Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#238908) #

It's good to have Janssen back but I am looking forward to the other shoe dropping more, so that it is easier to give the bullpen shape.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#238909) #

Not quite a roster move, but Snider is getting the start in centre tonight. It'll be interesting to see how far this experiment goes; if he's decent enough to be a backup CF, there'd be no need for Corey Patterson to stick around.

And Bautista is back in the lineup, at DH. Hooray!

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#238910) #

The weird thing is that Pineda has had a small reverse platoon split so far, in a small sample.

Maldoff - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#238911) #

I can't say I'm a fan of this roster move. It leaves the Jays with only 1 lefty in the bullpen (Zep, who has been used more in a late inning role than a LOOGY role). Against a well-balanced team, having more than one lefty is a necessity.

92-93 - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#238913) #

They could have optioned down McCoy if they thought it was imperative to keep Perez in the bullpen. Janssen has been tougher on LHB this year than Perez, and Perez blew it in the two biggest spots he was brought in as a LOOGY, despite his typical platoon splits.

I really tried to focus on Rajai's defense this past weekend at the Dome and was thoroughly unimpressed by his first step reactions and reads. The team has nothing to lose by giving Snider the starts in CF vs. RHP the rest of the way, affording them the opportunity to give Thames/Cooper/Loewen as many looks as possible even after the Lawrie callup pushes Bautista back to RF.

TamRa - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#238914) #

I believe it was Wilner who observed earlier in the year that Janssen basically acted as the second lefty since he's very good against them - but I haven't looked up the splits lately

Ron - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#238915) #

Congrats to Alomar on having his number retired. The celebration on the 31st will only be the 27th time the Jays have honoured him at the Skydome in the past 5 years.

Matthew E - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#238916) #

Perez has been useful and I hope they find room for him.

Not enthusiastic about Alomar's number being retired. As far as I'm concerned, having his number honoured, which the Jays already did, and which he fully deserved, is the same as retiring his number only better because people can still use it. So what's the point of doing it again?

Shane - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#238917) #

I presume that Blue Jays players voted to the HOF will get numbers retired, everyone else gets the Excellence thing. Ya think?

Magpie - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#238918) #

This leaves Seattle and Colorado as the only MLB teams who have never retired a number. Unlike the Jays, both those teams have kept numbers out of circulation. Jo-Jo Reyes has Dave Stieb's number, Rajai Davis has George Bell's. ("Oh, what a fall was there my countrymen.") The Rockies haven't had anyone wear 33 since Larry Walker, and the Mariners have done likewise with 11 (Edgar), 14 (Piniella), 19 (Buhner) and 24 (Griffey.)

Flex - Tuesday, July 19 2011 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#238920) #

Am I the only one who finds the sound on Sportsnet telecasts odd? Particularly the way the mic picks up the sounds at home plate -- bat on ball, ball hitting glove -- they sound a strange combo of muffled and amplified. It's very unsatisfying.

katman - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 03:23 AM EDT (#238921) #

The problem with our relief corps is that I doubt any of them will be moved, since they won't be wanted enough. Which leaves only unpleasant choices of cutting bait and forgetting about any Type B picks, or waiting again before finding our critical info. about players in the system, and doing it in 2012.

So, here's a question: who would you cut bait on in the bullpen? Dotel, who has seen better results when used properly? Rauch, now the closer? Francisco, who has the highest upside? Frasor and Camp might be dealable by August, but can we get value for them equal to the Type B pick? Even if not, is it worth clearing a spot by dealing them for less?

Bauxites, what do you think?

Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#238922) #

It'd be so nice if Rajai Davis was hitting even a little bit, because he's fantastic on the bases. It's amazing to watch a guy steal two bases - and the game itself - when every single person in the stadium knows he's going to be running.

Davis is just one steal behind Brett Gardner for the league lead, which is pretty impressive considering he went down with an ankle injury in the first game of the season.

The_Game - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#238923) #

Perez has a 2.44 FIP/1.52 xFIP against LHP with a 68 GB% overall (good for third in the majors among relievers). He shouldn't be in the minors.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#238924) #

Davis hit all those homers in spring training, but I guess that it was a mirage. He's hitting more balls in the air than ever, but getting poorer results (more pop-ups, fewer homers) with the result that his BABIP is 30 points off his career average. He should be hitting fewer pop-ups with the smaller foul territory in the RC as compared with Oakland.

The Herzog message to Ozzie-hit the freaking ball on the ground or on a line and don't ever pop-up- seems like the right one for Davis. These days, singles hitters don't drive Fords.

