Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Sorry Jose, Granderson will win MVP

That's my prediction. And in truth it is not altogether obvious to me that Bautista deserves the MVP award this season.

Yes, Jose has a big edge is OBP and SLG, but consider that Granderson:

1) Has played 9 more games than Jose, who has missed time with minor ailments a couple of times this season
2) Is 24 of 34 stealing bases, which is a bit more valuable than Bautista's 8 of 13
3) Has a huge edge in R+RBI (about 50 over Jose). Some of this is the extra games played and the rest is probably due to the better hitters batting around him. Nevertheless this represents a huge edge in a typical MVP voter's mind.
4) Plays on a team that is playoff bound, while the Jays are not. This has undoubtedly been a factor in past years and I think will be again.
5) As an averagish centerfielder, is worth a bit more in the field than an above average right fielder like Bautista.

I think these two will finish 1-2 in the voting, with Ellsbury, Cano and Verlander also drawing interest.

Posted by robertdudek on Thursday, September 22 2011 @ 11:43 PM EDT.

Sorry Jose, Granderson will win MVP | 51 comments | Create New Account

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ayjackson - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#244477) #

I'm not sure there is any value in 24/34 SBs.

Jose's chance to win is to have the "contender" vote split between the other candidates. He clearly had the best offensive year of anybody.

robertdudek - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#244478) #

If you subtract Jose's 8 of 13 from Granderson, it leaves 16 of 21, which is better than break even, especially in a relatively low run environment as we've had this season (compared to most of the last decade).

Mick Doherty - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#244479) #

I have a gut feeling (Iand a pretty sizeable gut, so there is that) that the voters are going to turn contrarian this year and give the MVP to Verlander. Then again, hey, *I* still think Guidry was robbed in 1978 and Rice was awesome in '78.

Richard S.S. - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#244481) #

Corey Patterson could have a Granderson year in Yankee Stadium. Switch players - Bautista for Granderson - Blue Jays are 7-10 fewer games won, protected draft pick territory - Yankees clinch their division 10 games earlier. And like every other voter, ignor the the 1st half (84 played of 92) and emphasize the more recent, yet shorter "1/2" (only 70 - small size warning) season. Also ignore how Bautista is the Star, but the only Big Bat on the Jays team (playing Multiple positions), while Granderson is One Of Many and not a Star on that Team. Bautista was the Best Player In Baseball in the first half, and now gets ignored for the award. Even his 2nd half stats are decent prorated over 155 games. Bautista was The Babe in the 1st half, and just a very good player in the 2nd.

gabrielthursday - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 01:07 AM EDT (#244482) #

Not including tonight's game, Bautista's wRC+ (which is park-adjusted) is 181; Granderson's is 154. That includes SB/CS, and means that Bautista has with his bat and stolen bases contributed 17.5% more than Granderson. That really only leaves the question of replacement value, defence and positional scarcity. Fangraphs and B-Ref have both done a good job looking at the questions of replacement value and positional scarcity - defence is, of course, more difficult to measure.

That's a substantial difference, and explains why Bautista is more valuable in fWAR (8.1 to 7.3). The advanced defensive metrics disagree on both players: if we substitute Dewan's +/- for UZR in Fangraphs' calculations, Bautista has a larger advantage: 9.2 to 6.3. Baseball-reference has yet another method of calculating value, and Bautista leads there as well by an 8.3 to 5.5 margin.

In short, it is only UZR-based fWAR that sees Granderson as close to Bautista in value. He's the American League's most valuable player.

hypobole - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#244484) #

Corey Patterson could have a Granderson year in Yankee Stadium.

Granderson home - .270/.367/.581, 21 HR

Granderson away - .270/.378/.560, 20 HR

Patterson totals - 239/.271/.351 6 HR

Switch players - Bautista for Granderson - Blue Jays are 7-10 fewer games won,

Bautista FG - 8.1 WAR, BBR - 8.3 WAR

Granderson FG - 7.3 WAR, BBR - 5.5 WAR

Lugnut Fan - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 05:58 AM EDT (#244486) #

I tend to agree with Mick on this one. I have listened to a lot of interviews with voters and it seems alot of them have stated that the MVP has to come from a contender. I'm not saying I necessarily agree with that view as I have always thought that MVP was for the best player. If it is truly who provides the greatest value to their team, then it probably is Verlander honestly. If you take him off the Tigers roster, they are most likely not going to the playoffs, where if you take Granderson off of the Yankee's roster, they just plug another part in CF and they most likely do.

