Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

One of the youngest (read: born during the strike year) Jays minor-leaguers earned the first star as the farm went 4-2.

Las Vegas 2 at Tacoma 4

Hey, Las Vegas can't always score a ton of runs. They can, apparently, always produce a lot of base-runners though. The 51s accumulated 10 hits and three walks but were only able to turn those into a pair of runs against Erasmo Ramirez and the Rainier Wolfcastles (band name?). You could say the base-runners really got erasemoed!

Chad Beck, getting just the second AAA start of his career, struggled with his command, walking five over his 5.2 innings. He also left some pitches in the zone, giving up seven hits and all those base-runners led to four runs. Winston Abreu and Sean Henn kept it close but the usually-prolific offense couldn't muster a comeback.

Darin Mastroianni did his thing, singling thrice and stealing a base, and David Cooper did his, singling and walking while not striking out. Brett Lawrie was 0-4.

New Hampshire - no game scheduled

St. Lucie 1 at Dunedin 9 (7 innings)

Just a good old-fashioned blowout. The D-Jays must've been inspired by José Bautista and Edwin Encarnación's fishing haul.

Dunedin got homers from Ryan Goins (#3), Brad Glenn (#20) and Brian Van Kirk (#10) and a solid performance from Andrew Liebel (6 IP, 1 ER) to seal the victory. Van Kirk added two singles for the only three-hit day, but most of the lineup got in on the action - only Sean Ochinko and Jon Talley didn't tally a base knock.

Lake County 6 at Lansing 3

Lansing got on the board early by scoring two runs in the bottom of the first, but Tyler Powell, getting just his second start of the season, couldn't hold the lead. The righty allowed six runs while retiring just seven batters, and though the bullpen did an admirable job (particularly Sam Strickland: 4.2 IP, 1 H 4 K) keeping the Captains to just those six runs, the offense didn't have much left in the tank.

Torontonian Marcus Knecht led the offense with a single and a triple and two RBIs, while Carlos Perez and Jake Marisnick walked twice apiece and scored all three runs between them.

Vancouver - no game scheduled

Bluefield 4 at Kingsport 3

Bluefield and Kingsport combined for 25 hits but were inefficient with those hits, combining for a mark of 6-32 with RISP, so this game only featured seven runs. Fortunately, Bluefield came out on the right end of a 4-3 score thanks in part to out-walking their opponents 5-1 and some fine bullpen work from Myles "Robert" Duvall (2 IP, 1 H, 2 K) and Ian Kadish (1 IP, 2 H, 2 K).

Center fielder Kevin Pillar and right fielder Eli Boike set the tone at the plate, each smacking two hits while walking once. Gustavo Pierre watch: 1-1, BB.

The start went to Ajay (which comes from Andrew Jay, seriously) Meyer, who hurled four innings and allowed two unearned runs while K'ing five.

GCL Braves 1 at GCL Jays 7

Perhaps inspired by their state-al (how do you say provincial for the USA?) counterparts, the GCL Jays beat up on the Braves, coming out with an easy 7-1 victory. 1994-born(!) Adonys Cardona was excellent in hurling four innings of two-hit ball, allowing just an unearned run and striking out six, and the bullpen was just as good in shutting out the G-Braves the rest of the way.

On offense, well, where to begin? Eric Arce had three hits including a triple and drove in two, Yudelmis Hernandez homered and walked, and Ronald Melendez singled, doubled and drove in two. Every regular reached base at least once.

DSL Jays 5 at DSL Tigers 3

Three Stars!
3. Brian Van Kirk - 3 hits, HR
2. Andrew Liebel - 6 IP, 1 ER
1. Adonys Cardona, 4 IP, 0 ER, 6 K

More Stuff!

Hitters and Pitchers of the week. In the latter, Mitchell Taylor of Bluefield was honoured for his six-inning one-hitter with nine strikeouts. John Parker:

1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 G, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 HBP, 2 BB, 9 K
The left-handed Taylor has given up just four runs on 18 hits in his last 26 2/3 innings, capped by his six one-hit frames at Burlington on Friday night. Both the six innings and nine strikeouts were high marks in his brief eight-game pro career. The 19-year-old allowed just two Royals to reach second base as the Blue Jays won, 7-1, in 11 innings.

The awesome Minors Moniker Madness is back. Baby Jays represented include The Great Balbino and Callix Crabbe. Favourites (according to yours truly) include Bob Stumpo, Rougned Odor, Jetsy Extrano, Taiwan Easterling, Michael Goodnight, Cameron Greathouse and Junior Lake.

Posted by Dave Rutt on Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 01:46 AM EDT.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

mathesond - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:44 AM EDT (#239890) #

Statal is the word you're looking for

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#239893) #

Is it just me, or have all the Yankees' top prospects taken a step backward?

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#239894) #

I predict that the Mets (JP) will select Andrew Liebel during the Rule V draft in December

I think today is day 10 for JO-JO - He might go unclaimed & remain in the org. to annoy posters and entice AA.

A question for Marc Hulet / Gerry - Any chance that Sam Dyson (4th RD. 2010) whom I think had his surgery in November gets back on the mound before the season ends or maybe the AFL? Also, is Sweeney injured again or did the Jays just pull him because of his awful season to work on his hitting?

Dave Rutt - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#239897) #

Did not know that was a word, thanks mathesond!

