Is it time to give Brad Mills a shot in TO?  Seems to have done a good job of cutting down on the walks, which were a big problem for him.

Surely he can't be any worse than Reyes, right?

Wonder what the ratings are for draft picks for players right now. If Reyes could net a B pick by staying in the rotation then I'd expect him to stay there. Otherwise I don't see why he is still there as his 81 ERA+ is not impressive. ERA by month for Reyes - 5.48, 3.35, 6.11, 5.82 - one of these things is not like the others. His career ERA is 5.89. His control has been reasonable (2.9 walks per 9) but his strikeouts are low at 5.2 K/9 and doesn't suggest we should expect much going forward.

Given Reyes only pitched in 1 game last year I can't imagine he'll be at draft pick level (based on 2 year stats) so I'd be getting ready to dump him at this point and seeing what Mills or someone else in AAA has instead. I suspect AA is trying to deal him and if nothing happens by August 1st it'll be bye bye time.

Here's the latest estimates from MLB trade rumours: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/elias-rankings/

Reyes is nowhere close to being worth a pick.

I hope this isn't a blind spot for AA. He acquired Reyes in a trade but you'd hope he isn't endlessly given chances to prove he belongs to show how smart the Jays scouts/GM are. Escobar's play has clearly made the trade a win for the Jays no matter what Reyes does.

Marisnick has joined Knecht in the late promotion category.  It's not as though these 20 year olds would be taking at-bats away from other prospects in Dunedin. 

Marisnick has a limited time in centerfield.  You want him to move up if he masters a level, so he can use his speed at the big-league level for as long as possible. 

Reyes is not even remotely close to being a free agent.  I don't think he's even arbitration eligible after this season, so there's no possiblity of any draft picks.

Definitely nothing blocking Knecht or Marasnick in Dunedin.

 

I was at the game yesterday and Mills would have dominated almost anyone yesteday.  If that start would have been in Toronto, it probably wouldn't have been shut out or no hit bid good, but it would have definitely put them in the position to win.  The one thing that I noted was that his pitch type was predictable in certain counts.  For instance, he threw a change up in every 3-2 count he was in and the hitter from Tucson that got the hit said he knew Mills was going to throw a 3-2 change up because he had done it all game.  That may have to be addressed.  He also shook Budde off quite a bit yesterday which may have been part of keeping the hitters off balance as well...I'm not sure.

As far as Knecht and Marisnick, I agree both should be promoted.  I thought that Knecht was going to be moved during the MWL all star break with Turnbull and Hutchinson.  The only reason I can see them still being in Lansing (and this is a huge stretch here because I can't believe they would hold them back for this), is if Toronto wanted them to have a run at the MWL title this season to try and build a winning tradition and attitude.  Some organizations take that very seriously and if they think they can win a title at a certain level, they sometimes don't promote.  The Cubs were notorious for that when they were in Lansing.  I don't know that that is the reason however.

Outside of that, I can't think of another reason.

Just checked Cots and it seems Reyes is going for his first arbitration year after this season. Thus the team controls him for 3 years after this one (3 days in the minors is all it would take to add another year before free agency).

I don't worry about AA being egotistical about his trades having to work out. I worry about him getting addicted to 'controllable' players. IE: the Jays have 3+ years of control for Reyes thus holding him even when he is no longer a major asset.

I suspect we are waiting for the pen logjam to clear right now, then a lot of pieces will start moving. Francisco, Camp, Frasor, Rauch, and Dotel cannot be demoted and are thus blocking better options. IE: shifting Reyes to the pen and putting Mills or Litsch or Stewart or... into the rotation. Right now Frasor, Rzep, Perez and once 100% Janssen (if he isn't already) should be in the pen. The others I could live without but would mostly be worth a draft pick each if they leave in the winter thus are being held onto.

Guess the good thing is that guys in the minors are showing they can play and will feel the need to prove themselves even more if the Jays put harder caps on level hopping. Next spring they'll all know they need to earn a shot at AAA if they want a ML job at some point in 2012.

Considering that JoJo Reyes is basically a worse version of David Purcey (a guy they moved for very little only a few months ago), it's hard to understand why the Jays still have any faith in him.

