina, 8.4% when pitching to the other team's catchers. That pattern was clear with the Angels and simply enormous with the Yankees. It has not continued in Toronto, whose pitchers have issued slightly more walks working with Molina than they did with Arencibia and Buck. But as was noted already Molina has generally been assigned to work with Toronto's youngest and most control-challenged pitchers.

Over his career, his pitchers have allowed somewhat fewer hits and home runs, but the real big difference is in the number of strike outs his pitchers have been getting. His pitchers have struck out significantly more hitters pitching to Molina (20.0%) than they have to the team's other catchers (16.9). That pattern followed him from the Angels to the Yankees and here to the Blue Jays.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#244903) #
I am a big Pastornicky booster, but if things go very well for him, he will be as good as Escobar is.  My concern at the time of the trade was that Escobar would get very expensive if he returned to his previous form.  The Escobar extension with favourable team options answered that concern conclusively. 

Maybe Pastornicky will be a better player than Escobar in 3 years when Rogers (for some reason) decides to loosen the purse strings and try to win.  The odds of that are not too high, and in the meanwhile the club has a very valuable asset. 

John Northey - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#244904) #
Molina should be used as an example for all young catchers as to how to catch the ball, no question. As a backup he is very useful, but at 37 how much longer can he keep being solid? Right now he is about as valuable as he gets, but it wouldn't take much for him to drop fast. I suspect some contender who is desperate for a solid catcher will sign him to be a semi-regular, while the Jays hunt down another vet who is strong on defense and hope to keep up their good fortune in that area.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#244905) #
Good defensive catchers, who have been part-timers all of their career, can easily go to 40 and beyond.  The development path is very different from those at other positions. There is a cumulative wear issue on the knees, but that has more to do with games caught rather than whether the catcher is 36 or 40. 
bpoz - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#244906) #
Colby Rasmus.

We have some Bauxites that have exceptional language skills. Vocabulary & grammar. So is Rasmus ready for big time media or is he still a work in process.
Rasmus seems to be shy & is young, and went through an ordeal in St Louis. Add in the proposed changes to his hitting style described in the article and I can see a lot of problems. Then having to explain it can add stress. But I cannot say for sure.
I hope he gets a fair or at least friendly/welcoming relationship from the media & people of Toronto. IMO he is not a wonderful speaker like J Bautista, but nothing tells me that he is not a good guy. I believe with his talent and some hard work in the off season he could regain some of the weight he lost.

I do not want to make predictions but it is possible that he has a good season next year. The power numbers if high 30+Hr, Ok make it 40+Hr along with the weight gain could result in accusations that are unfounded but with the right spin...

Know what I mean.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#244907) #
Wrong thread...Sorry & Darn it.
Chuck - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#244909) #

During his stay in St. Louis, from ages 22 to 24, Colby Rasmus posted a composite OPS of about 780. Even a return to that level would make him a valuable center fielder. And given his age and that many players tend to improve until age 27 or 28, there is a definite basis for optimism that he could be much better than that.

He has been terrible in Toronto, of course, neither hitting nor walking (unless you count sleepwalking, which he appears to be doing a great deal of). I don't know how much to temper my optimism about him based on these crappy 130 PAs, but while I don't want to ignore them entirely, I don't think they should cloud the 1400 PAs that preceded them.

Colour me mainly bullish about Rasmus for 2012. A little part of me says he could go the Markakis route (peaking at age 24 like Rasmus may have at 23), but I'd want to see for sure.

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#244911) #
Fangraphs Q&A from today that seems apropos to some of the discussions on da Box:

Comment From Matt: With a rotation next year of Romero, Darvish, Morrow, Alvarez & McGowan are the Jays genuine contenders? Do they need to add a scary 1B bat too (yes, I'm looking at you Mr Fielder)?

Dave Cameron: I hope you're a farmer, because that's some significant chicken counting.
Mike D - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#244913) #
For the last game of the season, the Jays are starting two players with batting averages above the .220s.  So much for Jose Bautista adding to his counting stats.
China fan - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#244915) #
Well, he can always drive himself in, as he usually has to do.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#244916) #
An 8-9-1 of Teahen, Wise and McCoy is certainly part of going out with a whimper.

Regarding Rasmus and leaving aside issues about development, I wonder what the translation from the NL Central to the AL East would be.  I'd guess that it would be pretty significant.



Chuck - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#244917) #

Is Loewen hurt? You'd think he'd get the nod over Wise in RF.

Don't mean to jinx Morrow but he's not exactly facing a sea of titans himself.

John Northey - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#244918) #
Hrm. I'd rather see Woodward than Teahen just because, like many others, I'm getting a bit sick of seeing Teahen do nothing (31 OPS+ as a Jay) although Woodward is hardly doing anything (0 for 10). Ugly choices for the manager there.

