In an odd, that''s-gonna-fail stab at addressing a problematic hole in left field, earlier today the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired right-handed "hitting" outfielder Juan Rivera and cash from the Jays for a player to be named or cash. In a related move, to create roster space, LA OF Marcus Thames was designated for assignment.
In another thread, long-time Bauxite MatO captured this deal perfectly with the comment, "Who made the Rivera deal? The bankruptcy judge? "
Rivera can still hit left handed pitching, which is why the Dodgers acquired him to replace Thames who has stopped doing so.
2008-2010 Rivera vs LHP - .282/.334/.515
2011 Rivera vs LHP - .327/.400/.509
2011 Thames vs LHP - .167/.231/.306
Used strictly as a platoon bat, there is offensive value in Rivera (although nowhere near $5.2 million/season worth)
Farrell said rotation Reyes-Villanueva-Romero-Morrow. Will use the
off-day to flip Romero and Reyes and get Ricky back in top spot.
ok, to make that more visual:
here's the rotation as announced without a "flip"
7/14 - Reyes
7/15 - Villianueva
7/16 - Romero
7/17 - Morrow
7/18 - off
7/19 - Cecil
7/20 - Reyes
7/21 - Villianueva
7/22 - Romero
7/23 - Morrow
7/24 - Cecil
7/25 - off
7/14 - Reyes
7/15 - Villianueva
7/16 - Romero
7/17 - Morrow
7/18 - off
7/19 - Cecil
7/20 - Romero (on three days??)
7/21 - Villianueva
7/22 - Reyes
7/23 - Morrow
7/24 - Cecil
7/25 - off
"The outfielder was dealt to the L.A. Dodgers for roughly $175,000, with the Jays paying about $2.095 million remaining on RIvera’s contract."
Believable?
Only if you have the keys to Mylegacy's liquor cabinet.
Mistrial in the Roger Clemens affair.
I don't understand the nuances of these legal procedures, but this seems pretty silly.
Which seems just astonishingly careless.
This is what I mean. I am shocked that the prosecution would play this video in its original form, even though any kid with 10 minutes of free time could have properly edited it to remove the inadmissable material. The issue moves beyond "astonishing" and into "is this a joke?" territory when it is revealed that when the judge ordered the prosecution to stop playing the tape it was in fact paused on a picture of Ms. Pettite's testimony, which was then displayed proudly for the jury to view until they were chased out of the courtroom.
The Coen brothers should make a movie about this.
The Gord Ash era was full of seasons where the Jays went for it with inadequate players, the Ricciardi era was full of teams that were good and hoping for things to break right. Both of these eras worked out about the same (except one cost a lot more). Ash had the star hitters but never good enough pitching, Ricciardi the opposite.
I don't think Anthropoulos has established exactly what he will do long term, but I do worry that is becomes a perpetual "two years from now" situation. Rather than being good at finding the scrap heap veterans like Ricciardi, he's good at finding prospects, or so it appears. But neither strategy will work on it's own in this division - Tampa won because they found great scrap heap guys (Zobrist, Pena) and had great prospects pan out.
The Jays have a window right now - they have possibly the top player in baseball at his peak. This is exactly the break that Ricciardi flailed around looking for and never hit on, thus dooming his strategy to consistent good teams, but never great ones. If you go back to 2006, which seems more likely - Alex Rios or Jose Bautista turning into a super-duper star? Anthropoulos has hit on one of the luckiest breaks in GM history, but unfortunately (for him) he wasn't really planning for it - he was apparently ready to do a tear down and restart from scratch. I would argue that's it's only Bautista's performance that has oddly forced the team to go off script and make an attempt to win sooner, at least half-heartedly.
I think I might be arguing that Ricciardi would in retrospect have been a better GM for the 2011/2012 Jays, assuming Bautista turned out the same. He was skilled at building teams without huge problems at positions (which made it hard to get better without a fluke like Bautista) and good pitching. Anthropoulos has stumbled into a spot where it turns out, they should have been going for it right now. His long-term strategy is better, and might still work out (although I also worry he'll be good at making a profit, instead of great teams), but it is frustrating to think about what might have been with decent production from 2B, 3B, CF, LF this year. It's not hard to construct a reasonable hypothetical team with a $80 million payroll being a lot better.
You’re the GM of the Jays, would you trade Brandon Morrow for Colby Rasmus?
