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I've officially determined that Brett Lawrie is the most exciting Blue Jays rookie I have ever seen (and I've pretty much seen them all).







What clinched it for me? Last night Lawrie hit a sharp grounder that bounced off of Kevin Youkilis. Youk quickly corralled it, but Lawrie easily beat the throw for an infield hit. He is without doubt one of the quickest right-hand batters to first base in the majors.

Then I got to thinking about who Lawrie most reminds me of among past major leaguers, and no one immediately came to mind.

Lawrie has an intensity that would make Reed Johnson blush, so I thought of Pete Rose, but Lawrie is much more athletic than Rose ever was. The next man I though of was Kirk Gibson, circa 1981, but while matching Lawrie's athleticism, Gibson was about 3 years older. Ditto for Larry Walker and his 1991 campaign.

At some point I'll try to run similarity scores, but in the meantime I'd like to hear comparisons Bauxites have for our new star.
Posted by robertdudek on Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 08:41 AM EDT.
Who to compare Lawrie to? | 49 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
AWeb - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#243892) #

At the plate, he reminds me of Gary Sheffield (the waggle with the bat, the ferocious RH swing, plus Sheffield was reasonably fast, although not nearly Lawrie fast that I remember). If he can avoid being perpetually placed at defensive postions he can't quite handle (Sheffield was always one or two positions over his head - SS, 3B, RF, then LF) and actually add defensive value, and come close to Sheffield's bat, then he's an all-time great. Should be easy, it's not like Sheffield was one of the 10 best hitters ever or anything...merely a top 50 guy. No pressure kid!

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damos - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#243894) #
I can't recall where I heard it (TV, Radio, Print?)  but I did hear a comp to Jeff Bagwell. 
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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#243897) #
Ironic, Damos, my first thought was actually Craig Biggio -- the versatility plus the offensiive game and the plus-speed ... if Lawrie could catch, I think that'd be a slam dunk! :-)
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Mylegacy - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#243898) #
He's got Rose's hustle, Sheffield's waggle, Bagwell's hit tool - but when all is said and done those are just guys who'll one day be compared to Brett "The Canadian Clubber" Lawrie as they try to explain Lawrie's climb to the Hall. Just sayin'.
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BalzacChieftain - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#243900) #
John Sickels comped his bat tool with Ryan Braun.
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Forkball - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#243903) #
I can't recall where I heard it (TV, Radio, Print?)  but I did hear a comp to Jeff Bagwell.

Jim Palmer was quoted as saying that (and I think that was more about his swing).
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Anders - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#243904) #
I think Braun is a pretty good comp, if not physically then in almost everything else; both steal a handful of bases at good rates, about the same power and walks so far.

Of course one Brett is 3 years younger in making his ML debut and already appears to be a significantly better defender...

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bpoz - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#243906) #
Lawrie has er..enthusiasm my way of explaining his hustle and his congratulation expression on the team scoring runs. I think that can help a team's performance in winning more games.
I believe this is not considered much as far as influencing wins. But then the Twins must have been doing something right because they never looked like a power house on paper.
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robertdudek - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#243907) #
I ran some sim scores...

I selected a database as follows: 100-300 AB age 24.5 or less, 1948-2007.

I weighted the following categories: Age, AB, 2b, 3b, HR, sb, cs, w, k, avg, obp, slg

The most similar seasons:

Joe Mauer 2004
Juan Encarnacion 1998
Gregg Jefferies 1988
Johnny Damon 1995
Duke Snider 1948
Dave Kingman 1971
Willie McCovey 1959
Greg Goossen 1969
Curt Flood 1959
Carl Scheib 1948

Willie Mays and Grady Sizemore showed up among the next ten most similar.

I had no idea who Greg Goossen was, but he had a fluke age-23 season with the Seattle Pilots.

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Chuck - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#243909) #

had no idea who Greg Goossen was

Does he not figure prominently in Ball Four?

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Chuck - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#243910) #
The Gregg Jefferies comp is predictable... and valuable as a reminder to every non-scotch drinker that a HoF career does not necessarily lie in waiting.
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Dave Till - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#243911) #
I had no idea who Greg Goossen was, but he had a fluke age-23 season with the Seattle Pilots.

