Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - At Least We've Got Our Health

Time for a new thread. Change the luck.

Besides there are issues to address.

Do we despair? I think not. We survived the Felix Escalona Game, we'll survive this.

Frank Francisco didn't have the best night of his life, and when he was done, he asked the assembled reporters if they'd like to talk to him. Naturally, they wanted to. But Frankie was just setting them up (he told them something we won't repeat here and stalked off into the night or the trainer's room.) Several questions come to mind. For example:

-- Was that Frankie's best setup job of the season?

-- Just how obscene is it that they allow this idiot to profane Tom Henke's number?

Mike Green and I were going back and forth on whether Rajai Davis or Vernon Wells was the better baseball player right now. Which, when you step back for a moment and remember how bad both of them have been in 2011, is very much a "Which is the tallest of those two jockeys?" kind of question.

Finally, Bauxite agator observed that:

If last night's ninth inning did not warrant an honest gag reflex of despair, it certainly qualified for a bout of morose questioning of direction and a nagging insistence that Kafka may have been on to something.

Indeed. What are the lessons we can take from Kafka to help us through?

Maybe Kafkaesque is not the best way to see what's happening around here. Perhaps we should remember the immortal words of the greatest pessimist of them all, Arthur Schopenhauer:

Never a rose without a thorn. But many a thorn without a rose.

Posted by Magpie on Friday, July 08 2011 @ 04:47 PM EDT.

At Least We've Got Our Health | 126 comments | Create New Account

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Mike Green - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#238271) #

An erratum: the four best fielding clubs (according to UZR) in 2011 are the Red Sox, Rays, Reds and Yankees. FWIW, all of the metrics suggest that Brett Gardner is a historically great defensive left-fielder, and much better than Sam Fuld who makes the highlight reel catches.

Chuck - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#238272) #

Sitting on my ever growing pile of "on deck" books to read is a biography of Kafka illustrated by Robert Crumb. How's that for self-referential Kafkaesquism (or whatever the noun is).

So did Frank Francisco come into the game as a closer and leave as a cockroach? Surely this metaphor can be made to work somehow. There are men of letters who frequent this site. Gentlemen?

greenfrog - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#238273) #

Kafka once said, "there is hope, but not for us." Did he mean the 2011 Jays squad? The trio of Francisco, Rauch, and Dotel? Davis and Patterson, perhaps?

Ever enigmatic, that Kafka. Personally, I think it applies best to the JP-and-Cito era. These days hope seems to abound for baseball north of the border.

Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#238274) #

It's been a while since I read this, but Kafka and his friends apparently regarded his stories as wildly funny. He would read them aloud, and tears of laughter would be rolling down everyone's face.

There's an anecdote, possibly apocryphal, of Kafka on his deathbed asking his friend "Don't leave me." His friend replied "I am not leaving you."

To which Kafka said "But I am leaving you," which does suggest that he may have been an incorrigible comedian.

Dewey - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#238275) #

In recent days we�ve had a Kierkegaard citing, and now several of Kafka. These men complicate matters, respecting--even celebrating--the fog. I need something more like Erma Bomback, myself, to explain the workings of things in Jaysworld to me in straightforward prose, with some humour infused if possible. On other threads here, people are speculating about lineups in 2016. . . . 2016! I defy either of the two K�s to explain that. Maybe Erma could.

I am heartened, however, by Magpie�s recollection of Kafka the comic. And Chuck's growing on-deck circle. What a site!

Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#238276) #

the four best fielding clubs (according to UZR) in 2011 are the Red Sox, Rays, Reds and Yankees.

That's pretty interesting. It includes the team that replaced Adrian Beltre with Kevin Youkilis. And the team that plays Derek Jeter at shortstop. Maybe infielders' range is overrated!

Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#238277) #

No Rivera, no Rodriguez, and now no Jeter. Are the Yankees boycotting the ASG?

scottt - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#238278) #

the four best fielding clubs (according to UZR) in 2011 are the Red Sox, Rays, Reds and Yankees.

I suppose there is a pitching element to team UZR. Clearly, some pitchers get more outs on balls in play than others.

greenfrog - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#238282) #

Home run Travis Snider! Good to see (on Gameday, that is).

Shane - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#238283) #

Jo Jo Reyes. I'm some glad they've/we've hung on to him. He's an asset. Wouldn't want to lose him on waivers, no siree. (Unless he actually gets kicked to the bullpen where maybe he'll consitently become **something**)

92-93 - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#238284) #

Good thing Farrell removed Dotel in a 6 run game after he retired all 4 batters he faced on 13 pitches.

ayjackson - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#238285) #

I don't know what Gregg's problem was, and I don't care, that was awesome!

ayjackson - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#238286) #

It's too bad Jeroloman is on the DL, JPA could use a couple of weeks there himself. It looks like he needs a break, be it for phsyical or mental reasons.

Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#238287) #

So the 3-4-5 hitters went 1-12, and they scored 11 runs anyway. I'll bet that hasn't happened for a while.

Kevin Gregg. All is forgiven. On so many levels.

Spifficus - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#238288) #

Good thing Farrell removed Dotel in a 6 run game after he retired all 4 batters he faced on 13 pitches.

And if he had left him in to face lefties in 2 of the next three, I can make a guess as to your reaction. There are a lot of non-roto-league dynamics in play, such as making sure guys get regular use and not overextending guys so they're still pretty fresh the next night (warmup pitches count for something, and he would have thrown 3 sets if he started the next inning). It's not always mismanagement when a reliever gives up runs; sometimes they just don't execute.

Kasi - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#238289) #

Basically what Spifficus said. There is no reason to keep in a former closer like Dotel in like he is a long man. He isn't a long man. It's not Farrell's fault that Camp sucked, just like it wasn't his fault last night that Francisco did. Farrell's issue last night was not having a better option to bring in there than Perez, not that Frankie blew the farm.

ayjackson - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#238290) #

Camp got four consecutive grounders and left the game without recording an out. I think that`s just bad luck.

92-93 - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#238291) #

I sure hope you can make a guess as to my reaction, considering I've been begging Farrell to stop cycling through relievers all season. It has NOTHING to do with giving up runs; I made that comment before Camp had given up his 3rd hit. As for your usage comments - it's better to extend (not overextend) one reliever than four - that way worse comes to worse you burn one guy for the next night, not tire out four of them. The Jays bullpen has thrown the 3rd most innings in the league so everybody has more than their share of regular use. It's easier for most arms to bounce back from 30-45 pitches given a day or two of rest than to be brought back the next night because they threw 15 the night earlier.

92-93 - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#238292) #

Farrell's issue last night was having Francisco warming up to take over for Frasor who had thrown FIVE pitches all because it was a save situation.

BlueJayWay - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#238293) #

Camp got four consecutive grounders and left the game without recording an out. I think that`s just bad luck.

Yeah, but Camp doesn't strike anyone out, so he's always at the mercy of the babip gods. The first hit was a little flare to the outfield, then three straight grounders that just found holes.

Kasi - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#238294) #

Relievers just don't work that way. Not since a decade or two ago. No one manages their bullpen with a bunch of 2-3 inning sessions. They go 1 inning for the most part and that's it. You have a long guy to bridge the gap when the starter goes 3 and then a bunch of 1 inning guys. Occasionally you can squeeze an extra inning out of someone, but no one does that regularly. The people to blame for the overwork of the bullpen is our starting staff for too many times not going deep in games. That's not Farrell's fault

Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#238295) #

if he had left him in to face lefties in 2 of the next three

Yeah, I think we'd all have howled if that happened, and we're all relieved that Farrell has figured out that no lead is large enough to allow Octavio Dotel to face LH batters. I'm not wild about the endless cycling of relievers either, but it seems to have become Standard Operating Procedure for most managers these days. Whatever his flaws and virtues as a manager, it seems pretty clear that Farrell isn't a guy that's going to reinvent the wheel.

92-93 - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#238296) #

Plenty of managers ask for 2 innings from their relievers, even in today's game.

Under Farrell, Dotel has thrown over 20 pitches 5x thus far. As the Pirates closer he did it 6 times in April alone last year.

I'm not asking him to be a long man. I'm asking Farrell to get more than 15 pitches from his relievers, particularly when they are throwing well.

TamRa - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#238297) #

It's too bad Jeroloman is on the DL, JPA could use a couple of weeks there himself. It looks like he needs a break, be it for phsyical or mental reasons.

Point of order - it's Budde in the DL, not Jeroloman.

ayjackson - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#238298) #

Point of order - it's Budde in the DL, not Jeroloman

Thank you. I thought I had read it was Jeroloman. Regardless, it leaves us short at catcher in the upper minors.

Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#238300) #

Plenty of managers ask for 2 innings from their relievers

I can't really believe you're upset because Farrell got Dotel out of tonight's game before the LH batters came up. Octavio Dotel! Left-handed hitters! Nothing good can come of that! So I have to think you're still fuming about him pulling Frasor after 5 pitches the night before. And hey - I feel your pain.

