Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - There He Gose. There He Gose Again (And Again)

There He Gose. There He Gose Again (And Again)

Four wins in seven tries for the affiliates on Thursday.

Here's a couple of things you don't see every day: A shutout in the PCL and David Cooper going hitless. Cooper went 0-for-3 and saw his average plunge to .371. Adeiny Hechavarria was 1-for-4 with a triple and is now hitting an even .400.

Chad Gaudin started and went six shutout frames allowing just four hits. Danny Farquhar picked up the save.

Harrisburg 6 New Hampshire 4

Anthony Gose had one of those Goseian nights. He struck out twice as he so often does. But he wreaked havoc the other two times up, singling twice and stealing bases not once, not twice, but thrice to give him 64 on the year.

John Tolisano continued his mini-tear with a homer and three driven in. Tolisano's interesting. He's not particularly good but shows a decent amount of power for being a smallish guy and still young for the Eastern League.

Yohan Pino started and struck out ten in seven innings. He's almost 28 so don't go adding him to any prospect piles.

Lakeland 2 Dunedin 1 (Game One)

Kevin Ahrens had a couple of hits while Sean Ochinko had one. And that's that.

Andrew Liebel was pretty good in this one going five and allowing two runs, both unearned, on three hits and a walk. Brian Tallet pitched the sixth and struck out two.

Lakeland 3 Dunedin 5 (Game Two)

Kenan Bailli, the newest Cuban defector, smacked his first professional homer. Jon Talley had his 15th.

Casey Lawrence started this one and went 6.2, allowing three runs on seven hits. He didn't walk anybody and struck out five.

Bowling Green 2 Lansing 5

Justin Nicolino made his first start since his promotion to the Midwest League and acquited himself fairly nicely. Nicolino went five and struck out four against one walk. He allowed two runs on seven hits.

Carlos Perez had a nice night at the dish reaching all four times on a double, walk, and two singles. Jake Marisnick had a double and drove in two while KC Hobson had two hits.

Tri-City 5 Vancouver 7

Balbino Fuenmayor went 3-for-4 with two doubles and a pair driven in to pace the Vancouver offense. Matt Newman was the only other Canadian with two hits.

Zack Breault started and allowed four runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings.

Elizabethton 17 Bluefield 8

Whoa. Let's get the pitching ugliness out of the way first. Mitchell Taylor started and got rocked. He allowed nine runs, all earned, on eight hits in 2.1 innings. Interestingly, he walked one and struck out five.

Daniel Arcila had a nice night at the plate going 3-for-5 with a homer and four driven in. Eric Arce was 2-for-5 with a double.

GCL Blue Jays @ GCL Braves- Cancelled

Three Stars:

3rd Star: Anthony Gose- 2-for-4, R, 3 SB

2nd Star: Daniel Arcilo- 3-for-5, HR, 4 RBI

1st Star: Carlos Perez- 3-for-3, BB, 2B

Posted by braden on Friday, August 26 2011 @ 09:41 AM EDT.

There He Gose. There He Gose Again (And Again) | 119 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#242380) #

I think gose may becoming our most underrated prospect, due to not having eye-popping stats lines at a very young age.

he's probably the best basestealer in all of milb, and has a good argument to be called the beat defensive cf in milb, too.

and he's shown very good patience and power at the plate this year, especially for a 20yr old in aa.

he's not perfect of course, and his one major weakness might be in the most important baseball skill - contact - but still the kid is pretty dang impressive imo.

Paul D - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#242381) #

According to mlbtr:

The Blue Jays announced that they signed non-drafted free agent Luke Willson, a left-handed hitter who also plays tight end for the Rice University Owls.

sweat - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#242382) #

I think I read somewhere that he was Canadian and batted cleanup on Team Canada while Lawrie batted third.

jester00 - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#242384) #

Little info on Wilson from a blogger @ Rice:

http://blog.chron.com/owls/2011/08/rice-tight-end-willson-signs-with-blue-jays/

Looks like he'll play this football season and report to the Jays minor league complex in the spring.

Paul D - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#242385) #

Wait, so he didn't play baseball at Rice? Interesting signing.

China fan - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#242386) #

Cuban defector Bailli has an OPS of .896 after four games for Dunedin, including the HR last night. Here's a tweet by Marc Hulet from last night, commenting on Bailli's potential: " Potential fourth outfielder. Good hitter for average, not much pop. Not sure on the fielding; probably not a CFer though."

He is listed as being born in Guantanamo. I thought that was a US military base?? Cubans live there too?

92-93 - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#242388) #

uglyone, do you have any sources on Gose being one of the best defensive CFs in the minors? I haven't read enough on his D.

Anders - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#242389) #

Gose is really fast and throws 96. I suppose that would be the basis for thinking he is a great defender. Who knows in practice.

Jonny German - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#242390) #

Gerry reported that BA rated Gose as the fastest baserunner, Best defensive outfielder and Most exciting player in Double A.
Thread: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20110811022250988

As for being underrated, uglyone, where do you think most people rate him? I'd call him #2 behind d'Arnaud. But he fits most of my biases, most importantly that I need to see a guy perform above A-ball before I'll be completely sold on him.

sam - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#242391) #

I think Billy Hamilton takes the award for best base stealer, but Gose is sure impressive in that category. He has improved his stolen base percentage as the year has progressed. And reports are he's a very good defensive CF. I'd like him to start AA again next year, but I'd imagine the Jays will move him up to AAA along with Sierra, McDade, and d'Arnaud.

Next year's spring training will be interesting for him though. As I recall, this year he made a point to take incredibly big leads and tried to steal second on every single pitch to showcase his skills to management. I hope he comes to camp with a more refined base stealing game and some more contact to his game. I've said this before, and I'll say it again, a guy with his speed and ability should not be hitting .250. With that being said he's improved his walk rate which was probably the main thing management had asked him to work on.

Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#242392) #

BA had Gose as one of its top 50 prospects in baseball. I really like him, and have liked him since he was acquired, but I wouldn't say that anyone is underrating him now. He does have the contact issue. Incidentally, as is common for LH hitters, he has a very significant platoon split. If he was forced into a major league role early in 2012, you would probably want to platoon him with Davis.

Spifficus - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#242393) #

BA had him ranked as the best defensive OF in the system before the season. I thought he had received some other sort of recognition recently, but I can't seem to find it. While looking for it, though, all Google captions were between complimentary and mythic.

Beyonder - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#242394) #

"he's probably the best basestealer in all of milb." Seems unlikely so long as this guy's around:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hamilt002bil

sam - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#242395) #

I'd like to see him replicate his month of may (hello arcade fire) at least twice next year at New Hampshire before a promotion.

Jbar - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#242397) #

A "sixpence none the richer" themed Minor League Report? Is a rehash of the great Gilmore Girls discussion of 08 or 09 (whenever it was) far behind?

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#242398) #

uglyone, do you have any sources on Gose being one of the best defensive CFs in the minors? I haven't read enough on his D.

He's been voted best defensive CF in each of his last two leagues and years, despite being one of the youngest guys in that league. And his speed/arm are 2nd to none so there's no conflict there. Tough to gauge MILB defense but there seems to be a pretty good consensus that he's as good as most anyone there.

