Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - A So-So Night with Surprisingly Little Pitching

A So-So Night with Surprisingly Little Pitching

Dustin McGowan pitched well in AA and Henderson Alvarez seemed pretty good in the ole MLB, but that doesn't count for these purposes anymore. Elsewhere, some hitting, some pitching, some wins, some losses.

New Orleans 7 at Las Vegas 8

This was a see-saw affair, as Las Vegas led 2-0 before falling behind 4-2, retaking a 6-4 lead which became a 6-5 lead, then held on to squeak out a 8-7 win.Las Vegas managed only 8 hits, with Jason Lane and Jayson Nix picking up 2 apiece. However the club walked 10 times, with Travis Snider reaching 3 times via the free pass and one time via a single in his five place appearances, also stealing a bag. To paraphrase a BA chat, who knows at this point. Snider has clearly shown he can destroy, albeit mostly with walks and singles, AAA pitching. Meanwhile David Cooper walked and singles in 5 at bats, while Mike McCoy walked twice and singles. Robert Ray started for Las Vegas and took all of the damage, allowing all 7 runs in 7.2 innings. He did give up 11 hits, but walked only 1 while striking out 6.

Erie 0 at New Hampshire 8

One of, if not the best Jays story of the year continued apace, as run-DMG, i.e. Dustin McGowan, went 4 innings and allowed only 3 baserunners, on a hit and 2 walks. He struck out 4 and obviously allowed 0 runs. He was under his allotted pitch count by some 20 pitches (low 40s vs. 65,) but did hit his innings cap. Apparently he has another 4 inning start before a 5 inning start is in the cards, and he could legitimately be up with the big club in September after not pitching in the Majors since 2008. Pretty $**@# inspiring. In related news, Rey Gonzalez continued a good but hardly superlative AA season by allowing 2 hits and striking out 1 in 3 innings to secure the W. Adeiny took an 0fer, but Moises Sierra went 3/5 with a home run, and Travis d'Arnaud, John Tolisano, Yan Gomes, Mark Sobolewski and Jonathan Diaz all had 2 hits, while Anthony Gose whiffed three times but hit his 12th dinger.

Brevard County 9 at Dunedin 2

Move along folks, nothing to see here. Brad McElroy went 4/4 with 4 singles and Sean Ochinko doubled and walked. That's about it. Ryan Tepera gave up 6 runs in 5 innings and Justin Phillabaum gave up the other 3 in 2.

Lansing 4 at South Bend 5

The Lugz tough streak continued as they scored in the 9th to tie the game before promptly surrendering the winning run in the bottom half of the inning. Pinch hitter Luis Hertado had 2 hits, while Oli Dominguez doubled and walked twice. That's about it. Sean Nolin allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits with 2 and 2.

Vancouver 5 at Yakima 11

Zach Breault allowed 5 runs in 5.1 innings, Philip Brua 4 in 2.1 and Bryan Longpre 2 in 0.1. Needless to say, Vancouver did not win. Still, Roan Salas was 3/4 with a double, while Nicholas Baligod walked twice and singled twice.

Princeton 2 at Bluefield 4

Deivy Estrada pitched a fine 5 innings, allowing only 4 hits while striking out 6. Dalton Pompey added 3 hits, including 2 doubles, while Kevin Pillar singled twice and drove in 2 runs.

GCL Tigers at GCL Jays - Postponed

DSL Tigers 1 at DSL Jays 10

Yeyfry Del Rosario allowed 1 hit in 5 innings, striking out 6. Huzzah! Meanwhile the DSL Jays scored 10 runs on 5 hits, though they did walk 11 times.

DSL Tigers 7 at DSL Jays 2

This DSL game was not nearly as interesting.

3 Stars!

Third Star! Deivy Estrada - 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 6 K.
Second Star! Moises Sierra - 3/5, HR, 2 R, RBI
First Star! Brad McElroy - 4/4, R

Posted by Anders on Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 02:22 AM EDT.

A So-So Night with Surprisingly Little Pitching | 78 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

hypobole - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 06:24 AM EDT (#240684) #

In a bit of an odd twist, the 51's scored 8 runs, but only one of those via a base hit. 2 runs in the 1st on a force out and a wild pitch, In the 5th, 2 runs scored on a fielding error and another 2 on bases loaded walks. Mastro finally plated a run in the 6th with an RBI triple, then scored himself when the ball was thrown away.

Ducey - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#240688) #

Snider has clearly shown he can destroy, albeit mostly with walks and singles, AAA pitching

Yeah, only two taters with a .736 OPS vs lefties (.994 OPS vs northpaws). Until I see his power improve and some evidence that he can drive the ball the other way, I'm thinking he still is trying to pull everything - and therefore will struggle in the majors.