Hodgie - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#239898) #

I was wondering this too Mike. Montero, Sanchez, Romine, Betances, Banuelos and Brackman have all taken a step back this season. For much of the season I have marvelled at how the Yankee hype machine has ensured a much higher regard for Banuelos and Betances than one Henderson Alvarez but it only struck me lately how poorly their top prospects are doing across the board. Be thankful for small miracles I guess.

PeteMoss - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#239899) #

Based on the current projected Elias rankings on MLB Trade Rumors - the Jays could receive comp picks for the following players if they are offered and decline arbitration:

Jose Molina - B
Aaron Hill - B
Jon Rauch - B
Frank Francisco - B

Edwin Encarnation and Shaun Camp still have a shot at moving up to a B ranking but are currently on the outside. Molina is 'barely' a B, so he could fall as well.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#239901) #

That is my opinion too, Hodgie. The Yankees appear to me to be beatable. Their success this season has been built on a thin foundation, and there isn't much there to shore it up in the short-term.

There is a certain advantage to calling up Lawrie now to set the stage for a run at them in 2012.

China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#239904) #

I don't pretend to understand the draft-pick-accumulating genius of Alex Anthopoulos, but I'll be surprised if he manages to collect a comp pick for any of his potential free agents this year. Any of those guys, offered arbitration, would probably accept it. None of them seem to be in the Scott Downs category of someone who could do better on the open market. I assume, also, that this was one reason for his willingness to trade Jason Frasor. (Although I realize that Frasor would probably be in the "A" category.)

sam - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#239905) #

Ya I think all those guys accept arb

aaforpm - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#239906) #

Even though I think all of these guys may accept arb, I do appreciate the fact that some of their contracts were structured in a manner that would discourage it. The fact that AA gave Rauch and Encarnacion contracts that guarantee them a certain amount of money for 1 year, in the form of a base salary for 2011 and a buyout for 2012, means that he can buyout their options, pay them the minimum sum that they knew that they would make for 2011 if the contract wasn't extended into 2012, all the meanwhile have their arbitration-derived salary for next year based on their lower base for 2011 - meaning that they would probably receive less in arbitration than if AA had simply guaranteed them a 2011 salary that equated to the salary they actually received plus their buyout.

ayjackson - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#239907) #

Could see Hill accepting, but not the other three. They'll want to find guaranteed contracts for 2012 somewhere.

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#239908) #

Often, especially with veterans some FO have a handshake agreement with the player's agent regarding the player not accepting arbit. for type B status since they can then sign with another team with no draft pick loss for that team .

China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#239909) #

There's some interesting analysis by John Lott today on the question of how to get Brett Lawrie into the Jays lineup. He digs up an interesting comment from John Farrell, who has apparently expressed a preference for getting Lawrie into the lineup in August, before the September dilution of competition. So, how to make room for Lawrie? One way is to trade Encarnacion, and Lott says he is a "prime candidate" to be traded in a waiver deal this month because of his modest salary and his very strong performance over the past 18 days -- perfect bait for a contending team that needs a bit of extra power for the playoff drive. I agree with Lott -- it's very likely that Anthopoulos is burning up the phone lines as we speak, trying to extract the best possible deal for EE from a playoff contender.

If Encarnacion cannot be traded, Lott says it is "likely" that Snider or Thames would be sent to the minors until the rosters expand in September. He doesn't mention another option: DFA-ing Mark Teahan. But in view of Teahan's expensive salary for 2012, it's more likely that Anthopoulos will try to boost his value before trading him, similar to the recent Rivera deal. (However, we still don't know if that tactic succeeded in the Rivera case -- we don't know the PTBNL, if any, who is being sent to the Jays for Rivera. Quite arguably that tactic does not work very well.)

So the question could be: Snider or Thames, which one stays? Both have been equally mediocre in recent weeks, but Thames overall has much better numbers on the season (both in AAA and in the majors). Note also that the Jays benched Snider for the last two games against left-handed pitchers. Lott cites a very interesting quote from Farrell which I hadn't seen before: “When you bring multiple players [to the big leagues] that have similar skills and similar ability, ultimately performance wins out.” Farrell said this when he was asked why Snider was benched and Thames was playing. It's certainly a broad hint that Thames is winning the battle against Snider so far.

Of course there will be screams of outrage if Snider is demoted again. But it's not necessarily the worst approach for a 23-year-old who still hasn't shown any consistency in the major leagues. If he is being benched against LHP in the majors, maybe he needs more time in AAA to learn how to hit LHP. At the age of 23, he still has time to learn. No matter how great our hopes and dreams about Snider, ultimately he is still a prospect who needs to be developed properly. I'm still not convinced that he will automatically become a consistent major-leaguer if he is given 600 plate appearances in the major leagues every year. He's already had 864 plate appearances in the majors and he is still struggling (aside from occasional hot streaks).

Here's the Lott article: http://sports.nationalpost.com/2011/08/02/lawrie-looks-close-to-a-jays-call-up/

greenfrog - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#239910) #

Sickels' review of the Jays' pre-season top 20 prospects is up:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/8/2/2310442/toronto-blue-jays-2011-top-20-pre-season-prospects-in-review#storyjump

The final verdict? "Well, I don't see how Blue Jays fans can be anything but happy. Even with Drabek being a disappointment, there is a lot more good than bad here, headlined by Lawrie and Thames, and there is more pitching on the way up."