As for being underrated, uglyone, where do you think most people rate him? I'd call him #2 behind d'Arnaud. But he fits most of my biases, most importantly that I need to see a guy perform above A-ball before I'll be completely sold on him.

Well BA seems to rate him near where I do (only now this year - how he didn't crack their top-100 coming into this season mystified me a bit), but other sources like Sickels and Law continue to rate him significantly lower. And it seems to me most Jays fans seem to be very skeptical of his MLB potential, and are more than ready to put prospects the same age but two levels lower ahead of him in their minds (i.e. Marisnick this year, Perez last year, etc.)....despite the fact that a guy like Marisnick two levels lower is only showing a performance edge in one area (contact) this year. I find that people are unwilling to give Gose credit or adjust his numbers at all based on him being one of the youngest players at any level he's ever been at, and the same age group as the top guys two lower levels in our system.

"he's probably the best basestealer in all of milb." Seems unlikely so long as this guy's around:

wow. my mistake. 2nd best basestealer in MILB, then.

Ron - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#242401) #

Goldstein has described the Jays as the new flavor of the month. First it was the A's when Moneyball came out, than it went to the Red Sox and Rays, and now it's the Blue Jays. Goldstein likes what AA has done since taking over as GM, but before Jays fans build him a Statue, they actually need to win games at the major league level. He gets more messages from Jays fans now than from Red Sox and Yankee fans.

He said Gose has the rare 80 tool. He gives Gose an 80 for his arm (he hit 97 on the gun in High School). The other 80 belongs to Harper for his power and Hamilton for his speed.

He think Hutchinson's upside is a number 3 Starter and Marisnick is the best position player he has seen in the MWL this season.

Ryan Day - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#242403) #

I find that people are unwilling to give Gose credit or adjust his numbers at all based on him being one of the youngest players at any level he's ever been at, and the same age group as the top guys two lower levels in our system.

It's a question of what he's done, rather than what he could do. Maybe if Gose spent the year at Dunedin, he'd have hit .290 and struck out less than once a game, and he'd get more universal praise. But he didn't, so he's still the guy with the career .259 batting average (and he's been remarkably consistent in achieving that), which isn't the sort of thing you see in most top prospects. There aren't a lot of players with similar skillsets who became super successful - Mike Cameron is all I can find,

There's probably an excellent chance Gose turns into a legit star prospect if he spends another season in AA. But right now, he's got some fantastic skills and a very big hole in his game.

Jonny German - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#242404) #

Goldstein has described the Jays as the new flavor of the month. First it was the A's when Moneyball came out, than it went to the Red Sox and Rays, and now it's the Blue Jays

A's: Playoffs 4 years in a row and 5 of 7, averaged 95 wins those 7 years
Rays: Playoffs 2 of 3 years (including WS once), averaged 92 wins those 3 years
Red Sox: Playoffs 6 of 7 years (including 2 WS wins), averaged 94 wins those 7 years

Being Kevin Goldstein's "flavour of the month" is not the most biting insult I've ever heard.

DaveB - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#242405) #

He gives Gose an 80 for his arm

And Gose doesn't even have the best OF arm on his own team. That belongs to Sierra.

Gerry - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#242407) #

There are 5 hitting tools but the hitting for average tool is the most important for a player like Gose. As Mike Green mentioned above Gose still strikes out a lot and goes through periods where he doesn't hit. Remember when Gose was acquired a year ago the Jays went to work to redo his swing? In my opinion Gose's swing is not "locked-in" yet, he is still working to make it consistent, as many 21 years old's have to do. I would send Gose back to AA to start 2012 and if he hits well move him up to AAA when he is ready.

Gose would also be a good candidate for the AFL.

92-93 - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#242410) #

I'd take Goldstein a little more seriously if he admitted how wrong he was about the Tyler Beede situation.

Spifficus - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#242411) #

Both he and Law already did that. They said they had wrong info (their sources had heard that Beede had a predraft deal with someone, and Toronto took him, so there was an assumption that the deal was with Toronto). I don't understand why this is a hangup... not all info people like that get from sources is correct, even when the intentions are innocent enough.

92-93 - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#242412) #

I have no problem with Goldstein reporting that a pre-draft deal is done. My issue is with the way he spoke about AA's denial of it on his podcast, and the lack of a true follow up to that discussion after finding out he was wrong.

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#242414) #

I take more issue with Law because he is so liberal with handing out comments disparaging the Jays its just unprofessional.

It's all well and good that he "apologized" for being dead wrong about a very, very serious allegation (though he didn't apologize for all his dismissive sarcastic comments towards anyone who doubted his story, and even with his apology he passed the blame buck and tried to make it not such a big deal), but until he stops freely giving credit to any negative rumour towards the jays (hello, stealing signs!), I don't buy his apology at all.

Law is a petty, petty man.

Spifficus - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#242416) #

Somewhere a kitten just died.

TangledUpInBlue - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#242417) #

A "sixpence none the richer" themed Minor League Report?

The La's, my friend, The La's.

Jbar - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#242418) #

Thanks for the correction to my lack of musical knowledge. :)

Spifficus - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#242419) #

You're continuously railing against AA, Beeston and Rogers for perceived Doublespeak and the disconnect between their proclamations on budgets vs their actions. If the information were correct, AA would have had to strongly deny the rumors, just as he did, to try to avoid an MLB investigation. So he used a meme of the Explanation to Alex as a process of describing why pre-draft deals are an OK thing. I thought it was amusing given the context of AA's press conference where he was questioning why you would even do that. As for after, meh. He touched on it enough in the podcast and over twitter. He had wrong intel. It happens. The revelry in the fact that he was wrong was hilarious... except for the fact that it meant the Jays didn't get him signed.

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#242420) #

It's a question of what he's done, rather than what he could do. Maybe if Gose spent the year at Dunedin, he'd have hit .290 and struck out less than once a game, and he'd get more universal praise. But he didn't, so he's still the guy with the career .259 batting average (and he's been remarkably consistent in achieving that), which isn't the sort of thing you see in most top prospects. There aren't a lot of players with similar skillsets who became super successful - Mike Cameron is all I can find,

See right there in your first sentence, you completely dismiss any consideration of his age for his level, and I just can't agree with that. Even with your Mike Cameron example - Mike was 2 years older than Gose when he put up similar numbers at every level up to AA...and then the one year he was held back at AA for a 2nd year (at age 23), he exploded at the plate. At the same age as Gose is now, Green was posting an .706ops in AA, Rios was posting a .651ops in the Sally, D'Arnaud was posting a .738ops in the Sally, and then of course there's this comparison....

B.Lawrie (20): 609pa, 7.7bb%, 19.4k%, .285avg, .350babip, .164iso, 0.22sb, 69.8sb%, .361woba

A.Gose (20): 543pa, 10.9bb%, 26.0k%, .255avg, .330babip, .158iso, 0.50sb, 82.1sb%, .361woba

Mylegacy - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#242421) #

I too would like to defend Law.

About Bautista he recently put up (for insiders only) an excellent defense of why Bautista is the MVP. He got a ton on crude, rude and assholery comments - including some saying, "Ya well the guy worked for the Jay's what do you expect." He stuck by his conclusions.