Gerry - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#240690) #

After indicating that Dustin McGowan would become a starter, I have heard it mentioned that they are now thinking of keeping him in the bullpen.

I think it's fair to say they don't know what to do with him yet.

AWeb - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#240691) #

If Snider turned into a .310/.380/.430 MLB guy (making a rough AAA Vegas -> MLB conversion), that's still valuable, but there's been no sign of this during his time with the big club (doesn't walk or hit for average). I'm fine with him turning out as a high average, middling power guy who takes walks, especially since his defense seems to have vastly improved, and he can steal bases, which I didn't see coming at all. I think most Jays fans would take it as well, even as a disappointment. But I suspect he's not ready to be that guy, and that the organization isn't ready for it either.

Either way, I really hope he doesn't get another callup this year unless he starts hitting balls over the fence. Hitting .347 in Vegas isn't that impressive (he's fifth on the team among 100 AB guys, Thames and Lawrie were both higher), sadly.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#240694) #

If they make him part of a tandem, I guess that he might be "both". If the club starts 2012 with a rotation of Romero, Morrow, Cecil, McGowan/Mills and Litsch with Villanueva, Alvarez, Janssen and Perez in the bullpen, that would be fine with me. You would want to shore up the back end of the pen (cheaply) and acquire some cheap rotation insurance in case Drabek, McGuire and Hutchison are all not ready to help out, leaving money to deal with the position player issues.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#240695) #

Snider's defensive improvements have been impressive. I hope that that message has been conveyed to him by the organization.

If I were a hitting coach (and I have absolutely no qualifications to be one), I would tell him to be like the Babe. Swing hard, try to swing at strikes, and don't worry about the strikeouts. He's hit .300 throughout his minor league career despite striking out over once per game.

Matthew E - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#240696) #

Dwayne Murphy was on the FAN the other day and said that Snider's problem is in getting around on fastballs; he keeps trying to cheat to catch up to them and messes up his swing in so doing. It's not so much a problem in the minors, where the good fastballs aren't as plentiful, but in the majors he's having trouble. It didn't sound like Murphy thought this was an insoluble problem.

Kasi - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#240702) #

Snider needs to
1) Hit for some power
2) Show more patience at the plate

I don't really care that much about his average. If he's a .260 hitter so be it. But he needs to show power (he has it) and discipline of some sort (+5% walk rate at least) to succeed in the majors.

subculture - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#240703) #

This is in line with the charts showing Snider's inability to hit 'power' pitchers, while he rakes 'finesse' pitchers. In AAA he's likely not facing many polished 'power' pitchers thus the reason he always does so well there.

So unless he can somehow dramatically improve his bat speed or pitch recognition, the obvious solution to me would be to try to hit everything opposite field and up the middle, and not swing at the inside fastballs. Easier said than done though...

Magpie - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#240706) #

If Snider turned into a .310/.380/.430 MLB guy (making a rough AAA Vegas -> MLB conversion)

I just can't see that - there's certainly a way for him to be a productive hitter, but not that kind of productive hitter. I simply can't see a guy who strikes out as often as Snider ever hitting .310, unless he gets just phenomenally lucky on his balls in play. As a minor leaguer, Snider struck out more often than Adam Dunn, who's never come within 30 points of hitting .300.

MatO - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#240707) #

My concern is that Snider had more walks in last night's game than in his entire recent recall. It's a lot easier to hit when you're ahead in the count. I don't expect walk rates to translate proportionally from AAA to the majors but I don't expect them to disappear entirely either.

There was a game early in his last recall where Snider took a low and away pitch and slapped it into left field. At the time i thought that was sort of cool but I wasn't sure I wanted Snider to be emulating Matty Alou.

Magpie - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#240708) #

If they make him part of a tandem

Does anyone actually do that, though? Major league managers, as a rule, hate that sort of thing. They hate stepping outside the tracks already set down. Whoever is managing McGowan will want to use him as either a regular starter, just like the other four - or as a regular reliever, just like the other six.

While neither of these approaches may be right for McGowan, a manager will still be extremely reluctant to disrupt his patterns for using the other twelve guys on his staff just to accomodate this one.

