What are the Blue Jays up to?
Mike Lavery at TheBaseballPage.com has an interesting take on what's up in The Mind of Anthopolous and even previews the 2012 Jay lineup. Give it a read and weigh in ... whatchathink, Bauxites?
It would have been a lot better if he could have kept his stats straight.
A couple of errors in that article...
-Lawrie is NOT going back to 2B from all indications.
-Johnson is listed as "arbitration eligible" but he is a free agent after this season
Nothing earth shattering or new really. Saying the Jays should go after one of Pujols/Fielder/CC Sabathia/Reyes has been talked about here. If the Jays potential budget of $140 is for real then they could sign 2 or 3 of them easily. Imagine that - Sabathia in the rotation (he is entering his age 31 season, on his 6th straight 130+ ERA+ season, 5th straight 200+ IP season), Fielder at 1B, Reyes at SS/2B with Escobar at the other. Phew. Although I'd hesitate on Reyes as his 143 OPS+ this year is way out of line with his career 101 pre-2011 over 4254 PA.
-Lawrie is NOT going back to 2B from all indications.
-Johnson is listed as "arbitration eligible" but he is a free agent after this season
Nothing earth shattering or new really. Saying the Jays should go after one of Pujols/Fielder/CC Sabathia/Reyes has been talked about here. If the Jays potential budget of $140 is for real then they could sign 2 or 3 of them easily. Imagine that - Sabathia in the rotation (he is entering his age 31 season, on his 6th straight 130+ ERA+ season, 5th straight 200+ IP season), Fielder at 1B, Reyes at SS/2B with Escobar at the other. Phew. Although I'd hesitate on Reyes as his 143 OPS+ this year is way out of line with his career 101 pre-2011 over 4254 PA.
Can't sign Sabathia. He's already overweight and he's 31, so he may not be good in 2017.
Sabathia's my dream, but a big part of that is because of the affect on the Yankees. (Although I suspect if they lose him they then go out and make sure that they get Darvish)
Credibility vanishes with the "Lawrie can play 2B or 3B" line. Clearly he has no more than a passing knowledge of the Jays.
Piling on, YEscobar was not the first "signature" AA move, Morrow was. And KJohnson is not the same type of thing at all.
Piling on, YEscobar was not the first "signature" AA move, Morrow was. And KJohnson is not the same type of thing at all.
There is no way the Jays will land CC. He seems to like NY and will stay there. I advocated going after him the last time he was a FA but this time I wouldn't risk it, even if there was a chance.
Reyes will cause some serious buyer's remorse.
Fielder I would be in favor if it's a short, high $ deal. Given the limited market, he may take one although I'm guessing he'll stay with the Brewers if it's only 4/100 or so.
Reyes will cause some serious buyer's remorse.
Fielder I would be in favor if it's a short, high $ deal. Given the limited market, he may take one although I'm guessing he'll stay with the Brewers if it's only 4/100 or so.
Any player might not be good in 2017.
It'll be interesting to see how AA manages things going forward. Up to this point he's been pretty tight with handing out long term contracts and/or big money, Bautista being the exception (which is looking like a bargain), instead working to trade for players in their pre-FA years. With the team positioned to move forward next year, would he make a big FA splash?
It'll be interesting to see how AA manages things going forward. Up to this point he's been pretty tight with handing out long term contracts and/or big money, Bautista being the exception (which is looking like a bargain), instead working to trade for players in their pre-FA years. With the team positioned to move forward next year, would he make a big FA splash?
Credibility vanishes with the "Lawrie can play 2B or 3B" line
I was trying an open mind, but when I got to that,.....I guess any fan can be a blogger
If it turns out that Prince/Pujols isn't on AA's radar this offseason, I think it might be reasonable for him to go after someone like Yonder Alonso of the Reds. They need pitching big-time, and Alonso's bat doesn't have anywhere to play on a regular basis since he's blocked by Votto.
He lost me when he talked about adding CC to the front of a great young rotation of Romero, Morrow and Drabek.
Kyle Drabek will be lucky to be out of AAA next year given his struggles and the good performances of others.
It would seem to me that AA will spend the offseason trying to retool the bullpen. There are only two guys there (Litsch, Jansen) worth bringing back - and no closer in sight.
If they were to add Fielder and CC, it would be like they added three players - financially, performance wise and physically. Are they not the two fattest players in baseball?
Francisco and Perez are both worth bringing back as bullpen help.
Ill informed for reasons previously mentioned (I too was taken out of it by the idea Lawrie could could play 2B)
Something else - No rational way one should predict Johnson leading off and Escobar banished to 8th n the line-up
Something else - No rational way one should predict Johnson leading off and Escobar banished to 8th n the line-up
Yonder Alonso is interesting. The Reds signed a ML contract with him in 2008 that goes through 2012. Thus this year used his last option year and he has to stay up in 2012. His AAA figures are 296/364/478 in the International League (ie: not video game stats). They seem to be screwing around with him though as he has just 5 games started in the month he has been up. He plays 1B and LF, hits left handed, ML stats are 328/391/517 so far over 64 sporadic PA over 2 seasons.
With Votto at first base (signed through 2013) you'd think they'd be playing Alonso in LF every day but they aren't. Instead Dave Sappelt is (38 OPS+ this season, hit 316/374/464 in AAA after 361/416/548 in AA, is a rookie). Very odd. Must be a nightmare on defense in LF or has pissed off Dusty Baker.
So if you sent Snider and prospects (or Thames and prospects) you might be able to do something. SS is weak in the majors for them, although Zack Cozart hit 275/327/435 in AAA and has a 117 OPS+ so far in the majors (38 PA). Their rotation is Johnny Cueto and a batch of sub-100 ERA+ guys. Might be a match here. Btw, I wouldn't touch Cueto even if he was available as his K/9 figure is low and his H/9 is crazy low this year - 2.3 hits per 9 less than he ever had before thus could be luck based.
With Votto at first base (signed through 2013) you'd think they'd be playing Alonso in LF every day but they aren't. Instead Dave Sappelt is (38 OPS+ this season, hit 316/374/464 in AAA after 361/416/548 in AA, is a rookie). Very odd. Must be a nightmare on defense in LF or has pissed off Dusty Baker.
So if you sent Snider and prospects (or Thames and prospects) you might be able to do something. SS is weak in the majors for them, although Zack Cozart hit 275/327/435 in AAA and has a 117 OPS+ so far in the majors (38 PA). Their rotation is Johnny Cueto and a batch of sub-100 ERA+ guys. Might be a match here. Btw, I wouldn't touch Cueto even if he was available as his K/9 figure is low and his H/9 is crazy low this year - 2.3 hits per 9 less than he ever had before thus could be luck based.
FYI: Gomes was traded, Heisey hasn't played in the majors since August 5th, Lewis has 7 starts in August, Sappelt though has 10 starts in August in LF with his 38 OPS+ vs Alonso's 5 starts (just 1 in the past 7 games) despite a 250(!) OPS+.
Either Sappelt is Willie Mays but stuck in LF for some reason, or Alonso fields like Cecil Fielder out there, or Baker has serious problems with Alonso and is letting it affect the team. Of course, with the Reds being 13 games out of a playoff spot it isn't like it will stop them this year.
Either Sappelt is Willie Mays but stuck in LF for some reason, or Alonso fields like Cecil Fielder out there, or Baker has serious problems with Alonso and is letting it affect the team. Of course, with the Reds being 13 games out of a playoff spot it isn't like it will stop them this year.