I think most fans would agree with that assessment.

hypobole - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#239911) #

I can't even see the Jays offering arbitration to Hill. Simply the fact we played him every day would be enough for an arbitrator to give him a raise, and I don't think AA believes he's worth $5 million plus. As for the other 3, I'm pretty sure arb will be offered and refused. Rauch and Francisco may well have handshake agreements to turn it down if they end up as Type B, and Molina, given the dearth of competent catchers, should be able to get a better deal on the open market than the raise over his current $1 million salary he would get through the arbitration process.

China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#239912) #

.....They'll want to find guaranteed contracts for 2012 somewhere.....

Arbitration awards are not guaranteed? I've seen occasional comments suggesting that a player with an arbitration-awarded salary can be dumped in the early months of the season for a small fraction of his arbitration salary, but I've never seen a confirmation that this is true. And does it actually happen in reality? Are there many examples? Is this something that players worry about?

92-93 - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#239913) #

If you dump the player more than 15 days before the season starts (so usually prior to March 15th) you're only on hook for 1/6th of his salary.

China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#239914) #

Are there many examples of players accepting arbitration and then being dumped? In the case of Jon Rauch, for example, the Jays would have to offer him arbitration, have him accept it, then acquire another good reliever to replace him, and then pay $660,000 to Rauch (if his arbitration award is $4-million) to make him go away. It doesn't seem like a very probable chain of events. Would Rauch decline arbitration because of a fear of this scenario?

More likely is the "handshake agreement" scenario, as others have suggested.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#239915) #

Would Encarnacion make it through waivers? If he's good enough for a contending team, you'd think he'd be good enough for anyone else, and his salary for 2012 ($3.5 million) is hardly prohibitive.

hypobole - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#239916) #

Didn't JPR dump Reed Johnson after his arbitration win?

hypobole - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#239917) #

Checked out Sickels Top 20 (actually 24) update. What I found amazing is that only 2 of the top 7 on his list have played up to expectations (Lawrie and McGuire), yet the system as a whole has been a tremendous success.

China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#239918) #

Ryan Day -- you're absolutely right, it might not be a contending team that claims Encarnacion on waivers. It could be any team that needs a DH or 1B or (lord help them) a 3B for next season. But if any team puts in a waiver claim for Encarnacion, you'd have to think that AA is working out a trade deal. Encarnacion is blocking prospects on the Jays, and presumably he doesn't figure in the long-term plans of the team, except possibly as a bench player -- or maybe as insurance if Thames or Snider fail to develop into solid major-leaguers by next season.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#239920) #

There is no room for Encarnacion and Teahen in 2012. I'd choose Encarnacion. He is a useful part-time player, and exactly the kind of player that this team will need on its bench if it intends to compete.

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#239922) #

Well, on ability alone most would choose EE over teahen - however, unless you can move Teahen's 5.5 mil, you will be paying 8.5m to keep EE(3m) over Teahen (assuming you DFA Teahen) - that's just not good value - Also, I don't think you can assume the team will contend in 2012, as AA has said (& I agree), the team will tell him when it's ready to contend - what he has to do is keep adding quality assets and eventually they should contend but I don't think you can just decide 2012 is when the Jays will contend - see 2006/7 Jays /2011 cubs etc.

TheBunk - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#239923) #

Shouldn't be too hard to get Molina to turn down arb. The organization can inform him that Arencibia will be the #1 catcher with D'Arnaud being brought up as the back up. Let Molina know that he'd be coming back as a third catcher.

It's pretty much the same thing they did with Olivo since they had Molina already under contract and Arencibia poised to get the starting position.

TamRa - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#239924) #

On Teahan - it might well be that even if he's DFA'd, if his agent doesn't think he has a clear shot at getting picked up this month he would accept the assignment with the understanding he'd be called back in September...?

I'm not sure how such machinations would work out.

China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#239925) #

One interesting question about Teahen is whether the Jays would DFA him on the basis of his career stats and the scouting reports -- without taking a protracted look at him in a Jays uniform. Teahen hasn't had a decent season since 2007, his numbers have been in steady decline since the age of 25, and he's been traded before, so it's hard to imagine that the "change of scenery" theory could help him at this stage of his career. Yet conventional wisdom, among baseball managers, seems to favor the option of giving everyone a fair shake before they are dumped, especially when their salary is high. Even Juan Rivera was given 275 plate appearances in a Jays uniform before Anthopoulos wearied of him. (Ironically enough, he's now hitting .306 for the Dodgers.) I'm not saying that I would agree with keeping Teahen on the team -- in fact I probably disagree with it -- but I suspect that the Jays aren't ruthless enough to dump him immediately.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#239926) #

Well, on ability alone most would choose EE over teahen - however, unless you can move Teahen's 5.5 mil, you will be paying 8.5m to keep EE(3m) over Teahen (assuming you DFA Teahen) - that's just not good value

You are paying 5.5 million for Teahen regardless. It's a sunk cost. If it makes the club feel better, it should simply divide that amount over the period of Rasmus' stay in Toronto and treat it as part of Rasmus' salary. That is in fact why the money is being paid.

The misguided effort to extract surplus value from the downtrodden is a losing game in the AL East, and detracts from Anthopoulos' other fine efforts.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#239927) #

I don't know if anyone is ruthless enough to DFA a player they just acquired. How often does that happen?