I think there are two things in play here. One, Farrell (like everyone else) is a Slave to the Save, and all we can do is sigh. With a Save situation looming, Francisco got up and got warm. And once he'd done that, Farrell was going to bring him in, even after the save opportunity was gone.

Why? Because pitchers hate getting loose and then being told to sit down, we don't need you. Farrell knows that, Walton knows that, Hentgen knows that. This field management crew is loaded with former pitchers - it's the exact opposite of the previous regime, which was loaded with former hitting coaches (and I say again, a balance somewhere in between makes a little more sense to me.)

92-93 - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#238301) #

It's the principle. I am upset that Dotel came out of tonight's game because it speaks to a larger issue - that Farrell too frequently pulls guys who are pitching effectively very quickly. He micromanages every game like it's the 7th game of the World Series, which I guess is a good thing except for the fact that he's the only person in the Jays hierarchy with intentions of having the club compete this season.

Wouldn't he be the opposite of the Slave to the Save then? Keeping Frasor in would have kept the save opportunity intact. Farrell could be the Ignorer of the Save.

Spifficus - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#238302) #

I have differing views on a few of your posts, 92-93, so I'll amalgamate.

I sure hope you can make a guess as to my reaction, considering I've been begging Farrell to stop cycling through relievers all season.

Haven't you been equally vocal against Farrell using Dotel against lefties of any shape, size, creed, colour or tax bracket? If that's not accurate, I apologize for the mischaracterization.

Farrell's issue last night was having Francisco warming up to take over for Frasor who had thrown FIVE pitches all because it was a save situation.

So you don't like the slave-to-the-save. I'm not a huge fan myself, but players are and Farrell has a clubhouse to manage. Once Francisco was warmed, I have no problem with him coming into the game.

Under Farrell, Dotel has thrown over 20 pitches 5x thus far. As the Pirates closer he did it 6 times in April alone last year.

And he hasn't pitched in 3 different innings in the same game since 2009 (extra innings game, of course). He hasn't done it in a 9 inning game since sept 26th, 2008. Having 2 different cooldown periods and 3 sets of warmup pitches... That strikes me as an unnecessary risk, so why take it unless forced by extras?

smcs - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#238303) #

I'm not asking him to be a long man. I'm asking Farrell to get more than 15 pitches from his relievers, particularly when they are throwing well.

That's the thing. When relievers are pitching well, they don't need a lot of pitches. Those times you cited as Dotel throwing over 20 pitches 5 times last year in April? 2 of them were in blowouts, where the score really didn't matter. This year, his . None of them were more than 3 outs. Well, Dotel has more than 3 outs in 6 different games this year, compared to 5 all of last year. Besides, he's 37 years old and can't get lefties out. The last time he threw significantly more innings than games (averaged more than an inning per game pitched) was in 2004. He's not that pitcher anymore. He has become a right handed Randy Choate.

If Shawn Camp had come in and gotten three quick ground outs, or even one bloop single, followed by a double play and another ground out (which very nearly happened), I would have been annoyed if he had not come out for another inning. He wouldn't have been available tomorrow anyways, might as well save another pitcher. Octavio Dotel being asked to sit twice and then face lefties? No thanks.

Mylegacy - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 02:45 AM EDT (#238304) #

Some observations after having seen our Dear Boys thrash some Cleveland scum and after having consumed two doubles of a particularly smooth Scottish refreshment.

There is ever too much doom and gloom about.

I have been / am / and will continue to be DELIGHTED when I see an OUTSTANDING lead-off man in SS Escobar, followed by a fine LFer Mr Thames, then, playing RF, God (or at least his nearest facsimile in a baseball uniform) and then at first Mr Lind. However, I get positively giddy (in a manly way of giddyness) when I see those four followed in the fifth spot by 3rd baseman Lawrie, then CFer Snider, then either EE or Loewen in a DH platoon followed by Mr D'Arnaud and Mr Hill. I expect there will be no finer one through nine in baseball by mid-2012.

SERIOUSLY - who would have thought that at least one of Rauch, Dotel or Francisco would not be able to SAVE at least an OCCASIONAL game - surely - at least by chance one should have expected better...

