So 92-93, would you pay him whatever he wanted?  You would have paid $3.5m for him?

And if you say yes, how do you think it would impact your negotiations with your draft picks next year?

I find this logic inherently ridiculous on multiple levels. First of all, the Jays by all accounts had a hugely agressive draft, picking a ton of high upside tough sign guys, and they signed 11 of their top 13 picks, often over slot, plus gave big deals to a couple of later guys like Dean. As far as I can tell the overall expenditure will be in the 10-11 million range, which will make them one of the 5-7 biggest spending teams. Yes, not signing Beede puts a damper on things, but it's not like they cheaped out as with the Paxton year (which pretty much nobody was happy with, your recollections aside.) As a matter of general principle the difference with all these guys is rarely more than a million, but a line has to be drawn somewhere, and if the team blindly gave in to everyone's demands that would surely have financial repercussions down the road. By all accounts the Jays had one of the better drafts, and being upset about not being able to sign a (by all accounts non-top 10) guy with top-10 money when they'll get the pick back next year and were able to sign another pitcher who pretty much everyone agrees is better (Norris) just seems spiteful. And hard slotting is hardly a guarantee for next year.

The Pirates and Nats comparisons are also beyond pointless - those teams have been awful and have drafted in the top 3, where there have been players worthy of paying $8 million bucks a pop, which skews things pretty quickly.

Also, no one thinks James Paxton is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

The team also knew Norris' price, which was $3.9 million, and that he very well might go to school. They drafted him anyway, and signed him for $2 million. You're gonna win some and lose some, but you can't have it both ways.

It seems to me that the Jays played chicken with Norris and Beede.  Norris blinked and Beede didn't.  I find it odd that a 16 year-old pitcher from Venezuela is worth $2.8M but an 18 year-old pitcher isn't.

What will be interesting is the effect slotting might have on next year's draft if it's implemented.  Will HS players be a lot less likely to sign or will they just adjust their demands, knowing the new reality?  If it's the former then this could be an especially poor draft, with poor drafts to follow in 2013 and 2014.  That might 2015 an epic draft year with all those deferred highschoolers, now college juniors, coming out all at once. 

Yeah I was probably wrong on this, I was just going by a couple of midseason lists.

I don't see Beede's non sign as a positive for the Jays.  Yes they signed other guys but they would be better if they had signed Beede.

95% of first rounders take the money, the Jays drafted the other 5%.  Going back to the draft I don't think the Jays talked to Beede much, they knew the $3m was out there but they assumed he would buckle.  He didn't and the Jays suffer because of it.

Kevin Goldstein and Keith Law now have to retract their "the Jays and Beede have a pre-draft deal" opinions.  And maybe they could retract the sign stealing comments while they are at it.

And the rationalizing continues.

My comment was pretty clearly specifically in regards to being upset that they drafted Beede while knowing his price and still didn't pay it, and he didn't sign. They also drafted Norris and didn't pay his price, but they signed him and people were fine with that. But thanks for your pithy dig.

The Jays had a good draft, and not a great one (and certainly not a terrible one). They offered Beede good money by all accounts, and he didn't take it. Despite the various pleas, "cave" is not a negotiating strategy, and this draft year does not exist in a vacuum. I would have preferred it if they had taken Beede as well, but crap happens. Clearly they thought they could sign him. The Jays were one of the top spenders this year, but they did have a budget, and not every team signs every player, even the Yankees, Red Sox, Pirates et al. You can be upset about it if you want, it's just a fact of baseball. I prefer to take a more positive world view, but if you want to continue with the pessimistic Rogers/AA-bashing pity party that is your prerogative.

In a vacuum, the Jays had a very good draft, and added a lot of talent. Unfortunatly, they play in the AL East. Boston had 4 of the top 40 picks, drafted 4 high upside prospects and signed all 4. Tampa had 10 of the top 60 picks, drafted a mixture of upside and signability and inked all 10.  Baltimore signed their top 11 picks.

Are we any further ahead?

