I put the man's final total at 682. Then five years after he retires, one of the closest to unanimous elections to the HOF ever ... four or five ballots short, just because of the usual idiots who insist on turning in blank ballots because "If Babe wasn't unanimous, nobody ever should be ..."

WOW 443 homers!

Not bad for a 39 year old...er 36...er 34?

Recognizing that this is a total crapshoot, I predict his HR totals going forward as: 39, 33, 36, 34, 33, 28, 20, 14, for a total of 237. This would give him 680, good for fourth on the all-time list.

Of course, all this depends where he signs. If he moves to a bandbox, you could probably add another 15+ HR to that figure.

I would guess he has another 350 or so, about the same as Hank Aaron from age 32 on. Of course, I would have guessed Rodriguez, who has/had a 60-80 HR lead on Pujols at the same ages (why no jokes about Rodriguez being older than he reports? He's breaking down like a 45 year old), would push 800, and now I think 700 will be tough for him. Given Pujols' superhuman recovery speed from a broken bone in his wrist (hand?) this year, good health seems pretty achievable for him.

I would like the symmetry of Pujols becoming the all-time HR king from this point of view - like Aaron, he also has never hit 50 HR in a year (and possibly won't although if they liven the ball back up again, who knows). I like the all-time leader being a "marathon" guy, rather than a "sprint" guy. Although I suppose Bonds only hit 50+ once himself...

AWeb, that sounded wrong so I looked it up, and sure enough *I* was wrong. Barry topped 40 dingers eight times -- is that a record? -- but topped out at 49 excepting the one season of 73*.  Wow.

Pujols is a unique talent, so comparing to his most similar will be off by more than normal. Still...
#1 comparable by age (through age 30) is Jimmy Foxx after it being Joe DiMaggio for years. However, of the top 10 only Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle had an OPS+ higher than Pujols with Foxx the only other guy within 10 points.

From age 32 to the end of their careers these guys hit between 37 and 357 HR. After Aaron's 357 comes Manny Ramirez's 208. The median is 134 (5 over, 5 under). Ouch. Of the 10 only 1 is not a HOF/future HOF/kept out due to steroids - Juan Gonzalez. All 10 had OPS+'s over 100 post age 31, including 5 with 150+ (Gehrig, Aaron, Mantle, Ott, Rameriz) and a 6th at 149 (Frank Robinson). The rest were Foxx (129), Eddie Mathews (114), Griffey Jr (113), and Gonzalez (109). All played for 5+ years other than Gonzalez (4 years) but just Aaron lasted 10+ (11 seasons).

What does this say? That a 5 year deal is the MAX anyone should sign with Pujols. Foxx was interrupted by the war, Robinson was great for 8 years (1 weak one in there with 'just' a 127 OPS+), Griffey Jr injured perpetually, Gehrig we all know, Aaron had 8 straight well worth it then a 9th that was solid but short, Mantle was a 137+ OPS+ every year he had left and would've kicked around a few more if DH's existed back then, Ott had 5 great years (assisted by playing during the war) then suddenly ended (injuries), Gonzalez had nothing but injuries, Mathews was solid but nothing great for 4 years (OPS+ of 108-125), and ManRam was feared for 7 years but injured a lot other than 3 seasons.

So, digging into that I'd say odds are Pujols will keep hitting but injuries will become the big issue at some point (regardless of his past record). Splitting time between 1B and DH would extend his career most likely, or at least give him somewhere to go when too sore to be out in the field. 600-700 final total for HR is the likely situation I figure given the DH option he will have open to him ala Manny (Gonzalez was just too injured).

The record is 11 40+ HR seasons by Ruth (4 of which were 50+), followed by Bonds/Killebrew/Aaron/A-Rod at 8 seasons each. Thome & Pujols each have 6 to tie for 8th with McGwire.