Just read that Alonso is now being tried out at 3B after not looking good in LF. Seeing a photo of him suggests 'Fielder-itis'. I remember Jimy Williams doing that with Cecil way back when, trying LF, 3B, even 2B (very bizarre site) since McGriff was at 1B and Mulliniks at DH and Bell in LF with Gruber at 3B (I'd have DH'ed him and Mulliniks at 3B/DH now and again vs some RHP).
The Jays have an opportunity here. Take Alonso off their hands. C'mon, you can do it this offseason AA - we know you can!
The Jays have an opportunity here. Take Alonso off their hands. C'mon, you can do it this offseason AA - we know you can!
For the four millionth time -
Hill and Johnson are only necessary for 1 year - at the most. Hech is our All Star SS for a DECADE. Escobar (and his "daily diminishing range at SS" - which I still stand by!) is our future 2nd baseman. JMac comes back as Mr. Versatility. I am willing to bet my Scotch Collection, my Butterfly Net Collection and my Tinker Toy Tank Collection on that! On second thought I don't think I'll offer up the scotch collection - there's a few bottles of 18 year old single malt that might only be truly appreciated by yours truly.
Remember we've THREE super talents who are going to get their chance SOON - Gose, Hech and d'Arnaud will ALL get a serious look most likely starting by mid to late 2012. Rasmus will be fighting Snider and Thames (soon you could add Marisnick and Knecht in there as well) for a corner spot. The one sure corner spot is Bautista.
As to contending in 2012 - only the addition of Yu and the Fat Prince could seriously see us do so. However, Yu never know, eh?
Hill and Johnson are only necessary for 1 year - at the most. Hech is our All Star SS for a DECADE. Escobar (and his "daily diminishing range at SS" - which I still stand by!) is our future 2nd baseman. JMac comes back as Mr. Versatility. I am willing to bet my Scotch Collection, my Butterfly Net Collection and my Tinker Toy Tank Collection on that! On second thought I don't think I'll offer up the scotch collection - there's a few bottles of 18 year old single malt that might only be truly appreciated by yours truly.
Remember we've THREE super talents who are going to get their chance SOON - Gose, Hech and d'Arnaud will ALL get a serious look most likely starting by mid to late 2012. Rasmus will be fighting Snider and Thames (soon you could add Marisnick and Knecht in there as well) for a corner spot. The one sure corner spot is Bautista.
As to contending in 2012 - only the addition of Yu and the Fat Prince could seriously see us do so. However, Yu never know, eh?
How about a stack of prospects for Votto? We need some more Canadians over here.
Hech is not a top prospect.
I agree, the move here is to go after Votto for a bunch of prospects. Then you offer Lind to the Giants for a pitcher.
"Francisco and Perez are both worth bringing back as bullpen help."
Villanueva shouldn't be so easily forgotten either!
Villanueva shouldn't be so easily forgotten either!
Good point. Add a second left (Mills?) then go get a closer and I think you're done. I don't think the improvements needed are as drastic as everyone thinks.
Good point. Add a second left (Mills?) then go get a closer and I think you're done. I don't think the improvements needed are as drastic as everyone thinks.
I think Joel Carreno will get a serious shot at sticking in the pen as well.
We're up to what now...6 guys that are worth bringing back?
The bullpen will also be influenced by whether Francisco and Rauch accept arbitration or not. Both are currently Type B free agents, so Anthopoulos will probably try to convert them into draft picks. Unfortunately there's a risk that Rauch could accept and Francisco could walk away -- when the Jays would prefer the reverse....
It will be interesting to see if Anthopoulos tries to negotiate a team-friendly contract with Francisco, who has actually been quite good over the past three months. But history suggests that AA will prefer to look for a draft pick. Which probably means that Francisco will leave and the Jays will be saddled with Rauch, who could then be cut after spring training for a fraction of his salary if AA finds some better relievers out there.
Paul D says "Hech is not a top prospect."
Dear Mr D
Poppycock and Hos Flickis (latin for horse feathers). By the end of the 2013 season - when the world - even including PaulD - have come to realize that Hech will be a perennial All-Star SS contender - then - and I am prepared to wait until then - then I shall expect an apology from PaulD. I should like the apology to be magnanimous and unpretentious if possible. No need for flowery verbosity.
Dear Mr D
Poppycock and Hos Flickis (latin for horse feathers). By the end of the 2013 season - when the world - even including PaulD - have come to realize that Hech will be a perennial All-Star SS contender - then - and I am prepared to wait until then - then I shall expect an apology from PaulD. I should like the apology to be magnanimous and unpretentious if possible. No need for flowery verbosity.
Votto would be nice, his OPS+ has always been 125+ and the last 3 years are 156-171-169. However, he is signed only through 2013 (2 more years) before he gets a crazy free agent contract (ala Fielder & Pujols).
So basically, do you give up a stack of prospects and some ML ready guys for him, plus plan on spending $25 per in a couple of years or do you go for a Fielder/Pujols at $25 per right now costing just a first round pick and an extra $23 mil over the next 2 years (difference between what Votto will get and $25 mil a year).
No matter what it makes sense to talk with Cincinnati though. If Votto is available at a reasonable price (ie: uses guys we won't use anyways most likely thus one of Snider/Thames, a couple of pitchers other than Romero & Morrow, Lind) then great. Otherwise see what they want for Alonso who is blocked by Votto and really isn't a third baseman or left fielder.
So basically, do you give up a stack of prospects and some ML ready guys for him, plus plan on spending $25 per in a couple of years or do you go for a Fielder/Pujols at $25 per right now costing just a first round pick and an extra $23 mil over the next 2 years (difference between what Votto will get and $25 mil a year).
No matter what it makes sense to talk with Cincinnati though. If Votto is available at a reasonable price (ie: uses guys we won't use anyways most likely thus one of Snider/Thames, a couple of pitchers other than Romero & Morrow, Lind) then great. Otherwise see what they want for Alonso who is blocked by Votto and really isn't a third baseman or left fielder.
You could argue that a guy like Drabek might be better served coming out of the Jays bullpen in low leverage situations rather than having him pitch in the PCL to try and regain his confidence. This might be a path for all top pitching prospects in AA as long as the AAA team is in LV. I think the bullpen positions can be filled quite adequately internally this way.
Signing Prince Fielder means no one pitches around Jose Bautista any more. Signing a Top closer and signing another top arm for the Bullpen means a lot fewer than 20+(?) blown saves. This should cost under $42.5 Million/year. What's not to like?
Mylegacy - if and when Hech makes the All Star team I'll apologize. It's pretty rare to make the team for defence though
Trust me Mr D - you'll be well chuffed by Hech's offense and absolutely dazzled by his defense. If I'm wrong - I'll apologize - I'd rather do that than part with my Tinker Toy Tank Collection anyway.
My dream offseason.. Votto and Hanley..
If the Jays can add those two, without taking away from the big league roster.. I think the Jays are on par with the Sox.... Or at least close...
Many will tell you Im crazy to think its possible.... But AA has made me believe anything is possible..
What do I give up for Votto: D'Arnaud, Gose, Drabek - aka That Halladay trade...
What do I give up for Hanley: I have a feeling Florida is going to want to give up the contract (given their ownership), so it might not be as painful as some might think: Hechevarria, Molina, and one of the 3 big outfielders in Lansing..
Knowing AA the trades will probably look something like this:
For Votto: Chris Woodward, Adam Loewen and a Brian Dopirak signed ball...
For Hanley: We take his contract...
If the Jays can add those two, without taking away from the big league roster.. I think the Jays are on par with the Sox.... Or at least close...
Many will tell you Im crazy to think its possible.... But AA has made me believe anything is possible..
What do I give up for Votto: D'Arnaud, Gose, Drabek - aka That Halladay trade...