Maldoff - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#238925) #

I'd advocate push-ups for Davis if he pops out, like Willie Mays Hayes in Major League!

jerjapan - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#238926) #

Every year Bauxites seem to get overly attached to a journeyman lefty reliever - Carlson, Lewis, Perez. These guys are a dime a dozen and their shelf life is short, demoting Perez - who's minor league numbers are underwhelming - was the right move. Even though some have underwhelmed, the veteran reliever experiment has much more value to the team - in the clubhouse, on the field, in trades, as draft picks.

MatO - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#238927) #

There's a story on LOOGY's in today's Toronto Star with a great picture of Randy Choate on the front page of the Sports section. The picture pretty much explains why pitchers get Tommy John surgery. Amazing and scary at the same time. The story and picture are in the print version of the paper. Does not appear to be online as of yet.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#238928) #

It'd be so nice if Rajai Davis was hitting even a little bit, because he's fantastic on the bases. It's amazing to watch a guy steal two bases - and the game itself - when every single person in the stadium knows he's going to be running.

Davis is just one steal behind Brett Gardner for the league lead, which is pretty impressive considering he went down with an ankle injury in the first game of the season.

It's even more impressive considering Rajai's obp is .263. Could you imagine if the guy could consistently onbase .363?

Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#238930) #

At the moment, I have a rather difficult time imagining Davis with a .363 OBP. But even his career .319 rate would probably have netted him another 5-10 steals.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#238932) #

BBRef tells an interesting tale about Davis. His career slash line on ground balls is .312/.312/.345, and on fly balls .147/.143/.300. There aren't too many players who have a higher slugging percentage on ground balls than fly balls.

In his career, Davis has been a successful bunter. This year, he's 1-6 in that department. The groundskeeper at the RC might be able to help him out. Getting the third baseman drawn in is a pretty important thing for him.

Flex - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#238933) #

Jim Fanning was filling in for Ashby on the radio over the weekend, and he was adamant that Davis should be hitting more ground balls and using his speed. Why on earth can't Murphy get him to do this? It seems so blatantly obvious. And Davis doesn�t seem like a stupid man. Can't somebody simply explain to him that if he hits more ground balls he'll make $2million more a year?

Chuck - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#238935) #

Could you imagine if the guy could consistently onbase .363?

Could you imagine the A's having kept him and not having given him away for nothing?

smcs - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#238936) #

Because if he hits more home runs he can make an extra $3MM each season.

Shane - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#238937) #

Because if he hits more home runs he can make an extra $3MM each season.

Well, if he continues to try to be something he can't ever be, I guess he prefers the MLB minimum then. Next.

92-93 - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#238941) #

Davis' lack of adjustments might be attributed to Dwayne Murphy, who has done nothing (results-wise) to help a hitter on this team who wasn't named Jose Bautista. Every other hitter has remained stagnant or regressed under Murphy's watch. Could be time for Farrell to choose himself a hitting coach.

If Arencibia is playing with serious hand injuries he's making a silly decision and is costing the team production. Since June 10th he's hitting .136/.208/.227, and with Jose Molina being a borderline Type B it makes plenty of sense for the team to DL Arencibia and let him get back to 100%.

Game one of Snider starting in CF has to be considered a big success. Makes AAs job much easier if CF for 2012 can be solved internally.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#238943) #

You could argue that Murphy has helped Lind get back on track after a horrific 2010 campaign. Escobar is having a brilliant 2011. Encarnacion has bounced back in June and July (although that may just be the result of his natural streakiness). Murphy hasn't managed to turn Thames into a 240/280/420 hitter - not yet, anyway. So there are a few bright spots.

Of course, there is lots of carnage, too (Hill and Davis, for example). I tend to think that Hill's decline is likely related to his concussion and prolonged layoff in 2008. Justin Morneau may be dealing with the same problem. It makes sense to me that even a slight decrease in reaction time could spell the demise of a MLB hitter.

ayjackson - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#238944) #

Didn't Hill hit 36 homeruns in 2009?

Chuck - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#238945) #

I tend to think that Hill's decline is likely related to his concussion and prolonged layoff in 2008.

As has often been cited, his big 2009 was post-concussion.

MatO - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#238946) #

According to Lind, he fixed his problems over the winter in Indiana with his childhood hitting instructor, Mike Shirley, a scout for the White Sox.

92-93 - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#238947) #

You don't get credit for putting a train back on the tracks if you supervise its derailment. And Lind has been terrible recently to the point where his 2011 OPS is now 80 points lower than his 2009 one. Until last week Escobar was hitting at his career level and he's 28 so a slight improvement can be expected. Encarnacion's career OPS has dropped around 40 points under Murphy's watch as EE has entered his prime.