I am always in the crowd that a pitcher can't be MVP because of the Cy Young. Perhaps they should add a most valuable offensive player award as well. I've kind of changed my mind for this one year because I heard one writer talk about how Verlander affects three games out of every five. He affects the way Leyland handles the bullpen before and after he throws because the bullpen is going to get rest when he throws. Many of the Tiger relievers have stated they don't ever bother to put on their cleats until the sixth when he is throwing because they know he is going to go at least six plus every time out.

Magpie - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 06:25 AM EDT (#244487) #

they know he is going to go at least six plus every time out.

You often hear that said about a pitcher having a big year, but Verlander really has gone at least six innings in every single start this season. Which is pretty cool. He still wouldn't get my vote, but I agree with Mick - he's going to win. And so is Kershaw. And, probably, Ryan Braun.

PeteMoss - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 06:57 AM EDT (#244488) #

I find it interesting that one year after Cy Young voters decided that wins don't matter and gave the award to Felix Hernandez suddenly they do matter again and Verlander is in the MVP debate.

And Batista should win the MVP hands down.

Thomas - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#244489) #

You often hear that said about a pitcher having a big year, but Verlander really has gone at least six innings in every single start this season.

Halladay has gone at least six innings in all but two of his starts this season. One he had to leave to due to heat exhaustion and dehydration (06/18) and in the other start he was lifted from the game after a 70 minute rain delay (07/21).

Dave Till - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#244491) #

Another factor is that Bautista hasn't hit as well in the second half, and some voters will hold this against him.

I think it's going to be Verlander. Bautista will probably finish about 4th in the voting. I still think Bautista deserves the MVP.

ayjackson - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 07:36 AM EDT (#244492) #

What's Jose's OPS since July 1? .980? 1.000?

18 HRs?

Hasn't hit well is a myth.

John Northey - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#244493) #

Well, in the 2nd half Bautista has hit 259/418/482 with 11 HR's - extremely good (142 sOPS+) but nothing like his first half 334/468/702 sOPS+ of 226 (Ruth/Bonds territory).

For guys with 250+ PA's in the 2nd half he comes in 9th with EE ahead of him while Cabrera has hit 364/458/576 for Detroit to lead in OPS. Granderson is at 271/388/564 to come in 3rd for 2nd half OPS.

rpriske - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#244495) #

Granderson is Top5... but that is it.

The decision HAS to be between Bautista and Verlander. If someone else sneaks in it should be Ellsbury.

Paul D - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#244498) #

There is zero chance that Granderson is winning the MVP. Not with that batting average. I will stake my non-existent battersbox credit on Granderson not winning the MVP.

The MVP is now down to Jose and Verlander, with Ellsbury as a darkhorse.

BlueJayWay - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#244499) #

It'd be cool if Bautista won the MVP. I just don't feel like it's going to happen.

The word 'valuable' is what screws everyone up. Everyone takes their own subjective definition what that is supposed to mean into the voting, hence we get a lot of the "he can't be MVP if he's not on a contending team!!" nonsense. Nothing like that is in the award stipulations. It's an individual award, not a team award, so I keep coming back to the best player in the league has to be the most valuable, no matter if his team loses 100 games.

We get less of this with the Cy Young, since it seems people just see that as a 'best pitcher of the year award'. There's no sneaky word like valuable to get hung up on.

Denoit - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#244503) #

I would be very surprised if Verlander doesn't win it. He is a "feel good" story and should get a lot of votes from writers outside of New York. A Triple Crown doesn't happen very often, he has not only been the best pitcher this year, but has had one of the best seasons ever. Is Detroit a playoff team without him? Maybe but only because the Central is terrible. But you could probably knock at least 10 - 15 wins off their record.

lexomatic - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#244504) #

I'm sorry, but if Bautista doesn't deserve the award, Granderson sure as hell doesn't.
Sure, Granderson has made immense positive changes to his hitting, and even with new Yankee stadium's short porch, he's hit for good power. But there is NO WAY in hell he'd be in the discussion if he wasn't a) a damn yankee, and b) in a park that boosted his power to a great extent
Sure he's an average-ish CF, but his defense doesn't make up the difference. I agree with AYJ, - the steals don't add anything. He's less than 2/3% - that's costing the team.
Pitchers don't get enough respect for MVP, but Verlander is not having a good enough year for that.