To paraphrase my favorite beer commercial, "I don't always read baseball columnists, but when I do, I read KLaw." Not that it matters but he is also intelligent, very well read, a self made chef and politically astute. Except for the intelligent, well read, chef and astute parts - a man much like myself!

85bluejay - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#242422) #

My memory is that Law has been mostly complimentary of AA and the new Jays FO but he does have a glib style (which I'm okay with) - of course, for my friend Uglyone, it's the George Bush approach when it comes to his Jays "either you're with us 100% of the time or you're against us"

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#242424) #

This seems like a case of selective memory. Law is continuously defending Bautista in the face of hush-hush Roid allegations (the ones that are "There must be something fishy going on..."). Also, if I'm remembering it right, aside from one oblique comment on his days in Toronto, his opinion was, "The article's interesting but with flaws... People who are disparaging Amy Nelson based on her gender are disgusting."

No offense, Spifficus, but I think you're the one with the selective memory. Keith defended the stealing signs piece quite aggressively, said nothing to disagree with it, and went on to point out that there have been rumours of jays stealing signs for years now...even when he worked on the team - without of course saying whether or not they actually were stealing signs back when he worked for the team.

As for him defending Joey B....he's been one of Joey's biggest skeptics, and ripped AA mercilessly for the contract he signed him to this offseason.

greenfrog - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#242425) #

I mostly enjoy Klaw but he went too far with his "reporting" of the alleged Beede pre-draft deal. He laid it on thick, dropping numerous references to the deal (and the parties' "denials," suggesting that he had solid inside intel, etc. If he had simply said, I've heard rumours of a pre-draft deal between Beede and the Jays, no big deal. What bothered me is that he rode the story (albeit intermittently) for weeks, each time in a knowing tone implying certainty, without ever acknowledging the possibility that the rumour might not be true - or the effects that such rumours might have on the negotiating process, especially in the case of a HS player like Beede who was already a risk not to sign.

92-93 - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#242426) #

Law even went as far on that podcast as to say that Jays fans should prove the man in white doesn't exist. It's funny that people think he deserves credit for championing the correct opinion, that being that Bautista is the league's most valuable player.

You're continuously railing against AA, Beeston and Rogers for perceived Doublespeak

Please don't lump AA in with the cheapness of Rogers facilitated by Beeston.

Spifficus - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#242428) #

Well, I went back to the 8/10 Baseball Today podcast, which was a good summation of what I remember reading on twitter, and I don't hear anything untoward in it.

As for his criticism of the Bautista contract, was he particularly harsh on that? What he saw was someone who just had a career year by far, and just got locked up for the downslope of his career. I'd hardly say that he was alone in the criticism, that it was unreasonable, or that it showed any kitty-killing bias. What he's said after, once Bautista's performance has dismissed the career year concerns, are far more telling to me. There have been lots of opportunities to go Damian Cox, but instead he's been a voice of reason against the fanatics.

Gerry - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#242429) #

Because of the hurricane the Fisher Cats are playing a doubleheader today and a noon game tomorrow, with Sunday now being an off-day.

adrianveidt - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#242430) #

How soon before the Jays can get into a better AAA affiliation than the one with Vegas?

TamRa - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#242431) #

Well BA seems to rate him near where I do (only now this year - how he didn't crack their top-100 coming into this season mystified me a bit), but other sources like Sickels and Law continue to rate him significantly lower. And it seems to me most Jays fans seem to be very skeptical of his MLB potential, and are more than ready to put prospects the same age but two levels lower ahead of him in their minds (i.e. Marisnick this year, Perez last year, etc.)....despite the fact that a guy like Marisnick two levels lower is only showing a performance edge in one area (contact) this year. I find that people are unwilling to give Gose credit or adjust his numbers at all based on him being one of the youngest players at any level he's ever been at, and the same age group as the top guys two lower levels in our system.

I've struggled with the Gose v. Marisnick question all year based on that specific point. On cold statistical fact I lean to the point that Gose is already at AA which is said to be the hardest leap and that HAS to give him an edge in consideration.

But I do worry nevertheless about the contact, the strikeouts, and the platoon split - that the difference in their outcomes is altogether a function of their location and not a superior skill set.

in other words he's at AA while Marisnick is not almost entirely because of how the Phillies and Jays respectively handled his early promotion schedule.
That is, if Marisnick had been at AA this year he'd almost certainly be having a comparable year to Gose - only with half as many steals.And if Gose were in Lansing the contact issues would be less obvious.

I ask Law (and intend to ask Goldstien and whoever else i can get an answer from) "Considering both potential ceiling and likelihood of success, which would you rather have?" and he picked Marisnick.

My own natural (unprofessional) hunch says Marisnick - based I think mostly on the thing that was said several times about Gose last year, that his ceiling is outstanding but his probability of success is not as high as some others - a greater chance he flames out like, for instance, Pie or Patterson. In fact, to put a finer point on it, i think it is specifically because Gose is reminiscent of those two recent examples in his game that people express caution about embracing him.

But I'm trying to filter out my own bias as much as possible.

Ugly, if you wanted to do a stat comparison - how does Gose's career so far compare to that of Patterson and Pie to the same point?

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#242432) #

As for his criticism of the Bautista contract, was he particularly harsh on that?

Like FoxNews, I'll let you decide....

ERIK KARABELL: Mr. Law, is this a good contract?

KEITH LAW: No. Of course not. [Laughs]. You have a player with an extremely spotty track record of performance and playing time who has one wildly outlying breakout year. You do not rush to give this guy a five-year contract, because the history of players like that-- particularly players-- I mean, it's not like Jose Bautista is 24 or 25 and just kind of emerged as a hitter. He's way past that point. The history of those guys is very poor. He's extremely unlikely to maintain that level of production.

The Rogers Centre last year played as a crazy home run park, and particularly for Blue Jays hitters, which is a very unusual split, and sure enough, Bautista was substantially better at home-- another thing that I just don't think he is at all likely to maintain. And the fact that he is pretty much a dead pull hitter, you can bet that over the course of this off-season plenty of front offices across the American League were looking at Bautista, saying, 'why aren't we pitching this guy differently?' You will see that come into play in 2011.

So, the park isn't going to play the same way, he's just going to regress because-- let's face it-- he is a lot more of what he was before 2010.

And don't give me September splits, that's a joke. Who do you face in September? You face the guys at the back of the 40-man roster.

He's going to be pitched differently in 2011. There are a slew of factors pointing to him taking at least a big step back for 2011, and maybe going all the way back, closer to what he was before the 2010 breakout season. You don't sign flukes to long-term deals. If he repeats it a second year, then you talk contract extension with him. But to jump on this one after one year that looks so different than everything that came before it in his career just made no sense.

And by the way, you just got rid of the albatross contract in Vernon Wells, why are you rushing to create at least the potential for a similar contract?

... After some interjection from Karabell and Mark Simon, Law added ...

And he'd be hitting free agency at age 31. So, if he's telling you this off-season 'I want a five year deal'-- I'm not signing Jose Bautista for his age 31 through 35 seasons, because I'm rarely signing any hitter for those seasons. By that point he's already leaving his peak, you know you're buying into at least some of the decline years. And a guy like Bautista, who did so little in his 20s, why do I think he's going to maintain his value well into his 30s? I'm betting he's going to decline faster than the typical hitter, again, for the same reason: it's just such a screaming outlier, what he did in 2010.