I wonder if the best approach for McGowan might be the way Cito Gaston squuezed some useful work out of Danny Cox, another guy whose arm just couldn't hold up to pitching at the major league level. Gaston resisted the temptation to use Cox as a starter (there were calls for it at the time), and generally tried to get him a couple of days rest between each relief outing.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#240710) #

I agree, Mat O. I want Aaron Hill to be doing that (rather than popping the bloody thing up), not Snider. The 60s model for Snider would be Reggie Jackson, who led the league in strikeouts every year, hit .270 in a good year, but did everything else.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#240711) #

Sure, Magpie. It would be a shame to give McGowan 80 low leverage innings though. I suppose that you can use him as a tandem set-up guy (without calling it that), and have him go the 7th and 8th inning every two or three days. Alternatively, you could make Mills the starter and tell McGowan that he will get 2-3 innings when Mills starts and will make one other appearance in the middle of the Mills' starts. He then technically is a "reliever", but is actually working in tandem. The "we've always done it this way" line reminds me too much of the speedy, impatient leadoff hitters of the 60s.

Gerry - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#240715) #

BA are running their best tools and some Blue Jays are featured:

Triple A:

Best batting prospect: Brett Lawrie

Best change-up and Best control: Brad Mills

Double A:

Fastest baserunner, Best defensive outfielder and Most exciting player: Anthony Gose

Best defensive catcher: Travis d'Arnaud

Best defensive SS: Adeiny Hechavarria

Best outfield arm: Moises Sierra

Best fastball: Henderson Alvarez

High A:

Best control: Nestor Molina

Best reliever: Wes Etheridge

Best defensive catcher: AJ Jimenez

Best batting prospect: Jake Marisnick

Best reliever: Steve Turnbull

Best managing prospect: Mike Redmond

That's a lot of recognition.

jgadfly - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#240717) #

Hopefully, one of the plusses for McGowan this time around, will be the presence of Morrow on the staff , with the thought that they will be better able to utilize each other's experiences with diabetes.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#240718) #

The best defensive catcher awards are very interesting.

Krylian19 - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#240721) #

If there's talk about possibly keeping McGowan in the pen, I wonder if he's having trouble sustaining his velocity once he gets to the 4th inning?

Jonny German - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#240723) #

"Best defensive catcher" for d'Arnaud is incredible, given that he's also #4 in the league with an OPS of .959. And even that is something of an understatement - 2 of the guys ahead of him are 26 years old (Travis is 22), and 5th place is a step down at .902.

uglyone - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#240725) #

Somebody remind me when "prospect" status expires as far as BA is concerned? will Lawrie still qualify (not that it matters in the least, but still).

and if D'Arnaud is the best offensive and defensive catcher in AA, that must make him a top-10 prospect in baseball, no?

Gerry - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#240728) #

Re: BA. I am not 100% sure but I believe it's 150 AB's or 50 IP.

uglyone - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#240729) #

I was just thinking that even though he never spent the big bucks on the IFA market, JP did a pretty bang up job for us there still - Alvarez, Molina, Sierra all looking pretty damn good.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#240731) #

I don't know, uglyone. Catchers are so susceptible to injury that placing them on overall best prospect lists is very, very tricky. Will Myers was a BA top 10 prospect last year, and at the age of 20 is finding that his star is falling in double A.
This is d'Arnaud's first complete season of high-quality performance, with others being interrupted by injury, and I would be hesitant to compare him favourably with an outfielder. For what it's worth, Mesoraco and d'Arnaud are currently considered about even by BA..

The memory of Guillermo Quiroz' great AA season, and what followed, is still fresh in my mind.

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#240733) #

After indicating that Dustin McGowan would become a starter, I have heard it mentioned that they are now thinking of keeping him in the bullpen.

I got the impression that Farrell was simply acknowledging that no doors are closed - and that as much in reaction to potentially having more rotation candidates than he has spots next spring. as much as a reaction to what McGowan has done so far. i've not heard anyone comment to even the slightest degree that he's running out of gas or any such thing. Maybe your internal sources are saying something different?

dan gordon - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#240743) #

In Snider's 3 games since the most recent demotion, he's 7 for 12, all singles, with 3 walks and 5 for 5 stealing. That sounds like a completely different ballplayer than what was expected of him a couple of years ago. I would love to know how he and the Jays are viewing him. He was always regarded as a future 30+ HR guy, and average/steals would be secondary. He's got 5 HR's this year in about 400 AB's. Have they decided he can't be a big power hitter? Maybe the thinking is to hit for average first and then develop the power later. Odd situation.

Nice start for Pompey with his new team.

From what I saw of Alvarez last night, his fastball seems to have good movement. If he can develop a good slider, he's going to be really good.

Great to see McGowan have such a good game in AA. I'd like to see them continue to start him and keep building up the innings slowly. No rush. I'm beginning to think that by some time in September we'll see him starting some games for the Jays.

Mills didn't look good at all against a pretty weak hitting A's team today. Don't know why he wasn't using his curve more often.

Very nice to see D'Arnaud and Jimenez get such good reviews for their defense. Some stats thrown out during today's game - only 2 teams in the AL have more than 8 passed balls. The Red Sox (who have Wakefield and his knuckleball) and the Jays, and the Jays have 18 of them. They also are 2nd highest in wild pitches.

