Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - New Hampshire Gose Out With a Bang

The minor league season wrapped up for a few teams on Monday night, though the incredible number of affiliates in the playoffs means the MLUs will continue for at least a few more days.

Salt Lake 2 at Las Vegas 10

Las Vegas finished off its season in classic Las Vegas fashion, banging out 10 runs on 13 hits against the Bees. Among the hitlessless were Darin Mastroianni (4-5), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-5, 3B), Ryan Shealy (1-3, HR, BB) and Manny Mayorson (3-3 2 2B, BB). Hech finishes his Las Vegas tour at .389/.431/.537 in 108 at bats.

It should be noted that Hech's peripherals at Vegas are eerily similar to those at New Hampshire - he's striking out and walking at about the same rate, and his isolated on base is about the same as it was in NH. His power has improved, as his isolated slugging has gone from .102 in NH to .148 in Vegas. However, I hate to be a downer, but aside from this mild increase in power (some of which is likely due to the Vegas effect), his Vegas hot streak looks to be mostly BABIP-driven. On the other hand, it's possible that Hech genuinely has improved his hitting by improving his batted ball profile. Regardless, I think he should be in the minors for another full season.

Fittingly, the 51s concluded their season with their ace Brad Mills on the hill. Mills had a typically good outing, tossing 6.2 innings while allowing eight base-runners and two runs. The lefty struck out six. Brad didn't pitch well in Toronto, but I could see him having success in the National League.

New Hampshire 8 at Portland 3

If Monday was any indication, New Hampshire is ready for the playoffs. The Cats slugged their way to an 8-3 victory courtesy of home runs by Anthony Gose, who also singled, doubled, walked and stole his 70th base, and John Tolisano. Yohan Pino got the start, presumably because he's not part of the playoff rotation, but made a strong bid for some playoff action by tossing six strong innings, allowing just two runs on four hits and K'ing seven. Deck McGuire came off the DL and threw two innings of relief. He didn't allow a run and struck out three.

Dunedin - no game scheduled. Dunedin will start their playoff series with Daytona tomorrow.

Lansing 2 at Dayton 3

Jonathan Jones did his part... but he was the only one. Jones had a perfect day, going 4-4 with a walk and stealing three bases, but his teammates could only bring him home once, which is not surprising considering his teammates only accumulated two hits between them.

Marcus Walden pitched pretty well in getting the last start of Lansing's regular season. He threw five innings and allowed two runs, one earned.

Eugene 8 at Vancouver 3

It was New Hampshire Opposite Day in Vancouver! That's not a real day. Anyway, the Canadians dropped the first game of their postseason and now face elimination tomorrow night. Eugene beat up on Blake McFarland (5 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 ER, 3 K) and Kramer Champlin (1 IP, 4 H, 3 R) and the offense couldn't match that output despite Nicholas Baligod (2-4, HR)'s best efforts.

The seasons are over for Bluefield, the GCL Jays and the DSL Jays.

Three Stars!
3. Brad Mills - 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
2. Jonathan Jones - 4-4, BB, 3 SB
1. Anthony Gose - 1B, 2B, HR, BB, SB

Posted by Dave Rutt on Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 03:07 AM EDT.

New Hampshire Gose Out With a Bang | 26 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

gabrielthursday - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 04:27 AM EDT (#243244) #

Regarding Hech, I think we can take real cheer from his performance in AAA. While BABIP-driven, we know that batters have more control over their BABIP, and I believe this is more so the case in the minor leagues, where there is a greater range of talent. A .471 BABIP is unsustainable everywhere, but neither should we imagine his .267 BABIP in New Hampshire to be his true talent.

What is more promising is his progress in ISO and BB%. In his four stops so far, his ISO has gone .099, .087, .112, .148 while his BB% has gone from 3.0% to 4.4% to 5.0% to 6.9%. At the same time, his K% has only marginally increased despite moving up 2 levels (18.1% in AAA from ~15% in A & AA). If Hech can continue to make improvements to his game, he could hit respectably for a shortstop, even well. He is still only 22, after all.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#243245) #