Not having Roy and Marcum puts an enormous pressure on Romero - and for the most part - and without bull-pen support - he has manfully done his duty. Morrow has as fine an assortment of "stuff" as any team ('cept perhaps Seattle) might kill for. Villanueva has given us a solid veteran presence. Drabek-Litsch-Stewart have - to date - not been up to the challenge. Of these Drabek still has a chance to be a true talent. By mid-2012 the next THREE pitchers (of our MANY pitching prospects) who CLEARLY appear to have near exceptional stuff, Mr Alvarez, Mr Hutchison and Mr Molina will be ready to begin contributing. As I frequently say - Young pitchers will break your heart. However, if - as I suspect - Romero is soon joined by a more controlled Morrow, and three of Drabek, Alvarez, Hutchison and Molina - then I suspect our Jays will be a bullpen away from DOMINANCE.

Mr AA - your job is to get that bullpen together - either from inside - there are MANY TALENTED arms to begin with - say Mr McGowan for a start...or from free agency, trade or outright larceny (a skill he seems quite adept at).

A baseball season is a marathon - not a sprint. A baseball fan is in it for the decades not the "half-seasons" - Alex is giving us a sophisticated system of building talent that will ensure we excel for years. I have NO doubts.

Whine if you must, snivel if you must - for myself - I prefer to savor a scotch and watch perfection be slowly accumulated right before our eyes. Game after game, year after year. Alex - to quote the immortal Mr Hedley Lamarr - "Go do that Voodoo that you do so well!"

TamRa - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 03:42 AM EDT (#238305) #

My thoughts on Farrell in general is that you expect a first time manager to occasionally screw up and a few weeks ago he identified several games that he himself thought he mishandled the bullpen on - it happens. As long as he's learning from the mistakes, fine by me.

To the specifics. I'll admit Dotel is on a decent little run right now (2 ER in his last 14.1 IP), but the next five batters were L/R/L/S/L - I have to call BS on ANY argument that Farrell should have left Dotel in for that. it smacks of a biased "the manager can do no right" attitude.

I agree about removing Frasor, although I think that has more to do with "If I warm him I'm using him" than slave-to-the-save (not to say the latter isn't true of him)

As Wilner argued after Thursday's game, it's the way the game is played and you will stir up all manner of drama if you say "screw the save" and while i'd be kinda impressed to see a manager have the stones to do it, it's like longing for the four man rotation - don't hold your breath.

So bashing Farrell to the extent he plays to the same flawed paradigm as every other manager in the game strikes me as kinda silly. Bash the paradigm, sure, but if I'm gonna trash the manager it's when he does something clearly wrong that most other managers would never have done.

In the most specific terms, putting Frankie in wasn't a mistake - having him warming arguably was.

Still, the Cleveland loss is on Frank, IMO. for whatever reason his velocity was down and it showed (maybe that's something that ought to have been identified in the pen and Pat reports to Farrell he better stick with Frasor?)

TamRa - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 03:47 AM EDT (#238306) #

Fascinating piece by Bob Elliot

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2011/07/07/18390686.html

Although I'd probably prefer a Bell/Mosbey/Barfield comparison....still, it's kinda interesting to think about. i had assumed Brisker was a marginal guy and not really in the class of the other three there.

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 04:07 AM EDT (#238307) #

maybe that's something that ought to have been identified in the pen

That would be nice if it were possible. There are simply too many (roughly a gazillion, to be precise) tales of guys who had nothing while warming up in the pen, but then came into the game and blew the other team away. And those are matched by the stories of the guys who were absolutely on fire while warming up in the pen only to get lit up themselves once it mattered.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 06:30 AM EDT (#238308) #

Dotel should almost never be used against LHB. Maybe, once in a blue moon, he can be permitted to face a LHB without power in order to get to more RHB. That is all.

My biggest complaint about Farrell is that he's not very imaginative (or sabermetrically-intelligent) in his bullpen management. For example, did he really need to see Dotel suck against lefty batters for a couple of months before figuring out that he shouldn't be facing them? All he needed to do was check the stats from the last three years. It's almost as though Farrell needs to see repeated debacles/meltdowns from each player before he realizes not to use him in a particular situation.

I think some of this flaw spills over into his management of the offence and defence as well, but that's another post altogether.

My preference would be to have someone like Joe Maddon leading the renaissance - brainy, daring, experienced, sabermetrically-inclined, versed in the fundamentals.

scottt - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 06:37 AM EDT (#238309) #

I'm with Mylegacy. When was the last time the Jays hitters were that good one trough 4? Snider and Lawrie could make it 1 through 6. JPA is usually better than the catcher on the opposing team. That just leave the weak production from CF and 2B.

Dave Till - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#238310) #

That just leave the weak production from CF and 2B.

But that's the hard part, unfortunately: championship teams have good centre fielders and second basemen. The Jays have Rajai Davis, and (sadly) the remnants of Aaron Hill.