What do I give up for Hanley: I have a feeling Florida is going to want to give up the contract (given their ownership), so it might not be as painful as some might think: Hechevarria, Molina, and one of the 3 big outfielders in Lansing..
Knowing AA the trades will probably look something like this:
For Votto: Chris Woodward, Adam Loewen and a Brian Dopirak signed ball...
For Hanley: We take his contract...
Then you offer Lind to the Giants for a pitcher
As the resident Giants fan, i thought I'd add my 2 cents to this suggestion. Brandon Belt is going to be the Giants' first baseman for the next 10+ years, so they wouldn't be interested in Lind. As I suggested on another thread, sometime next season, depending on how Snider, Thames and Hechavarria are progressing, I think the Jays might be able to pry one of the Giants' outstanding 5 starters from them for Hechavarria and either Thames or Snider. Bumgarner or Sanchez would be the likely candidates for the Giants to deal. The Giants could then plug the grossly overpaid Barry Zito back into the rotation to partially fill the void. Hech takes over as the Giants SS and Thames or Snider gives them an outfielder who can actually hit. Presuming the Giants do not resign Beltran. Of course, if Hech hits next year like he did in AA this year, no dice.
As the resident Giants fan, i thought I'd add my 2 cents to this
suggestion. Brandon Belt is going to be the Giants' first baseman for
the next 10+ years, so they wouldn't be interested in Lind
Good point, I'd forgotten about Belt.
Okay, you offer Lind to the Cubs, see what you can get. I'd actually be interested in Marmol, although his salary/performance isn't great. I don't know how much more than Lind it would take to get Garza.
Good point, I'd forgotten about Belt.
Okay, you offer Lind to the Cubs, see what you can get. I'd actually be interested in Marmol, although his salary/performance isn't great. I don't know how much more than Lind it would take to get Garza.
Next year, if we do get a big talent, I don't see it happening via Free-agency. Free-agents hardly ever turn out.
I agree with Ducey. If AA gets an extra 20 million to spend on Free Agency, I see him spending it on the bullpen. A good veteran closer could totally change the outlook of the bullpen and a good bullpen could really have changed the outcome of this season.
My only question is, "How much do the Jays believe in their minor league system?" I would hate to mortgage the future. (and signing a big player like Fielder is limiting what we can do in the future. We cannot afford to pay our future stars.)
Of those 4 names, Reyes is the name I do NOT want us to go after. He's having a clear outlier offensive season and his defense has been trending down the last few seasons. No interest in signing the 2011 version of Carl Crawford.
Signing both of Sabathia and Fielder would be ideal. We should have the money for it, and it would make us definite contenders. Interestingly, making it known that you want to sign both might make each of them more willing to sign here, too.
Signing both of Sabathia and Fielder would be ideal. We should have the money for it, and it would make us definite contenders. Interestingly, making it known that you want to sign both might make each of them more willing to sign here, too.
Subject to change, my current sort-of-realistic 2-step wishlist for this offseason is:
1) Sign Prince Fielder
2) Trade Lind + JPA + 1 of Snider/Thames/Cooper + 1 of our top pitching prospects for a legit frontline starter.
Roster:
SP) Romero
SP) Trade Return
SP) Morrow
SP) Cecil
SP) McGowan/Alvarez/Drabek/McGuire/Hutchison/Molina
RP) Janssen
RP) Litsch
RP) Perez
RP) Villanueva
RP) Francisco
RP) Carreno
RP) whoever
1) SS Escobar
2) CF Rasmus
3) RF Bautista
4) 1B Fielder
5) 3B Lawrie
6) LF Thames/Snider
7) DH Encarnacion
8) 2B Johnson
9) C D'Arnaud
PH) Thames/Snider/Cooper
OF) Davis
IF) McCoy
C) whoever
1) Sign Prince Fielder
2) Trade Lind + JPA + 1 of Snider/Thames/Cooper + 1 of our top pitching prospects for a legit frontline starter.
Roster:
SP) Romero
SP) Trade Return
SP) Morrow
SP) Cecil
SP) McGowan/Alvarez/Drabek/McGuire/Hutchison/Molina
RP) Janssen
RP) Litsch
RP) Perez
RP) Villanueva
RP) Francisco
RP) Carreno
RP) whoever
1) SS Escobar
2) CF Rasmus
3) RF Bautista
4) 1B Fielder
5) 3B Lawrie
6) LF Thames/Snider
7) DH Encarnacion
8) 2B Johnson
9) C D'Arnaud
PH) Thames/Snider/Cooper
OF) Davis
IF) McCoy
C) whoever
Lots of belief in the minors, just there is always risk and minor league prospects carry tons of it. I think the Jays need to look at 4 for 1 deals and the like just because you can only have 25 guys on the roster at a time and AA's draft addiction will lead to overcrowding in the not too distant future.
As to free agents rarely working out I give you Barry Bonds and Randy Johnson. Jays division you can take Roger Clemens, Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor. Of course, you could toss a few back here too.
Free agents should normally be to fill a long term hole in your team that you just can't fill otherwise (DH was that for the contending Jays...yet they tossed Cecil Fielder away for nothing...grrr). Never do it if you have quality kids ready to replace that slot. And you should only do it with very high end or low end guys (ie: get a Clemens or a closer who is down on his luck, not for a mediocre player who will get middle of the road money).
As to free agents rarely working out I give you Barry Bonds and Randy Johnson. Jays division you can take Roger Clemens, Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor. Of course, you could toss a few back here too.
Free agents should normally be to fill a long term hole in your team that you just can't fill otherwise (DH was that for the contending Jays...yet they tossed Cecil Fielder away for nothing...grrr). Never do it if you have quality kids ready to replace that slot. And you should only do it with very high end or low end guys (ie: get a Clemens or a closer who is down on his luck, not for a mediocre player who will get middle of the road money).
on the subject of importing big names - I still haven't gotten over Pat Gillick letting David Cone and Jimmy Key walk away in favor of Jack Morris and Dave Stewart. that SO worked out.
erm... Morris joined the team in December 1991, Key and Cone left in December 1992.
And Cone was himself a big name import.
And Cone was himself a big name import.
Well, with Lind's continued regression to the ordinary, despite my opinion that he can be very good if he can just be consistant, I'm all for throwing a ton ant the Reds for Votto.
I say this specifically because of the potential crowding John speaks of. Votto would hopefully be inclined to sign a nice extension, and we can afford to overwhelm the Reds with talent.
Thames or Snider or Gose and maybe Carlos Perez and Woj and Pierre...I dunno but there's enough to make a good run.
Failing that, and only after a good try, surely you can persuade them on Alonso.If you achive this you can then Flip Lind if you still have too many bodies (I'm thinking the Dodgers ought to be sick of Looney by now, the D'Backs must have a need if they signed Overbay, maybe the Indians.
I don't really care about Hanley. I don't think he fits.
As for the noise about Sabathia. He'd be opting out of 4 years and $92 million - that means you can expect to probably spend about 6/144
for his age 31-36 seasons.
Or you can spend less than that and get Darvish for his age 26-32 seasons - I'll take the latter hands down if I'm going to spend $100 mil or more either way.
I say this specifically because of the potential crowding John speaks of. Votto would hopefully be inclined to sign a nice extension, and we can afford to overwhelm the Reds with talent.
Thames or Snider or Gose and maybe Carlos Perez and Woj and Pierre...I dunno but there's enough to make a good run.
Failing that, and only after a good try, surely you can persuade them on Alonso.If you achive this you can then Flip Lind if you still have too many bodies (I'm thinking the Dodgers ought to be sick of Looney by now, the D'Backs must have a need if they signed Overbay, maybe the Indians.