The point about Cardona being worth $2.8 million and the Jays balking at Beede's asking price is very well made.  There's a valuable point to be made about the Jays trying to show they won't be bullied around but I think they could have upped their offer to $3 million and seen what Beede's reaction was.

Ok, I don't actually mean this. It sucks that they didn't sign Beede, and it represents a failure on a relatively large scale - they obviously didn't have as good a handle on things, and I (like most everyone else I assume) assumed that this last thing was a ploy and they already had a deal done, so it did come as a shock.

With that being said, as was elaborated on our Twitter yesterday, at least I feel like this is a failure upwards for the Jays - I would rather see them being ambitious and fail 10 times out of 10 than fail while being conservative.

The 16-year-old from Venezuela could sign with any team he wanted. The 18 year-old had only one option - sign with the Jays - and that would be reflected in the negotiations.

Obviously, Beede did have more than one option since he exercised it.

I agree that comparing this draft to 2009 is silly. I came out very negatively against the lack of signings that year (too negatively, in retrospect) and the result of that is the Jays missed one guy they’d love to have in their system (all else being equal), one guy who looks like he’s going to bomb and a player who currently sits somewhere in the middle.

Gerry’s right in that it’s not good news the team didn’t sign Beede. This was a very deep draft, so pick 22 might not be as good next year and the Jays may not be able to take the BPA regardless of price, given that the player may have some additional leverage due to the fact the pick must be signed or forfeited. The Jays would have a better system with Beede in the fold. Whether you think the Jays should have matched his asking price, that much is true.

Gerry, where did you hear $2.5 was Beede's final offer? I saw $2.3 from Baseball America (but that was earlier this morning).

I second the question of why the Jays chose to promote fungible players like Lewis and Ledezma instead of Farquhar. One of them as a second lefty I get, but not both.

Well, he only had one contract option

Actually it's the Jays offer vs. the college offer/experience plus the potential contract offer 3 years from now.  That actually worked out very well for Gerrit Cole.  I think Beede's nuts though to turn down the $2.5M.

I am not happy that the Jays did not sign Beede, but I do like the strategy of drafting high upside guys who other teams bypass due to signability concerns.  The down fall of the strategy is that you expect people to be rational.  They often are not (sounds like Beede's dad was involved).

Next year they can take a more signable guy with one of their first round picks and roll the dice again with the other.

I'd much rather have this draft result than the early JP "college" years where everyone signed but then turned into pumkins when they hit their low ceilings.

I am glad Trevor Miller has been demoted.  It probably saved my TV from destruction and will help ensure my kids don't learn any more swear words from dad.  Man, he stunk. 

Rommie Lewis is an interesting guy.  For the past two seasons, he's sported some lousy ERA numbers at Las Vegas, and his peripherals don't look hugely impressive.  But he's a lefty-killer.  This year he has a 0.85 WHIP against LH hitters, who are hitting just .180 against him.  (This according to Wilner.  I don't see minor-league splits on BR, so I'm not sure of his source.)  Anyway Lewis should be better than Miller as a LOOGY option.  But after the Dotel experience, will Farrell use him properly?

If Lewis has a 0.85 WHIP against lefties, yet his overall ERA this season is 6.60, then his splits against RH hitters must be horrendous.  Let's hope he pitches exclusively against lefties.

A failure to sign your first round draft pick has to be considered a failure for the organization and a disappointment for the fans.   However, the magnitude of the failure/disappointment differs in each situation (and as is evident up above, in the eye of each beholder).  For me, this is a pretty big failure by the organization/disappointment for me for 3 reasons:

- the team is set up to compete in the next 3-4 years with a near critical mass of position players and pitchers of the right age/right contract amount and status and the Jays just missed an opportunity to add another piece to that mix (as Mike Green noted, Kolten Wong as an example) - the replacement draftee is yet another year out from contributing

- this is another data point that the Jays' real budget is less than the innuendo of greater budgets to come that we hear from time to time from the organization.  The reality here is that with one of the deepest drafts in recent history and a significant number of early round picks the Jays's will have spent equal to or less than what was spent last year prior to dumping Wells' contract

- the replacement pick in 2012 at number 22 and unprotected is sure to be less talented (on projection) than Beede

Hopefully I don’t receive a ton of hate mail because I know you’re not suppose to criticize AA.