Heck, if you believe the stories that Bautista's swing change started in Sept 2009 and were spearheaded by Clarence and Vernon, Murphy has done nothing but drag down the team's offensive development.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#238948) #

I don't know. The club outperformed all reasonable offensive expectations in 2010, and has somewhat underperformed in 2011. Offence is down throughout baseball, so you cannot use the usual anticipated age progression to measure realistic progressions. I would be hesitant to evaluate Murphy's work in the way that 92-93 is suggesting.

I do know that Davis has taken a step backward for pretty obvious reasons, and I sure would like someone (Murphy, Farrell, Bautista, Alan Ashby, or BJ Birdy) to set him straight.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#238949) #

I'm aware that Hill's strong 2009 season followed his concussion and have commented on this apparent anomaly in a previous thread. But head injuries are weird and each one is unique. We don't know much about how they affect people over time. In 2010, he clearly stopped being able to make adjustments. Was this a physical problem, a mental problem, a coaching problem? It's hard to say, but I tend to think that the concussion may have had something to do with it.

chips - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#238950) #

I respectfully disagree. Hill appears to have lost confidence at the plate. You can see it in his demeanor. He can't lay off the outside sliders and watches the fat pitches in for a looking strike. In his banner year (Post-Concussion) Hill was disciplined enough to recognize the outside slider and lay off it and found himself in way more hitter"s counts. Now he is constantly behind in the count. This is a classic example of what happens to hitters who lose confidence in their hitting ability.

sam - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#238951) #

I don't think Dwayne Murphy is a bad hitting coach, however, I think he's probably not a good fit for what the Jays are trying to do.

Jose Bautista credits Murphy with a lot of his success and Murphy should be commended for that. Last year, with Murphy's help, a lot of hitters had excellent years. With all that being said, it seems like Murphy is a real proponent of the long-ball or go home type theory. I think with our current squad and the guys coming through I don't know if his approach to hitting jives with what Farrell wants the team to be. I mean you're not going to turn Rajai Davis into Jose Bautista, so I don't know.

I think this offseason they'll need to make a decision with Murphy. There'll be a few hitters that will be coming up in the next year or two that will hopefully factor into the team's long term plans and you'll want some continuity at that position. I would think the Jays might consider Chad Mottola.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#238952) #

Yeah, so, the Jays offense is top-5 in baseball, in a season where everyone predicted they'd stink.

I'd say the hitting coach's job is safe.

Kasi - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#238953) #

I don't see the need to worry that much about our offense. Yes it is inconsistent within, and there is room for improvement of course. But we have scored the 4th most runs in the majors. Our problem is starting pitching and defense and will remain that for the rest of the season and likely into next. If anything we have hitters closer to being promoted than hitters. (our two most advanced prospects in the minors are Lawrie and D'Arnaud, both hitters)

Kasi - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#238954) #

Hitters closer to being promoted than pitchers I mean.

92-93 - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#238955) #

If you're going to use the team's runs scored total to support Murphy you must think Walton is doing a terrible job.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#238956) #

I'd think the Jays will look at two things for hitting & pitching coaches.

1) how did the team do overall
2) how did individuals do overall

You can have the team do well without individuals doing well. It all depends on the level of talent you started out with.

Right now if I was a coach on this team I'd be nervous about 2012 as managers normally bring in their own guys thus anyone who was here in 2010 who doesn't appear to outperform expectations will be at risk.

DaveB - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#238957) #

Davis should be hitting more ground balls and using his speed. Why on earth can't Murphy get him to do this?

On June 8, in the 4th inning of a game in KC, Danny Duffy walked Rajai Davis on four pitches. On July 15, Cory Wade walked Davis. In the interim, Davis had 102 PA without drawing a walk. This is Vlad Guerrero territory but I doubt Vladdy ever hit .196 with zero HRs in 31 games between walks.

How do you coach a guy with this much misplaced hubris? Davis is the least disciplined hitter on the team, which is hard to do when one of your teammates is Corey Patterson. I don't believe the problem is that he's NOT trying to hit ground balls. The problem is that he's giving pitchers so much of an advantage outside the strike zone that it doesn't matter. He's so far failed to adjust to the extra helping of sliders and cutters he's getting this season. Not only can't he hit them, he can't lay off them either. His BB-K ratio, plate discipline rating, swinging strike pct. are all career worsts this season. Davis has never walked very much and doesn't have to turn into Rickey Henderson to be productive. But he does have to be more willing to take a pitch, even strikes.

Chuck - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#238958) #

That slider low and away... death to Davis, Hill and Arencibia who (a) want to swing at the pitch at all and (b) insist on trying to pull it.