Thames doesn't look very good in LF. I think he has to outhit Snider by a fair bit to get the LF job next year (assuming Encarnacion is the DH).

China fan - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#240749) #

It seems increasingly likely that the future of Brad Mills is in the bullpen (if anywhere). His stuff just doesn't play over multiple innings in the majors.

Jesse Litsch, too, seems to be successful in a bullpen role. I suppose this is another reason why Anthopoulos didn't hesitate to trade away three relievers for Rasmus -- he knows that the Jays have plenty more potential relievers in their system. (Now if only one of them could become a closer....)

As for the Travis Snider situation: the comments by Dwayne Murphy seem to imply that Snider needs to "get ready" earlier on fastballs -- like the adjustment that Bautista eventually made in late 2009. I suppose if Bautista was able to make that adjustment at the age of 28, there's still plenty of time for Snider to make the adjustment. It suggests, also, that Snider's problems in his 2nd major-league stint this year were different from his problems in his first stint. After his first stint, he was demoted to make a mechanical fix in his swing, but it wasn't the same kind of adjustment that Murphy is now suggesting.

And yes, the results of Snider's first three games in Las Vegas this week are very encouraging, but it's too early to say that he's solved anything.

AWeb - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#240751) #

just can't see that - there's certainly a way for him to be a productive hitter, but not that kind of productive hitter. I simply can't see a guy who strikes out as often as Snider ever hitting .310...

I agree it is unlikely, but Snider's success in AAA this year has been when hitting for a high average, and little power. It's unusual for a guy to go from power prospect to high average player (the best guys are usually good at both, as Snider was until this year), but it's also unusal to go from "DH prospect" to "maybe he can play CF". Admittedly I'm grasping at straws, because Snider has regressed so much I'm thinking of a Halladay-esque rebuild from scratch. With his immense talent, it might be possible for Snider to go from a Adam Dunn type to, I don't know, a 2011 Yunel Escobar type?

Kasi - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#240752) #

The walks to me are encouraging. The lack of doubles and homers still worries me greatly about Snider's future.

China fan - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#240758) #

Congratulations to Adeiny Hechavarria, who has been promoted to Las Vegas today (per Kevin Gray). I wonder if this means that we'll see him in a Jays uniform in September? And I also wonder if that might be contractually required?

92-93 - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#240760) #

I highly doubt anything is contractually required but it's not a stretch to think AA "promised" the promotion much like he "promised" EE regular ABs.

China fan - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#240761) #

And like he promised regular ABs to John Buck last year too. That's sort of what I meant by "contractually required." Not in the written contract, but in the unofficial verbal contract. And Anthopoulos prides himself on being a man of his word.

sam - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#240763) #

Maybe the Tony Gwynn number inducing that goes on in Vegas will rub off and Hech. Wonder if they'll send him back down for the playoff stretch though?

92-93 - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#240767) #

Here's the thing with Hech : other than his recent hot streak, he made very little progress offensively for a guy repeating AA. At a certain point the Jays need to see if he can hit at higher levels even if he hasn't dominated the lower ones because we know his glove is MLB ready. With the way Aaron Hill is playing I wouldn't be opposed to giving Hechavarria the everyday job in September and seeing just how poorly his bat would play at the MLB level. Or at the very least you give him all the starts vs. LHP and see if the way he's handling them in AA would translate up here.

Kasi - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#240769) #

I am surprised the Jays promoted Hech. He had just gotten on a hot streak lately so I figured they'd leave him there the rest of the year so he could build on and sustain that success.

China fan - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#240770) #

It's also possible that the Jays believe his recent hot streak is an indication of an improved approach at the plate. They may see it as not just a streak but a sign of a fundamental improvement in his hitting. They could be wrong, but Hech has been barely 16 months in professional ball and it's possible that he is just now beginning to adjust to North America and to professional baseball.

The promotion to AAA is also reminiscent of Hech's unexpected promotion to AA last season. We thought that his numbers didn't warrant it, and maybe we were right, but it seems that Hech did adjust to AA within a few months. Maybe the aggressive promotion strategy can work with him.

Ducey - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#240771) #

Maybe the aggressive promotion strategy can work with him

Given that he signed for $10 million over 4 years, they are going to move him as quickly as possible.