The one thing I remember about Hech's numbers shortly before his promotion were his severe LH/RH splits. He hit around 300 with decent peripherals against lefties, but .,209 with a sub .300 OBP vs righties. In Vegas he hit an identical .389 against both LHP and RHP. However, it's his BB/SO that show a bit of a red flag - 6 BB/5 SO vs LHP, 2 BB/18 SO vs RHP. To me he seems pretty well major league ready against left hand pitching, it's the improvement against right handers that will determine his future as a hitter.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#243261) #

Heck of a job by Gose to move up a level, add 40 points of OPS, and dramatically improve his SB prowess, finishing with a 70:15 SB:CS ratio. The only thing that concerns me is the increase in Ks and the mediocre BA (given his speed). He certainly has the potential to break out in 2012. Hopefully the AFL experience helps him consolidate the gains he has made this year.

eldarion - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#243268) #

I echo the comments in support of Gose; I think he's had a tremendous year given his age and the level at which he was performing. Yes, he has some warts but he has a lot of time to address them and, even if such improvements are minimal, a gold glove caliber centre fielder who can net you 50-60 stolen bases is enormously valuable. I hope he isn't undervalued when it comes time to rank the prospects again during the off-season.

uglyone - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#243281) #

I'd say "some warts" is actually "one wart". But it is a pretty large "wart" - his Contact rate, as seen in both his K-rate and his AVG.

Chuck - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#243282) #

I hope he isn't undervalued when it comes time to rank the prospects again during the off-season.

I ask this in all seriousness: who cares how Gose is perceived by those who construct such lists?

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#243283) #

the incredible number of affiliates in the playoffs

A note from down here in Tejas .... the Rangers' High-A affiliate was eliminated on the final day of the regular season, or else there was a chance, assuming (knock wood) the Rangers hang on to their lead in the West, that for the first ime in the history of professional ball, every single team in an organization's major/minor structure would have played in the post-season.

Surprised it never happened in the '40s-'50s Yankees heyday, but teams would have SO many affiliates at that time ....

MatO - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#243284) #

I ask this in all seriousness: who cares how Gose is perceived by those who construct such lists?

These lists should all have a rider: For discussion purposes only. Do not take seriously.

Where was Alvarez in the top 100? How many guys were ahead of Lawrie?

uglyone - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#243285) #

I don't think it's weird to care about how your team's players and prospects are perceived around the league in general.

uglyone - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#243286) #

And I'm still a bit boggled about how the likes of Gose and Arencibia couldn't crack the top-100 last year.

Forkball - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#243289) #

Unless you're looking to potentially trade a player it shouldn't make an ounce of difference how players are ranked. No one gets to hang a banner for having the #1 rated farm system.

And for that matter, I wouldn't think that a team, in looking to acquire a prospect, is going to rely on the BA Handbook as its resource for how good a player is.

Jonny German - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#243290) #

You "shouldn't" care about how an arbitrary group of millionaires performs playing a game against other arbitrary groups of millionaires either.

It's all part of the entertainment.

bball12 - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#243291) #

Good rule of thumb when reading prospect rankings.

1st question - "Dear Author - have you seen the player play the game in person - Yes or No"

Then - you go from there.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#243292) #

You "shouldn't" care about how an arbitrary group of millionaires performs playing a game against other arbitrary groups of millionaires either.

That's not entirely accurate - we have players who are only hundreds-of-thousandsaires. However, if they don't perform, they should be replaced by millionaires.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#243293) #

As far as prospect evaluation, there is something to be said for using multiple sources also. You may see a pitcher on a day all his pitches are working and be blown away, or you see the same pitcher on a day he just doesn't have it and write him off. His true talent level is somewhere in between and that's where more input is helpful.

TamRa - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#243295) #

1st question - "Dear Author - have you seen the player play the game in person - Yes or No"

It's worse than that - not everyone who sees a player play is equally capeable of evaluating what they saw, AND the reliability of the evaluation increases exponentially depending on the number of "looks"

I would suggest that the number of player evaluators out there, not employed by baseball teams, who see the players (ALL of those they speak of) and are skilled evaluators AND get, say, 10-15 looks at each of those players (still not a huge sample) is vanishingly small - and not all of those write for the public.

In other words, it's all in fun and if we over-analyze it the whole thing vanishes like a vapor.

I'm reminded of the person who ask, via twitter, of Kevin Goldsiten and Kieth Law (and probably others I don't follow) whether they liked marisnick or Yelich better. Law said Yelich, slightly, but liked both - Goldstien said Marisnick by a mile.