I'd guess he at least sticks around until the offseason. He's only a roster impediment until September, so it doesn't hurt too much to try and take a look at him for a while and see if anything can be done with him, or if any team can be convinced to take at least some of his salary. (As part of another trade, for example)

China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#239928) #

Speaking of the downtrodden: Jo Jo Reyes has reportedly been claimed by the Orioles today.

Gwyn - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#239929) #

The O's have claimed Jo-Jo on waivers according to @MLBDepthCharts.

TamRa - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#239930) #

seems kinda fitting, eh?

TamRa - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#239931) #

I don't know if anyone is ruthless enough to DFA a player they just acquired. How often does that happen?

I'm not sure how often - I have a lousy memory for specific examples - but I'm pretty sure it HAS happened from time to time.

TamRa - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#239933) #

here's a thought - the Ranger's just DFA'd Arthur Rhodes - what about a straight up swap and we kick in some money on Teahen next year?

We could use a lefty, Rhodes makes too much but so does Teahan and a pitcher doesn't block Lawrie.

Of course, there might be other DFA guys out there this would work with too

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#239934) #

Tam, interesting, I will ask Jamey Newberg what he thinks of this and report back.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#239935) #

I don't get the hesitation in DFAing Teahen.

The chances that he can play well enough at any point to get us out of that contract is pretty much zero. The chances that he plays well enough to get us a C prospect if we eat all of his remaining salary is a little bit better than zero (but not much), and the upside of even getting that C prospect isn't exactly exciting.

Are we really going to make our team worse for the next season and a half (i.e. by keeping him instead of EE) just on the off chance we might save a couple of mil or land ourselves a C prospect down the road?

that really doesn't make any sense to me.

hypobole - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#239936) #

The O's have claimed Jo-Jo on waivers according to @MLBDepthCharts. Zach Britton's team record of 17 total runs allowed in consecutive sub 1 inning starts may not be safe after all.

Ron - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#239938) #

Looks like the Reds had discussions about trading Joey Votto to the Jays for Joey Bats.
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/08/01/were-the-reds-working-on-something-big/

I wouldn't trade Bats for Votto in a challenge trade but I would think long and hard if it was for King Felix.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#239939) #

Jamey's (very quick) response:

More likely scenario s a Rhodes trade where we kick some money in and get a mid-level prospect not on the 40-man roster in return. Not sure Teahen fits here.

Matthew E - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#239941) #

The O's have claimed Jo-Jo on waivers

The Jays' revenge on the Orioles for 1983 continues.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#239942) #

Good answer. Teahen doesn't fit here either.

92-93 - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#239946) #

I was surprised by how large Mark Teahen when I saw him over the weekend. If you had to throw a comp on that body it would be Troy Glaus.

Teahen was presumably on the first list of 7 names AA put on waivers, so let's see if he rejects a minor league assignment before casting him off. Having the depth in Vegas can't hurt and you're paying him anyway.

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#239949) #

Here's my dream scenario. Yes, it has some flaws (don't they all?), but..

DFA Teahen - just live with it.
Move Lawrie back to 2nd (yes, it's a bit of a pain, but...), DFA Hill, or make him your super-sub for the rest of the year.

Lineup:
Escobar
Rasmus
Bautista
Lind
Encarnacion
Thames
Lawrie
Snider
Arencibia

Bench:
Davis
Hill/McDonald
Molina

Now AA just needs to worry about pitching for 2012...

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#239952) #

Another of our brilliant 1st round picks bit the dust again today - Tigers DFA'd Purcey - hope he ends up with the Mets

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#239953) #

I wonder who's had the better big league career - Adams, Purcey or Jackson?

92-93 - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#239955) #

The answer is Romero, Snider, Cecil, or Arencibia.

jgadfly - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#239956) #

Anybody else surprised at some of the defensive plays that EE has made at first and third in the last week ... seems to be acquiring some of his fishing buddie's confidence. One of his throws from 3rd that he 'rifled' to 1st took me aback and reminded me of Bautista ... scary but nice !

sam - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#239962) #

By the way, has the Matt Dean potential signing been confirmed the same way Dickie Thon was confirmed last year? The fellow over at Perfect Game who broke the Jacob Anderson signing is saying that he is hearing that Daniel Norris is heading to college. That would be a bummer.

sduguid - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#239963) #

I've heard that quite a number of scouts have said Lawrie is not suited to 2nd base. Given that, I don't see why you would move him back there...under any circumstances. That would just be messing him around and it isn't needed - keep him at 3rd and maybe move him to the outfield eventually when it warrants that.

Gerry - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#239964) #

If you recall from last year, a lot of deadline signings are based on negotiations on the last day. Until then no-one knows. Norris says he is going to college to increase his price. You will only know on August 15th when the player looks at the offer and says yes or no.

Sano - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#239965) #

Wilner keeps insisting that Lawrie->2B is not going to happen. Apparently the Jays moved him to 3B because he couldn't handle 2B.

TamRa - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#239966) #

I wonder who's had the better big league career - Adams, Purcey or Jackson?

By B-R WAR-

Adams: -0.2
Jackson: -0.6
Purcey: -0.7

On the other hand, both Adams and Purcey have been slightly on the plus side twice- Jackson never has.