John Northey - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#240772) #

Hechavarria's career per level...
A+: 193/217/292 509 OPS over 167 PA (Age 21)
AA: 248/286/351 637 OPS over 775 PA (Age 21/22)
AAA: ??? (Age 22)

So he did improve in AA vs A+ but his 2011 stats in AA are worse than his 2010 in AA (33 OPS points lower, decreased in both OBP and Slg). I suspect the Jays view it as they have a 4 year deal in place and don't want to waste all 4 years in the minors. He has burned 2 options already (was put on the 40 man on day 1 thus had to burn one to play in 2010) so a September call-up wouldn't affect those and AA has stated he doesn't worry about service time too much as guys always go back down (see Snider, Travis for an example).

With the big hole at 2B for 2012 Hech would be worth pushing and seeing if he can play defense at a high level mixed with at least early Alfredo Griffin level offense (67 lifetime OPS+, 89 in his rookie season peak of 94 at age 28, 72 OPS+ in his 20's), or John McDonald level (60 OPS+, peak of 93 last year otherwise 75 was his best) thus able to be a backup in 2012. If he is as amazing with the glove as claimed then a 70[Davis 623 OPS] to 80[Patterson 665 OPS] OPS+ could be lived with over the 60 level Hill is at (589 OPS)

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#240773) #

I wonder if this means that we'll see him in a Jays uniform in September?

I think it's a given he'll be here. Not nearly as certain he'll get more than single-digit at bats.

Only way he wouldn't is if he's assigned to the AFL (which I expect he will be) and that presents some conflict.

Given his roster and option status, there's no real reason not to.

I also think that d'Arnaud has a good shot at a September appearance (with the same AFL caveat) since he's got to be added to the 40 this winter (like Drabek last year)

Adding McGowan, Drabek, Snider, d'Arnaud, Hech, and Cooper (and likely Loewen), having already added Thames, Lawrie and Alvarez is going to be prospect-porn heaven.

That requires 3 roster spots (DMG, d'Arnaud and Loewen) and there are two available - but they can outright Tallet easily enough if his injury is sever enough - heck they could put him on the 60 Day when McGowan comes off.

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#240774) #

and about Hech - i don't think this promotion tells us anything about how they view his role in 2012. this is, basically, a "cup of coffee" IMO. Give him a little sample of AAA, see how he adjusts, get more data to evaluate, etc.

I would not be REMOTELY surprised if he opened 2012 back in AA. someone up-thread used the term "repeating AA" but he played less than half a season at AA in 2010 - even now he's at 1 season plus about 20 games besides at that level. I think it's easy to imagine him returning to AA for the first half next year and then, barring disaster, going to AAA for the second half of 2012 and at least half of 2013. Having a 4 year contract doesn't mean he's a free agent at the end of it.

MatO - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#240775) #

I think Hechavaria will be out of options after the 2012 season. Three options. 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Spifficus - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#240776) #

He'd have 4 options, because he won't have 5 years of pro experience at that time.... I think that's how that one works; always a little hazy on it. Either way, he's a 4th option guy.

China fan - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#240777) #

I don't really understand why Hech has burned an option for 2010 already. John says it's because he was added to the 40-man roster in 2010. Is that the reason? If so, does it mean that every minor-leaguer on the 40-man roster is burning options every year? So does this mean that Sierra and Jeroloman and Mastroianni are currently burning one of their option years? I'm confused.

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#240778) #

both the last two points are correct.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-transactions-waiver-trade-deadline-rules-explained-080310

On the other hand, from Opening Day through Sept. 1, the 40-man roster contains, at all times, 15 players who are not on the 25-man active roster. These 15 players are either on the 15-day disabled list or are in the minors on options (that is, after a player is first added to the 40-man roster, he can be "optioned" from the minors to the majors � and vice versa � without his consent during any three separate seasons, so long as those seasons fall within the first five years he�s in the majors).

Anyone in the minors not on the DL who's on the 40 is using an option (with the caveat about 20 days understood)
.
there's nothing in that about the 4th option year but it does exist.

Unless his progress takes a quantum leap, I've been assuming from the get go that Hech would go like this:

2010 - Half in A / Half in AA
2011 - all AA (so this promotion is a bit of a surprise) Sept on major league bench
2012 - half in AA / half in AAA - Sept in Toronto and gets to play some
2013 - in AA at least half the season unless forces promotion, most likely promotes after August 1
2014 - in Toronto for good, given lack of remaining options

(and assuming no trade)

I still think that's a pretty likely scenario.

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#240779) #

and yes, once the contract is up he's just like any other minor league player - if he starts 2013 or 2014 in the majors, that's the first of the six years he has to log in order to be a free agent.

China fan - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#240780) #

Mylegacy - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#240781) #

The dirty little secret about Hech is...

To this old and slightly jaundiced eye - Escobar's range at SS is starting to get seriously narrow. The guy gets everything he touches - but he doesn't touch enough.