I like Morrow but I’m getting a AJ Burnett vibe from him. He’s
got elite stuff and should be challenging for the Cy Young every season but it
hasn’t and might not ever happen. The Cardinals probably don’t view Rasmus as a
untouchable player.
Besides Rasmus, I think Gordon Beckham is another young player that should be targeted.
While we can debate whether the Jays could have spent $120 mil in 2011 I don't think it was a good idea. I believe the calculation that AA is working under is that Toronto is not one of the more desirable locations for free agents. It's a different country for US born players, the early season weather is bad and you have to compete against the Red Sox and Yankees. The top tier of free agents are generally not attracted to Toronto. JP Ricciardi tried to work around this by overpaying for 2nd tier free agents but that didn't work.
I think AA believes you have to grow more talent internally than sign free agents, the free agents will be more attracted to come here if you have a talented base.
From time to time a top tier free agent might be willing to sign here, but until that happens you have to go with plan B.
Something that will become more and more of an issue is the turf at the Rogers Centre now that virtually all teams are playing on natural grass. It`s one more thing that FA`s will consider a negative. I`m sure there`s a way to get grass in the dome and I don`t think it would cost Vernon Wells dollars to do it.
because Cecil and Romero are the most similar among the lefties
Yes. They both resemble competent major league starters.
Snark to Mike Wilner.
You have to wildly overpay for FAs if you are the 2011 Washington Nationals. Not so much if you're the 1992 Toronto Blue Jays,or even the 2011 Yankees - and I don't think Canada is an issue to FAs at all - winning is.
Signing Paul Molitor and Dave Winfield equivalents at that stage of the cycle makes alot more sense than Jason Werth equivalents at this stage of the Jays cycle, which I think will mean we stay away from Prince Fielder.
Having said that, there seem to be so many fewer FAs actually reaching FA (especially pitchers) - that this is becoming almost a prohibitively expensive route at all with the Yankees and Red Sox around.
I think the future will be about more creative money spending (Beckett/Lowell to BOS model) and using prospects to trade for top talen (AdGon model)
It's unfortunate that he is out of options and he is blocking prospects but just throwing him out is bad business.
Well, it would be bad business if he's actually blocking someone who can perform better. He gives you five innings a start, that's it. Considering his trade "value" at his peak, say the trade deadline, what do you think you'd get in return for him anyway. I personaly imagine not very much, a lower tier prospect. I don't care that he's around, as long as he's not taking the rotation spot of someone who can perform better and believe his trade value is not ever going to bring back much worth talking about at the end of the day.
There may be a light at the end of the tunnel. I was listening to an interview AA gave to the Fan590 yesterday evening (it's on their website). To paraphrase he was asked about what he wanted back if he was involved in trades this month, did he want prospects? His answer was no, the team was in a different position now and he was looking for players who could help the team this year or next. He specifically said he would be interested in players who are free agents at the end of the season. He hoped that two months in Toronto would endear them to the city and the team and make it easier to resign them.
His answer was no, the team was in a different position now and he was looking for players who could help the team this year or next.
He's made these trades before. So this isn't a new strategy. Best example: Escobar.
He specifically said he would be interested in players who are free agents at the end of the season. He hoped that two months in Toronto would endear them to the city and the team and make it easier to resign them.
I'd be surprised if he's actually refering to anyone in particular. If he was, anyone have any guesses?
Don't dream small dreams. Jose Reyes would be an outstanding addition.
Considering the money required (and his bad health record as well) to sign him, and the marginal improvement he'd be over Escobar, I think Toronto would be one of the last teams that needs to dream of Reyes.
He is a very bad pitcher. And it is pretty embarassing that we've already given this guy 19 starts, and it's a big surprise coming from a manager who has been as smart as AA has been so far.
Nice. Too bad about Litsch and Richmond injuries this season. And apparenlty Brad Mills is waiting to be traded to an org like San Diego, etc. because he obviously has no future in TO.
Reyes or Fielder? Sign both. The payroll still wouldn't approach 120m.
It would also be pretty neat to have them keep each other company in the clubhouse playing MLB: The Show during their periodic stints on the DL. Kind of like Mauer and Kevin Butler on the Playstation ads, only they would be sucking back more than 1/3 of the team's salary. I'm sold.