Of course we could discuss Jason Place, Ryan Dent, Abe Alvarez and Craig Hansen too...even the smart ones fail some of the time.

(and don't get me started on Brian Cashman...)

dan gordon - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#239970) #

Based on reports that Lawrie is unlikely to be an acceptable defender at 2B, I wouldn't monkey around with moving him there. Shifting players in that direction on the defensive spectrum usually turns out badly. Also, 2nd basemen typically have shorter careers than guys who play OF, 1B or 3B. Injury risk is high at 2B. Same thing for catchers. I remember when Delgado was coming up through the system a few people were saying that he was such a good hitter, the Jays should move him to 1B to prolong his career. Eventually they did, although his defense at C might have been the prime consideration for doing so. Buster Posey is a good example. Great young hitter - who knows what this injury is going to do to him. Of course, on the other hand, what a great boost it is to your offense if you have a guy who can really pound the ball at C.

Bill James did a couple of great studies looking at the development and careers of players at various positions. He compared guys who hit at an equivalent level as rookies and at the same age, and then compared how they fared the rest of their careers. The catchers and 2nd basemen really had much weaker and shorter careers than the other players, even though their starting points were equivalent.

China fan - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#239971) #

In other news, Gregor Chisholm is tweeting that McGowan will make one more start for Dunedin and then move up to New Hampshire. Sounds encouraging, but doesn't his 30-day rehab period expire soon? After he does his 7 days back on the DL, would he return to New Hampshire or would he more likely need to start over again in Dunedin?

Jonny German - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#239972) #

The misguided effort to extract surplus value from the downtrodden is a losing game in the AL East, and detracts from Anthopoulos' other fine efforts.

Very well put. If Jays management is at all serious about eventually competing, Teahen will not be on the 2012 roster. Mike McCoy, to name just one readily available player, is strictly superior to Teahen. Sunk costs are sunk. Ditch Teahen now so Lawrie can start settling in.

Jonny German - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#239973) #

Sounds encouraging, but doesn't [McGowan's] 30-day rehab period expire soon?

Mike Wilner believes the Jays will exploit a loophole - place McGowan on the 7-day minor league DL, then start him on another 30-day rehab.

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#239975) #

For what it's worth Norris is in florida for a physical today.

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#239976) #

Thanks Marc - that's most encouraging

Jonny German - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#239977) #

Further to the discussion of Lawrie, I'm in favour of calling him up immediately (with sunk cost Teahen being DFA). This will, in my mind, have the ripple effect of Bautista to RF, Thames to DH, and Encarnacion to quite a bit of bench time. I am okay with this despite EE playing well lately. The Jays should be planning to compete in 2012, and EE will be a useful player to have around as DH against lefties, pinch-hitter, backup corner infielder. Might as well start him into that role right now so Lawrie can get some solid MLB at-bats under his belt this season and hit the ground running next.

TamRa - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#239978) #

Sounds encouraging, but doesn't his 30-day rehab period expire soon? After he does his 7 days back on the DL, would he return to New Hampshire or would he more likely need to start over again in Dunedin?

McGowan has 10 days between his last startand the one upcoming on Friday and his name doesn't appear on the Dunedin roster so that time off is apparently ongoing now. He wasn't formally on the DL but maybe that's not required.

sam - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#239981) #

Does Clemson have summer workouts in Florida? I hope not. This is most encouraging. Thanks Marc!

CeeBee - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#239982) #

"Further to the discussion of Lawrie, I'm in favour of calling him up immediately (with sunk cost Teahen being DFA). This will, in my mind, have the ripple effect of Bautista to RF, Thames to DH, and Encarnacion to quite a bit of bench time. I am okay with this despite EE playing well lately. The Jays should be planning to compete in 2012, and EE will be a useful player to have around as DH against lefties, pinch-hitter, backup corner infielder. Might as well start him into that role right now so Lawrie can get some solid MLB at-bats under his belt this season and hit the ground running next."

I like this plan. Hope AA does as well.

Ron - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#239983) #

Considering Norris had a physical with the Jays today, I think it's pretty much a lock he signs. The Jays already had at least a framework of an agreement with Beede when he was drafted. One change I want to see in the next CBA isn't hard slotting, but pushing up the signing deadline from August 15th to July 1st at the latest. It's silly that agreements are in place but can't be announced until right up to the deadline because the deals are way overslot. This hurts the player, team, and fans. These players should be playing in the minors by now and some picks might provide a small bump in attendance.

Gerry - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#239985) #

I heard Osuna is working out in Dunedin too.

Kelekin - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#239986) #

Just reading threads around the internet and apparently Jacob Anderson tweeted that his roommate is going to be Derrick Loveless, which implies our 27th rounder has signed as well.

If we managed to sign Beede, Norris, Comer, Stilson, Dean, and Suarez, I'd be the happiest person in the world.