And I won't even bring up his opinions on recent Jays' prospects like Thames, JPA, or his take on the Wallace-Gose swap.

John Northey - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#242433) #

Interesting comparison of Gose vs Lawrie. Most forget how rare it is for a 20 year old to reach AA, or a 21 year old to reach the majors and be successful.

Jays of note who did that or better...
Tony Fernandez: AAA at 19 (!). At 20 (1982) he was still in AAA hitting 302/353/388 while Alfredo Griffin hit 241/269/314 in the majors - yet somehow Fernandez was left down for the next season and parts of '84 before finally being given the job for 1985.

Lloyd Moseby: Majors at 20 - 229/281/365 over 430 PA.

Alex Gonzalez (the 1st): AA at 20 - 289/339/451

Can anyone think of other kids who would've been AA or better at 20?

Spifficus - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#242434) #

Law even went as far on that podcast as to say that Jays fans should prove the man in white doesn't exist.

Not during the 4 minute segment he and Karabell spent on the topic on 8/10. I suppose it could have come up later, but I don't think the article really had the legs except for us Jays fans.

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#242435) #

Ugly, if you wanted to do a stat comparison - how does Gose's career so far compare to that of Patterson and Pie to the same point?

Gose may well bust. Most prospects do. Even the highly rated ones like #2 prospect in the world in 2001, Corey Patterson.

John Northey - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#242436) #

Felix Pie: age 20, AA, 304/349/554 over 59 games (injured)
In AAA at 21 he hit 283/341/451 (IL) then started yo-yo'ing between majors and minors.

Corey Patterson: age 20, AA, 261/338/491 (506 PA), then called up and hit 167/239/333 over 47 PA. At 22 was a regular, at 23 hit 298/329/511 and hasn't OPS+'ed over 96 since.

Beyonder - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#242437) #

Agree entirely with greenfrog. I recall in one of Klaw's chats he was asked what he thought of the sign stealing story, and whether he believed there was anything to the rumours. His response was that the story was excellent, and that he gave the allegations credence because he "knew some things" that the public wasn't privy to. I realise he's not a journalist of any sort, but it's totally unfair to malign an organization without giving them a chance to defend itself by giving specifics of your information.

For a guy who's forever going on about 'ad hominem' attacks, he's quick to rely on the flip side of such an attack (i.e. I'm Keith Law, therefore you should buy my argument).

There's clearly not going to be any resolution of the MVP debate, but I would suggest that any interpretation of "MVP" that gives the award to Bautista is inconsistent with the past 80 years of MVP voting. We may think it should (or wish it would) go to the 'best' player regardless of the strength of their teammates, but historically it has gone to the player contributing the most towards team success. A massive contribution to mediocrity is just that, although it has been exciting.

85bluejay - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#242438) #

MVP - I think that Curtis Granderson is already building his trophy case.

TamRa - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#242439) #

As for him defending Joey B....he's been one of Joey's biggest skeptics, and ripped AA mercilessly for the contract he signed him to this offseason.

How are these inconsistant?

Looking in from the outside, the deal WAS a huge gamble - Alex acknowledged that himself and not a few of us wondered at the wisdom of it - all the points he made about buying into the decline years are points often made on this board and the basis for Alex's position of caution concerning adding free agents on big deals.

It's the sort of stuff many of us say right now about Prince Fielder.

Alex made an exception based on their own internal assesment, but it was clearly an exception to the standard practice.

Now, as it turns out, Jose has gone out and had another MVP caliber year and law is, to his credit, acknowledging that and fighting against the pro-NY/Boston bias (the bias so many of us get pissed about) and that has nothing to do with what he thinks Bautista will be doing 4 years from now.

In fact, on Bautista, Law sound's precisely like Batter's Box.

Ryan Day - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#242440) #

At the same age as Gose is now, Green was posting an .706ops in AA, Rios was posting a .651ops in the Sally, D'Arnaud was posting a .738ops in the Sally, and then of course there's this comparison....

But none of those other players had the problems Gose does - lots of Ks and a low average. Even in the early, sucky part of his career, Rios didn't have strikeout problems; he also didn't make BA's Top 100 list until after his breakout 2003 season.

There simply aren't a lot of players who strike out a ton in the minors with low averages who become successful in the majors. Even Travis Snider managed to hit .300 in the minors, and he may never get anywhere near it in the majors.

I give Gose credit for holding his own in AA at a young age. I'd just give him more if he'd ever shown the ability to hit a baseball consistently.

China fan - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#242441) #

Turns out that Mike McCoy is not really the solution in CF during the Rasmus injury. The Jays have re-acquired DeWayne Wise for the 3rd time, and he reports on Saturday. A bit of a slap in the face to poor Darin Mastroianni, but I guess Wise is better in the short term at least.

China fan - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#242443) #

Also, poor Adam Loewen. But I guess he'll get his shot in September.

Jonny German - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#242444) #

I don't get this Wise move at all. He may be a better player for the next 2 weeks than Mastroianni or Loewen, but there's a very good chance he's not even that. He's got absolutely no upside beyond being a strictly-defense centrefielder and no chance of being in the 2012 Blue Jay plans.

China fan - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#242445) #

Agreed. Which is why I was agitating for Mastroianni or Loewen.

92-93 - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#242446) #

Spifficus, have a listen to Law attacking the straw man on 8/11. He completely ignores all the holes in the article and chooses to defend Amy from the sexist idiots, not the numerous people who presumably emailed in with actual valid points on the awful journalism on display.

Ryan Day - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#242447) #

Clearly the Jays have absolutely no faith in Mastroianni's abilities. In which case, I wonder why he's even on the roster.

sam - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#242448) #

I'd like to thank those who mentioned past busts. It's important to bring up. I mean the Jays system is deep and they have an assortment of players who have potential to contribute at the ML level, but I mean there are other prospecty-type sites out there about the Jays who basically assume super stardom of all Jays prospects.

For example, I'm not entirely convinced any of those position players at Double-A will amount to much at the ML level. They all come with serious question marks. I don't think Moises Sierra will hit enough at the ML level to warrant a corner outfield position. Anthony Gose really needs to hit for better average and lefties if he wants to play everyday. Mike McDade has to start walking more and probably has to develop some more power to warrant everyday at-bats, and Travis d'Arnaud despite putting up the best numbers is probably most against it considering the difficulty and demand managers have of catchers at ML level.

I mean, I think all of these guys are still a ways away from getting everyday at-bats at the ML level.

Spifficus - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#242449) #

Heh. I'm listening to 8/11 right now, in fact. Haven't gotten to that part, though, but I always thought that was fine for him to go off on the sexist idiots.

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#242450) #

Looking in from the outside, the deal WAS a huge gamble

there is a very large gap between calling the deal a "gamble", and describing it like Keith did.

Discussing the deal without even mentioning what kind of player a $13m per year contract is worth, without even mentioning that Bautista's 2010 season was worth far more than $13m per year, without even mentioning that Bautista could regress severely and STILL be well worth that contract, without even mentioning that if Bautista possibly repeated his year that he would cost twice as much as that contract he signed the next year, and without even mentioning that there was more than one reason to believe that his 2010 season was more sustainable than mere random variation....in short, without even mentioning ANY of the many upsides to the deal......well, not even mentioning any of that seems pretty dang silly in retrospect, no?