Impulse control may be only a marginally trainable skill.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#238960) #

...This is Vlad Guerrero territory

What an odd comparison. Guerrero was never Ted Williams, but he averaged 57 walks per 162 games - double Davis' career average. Not to mention that Vlad could hit almost anything, leaving him with a very respectable .380 career OBP.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#238961) #

It's a little different for Hill than for the others. If you believe Fangraphs' numbers, Hill does not swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a higher rate than league average (while Arencibia and Davis do), and when he does, he makes contact more often. His swing-and-miss rate is actually very good. The problem is that he's trying to pull that pitch instead of driving it the other way and making weak contact. As a result, he's 2-32 going the other way this year. He hit .250 in 2009 when he did that. The other issue appears to be timing; he's missing too many pitches that he should be driving.

I continue to have faith in his hitting ability. I might be alone in that.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#238962) #

I have a weird stats/observation split with Hill - it seems like whenever I watch a game, he's hitting the ball hard, lining out if he doesn't actually manage a hit. Then I look at his numbers and realize he's been surprisingly awful on the whole.

I was also surprised to discover he "suddenly" had 13 steals. Those must be the games I'm not watching.

I am, perhaps irrationally, optimistic that Hill will recover his swing some day. I have no idea what team he'll be playing for when it happens.

The_Game - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#238963) #

Every year Bauxites seem to get overly attached to a journeyman lefty reliever - Carlson, Lewis, Perez. These guys are a dime a dozen and their shelf life is short, demoting Perez - who's minor league numbers are underwhelming - was the right move. Even though some have underwhelmed, the veteran reliever experiment has much more value to the team - in the clubhouse, on the field, in trades, as draft picks.

I don't remember Carlson or Lewis completely shutting down LH hitters or having a Venters-like 68 GB% over any of their seasons. Perez' peripherals indicate that he is easily good enough to be pitching at this level as a reliever. He may even be the best LOOGY candidate on the team. And it shouldn't need mentioning, but those "underwhelming numbers" in the minors that you speak of came as a starter.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#238964) #

In lighter news, Jose Canseco is now embroiled in a boxing/impersonation scam. It sounds a lot like the plot of an 80s sitcom.

smcs - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#238965) #

I continue to have faith in his hitting ability. I might be alone in that.

I do to, but he just thinks he is a home run hitter and he just isn't. When he had his huge 2009, a bunch of those homers were barely out of the park. The plot of his 2009 home runs looks similar to Jose Bautista's 2010 or 2011 just that there are less and that they are shorter. The double Hill hit off the wall last night, that was certainly hit hard enough to go out, it just didn't get up enough. Maybe in 2009, it has that extra height in it and it gets out.

Chuck - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#238966) #

Guerrero was never Ted Williams, but he averaged 57 walks per 162 games

Bear in mind that a third of those were intentional. Still better than Davis, of course.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#238968) #

If you're going to use the team's runs scored total to support Murphy you must think Walton is doing a terrible job.

why?

we lost one of our top starters from last year , and have still managed to improve our ERA over last year from 4.22 to 4.14 (while maintaing our same 10th placed AL ERA ranking).

let me guess - you're one of the guys who proclaimed our offense as absolute crap before the season started, and now after it has consistently been top-5 in baseball all season long, you want to fire the hitting coach.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#238969) #

I continue to have faith in his hitting ability. I might be alone in that.

I'm his biggest critic, but even I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him but up a decent - even good - season or three over the rest of his career.

I'm just not interested in being the team depending on it, or paying anything more than flier money for it.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#238970) #

I agree Perez should be up here, but it's not exactly a slam dunk case.

ERA

1) Rzep'ski: 2.75
2) Janssen: 2.83
3) Frasor: 3.12
4) Dotel: 3.33
5) Perez: 3.57
6) Camp: 4.10
7) Rauch: 4.12
8) Francisco: 5.40

FIP

1) Janssen: 2.23
2) Rzep'ski: 3.24
3) Frasor: 3.78
4) Camp: 3.85
5) Perez: 4.12
6) Francisco: 4.24
7) Dotel: 4.29
8) Rauch: 4.49

The only guys he seems to clearly have better numbers than here are Francisco and Rauch. Right now they have the advantage over Perez for a number of reasons:

1) Their numbers come from pitching consistently in high-leverage situatiosn, while Perez' do not. (and we've seen Perez get torched a couple of the few times he's pitched in those situations).
2) Proven track record. These guys are good relievers, and always have been.
3) Contracts. They're obviously not getting DFAed.
4) Trades. They're obviously the guys that we would be most interested in trading right now.

and then even when we look at his leftiness:

FIP v. LHH

1) Rzep'ski: 1.88
2) Perez: 2.44
3) Janssen: 2.67

He's the clear #2 lefty in the 'pen, and even then Janssen is pretty much just as good an option vs. lefties anyways.