I don't really care about Hanley. I don't think he fits.
As for the noise about Sabathia. He'd be opting out of 4 years and $92 million - that means you can expect to probably spend about 6/144
for his age 31-36 seasons.
Or you can spend less than that and get Darvish for his age 26-32 seasons - I'll take the latter hands down if I'm going to spend $100 mil or more either way.
erm... Morris joined the team in December 1991, Key and Cone left in December 1992.
And Cone was himself a big name import.
Yes but Cone was traded for and Morris did nothing at all for the Jays and Stewart even less. You could have just as easily extended Key before the '92 season and for less money (and with luck he'd never have pulled on pinstripes)
Ok, yeah, Morris was a league average starter in '92 and those innings would have had to come from someplace, and who can say about all the intangibalness. i really don't mind Morris being on THAT team, I just really really never like Key and Cone leaving - even if i give you Morris we sure didn't need Stewart.
So...re-sign Key and Cone, don't sign Stewart and trade Morris or Stottlemyre (and yes, I'm far afield of my original point)
And Cone was himself a big name import.
Yes but Cone was traded for and Morris did nothing at all for the Jays and Stewart even less. You could have just as easily extended Key before the '92 season and for less money (and with luck he'd never have pulled on pinstripes)
Ok, yeah, Morris was a league average starter in '92 and those innings would have had to come from someplace, and who can say about all the intangibalness. i really don't mind Morris being on THAT team, I just really really never like Key and Cone leaving - even if i give you Morris we sure didn't need Stewart.
So...re-sign Key and Cone, don't sign Stewart and trade Morris or Stottlemyre (and yes, I'm far afield of my original point)
Morris was brought in pre-1992, and did help sorta.
Tom Candiotti was allowed to leave, then Morris signed so that was a 1-1 deal really. Candiotti signed a 4 year deal with the Dodgers where he was fairly effective (111 ERA+, 116/124 in 92/93 with over 200 IP both years) at $3.7 a year. Morris signed a 2 year $5.4 per year deal (factoring in buyout of 3rd year) and had ERA+s of 102/70 with 240 IP year one and 152 ugly ones year 2. In the post-season (what he was signed for) he was 0-3 in 4 starts (left trailing 5-1 in his other start before the Jays came back to win in 11).
Even with the WS win I'd say that didn't work out as planned. Candiotti would've helped in '94/'95 and might actually have been an asset in the playoffs in '92/93.
Stewart/Key was the same thing. He signed a 4 year deal in NY for $4.2 a year. He had a 124 ERA+, while missing most of 1995 due to injuries and was low on IP/start in 1995 (5.6 IP per start for 30 starts). In 1993 he threw 236 innings with a 139 ERA+. Stewart signed a 2 year $4.275 per deal. He had a 90 ERA+ over 295 IP. In 1993 he threw just 162 innings with a 98 ERA+ but was effective in the ALCS going 2-0 in his 2 starts but 0-1 in his 2 WS starts (left with the lead in his 2nd start but Cox blew it before the Jays ended up winning). His ALCS starts were close ones thus even though Key was better over the contract length he might not have pulled off both ALCS wins (anyone can have an off day) and could've been off in that WS start. This trade I wouldn't undo necessarily as Stewart did his part to get the Jays to the WS and to win it.
Thus...
Morris - Candiotti = no question, poor move done on emotion (Morris 1991 game 7 vs Candiotti doing poorly in 1991 playoffs)
Stewart - Key = no question on regular season, some question due to Stewart being killer in ALCS and 1 for 2 in WS - Key might have done well in '92 but 1993 didn't have much margin for error.
Tom Candiotti was allowed to leave, then Morris signed so that was a 1-1 deal really. Candiotti signed a 4 year deal with the Dodgers where he was fairly effective (111 ERA+, 116/124 in 92/93 with over 200 IP both years) at $3.7 a year. Morris signed a 2 year $5.4 per year deal (factoring in buyout of 3rd year) and had ERA+s of 102/70 with 240 IP year one and 152 ugly ones year 2. In the post-season (what he was signed for) he was 0-3 in 4 starts (left trailing 5-1 in his other start before the Jays came back to win in 11).
Even with the WS win I'd say that didn't work out as planned. Candiotti would've helped in '94/'95 and might actually have been an asset in the playoffs in '92/93.
Stewart/Key was the same thing. He signed a 4 year deal in NY for $4.2 a year. He had a 124 ERA+, while missing most of 1995 due to injuries and was low on IP/start in 1995 (5.6 IP per start for 30 starts). In 1993 he threw 236 innings with a 139 ERA+. Stewart signed a 2 year $4.275 per deal. He had a 90 ERA+ over 295 IP. In 1993 he threw just 162 innings with a 98 ERA+ but was effective in the ALCS going 2-0 in his 2 starts but 0-1 in his 2 WS starts (left with the lead in his 2nd start but Cox blew it before the Jays ended up winning). His ALCS starts were close ones thus even though Key was better over the contract length he might not have pulled off both ALCS wins (anyone can have an off day) and could've been off in that WS start. This trade I wouldn't undo necessarily as Stewart did his part to get the Jays to the WS and to win it.
Thus...
Morris - Candiotti = no question, poor move done on emotion (Morris 1991 game 7 vs Candiotti doing poorly in 1991 playoffs)
Stewart - Key = no question on regular season, some question due to Stewart being killer in ALCS and 1 for 2 in WS - Key might have done well in '92 but 1993 didn't have much margin for error.
according to Tweets, apparently both Tucker Jensen and Joe Musgrove are bound for Bluefield. I wonder if Jake Anderson will get to go too?
Looks, to my uninformed eye, like they might be kind of concededing the GCL season is effectively over given the rain from Irene.
Also - d'Arnaud, Gose, and Hech are EL All-Stars (shocking i know) - I'm a bit taken aback at not seeing Alvarez in that sentence.
Looks, to my uninformed eye, like they might be kind of concededing the GCL season is effectively over given the rain from Irene.
Also - d'Arnaud, Gose, and Hech are EL All-Stars (shocking i know) - I'm a bit taken aback at not seeing Alvarez in that sentence.
MatO's suggestion that low leverage relief in Toronto might be a better idea for Drabek than more starts in Las Vegas appeals to me. It would be nice if the club turned one of the pitching prospects into an ace reliever rather than looking for one on the open market.
I would love to hear what MLB GMs (and specifically, AA) know about David Wright that the public doesn't. That 15m contract for 2012 looks quite appealing to me and I'm shocked that Wright cleared waivers.
I think there's a lot of counting of un-hatched chickens going on here. By my count just under half of the current 40-man is fungible talent.
That said, one of the things I really like about AA is that he's not scared to trade prospects - J. Chavez, T. Collins, Pastornicky, Farquhar, Magnuson, Z. Stewart. That's quite a few for 2 years on the job. Scrabble could be on the list as well, tho technically not a prospect.
That said, one of the things I really like about AA is that he's not scared to trade prospects - J. Chavez, T. Collins, Pastornicky, Farquhar, Magnuson, Z. Stewart. That's quite a few for 2 years on the job. Scrabble could be on the list as well, tho technically not a prospect.
Well, I was wrong in my prediction, the Jays have opted to keep Jeroloman and demote Mastroianni to the minors. Seems odd -- Jeroloman is not needed in the lineup, but the Jays are very thin in the outfield and the infield tonight. McCoy is playing CF tonight, but he's also the back-up SS and 2B, so let's hope there aren't any injuries during the game because the Jays would really have to scramble.
