I'm surprised there are people worried about a 26 year old outfielder who OPS'd under .700 in AA ball.  C'mon, the Jays have 100 prospects better than Mastroianni.  He didn't look very good in the outfield in the game he played for the Jays either.  There were a couple of balls that fell in that a good defensive CF would catch.  At least Wise will give them some good defense.  Neither one is likely to hit more than about .200.

As far as Lowen is concerned, I remain somewhat skeptical.  It would be a great story if he could make it, and he does seem to offer some power and speed, but that .300 average at LV is not as impressive as it sounds.  Remember Arencibia hit.300 at LV last year too, with about twice as many HR's.  I usually knock off about 60 points of batting average for an LV player to get a more realistc number.  Loewen is 27, the age at which the average ballplayer reaches his peak and starts to fight mother nature as the reflexes, speed, tendon elasticity, etc. start their slow inexorable decline.  Of course, you have to allow for the fact that he just started to hit full time in 2009, so he still may be able to improve for a couple more years.  I figure he'll be up in September, and it will be nice to see him in a Jays uniform.  It will be interesting to see what happens with him next year.

I don't see any 40-man roster problem this offseason either.  I highly doubt they lose anybody of significance in the Rule 5.  In addition to the free agents, there is a fair bit of deadwood on the current 40-man which could be jettisoned if they need room.  Teahen, Lewis, Mastroianni, Wise, Walters, maybe Farina, there's lots of room.

Next year's outfield looks pretty full already to me with Bautista, Rasmus, Davis, Thames and Snider - there are far more pressing problems to address, although Thames is a really, really bad outfielder.  Hard to see him suddenly improving that much in one offseason.  I mean, it's not like he hasn't been working on it for years now already.  The question is whether he hits enough to carry his glove.  At has age he should still have a fair bit of upside to his hitting, and maybe he can get closer to just somewhat below average with the mit.  Snider is still the guy I think is the best bet for LF longer term, but this year has knocked him down a peg or two.

Perez pitched pretty well again today - he seems to be making quite an impression - he actually is making himself a decent candidate for next year's starting rotation.  A couple of months ago, I wouldn't have though much of his chances.  I figure Villanueva is a better fit for the pen than the rotation.  If you start with him, Janssen and Litsch, you've got a decent start on things.  Maybe they bring Fancisco back.  Then they need a lefty, a closer and maybe one more, who could come internally - Carreno looked good the other day, and they seem to think he's got a shot at being there next year.  Farquhar maybe has a shot, too.

I see both Villanueva and Perez getting a good shot at starting rotation jobs in spring training  (unless AA obtains a couple of veterans in trades).  If either or both are bumped out of the rotation, they'll probably do fine in the bullpen, but I think they'll both get a good long look as possible starters in spring training.  Without them, there just isn't enough depth to fill the rotation.  I'm not counting on Drabek until mid-2012 or later, and McGowan is still a long shot for the rotation at this point.  Alvarez might need more time in the minors too, or the bullpen.  So who else is there?  Romero, Morrow, Cecil and who?

I know Villanueva faded a lot in his last few starts, but it's quite possible that he was fatigued or injured.  He had a series of excellent starts when he first joined the rotation, and it's worth exploring his rotation potential.

Long term, of course, Villanueva and Perez will probably be pushed aside by the Hutchisons and Molinas and McGuires, but those prospects still need at least a half-year or year at the AA or AAA level next season. 

The bullpen for 2012 could feature Janssen, Litsch, Francisco (if AA is willing to give up a Type B draft pick), a couple of free-agent signings or trade acquisitions, and whichever of Perez or Villanueva doesn't win a starting job, plus possibly Alvarez or McGowan or Drabek if they're not ready for a starting job. If the new acquisitions are good enough, there's the makings of an excellent bullpen there.

Considering that Thames had only 814 plate appearances above the A level of the minors before his promotion to the Blue Jays this season, it's reasonable to conclude that he's still learning and has the potential to improve significantly at the major-league level in the future.

On a related note -- it's interesting to see how many fans have begun to contemplate the use of Travis Snider as trade bait at this point.  Considering that he's only 23, it seems rather early to give up on the guy.  He's had a very frustrating year, and there are certainly some worrisome signs in his development, but he still has a chance to put it together by the age of 24 or 25.

Other possibilities for promotion to the bullpen, I suppose, might be Sean Henn, Danny Farquhar or the newly acquired Kyle Davies.

As for Jeroloman: I wonder if he was promoted to allow the Jays to put Molina at DH more often, showcasing him for a possible trade.

Mike, you're right about Ledezma's career splits. This season, however, he held LH hitters to a .206 batting average and a 0.98 ERA (although it was just 18 innings). Perhaps he was supposed to be a lefty-killer for the Jays after his promotion. But, oddly enough, Rommie Lewis fulfills the same role, holding LH hitters to a .180 average this year. It's unclear why the Jays decided to promote two guys for the same role. Ledezma was certainly expendable if Lewis is equally effective at getting lefties out.

As for the timing of the release of Ledezma, Purcey, Miller etc -- I suspect the Jays had already 90 per cent decided to release these guys, and their final bad appearance just gave them a reason to pull the trigger at that moment.

uglyone, the only point of diagreement i have with your analysis is being critical of management for giving extended chances. AA will be bringing in players through fFee Agency. If players see that a team treats its players fairly and gives them every chance to succeed, it can only contibute positively in choosing to sign with Toronto.

If players see that a team treats its players fairly and gives them every chance to succeed, it can only contibute positively in choosing to sign with Toronto.

One would hope that the organization is targetting free agents whose skill level is not so low that the threat of a DFA dangles like the sword of Damocles.

Just an aside but I checked out Bluebird Banter a few minutes ago:

Boy oh boy - you talk about someone not liking the Wise move - I dont think the author liked it very much at all.