Perez has looked good this year, but the Jays have a very deep pen. No shame in him biding his time for a little longer, IMO.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#238971) #

have still managed to improve our ERA over last year from 4.22 to 4.14

Not really - offense in the AL is down to a greater degree than the Jays reduction in runs allowed. League ERA has gone from 4.45 last year to 4.23 this year.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#238972) #

I have a weird stats/observation split with Hill - it seems like whenever I watch a game, he's hitting the ball hard, lining out if he doesn't actually manage a hit. Then I look at his numbers and realize he's been surprisingly awful on the whole.

I've noticed this. Hill has popped up a lot and otherwise generally swung the bat like crap, but it's amazing how many times when he does actually square it up it's a liner right at someone. There's a similar hit that I'm personally starting to call "The Hill": this is a fliner directly at the pull outfielder. It feels like once every game or two Hill will hit a ball and for a moment you go "Yeah!....oh" as you realize it's a fliner right at the left fielder. It doesn't go down the line, or up the left-centre gap, or over the LFers head, or in front of him for a single. It's directly at him. There are a lot of these.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#238973) #

Sorry that first paragraph was supposed to be italicized.

scottt - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#238974) #

Well, is offense really down or is pitching up? Is there a way to tell?

uglyone - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#238975) #

Not really - offense in the AL is down to a greater degree than the Jays reduction in runs allowed. League ERA has gone from 4.45 last year to 4.23 this year.

which is why I noted that their 10th in era, just like last year, too.

they've basically stayed the same, despite losing Marcum, (and Downs).

Kasi - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#238976) #

ERA really isn't a great indicator. League offense has dropped by more than the difference between this year and last year's numbers. I guess the 10th place is something to like though compared to last. We still need to improve there since it is the weakness of the team.

92-93 - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#238977) #

I don't attribute the offense's success to Murphy, because I'm hesitant to give any coach or manager that much credit for anything that happens between the lines. I attribute the offense's success to Jose Bautista. Without him, you're left with a cast of players that are all performing at or below expectations, many of them with alarming tendencies that haven't been fixed in over half a season. I wasn't ranting for Murphy to be fired - I was responding to the discussion about Rajai Davis' swing, using him as an example where adjustments are simply not being made by the players. Murphy is the only Clarence-era coach that Farrell still has and he may want to fix that over the winter. Based on what I've seen at the plate from Blue Jays hitters this year, that wouldn't bother me.

bpoz - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#238978) #

uglyone, Thank you for a good presentation on our pitching situation. Since you based it on results rather than potential I find it even more relevant.
So then our pitching (era) is better this year than last because:

1) Romero is providing a big improvement & the #5 last year dragged last year down.
2) Last year we had 3-4 SPs doing a good job so that the pen had an easier time of it.
3) This years pen basically has been the Jays savior because of the poor SPs.
4) Rauch & FF are good RPs who are just having a bad first half. It happens to any pitcher, and no body can expect every year to be good.
If Fraser, Dotel, Rauch & FF start the season basically equal as setup & occasional closer types and they have some sort or veteran guarantee then IMO the poor performance factor is a huge drag on the fortunes of the team. If those 4 are owed the 7,8 & 9th innings then if somehow someone else is doing well, he cannot move up into more important situations. I think if my thinking is correct we have to cut down that 4 to allow for possible failure and then opportunity for an unknown.

My logic has been presented badly, but hopefully there is some sense hidden in it. Sorry!!

uglyone - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#238979) #

I attribute the offense's success to Jose Bautista. Without him, you're left with a cast of players that are all performing at or below expectations, many of them with alarming tendencies that haven't been fixed in over half a season

I'm not sure any of these guys are performing below expectations:

Bautista

Lind

Escobar

Encarnacion

Thames

Arencibia

Patterson

Molina

McDonald

(McCoy)

(Rivera)

the only guys I see performing "below expectations" are:

Snider

Davis

Hill

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, July 20 2011 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#238981) #

I've noticed this. Hill has popped up a lot and otherwise generally swung the bat like crap, but it's amazing how many times when he does actually square it up it's a liner right at someone. There's a similar hit that I'm personally starting to call "The Hill": this is a fliner directly at the pull outfielder. It feels like once every game or two Hill will hit a ball and for a moment you go "Yeah!....oh" as you realize it's a fliner right at the left fielder. It doesn't go down the line, or up the left-centre gap, or over the LFers head, or in front of him for a single. It's directly at him. There are a lot of these.

Annnnnnd....we saw one of these today. A slight variation: the fielder had to dive.

TamRa - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 02:17 AM EDT (#238982) #

I, for one, would be STUNNED if Walton is in ANY danger - I expect he'll be here for years to come.