While it’s nice to see the Jays signed 11 of their first 13 picks, I’m extremely disappointed they didn’t sign Beede. The Jays had an idea of what it would take to sign him when they drafted him so they couldn’t have been shocked when he didn’t come off his 3.5 million dollar asking price. The margin of error in the AL East is extremely slim, and it gets tougher when you don’t sign your first round pick in a very deep draft. It’s hard to see a talent like Beede slip away over 1 million dollars. On the positive side, the Jays might be able to trade away the 21A pick next season in the new CBA.

Frankly I’m shocked any kid can turn down 2.5 million dollars to play baseball.  Even if Beede flames outs, his college tuition would still be covered by the Jays. 2.5 million dollars makes him financially set for life and he could invest it right now. By signing, he also wouldn’t have to study or do homework. He also basically turned down sponsorship opportunities and free swag/a vacation from the Blue Jays/MLB. I also wonder why an “advisor” would be okay with this agreement. His advisor just lost a lot of money right now by Beede’s decision. Players like Tim Lincecum and Gerrit Cole prove turning down big money out of High School can pay off in the long run. Hopefully Beede joins this list and not the list of the Matt Harrington’s of the world.

TamRa, thanks for the Goldstein link. That was very interesting, and confirms that Norris was more highly-regarded from a talent perspective than Beede.

My favourite quote from the interview: if every team in baseball knew that Norris would sign for $2M, he would have gone a heck of alot higher.

I'm still not thrilled that Beede got away, but it sounds like we acquired a good haul of high-level talent in this draft.

I don't agree with his overall conclusion about unacceptability, but I do think Metafour's post is accurate in that it's not fair to place Beede on the same level as some of the other "tough signs" from the draft, who one could logically expect to give a little to a lot in their asking price, given his commitment and pre-draft letter and so on. Maybe you could expect him to drop a little (and maybe that's what $2.5 reflected), but I do think it was likely Beede was going to be far less likely to blink that many other draftees.

I don't think that means they necessarily shouldn't have taken him, but I do think he can be distinguished from other possible tough signs.

My two-cents,

It's not the end of the World and the Jays will go on (the Paxton miss was worse because of his potential canadian pr), but it's impossible to spin this as anything but a failure of AA and the FO. I've heard his explanation and while it may be sincere and honest, it sounds like what every GM who has failed to sign his top pick has said in recent years - regarding value & competative offer - if you want to stick to those values then the team should do better research and avoid prospects that have excellent leverage - like Beede/Bell/Purke unless the Jays were willing to pony up like the Nationals & Pirates - What particularly bothered me was that there were other high upside prospects available who didn't have the same type of leverage and tough sign buzz(top school/family financially secure) like prep arms Taylor Guerrieri (whom I liked better) , Robert Stephenson and college guys like Alex  Meyer etc.

The worst aspect of this draft is that despite the Jays having a good draft, initially it appears that both Boston and Tampa did better.    

(or whatever crap Goldstein/Law were pumping out)

And your qualifications are? Your contacts are? You've seen these players how many times? Talked to them, their families, their advisors? So they either had wrong information or misinterpreted the information. It happens. Not sure why this qualifies their body of work as crap. Where were you getting your evaluations for this draft, anyway? I'm guessing you didn't fly around to see the kids pitch, and that you don't have a bunch of front office contacts, so that leaves the Goldstein/Law/Callis evaluators, the same ones that were passing on what they were hearing on Norris' price tag, Bell's unsignability (I'm surprised about that one), evaluations from people in the industry, etc. But now we crap on them. Goldstein and Law are both out saying the Jays still had a very good / excellent draft without signing Beede (haven't checked in on Callis or others yet). It's not the failure or disaster or cheapness of the franchise that you or others want to portray. A bit disappointing we didn't add that one more piece of upside talent? Yeah. Is it yet another sign of a cheap organization in a downward spiral? They spent around $11M or so, and that's without the $2.5 they offered Beede. Honestly, that point of view is stupid. There may be other examples, but this isn't it.