And I agree, if you're not going to give Litsch his job back for whatever reason, you might as well Brad Mills a shot for a while. Being the best pitcher in the PCL this season should be worth some consideration.

The July trade deadline is a weird time of year under the new front office. Because AA typically flies under the radar, I assume that if we hear a rumour, it's probably not going to happen. So there doesn't seem to be much point in tracking the rumours.

I was thinking that AA could nab some top-50 prospects using the old bait-and-switch in trade discussions ("look, I've pulled some strings...I can get you Reyes"), but on second thought, the other team might not appreciate finding out that they'd acquired Jo-Jo, not Jose...

Considering that JoJo Reyes is basically a worse version of David Purcey...

I don't think he's worse, comparing Reyes in 2011 to Purcey's totals as a starter reveal pretty much equal results. Purcey struck out considerably more but also walked considerably more.

But the preception out in the either is that Purcey is done as a starter and that hasn't been concluded about Reyes yet.

I don't think Reyes will get you a LOT , but even if a team saw him as a LH reliever (whereas we don't have any room in the pen without trading someone else) there's SOME value..Purcey also got the A's Sizemore (for whatever you think Sizemore is worth) for instance.

 

Is it time to give Brad Mills a shot in TO?  Seems to have done a good job of cutting down on the walks, which were a big problem for him.

Surely he can't be any worse than Reyes, right?

Reyes isn't his problem. Being behind Litsch, Drabek, and even McGowan (if McGowan gets all the way back they HAVE to have him in the majors before Mills) is his problem. there are potentially two vacanxcies (assuming the decide to let CV slide back to the 'pen) and potentially he's 4th in line.

Maybe fifth given they also took a look at Stewart instead of recalling him.


As for Reyes...he's got 2 more starts and AA has two weeks to make a deal.

If he can't, then in august he'll be run through waivers and he'll either be claimed and dealt, or unclaimed and in Vegas.

I can see worrying about Reyes six weeks ago - but now? it's two more starts, don't sweat it.

I think the roster will undergo some serious renovations in the next couple years as the Jays try to settle on a core group of players.  I mean at this point there really isn't a minor leaguer who is really "blocked." 

Guys like Jo-Jo Reyes are place holders until someone else better comes along (aren't we all).  I don't think AA really sees anyone else other than Romero and Morrow as guys who should be kept around on the current MLb roster.  With basically everyone but Romero and Morrow you're trying to increase their value in hopes of shuffling them off for picks or prospects. 

The funny part is, Reyes' 4.91 ERA is much better than it should be considering his 1.57 WHIP.  I have no qualms about him being a bullpen arm as I've stated on numerous counts this year, but it frustrates me when players like that take away from us getting to see if we have anything in other players.  Most would say Mills is not an AL East starter, but even if you have the opportunity for him to be out there so more scouts see him, then you have a chance at an NL team being interested.  But Mills deserves it, no matter how you look at it.  He's been the best starter in the PCL all year.

Mills is not behind Drabek and McGowan on the list of candidates for a short-term starting gig.  At this point, bringing Drabek back quickly after his struggles in Las Vegas would be foolhardy.  As for McGowan, he hasn't thrown more than 2.2 innings yet (nor should he), and he's at the single A level.  Why oh why would you want to thrust him into the major league rotation now or anytime soon?

It is all well and good to believe that Drabek and McGowan have better stuff and a higher upside than Mills, but surely readiness ought to be evaluated on an ongoing basis.  Mills wouldn't be my choice for the next shot at the rotation (I'd give him 1/2 a season in the pen to learn some more first), but at least he is pitching well and throwing 100 pitches per outing at triple A. 

Just to clarify being blocked.  Many here might say Travis d'Arnaud is blocked.  I would disagree.  I think once d'Arnaud is ready, he would likely usurp Arencibia.  I also don't think someone like Hechavarria is blocked.  If he put numbers next year in AA/AAA I think they'd move Escobar to another position or team, or Hech would come up at 2B.  McDade as well, if the Jays were 100% convinced he was ready in a year's time to produce big numbers, I'm sure he'd split time with Lind at 1B/DH.

 

I mean we don't have a Yonder Alonso situation or a Jeremy Hellickson or Desmond Jennings or Jesus Montero or Lars Anderson or anyways you get my drift. 