Goossen was the target of a memorable quote by Casey Stengel: "Now, that fellow over there, he's 20, too. In ten years he has a chance to be 30." Goossen appears regularly (and memorably) in Jim Bouton's Ball Four. He died earlier this year, according to Baseball Reference.

I thought of Pete Rose, but Lawrie is much more athletic than Rose ever was.

I agree that Lawrie is more athletic than Rose, but Rose was apparently quite athletic when he was young: according to Michael Sokolove's excellent and unflattering biography of him (Hustle), he could dunk a basketball.

My first comparisons of Lawrie were to Rose and George Brett, as all three men share an intense focus on the game. Paul Molitor might be a good comp too, except that Lawrie has more power and a bit less speed.

I have two concerns about Lawrie. One is that the pitchers might not have found his weaknesses yet; this is still the honeymoon period. Recall that Josh Phelps hit .309 in 2002 (in 287 plate appearances) before the league caught up to him. Lawrie is a much better hitter, has a broader range of skills, and is hitting a wider range of pitches, so I'm less worried about him, but the road to stardom may contain a bump or two. And I'm also wondering how durable he will be - playing as hard as he does might lead to injuries. Both Brett (George that is) and Molitor missed significant time with injuries when they were young.

But - those concerns aside - I have to agree with Robert: Lawrie is the best Blue Jays rookie I have ever seen. He can seemingly do everything. My most impressive moment was when he fielded a ball bare-handed that had been hit down the third-base line and made a perfect off-balance throw to third to get the runner. I don't know of many third basemen that could have made that play - and Lawrie has been playing third for less than a year. At this point, there appears to be no limit on how good he could be. And he's Canadian, even. It was like he was ordered up by Central Casting.
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robertdudek - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#243912) #
Here is my sim score list if you eliminate everybody under 900 OPS:

Joe Mauer 2004
Juan Encarnacion 1998
Gregg Jefferies 1988
Greg Goossen 1969
Willie McCovey 1959
Phil Plantier 1991
James Loney 2006
Matt Murton 2005
Rico Brogna 1994
Kal Daniels 1986

Kal Daniels is another in a long line of players to have one foot in the HoF.  During 86-88, he was one of the best players in baseball and put up numbers similar to what I expect out of Lawrie over the next two years. Sadly, the knees went and it was over before we could really appreciate him.

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TamRa - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#243913) #
That's the first time I've heard Brett mentioned but just off the very top of my head i like that for a comp.


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robertdudek - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#243916) #
minorleagueball has a poll going:

If you could have Brett Lawrie or Mike Trout for the rest of his career, who would you pick and why?

Current results: Lawrie 443; Trout 425

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John Northey - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#243918) #
I'd limit it to guys no more than a year off of his age. Studies have shown how every year earlier a guy reaches the majors makes a massive difference in projections. So guys 20-22 would be as big a range as I'd use, and I'd put a big penalty for being 20 or 22.

For the all time greats...
George Brett was in his first full season at 21 (at 20 he had 41 PA with a -18 OPS+). He hit 282/313/363 for a 91 OPS+, then a 125 OPS+ at 22, and a 144 at 23.

Paul Molitor reached at 21 (full season) and hit 273/301/372 for an 89 OPS+ followed by two in the 120's before his first set of injuries occurred.

Mike Schmidt at 21 was in his first year in the minors in AA (652 OPS). Called up in Sept at 22, 92 OPS+ at 23, then he became the best ever.

Eddie Matthews was in the majors at 20 with a 113 OPS+, 171 at 22 to lead the league - first of 3 in a row in the 170's. Wow.

Wade Boggs didn't reach until 24 with a 127 OPS+, then a 150 the next year.