As for Murphy, I wouldn't be surprised if that position turns over, but if it does i suspect it would be because Mottola or someone is impressing them so much they had rather give the job to them.

ogator - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#238984) #

Heh, uglyone, I think Lunchbox didn't like you ragging on him. Snider is underperforming on his year as a whole, but what about since his return from Vegas? Since he's returned he looks more like the player people thought he would be and management seems to be saying different kinds of things about him. And I think he seems to be saying some fairly wise and admirable things as well...not that ballplayers are judged by what they say...online posters are but not ballplayers.

Ryan Day - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#238985) #

I, for one, would be STUNNED if Walton is in ANY danger - I expect he'll be here for years to come.

The only possible problem is that he was hired under Cito, not Farrell. It's conceivable - though unlikely, since the pitchers seem to like him - that he could be replaced by someone who better fits Farrell's philosophy/style/personality.

We also haven't seen how Anthopoulos reacts to adversity. 2010 was a pleasant season, and while 2011 has been rough at times, there haven't been any major problems. If the team starts to seriously struggle, or if things don't go right when Anthopoulos has built the team to contend, what will happen? Anthopoulos wouldnt' be the first GM to make a sacrificial lamb out of one or two members of the coaching staff.

ramone - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#238986) #

I can't remember which post this was originally under but it was mentioned somewhere on the Box that AA was on PTS last week and had stated that one possible thing they were looking to do at the deadline was trade for a player who set to be a free agent at the end of the year. AA said that they wanted to do this for a player that they would like to sign next year in order to sell him on the city as well as evaluate the player in their own stadium prior to making an offer. If Ken Rosenthal is accurate that player that AA was reffering to could be Heath Bell as per MLBTradeRumors: "Blue Jays Have inquired on Padres Relievers"

With Bell being a type A he also acts as a back up plan if he doesn't sign with the Jays as they will get two picks for him.

So, what does everyone think if this is at all accurate? An interesting way to attract top free agents or a waste of assets in the trade? Also usually anything we hear about with AA usually doesn't happen so this could be all for nothing except it does fit in with what he said on PTS.

BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#238987) #

Snider since his return: 1 walk, 17 strikeouts. That has to improve. He's also sporting an unsustainable .462 babip. He's still a work in progress.

BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#238988) #

Also usually anything we hear about with AA usually doesn't happen so this could be all for nothing except it does fit in with what he said on PTS.

This. The first rule of Anthopoulos is if you hear about it, it won't happen.

Gerry - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#238991) #

Brett Lawrie had three hits for Vegas last night and is probably getting itchy about a major league promotion.

EE is hot right now and the Jays lineup is very settled.

If the Jays did call up Lawrie, who sits? With Lawrie able to play third base or DH, the players who could get bumped by Lawrie are Bautista (yeah right), Snider, Thames, Davis (with Snider in CF) and EE.

Who would you sit? Or would you wait until July 31st and try and trade one of the above?

Mike Green - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#238992) #

The run prevention story is, as usual, a complex one. The Blue Jays lead the league in both strikeouts and walks, and are square in the middle in home runs allowed. The metrics differ significantly on the quality of the team defence, with UZR suggesting that the team is right near the bottom of the league and DRS having it as league average. I'd probably split the difference.

When team defence is below average, there is an impetus for a pitcher to do the work himself which leads to more strikeouts and more walks. Still, leading the league in walks allowed is not a marker of success for a pitching coach.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#238993) #

With Encarnacion hot and Lawrie recovering, I see no reason for the club to do anything before July 31. Edwin is quite capable of hitting 5 homers in a week, and now would be as good a time as any to do so.

ramone - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#238994) #

This. The first rule of Anthopoulos is if you hear about it, it won't happen.

I am fully aware of this, but have a listen to this audio of AA, right around the 5:50 mark, Bell really fits what AA was saying.

92-93 - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#238996) #

Uglyone, you must have missed the part where I said "AT or below expectations". It's a waste of everybody's time to then post a list of players you perceive as not performing below expectations.

Bruce Walton was hired under Ricciardi/Tosca, not Clarence.

No need for roster tinkering. When Lawrie is ready you DFA Patterson. That leaves you with an OF of Thames/Snider/Bautista vs. RHP and Snider/Davis/Bautista vs. LHP. If you're that intent on giving Thames ABs vs. LHP you just take them away from Encarnacion/Davis.

Kasi - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#238997) #

Even if you limit it to "At" Lind, Thames, Molina and Escobar are all performing above expectations. You can almost say EE is as well after how he's been scorching hot the last month.