I haven't heard anything on Dwight Smith Jr, Chin, Robson or DeSclafani, but I think the first two are severely over-rated and would definitely prefer to see their money go to make sure these higher ceiling players are locked up.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#239988) #

After reading about this rumour regarding Votto/Bautista I got to wondering. Just what has Yonder Alonso done to be considered a prospect worthy of moving an NL MVP? Particularly when you start comparing his numbers to David Cooper's.

jgadfly - Tuesday, August 02 2011 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#239990) #

RE: McGowan ... I don't know what this means or where things go from here but Fox Sports under the Jays' "Transactions" heading has the following ;

7/26/2011 Dustin McGowan P Recalled From Minors Rehab Assignment

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/team/toronto-blue-jays/transactions/71600

hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#239991) #

Looks like another excellent Justin Nicolino outing for the Canadians: 5 IP 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K. 8/1 GO/FO. His season line now sits at 42 IP, 22 H, 8 R, 5 ER, 11 BB, 56 K. Not sure why he hasn't been moved up to Lansing yet.

Hodgie - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#239992) #

I believe that makes 5 of his 9 starts with 1 hit or less now. With Syndergaard about to join him in the rotation I feel badly for the Appy league hitters.

Hodgie - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#239993) #

...or I would if Vancouver was in the Appy League. I believe I hear my bed calling me now...

mendocino - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:36 AM EDT (#239994) #

Solon’s Derrick Loveless has decided to forgo a baseball scholarship at Iowa and start his pro career right away.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#239998) #

Even Juan Rivera was given 275 plate appearances in a Jays uniform before Anthopoulos wearied of him. (Ironically enough, he's now hitting .306 for the Dodgers.) I'm not saying that I would agree with keeping Teahen on the team -- in fact I probably disagree with it -- but I suspect that the Jays aren't ruthless enough to dump him immediately.

He doesn't mention another option: DFA-ing Mark Teahan. But in view of Teahan's expensive salary for 2012, it's more likely that Anthopoulos will try to boost his value before trading him, similar to the recent Rivera deal. (However, we still don't know if that tactic succeeded in the Rivera case -- we don't know the PTBNL, if any, who is being sent to the Jays for Rivera. Quite arguably that tactic does not work very well.)

Given that the Jays are able to send the Cardinals a plethora of players who show potential to different roles in the other team's perspectives (Dotal as reliever, Scrabble as potential starter and lefty in the bullpen, and Jackson as starter), could the same tactic be used for packaging Teahen and Jo-Jo Reyes to the Astros, who seems to be in rebuilding mode again at this point of the season and in need of veteran presence for the time-being? With Chris Johnson, Wallace being sent to AAA Oklahoma City and calling up of players who never played AAA from AA Corpus Christi, Reyes and Teahen could have been better veteran presence than Jason Michaels for Astros. Reyes could start in Houston and Teahen play part time at 3B, 1B and corner OFs. However, such transaction is appeared to be a Jays' players dump except for getting another two PTBNLs: the Astros seems not to have what the Jays would want and AA is reportedly proactive in pursuing what the Jays needs.

Now with Reyes gone to the O's, could Teahen (and even Nix and Teahen) be simply sent to Astros if the Jays are confident that Teahen would pass waivers ?

Teahen hasn't had a decent season since 2007, his numbers have been in steady decline since the age of 25, and he's been traded before, so it's hard to imagine that the "change of scenery" theory could help him at this stage of his career. Yet conventional wisdom, among baseball managers, seems to favor the option of giving everyone a fair shake before they are dumped, especially when their salary is high.

If the handshake cost 5.5 million in 2012, would trading him to a team in need of veteran more prudent to Jays' plan of competing in 2012 ? Calling up players (IF Jimmy Perades) from AA Corpus Christi who is not playing particular well without letting them going through AAA Oklahoma showed little confidence in general of Astros to players in Oklahoma. So why not flip some Jays' players not in need (Teahen and Nix) to the Astros and get the 5.5 mil off Jays' account ? IMO, it is of less importance if this proposal did go through but I suggest effective use of trade in giving players to another teams: Packaging Teahen and Nix than DFA-ing and trading Juan Rivera. Also, is 5.5 million a worthy risk for the Jays so that Teahen would bounce back like Rivera does now with the Dodgers (Ironically enough, he's now hitting .306 for the Dodgers.) ?

Kasi - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#240000) #

There is no way that the Astros would take Nix and Teahan off of us for nothing. Either we'd have to eat most of the salary or we'd have to give them prospects. Easier to just DFA him.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#240002) #

I think the implication (in the Teahan to the Astros deal) is that the Astros take on those salaries as part of a Wandy swap. They'd still get salary relief, and we could throw in a prospect or two. We'd be adding an arm to stablize the rotation and insure against Drabek stalling.

sam - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#240003) #

I think with Drabek, you let him pitch the rest of the year in the minors. Maybe even hold him out of a start or two because at this point it just seems like he's spinning wheels. At the end of the year, AA, Farrell, and Walton should sit down with him and reaffirm their commitment in him and his ability. Tell him to take some time off, clear his head and be ready to compete for a rotation spot come spring training.

I think they'll also probably ask him to focus on his fastball and curveball command. This year I think he got himself into trouble early with his cutter. It's a dynamite pitch but he couldn't command it and by all reports he seems to have just recently adopted it. It seemed like when the Jays told him to simplify things his fastball command was simply missing.