Chuck - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#244506) #

[re Granderson] But there is NO WAY in hell he'd be in the discussion if he wasn't ... in a park that boosted his power to a great extent

Why do you keep asserting this when his home and road numbers are virtually identical?

AWeb - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#244507) #

Why do you keep asserting this when his home and road numbers are virtually identical?

I would argue that they are only about the same because Granderson has been hitting much worse at home, if that makes sense. He has 6 homers this year in Yankee Stadium that would have gone out in 5 or fewer parks (hittrackeronline.com), including 4 ultra-cheapies (1 or 0 other parks). Bautista has 1 of these homers (off Papelbon in Boston). Just because the road/home splits are similar doesn't mean he isn't benefitting from his home park immensely. It certainly helped last year (109 point OPS difference). It might be that he doesn't get help from playing in (new)Yankee Stadium, but it would be foolish to dismiss it just from a quick one year split.

It is possible to have even home/away splits and still benefit from an easy home park. Josh Hamilton has a small split this year (+.040 OPS, +2HRs), but I'd wager he's still getting a huge benefit from playing in Texas (last year he had a .290 OPS split, +12 HRs). i.e., if he wasn't in Texas, his home numbers would stink (relative to his own baseline) this year instead of looking OK.

hypobole - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#244508) #

Thanks, Chuck, I had posted Grandersons home/away splits earlier in the thread, hopingy it would stop that meme, obviously with limited success.

Here is one interesting stat that can be taken either as a testament to the quality of their teammates or the fear of God they put in opposing managers (or some combination thereof).

Intentional walks 2011. Bautista - 23. Granderson - 0.

greenfrog - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#244510) #

I generally think that position players should win the MVP, but Verlander has a legit case this year: 1st in IP (244), Ks (244), ERA (2.29), WHIP (0.91), ERA+ (177), tied for 1st in WAR (7.0). The massive W-L record is a nice adornment, if statistically insignificant. He's been dominant enough to deserve consideration.

Among position players, I would vote for Bautista over Ellsbury (probably my second choice in a close race), Cabrera, Granderson, and Gonzalez. Joey's offensive stats are still a cut above everyone else's, and he provides enough defense to keep him on top.

I have no idea who will actually win. My guess is that Verlander and Ellsbury have the best chance, with Bautista, Granderson and Gonzalez also contending for top honours.

Chuck - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#244511) #

When Larry Walker won his MVP in 1997, many instinctively attributed his otherworldly 366/452/720 to Coors Field. But it turned out that he actually hit better on the road that year (road OPS 1176, home OPS 1169). Then, too, the meme was prevalent - he was a Coors Field creation.

Coors did inflate Walker's home numbers (in real terms, he did not hit as well at home as on the road) and that may be somewhat analogous to Granderson's 2011 (it took Granderson playing in a hitter's park for his home numbers to match his road numbers). But the fact that Granderson has hit 20 of his 41 homeruns on the road should, in and of itself, extinguish the talk that his homerun numbers are a Yankee Stadium creation.

ayjackson - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#244518) #

But the fact that Granderson has hit 20 of his 41 homeruns on the road should, in and of itself, extinguish the talk that his homerun numbers are a Yankee Stadium creation.

I disagree. There certainly a possibility that he was lucky on the road this year. I haven't looked at the stats, but while the home/road splits are compelling, they do beg more questions.

The two facts that I am aware of are 1) Yankee stadium favours LH power and 2) Granderson's home/road power splits are neutral. This contradiction begs further research.

ayjackson - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#244519) #

Granderson career HR/FB % - 14.0%

Granderson 2011 HR/FB % - 21.6%

So it looks like he has been very lucky overall. I wish I could find how to split that luck between home/road.

ayjackson - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#244520) #

Intentional walks 2011. Bautista - 23. Granderson - 0.