Ryan Day - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#238998) #

That's true, though he was promoted to pitching coach - generally considered a much bigger role - under Cito. Regardless of who hired him, though, he's not Farrell's guy.

uglyone - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#239000) #

honestly, 92-93, I don't know what else to say.

The team is hitting the crap out of the ball this year overall, and all its best hitters are having great years. Only a 2-3 guys are hitting below expectations, and even then that might just be a function of having the wrong expectations for guys like Hill and davis.

This team's offense has defied expectations since Murphy came here, always being much better than expected. I don't see how this could possibly be a case for firing him.

uglyone - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#239001) #

Heh, uglyone, I think Lunchbox didn't like you ragging on him. Snider is underperforming on his year as a whole, but what about since his return from Vegas? Since he's returned he looks more like the player people thought he would be and management seems to be saying different kinds of things about him. And I think he seems to be saying some fairly wise and admirable things as well...not that ballplayers are judged by what they say...online posters are but not ballplayers.

I have some pretty large expectations for his kid. Even though he's been hot since his return he's still not driving the ball like I think he should be.

of course, he's still a baby - we forget how young he is. Not only is he the youngest guy on the team, but he was the 2nd youngest guy even in Vegas (only lawrie was younger).

uglyone - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#239002) #

If the Jays did call up Lawrie, who sits? With Lawrie able to play third base or DH, the players who could get bumped by Lawrie are Bautista (yeah right), Snider, Thames, Davis (with Snider in CF) and EE

davis, davis, DAVIS!

Kasi - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#239003) #

A lineup of Escobar, Thames, Bautista, Lind, Encarnacion, Snider, Lawrie, Hill and Arencibia/Molina is arguably the second best in baseball behind the Red Sox.

John Northey - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#239004) #

It is an interesting idea - trading for a closer in order to see if he is what you want for 2012 or if you let him go for 2 draft picks. AA probably figures that few will sign closers to big long term deals now (just too risky, especially since Bell is in his age 33 season) so Bell might stick around via arbitration for a few years, little fiscal risk, easy to cut bait if things don't work out, could get 2 draft picks if you are wrong.

Troubling signs: K/9 down to 6.2 after being 10+ the two previous years, BB/9 still over 3. Good signs: HR/9 at 0.2 and lifetime at 0.5

Issues for SD: Offense everywhere but 3B and CF. 1B is a big black hole with Cantu (48 OPS+), Rizzo (58 OPS+) and Hawpe (85 OPS+). Rizzo is just 21 and climbed the minors quickly but this is the first season he cracked 900 for OPS in the minors (1.159 in AAA PCL). He probably needs a lot more minor league time (A+ 278/357/442, AA 263/334/481 then into the video game league aka PCL) like Snider has needed since coming up too soon. Probably could use a stopgap like EE or Cooper as their current stopgaps suck. Hechavarria would be tempting to them as their middle infield could use a boost too. Thames obviously hits the spot as a power hitting outfielder.

I'd rather keep Thames, but Hechavarria and Cooper mixed with a pitching prospect (ideally a Mills type, but they'd want something significant) could do the trick depending on the situation out there and how high SD is on Hechavarria.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#239008) #

With Fister at 3-11 and Romero at 7-9 on the year despite ERAs under 3.2, the only logical conclusion to this game is not good for the Jays and involves Fister going 7.2 innings and allowing 2 runs while Ricky goes 8.2 and leaves 2 men on with a 2-1 lead.

Kasi - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#239010) #

Or we can give him a big lead and hope he doesn't give it right back to them.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#239011) #

Sorry.

Kasi - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#239012) #

Yeah ouch indeed. Romero crumbled there and Janssen imploded. Nice we can make the mighty Mariners look like they have a top offense.

Hodgie - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#239013) #

Crumbled is a little harsh isn't it? The walk to Kennedy was bad but two infield singles isn't exactly getting battered.

Kasi - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#239014) #

He just got gassed. Probably should have been pulled to start the inning.

Ryan Day - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#239015) #

Rajai Davis: Most Clutch Bluejay Ever?

(Kidding, of course. But he's having a heroic week.)

Mike Green - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#239016) #

If you haven't had enough excitement for a steaming afternoon, Las Vegas and Brett Lawrie is playing an afternoon game in Colorado. Let's face it- you are not getting much work done anyways!

TamRa - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#239017) #

if they could steal Bell for a collection of spare part prospects we really don't need, then sure, fine. At worst the draft picks will be better than the players we dealt.

But i wouldn't pay big for him.

Landomar - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#239022) #

I would go for something like the following:

Heath Bell for

a) one of Rauch, Francisco, Dotel, Camp

b) one of Litsch, Mills, Reyes, etc.

c) one of Cooper, Loewen, etc.