Neither person can easily be derided as having not seen the players or being unskilled - so whatchagonnado?

For me, I make lists and have never seen anything more than a youtube clip on any of them - I do this by trying to synthesize as many varying opinions as I can find into something similar to a consensus. I assume many others do likewise. To an extent, that's probably how BA works even. Various employees see various players and they come up with a consensus opinion by exchanging info.

Still, the bottom line is - don't over think it or you won't trust anything.

Ron - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#243296) #

With the Fisher Cats making the playoffs, I wonder if it's a wise move for D'Arnaud to be playing in the World Cup. He's probably going to be the starting catcher on the team. The official roster hasn't been released yet, but I know Brett Jackson is also on the team.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#243297) #

Also, if you see a player, but you're not a professional evaluator, then what are you basing your opinion on? As TamRa points out, it's probably easier for the average fan to piece together rankings based on publicly-available scouting reports and video and statistical performance.

If you watched Gose in April, you might have thought he was a bust. In May, he probably looked like the second coming of Eric Davis. In June, he was back to bust territory. And so on. Tough to tell a lot from seeing a player once or twice, although it's helpful to have a visual.

Things have gotten a lot more interesting for fans as the quantity of information out there has increased. No doubt this trend will continue, with more video, more scouting reports, more nuanced stats, etc.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#243299) #

This is part of what I like about AA. He has many, many scouts out there and merges their views with his own. If it is a major cash requirement (see Japan trip) he goes and looks himself, but generally he seems to trust those he has hired to do their jobs. No one person can see the thousands of prospects out there in the minors, let alone the kids in college and high school and overseas and ... thus the value in multiple opinions.

For us fans, if a player we hope will be a star (such as Gose) fails to make top 100 lists we have every reason to get concerned that he may not be all that. If a guy makes the top 10 of a few lists (like Wells and Delgado used to do) then we know he probably is the stud we all think he is. That is why we should hope to see many Jays on the top 100 lists. Plus, after the season is over, what else are we going to do that is baseball related? :)

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#243305) #

I doubt very much that any evaluator has seen in-person all of players who might reasonably be one of the top 10 prospects of each team within the previous six months (which, for a prospect, is a long, long time). Everyone relies for these comparisons (to some degree or other) on 2nd hand in-person accounts from persons trusted by the evaluator, television/internet viewings, and statistical analysis of some type, as well as in-person accounts.

So, for instance, John Sickels saw Brett Lawrie a few months ago and filed a helpful report. Many of us have seen him on TV/internet or live at spring training. We had a pretty good idea about him in June. But, how many prospect evaluators had seen Drew Hutchison or Nestor Molina pitch within the previous three months in June? Not many. Gerry's interviews, observations and video are great, but to compare Nestor Molina with a low A shortstop in the (say) Mets' system is kind of ridiculous.

It's the comments and the reasoning that are more interesting than the rankings.

Lugnut Fan - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#243314) #

I believe that D'Arnaud is playing in the Pan Am games and not the World Cup. Michael Crouse and Adam Loewen will be in the same tournament playing for Canada (not sure what Loewen's call up means for his roster spot). That tournament shouldn't interfere with any playoff runs as it looks like training camp for the national teams don't start until Sept. 27th.

bball12 - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#243318) #

You don't have to be an expert to know that most of the Top 50 every year are special.

A well trained monkey could tell you that Brett Cecil was special at 15 yrs old - or that Andrew McCutcheon was special at 13 years old.
Same for the Uptons.

More than anything - credibility is built through honesty and hard work.

When a reknowned "expert" states that a player is a weakling - and then you go to the game and see him and he looks/acts and plays like a defensive back for the Oakland Raiders - something is very wrong.

Caveat emptor.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#243321) #

I suspect the majors (Baseball America for example) have their scouts rate players on a scale (100=HOFer, 1=to be released shortly for example) then uses those to rank players overall. Possibly with an adjustment for scouts who they know rate players (or certain types of players) higher or lower than they should.

Individuals who rank have a smaller base, just their own stats/observations. Fun lists, but in the vast majority of cases far less accurate I'd suspect.

Problem with evaluating these lists is you need 5-10 years to know if they are accurate, at which point many involved have changed (for groups) or methods have adjusted. Ah well, for us fans it is just fun.

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