In other news, Kelly Johnson makes his Jays debut (batting 7th) and Lind has been dropped down to the 5th spot, with EE replacing him in the clean-up spot. Interesting move.
Unless McCoy AND Yunel get injured there's really nothing to worry about.
I like seeing Encarnacion and Lawrie moving up in the order, both are well deserved.
I assume Jeroloman's promotion is a signal that AA is trying to trade Jose Molina for some low-level, high-upside value.
I like seeing Encarnacion and Lawrie moving up in the order, both are well deserved.
I assume Jeroloman's promotion is a signal that AA is trying to trade Jose Molina for some low-level, high-upside value.
Well, if Yunel gets injured, McCoy has to shift to SS and the outfield becomes the defensively abysmal Teahen-Bautista-Thames. And if McCoy gets injured, we see the same terrible outfield. So it would only take one injury to wreak havoc to the outfield defence.
The idea of Lind as a cleanup hitter against a left-handed pitcher was based on the idea that having a set lineup was very, very important.
If AA is going to be targeting bullpen guys in a trade, I hope he calls Sabean about Segio Romo. You could make a case Romo is one of the ten best relievers in baseball. The Giants have enough quality pitching depth to trade him away for a much needed bat. I would flip Snider for Romo without any hesitation but I doubt that would be enough for the Giants.
Morris did nothing at all
Well, they wouldn't have made it to the 1992 playoffs without him. That's something, surely? He carried the team, pretty much by himself, through the month of August. When the rest of the rotation was either dropping like flies, or pitching like crap.
Well, they wouldn't have made it to the 1992 playoffs without him. That's something, surely? He carried the team, pretty much by himself, through the month of August. When the rest of the rotation was either dropping like flies, or pitching like crap.
92-93: that is what I'm assuming too - Molina in heavy with trade talks (type B so AA will demand a quality prospect or two for him) thus having Jeroloman up. Although I'd have had Mastro up first as an outfield backup, then only calling on Jeroloman once the deal is done or Sept 1st comes around.
Still, it is just a week until September and injuries are rare enough that if the Jays even had to put a pitcher in the outfield I'm sure they'd survive.
Still, it is just a week until September and injuries are rare enough that if the Jays even had to put a pitcher in the outfield I'm sure they'd survive.
The OF defense with Thames-McCoy-Bautista is pretty abysmal as it is. Downgrading to something like Lind-Bautista-Thames for a few innings in a meaningless game in August is more than fine.
Lind was due for a demotion, and unless he picks it up I don't see how he can stay ahead of Lawrie much longer, either.
And if Rasmus heats up he probably should move ahead of Lind too. Kelly Johnson has better career numbers than Lind, too.
Might just be that Lind is our 7th or 8th best hitter now.
And if Rasmus heats up he probably should move ahead of Lind too. Kelly Johnson has better career numbers than Lind, too.
Might just be that Lind is our 7th or 8th best hitter now.
I remember 1992 and didn't think of Morris as being _that_ dominate in August even though the media did.
Checking back...
August 1992: 6 starts, 0 complete games, 5 wins 1 loss 3.07 ERA. In those wins the Jays scored 3-15-6-4-5 runs (0 in the loss). So 2 of those were tight, the 15-11 game Morris allowed 6 runs in 5 innings (pitching to the score I guess).
Jimmy Key was weak that month, the Jays were 2-4 in his 6 starts, 6.25 ERA. Cone only had one August start (allowed 7 runs). Guzman had only 2 starts (under 5 innings each). Stottlemyre had 6 starts Jays were 4-2 3.76 ERA 2 complete games but 2 times under 4 IP and 2 7 IP games. Stieb had one start (3 IP) before his season ended. Wells had 5 starts and was 1-4 in those with a 12.58 ERA (!) which was hurt mainly by the 13 run 4 1/3 IP game where Gaston showed him who was boss I think. Doug Linton got 3 starts (10.66 ERA 1-2 record for the team).
Morris was useful that month, no question even though his stats were nothing amazing. It is more the rest of the staff that was horrid/injured/etc. Stottlemyre was pretty much as valuable with 2 complete games (probably needed desperately by then). That was a tough month. 55 more runs allowed that month than in any other that year. The only sub-500 month of the year. Yet somehow the Jays were never swept in any series that month (or that year). Go figure.
Checking back...
August 1992: 6 starts, 0 complete games, 5 wins 1 loss 3.07 ERA. In those wins the Jays scored 3-15-6-4-5 runs (0 in the loss). So 2 of those were tight, the 15-11 game Morris allowed 6 runs in 5 innings (pitching to the score I guess).
Jimmy Key was weak that month, the Jays were 2-4 in his 6 starts, 6.25 ERA. Cone only had one August start (allowed 7 runs). Guzman had only 2 starts (under 5 innings each). Stottlemyre had 6 starts Jays were 4-2 3.76 ERA 2 complete games but 2 times under 4 IP and 2 7 IP games. Stieb had one start (3 IP) before his season ended. Wells had 5 starts and was 1-4 in those with a 12.58 ERA (!) which was hurt mainly by the 13 run 4 1/3 IP game where Gaston showed him who was boss I think. Doug Linton got 3 starts (10.66 ERA 1-2 record for the team).
Morris was useful that month, no question even though his stats were nothing amazing. It is more the rest of the staff that was horrid/injured/etc. Stottlemyre was pretty much as valuable with 2 complete games (probably needed desperately by then). That was a tough month. 55 more runs allowed that month than in any other that year. The only sub-500 month of the year. Yet somehow the Jays were never swept in any series that month (or that year). Go figure.
The OF defense with Thames-McCoy-Bautista is pretty abysmal as it is.
Downgrading to something like Lind-Bautista-Thames for a few innings in a
meaningless game in August is more than fine.
More than fine is a lot further than I'd be willing to venture on that outfield defence. Grudgingly acceptable for a half game, maybe. I, too, would have kept Mastroianni. It's a good chance to give him a game or two more in the outfield and he has bench uses that Jeroloman doesn't (pinch--running, for example). He's also not hurt development-wise by having to sit on the bench for a few games.
At least no matter what else happens from now onwards, he'll always have a line in The Baseball Encyclopedia.
More than fine is a lot further than I'd be willing to venture on that outfield defence. Grudgingly acceptable for a half game, maybe. I, too, would have kept Mastroianni. It's a good chance to give him a game or two more in the outfield and he has bench uses that Jeroloman doesn't (pinch--running, for example). He's also not hurt development-wise by having to sit on the bench for a few games.
At least no matter what else happens from now onwards, he'll always have a line in The Baseball Encyclopedia.
where Gaston showed [Wells] who was boss
Nah, he was taking one for the team. Wells himself knew that and didn't really bitch about it (he was always much more upset about the Greenwell at bat the year before; that was when he fired the baseball down the line when Gaston came out to get him.) What happened in the 1992 game was Doug Linton had been shelled the day before. As a result, MacDonald, Eichhorn and Timlin had had to pitch six innings. Meaning that all Gaston really had in the pen behind Wells was Ward and Henke - the five man bullpen! - so Gaston desperately needed at least six innings from Boomer.
Which he didn't quite get, but Wells did hang in there until the fifth.
Nah, he was taking one for the team. Wells himself knew that and didn't really bitch about it (he was always much more upset about the Greenwell at bat the year before; that was when he fired the baseball down the line when Gaston came out to get him.) What happened in the 1992 game was Doug Linton had been shelled the day before. As a result, MacDonald, Eichhorn and Timlin had had to pitch six innings. Meaning that all Gaston really had in the pen behind Wells was Ward and Henke - the five man bullpen! - so Gaston desperately needed at least six innings from Boomer.