I think he ought to clear 700, but just barely - and if he does go to Anaheim this winter that may change things. Even so - Pujols has 443 HRs through his age 31 season, and could finish the year with... 450 maybe? This is one of the best totals ever, of course - Only three players can beat it - Jimmie Foxx (464) and Ken Griffey (460), who both ran out of steam in their 30s. And Rodriguez, of course.

Pujols is pretty far behind Alex Rodriguez who had 518 through his age 31 season. And despite his injury season this year, Rodriguez still has more HRs (628) than any player in history through his age 35 season. Even more remarkable, if Rodriguez takes all of 2012 off to rest and recuperate, and doesn't hit any homers at all - he'll still have more HRs through his age 36 season as well. He's still the best bet to catch Bonds, although if the Yankees want to get their money's worth from him, they'll get him away from third base. I know Teixeira's in the way, but Rodriguez needs to move to first.

I never took the Pujols age concerns very seriously - he had his best seasons at age 28 and 29, which isn't very strange at all.

The guy whose career really does make a whole lot more sense if he was three or four years older than his listed age? Andruw Jones.

There's some possibility A-Rod doesn't even pass bonds now unless he has another big year left in him.

This year he will have roughly 2/3 of a season in terms of games played, and 17 or 18 homers which on a normal season would pro-rate to something in the high 20's depending on your assumptions.

But he hasn't played over 140 games in the last 4 seasons. So it's more like 23 or so. He's under contract for six more years and if he played all of them and averaged 21 a year over that span (and you give him 2 more this year to tie Griffey), he'd be just in front of Aaron.  He needs to average 22 to catch Bonds.

It would be cool if Thome had a hot streak and passed Sosa but oh well.

Chipper Jones is next among active hitters and has a chance to catch #28 Stan Musial (475) if he plays out his deal.

Not sure if Guerrero can get another contract but if so he could get into the neighborhood with Canseco and Winfield (460s)

Then comes Pujols.

He got a slow start because of the injury, but over the last half-season (81 games, well actually 78 games) he has 27 homers, or a pace for 54 over a season. He's NOT slowing down. That pace would also get him to 40 this year, which is just off his 162 game average for his career.

I could see going like this:

Age 31 - total 448 (40 on season) - rank 37
32 - 492 (44) - 26
33 - 533 (41) - 18
34 - 572 (39) - 12
35 - 610 (38) - 7
36 - 645 (35) - 7
37 - 677 -(32)  5
38 - 707 (30) - 5
39 - 735 (28) - 4
40 - 756 (21) - 3

That leaves him 6 behind Bonds and who knows how far behind A-Rod (if at all)
He can do it, but he had to keep being Albert for another 5-6 years to give himself a shot. i'm rooting for him (I'm actually rooting for him to do it in a Jays uniform...)

Some other interesting observations:

Andruw Jones may well catch or pass Andre Dawson
Paul Konerko might too - he's on the cusp of 400 now
David Ortiz can maybe target Stan the man - pass him and get into the top 30 (for a while anyway)
The next guy on the list with a shot at 500 is probably Tex, then maybe Howard (though i think he falls apart long before then, and Cabrera (who for all the praise is not at all on Albert's pace - 3 years younger and some 170 behind) who should get there in a decade or so if he holds up.

I don't see anyone else that seems a favorite to run up into the 700's

Even Cabrera would need to play average 36 a year for the next 12 years to get to 700. He should get at least as far as #7 if he holds up though.

I suppose Fielder is on a similar pace as Cabrera - a year younger and about 50 behind.

If Jose Bautista can hit 190 (or so) over the rest of his career, he could get into the Top 100 all time.

Chipper has said he's coming back next year. He's still a helluva hitter, but he's not the power source he used to be and I don't know that he can get the 22 HRs he needs to catch Musial, or the 25 more he'd need to become just the third man to hit 400 HRs as a third baseman (he's hit 375 at third, moving him past Nettles.) And a long, long way behind Schmidt and Matthews.