Because of what has gone before under previous administrations and owners, one of my (pessimistic) thoughts when the Jays went into their recent tailspin was: "When will Jose Bautista demand to be traded to a contender?" I don't think he actually wants out, but the thought did cross my mind that he looked like a diamond surrounded by large lumps of coal.

BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#238311) #

I don't think Bautista will be demanding a trade anytime soon. He bounced around forever and he knows the Jays are the only ones who really gave him a shot. He doesn't seem like the type to turn around and abandon the team. Same thing with Halladay - he was drafted and developed by the Jays, and they stuck with him and turned his career completely around. He only left after not once but twice signing extensions, and knowing Ricciardi was on the way out and the team still going nowhere.

Chuck - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#238312) #

There is ever too much doom and gloom about.

Rog, you are the yang to Kafka's yin.

Been giving some thought to a Metamorphosis metaphor. Perhaps an adolescent Jon went to bed one night and awoke as an oversized Rauch?

mathesond - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#238313) #

As far as Kafka goes, perhaps this book might supply a better metaphor?

http://kockroach.com/content/index.asp

ayjackson - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#238315) #

Defensive and bullpen meltdowns aside, this team has a lot going for it right now. So many potential regulars and stars cutting their teeth in the majors or with in a year-and-a-half of doing so (Snider, Thames, JPA, Lawrie, D'Arnaud, Gose, McDade, Hechavarria, Cooper, Alvarez, Jenkins, Carreno). When was the last time we were in that situation? With a 3-4 hole in the lineup as strong as its been since (ever?). Certainly since Green/Delgado. And under contract for years.

Then we have so much lower minors depth and figure to have a number of picks next year as well. (I know many think you can't offer these miscreants arb because they'll accept, but I disagree. You can cut them in ST and they only receive one sixth of their arb award and then they're faced with trying to find a club and a major league deal in ST where few are usually available. If you have 4 Type B FA's each due $3m in arb offers, the cost of cutting them all in ST is only $2m should they all accept. Chances are they try to find a guaranteed contract at the beginning of FA rather than find one in mid-March.)

Finally, Villanueva and Reyes are almost certainly not in the long term plans for the club and will be in demand this month due to the scarcity of available starting pitching in the majors. Definitely a chance to add a couple of more prospects.

Chuck - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#238316) #

Villanueva and Reyes are almost certainly not in the long term plans for the club and will be in demand this month

Villaneuva has been terrific, though now would definitely seem the opportune sell-high moment.

ayjackson - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#238317) #

Agreed Chuck. I think you don't even want to wait for the offseason.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#238320) #

I wonder about Villanueva. He's still only 27 and is pitching really well. Maybe he's just starting to put it all together. The thing is, if you trade him, you probably don't get much in return, because he doesn't have brilliant stuff or a long track record of success. On the other hand, if you keep him, you might have an effective #4 or 5 starter for a couple of seasons (especially given all the uncertainty around Drabek, Cecil, et al). Might as well gamble that he *is* good, rather than cut bait for a so-so return.

Flex - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#238321) #

Agree wholeheartedly with greenfrog. I find the constant desire to turn useful players into "assets" perplexing. As soon as someone's good people want to flip him for something unproven.

It's one thing when the good to be flipped is 30 or 31 years old, but Villanueva could be here for a while. I say be happy that the team acquired a player who turned out to be better than expected.

ayjackson - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#238322) #

I think the chances of Villanueva still producing these results in a year from now are slim. And I do think he could return a decent prospect due to the scarcity and demand for starting pitching right now. I think he is surplus to requirements for 2012 and beyond and if a good offer does come in, we should take it.

Chuck - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#238323) #

Villaneuva has had an odd season. His once high K/9 is at an all-time personal low. At the same time, his BB/9 is now very good and his HR/9 excellent, half of what it used to be.

Is there cause and effect here whereby his presumably changed approach has yielded better results at the cost of fewer strikeouts? Or is this simply an illusory 3-month stretch with an unsustainable BABIP and HR/9?

I'd say that you don't move him just to move him, but that you find out how desperate contenders are to fill their rotation with a pitcher on a magical run and see what you can pry from them. If I were a betting man, I'd say that Villaneuva is more likely to yield a second-half ERA closer to 4.50 than where it is now. I hope I'm wrong because he's fun to watch and to root for.