We need to keep his bat in the line-up so - I STRONGLY suspect that (depending how his bat shows at AAA) Hech is our starting SS in 2012 - near Gold Glove and iffy batting included. Escobar will have displaced our own little Aaron Hill. Aaron, who will cut a deal agreeing not to accept arbitration, will bring a nice little supplementary first round pick (if such still exists then).

I suspect that before Spring Training is over - Hech's defense will have wowed all in Jay's Land. Hopefully, his bat is at least near MLB ready. Fingers crossed.

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#240782) #

weeeelllll....

IF Esco's personality can be managed through such a transition...and if the Jays are looking around and saying "there's not really a good offensive option available for 2B so if we are going to have an empty bat in the lineup either way then we might as well get a fantastic glove with it..." then i could see that.

The counter-argument would be whether or not you think his hitting will EVER improve - because if you do, don't you normally assume it's more likely to improve in the minors than in the majors?

jgadfly - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#240783) #

I wonder how he (Hechevarria) gets along with Mashore . Last year, he hit .193 in 161 AB's at Dunedin with Mashore as batting coach, then .273 in 253 AB's in New Hampshire under the friendlier approach of Luis Rivera and staff. This year he has hit .235 in 464 AB's, again under Mashore. Perhaps they want to see how he does with Matolla who seems to have a fairly good sucess rate based on how some players have responded with personal best seasons. Also it will be a real litmus test to see how well he has adapted to North American culture. If he can survive the bright lights of Las Vegas, he should be able to acclimate to the high life in Toronto, n'est-ce pas ? ( For those of you who have never been in Toronto that last comment is meant to be read with an abundance of insouciance )

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#240785) #

So for the minor-leaguers on the 40-man roster, they'll be out of options within the next two or three years. I guess the Jays figure that they can decide the fate of those guys by then. Sierra, Jeroloman, Mastroianni, Careno -- the clock is ticking and decisions will have to be made.

Right.

Here are the affected players:

Snider - obviously will be up, non-issue
Hech - already discussed
Cooper - if he's not here or traded by the time he's out of options then he's essentially a Chad Mottola type career
Sierra - might be the tight squeeze here
Mastroianni - probably an OF version of McCoy, really
Jeroloman - not a huge loss if we lose him
McCoy - irrelevant
Walters - ditto
Drabek - as with Snider
Carreno - one assumes he'll get his shot before the clock runs out
Farina - depends on injury in part.

In other words, other than Sierra most of this sorts itself out pretty easily.

bball12 - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#240789) #

This one is a no-brainer.

Mastro is usually the 1st guy they think of when its time to make room for someone.
He is the odd man out - in any situation.

Makes no difference what he does - if someone has to lose his spot - it will be him.

We shall see

I

Jdog - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#240790) #

17th rounder Brady Dragmire signed. Other than reading about him as a great HS running back I can't find any scouting report on the internet. Any word if this is an overslot deal?

Mylegacy - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#240792) #

TamRa

I think this type of "personnel planning" has been anticipated by AA. Specifically, I remember him saying (to paraphrase a tiny bit):... "we'll get the best young guys we can knowing we can't keep them all...some will have to be traded."

I see us doing some two or three "good" prospects for one "very good" prospect trades. We've quality and quantity - we'll get even more "quality."

OFF-TOPIC...

We just got beat two of three by a very mediocre team - ugh. AND - to make matters worse - we're now going to go against three consecutive pitchers - each of whom are BETTER than ANY of our pitchers. Ugh encore.

Gerry - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#240794) #

I don't believe Hech will be a major leaguer to start 2012. His bat needs to develop and it's tough to develop a bat in the major leagues.

Original Ryan - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#240795) #

According to Jonathan Mayo's blog, the Jays aren't going to be signing Tyler Beede. That sucks if it's true.

Thomas - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#240796) #

Kevin Goldstein would disagree.

DaveB - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#240797) #

Hechavarria won't see much of Las Vegas. The 51s play 17 of their next 21 games on the road: 8 games in Nashville and Memphis, a 4-game home series and then 9 games in SLC and Sacramento. I expect he'll rejoin the Fisher Cats for EL playoffs and then get called up. As 92-93 said, it would be great to see him play 10-15 games at 2B.

Mylegacy: I STRONGLY suspect that (depending how his bat shows at AAA) Hech is our starting SS in 2012 .

I share your enthusiasm for the value of Hech's glove and the team's need for better defense in 2012 and beyond, but that's a touch optimistic. I like the idea of a Cuban middle infield though. Let's get Hanley and then trade one of the three in December 2012.

Gerry - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#240798) #

I won't worry until Monday at 11:59. Until then it's all negotiating.

DaveB - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#240800) #

Oops, Hanley's Dominican of course.

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#240801) #

8 games in Nashville and Memphis

they always come to Memphis when i have NO money...