Gregg Jefferies, who a few mentioned, was first up at 19 (!) but just 6 PA. 118 PA at 20 (178 OPS+) then full time at 21 with a 106 OPS+ He peaked at 25 with a 141, then a 130 at 26 (strike year), and a 109 at 27 before falling below 100 for every season left in his career and out of baseball after his age 32 season. Weird how fast he fell. You'd think he was the one lying about his age by about 5 years.
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Thomas - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#243921) #
Goossen went on to have a career in the movies. The NY Times ran a good obituary good obituary of him after his death.
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joeblow - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#243923) #
Rickey Henderson

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robertdudek - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#243926) #
Limiting to guys that are within 6 months of age in either direction, here are the most similar 10 lists for Lawrie and Trout:

Lawrie:

Joe Mauer 2004
Willie McCovey 1959
Johnny Damon 1995
Duke Snider 1948
Carl Scheib 1948
Alex Johnson 1964
Howard Johnson 1982
Asdrubal Cabrera 2007
Curt Flood 1959
Willie Mays 1952

Trout:
Brooks Robinson 1957
Harry Chiti 1952
Tony Horton 1964
Alex Rodriguez 1995
Johnny Callison 1959
Justin Upton 2007
Aurelio Rodriguez 1967
Dale Coogan 1950
Del Crandall 1950
Jay Porter 1952

Incidentally, Trout is much more similar to his list of 10 than Lawrie is to his. Thus Lawrie's stat line (for age) is the more unique.

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Dave Till - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#243927) #
Robert's last set of lists shows why scouting and development is sometimes a pure crapshoot. According to one of the lists, Mike Trout could become the next Alex Rodriguez - or he could become the next Harry Chiti (who was once traded for a player to be named later - the later-named player turned out to be Chiti himself). That's a rather large range of possible outcomes!

I always believed, by the way, that J.P. Ricciardi's biggest flaw was that he wasn't lucky enough. Discuss :-)

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uglyone - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#243931) #
Ty Cobb's Soul in Bo Jackson's body.
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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#243932) #
Trout's list contains both the current A-Rod (Alex) and the priginal A-Rod (Aurelio). Talk about a wide range!
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China fan - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#243935) #
One would hope that Lawrie doesn't entirely have Ty Cobb's soul.  Cobb was one mean mother.   Although he may have shared Lawrie's love of country music.
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electric carrot - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#243936) #
Lawrie reminds me of the 1993 version of Lenny Dykstra.  I think their careers will likely be different and I hope Lawrie hits more homers but that year Dykstra did it all and he had the kind of intensity to him that I think I see in Lawrie too.



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Lylemcr - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#243941) #

For some reason, Eric Hinske comes to mind for me.  Neither are the most fluid 3rd basemen because of their muscular frame.

Ken Caminiti is another 3rd baseman I could think of. 

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Rich - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#243942) #
Jeff Kent with speed.
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Chuck - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#243943) #
Perhaps Mick has already run with this with an all-fish team, but I find it funny that the Angels now have a player named Trout when they had one named Salmon.
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Chuck - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#243945) #

Jeff Kent with speed.

Maybe Jeff Kent on speed.

 

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BalzacChieftain - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#243946) #

For some reason, Eric Hinske comes to mind for me.  Neither are the most fluid 3rd basemen because of their muscular frame.

Hinske goes a lot better with the words "donuts" and "Litsch" than "muscular."

 

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Magpie - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#243948) #
the Angels now have a player named Trout when they had one named Salmon.

How did they never have Kevin Bass?
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China fan - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#243951) #
After seeing Lawrie's collision with Varitek -- where he seemingly went out of his way to barrel over Varitek, rather than trying to touch the plate -- I think we're going to need some hockey-player comparisons for Lawrie....
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China fan - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#243952) #
An injured hockey player, perhaps.
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dan gordon - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#243953) #

They're saying Lawrie is out with a knee contusion (bruise) suffered in that collision.

Looks like Loewen has been attending the Cory Patterson school of baserunning excellence.  Got picked off once and made the 3rd out at 3rd base in a 1-run game.  Nice single off a tough pitcher to score the 2 runs though.  As they'd say, a real clutch hit for the game winner.  Good thing Francisco finished it off or Wilner would be inundated with callers saying Farrell should have left Romero in the game.

