Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Baseball America League Top 20's

The Baseball America league top 20's started last week. This thread will capture all the relevant Blue Jay rankings and comments. Blue Jays listed so far:

GCL - Adonys Cardona #8

GCL - Joe Musgrove #13

Appy - Noah Syndergaard #4

Appy - Chris Hawkins #11

Appy - Aaron Sanchez #12

Northwest - Justin Nicolino #1

Midwest - Jake Marisnick #3

Midwest - Drew Hutchison #14

FSL - AJ Jimenez #10

FSL - Drew Hutchison #13

FSL - Deck McGuire #17

Eastern - Travis d'Arnaud #2

Eastern - Anthony Gose #3

Eastern - Henderson Alvarez #10

Eastern - Adeiny Hechavarria #19

PCL - Brett Lawrie #1

PCL - Eric Thames #15

That is 17 total Blue Jay prospects on the league top 20's. 18 seems to be the highest number.

Player condensed comments:

Cardona gets credit for his size, his 95 mph fastball and good change-up.

Musgrove's heavy sinking fastball is his major asset. He needs to develop hs secondary pitches.

Dickie Thon's strikeout rate is a concern for BA but some GCL managers did like his swing.

Santiago Nessy got a few mentions but his defense needs work.

Syndergaard's fastball is so good that he didn't need to use his curve or change much in the Appy league.

Hawkins looks awkward but has big tools. Arm is fringy but rest of game is solid, if raw.

Sanchez has inconsistent secondary pitches, control is shaky.

Kevin Pillar has solid tools that should get him to AA, at least.

Art Charles has holes in his swing.

Nicolino is the complete package with #2 starter potential. "He just has a great feel for pitching and the stuff to go with it," an American League scout said. "He just attacked people. If there's a surefire big leaguer, he's the guy."

The only Vancouver players that scouts liked were Nicolino, Syndergaard and Sanchez. Some managers liked Permison but not scouts.

Marisnick has five tool potential but one scouts questions his future power.

Hutchison has three solid pitches and an unusual delivery.

Michael Crouse does not have all Marisnick's tools but he could be a major league regular. scouts think his swing needs work.

AJ Jimenez has very good defense; runs well for a catcher; and has a good knack for making contact, power may be fringy.

Drew Hutchison has a strong aptitude for pitching, his fastball is not overpowering but has good life, change-up is good, needs to work on the slider.

Deck McGuire mixes his pitches well, needs to improve his FB command.

Asher Wojciechowski - still can be a starter but none of his pitches stood out.

Nestor Molina - still working on developing agood breaking pitch to go with FB and splitter.

Travis D'Arnaud - excellent hitter, defense still needs work.

Anthony Gose - still a raw hitter but excellent defender

Henderson Alvarez - never gets hit hard

Adeiny Hechavarria - excellent runner, defender and thrower but wont be an offensive zero

Drew Hutchison - Fastball command of renown (John Manuel)

Moises Sierra - raw hitting approach and has some plate coverage issues

Mike McDade - Randall Simon comp

Eric Thames - Better profile than Cooper, all field hitting and good bat speed.

Posted by Gerry on Monday, September 26 2011 @ 12:59 AM EDT.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

TamRa - Monday, September 26 2011 @ 02:57 AM EDT (#244702) #

I'm thinking Nessy is too big to stay behind the plate long term.

bball12 - Monday, September 26 2011 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#244722) #

Tamra - it will be interesting to see whether or not teh Jays have the highest number of Top 20 ranked in total (across all leagues)

Exceptional young talent at almost all levels.

TamRa - Monday, September 26 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#244751) #

I can't wait to see the EL list

Spifficus - Monday, September 26 2011 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#244754) #

Or the MWL list.

hypobole - Monday, September 26 2011 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#244755) #

Thanks for the Info, Gerry. Building through the farm isn't the method all of us agree with, but since the Jays are going that route, it's certainly good news that they seem to be doing it well.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#244830) #

It looks as though prospects who make multiple stops in the minors can appear on more than one list (for example, Cory Spangenberg ranked #13 on the Midwest League top 20 and #2 in the Northwest League).

I'm a bit surprised that Marisnick wasn't #1 or 2 in the MWL - Kevin Goldstein recently wrote that he might be the best player in the league - but he's obviously well regarded. Also surprised that Hutchison was the only other Lugnut ranked, as Knecht and Crouse had good years and seemed to be considered good prospects as well. Carlos Perez also missed the cutoff, as did (less surprisingly) Sean Nolin.

Jim Callis of BA commented that the MWL top 20 list "lacked its usual star power in 2011. Unlike recent years headlined by megaprospects such as Jay Bruce (2006), Clayton Kershaw (2007) and Mike Trout (2010), this year's group consists more of future solid regulars than cornerstone players."