I'm not that fussed that we got Norris/Comer instead of Beede/Comer.  Klaw had indicated that might happen and if their draft position were flipped more casual fans would not be so up in arms. 

I am mildly disappointed they didn't sign more of the HS pitchers with upside drafted after round 5.  Thought they might redirect some of the money that way...maybe it went to the int'l market and to pay Teahan?  who knows. 

I'm not that fussed that we got Norris/Comer instead of Beede/Comer. 

That hasn't been the issue here. This board.has generally acknowleged Norris is the higher upside talent. 

Leading up to the draft there were a lot of scouts that were mixed on Norris;

Who exactly were these "lots of scouts"? Goldstein had him ranked 16th, the same as BA. Law did have him down at 35 vs Beede's 30 (Law's opinion is Beede is the safer bet, but Norris has the higher upside}. We got Norris at  pick 74..

I don't think you can consider the Beede situation independent of Norris and Comer.  All three were first round talents with big questions about signability.  Most analysts predicted they'd sign two of three and they did.  It was considered that it would cost $8m+ to sign all three.  The Jays strategy of sticking close to their valuations on all three resulted in them saving close to $3m on the signings of Norris and Comer.  The cost of the strategy was the one year deferral on the 21st pick in the draft.

So instead of Beede, they have #21 next year and $3m to spend in the International market.

Bell went with the first pick of the second round, 61st overall. I believe that the Jays had a total of 5 picks before that, but every team (save one without a top 60 pick I believe) passed on Bell at least once.

You can't compare a free agent to a draftee period

I can and did.

1. Buy subscription to Baseball America. (and maybe Prospectus, and an ESPN insider sub so you can read Keith Law)
   
2. Draft the players BA says are the best.
3. Hand all draftees a blank cheque.
4. Win World Series.
   

Not one of Elvis's stronger efforts.

Yesterday was the 34th anniversary of his death.  My memory of that day is bumping into a girl I worked with on the subway who was a big Elvis fan.  She was in shock.

It was a response to someone complaining that the Norris/religion thread was getting off topic.  It's an unfortunate habit as you get older that sort of goes like "Well, back in the day......".  I do miss the irreverence.

I think it's ridiculous to shriek about a "disaster" when one draft choice doesn't sign, especially after all the extra picks that AA has acquired and all the international signings that AA has masterminded for top Latin American talent in recent months.  However, I do agree that there were some errors in AA's handling of the Beede situation, and some inconsistency (or spin-doctoring) in AA's explanation of what happened.

For example, here is the official explanation from AA, courtesy of John Lott today:  "The GM reiterated that his people do not panic in negotiations. They set a value on each player. They stick to it."  And these direct quotes from AA:   "We just have to set values and talk about it in a rational state.... We don't deviate from those amounts."

At yet, from the same John Lott article:  "Beede told ESPN Boston that the Jays' first offer, at 11: 15 p.m., was US$2-million.  At 11: 55, they called back and offered US$2.5-million, he said."

Beede's account is very specific and detailed, and seems unlikely to be invented.  So, in the space of 40 minutes, the "cool" and "rational" Blue Jays suddenly abandoned their first "value" and threw an extra $500,000 at Beede.  So, logically, either they were deliberately low-balling Beede at 11:15 pm or they were suddenly exceeding their limit at 11:55 pm.  Either way, it seems rather disorganized and panicky.  A general manager who carefully weighs every penny in contract talks was suddenly able to find an extra $500,000 for Beede at literally the 11th hour.  It's hard to know what the Jays had determined as the real "value" of Beede if the number shifted by 25 per cent in the space of 40 minutes.

I would imagine that it's because Major League hitters are good at hitting. Seriously though, there are aspects of Mills game that seem alright, but at the end of the day there's basically one guy that has gotten away with throwing 85 consistently. It's tough.

Also, good points China Fan.