Mike Green - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#238327) #

Villanueva's W and K rates are relatively consistent with his career (once one makes the relief-to-start adjustment), with his W rate being somewhat better. What is most noticeable is the improvement in the HR rate. His HR/fly rate is at a very low 4.9% and his IF fly rate is at a very high 18.6%. This is suggestive that he has better control within the strike zone, as well as being lucky.

I'll mark him down for a 3.8 ERA (he has a 3.67 ERA in a starting role this year) the rest of the way, and for next year. To my mind, the big issue with him is (like for almost every other pitcher) health and durability. I wouldn't be in a rush to trade him, but if the right offer came along...

dawgatc - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#238328) #

I think you would have to package Villanueva with Davis or Molina to get back a decent prospect - maybe to a team like the Giants who need a catcher for a good run at the series again this year-how about Davis,Molina and Villanueva for madison bumgartner-That still leaves the giants with Lincecum;Sanchez;Cain;Vogelsong and Villanueva who they can move back into the pen for the playoffs

Ron - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#238330) #

But that's the hard part, unfortunately: championship teams have good centre fielders and second basemen. The Jays have Rajai Davis, and (sadly) the remnants of Aaron Hill.

The last team to win the World Series had Aaron Rowand and Freddy Sanchez as their starting CF and 2B. You don't need a good CF and 2B to win the World Series. Heck the team that last won the World Series had 1 good hitter surrounded with a steaming pile of garbage in the rest of the batting order.

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#238331) #

1 good hitter surrounded with a steaming pile of garbage in the rest of the batting order.

I assume Aubrey Huff, who led the team with an OPS+ of 138, was the one good hitter. And that Pat Burrell (OPS+ 133), Buster Posey (130), and Andres Torres (120) were the stinky garbage?

It was a top-heavy offense that still produced almost exactly the league average number of runs. (It was the pitchers that were special, as we all realize.)

Chuck - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#238332) #

how about Davis,Molina and Villanueva for madison bumgartner

Pass the Dutchie on the left hand side.

Ryan Day - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#238334) #

I wonder if teams (including the Jays) see Villanueva as a starter for the rest of the season. His career high in innings is 114, and that was in 2007; he's on pace for 142, but that includes the time he spent in the bullpen. Will he still have any juice by September?

BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#238335) #

The last team to win the World Series had Aaron Rowand and Freddy Sanchez as their starting CF and 2B. You don't need a good CF and 2B to win the World Series. Heck the team that last won the World Series had 1 good hitter surrounded with a steaming pile of garbage in the rest of the batting order.

The Giants won the WS after gaining entry to the playoffs by winning the NL West. In the playoffs, anything can happen, as we all know. They rode awesome pitching and just enough hitting to the end.

However. The Jays can't gain entry to the playoffs via the NL West. The Jays have to be better than the 2010 Giants to get there.

ayjackson - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#238337) #

Well we don't know what the Jays will have to do to get to the playoffs because we don't know how realignment will work.

And there definitely was and is a steaming pile of garbage around Posey in SF, every once in a while, the wind just blows in the right direction and it doesn't stink.

Ryan Day - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#238339) #

Tampa played in the AL East and made it to the playoffs with Sean Rodriguez at 2nd, and a parade of designated hitters who couldn't even slug .350.

Every team has holes. You just need to have enough strengths to balance it out.

Thomas - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#238345) #

Every team has holes. You just need to have enough strengths to balance it out.

This. There are many different roster permeations where the Jays could win the World Series with Davis and Hill starting. Strong pitching. Strong defence. Stars up the middle. There's no universal path to success, except to ,ake the playoffs any way you can and hope the players play well during October.

If Rajai Davis played like he did during this past week (10 for 23 with 4 2B, 6 SB and 1 CS) in an ALDS, ALCS or WS, he'd be a huge asset.

BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#238359) #

Well we don't know what the Jays will have to do to get to the playoffs because we don't know how realignment will work.

What realignment.

This. There are many different roster permeations where the Jays could win the World Series with Davis and Hill starting. Strong pitching. Strong defence. Stars up the middle.

Sure, but what I was reponding to was this: Heck the team that last won the World Series had 1 good hitter surrounded with a steaming pile of garbage in the rest of the batting order.

That simply won't work in this division. I fully agree that the Jays could win the WS with Davis and Hill starting for them. But the rest of the team would have to be pretty formidable.

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#238360) #

Checking on Pat Burrell, I noticed that he's been a starting outfielder on two World Series wining teams - and that Burrell himself went 1-27 with 1 RBI in those two World Series. Which is truly a piece of stinking garbage, and surely I could find many pitchers who out hit Burrell in the WS. And naturally, the very first one I looked at had done so - Whitey Ford went 4-49 in the WS, drove in 3 runs and - here's the thing - drew 7 bases on balls.