China fan - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#244831) #

It seems that the Jays have approximately 2 of the top 20 prospects in each league (pending the AA and AAA selections). So, here's a crude way of measuring this: it means that the Jays have about 10 per cent of the top minor-league prospects, even though the Jays represent only about 3 per cent of the MLB teams (they are one of 30 teams). Statistically speaking, the average MLB team would have 3 per cent of the top prospects. So, very crudely, the Jays have 3 times MORE top prospects than the average MLB team.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#244835) #

China - except there is also the Pioneer, Arizona, NYP and Sally leagues etc. where we have no teams.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#244836) #

Except that there aren't 30 teams in each league. For example, there are 16 teams in the MWL. So the Jays have 10% of the top 20 prospects of those 16 teams.

Here a few Jays-related comments from the BA MWL chat:

PT (IBC): Michael Crouse's counting stats look pretty similar to Marisnick's in 100 fewer AB's. Since he's only 4 months older and from a cold weather area(Canada), does he still have a chance to profile as a everyday regular or will the knock I've heard on him (slow bat speed) keep him from oneday playing in Toronto?

Jim Callis: Crouse doesn't have Marisnick's tools, but he was one of the better outfielders in the MWL and has a chance to be an big league regular. Scouts don't love his swing, which is stiff and choppy. He has good power to go with average speed and athleticism, but he's really going to have to hit to make it as a corner outfielder.

. . .

John (Moose Jaw): Considering that the Lugnuts went to the championship, is it strange that they just had 2 prospects on here? I know team success means little, but its not like AAA or AA in terms of org. filler.

Jim Callis: Not really . . . It's a 16-team league, so it's hard for one team to monopolize the list. Lansing might have had as many prospects as any team outside of Dayton, and Dayton only put two guys on the list, too.

. . .

Steve (Winnipeg): How close was it among the top 3 prospects? I know some people are really down on Hamilton, and some really high on Marisnick.

Jim Callis: Very close. I think you could have argued any of the top five prospects as No. 1, and there wasn't much separating the first 10 or 11 guys on the list.

Jonny German - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#244846) #

[Crouse] has good power to go with average speed and athleticism

Crouse went 38-8 stealing bases... are we to infer that's he's just a really smart baserunner?

China fan - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#244847) #

....For example, there are 16 teams in the MWL....

All right, so to adjust my numbers: the average team in a 16-team league would statistically be expected to have one of the top 20 prospects, but the Jays are generally coming up with 2 of the top-20 prospects. So they have twice as many as would be expected on average.

Anders - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#244848) #

I am assuming Hutchison only finished 14th because he only pitched half the year for Lansing...

MatO - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#244850) #

Jonny beat me to it. I think Lugnut Fan made it pretty clear that while Crouse is pretty raw there is nothing average about him.

Gerry - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#244853) #

Crouse could be very special, he has size, speed and probably the most athleticism of anyone in the system. The one knock on him has been the bat. When he first came into the system the doubters said that the bat was a bit slow. Crouse did a lot of off-season work to get it speeded up a bit but the doubts remain. Crouse hit in the 260's this year in the MWL, Marisnick hit over 320, those 60 points mean something.

Crouse was again young for the MWL this season, but he needs to hit close to 300 either next year or the year after to be considered among the top prospects.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#244854) #

Crouse has good speed, from the few times that I have seen him. LF could probably elaborate. I suppose that the BA comment could be shorthand for a projection. Crouse is a big man, and may not be particularly fast by the time that he could reasonably be major-league ready in 3-4 years or so.

The idea that Hamilton is a better prospect than Marisnick is bizarre. Yes, he stole 103 bases, but he hit .278/.340/.360 and struck out 133 times in 135 games. He just turned 21 years old (he is six months older than Marisnick). I guess Maury Wills didn't make it to the majors until he was 26 years old and Hamilton could have a better career than Wills, but overall I just don't see it. Marisnick runs well, controls the strike zone reasonably well, hits the ball with authority and plays fine defence in centerfield. On the other hand, Hamilton strikes out a lot and doesn't hit for power. That is a hard combination to overcome.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#244856) #

Or to put it another way, if Hamilton is the #2 prospect in the MWL, what must Anthony Gose be? The best prospect in the minor leagues? Gose has much more power and has achieved much more at a younger age than Hamilton. I like Gose a lot, but he sure isn't the best prospect in the minor leagues.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#244858) #

Hamilton hit 318/382/387 in the second half (as opposed to 233/292/329 in the first half), which apparently played a role in the ranking.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 27 2011 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#244862) #

He did cut his K rate some by hitting for even less power. This is the Jayce Tingler/John Cangelosi method. Hamilton is way behind Cangelosi in the offensive side of his game at this stage in their careers.

Gerry - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#245222) #

The Jays had 3 FSL top 20 prospects, Jimenez, Hutchison and McGuire. I added them to the list up top and I included some comments about them at the bottom.

The chat will be this afternoon, I assume there will be a lot of questions as to why Nestor Molina didn't make the list.

Gerry - Monday, October 10 2011 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#245650) #

I added Lawrie and Thames giving the Jays 17 named players.

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