I really enjoy watching Drabek pitch. I mean, it's frustrating watching him pitch at the moment because he gets angry at himself when he fails to execute and it carries over to the next pitch, but he has that Josh Beckett or Nolan Ryan-type attitude, which is you get a hit off me, the next one is hitting you. I love that, and you can't teach that. I really think he'll get over his current problems and develop into something really special. He needs to slow down right now, take it one start at a time.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#240004) #

re Kasi and whiterasta80 : Teahen and Nix for 13-game loser lefty J. A. Happ, if IMO a trade is indeed to be made: At least the Jays get a piece in the pen with 5.5 Million off the account. Happ's contract is quite cheap: 0.47M.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#240005) #

Also, Happ was a 12-game winner with the Phillies in 2009; his career went downhill in Houston during 2010-2011, so a "change of scenery" is more adaptable to him than Teahen.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#240007) #

"Even Juan Rivera was given 275 plate appearances in a Jays uniform before Anthopoulos wearied of him. (Ironically enough, he's now hitting .306 for the Dodgers.) I'm not saying that I would agree with keeping Teahen on the team -- in fact I probably disagree with it -- but I suspect that the Jays aren't ruthless enough to dump him immediately."

For the record - Juan Rivera has had a much better career than Mark Teahen.

"Another of our brilliant 1st round picks bit the dust again today"

The general negativity around the Jays' drafting always bothers me a bit. Our success rate is pretty darn good.

Romero, Cecil, Snider, Arencibia, Hill are all first round picks from a 5year span between 2003 and 2007, while the likes of McGuire, Cooper, Jenkins, and Syndergaard are all good looking prospects from the first round of the 3 drafts after those.

smcs - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#240008) #

Now with Reyes gone to the O's, could Teahen (and even Nix and Teahen) be simply sent to Astros if the Jays are confident that Teahen would pass waivers ?

Let's think about this for a second. You are saying that not only will the Astros trade for Nix and Teahen, but that they will give up something, and that, in order for them to give up something, they will pass on Teahen on waivers, having already passed on Nix when he was DFA'd? It is a 99% chance that Teahen would clear waivers because he is, in his current incarnation, not a very good baseball player. If someone does happen to put in a waiver claim, Alex Anthopoulos should drive Teahen to the airport himself.

I think the implication (in the Teahan to the Astros deal) is that the Astros take on those salaries as part of a Wandy swap.

This was never actually implicated. As an aside, I think AA's involvement with Wandy Rodriguez (and Ubaldo Jimenez) was to act as a third party in a three team trade, like the Dodgers in the Erik Bedard trade, but, you know, not getting hosed.

Another of our brilliant 1st round picks bit the dust again today

David Purcey is literally the only 1st round draft pick to fail. Screw that guy. JP Ricciardi is a moron for picking him. He clearly should have taken high schoolers like Phil Hughes or Gio Gonzalez (but not like Scott Elbert, Kyle Waldrop, Jay Rainville or Eric Hurley).

slitheringslider - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#240009) #

Ed Wade is dumb and Alex Anthopoulos is a Jedi, but still, come on, Wade is not dumb enough to add payroll to take on 2 negative value player in exchange for a cost control piece with upside. Obviously the Jays should do it if the Astros are that dumb, but no owner would willingly sign off on adding payroll for -WAR veteran presence.

92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#240011) #

The general negativity around the Jays' drafting always bothers me a bit. Our success rate is pretty darn good. David Purcey is literally the only 1st round draft pick to fail.

When David Purcey and Russ Adams are your "failed" first round picks you're drafting pretty damn well.

sam - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#240013) #

I think the criticism of the drafting philosophy is the lack of high impact players. I mean, sure most of those guys made the majors but only Romero and maybe Lind look like players who might win ya a playoff game. Whereas a team like the Red Sox or Braves who have drafted from similar positions but employed a best player available mentality have drafted a few more high impact players across their drafts.

jerjapan - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#240014) #

Sam is completely right about the low ceiling problem. All those unsigned picks in 2009 left a sour taste in a lot of mouths as well, although in hindsight it was a good outcome.

Kevin Ahrens and Zach Jackson have also been total busts out of the first round.

Drafting wasn't JPs biggest weakness, but also not a strength.

Mark - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#240016) #

The best player the Braves have drafted in the first round in the last ten years is the struggling Jason Hayward (Wainwright was 11 years ago).
The best player the Red Sox have drafted in the first round in the last ten years is Ellsbury (with Bard second) and no one else making a significant MLB contribution.
Compared to the Jays who have Hill, Snider, Romero and Arencibia contributing (Hill not so much this year) at the MLB level.

I can't see how the Braves or Red Sox have done a better job drafting in the first round over the Jays.

85bluejay - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#240017) #

I've mentioned before that I think JP was a competent.average GM - My point was regarding the drafting philosophy especially in this division - The failure rate amongst draft picks is high and not especially different between so-called safer,lower ceiling picks and higher ceiling picks (be they high school/college) - the problem is when a lower ceiling pick succeeds, you most often (though not always) get an average everday player while when a higher ceiling prospect succeeds who are much more likely to get an above average star quality player - that's the type of players you need to compete against the beast of the East - in other divisions you may compete with mostly complementary players surrounding a few stars but in our division you will be confined to an also ran.I just think that the previous philosophy left almost no margin for error in this division and therefore was very likely to fail in building a contender ( and of course, we never were able to contend).

85bluejay - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#240020) #

Mark,

Snider was regarded as a high ceiling pick - that's the type of pick I like & you are way off on boston - take a look at their early picks, including the prospects they have used to get V-mart, Gonzalez etc.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#240021) #

The key high impact players drafted by the Red Sox were Pedroia and Youkilis. The knock on these guys when they were drafted was that they were "low-ceiling sabermetric" picks. The Yankees have drafted a whole bunch of "high-ceiling" players early over the last decade; this has not worked out well for them.

