he may get a few votes for ROY.

Well, I assume you mean third-place votes .... a rookie SP winning 16 or so games in New York City is gonna sweep to the actual award, I think.

The problem with Lind, and a few other Jays hitters, is that they might not "struggle" next year but they might be average.  Yes, we know what these guys are capable of, at their peak. Some of them are probably at their peak now.  But they're more likely to be around average in 2012.  And that won't be good enough for a contending team.  That's why, in my view, Anthopoulos needs to keep trying to upgrade the team.  And yes, I know there's a debate about what "average" means, and there's a debate about how many "average" players can be carried on a contending team, but my point is that there's a definite risk that the Jays will have too many decent-but-not-great hitters next year.

In statistical terms, right now we're getting (in my view) close to peak production from Bautista, Escobar, Thames, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Arencibia and Molina.   Compare their current numbers to their career numbers and they're as good as we could hope for.  Yes, there's a chance that they could improve, but I see that as less likely than a slight or moderate decline. The veterans could decline from their peaks, and the rookies could decline as the league adjusts to them.  I don't know if AA should accept the risk of just sitting back and hoping that they continue at their current levels.

I admit there's a chance that the hitting could improve, by itself, without any adjustments.  Yes, maybe Lind and Rasmus and Thames and JPA will all improve, and maybe Snider will make the long-awaited breakthrough.  It could happen.  Even if 3 of those guys improve and 2 stay the same, the hitting could improve overall.  But I really hope that AA is looking for ways to keep improving the lineup.

I did an old-fashioned re-eleration of some of Lind's traditional stats the other day.  I have a lot of time on my hands, so I did this to amuse myself.  You know, anticipating the hilarious reaction of the advanced-stats nerds to my majorly, majorly comprehensive baseball research project.

Lind's missed a couple of dozen games or so this year, so I had to take that into consideration.  His results to date were extended to 160 games (I slam-dunked the other two scheduled games on a whim).

Age: 28     Salary:  $5.15 million

Runs: 78    BA: .263    HR: 35    RBI: 115    OPS: .768

Then I did the same for The Prince.  His OPS is .976, but if some of his other numbers extend out consistent to current results, based on 160 games played, he will hit 35 HR's and 123 RBI this year.

Prince earns $15.5 million and that's going to go up, up. up. 

Okay, sabermetrics nerds, go for it.  More crapping on Adam Lind will yield even more laughter at this end.   Hint:  If you got nothing, just tell me that I'm cherry-pickin'. 

Seriously, there is one thing I was hoping you advanced-stats nerds could tell me.  Last game, Perez and Janssen combined for a one-hit shutout.  I have to admit that I didn't see the advanced stats for the game. 

Please let me know about the advanced stats at your earliest.   Because there is no way I can tell whether or not Perez and Janssen pitched well without seeing the advanced stats. 

....Lind is not average....

Not sure who you're disagreeing with.  I've just reviewed the thread, and I don't see anyone who is arguing that Lind is currently an average hitter!  (My own point was that he might be average next year, rather than "struggling", and even an average hitter isn't something for the Jays to be content with.)

You listed Lind, Hill and Arencibia as the possible "upgrade" positions.  I agree with that, but I would add DH and LF because there's such a high risk of decline by Encarnacion and Thames next season.  I mean, I love what these guys are doing now, but I just don't see much assurance that it will continue.  There's only four hitters (Bautista, Rasmus, Lawrie and Escobar) with whom I'd feel content with in 2012.  The rest are, quite frankly, a bit of a gamble. 

....There's 4 major adjustments for you right there over an offence that's currently 4th best in the league....

But those adjustments aren't good enough.  Over the past 19 games, the Jays have averaged 4.5 runs per game.  The Yankees are averaging 5.4 runs per game this season, and the Red Sox are averaging 5.3 runs per game.  And, as I said before, the current Jays offence is benefiting from peak-level performances from several hitters which won't likely be sustained next season.

Yes, the Jays have faced some tough pitching this month, but they've also faced Seattle and Baltimore.  And yes, a 19-game sample isn't enough to make definitive judgments about the Jays, but it's enough to suggest that they shouldn't be complacent.

I'm not suggesting that the sky is falling.  Far from it.  Please quote me accurately.  I only said that the improvements aren't sufficient.