 

So ya, I think the lack of "blockness" indicates that the Jays have very few excellent players and that the roster will constantly be changing. 

Mills is not behind Drabek and McGowan on the list of candidates for a short-term starting gig.  At this point, bringing Drabek back quickly after his struggles in Las Vegas would be foolhardy.  As for McGowan, he hasn't thrown more than 2.2 innings yet (nor should he), and he's at the single A level.  Why oh why would you want to thrust him into the major league rotation now or anytime soon?

McGowan has I believe 3 more starts before the team has to fish or cut bait, so to speak; he can only be on a rehab stint for 30 days. I believe the team wants to keep him as a starter because the regular schedule is easier than relieving. Who knows what the team is going to decide to do.

I do agree that Mills should be given a chance. I've given up trying to figure out what the Jays are doing, with Reyes, with Zep in the bullpen, with bringing Stewart up for 3 starts, with Jose to 3B, with Patterson. It's a bit sclerotic.

McGowan has I believe 3 more starts before the team has to fish or cut bait, so to speak; he can only be on a rehab stint for 30 days.

There is a suggestion that they could "interrupt" his rehab (likely with his consent) and then the 30 days would start anew.  Not sure about how they entice this consent or what the PA would say about it.  We only have to get to Sept 1.

I do hope Lawrie amounts to something, because highlights like this make me yearn for Shaun Marcum:

http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2011/07/18/shaun-marcum-defensive-upgrade/

 Many here might say Travis d'Arnaud is blocked.  I would disagree.  I think once d'Arnaud is ready, he would likely usurp Arencibia.

Keith Law has been saying that d'Arnaud is the far better player, and when he's ready to stick at the MLB level la Blue Jays will have a valueable trade chit in Aaron Cibia.

I saw Blake McFarland pitch yesterday afternoon, as I was at the game. It was impressive how he mixed the speed of his pitches. He consistently painted the black all game long and left the Boise hitters off balance. Boise hitters only managed to get good wood on the ball 2 or 3 times. However, I don't see him as a prospect. He sat between 86 to 88 MPH and his change-up came in at 72 to 77. I'd expect a little more heat from someone with a 6'5" frame.

He's 23 at a low level, so I think you're probably right about ol' Blake.

Wow. I missed Marcum already - it's not enough that he makes major league hitters look stupid with an 87-mph fastball, now he has to start fielding like Ozzie Smith. Definitely one of the best pitcher plays I've ever seen.

I don't think it is the best Marcum play I have seen. It is a wonder that he has not yet won a Gold Glove. It should be noted that Ricky Romero is a great fielder too, albeit not as spectacular as Marcum.

Drew Hutchison is getting the hang of the FSL, 6 innings with no walks and eight strikeouts tonight. He'll be starting 2012 in New Hampshire, knock on wood.

Wilner twitted today that Jojo Reyes throws 94 km. That cannot be correct, right?

Maybe he can throw 94 mph, but he certainly can't pitch 94 mph.

If Reyes throws 94 km that would explain a lot.

I'm not saying Jo-Jo Reyes is getting tired, but I think if this trend continues, his fastball might actually sit at 94 kmh (58 mph for those scoring at home).

Mills is not behind Drabek and McGowan on the list of candidates for a short-term starting gig.  At this point, bringing Drabek back quickly after his struggles in Las Vegas would be foolhardy.  As for McGowan, he hasn't thrown more than 2.2 innings yet (nor should he), and he's at the single A level.  Why oh why would you want to thrust him into the major league rotation now or anytime soon?

It is all well and good to believe that Drabek and McGowan have better stuff and a higher upside than Mills, but surely readiness ought to be evaluated on an ongoing basis.  Mills wouldn't be my choice for the next shot at the rotation (I'd give him 1/2 a season in the pen to learn some more first), but at least he is pitching well and throwing 100 pitches per outing at triple A.


Here's the thinking:

first, it's true Drabek isn't ready to be recalled (as far as we can tell) and if, say, two starters got hurt and you needed a short term stopgap he's not ahead of Mills.

But I'm not speaking of that scenario, I'm speaking of purposely vacating Jo-Jo's spot for the next in line, and Villianueva back to the pen for similar reasons (i.e. player development).

so the operating premise has to be, speaking of Reyes in particular here, "does the next guy we need to look at compel us to get Reyes out of his way?"