The whole debate is tiresome. Yes, pitchers who can throw 95 have a leg up. And yes, players who can run a 4.4 40 and hit the ball out of sight are at a premium. But, there is much more to the game than that.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#240022) #

could Teahen (and even Nix and Teahen) be simply sent to Astros

Nix and perhaps Teahen are replacement level players, or worse. Teams don't go out of their way to acquire such players, even ignoring Teahen's bloated salary.

This has got to be the 5th trade suggestion you have made involving Nix. No one wanted him for free. Why is anyone going to pay anything for him? Let it go. There are many, many players who can perform at his level, and they are virtually freely available.

85bluejay - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#240023) #

Well, when the Jays are hoisting a championship trophy in a few years , I'll take note of that

92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#240026) #

Drafting was a JP strength. Trying to prove otherwise is an exercise in futility.

A player taken in the supplemental rounds that makes the majors is NOT a total bust (Jackson), he's a success.

And calling out Kevin Ahrens, a 22 year old in A+, for being a bust when he was taken in the same round as JP Arencibia and Brett Cecil is really expecting way too much out of your scouting department. Not to mention they really liked d'Arnaud at the time too.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#240032) #

At the time, everyone seemed to love the 2007 high school draftees. Ahrens, Jackson, and Tolisano all made BA's top-10 Jays prospects list a year later. Ahrens ranked higher than Romero and Arencibia, which seems pretty ludicrous now; Jackson and Tolisano ranked higher than Purcey, though they may never reach the heights of his major league career.

85bluejay - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#240039) #

Wow!!! Trying to discuss drafting philosophy as opposed to specific drafts is like hitting your head against the wall - I give up - it's like talking to the Tea Party.

85bluejay - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#240041) #

92-93,

You are correct - JP was a fantastic GM - it's only the Angry & Jealous Gods who prevented his teams from ever contending.I apologise.

92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#240042) #

You can discuss philosophy without irrationally slagging on the previous guy. If you're gaga for Lawrie, thank JP for Marcum, a 3rd rounder from Missouri State.

MatO - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#240044) #

I always find this "high-upside" stuff humorous. Zach Jackson was drafted with the 32nd overall pick. According to BBRef the top 32nd overall pick in history is Mike Magadan. He of the 47 career HR's. A close 2nd was Lee Lacy. Other "stars" include Roger Pavlik and Justin Thompson. Our own John Farrell was also a pretty good pick with a career ERA of 4.56. I don't get it. In 47 years of drafts, haven't teams figured out that you're supposed to draft players with high upsides?

Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#240055) #

Our own John Farrell was also a pretty good pick with a career ERA of 4.56.

The player taken with the pick preceding Farrell was Greg Maddux, so I guess it's possible that the 31st overall pick might have a little upside...

And Tom Glavine went 15 picks later than that....

MatO - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#240057) #

The player taken with the pick preceding Farrell was Greg Maddux, so I guess it's possible that the 31st overall pick might have a little upside...

And Tom Glavine went 15 picks later than that....

A little upside maybe but we all know that soft-tossers don't have high-upside.

bpoz - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#240060) #

What MatO said BUT with a look of distain on the batter's face.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#240066) #

Drafting and getting "real" prospects in your organisation is hard!

The MLB rumour site says the Astros had an independent scout go over their minor league system - the scout said they had five guys that would play in the show. A AAA team, a AA team, a HiA team, a LowA team, a SS team a Rookie team - and between all those guys - the scout figures 5 are good enough to make it to the Show.

bpoz - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#240091) #

Thanks again MatO. It took me a while, but NOW I understand. Its so obvious JoJo Reyes has the higher ceiling than Brad Mills.

jerjapan - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#240098) #

Drafting was a JP strength. Trying to prove otherwise is an exercise in futility.

And calling out Kevin Ahrens, a 22 year old in A+, for being a bust when he was taken in the same round as JP Arencibia and Brett Cecil is really expecting way too much out of your scouting department. Not to mention they really liked d'Arnaud at the time too.

Kevin Ahrens is, thus far, a total bust. My comment was a reply to a previous poster who said that JPs biggest busts were Russ Adams and David Purcey.

JP drafted some quality players, including Marcum. He did not trade Marcum for Lawrie, so we don't need to thank him for that.

Stating your subjective opinion repeatedly and emphatically doesn't make it correct.

92-93 - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#240103) #

It's not subjective, it's been proven many times - the Blue Jays drafted very well under JP Ricciardi.

92-93 - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#240104) #

And no, Kevin Ahrens has not been a total bust. He's 22 and has a .730 OPS at A+. You were probably among the crowd saying Ricky Romero was a bust at the same age with his mediocre results.

Spifficus - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#240105) #

Well, he's at 5 years and hasn't cracked the high-A egg. As long as the tools are still intact, then yes, it's too early to call him a bust. He'd be on the bubble for the 40 man for me, though, and making a player freely available does move the needle closer to bust.

uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#240106) #

The Jays drafted above-average under JP, but "very well" is pushing it. Though if you give him leeway for the policy not to go above slot, then it looks more impressive.

But Ahrens is definitely a bust. Not that it's a big deal - most prospects bust.

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