He is a very bad pitcher. And it is pretty embarassing that we've already given this guy 19 starts, and it's a big surprise coming from a manager who has been as smart as AA has been so far.Agreed on Reyes. The guy should not be starting in the majors, let alone for a team in the AL East. It's amazing that he's lasted this long into the season and I would expect he'll be gone within the next few weeks if not sooner. Do not agree on Farrell. He's been far worse than I imagined he could be. His inconsistent and almost clueless decision-making, his devotion to the concept of a "closer" in completely inappropriate situations, his regular poor lineup configurations, and his taking unnecessary risks with the running game add up.
So far this season many of John Farrell's decisions have been questioned, and observers smarter than I have even placed responsibility for a loss or two on his shoulders. Nevertheless, I am not concerned.
The Blue Jays hired him not becuase he was the best manager available at the beginning of this season, but (according to what I have read on the decision) because they found in him the qualities and skills required to develop into a quality manager. These are the same qualities and skills that led to those who have worked with him in the past to speak so well of him both as a person and a professional. I understand that in situations like this everyone involved is likely to say exactly what was said, but that doesn't mean that it isn't true.
He has made errors perhaps, but wouldn't it be more surprising if he hadn't? Like one of the young players he is learning on the job, and I will not evaluate him on how he has performed over his first three months, but rather how he performs and develops in his first two or three years. Given the incredible wealth of coaching experience in that dugout and the diligence with which the hiring process was undertaken, I am pretty optimistic.
The guy I'd be interested in is C.J. Wilson.
Could we move Janssen to the rotation and make our own C.J. Wilson?
Reyes would be a great fit in almost every other respect, but I'd be a bit worried at how a player with chronic hamstring trouble would hold up on turf.
Continuing with this thought, it's not that I would avoid him, but I don't know if the team would want to win the bidding war Werth-style while simultaneously increasing the injury risk. Of course, I've always been a fan of the super-sub, so if the Jays could get their hands on a Jed Lowrie type to give him a half-day off with some frequency, that might work.
I suppose that the arguments made that Prince is more/less likely to be an injury problem because he is over-weight/has proven to be durable are both equally weak. Injuries are largely a function of luck, although fitness and physical attributes do play some role. Overall though, I would imagine that one should look at the median "time missed due to injury" for a ball player, and say that on the whole those with less have been lucky, and those with more have been unlucky. Perhaps Prince has been "lucky" so far, and in a way that might actually increase the risk. I'm not entirely sure, as finite mathematics have never been my strong suit. (I enjoy Twain's belief that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics).
Is anyone here an actuary? Do baseball organizations employ them?
I do suppose that the issue of time lost due to injury may pale in comparison to the issue of decreased performance due to physical deterioration.
I would be very hesitant to trade Morrow. His stuff is nuclear.
Exactly. He's worth more to the Jays than Rasmus would be or the like.
RK TEAM GP W L ERA CG SHO IP ER R BB SO BAAThat ain't good. Without Romero, this is almost - gulp - the Royals...
1 Seattle 92 30 36 3.19 9 9 613.0 217 234 165 506 .230
2 Oakland 92 31 35 3.19 3 5 570.1 202 236 195 406 .247
3 LA Angels 92 35 26 3.21 7 7 605.1 216 235 168 440 .246
4 Tampa Bay 90 37 33 3.57 8 7 580.0 230 244 173 435 .240
5 Texas 93 41 24 3.60 7 11 583.0 233 261 181 452 .245
6 NY Yankees 89 42 27 3.67 3 4 552.0 225 252 180 408 .251
7 Minnesota 90 34 32 3.95 6 7 560.1 246 274 171 372 .262
American League 91 33 32 3.97 5 6 560 246 268 179 401 .257
8 Chicago Sox 92 31 36 4.04 3 6 588.1 264 276 158 402 .263
9 Detroit 92 37 30 4.08 4 10 560.0 254 280 173 395 .260
10 Boston 90 42 24 4.09 1 8 539.1 245 257 202 403 .241
11 Cleveland 90 33 33 4.36 2 4 541.1 262 283 154 348 .269
12 Toronto 93 31 33 4.48 5 3 547.0 272 296 221 426 .268
13 Baltimore 89 24 41 5.06 3 5 482.1 271 295 183 321 .281
14 Kansas City 92 19 40 5.15 2 4 524.1 300 327 181 305 .295