Loewen over Wise is an easy one you'd think (someone who could be here next year vs someone who won't be). Lind being 3 RBI's from 90 (not the same as 100, but a nice round number) I figured would get him into this game but I am glad to see Cooper get the extra PA's.

And of course, disappointed that 'splinter butt' Jeroloman isn't starting and probably won't be playing. Ah well. As others have said he isn't exactly a big prospect but I still would like to see him become the 25th non-pitcher to play with the Jays this year to go with the 29 (plus McCoy) pitchers.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#244920) #
Over his career, his pitchers have allowed somewhat fewer hits and home runs, but the real big difference is in the number of strike outs his pitchers have been getting. His pitchers have struck out significantly more hitters pitching to Molina (20.0%) than they have to the team's other catchers (16.9). That pattern followed him from the Angels to the Yankees and here to the Blue Jays.

Do you know if the increased Ks are primarily of the swinging variety or caught looking variety or balanced between the two?

IMHO, an increase of mostly swinging Ks would suggest Molina's pitch selection to be superior (calling the right pitch to whiff a batter with 2 strikes).
On the other hand, an increase in mostly caught looking Ks would suggest Molina's framing to be superior (getting a call on strike 3 that appeared to the batter to be a ball)..
China fan - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#244921) #

....he's not exactly facing a sea of titans himself.....

And, after a couple of excellent starts, he's back to the old Morrow that we've become so familiar with:  5 walks and 64 pitches after 3 innings. 

Ron - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#244922) #
I saw Moneyball last night.

While the movie has received glowing reviews, I thought it was just a solid film. All the scouts were made to look like complete idiots in the film. There weren't any scenes featuring  the famous Moneyball draft. The only Jays connection in the film was Royce Clayton playing David Jusice. If you're not a baseball fan, I could understand why you would find the film boring.

+:
- Brad Pitt is charismatic
- Nice cinematography
- I laughed at a scene that showed a player drawing a walk in slow motion

-:
- The Peter Brand character is nothing like Paul DePodesta
- Phillip Seymour Hoffman is underused
- Nothing really exciting happens in the film
- No mention of Barry Zito

Movie Grade: B

John Northey - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#244923) #
Morrow is certainly walking one heck of a tightrope today. Maybe he wants to get those DP's behind him up to 2 :)
Paul D - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#244925) #
I thought that Moneyball was great, and that the portrayal of scouts was a lot fairer than I'd been led to believe by Keith Law and Baseball America.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#244927) #
Royce Clayton plays Miguel Tejada. I have no idea why they felt the need to use a former MLBer for that minor role.
Ron - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#244930) #
Royce Clayton plays Miguel Tejada. I have no idea why they felt the need to use a former MLBer for that minor role.

Yeah I made a mistake. Clayton plays Tejada not Justice. He only had a couple of lines.
Gerry - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#244931) #
After the game I am going to watch Americas Most Wanted to see if they have located Brian Jeroloman yet.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#244932) #
Since Molina's Type B status would be the reason not to retain him, I'll post this here.

Farrell used Camp 6x in the last 9 games. When he pulled Janssen with 2 outs in the 8th yesterday and let Camp get the final out (putting him in position for the W as well) I started to think about the Type B compensation. I have a feeling AA advised Farrell on Camp's borderline status and made Farrell aware of the Elias criteria. Giving Camp the final out of an inning down by 1 run put him in the perfect position to affect 3 of the RP categories; Innings Pitched, Games Played and Wins. Since the last update Camp has 6 GP, 4.2 innings, 2 wins, 0.43 Hits/Inning, 4:1 K:BB, 0.00 ERA. Kudos to the management team if they coaxed out compensation for Camp's impending free agency. If so, I would expect he doesn't return.

Brian Jeroloman is injured.
Thomas - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#244936) #
Do you have a source on that? I hadn't heard anything about an injury.
Anders - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#244937) #
I don't think Jeroloman is injured, I just think the Jays never intended for him to play.

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2011/09/28/jays-jeroloman-waits-for-the-call/
92-93 - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#244938) #
Mike Wilner quoted Arencibia's Twitter account in regards to Jeroloman.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 28 2011 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#244939) #
92-93, good post. I was wondering the same thing about Molina and Camp - I noticed that Camp got the win, but had assumed he wouldn't be a Type B (the last I checked, he wasn't that close, but it would be pretty cool if he makes it in based on an end-of-season surge).
bball12 - Friday, September 30 2011 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#245158) #
Teahan - McCoy - Wise

Sort of like a very perverse twist on Tinkers to Evers to Chance.

Just unbelievable - no other way to describe it.

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