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#240804) #

According to Jonathan Mayo's blog, the Jays aren't going to be signing Tyler Beede. That sucks if it's true.

Beede's last tweet was "5..."

Ten days before that he posted "Fifteen days"

Doesn't seem logical to me to count down to a deadline you have no intention of keeping. i'm gonna wait it out.

Shane - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#240805) #

keithlaw keithlaw Sure it was. Or they are trying to avoid an investigation. "@supermatt1331: @keithlaw sounds like pre draft deal with beede was false"

Marc Hulet - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#240806) #

Mayo does not have the best sources and I definitely see this more of a case where the club and player are trying to play down the pre-draft deals.

TamRa - Thursday, August 11 2011 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#240807) #

We just got beat two of three by a very mediocre team - ugh. AND - to make matters worse - we're now going to go against three consecutive pitchers - each of whom are BETTER than ANY of our pitchers. Ugh encore.

On the other hand - you EXPECT to beat a sub-par offense like Oakland (I actually thought a sweep was a decent possibility) and it didn't happen.

Just as often you EXPECT to get owned by good pitching and THAT doesn't happen. Whatchagonnado?

(Oh, and Santana is not better than Romero OR Morrow IMO)

BlueJayWay - Friday, August 12 2011 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#240821) #

Then again, Oakland has flipped that since the ASB. They've hit extremely well and their pitching has been poor the last month.

bball12 - Friday, August 12 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#240845) #

Well - that didnt take long.

After a very nice start to his August - the Maestro has been rewarded with a demotion to New Hampshire. LOL

Nice.

TamRa - Friday, August 12 2011 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#240847) #

Mastro is an OF version of Emaus (with a better glove) - don't hold your breath on him ever playing for the Jays

bball12 - Friday, August 12 2011 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#240848) #

Emaus - more power - alot less speed - less glove

Agree with you on never playing for the Jays. That is a foregone conclusion at this point.

TamRa - Friday, August 12 2011 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#240850) #

i'm not saying they are comperable in skill set - except in the regard that the Blue Jays don't consider either a particularly useful major leaguer.

To be sure, I had the usual "root for the underdog" emotion for each of them...but they burned me on Emaus and i learned from it.

bball12 - Friday, August 12 2011 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#240851) #

TamRa,

Agree with you again.
I think the only difference is Emaus got a chance - Mastro hasnt.

I hope Mastro will be able to get out of Toronto before its too late for him. They are just playing with him at this point and wasting his time.
I dont agree with you that Emaus is a good comp to Mastro.
Just very different players - and I have seen both play for many years.
(Actually saw Brad when he was a youngster and followed him all the way through).

Its a moot point now- because Lawrie is sensational. He is going to make alot of people happy.
Currently - the best young player - along with Andrew McCutcheon - that I have seen.
(Andrew was sensational even at age 13 - I kid you not.)
Lawrie just needs to calm down defensively. I think he wlll as he is an exceptionally gifted baseball player.

acepinball - Friday, August 12 2011 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#240852) #

"I hope Mastro will be able to get out of Toronto before its too late for him. They are just playing with him at this point and wasting his time."

I'm sure if that's how Mastro feels he will never make the big leagues. His promotions/demotions have been because of his play. Perform like the results of last season and he wouldn't be sent down. He wouldn't have had to look very far to see a teammate get multiple demotions in a season and have to work to get back (Snider, McCoy).

He's got speed and has shown an ability to hit and get on base. Currently, he is the most advanced RH bat OFer on the 40 man. If Moises Sierra passes him, his removal from the 40 man is probably not far behind.

Now if there are a few injuries, and one of them is Rajai Davis, and the Jays chose not to risk losing Loewen after the DL stint, and ultra utility man McCoy is already up, and they needed a RH bat, Mastro probably gets the call to the bigs. Opportunity comes in the most peculiar ways...

dan gordon - Saturday, August 13 2011 @ 02:06 AM EDT (#240859) #

Mastroianni will be 26 in a couple of weeks. He has put up an OPS of about .700 in AA this year, and in the Vegas hitting haven he has managed an OPS of .782. When I saw him in a couple of spring training games he looked like he had a weak swing, and seemed totally overmatched. I think the chance that he has a significant major league career is very close to zero.

Great start in AA by Molina. He's really moved up the chain a long way this year.

Another great game for Marisnik today. 4 for 5 with a HR and 2 SB's. What a fantastic season he's having.

"Defensive whiz, 5'6" Peter Mooney is showing he's not all glove. Started with the Gulf Coast team and was quickly bumped to Bluefield, where he's OPS'ing 1.153.