The fact that he failed to consider all of this all while dismissing the deal in his all too typical mocking and condescending tone, just makes it all the sweeter that he looks so silly after the fact now.

Law is a very smart guy, and a master of spin (i.e. nothing he says is ever completely untrue, just rarely fully true).....but when it comes to the Jays, that spin is almost entirely negative, no matter what the issue. It's a kneejerk reaction for him.

He can't seem to resist taking potshots at the Jays whenever available, like when for some strange reason out of nowhere he publicly called out John Farell on twitter in the first month of his managerial career.

92-93 - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#242451) #

And it would have been if he ever actually addressed the issue at hand. He chose not to for a reason.

sam - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#242452) #

By the way Corey Patterson is an interesting person to bring up. I remember talking to two scouts who both saw Corey Patterson as an amateur and as a minor leaguer and both swore up and down that he was going to be a generational player.

Those LH/Speed/top-of-the-order types seem to have a higher bust rate. I'm probably wrong, but maybe it's just the optics of it all.

Ryan Day - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#242453) #

Patterson looks like a guy who was pushed too far, too fast. He had a fantastic pro debut as a 19-year-old in A-Ball. Then a decent season at AA - very good for a 20-year-old, but not really great in and of itself. Then the next year, he was starting in Wrigley. Incredibly talented player, but I don't think he ever really learned how to play baseball.

China fan - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#242454) #

Imagine that -- taking a top prospect and throwing him into the major leagues at age 21. Luckily a smart organization like the Jays would never do such a thing.

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#242455) #

There simply aren't a lot of players who strike out a ton in the minors with low averages who become successful in the majors. Even Travis Snider managed to hit .300 in the minors, and he may never get anywhere near it in the majors.

The problem with that is that most 20 year olds are in A-ball, and the fact that they don't have as bad contact issues there in no way means that they're showing better contact skills than Gose is this year.

Snider's another interesting 20yr-old-at-AA comparison, actually:

T.Snider (20): 423pa, 12.3bb%, 27.4k%, .262avg, .333babip, .199iso, 0.01sb/g, 50.0sb%, .366woba

A.Gose (20): 543pa, 10.9bb%, 26.0k%, .255avg, .330babip, .158iso, 0.50sb/g, 82.1sb%, .361woba

And Travis was named #6 prospect in the world after that season, and he had nowhere near Gose's defensive value.

hypobole - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#242456) #

Why MUST Gose hit for a better average? What exactly is wrong with having a gold glove caliber CF who can steal 50+ bases and has a .250/.350/.400 line?

Spifficus - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#242457) #

Annd, just got done. The "show us the man in white" was an off-hand comments in part of the greater theme of "Criticize the article on its merits, not because the author is female." It's not like he was putting the burden of proof on the fans; he was continuously using "so called" and "supposed" when talking about the Man In White and the sign-stealing rumor. The takeaway from that was "don't be a bigot. Contribute to the discussion and provide content to support counter-arguments."

hypobole - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#242459) #

Re: bringing 21 year olds up to the majors.

This kid could have amounted to something if he hadn't been brought up as a 19 yr old. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kalinal01.shtml

sam - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#242460) #

Re: Hypobole, I like that line, but I don't see Gose replicating that line at the ML level. Those SO will increase exponentially once he starts facing ML pitching and his OBP will fall with it.

I had an MILB subscription for the first two months of the season. I'd often watch an MILB game and then watch the Jays game. It was night and day the level of pitching. Velocity, location, and movement were incredibly different.

hypobole - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#242462) #

sam, as you now pointed out, the critical aspect of Gose's development is his OBP. He doesn't have to hit better to become a useful MLB'er. It will be his on base percentage that will be the key determinate for future success or failure.

uglyone - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#242463) #

As far as I can tell, AA seems to be the first ML level where K-rates actually start being comparable to MLB K-rates, probably due to the level of pitching prospect typical in AA. K-rates from A+ and A don't seem to carry through so well, though.

Snider's MLB K-rate of 26.9 is actually lower than his AA K-rate of 27.4. Lind's MLB K-rate of 19.5 is lower than his AA K-Rate of 23.0. Gose's K-rate in AA is about the same as it was in A+.

I'm not sure we should expect an exponential increase in K-rates from AA to MLB, especially in a prospect as young as Gose.

smcs - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#242465) #

Well, the Bautista contract was laughable in February. It was just so...unnecessary. Why would they go 5 years for someone with such a small track record of success. I thought it would have been closer to 3, but 5 just seemed excessive. If AA says Bautista is performing the exact way that the Jays expected him to, he is lying. As it stands, Buatista is being massively underpaid, and the contact extension being done in February looks like a great deal, but the truth is that the Jays carried a lot more risk than they seemingly needed to. Imagine if the Aaron Hill contract was guaranteed for the next two years. It would be an albatross. Bautista is getting $5MM more than Hill per season.

Besides, Keith Law doesn't hate the Jays. In the last little while, he has included Drew Hutchinson in his top 50, given a favorable opinion towards Colby Rasmus, gone out of his way time and again to push Bautista for MVP, said that Tony LaCava (someone he worked with in Toronto) would be fantastic as GM of the Cubs, described Henderson Alvarez as having "top of the rotation stuff," Nicolino might be a top 100 prospect and speaks of Dustin McGowan in hushed tones. The only negative thing he could be accused of saying is that Noah Syndergaard isn't a top 100 prospect and that Anthony Gose isn't as good as Jake Marisnick. The horrors.

Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#242466) #

The Jays went 5 years on Bautista because that is what he wanted, and he held the cards. Unlike Hill and Lind, he was a year from free agency, and the prospect of a player who had a reasonable chance to be the best player in baseball being freely available to the Yankees and Red Sox did not make sense to AA. He was right.

DaveB - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#242467) #

I see Gose as an evolving power hitter who may never hit for a high BA and will never have to.

Devon White's 20yo season (A-AA): 556 PA, .253 13HR .326 OBP .743 OPS, 36-124 BB-K, 36-12 SB-CS. Those numbers-ratios are representative of his entire minor league career (2676 PA) and translated almost exactly to his MLB avg. season: .263 17HR .319 OBP, .739 OPS 45-127 BB-K 29-8 SB-CS.

Gose's 20yo season (AA): 537 PA, .258, 14HR .353 OBP, .770OPS, 58-139 BB-K, 63-15 SB-CS. He's improved each year, and one more full season in the minors will give him about 2300 PA, close to what Devo had before his great rookie season. They are similar athletes with similar performance at the same age. Gose is much more polished in the OF than White was at the same age and has a stronger arm. He's much more aggressive on the bases. The wild card is power, not BA. He's a strong kid who's going to get stronger, whose plate discipline is improving against better pitching. Of course he could bust but the ceiling is Devo White-plus: GG defense, 50 SB, .275 BA, .340 OBP, 30 HR.

Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#242468) #

Devon White is a very instructive comp for Gose. He struck out more than once per game in the Midwest League at age 20 (he got into just a few games in the Eastern League at the end of the year). He walked much less than Gose and had about equivalent power. Gose is obviously considerably ahead of where Devon White was. Eric Davis also struck out a lot in the minor leagues (and succeeded to a significant degree despite striking out a lot in the major leagues).

bball12 - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#242469) #

Dear AA - WTF - have some mercy on the Mastro dude.

Take him off the 40 man and let the poor SOB get scooped up by someone else.

At this point - its just cruel.

Even to someone who may not be a Blue Jays fan - it appears as if the next step for Mastro is water boarding. LOL.

Lylemcr - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#242470) #

I will take Devon White on my roster any day.

R Billie - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#242471) #

I think the question on Gose is whether he'll just be a very good player for CF (decent but not great hitting as in Devon White) or whether he can take the next step and be a true all around player and perennial All-Star candidate as Ellsbury did this year. I think the former is much more likely at this point as the hit tool more than anything else tends to be based on natural tendancies and usually does not improve with age/experience. Gose has never been close to hitting .300 in his history and has always struck out a lot. His average remains above .250 thanks to his high BABIP which I'm sure is aided by his great speed.

If he were a .300 hitter, he'd be an A prospect with his all around game. More likely he's probably something more (offensively at least) than Devon White and something less than Curtis Granderson. Anything can happen in the next two or three years but in general, .250 hitters with high strikeouts do not go on to become .290+ hitters. Age and experience usually add to the power/patience tools while the hit and speed tools regress as age advances.

85bluejay - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#242472) #

One of the great benefits about having Rasmus, is that there is no need to rush Gose - follow the Tampa path, let him force his way into the Show ( in about 2 yrs)

R Billie - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#242473) #

It's interesting that neither Gose nor D'Arnaud got the call to AAA while Hech did. Could this indicate they are not locks to go to Vegas in the spring? AA said they were promoting guys now to give them a taste of where they would be playing next year.

Of course that doesn't necessarily mean much in the case of Gose/D'Arnaud as perhaps they want to give NH the best shot possible at a championship. Why the promotion of Hech then? He's not much older than those guys and certainly not much more advanced. Perhaps they just think the increase in offence in Vegas will put Hech in the right frame of mind. Or make him more marketable in the off-season.

NDG - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#242474) #

Gotta say, hearing the Devo comparisons have me a little giddy. If Gose can be Devo II, well, there are multiple WS victors who will say that is one very nice outcome.

rubewaddell - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#242475) #

Interesting, from Kevin Gray's twitter just now: Had a long chat with Anthony Gose, along with @Dave_Gershman, in the dugout. Gose says he will consider pitching in a couple years If he's not hitting and doesn't get called up as a member of the 40-man. "If I'm not in the big leagues by then, it's not meant to be."

China fan - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#242476) #

Here's Anthopoulos on why he decided to bring back DeWayne Wise: "Dewayne knows his role, he's a great team guy, he's got experience and it's also a way to reward him, too, for everything he's done...."

Everybody assumed that it was Gaston who irrationally loved to reward the veterans. Maybe it was Anthopoulos all along.

Of course, with a relatively young lineup like the Jays currently have, there is perhaps some logic in having a veteran around. Anthopoulos also suggested that the young players could benefit from "a conversation here or there" with Wise. Maybe he's supposed to be a calming influence on players like Lawrie, Rasmus, Loewen, Cooper, and whomever else might be around in September. Not sure if I totally buy it, but sure, why not.

smcs - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#242477) #

That super-biased Keith Law just tweeted: "Minor league MVPs don't always go to future stars ... but this one did. RT @ShiDavidi: Travis d'Arnaud named Eastern League MVP."

Ugh. Why does he hate the Jays so much?

Mark - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#242478) #

Devon White was one of the best defensive center fielders I have ever seen. His dWAR in 1992 was 3.1 and it was close to 2 multiple years not to mention winning 7 gold gloves (taken with a grain of salt, yes)

I really hope Gose is a star, but I think we are setting him up to fail by expecting Devo like defense.

Flex - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#242479) #

Cecil Fielder was in AA (Knoxville) at 20 for the second half of the season. In 262 PA he hit .254/.317/.436..

Not the ideal Gose comparison I suppose.

TamRa - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#242482) #

It's interesting that neither Gose nor D'Arnaud got the call to AAA while Hech did. Could this indicate they are not locks to go to Vegas in the spring?

I expect Gose to return to AA for a couple of months at least - I'd be stunned if d'Arnaud wasn't in Vegas.

Eric Davis also...

Whoa now! there's a comp i hadn't thought of. Looking it up though...i can't see it in any other stat catagory so...dang. it was an exciting thought for a second.

TamRa - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#242483) #

For example, I'm not entirely convinced any of those position players at Double-A will amount to much at the ML level. They all come with serious question marks. I don't think Moises Sierra will hit enough at the ML level to warrant a corner outfield position. Anthony Gose really needs to hit for better average and lefties if he wants to play everyday. Mike McDade has to start walking more and probably has to develop some more power to warrant everyday at-bats, and Travis d'Arnaud despite putting up the best numbers is probably most against it considering the difficulty and demand managers have of catchers at ML level.

Sierra - yeah, he's a guy who needs a distinctive step up to the next gear to go from being "toolsy guy who might be something to "legit"

McDade - all along he's had to prove he was in the discussion - he was kind of winning that argument in the first half bt since the break he's been quite bad. Now he's back to the margins.

Gose - to cite again the Patterson/Pie comparison, YES he could blow up good and be a crushing disappointment. But he could also be an all-star. i think it's perfectly legitimate to say "don't count your chickens" but there definitely ARE chickens about.

d'Arnaud - I don't know how anyone can be worried about d'Arnaud beyond the reality that you have a level of caution about ANY prospect. Beyond the brief back issue last year, there's pretty much not a thing that should make one say "I'm a little worried about this guy"

Gerry - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#242484) #

New Hampshire are heading for the playoffs, Las Vegas are not. Hech played in the AA playoffs last season so he has had some post-season experience, I don't know if d'Arnaud has any but certainly not last year. And that is why d'Arnaud is still in AA.

Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#242486) #

TamRa, at age 20, Eric Davis was in the Midwest League and went .276/.354/.449 (hitting 15 homers) and went 53-12 stealing bases, while striking out 103 times in 111 games When you adjust for league, that isn't much different from what Gose did this year.

hypobole - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#242487) #

That super-biased Keith Law just tweeted: "Minor league MVPs don't always go to future stars ... but this one did. RT @ShiDavidi: Travis d'Arnaud named Eastern League MVP."

Let's lock this one up in the "quotes to forget" file when making disparaging remarks about the KLaw.

dan gordon - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#242489) #

I think Gose is progressing very nicely. He moved up a level this year, at a very young age, and still increased his OPS by 35 points. Plus, he made huge strides in his basestealing success rate. I expect he'll spend the year in AA next season, and if he continues to improve at a similar pace, he should OPS over .800. He does need to learn to hit lefties better. He seems to have much less of an idea what to swing at vs lefties, as his BB rate against righties was almost double his walk rate vs lefties. I would think that is something which should improve with experience. I think he's in the Jays top 5 prospects.