It turns out that this was part of Ford's skill set. His career numbers (in 1208 plate appearances) as a hitter were .173/.256/.200 - he drew 113 walks in his career.

What the hell. He was a .173 hitter with no power. You couldn't throw three fastballs down the middle?

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#238363) #

Incidentally, to the best of my knowledge, the all-time leader for Walks Drawn as a pitcher is 169 by Red Faber (who missed the 1919 World Series with arm troubles, lucky him.) Ford is just outside the Top 10, which is still pretty good - he doesn't make the Top 100 in innings pitched.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#238369) #

Off-topic, but the AL MVP race is shaping up to be an interesting one (obviously with half a season still to go).

In A-Gon's favour: first in BA, doubles, RBI and hits, a very good first baseman, the best hitter on the first-place team in baseball's toughest division.

In Joey's favour: first in HR, walks, OBP, SLG and OBP, second in runs scored, a good RF, a versatile defender, and a clubhouse leader (and mentor to Yunel).

Who do you love? Gonzalez was my pre-season prediction for MVP, and I'm tempted to say he deserves it based on what he's meant to the Red Sox. But Jose's numbers are simply too good to be ignored. His OBP is about 50 points higher than AG's, and his SLG is almost 100 points higher. He's having an out-and-out dominant season. Besides, I don't really care about RBIs. At least at this point in the season, Bautista is more deserving.

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#238370) #

Don't forget Gonzalez's massive lead in grounding into double plays (20-5), which is actually a pretty big deal.

If the Red Sox swapped Gonzalez for Bautista they certainly wouldn't be tied for first place. They'd have a three game lead.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#238374) #

Ah, the rally-killing GIDP. Memories of Lyle Overbay.

So, does this mean that Camp is the new chair of the Jays' closer-by-committee?

scottt - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#238377) #

That just means that Farell is out of options.

Third blown saves for Rauch.

Too bad, Moreau deserved the win here.

Glevin - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#238379) #

"So, does this mean that Camp is the new chair of the Jays' closer-by-committee?"

Had no idea what was going through Farrell's head tonight. Dotel has been the Jays' best reliever recently and has been a closer before. You think he would have gotten the nod over even Rauch who has never inspired confidence. Once they took the lead, I was shocked to see Camp who couldn't get a single out yesterday. He got the save, but Frasor and Dotel are the guys I have the most confidence in.

scottt - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#238380) #

It looks like Frank is getting a time out, but he should be back at it shortly.

In the meanwhile, we should see Rauch and Dotel get some chances. Maybe Frasor too.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#238381) #

Dotel wasn't an option. The first two Cleveland hitters in the 10th were lefty bats. Facing Dotel is like BP for LHBs.

Glevin - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#238382) #

"At least at this point in the season, Bautista is more deserving."

It depends on what MVP means (as always). Bautista has clearly been the best hitter in baseball but the Jays are 3 games under .500. I don't like giving MVPs to players on non-competitive teams because I take the award to mean most valuable rather than best. I would also have Miguel and Asdrubal Cabrera and Granderson in the MVP race although it's very early still.

92-93 - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#238383) #

No reason to yank Morrow. He cruised through the 8th, hitting 96. Let him start the 9th and have your backup reliever getting warm behind him.

We've become conditioned to the babying of arms at the MLB level and it's done nothing to prevent injuries.

Mike Green - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#238384) #

"Too bad, Moreau deserved the win here. "

He'll have to settle for poutine then. Bienvenu a Toronto, M. Brandon.

At Salsa on St. Clair tonight, the band wore Blue Jay caps. This bodes well for the ongoing efforts in the international free agent market. I imagine that Bautista's remarkable season won't hurt either.

Kasi - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#238385) #

There was every reason to pull Morrow. He was at 109 pitches already. I don't like running our starters into the 125+ range if you can help it. Sure Halladay can do it, but Morrow was on the DL not too long ago. Prefer he doesn't get on there again.

smcs - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#238389) #

I don't like giving MVPs to players on non-competitive teams because I take the award to mean most valuable rather than best.

So you would rather give it to the player with the better teammates? Jose Bautista shouldn't win because Aaron Hill and Rajai Davis are inferior to Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury? Magpie nailed it above: the Sox would absolutely trade Gonzalez for Bautista. If Joey Bats keeps hitting at this rate, then he should win the MVP in a walk. Gonzalez has also benefited greatly from a stunning .395 BABIP. Adrian Gonzalez is a very, very, very good player, one of the five best players in the AL for sure, but he has not been better, and he has not been more valuable, than Bautista.