Are you saying Bautista puts up his .300 average and "other-worldly" .310 IsoP without seeing many hittable pitches?

ayjackson - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#244521) #

I wonder how this race would be shaping up if Granderson played LF and Gardner played CF (assuming they're similarly skilled defenders).

Anders - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#244522) #

The notion that Granderson has had a better year than Bautista is ludicrous. Bautista has, with the possible exception of Matt Kemp or maybe Jacoby Ellsbury, had the best year in baseball, and certainly the best hitting year. Whether or not that will translate into an MVP award remains to be seen. I happen to think that it will be close between Bautista and Verlander, with Boston candidates cancelling themselves out and with it basically coming down to whether more people don't think it should be a pitcher or someone from a non-contender.

And Bautista's post ASB line now sits at 259/418/482, which is hardly earth-shattering in comparison to his pre-line, but is actually pretty darn good.

Chuck - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#244526) #

Granderson career HR/FB % - 14.0%
Granderson 2011 HR/FB % - 21.6%
So it looks like he has been very lucky overall.

This kind of analysis can apply to Bautista as well: career 15.4%, 2010 21.7%, 2011 22.6%. Now, many will argue (justifiably) that Bautista has changed his swing so he's really a different player now rather than just a lucky version of his previous self.

Curtis Granderson may well be experiencing HR/FB luck this season. But he did work with his batting coach to alter his swing last season, so he may well have morphed into a new player, like Bautista did. I guess we'll see next season.

Still, all my Granderson talk is not to argue in his defense as an MVP candidate (I don't believe he should be, though my guess is that he will finish second to Verlander with Bautista finishing 3rd). I just reject the notion that his season can be dismissed with a wave of the hand and attributed entirely to Yankee Stadium.

Magpie - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#244532) #

Hey, didn't someone point out - at the beginning of May - that Granderson had: a) retooled his swing, and b) eliminated his previous helplessness against pitchers who didn't give him a platoon advantage? (Granderson came into the season with a career line of .217/.275/.358 against LHP, with 23 HRs in 802 ABs. This year, he's hit .277/.354/.614 against LHP, with 16 HR in 184 ABs.)

Making him This Year's Bautista.

ayjackson - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#244534) #

I think if there's anything we've learned over the past year or so, it's that Bautista's don't happen every year.

Having said that, my only point is that the home/road power splits don't mean he hasn't enjoyed a benefit from playing in Yankee stadium because he could have been lucky with homers on the road. Maybe in a "normal" year, his home/road HR splits would have been 20/12?

I could be a believer in the Granderson transition. Visually, he looks like a tough out. We'll see.

But as Anders said, his offensive production doesn't come close to Jose's. Defensively, it's pretty subjective as to who's more valuable.

Magpie - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#244536) #

I messed up the link! This Year's Bautista, take 2....

smcs - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#244541) #

I wonder how this race would be shaping up if Granderson played LF and Gardner played CF (assuming they're similarly skilled defenders).

They're not. Gardner is better. I wonder how much truth was in the rumor at last year's deadline of Bautista for Gardner and Chamberlain.

Jonny German - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#244543) #

Maybe Granderson's new mojo is indeed largely due to a revamped swing, but he was already established as a star level player before this year. Bautista before 2010 was barely passable as an everyday player. They're not comparable stories.

smcs - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#244545) #

Granderson's 2011 HR/FB% Home vs Road:

Home: 21.9%
Road: 21.3%

Magpie - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#244549) #

he was already established as a star level player before this year.

Really? This is kinda picking nits, but I thought of him as an established good player, who'd had a couple of star quality seasons at age 26 and 27, but seemed to be hitting his decline phase.

Certainly though, your central point - that what Granderson did this year wasn't as dramatic an improvement as what Bautista did the year before - is correct. Granderson was a better hitter than Bautista before The Change, and Bautista's improvement was so pronounced that he was the better hitter than Granderson afterwards. But the same elements are involved - remaking the swing, overcoming a career long problem against pitchers who didn't give you a platoon edge, and a power spike.

92-93 - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#244551) #

"5) As an averagish centerfielder, is worth a bit more in the field than an above average right fielder like Bautista."