Which he didn't quite get, but Wells did hang in there until the fifth.
Now that I think about that comment, maybe I'll due a wee bit of end of day stats crunching.
Last 2 years (not that this is a definitive time frame):
1) 3B B.Lawrie (21): 66pa, 1.035ops, .443woba, 185wRC+
2) RF J.Bautista (30): 1196pa, 1.041ops, .438woba, 179wRC+
3) 2B K.Johnson (29): 1152pa, .795ops, .349woba, 111wRC+
4) CF C.Rasmus (24): 1012pa, .797ops, .344woba, 116wRC+
5) DH E.Encarnacion (28): 779pa, .786ops, .342woba, 114wRC+
6) LF E.Thames (24): 255pa, .766ops, .333woba, 109wRC+
7) SS Y.Escobar (28): 1092pa, .718ops, .324woba, 101wRC+
8) 1B A.Lind (27): 1053pa, .731ops, .315woba, 95wRC+
9) C J.Arencibia (25): 419pa, .684ops, .301woba, 87wRC+
huh.
maybe Lind IS just our 8th best hitter.
Last 2 years (not that this is a definitive time frame):
1) 3B B.Lawrie (21): 66pa, 1.035ops, .443woba, 185wRC+
2) RF J.Bautista (30): 1196pa, 1.041ops, .438woba, 179wRC+
3) 2B K.Johnson (29): 1152pa, .795ops, .349woba, 111wRC+
4) CF C.Rasmus (24): 1012pa, .797ops, .344woba, 116wRC+
5) DH E.Encarnacion (28): 779pa, .786ops, .342woba, 114wRC+
6) LF E.Thames (24): 255pa, .766ops, .333woba, 109wRC+
7) SS Y.Escobar (28): 1092pa, .718ops, .324woba, 101wRC+
8) 1B A.Lind (27): 1053pa, .731ops, .315woba, 95wRC+
9) C J.Arencibia (25): 419pa, .684ops, .301woba, 87wRC+
huh.
maybe Lind IS just our 8th best hitter.
Oddly enough, Farrell is admitting that Rasmus might need to go on the DL because he hasn't improved much in the past day. In which case, Mastroianni is just about the only player who can replace him on the roster. (Since Snider and Davis are also injured.) And I really don't think the Jays want to put Bautista into CF and Lind into LF for more than an inning or two. So, I hope Mastroianni is still in Toronto and hasn't hopped on a plane back to Vegas already. Personally I would have kept Mastroianni on the team and put Jeroloman into the press box for a game or two.
Having said all that, there's one other long-shot wild-card scenario that occurs to me: could the Jays be planning to bring up Hechavarria quite soon? In which case, McCoy could stay in CF and they'd have Hech for the infield....
It is more the rest of the staff that was horrid/injured/etc.
Well, yeah. That's the point. In August 1992, starters not named Jack Morris went 6-14, 7.49 - but the team did not go tumbling out of first place. Morris kept them afloat, a step ahead of the pack, and at the end of the month David Cone came on board.
I've always thought people were way too ready to dismiss - completely and totally dismiss - what Morris contributed to that team. They look at his ERA and assume he was... well, crap. And fair enough - he really did have 6 Cheap Wins and just 2 Tough Losses. But when you win your division on the second last day of the season, I don't see how you totally dismiss the guy who made 13 starts, pitched 94 innings, and went 9-2, 3.26 over the final two months.
His personal good fortune ran out in the post-season (he pitched two good games, and lost them both when his run support dried up.) But no way do they get there without him. No way at all.
Well, yeah. That's the point. In August 1992, starters not named Jack Morris went 6-14, 7.49 - but the team did not go tumbling out of first place. Morris kept them afloat, a step ahead of the pack, and at the end of the month David Cone came on board.
I've always thought people were way too ready to dismiss - completely and totally dismiss - what Morris contributed to that team. They look at his ERA and assume he was... well, crap. And fair enough - he really did have 6 Cheap Wins and just 2 Tough Losses. But when you win your division on the second last day of the season, I don't see how you totally dismiss the guy who made 13 starts, pitched 94 innings, and went 9-2, 3.26 over the final two months.
His personal good fortune ran out in the post-season (he pitched two good games, and lost them both when his run support dried up.) But no way do they get there without him. No way at all.
240 innings of 102 ERA+ is worth a significant amount. That is what Jack Morris delivered in 1992. It wouldn't be a disaster at all if the Jays found someone to give them that quality and volume of pitching for 2012, and paid (let's say) $7-$10 million for it.
the 15-11 game Morris allowed 6 runs in 5 innings (pitching to the score I guess).
I'd bet all the money in my pockets that that's what Morris would say - they gave him first an 8-0 lead and then a 12-3 lead - but don't believe a word! He just had a lousy day, and his offense carried him. Most of the guys who scored on him that day reached base via the walk. He actually took the mound in the third and immediately walked the bases loaded. With an 8-0 lead! Pitching to the score, my ass!
I'd bet all the money in my pockets that that's what Morris would say - they gave him first an 8-0 lead and then a 12-3 lead - but don't believe a word! He just had a lousy day, and his offense carried him. Most of the guys who scored on him that day reached base via the walk. He actually took the mound in the third and immediately walked the bases loaded. With an 8-0 lead! Pitching to the score, my ass!
Magpie - "pitching to the score, my ass."
For some reason I can't get the impression of your ass out of my mind. One wonders why you'd draw all our attention to it? 'Course, having never seen it - in the flesh - as it were - who am I to know.
I do think it's time for a pre-game scotch. My mind is clearly going on one of the little tangents it goes on from time to time. Sigh.
For some reason I can't get the impression of your ass out of my mind. One wonders why you'd draw all our attention to it? 'Course, having never seen it - in the flesh - as it were - who am I to know.
I do think it's time for a pre-game scotch. My mind is clearly going on one of the little tangents it goes on from time to time. Sigh.
Kelly Johnson has better career numbers than Lind, too.
I didn't believe that until I looked it up. Holy shit.
Anyway, even before seeing those stats, I've been off the Adam Lind bandwagon for a while. At this point he's only had one real good year, and it's clear he's not an elite hitting first baseman. Both at this site and DJF I've been advocating the Jays splurge for Fielder, or maybe even better yet try to trade for Votto in the off season. AA loves wheeling and dealing, and we have a ton of prospects now to pull it off.
I didn't believe that until I looked it up. Holy shit.
Anyway, even before seeing those stats, I've been off the Adam Lind bandwagon for a while. At this point he's only had one real good year, and it's clear he's not an elite hitting first baseman. Both at this site and DJF I've been advocating the Jays splurge for Fielder, or maybe even better yet try to trade for Votto in the off season. AA loves wheeling and dealing, and we have a ton of prospects now to pull it off.
Yes we had good, talented teams to win those WS, but there was luck as well. The Oakland & Atlanta teams were V good in 1992 & the ChiSox in 1993 were also good. Missing the 1987 playoffs was a series of bad luck, all those losses to Detroit were close. Even Pythogaras would say the Jays were unlucky, maybe.
Both at this site and DJF I've been advocating the Jays splurge for
Fielder, or maybe even better yet try to trade for Votto in the off
season. AA loves wheeling and dealing, and we have a ton of prospects
now to pull it off.
To get Votto, Cincinnati has to be prepared to deal him and, if I was Walt Jocketty I wouldn't listen to any offers that didn't knock me out of my chair. I have a good, young team in the weakest division in baseball in a city that seems excited about baseball once again. Votto is an MVP and the face of the franchise. He's one of the more untouchable players in baseball, I'd guess. Additionally, what motivation do I have to trade Votto? Both of my main competitors will possibly, and in the case of Milwaukee and Fielder, likely, lose their best player next year, whereas Cincinnati is not facing the same type of loss to free agency if they can't sign their own free agents to be. The only reason Cincy would consider trading Votto may be the presence of Alonso, but I'd accept 75 cents on the dollar for Alonso rather than trade Votto.
