With the absence of minor league updates I am having withdrawal symptoms, so I decided to look at some minor league hitters stats. I read an article around a month ago that looked at numbers in the lower minors and calculated which numbers mean something in predicting future success. I cannot find the story now, but as I remember it the two main numbers with meaning were age relative to league and strikeout rate. Or to put it another way, if a player is young for the league, and if he can put the bat on the ball, that is a sign of future success. I looked at those numbers for all of the Jays minor league teams and the results are below.
Hitters are evaluated based on five tools, but one tool is the most important, the hit for average tool. Some players can fill a utility role as a great defender, some can find a role as a power bat with a low average, but most players in the majors can hit for average. A minor league players batting average might not be a true indicator of future success in the majors. Particularly in the lower minors hitters can take advantage of weak fielders, inconsistent pitchers, and bad fields. But ultimately if you can put the bat on the ball, you have a better chance of success at higher levels.
In general I only looked at players with more than 100 at-bats and I made that 200 in the higher minors.
GCL Jays
The best GCL Jay at making contact was Santiago Nessy, who had an 82% contact rate. Seth Conner and Jorge Vega-Rosado were close behind at 81%. Nessy is 18 and Conner and Vega-Rosado are both 19 so all three qualify under this theory.
On the negative side Dickie Thon struck out 36% of the time, Eric Arce 31%. Yudelmis Hernandez gets the prize with 50 K's in 92 AB's for a 54% K rate.
Bluefield
Kevin Pillar had an 85% contact rate as you would expect from someone who won the batting title. Pillar though is 22, older than league average of 20.5. Andy Fermin also had a good contact rate, 83%, but he too is one year older than the league average. Chris Hawkins had an 81% contact rate and played most of the year as a 19 year old.
Kellen Sweeney had only 35 at-bats but he K's 17 times. Art Charles had a 36% K rate.
Vancouver
Shane Opitz was the first player I thought of when I read the article referenced above. I knew Opitz made contact, maybe not always strong contact, but he a 19 year old playing in a league where the average age is 21.3. Opitz's contact rate was 86%, excellent for his age.
Three older players had good contact rates too, Jon Berti who is right on the average age at 21, had a 79% contact rate, Jon Jones who is a few months older than the average age had an 83% contact rate and Nick Baligod had an 84% contact rate but he is 23. Baligod had 38 walks and 38 K's, showing a good eye.
Lansing
The average age in the Midwest League is 21.6, just a few months older than the Northwest League where Vancouver plays. KC Hobson lead the Lugnuts with a contact rate of 85% and he is a year under the average for the league. However Hobson hit just .250 this year, does this make him a break-out candidate for next year?
Jake Marisnick, Carlos Perez and Jon Jones all had contact rates around 81% and of those three Marisnick and Perez were below the average age for the league.
Bryson Namba led the K'ers with a 38% rate.
Dunedin
As you get higher in the classifications this formula breaks down a little. A player may K more than the average but if he has a lot of pop in his bat he can still be a valued major league prospect. Similarly older players are more prevalent at the higher levels. The average age in the FSL is over 22.5, a year higher than the Midwest and Nothwest leagues.
AJ Jimenez and Brad McElroy led the D Jays with a 84% contact rate. However Jimenez played at almost two years under the average while McElroy is 25, more than two years above the average.
Kevin Nolan (81%), Ryan Goins (81%) and Sean Ochinko (83%) are all 23 years old, around league average, with good contact rates.
New Hampshire
Ricardo Nanita, who is 30, and Callix Crabbe who is 28, has contact rates of 88% and 87% respectively. The league average age is 24.4, two years higher than the FSL.
Among the prospects both Adeiny Hechavarria and Moises Sierra, both 22, had contact rates of 83% and 81%. Travis d'Arnaud was at 76% and is also 22, Mike McDade and Anthony Gose are younger and they had contact rates around 70%.
Las Vegas
A shout to Manny Mayorson and his 93% contact rate. At 28 Mayorson is a year older than the league average of 27. Nine of the 51's players had contact rates at 80% or above, Lane, Woodward and Nanita all made it.
Among the prospects Brett Lawrie had an 82% contact rate, David Cooper 91%, Eric Thames 80%, Travis Snider 82%, Darin Mastroianni 83%. All are under the league average age that that doesn't mean a lot when the average age is 27. Adam Loewen is right on the league average and he K'd 27% of the time.
Summary
Here are the players who score well under this predictor:
Santiago Nessy; Seth Connor; Jorge Vega-Rosado; Chris Hawkins; Shane Opitz; KC Hobson; Jake Marisnick; Carlos Perez; AJ Jimenez; Adeiny Hechavarria; Moises Sierra; Brett Lawrie; David Cooper; Eric Thames; Travis Snider; Darin Mastroianni.
Among the players who didn't score well are:
Dickie Thon; Eric Arce; Kellen Sweeney (small sample); Anthony Gose; and Mike McDade.