There's a value in Bautista's versatility that can't be captured by UZR or DRS or any defensive metric that measures how the player played that position. It was a big luxury (and debate) for Farrell to be able to move his RF to 3B in order to remove a struggling glove from the field, a move that subsequently got Encarnacion's bat going. Players like Ben Zobrist provide their manager tremendous flexibility when it comes to filling out a lineup card and allow them to make less conventional moves during a game knowing they have players that can play multiple positions and hold their own wherever they're placed.

robertdudek - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#244562) #

Granderson career HR/FB % - 14.0%

Granderson 2011 HR/FB % - 21.6%

So it looks like he has been very lucky overall. I wish I could find how to split that luck between home/road.

Why does this have to be luck? Can't he simply be striking the ball cleaner and thus getting more distance on his flyballs?

robertdudek - Friday, September 23 2011 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#244563) #

I think that Granderson was one of the top 10 position players in the AL in 07/08, and therefore a star player.

ayjackson - Saturday, September 24 2011 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#244571) #

Why does this have to be luck? Can't he simply be striking the ball cleaner and thus getting more distance on his flyballs?

It doesn`t have to be luck, at all. I suggested it could have been luck because it was suggested the home/road HR split was conclusive evidence that he wasn`t benefitting from Yankee Stadium.

Thanks to smcs for the home/road splits on HR/FB%.

Krylian19 - Saturday, September 24 2011 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#244579) #

Baustista ruined his chances with an inferior 2nd half.

My greatest concern isn't whether he wins the MVP...it's whether or not his less than dominant hitting continues into 2012.

Jonny German - Saturday, September 24 2011 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#244581) #

Bautista can keep on hitting as he has in the second half and he'll still be one of the best hitters in the league and a bargain at $14M per.

greenfrog - Saturday, September 24 2011 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#244584) #

I wonder whether Bautista has been healthy in the second half. For one thing, he sprained his ankle pretty badly in mid-July.

Mike Green - Saturday, September 24 2011 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#244589) #

HR/FB tends to centralize for pitchers over their careers, but does not do so for hitters. There are many, many hitters who have seen their HR/FB rate increase significantly for a prolonged period as of age 29 or 30, often (it is true) coincidental with a trade to a more favorable hitting environment.

Paul D - Saturday, September 24 2011 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#244592) #

My greatest concern isn't whether he wins the MVP...it's whether or not his less than dominant hitting continues into 2012.

Bautista has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the second half. Don't worry.

scottt - Saturday, September 24 2011 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#244615) #

Every year someone tries to redefine the MVP award to favour a favourite player. However, the actual selection has remained surprisingly consistent.

Very little weight, if any, is given for position or defensive prowess. Batting average trumps the homerun tally. I had to go back to 1969, to find an American League winner who wasn't batting .300 or about. Killebrew won it that year with .276, but he led the year in homeruns, RBI, OBP, walks and intentional walks.

Frankly, Granderson's .268 batting average is not MVP worthy. If I had to vote for a Yankee, I'd pick Cano who could easily catch him for the "RBI Title".

hypobole - Saturday, September 24 2011 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#244617) #

Scott you are wrong. Back in the 1950's Branch Rickey realized OBP and power were more important than batting average, yet even today people, still use BA as a paramount stat. What's really wrong is that many BBWAA members still think the same way. Granderson .268/.370/.566. Cano .305/..351/.537. Bautista .303/.447/.611.

Bautist6a deserves it more than Granderson who deserves it more than Cano.

Paul D - Sunday, September 25 2011 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#244620) #

How is Scottt wrong? No one has had a batting average that low in the AL since Kilebrew. That's correct.

hypobole - Sunday, September 25 2011 @ 02:22 AM EDT (#244621) #

While i'm at it, the RBI "race" between the two is almost pointless as well.

Flex - Sunday, September 25 2011 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#244627) #

It's not really Scott who's saying a low batting average doesn't deserve to win. It's the previous voters for the award. He's simply saying, I think, that according to the pattern long established, Granderson doesn't shape up as a likely winner.

Paul D - Sunday, September 25 2011 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#244629) #

Scottt's fact are correct, it's his premise that's wrong. Using batting average to argue Cano is more deserving than Granderson, despite Granderson having a higher OBP and SLG% (which are more important stats) is what I took exception to.

Scottt's not arguing that Cano is more deserving based on batting average, he's talking about the MVP vote.

Sorry Jose, Granderson will win MVP | 51 comments | Create New Account

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