You argued that the Jays have made a big upgrade on offence -- improving one-third of their lineup.  I'm just asking:  where are the results?  In the season as a whole, the Jays are averaging 4.7 runs a game.  In August, they're averaging 4.5 runs a game.  I'm not arguing that they are worse than they were before -- I'm saying that the improvement isn't enough. 

Spifficus, just FYI, my comments were not in response to your comment, they were in response to Jonny's comments.

Anyway, you and Jonny are perfectly free to dismiss the past 19 games as irrelevant if you wish.  But you're missing my larger point:  Lawrie and Rasmus aren't going to transform this team into contenders next year.  It will take more than two very young players who are still vulnerable to adjustment issues. 

Rather than arguing about sample-size questions, let's hear what you and Jonny actually believe -- do the Jays have a good enough lineup now?  I'm saying no.  Are you saying that the lineup is fine now?  Or, if 2B is upgraded, is that enough? 

Spifficus, just FYI, my comments were not in response to your comment, they were in response to Jonny's comments.

Yeah. Kept getting distracted while writing the post and didn't realize until after a few minutes.

As for the offense, the team is 6th in the majors in runs and 8th in wRC+. It's also now a younger and better team than what was on the field for most of the year. I don't see why this team can't be projected to be at least the same next year, and that should be enough to be the core of a contending team. Now, that said, Lind and Hill have made themselves easy targets for replacement (except for the part of, well, you know, actually finding the replacements). If the opportunity's there and doesn't have a negative impact elsewhere, I have no problems with upgrading either.

The real issue next year is pitching. The Jays are 22nd in ERA and FIP, and 19th in xFIP. This is the area they have to dramatically improve upon for next year; the starting rotation in particular, though I suppose now they also need to reconstitute their bullpen.

There are quite a few opinions being expressed about what AA should or should not do to upgrade the Jays offense with Fielder or Pujols. But what WILL AA do? 

Yes,1st base/DH has a  huge opportunity to be upgraded with Fielder/Pujols. But the Jays have Edwin at an extremely affordable $3.5 million option. He seems to be thriving in the DH role, which cannot be said of many players who have been placed in that position. Barring some catastrophic end of the season collapse, he's a slam dunk for the DH job next year. Adam Lind, as has been pointed out, is what he is, a slightly (or more than slightly) below average 1st baseman. However, he's also signed for 2 more years at an affordable $5 million per. Unless AA can find a taker in a trade, or unless he declines dramatically, he'll hang around for the 2 years. Finally there is  David Cooper, Still only 24, he has shown he can hit home runs in AA, and then trade off some of that HR power for doubles, average and a K rate well under 10% in the PCL.  In all probability, he's not a future star, but he is an asset  with 6 years of team control and a fallback should either EE or Lind fall off a cliff.

Putting all this together, odds seem very slim AA will spend money like he never has before to upgrade a position that can be servicably filled with inhouse options. AA may surprise and prove me wrong, but I very much doubt it.

....I find it particularly bizarre when you refer to players that are 25 years and younger, who are not lighting it up and who have solid histories, as currently "playing at their peaks"....

Once again, you're grossly misquoting me.  Apparently you don't bother to read my comments before you begin to twist them around.

The phrase that you quoted -- out of context -- was followed by this sentence:  "The veterans could decline from their peaks, and the rookies could decline as the league adjusts to them."   So clearly the "peaks" reference was to the veterans, not the rookies.

You'll find that comments are less "bizarre" if you actually take the trouble to read them.

They have a lineup that can reasonably be expected to score as many runs as many playoff teams. 

And when the Jays move out of the AL East, Jonny German, this may become relevant. Until then their offense is not good enough to compete with NYY & BOS, teams in their division that are thoroughly outscoring them. Being as good on paper as DET or LAA does TOR very little.

I must say I enjoy China Fan complaining about other people taking his quotes out of context and twisting his words.

Glad that you've posted the full quote, so that everyone can see that I made a clear distinction between the rookies and the veterans. 

And please feel free to post any examples of me misquoting anyone else.  I always post verbatim excerpts from the posts of others, to ensure that I'm quoting accurately.  I'd be quite happy to defend any of them, if you can find any to quibble with.

Kershaw won't be cheap for the Dodgers.  He is arb eligible and should see sizeable award this year.

And yes, they would have to be nuts.  And many teams are.