It seems to me the Jays took a risk by drafting Beede, and it backfired on them. The lesson: Never take risks.

I hate that statement.  In the JPA era, we did "Safe picks".  A couple years later....  "Yawn".  I like the high risk/high return.  In some cases, like Beede it turns out bad, and in some cases like Escobar it pays off.  Hopefully, the scouting has done it's work and they are calculated gambles.  In Beede's case they miscalculated.  They got 5/6 impossible signs. 

Bottom line, don't be a hater.  Look at what went right in this draft.  In fact, look what has gone right this year.  There may be a couple mistakes, like Beede, but in general, this organization is moving in the right direction.

It seems to me the Jays took a risk by drafting Beede, and it backfired on them. The lesson: Never take risks.

I hate that statement.

I think it was meant as sarcasm.

The logic of a player deciding to go the college route rather than take a large bonus coming out of HS is that he feels he might receive a larger bonus in 3 years time when he's eligible to be drafted again.  That way he hasn't foregone the bonus part.  The second part is that the vast majority of players are not ready for the majors by age 21 so it's not clear that they will lose any major league playing time and thus salary.  They've simply traded in 3 years of minor league playing time for 3 years of college playing time.

The only study I've seen concluded that in the first 3 rounds HS and college draftees performed about equally when it came to WAR I believe.  If WAR translates directly to salary then I guess you would conclude that they would earn about the same.

Interestingly, Brett Lawrie was drafted in 2008 and if he hadn't signed he would have been eligible for this past draft where I suspect he would have gone very high and probably signed for a much bigger bonus than he did in 2008.  Assuming this he would likely have been agreeing to a contract a few minutes before midnight on Monday.  Of course, right around that time Lawrie was actually playing in a major league game in Seattle and inching closer to arbitration and free-agency.

....it's called negotiating. if you go to buy a used car that you are willing to give $5,000 for but you think the guy might sell it for $4,000 - do you g ahead and offer five up front?

Okay, let's use the car analogy. What if your whole family is urging you to buy the car -- it's shiny and fancy and everyone thinks you should have it. The dealer knows this, and he's not even sure if he wants to sell it anyway, since he promised to let his mother drive it to church on Sundays. So he asks for $7,000 for the car, even though he knows it's only worth $5,000 on the open market. You go to buy the car, and the dealer keeps demanding $7,000 for it, no matter how hard you try to negotiate. He keeps demanding $7,000 for weeks on end, thinking that he can make a $2,000 profit and buy another car for his mother. But your family is putting more and more pressure on you to buy that fancy car. The dealer says he's taking the car off the market on Saturday night at midnight, so that his mother can drive it to church the next morning. So, at 11:55 pm on Saturday night, you break down and reluctantly offer $6,000 for the car, even though you know it's only worth $5,000. The dealer says, sorry, I want $7,000 or I'm not selling. You have to go home and tell the sad news to your family. And the dealer has to drive his mother to church in a grossly overpriced used car.

Is this real negotiating? Or is this a series of miscalculations on both sides?

I think it's worth noting that it's probably much easier for hitters to go to college and come back in 3 years, as their risk of catastrophic injury is much less. Several college programs (I believe Vanderbilt is one of them) are notorious for overworking their pitchers, whereas teams have a financial interest in not doing this. A college coach this year sent out an injured player to pitch on the weekend before the draft, par example.

It's hard to imagine that, adjusted for inflation, Beede will get more money in 3 years - $2.5 million would be one of the top 15-20 overall bonuses this year? If he wants to go to college, or if he thinks he's worth a certain number, good for him, and I wish him the best, but if you were to lay it out actuarially I can't imagine it's a winning financial proposition on balance.

Also re: free agent signings - if you compile a list of everyone who signed for more than $30 million total money over the last 5 years, I think you'll find that on balance those deals turned out poorly. Free agency is not an efficient way to spend money at all. That doesn't mean I don't think we should sign Pujols, I 'd love that. Just for the most part you are paying guys past their prime exorbitant salaries based on past performance that is unlikely to be repeated.