To get Votto, Cincinnati has to be prepared to deal him and, if I was Walt Jocketty I wouldn't listen to any offers that didn't knock me out of my chair. I have a good, young team in the weakest division in baseball in a city that seems excited about baseball once again. Votto is an MVP and the face of the franchise. He's one of the more untouchable players in baseball, I'd guess. Additionally, what motivation do I have to trade Votto? Both of my main competitors will possibly, and in the case of Milwaukee and Fielder, likely, lose their best player next year, whereas Cincinnati is not facing the same type of loss to free agency if they can't sign their own free agents to be. The only reason Cincy would consider trading Votto may be the presence of Alonso, but I'd accept 75 cents on the dollar for Alonso rather than trade Votto.
The only reason Cincy would consider trading Votto may be the presence
of Alonso, but I'd accept 75 cents on the dollar for Alonso rather than
trade Votto.
They are not doing so well this season and Votto has only 2 more years until FA. If they believe Alonso is almost as good as Votto, they have to consider trading him. But not for prospect but ready to go pitchers. But I don't see it happening.
They are not doing so well this season and Votto has only 2 more years until FA. If they believe Alonso is almost as good as Votto, they have to consider trading him. But not for prospect but ready to go pitchers. But I don't see it happening.
240 innings of 102 ERA+ is worth a significant amount. That is what
Jack Morris delivered in 1992. It wouldn't be a disaster at all if the
Jays found someone to give them that quality and volume of pitching for
2012, and paid (let's say) $7-$10 million for it.
AJ Burnett, 2008? Only 221 IP but still...
I don't see how you totally dismiss the guy who made 13 starts, pitched 94 innings, and went 9-2, 3.26 over the final two months.
Through 23 starts:
4.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 720 OOPS, 61 BB, 78 K, 7 HBP, 16 HR
Last 11
3.00, 1.06, .570, 19, 51, 3, 2
Basically, of the two years he was here he delivered on what they wanted from him for 1/3 of a season. That this 1/3 of a season HAPPENED to coincide with a rough patch for the other starters is nothing but random chance. He certainly wasn't hired to be an ace for 1/3 of the season.
For comparison, here's Brandon Morrow 2011, just so happens to be sitting on 23 starts.
4.65 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .687 OOPS, 51 BB, 159 K, 7 HBP, 12 HR
In a season most of us consider frustrating.
AJ Burnett, 2008? Only 221 IP but still...
I don't see how you totally dismiss the guy who made 13 starts, pitched 94 innings, and went 9-2, 3.26 over the final two months.
Through 23 starts:
4.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 720 OOPS, 61 BB, 78 K, 7 HBP, 16 HR
Last 11
3.00, 1.06, .570, 19, 51, 3, 2
Basically, of the two years he was here he delivered on what they wanted from him for 1/3 of a season. That this 1/3 of a season HAPPENED to coincide with a rough patch for the other starters is nothing but random chance. He certainly wasn't hired to be an ace for 1/3 of the season.
For comparison, here's Brandon Morrow 2011, just so happens to be sitting on 23 starts.
4.65 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .687 OOPS, 51 BB, 159 K, 7 HBP, 12 HR
In a season most of us consider frustrating.
Oddly enough, Farrell is admitting that Rasmus might need to go on the
DL because he hasn't improved much in the past day. In which case,
Mastroianni is just about the only player who can replace him on the
roster.
Loewen, Adam.
He has played not a few games in CF in Vegas. They couldn't use him without knowing Rasmus would go on the DL without having to risk sending him back through waivers. If Rasmus hits the DL, the 15 days is more than enough to be certain Loewen will be here past 9/1 and thus not need to return to Vegas.
Loewen, Adam.
He has played not a few games in CF in Vegas. They couldn't use him without knowing Rasmus would go on the DL without having to risk sending him back through waivers. If Rasmus hits the DL, the 15 days is more than enough to be certain Loewen will be here past 9/1 and thus not need to return to Vegas.
If AA is going to be targeting bullpen guys in a trade, I hope he calls Sabean about Segio Romo.
I mentioned this guy as a prime closer candidate a week or two ago.
I would flip Snider for Romo without any hesitation but I doubt that would be enough for the Giants.
Lets not get crazy. A guy with Snider's upside is worth FAR more than a closer.
If we sent them, say, Moises Sierra Sean Ochinko and Griffin Murphy that would be a quite solid return for a relief pitcher, even a quite good one.
I mentioned this guy as a prime closer candidate a week or two ago.
I would flip Snider for Romo without any hesitation but I doubt that would be enough for the Giants.
Lets not get crazy. A guy with Snider's upside is worth FAR more than a closer.
If we sent them, say, Moises Sierra Sean Ochinko and Griffin Murphy that would be a quite solid return for a relief pitcher, even a quite good one.
Lets not get crazy. A guy with Snider's upside is worth FAR more than a closer.
Sure Snider has upside but he's proved nothing at the major league level. If you want to trade for a good player, you're going to have to give up something of value in return.
Sure Snider has upside but he's proved nothing at the major league level. If you want to trade for a good player, you're going to have to give up something of value in return.
Speaking of Snider - I do NOT like the look of this:
(just over 30 minutes ago on Twitter)
(just over 30 minutes ago on Twitter)
I will not break. I promise you that. I will miss you all and can't say how thankful I am for your support on this journey. #keepthefaith
Could be the end of a lost season? MRI reveal something season-ending?
if so it would make it an even more unpalitable time to deal him.
To get Votto, Cincinnati has to be prepared to deal him and, if I was
Walt Jocketty I wouldn't listen to any offers that didn't knock me out
of my chair. I have a good, young team in the weakest division in
baseball in a city that seems excited about baseball once again. Votto
is an MVP and the face of the franchise. He's one of the more
untouchable players in baseball, I'd guess. Additionally, what
motivation do I have to trade Votto? Both of my main competitors will
possibly, and in the case of Milwaukee and Fielder, likely, lose their
best player next year, whereas Cincinnati is not facing the same type of
loss to free agency if they can't sign their own free agents to be. The
only reason Cincy would consider trading Votto may be the presence of
Alonso, but I'd accept 75 cents on the dollar for Alonso rather than
trade Votto.
Well sure, I never said it would be easy. And maybe it would take a knock out of your chair offer. But you never know what teams are thinking unless you ask (who would have thought the Angels would trade for Vernon Wells and be willing to take on the whole contract?) The Reds are not a huge market team, and may be be looking ahead to the huge payday Votto will be in store for a couple years down the road. I dunno. It's just that everyone is talking about Fielder and Pujols, and knowing the way AA works, he may be more interested in going the trade route.
A cheaper way is trying to identify the next Joey Votto, and trying to trade for that guy, whoever it is. But that's riskier because you're banking on potential only, rather than an established elite hitter.
Well sure, I never said it would be easy. And maybe it would take a knock out of your chair offer. But you never know what teams are thinking unless you ask (who would have thought the Angels would trade for Vernon Wells and be willing to take on the whole contract?) The Reds are not a huge market team, and may be be looking ahead to the huge payday Votto will be in store for a couple years down the road. I dunno. It's just that everyone is talking about Fielder and Pujols, and knowing the way AA works, he may be more interested in going the trade route.