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Ron - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#243954) #
I don't remember the last time a Blue Jay charged the catcher like that. Bard has looked awful the past 3 appearances while potential future Blue Jay, Papelbon, hasn't given up a run since July 16th.
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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#243956) #

During 86-88, he was one of the best players in baseball

I was in Ohio and following the Reds at the time. While this is true of Kal, you should add "until he put on his rusty tin glove." Dude was an epic fail as an outfielder.

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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#243958) #

@Chuck ... yep, you know it, back in July of 2007, so Trout gets no mention (unles you coulnt Dizzy and Steve) ....

Gone Fishin'

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China fan - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#243959) #

Okay ... (deep breath) .... much as I hate to criticize Brett Lawrie ... I think he should have slid, rather than colliding with Varitek. A smartly executed slide could have scored the run, and it would have avoided the risk of an injury that could have been a lot more serious than it was.

Havng said that ... there was certainly a chance that Lawrie could have knocked the ball out of Varitek's hand. He was being aggressive, which is hard to criticize. He was sending a message to the Red Sox, which is hard to criticize. Still, on balance, I think he should have slid.

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Original Ryan - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#243961) #
Lawrie's knee injury doesn't appear too serious.
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Spifficus - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#243962) #
No, Varitek's fooled many a runner by giving them the outside lane, and then at the last second moving his foot and kicking them off the plate. Ignoring the injury side, Lawrie had as much chance scoring trying to Fosse him as sliding.
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bball12 - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#243965) #
Not smart to do.



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Hodgie - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#243966) #
What a strange season series it has been against Boston this year. After today's win the Jays record against Boston is 8-10. What the record fails to show is that Boston has out scored Toronto by 61 runs in those games. Perhaps the Red Sox were tired seeing Toronto under-perform Mr. Pythagoras on a near annual basis?
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CeeBee - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#243968) #
Laurie reminds me of Pete Rose. He might have more power but the hustle, ability to play multiple positions, all out hell bent for leather, and he seems to be an ok hitter too. Anyway, the first game he played I remarked to my wife. He reminds me of Pete Rose, and I still feel that way.
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BlueJayWay - Wednesday, September 14 2011 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#243969) #
What a strange season series it has been against Boston this year. After today's win the Jays record against Boston is 8-10. What the record fails to show is that Boston has out scored Toronto by 61 runs in those games. Perhaps the Red Sox were tired seeing Toronto under-perform Mr. Pythagoras on a near annual basis?

Maybe that's it.  In any case, this has been somewhat refreshing.

On a related note:  with the one run win today, the Jays have won their last five one-run games, and are now 25-25 in that category.  It'd be nice to break even for once.

If my math is right, the last three series (nine games) have seen the Jays go 6-3, but outscored by 20 runs.  It's not ideal, but it's a nice change from the reverse, which has happened so often in recent years.
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budgell - Thursday, September 15 2011 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#243979) #

I thought of Chris Sabo when I first saw Lawrie in spring training.  Some physical resemblance, similar stance from what I remember, both "dirt bags" as JP might say, speed/power combo.  I think Sabo was often not the opposition's favorite player and I can definitely see that  being the case with Lawrie.

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ayjackson - Thursday, September 15 2011 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#244021) #
Visually, Sabo is an excellent comp.  He didn't debut until he was 26 though.
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DaveB - Thursday, September 15 2011 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#244030) #
Physically and at the plate the Bagwell comp works for me. Like Bagwell, Lawrie is going to get hit by a lot of pitches in on his hands.

From a hit tools-athlete perspective I think he's similar to David Wright.
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greenfrog - Thursday, September 15 2011 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#244032) #
Braun, Bagwell and Wright are all exciting comps. Hopefully the Jays' hitting coaches don't start encouraging Lawrie to hack at everything, resulting in another Lind/Hill/Snider/Thames/Arencibia-esque OBP. Lawrie seems too have too much baseball intelligence to let this happen, though.
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raptorsaddict - Friday, September 16 2011 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#244083) #
Ty Cobb's Soul in Bo Jackson's body.

You, sir, win the award for best comment of the day.
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ogator - Saturday, September 17 2011 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#244108) #
Hyperbole, aside, "...in Bo Jackson's body".  Really?  Bo Jackson?
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