I'm not sure why, but third base seems to be a very tough position on guys. It seems to be just as bad as second base (obviously, nothing's as hard as being a catcher.) All kinds of really impressive power hitters have played third, and the best of them generally broke down and petered out in the 300-350 career homer range. There are actually more players who have played 2000 career games at second base than there are at third base, which is simply shocking to me.

when I suggested he could catch Musial, I was giving him 2 more seasons - he doesn't seem to want to go away just yet.

I agree he can't do it in one.

I think third base is the most "fast-twitch" of all baseball positions. On the majority of plays, even the routine ones, you don't have time for a bobble or an extra crow hop, the throws are too long. Second base, for all it's perils, is the opposite of this except for turning the double play. There is a margin of error and a few extra tenths of a second available for most plays. 

Third base would draw players with superlative reflexes, since no one else can play there (EE is a great example, he's just not quick enough. But I think I'd trust him a second base in a pinch if he was coached a bit). My theory, put forth with no backing whatsoever, is that high-end reflexes don't age well.

Rodriguez is also not playing in a good park for RH power hitters - without consulting the numbers, I assume the frequent road parks of Boston and Toronto would be favourable, with Baltimore relatively neutral and Tampa hurting a bit. Unlike his Yankee LH brethren, he does not get to hit many cheap homers. Using hittrackeronline, and the # of parks (indicating how many other parks the ball would have been a homer in), Granderson has 6 HRs in NY that wouldn't have gone out in 25+ other parks. Texeira has 7 such HRs (again, all in NY). Rodriguez has 1 of these this year at home, one on the road (Bautista has 1 HR in Fenway that meets my admittedly arbitrary criteria). My moral - anyone trying to break the HR record should find a comfy home like Aaron did for his later years. Busch stadium is probably not that place (it's deep everywhere, not an easy place to hit HRs), which is why Pujols should come to Toronto and hit 40-49 a year for 7 years.

Probably explains the dearth of 3B in the HOF, and why players like Scott Rolen should really be no-brainer inductees.

My theory, put forth with no backing whatsoever, is that high-end reflexes don't age well.

My theory, put forth with no backing whatsoever, is that third basemen are forced to make a great many unnatural plays - off-balance throws off the wrong foot, desperate dives and stops and charges, all kinds of sudden and drastic stuff that the body eventually gets tired of...

" My theory, put forth with no backing whatsoever, is that high-end reflexes don't age well."

Aged observers (70+ IIRC) do show a reduction in type 2 (fast-twitch) muscle fibers:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7493202

...70 year olds aren't mid-30s elite athletes who play 3B but... well youneverknow.

As for the difficult/unnatural plays a 3B has to make -- just because a SS has so many more chances, the number of difficult/unnatural plays they have to make be larger?

What Alex said - because third basemen have no time to spare. They have to hurry. No one throws more often on the run.

The steroid era caused many of us to assume that ballplayers under 35 are not old, but historically lots of players have had brilliant careers in their 20s and have done virtually nothing in their 30s. Dale Murphy comes to mind - someone who Bill James thought was a near lock for the Hall of Fame - had his last good season at age 31. Andruw Jones might just be a guy who aged fast (last good season at age 29), rather than a guy who was actually a lot older than listed.

That said, Pujols is a special talent, he's still in excellent shape, and he does not play a demanding defensive position - I think he will be an elite hitter until age 38 at the least.

As I showed in Pujols' similarity scores, it is normal for star quality at his level to stay good until around 35 when injuries start catching up to them. As long as they can swing the bat they are useful, but eventually they just can't play the field anymore.

Pujols, if he wants a long career, should go to the AL to get a few games in at DH on a regular basis so his health can hold up, and if it starts going down he'll be able to DH exclusively at some point. Of course, the alternative is to sign a 10 year deal with someone who thinks he'll last like Bonds without 'flaxseed oil' thus keep getting put in the lineup due to the massive money being spent regardless.