Assuming that any one gay or the combination of a number of guys means you answer that question "yes" then here's your list of concerns as a GM:

1. Whither Dustin McGowan? He's the oldest, the longest served, and the closest to free agency of the pitchers we need answers about. He cannot be optioned either this year or next year so, having stuck with him this long, the odds of simply letting him slip away are non-existant. obviously you believe he brings something special or you'd have given up long ago.

In order to best evaluate where he fits in the 2012 rotation, you NEED to see him in the majors in 2011. The best measure of that is games outside September. So in the interest of medium-term roster building, it's in the teams best interest to have him in the Blue Jays rotation before September 1. The more often the better. Assuming of course that he has no setbacks.

His progression is actually on a pitch count, not an IP count but they have short-handed it to say they are upping him by innings - actually it's by projected # of pitches per inning. I.E 15-20 pitches is about an inning, and John Farrell suggested that they want to bump him an inning every other start. So projecting it out:

7/2 - 1 inning
7/6 - 2 IP
7/10 - 2
7/15 - 3 (2.2 but the pitch count of three I expect)
7/20 - 3
7/25 - 4
7/30 - 4

that puts him right at the fringe, ready to go five which is kinda what you want from a major league guy at a minimum. It's by no means sure that they would activate him on August 2 with the expectation of getting say 75 pitches out of him. but it's not inconcievable that they would prefer that to manipulating the re-hap clock. in any case, even if they do that, then you continue on:

8/6 - 5 IP
8/11 - 5
8/16 - 6
8/21 - 6

NOW you have to call him not because the 30 days are up but because you want him to get a couple of August starts (or so it seems to me).

Three weeks more or less, you need to see what he's still got (especially if it's as good as Farrell and others have suggested) so by m lights he's the first priority, even if he's not the first on the scene because of his timetable.

2. What to do with Litsch? if the Jays considered Mills to be a superior option that Litsch, why have they shown no hint of it? Litsch had an option, they know what Mills can do. whatever you or i think about being "deserving" - Litsch has pitched as well, when healthy, in the majors as Mills has in Vegas - I like Mills but I don't see the argument for throwing Litsch under the bus for him. If you deal Reyes and McGowan isn't ready yet, Jesse has every right to expect to get his job back.

3. Drabek - as conceded, probably not ready yet and i don't expect to see him before September personally. But as the Jays look ahead to 2012 there isn't the slightest possibility (assuming health) that Mills has any shot at taking Drabek's role next year. He's behind Drabek on the depth chart by any logic you care to employ EXCEPT as as pot-start option which allows them to not interrupt Drabek's remediation. If mills were promoted and pitched well for 3 or 4 games and the team was convinced Drabek was fixed, they would hand the spot to Drabek without hesitation.

4. Zach Stewart is there too - remember, when the Jays had an OBVIOUS neon-colored opportunity to give Mills some deserved opportunity - they went to Stewart instead. what does that tell you?

To distill the ramble into a point: I'm discussing them in terms of priorities. Who they need to see between now and the end of the year (and before September when practical) and why, NOT in terms of "who can be servicable in a couple of spot starts"

in that regard, McGowan and Drabek are behind anyone else only to the extent that their own particular circumstances dictate. when McGowan CAN, in their opinion, potentially pitch well in the majors he WILL and if that steps on Reyes or Villianueva or even Litsch too bad. in spades for Mills.
when they think Drabek has the kinks ironed out he WILL be here. if they could run through any significant portion of August with both of them in the rotation with R/M/C they would consider that a very very good thing. if they can't, it will be because of whatos going on with McGowan and/or Drabek - not because of anyone else.

it's in that sense they are clearly ahead of Mills.

I frankly think that if everyone was healthy and ready, your depth chart - in terms of who they most want to get into the rotation, looks like this:

1. Romero
2. Morrow
3. McGowan
4. Drabek
5. Cecil
6. Stewart
7. Reyes
8. Villianueva
9. Mills (at best)

and if it's ST 2012 and they seriously thought they were down to Mills, they'd be stretching out Zep.

the best thing that could happen to Mills is a deal to San Diego or Florida or some such.