Lugnut Fan - Friday, August 26 2011 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#242492) #

I saw both Patterson and Pie play in Lansing during their time. As far as why Patterson fizzled out, I think it is a combination of a couple of things. 1) The Cubs pushed him too hard, too fast and 2) They had different expectations of him in the minors than they did in the majors. In the minors, they had Patterson batting third quite a bit and all;owed him to show his power. When the Cubs called him up, they wanted him to be a top of the order hitter that was to hit the ball on the ground and bunt and use his speed. They didn't develop him that way and I think that had / has a lot to do with why Patterson has had a disappointing career.

As far as Pie, I don't know what happened there. I haven't quite seen another prospect like that come through Lansing. There was nothing that kid couldn't do in Lansing or any other stop in the Cubs organization. I think his flame out is far more puzzling and sad that Corey's.

TheBunk - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#242493) #

Here's the better take on the Bautista deal from the better baseball analyst http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jose-bautista-cashes-in/

The Keith Law take is par for the course, it's his shtick. He's just a more informed Bob McCown.

TamRa - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 04:33 AM EDT (#242494) #

I think Mastroianni didn't look very good at all in the outfield in the one game he played for the Jays. Add that to the poor year he's had with the bat, and I'm not surprised they picked up somebody who can at least give them some good defense in CF. Mastroianni isn't really somebody I consider a prospect any more. He's 26 years old, and hit .254/.342/.355/.697 in AA ball. An outfielder who hits like that in AA at age 26 is highly unlikely to become a significant big league ball player.

fr what it's worth, one regular observer of the F-cats who tweets alot had some very bad thigs to say about mastro. he said the young man was far more arrogant about his abilities than his talent warranted and that the classic Mastro play was diving for a ball that could be fielded without diving ("The Jim Edmunds Syndrome"?) and when he actually caught it he got lots of praise, but he just as often missed it.

All that's just one's fan's impression of course, but he did look prophetic when Mastro did just such a dive during the game he played.

bball12 - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#242496) #

Tamra - I agree with you. I think AA should consult with that one NH fan and then dump Mastro.
Who better to listen to than a fan in the stands LOL

On a more meaningful note - Lawrie has to be the most exciting young player in baseball right now.
He reminds me of a mini Jeff Bagwell at the plate.
If I had to pick one player in all of baseball that will be a superstar - it would be Lawrie.

Just incredible talent and the most exciting young player I have seen in a long long time.

hypobole - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#242498) #

Tamra - I agree with you. I think AA should consult with that one NH fan and then dump Mastro.
Who better to listen to than a fan in the stands LOL

bball12 - You've hit the nail on the head. Why should the word of some fan who's seen him play a few times carry any credence? We know the Jays are making a mistake bringing in Wise instead of Mastro because we've seen him play far less than that uninformed tweeter.

ayjackson - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#242499) #

I don't see where Tamra mentioned anthopolous taking advice froms fans. I do see where AA's actions were not inconsistent with a scouting report certain Twits received from a trusted Fishercat season ticket holder.

ayjackson - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#242500) #

I should've refreshed.

bball12 - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#242502) #

ay - seriously - I don't lend much credence to Twits and Tweets from some anonymous person in the stands.
I much prefer to make observations in person and judge for myself and I find that comment to be completely inconsistent with what I have seen over the last several years - so me and the anonymous Tweeter are even. LOL

Either way - it is a very very minor roster move with no real relevance to this team's success - and I am sorry but I think it is a weird move. Just my opinion.
I know you dont agree. Point taken.

John Northey - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#242512) #

TheBunk: good article there, recall it from this past winter once I saw it. Basically FanGraphs said that the Jays need to get 12 WAR out of Bautista for the deal to be worth it. That is 12 WAR over 5 years.

This year, so far, Bautista is at 7.8 WAR (fangraphs) worth $34.9 million. That is almost 1 full WAR over last year with a month to go! His batting has produced more runs, his baserunning has as well, and his fielding has cost less (7.1 negative last year, 2 this year). That is just scary. Last year was so far over his head no one thought he could repeat it. Instead he bettered it. Baseball Reference agrees, having him at 7.9 WAR vs 5.4 last year (they had his defense last year as even worse, and this year better, from costing the Jays 1 1/2 wins to adding 0.7 wins this year).

Basically, all Bautista has to do is play like he did in 2009 (before the 50 HR season) for the next 4 years and he'll be a bargain. Wow.

92-93 - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#242518) #

Bautista was never going anywhere for 2011 and unfortunately the Blue Jays don't get to bank all the surplus value he's providing this year.

ayjackson - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#242521) #

Bball, to be clear, are you saying you've seen Mastroianni play on multiple occasions over the past couple of years and that his CF defense is good?

ayjackson - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#242522) #

Bball, to be clear, are you saying you've seen Mastroianni play on multiple occasions over the past couple of years and that his CF defense is good?

ayjackson - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#242523) #

...The perils of mobile commenting.

For the record, I had assumed that fishercatfan on twitter is the same person as his namesake around here, which would lend considerable credence to his opinions. I'm not sure that assumption is correct, though.

uglyone - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#242524) #

Just one last note on Gose, and how much tougher AA is than A ball, and how much of a difference and in what ways it can impact the stats, let's look at what young phenom Bryce Harper has done this year as an 18 year old:

A: 305pa, 14.4bb%, 20.0k%, .318avg, .372babip, .236iso, 0.26sb/g, 79.2sb%, .436woba
AA: 147pa, 10.2bb%, 17.7k%, .256avg, .294babip, .140iso, 0.19sb/g, 77.8%, .332woba

Now the difference between those two lines for Harper is much bigger than the difference between the lines Gose and Marisnick are putting up at those two levels this year.

Stating the obvious.....AA is much harder than A.

TamRa - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#242528) #

Tamra - I agree with you. I think AA should consult with that one NH fan and then dump Mastro.
Who better to listen to than a fan in the stands LOL

I don't mean to over-react here but, what the heck are you on about? you don't seriously think i was trying to imply this anonymous report carried any weight at all, other than to give us some POSSIBLE insight into a situation most of us have no first hand obseravtion about do you?

I'm not sure why any snark is warranted here, i didn't imply anything like what you said.

You've hit the nail on the head. Why should the word of some fan who's seen him play a few times carry any credence? We know the Jays are making a mistake bringing in Wise instead of Mastro because we've seen him play far less than that uninformed tweeter.

Carry any credence with who? We pay attention to what local residents who watch these teams play say about the players all the time on this board. Sure this guy is, as far as I know, not a longtime trusted member here and could be the sort of malcontent that gripes about everyone for all i know. Which is what the expression "for what it's worth" means - give it whatever credence you think it's worth.

Or maybe you are being sarcastic too because your last sentence doesn't seem to make sense if you're not.

Heck i don't know.

I think I've been clear in my (uninformed long-distance) point of view:

Loewen > Wise = Mastro

I don't, however, think it's unreasonable to suspect that AA doesn't see Mastro as a long term asset to the jays and thus considers it an irrelevancy that Mastro doesn't "get a chance" because he chose to bring in a veteran for the intangible benefits he thinks a veteran brings to the situation. And i don't think it's unreasonable to suspect that statistically speaking, neither are going to bring any real bump to the Jays' output.

That analysis by itself is enough to explain the choice, if Mastro happens to be a guy with problems that might contribute to his analysis but whatever the factors, the conclusion seems pretty obvious.