If San Diego was willing to take something like Rauch, Litsch, and Cooper, then I'd do that. If the price was much higher, though, then I'd pass.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#239025) #

Bell's K rate is way down in 2011, and his walk rate remains high. He will be 34 in September. He will be a type A. If you offer him arbitration, there's a good chance that he will take it.

Blech. Francisco, Dotel, and Rauch have not been the high points of Anthopoulos' time. Is relief pitching his Achilles heel?

bpoz - Thursday, July 21 2011 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#239027) #

AA have an Achilles Heel? WOW!!!!

Kryptonite & the colour yellow.

Well I am going to get antsy if 2013 is a building year. I don't mind 2012 as a complete youth movement. But in 2013 I don't want any projects like Reyes. The 5th SP spot is reserved for 1 High ceiling ML ready rookie, the other spots are for proven SPs, for which we do not lack candidates. The pen management cannot be crippled by under performing veterans that can get us draft picks, if we have other in house options. If a decent SP prospect like Zep can go to the pen then so can Stewart & Litsch rather than them being in LV because they have options left or some other good reason.

Ryan Day - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#239030) #

Or pitching in general, perhaps. In hindsight, Drabek probably should have spent some more time in the minors, and Reyes looks only slightly better now than he did in spring training.

Alas, pitching is not an exact science. You would have expected Francisco to be a solid, possibly excellent reliever, but that didn't work out. At least Villanueva has been better than anyone would have expected, and Rzep has taken to relief quite well. (though you may well argue he'd be better in the rotation)

Mike Green - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#239043) #

Gillick's account of the Alomar/McGriff trade. Alomar as a "throw-in"? Hmm.

Mike Green - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#239047) #

In other news, happy birthday to Dave Stieb and Cliff Johnson. The July 22 birthday team is actually quite good with Haines, Steib and Sanderson at the top of the rotation, Sparky Lyle and Scot Shields getting the high leverage relief work, George Gibson, Juan Uribe, Jack Glasscock and Doc Cramer down the middle of the diamond, and Heathcliff and Mike Sweeney supplying some pop.

Chuck - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#239054) #

Alomar as a "throw-in"?

One man's prescience is another man's dumb luck.

MatO - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#239059) #

If Alomar was a throw in then why was Fernandez included in the deal? He was a pretty prominent and popular player. If San Dego was so concerned about money then why did they take on Fernandez's salary which would have been more than Alomar was making. The deal created a hole at shortstop for the next 2 and a half seasons until they got Fernandez back. I don't think throw-in is quite the proper term.

Mike Green - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#239061) #

I was using Gillick's words in the link. I agree that it was a funny choice of words- Alomar and McGriff were pretty clearly the most valuable pieces in the trade.

Magpie - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#239064) #

why was Fernandez included in the deal? He was a pretty prominent and popular player.

Not in Toronto, not after the 1990 season. The bloom was definitely off the rose by then...

I always thought of Carter and Fernandez as the throw-ins on the deal - a secondary part that allowed both teams to better reconfigure their talent. Toronto had two first basemen (McGriff and Olerud), but a serious shortage of outfielders (Mookie Wilson was the starting centre fielder in 1990.) San Diego was playing the Ghost of Garry Templeton at short and their best hitter, first baseman Jack Clark, was a free agent. They also had an actual second baseman - Bip Roberts, who'd been better than Alomar in 1990 - stuck playing the outfield.

I always assumed the heart of the exchange was Alomar for McGriff. It was only getting Roberto Alomar that made losing Fred McGriff tolerable to me. And even then, just barely!

bpoz - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#239065) #

I am sure some Bauxites can evaluate how those players performed after the trade.
Alomar #1. Carter & McGriff equal. Tony #4. Good health to all. But age was a factor. And Alomer was unproven?

IMO Fernandez had a Bule Jay tatoo on his ... I think he could not play as well for anyone else.

Magpie - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#239067) #

After the trade, from 1991 forward?

It's fairly interesting. Obviously Alomar and McGriff are way, way ahead of the two older guys. Carter was the oldest of the four and his career ended first, but I have to think that from 1991 forward he was, overall, more useful than Fernandez (who lost much of his defensive value after 1993.)

Alomar or McGriff from 1991 forward? McGriff has a pretty big edge before 1991, and he still had twelve pretty good seasons left, Alomar would turn out to have eleven. Alomar's peak years are pretty sensational, though.

Mike Green - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#239068) #

You would think that tonight's outing would seal the deal for Reyes in the rotation. He has been in 2011 what he had always been before, and his trade value is now no more than Rivera's.

Chuck - Friday, July 22 2011 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#239077) #

Time for Reyes to be set adrift on an ice floe. Patterson as well.