Good to see some announcements of draft signings. Let's hope they catch a few big fish by Monday night.

bball12 - Saturday, August 13 2011 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#240860) #

I think Tamra put it simply. Maestro just isn't in the jays plans. I am only surprised because if I look at Davis - right hand of whose game is obp, speed and defense I would have expected them to give maestro a shot given Davis low obp and 5x strikeout to walk ratio. Dan wow you really don't like this Guy lol. Let me ask you if I may: how does a Guy with a "weak" swing become an all star at high-a, AA and dominate the venezuelen winter league. How is that possible? And despite a slow start he will have thus season career high in doubles, triples and career best walk to k ratio. 100+ runs scored and 30 sbs despite missing a month on the dl with a bad hamstring. Also he barely played in spring training. You couldn't possibly have seen many at bats because he didn't have many. You sure you aren't john sickels in disguise lol

Spifficus - Saturday, August 13 2011 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#240862) #

I only saw the swing one game, on TV, but I have to agree with Dan; it really looked like Mastrionni would get beat by any fastball over 90 (Jeroloman, too). Now, maybe it was a bad look or maybe he's incredibly short to the ball and makes up for it, or a whole host of other possibilities. Because of that, I wouldn't necessarily discard him. That said, I feel like I saw the same reason he's not high on the Jays' list.

MatO - Saturday, August 13 2011 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#240863) #

I think I saw the same game. When the pitcher figured out that Mastro couldn't catch up with a basic plus fastball he blew him away with it Beware of the small sample size though.

Paul D - Saturday, August 13 2011 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#240864) #

Should Carlos Zambrano be the next guy targeted by the Jays? I looked up his numbers and I was shocked at how good he'd been up to this year, I had t his idea that his best years were well behind him.

hypobole - Saturday, August 13 2011 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#240868) #

Should Carlos Zambrano be the next guy targeted by the Jays?

he should not be targeted by the Jays and will not be targeted by the Jays. The only team that may target him is the Atlanta Braves with a fastball at his head.

bball12 - Saturday, August 13 2011 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#240869) #

Mastro's weakness is actually off speed stuff. Not fastballs.

Tamra - final thought on this move - it does make sense to bring him down to AA as the Cats are in the hunt for a title this year.
It benefits the organization - I think - to bring him down and try to help them win a title.
They have great fans and great support - they deserve it. And it would also be great for Mashore and Sal - two great baseball guys and two really nice guys as well.

As for Mastro - it hurts him - but at this point it probably makes no difference anyway. Hopefully he will enjoy himself and help the exciting young prospects on that team bring a ring home..
Any way - enough of Mastro - as Dan said - he's 25 soon to be 26 and in AA - so I guess he's finished in Toronto.

Changing the topic a bit - I hope you dont mind as I am not a regular participant here - but do read and enjoy the site immensely.

The most encouraging thing I have seen about the Blue Jays is AA.

This young man combines business shrewdness, baseball knowledge and a willingness to look deeper than most GM's
It is refreshing to me. His acquisition of Escobar and Lawrie is just phenomenal. And Gose too.
I think the Rasmus signing also has alot of potential - as long as he can gain some consistency in his game.

IMO - AA does not view the game as a mathematical equation to be solved.
There is much more to the game than statistics - and we all know how numbers can be manipulated to make just about any case.

A perfect example of this would be Corey Patterson.
If you looked solely at his numbers - you would probably say he is a tad below average - or maybe flatly below average as a player.

Then when you see him play - you realize there is much more to it than the numbers.
Balls not gotten too - routes from another planet - and confusion on the basepaths.
None of that shows up in the numbers. But it hurts bad and it loses games.

Same as Rivera - it actually physically hurt to watch these guys play.
And you cannot afford that stuff anywhere - most especially the AL East.

AA is - in relatively short order - building a contender IMO.
Like the Yankees - and the Red Sox to name a few - he still needs a Brett Gardner/Jacoby Ellsbury type - or two.

When he gets a few - watch out. - the Blue Jays will be there.

Seeing him move away from the Bangball style of Cito and past management is very very refreshing
You just dont win titles with that approach. You need to do more than bang home runs.
You need defense -and you need aggressive baserunning .You need the willingness to take a walk.

AA is putting it all together - youth and vets - balance - power - speed. - and baseball smarts.

IMO again - you can really start to feel the momentum this team is building.

Sorry for the long post - and I am sure that most of you being devoted Blue Jays fans know all this already - but - what the heck - I figured I would throw it out there - and hopefully not get thrown off of this site. LOL

acepinball - Thursday, August 25 2011 @ 02:32 AM EDT (#242225) #

Shameless self-promotion post:

I feel like I totally called the Maestro promotion.

A So-So Night with Surprisingly Little Pitching | 78 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.