My concern here is puzzling out what this means for Loewen.

bball12 - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#242529) #

ayjackson,

Yes - I have seen many of the players - including Mastro -for a long time now - as in about 6 years.
A few I have seen play over 10 years ago.

If you accept approximations - I would say that in that time I have seen Mastro play about 75 times.
He has done a very nice job of transitioning from the infield to the outfield.
He is very aggressive in the OF - but doesnt make many errors. Plays very hard all the time.
He has a playable arm (has a good number of assists over the years) - many of which I attribute to his infield experience as he gets to the ball quickly and releases it quickly.
His routes are average.
He seems to get along with his teammates very well.

As for the other nonsense - he was a fan favorite in both Auburn and New Hampshire. Especially with the kids.
He keeps a pretty low profile - and may be one of the hardest workers on the team.

As I said before - for someone to describe him the way your Tweeter friend did is unfortunate - but the world is full of that.
I've seen alot worse said about him and many of our other players - most if not all absolutely false.

Nowadays - you can throw stuff like that out there - and it takes on a life of its own.
Thats life - but I never mind defending young players that deserve it - and I can tell you that most every one of the players we see now at the High A - AA and AAA level are good guys and represent the organization well.

bball12 - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#242530) #

Tamra

Sorry if you felt I was being snide or rude.
I have no desire to argue over anything, no less some unknown minor leaguer.
I also like to think that I am not a rude person.

I do - however - express myself strongly at times - I guess if I want to contribute here I have to soften my observations a bit.

As I said before - i really like this site. I think it is one of the better Toronto sites out there with great analysis and interesting perspectives (and some fun too)
I hope to continue to enjoy - maybe I should just read and not post.

China fan - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#242531) #

bball12, if you have seen Mastroianni and similar prospects on 75 occasions in the past few years, please keep posting. It means that you've seen the Jays prospects more frequently than the vast majority of the people posting on this site (including me). Your insights are valuable. And don't worry about "softening" your contributions -- be candid and frank, and let the chips fall where they may. I think most people appreciate a candid opinion, bluntly expressed, as long as it's based on hard facts or hard observation.

TamRa - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#242534) #

Sorry if you felt I was being snide or rude. . . .

I do - however - express myself strongly at times - I guess if I want to contribute here I have to soften my observations a bit.

It' wasn't so much the tone, i'm sure I set myself up for snark often enough - it's that i was mystified that anyone could think i was remotely implying this fan's comments influence AA's decision. it was the whole non sequiter-ness of it that irked me some.

I have no beef with strongly held views, I just didn't see how that remarked followed at all and that meade it FEEL (i.e., not on logic but on emotion) more personal than it was likely intended.

Looking back over the sequence, i still can't figure out where that thought came from.

I would recomend strongly AGAINST getting the impression you need to soften anything up - certainly that's not what i was asking for nor is it a standard I hold myself to.

As I said before - i really like this site. I think it is one of the better Toronto sites out there with great analysis and interesting perspectives (and some fun too)
I hope to continue to enjoy - maybe I should just read and not post.

I disagree. completely. It was a very minor movement, and i as much as admited in the post I was probably making too much of it, but I went ahead and commented on it because when i feel like my point has been misstated, however inadvertantly, i don't like to let it stand without correction.

TamRa - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#242535) #

As I said before - for someone to describe him the way your Tweeter friend did is unfortunate - but the world is full of that.
I've seen alot worse said about him and many of our other players - most if not all absolutely false.

Your testimony is good enough for me.

bball12 - Saturday, August 27 2011 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#242537) #

Thanks China and Tamra

I will say this - Blue Jays fans have alot to look forward to.
I know that you guys follow all of this very very closely - so I guess it is redundant - but in my opinion - we have a heck of a stable of young prospects.

Alot to be genuinely excited about if you are a Blue Jays fans. Just alot of really great looking prospects - at just about every position.

hypobole - Sunday, August 28 2011 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#242540) #

Or maybe you are being sarcastic too because your last sentence doesn't seem to make sense if you're not.

Yes Tamra I was attempting, though overly successfully, to be sarcastic.

Bball12 - You're post I replied to sounded like the typical prospect fan-boy who has opinions despite not actually watching the prospect play. Also, I may only be speaking for myself, but I place a bit more value in comments not followed by "LOL"

uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#242556) #

I don't think there's any reason to think that Loewen > Wise.

Wise is up here because at least he can play topnotch CF defense.

Wise is a very good to excellent defensive CF, Loewen is a guy who's had problems defensively in the corners. Moreover Wise has been better offensively in AAA this year (and for the last few years) anyways.

bpoz - Sunday, August 28 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#242557) #

A lot covered here about Gose. I just looked at his stats ...good BB, SB rate & power numbers and the defensive award should mean that he is decent or good defensively (Gold Glove not always awarded to the best defensive guy).

Interesting about C Patterson. With the Jays he had trouble with, the OF wall, bumping team mates and maybe his route to the ball. The above contributes to a players defensive evaluation. Willie Wilson stole a lot of hits, so he was defensively great.
I would appreciate the eye witnesses opinion on defense of our OF prospects in the various leagues. Mainly routes to the ball. Thames & maybe Loewen may be bad (that is a strong word, but I don't want to be vague & it is only my opinion which of course may be wrong). Because we have a whole lot of OF prospects, some defensive barrier(?) may be considered as a factor to their not being a part of a championship team.

bball12 - Sunday, August 28 2011 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#242563) #

bpoz,

I would be more than glad to share my observations of these players - as I have seen them for several years now.
And yes - in person.

On the other hand - I am not so sure I want to subject myself to inane and childish comments and name calling from this hypobole dude.

Net net - probably not worth it from my perspective.

Here is a logical compromise - If you have a specific question - I will give you my opinion.
Hopefully that will minimize the abuse I am certain to receive. LOL

hypobole - Sunday, August 28 2011 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#242567) #

bball12 - I thought that one post of yours was uncalled for.

You thought my post was uncalled for.

In reading your other posts, you obviously have plenty to contribute.

Let's start anew. I''m actually not much into name calling.

LOL

bball12 - Sunday, August 28 2011 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#242585) #

hypo - that's a deal!

Let me add that Gose is really something else in the outfield.

I am sure that he still has things to learn given his age - but he is the most talented defensive player I have ever seen at that age.

1st step - pure speed - athleticism - instinct and a cannon for an arm.

Defensively - I think he could step in and be considered one of the elite CF's in baseball - today.

bpoz - Monday, August 29 2011 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#242610) #

Thanks bball12.

ayjackson - Monday, August 29 2011 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#242612) #

It's a festivus miracle. Lol.

You're input is appreciated bball. And thanks to hypobole for defending my honour.

vw_fan17 - Monday, August 29 2011 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#242644) #

Defensively - I think he could step in and be considered one of the elite CF's in baseball - today.

Wow.. After seeing Bourjos (sp?) in the series against LAA, man, would I love some guy who can chase down hit after hit.. Even if he "only" hits 700 or 725 (OPS). IMHO, the mental boost to our pitchers, knowing that we have a guy routinely doing the "impossible" out there would be huge...

Of course, a guy like Granderson in CF would be ok too :-)

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