A cheaper way is trying to identify the next Joey Votto, and trying to trade for that guy, whoever it is. But that's riskier because you're banking on potential only, rather than an established elite hitter.
Yeah I saw that Snider tweet a while ago. "I will miss you all" sounds like "season ending wrist surgery"
Or, the more I think about it, could it mean a trade? It would seem weird to trade a player while out with an injury like this.
According to Shi Davidi, Snider has tendinitis and needs 4-6 weeks recovery. He's done for the year.
I'd like to see Lawrie and Snider become best buds and workout partners this off-season - I feel really bad for Snider after such a fouled up season and Lawrie's passion would be good for him I think.
But you never know what teams are thinking unless you ask
I agree completely. I hope AA is making inquiries on Votto and numerous other players that GMs likely have no intention of trading. However, my point was simply that if I was Cincinnati's GM, I'd see my star player, the face of the franchise and the 2010 NL MVP as absolutely essential to my team's chances of winning what looks like it will be a very winnable division in 2012 without Fielder on the Brewers and possibly Pujols leaving the Cards.
I agree completely. I hope AA is making inquiries on Votto and numerous other players that GMs likely have no intention of trading. However, my point was simply that if I was Cincinnati's GM, I'd see my star player, the face of the franchise and the 2010 NL MVP as absolutely essential to my team's chances of winning what looks like it will be a very winnable division in 2012 without Fielder on the Brewers and possibly Pujols leaving the Cards.
TamRa, excellent point about Loewen. He has played 15 games at CF this season. I think the Jays would still prefer to play McCoy at CF if Rasmus goes to the DL. But if there's an injury at SS or 2B, then McCoy could switch to the infield and Loewen could go to CF for the rest of the game. And the injury to Snider virtually guarantees that Loewen will be called up in September anyway, so -- as you say -- they could call him up now if Rasmus goes to the DL.
Can anyone provide a bit of analysis on tendonitis? Could it have explained Snider's problems over the past year? And what is the prognosis -- can it be completely cured or is it likely to linger for a long time? What are the long-term risks that it becomes chronic?
Some of the early media coverage has suggested that Snider didn't feel any wrist pain until a couple weeks ago. In that case, maybe it didn't affect him in any way until this month. But could it have weakened his wrist without him being aware of it?
No medical opinion here, CF... but my best guess would be this:
It COULD have affected him, if he was hurting and didn't tell anyone, and tried to make adjustments to avoid pain. That would explain how his swing got all fouled up.
Unless it comes out otherwise, news reports would suggest this isn't the case.
It COULD have affected him, if he was hurting and didn't tell anyone, and tried to make adjustments to avoid pain. That would explain how his swing got all fouled up.
Unless it comes out otherwise, news reports would suggest this isn't the case.
Every once in a while a Bauxite will make a definite statement that is a prediction. I admire that and the reasoning behind that prediction. Of course it is wrong quite often.
I made a strong prediction and was wrong before the July 31 trade deadline. I thought Carlos V would be traded because his value was higher than ever due to great RP results & pretty good SP results. Since we were not contending this year & IMO next year his chances of being in the opening day rotation were not good, this was the perfect time to trade him.
There have been other predictions by Bauxites that I would be interested in exploring.
I like the latest one about Jose Molina being traded. The choice of keeping Jeroloman instead of Mastro, who gives depth & injury backup just adds fuel to the Molina trade prediction.
Here is a long shot twist. AA wants Molina for next season, so he trades him now for a prospect or packages him for a good prospect, this way he gets talent and still gets Molina . He could not have the B pick because he wanted Molina.
The Bauxites' Rasmus prediction was a thing of beauty. Congratulations!! I did not think it would happen, so I apologise for my lack of faith in AA & the Bauxites.
I made a strong prediction and was wrong before the July 31 trade deadline. I thought Carlos V would be traded because his value was higher than ever due to great RP results & pretty good SP results. Since we were not contending this year & IMO next year his chances of being in the opening day rotation were not good, this was the perfect time to trade him.
There have been other predictions by Bauxites that I would be interested in exploring.
I like the latest one about Jose Molina being traded. The choice of keeping Jeroloman instead of Mastro, who gives depth & injury backup just adds fuel to the Molina trade prediction.
Here is a long shot twist. AA wants Molina for next season, so he trades him now for a prospect or packages him for a good prospect, this way he gets talent and still gets Molina . He could not have the B pick because he wanted Molina.
The Bauxites' Rasmus prediction was a thing of beauty. Congratulations!! I did not think it would happen, so I apologise for my lack of faith in AA & the Bauxites.
Is wrist tendonitis a common injury in a hitter? It strikes me that it says something about Snider's wonky swing (or maybe the effort to fix it) that he'd get hit with this now.
Lucky for the Jays Snider was in AAA when hurt. Why? Because for service time this just might have added a year before he qualifies for free agency. He needed to be down for 127 days this year for that to happen and it might have been reached with September now being minor league DL not ML time.
I wonder if he can be put on the 60 day DL without being given ML service time. That would free up a roster slot for September.
I wonder if he can be put on the 60 day DL without being given ML service time. That would free up a roster slot for September.
Snider spent time on the DL with a wrist sprain after a memorable (and ultimately productive) at-bat in 2010. Maybe there were some long-lasting consequences. I hope not.
I think he also did a lot of lifting in the off season.
Lucky for the Jays Snider was in AAA when hurt. Why? Because for
service time this just might have added a year before he qualifies for
free agency.
I doubt it. Per Cot's, he was at 1.126 at the beginning of the season. He was up for more than 46 days this year (172 days=1 year of service). Of course, if he continues like this, it won't matter. But for sure is not a super 2 any more.
One other thing though: he accumulated a full year of service last year, which means he did not burn an option. So he should have one left after this year.
I doubt it. Per Cot's, he was at 1.126 at the beginning of the season. He was up for more than 46 days this year (172 days=1 year of service). Of course, if he continues like this, it won't matter. But for sure is not a super 2 any more.
One other thing though: he accumulated a full year of service last year, which means he did not burn an option. So he should have one left after this year.
Lucky for the Jays Snider was in AAA when hurt. Why? Because for
service time this just might have added a year before he qualifies for
free agency.
At this point, I'm beginning to wonder if it matters. Snider's played 232 games in the majors, but hit just 248/307/423 and hasn't shown much improvement while struggling with some injuries. I wonder if he'll even make it to free agency with the Blue Jays, or, if he does, the team will even be interested in extending him. Similarly, I'm not too worried about what he might make in arbitration any time soon.
At this point, I'm beginning to wonder if it matters. Snider's played 232 games in the majors, but hit just 248/307/423 and hasn't shown much improvement while struggling with some injuries. I wonder if he'll even make it to free agency with the Blue Jays, or, if he does, the team will even be interested in extending him. Similarly, I'm not too worried about what he might make in arbitration any time soon.
Tendinitis is inflammation in a tendon. Any time you see "itis" at the end of a medical term, it means inflammation Tendinitis usually develops because a tendon has been overstressed, either due to vigorous exercise or repetitive strain. Tendons in the hand and wrist are particularly vulnerable to inflammation. Pain from tendinitis can be severe. Rest, immobilization, anti-inflammatories and the application of heat or cold are possible treatments.
Snider certainly has a lot of wrist in his new-look swing, and it may have led to the tendinitis. If it is his swing that is causing the problem, he may have to modify his swing, because tendinitis can become chronic and calcium deposits can build up in the affected area, which can lead to surgery.
For a young guy, Snider has had a fair bit of injury trouble. Injuries tend to get more common as a player gets older. I hope he doesn't become one of those guys who has a tough time staying in the lineup due to repeated injury trouble.