Ron - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#238392) #

I assume Aubrey Huff, who led the team with an OPS+ of 138, was the one good hitter. And that Pat Burrell (OPS+ 133), Buster Posey (130), and Andres Torres (120) were the stinky garbage?

It was a top-heavy offense that still produced almost exactly the league average number of runs. (It was the pitchers that were special, as we all realize.)

Fine fine fine, it was Posey with 3 guys that had a solid regular season and a bunch of scrubs. It's going to be years before we see another team win the World Series with that kind of hitting lineup.

Paul D - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#238393) #

I don't like giving MVPs to players on non-competitive teams because I take the award to mean most valuable rather than best.

This comes up every year, but it seems pretty clear to me that Bautista has been both the most valuable and the best.

Magpie - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#238394) #

I don't like giving MVPs to players on non-competitive teams because I take the award to mean most valuable rather than best.

You're saying that Adrian Gonzalez is more valuable than Jose Bautista because - and only because - Jacoby Ellsbury is better than Rajai Davis, and Kevin Youkilis is better than Edwin Encarnacion.

That seems strange.

Magpie - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#238395) #

It's going to be years before we see another team win the World Series with that kind of hitting lineup.

Yeah, but probably not very many. Teams with league average offenses (the Giants scored 697 runs, NL average was 701) win championships every few years or so. The 2006 Cardinals, the 2003 Marlins.

It is more unusual for a team with a significantly below-average offense to win a title. That hasn't happened since the 2005 White Sox.

hypobole - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#238396) #

I don't like giving MVPs to players on non-competitive teams because I take the award to mean most valuable rather than best.

Neither of the terms "most valuable" or "the best" have anything to do with team competitiveness. What you are really saying is you just don't like to give MVP's to players of non-competitive teams, period. That is not an uncommon feeling among voters as well.

Per Fangraphs WAR, Jose has accumulated 6.2 WAR so far, with the second best on the team being Yunel Escobar at 2.7. Gonzales has 4.7 WAR, Ellsbury 4.5, Pedroia 4.4, Youkilis 2.9, and Ortiz 2.8. This tells me three things. First, Gonzalez is barely the most valuable on his own team, and could easily be the 3rd most valuable. Second is that Bautista is far more valuable to the Jays than Gonzalez is to the Sox. And the third is that Bautista has simply been far more valuable a player than Gonzalez has been this year.

Glevin - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 05:25 AM EDT (#238399) #

"Neither of the terms "most valuable" or "the best" have anything to do with team competitiveness. What you are really saying is you just don't like to give MVP's to players of non-competitive teams, period. That is not an uncommon feeling among voters as well."

That's exactly what I'm saying. And yes, it's unfair for Bautista that his teammates aren't better just like it's unfair for Sabathia that he pitches in a hitter's park or unfair for Felix that his offense is terrible. Bautista has provided the most to his team, but so what? The difference between 73 wins and 83 wins is going to be completely meaningless this year. So, without Bautista the Jays would be a bad team not near the playoffs and with him they'll be a better team not near the playoffs. The Jays have been out of it all year and for all of Bautsita's incredible value, it won't matter one iota. I liken the trophy to the Conn Smythe (Which goes to the player most valuable to his team in the playoffs, very similar wording " most valuable" to the baseball trophy). In 1989-1990, John Druce scored 14 goals in 15 games. He was the best player in the playoffs. So, he should have won the Conn Smythe even though the team was swept in the conference finals right? He shouldn't be punished because Nick Kypereos wasn't Mark Messier and Don Beaupre wasn't Bill Ranford? Right? Hell, Theo Fleury a few years later had a ridiculous first round before Calgary got eliminated. Why should he be punished because of his team? I just don't believe the most valuable player should come from a team that is not in a real pennant race (and usually from a playoff team).

BTW I hate WAR. I hate it because I hate how it attempts to boil down all of baseball into one statistic and it just ends up looking silly. Bautista has been unarguably the best player in baseball, so I am not saying this as a specific thing, rather as a general rule. (And anything that uses defensive statistics in it is always going to be seriously flawed.)

BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#238403) #

"I just don't believe...blah blah blah"

And that's the problem. People go into this discussion with a belief what the MVP is supposed to be, or isn't supposed to be. There's no actual definition of "most valuable".

Paul D - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#238406) #

The difference between 73 wins and 83 wins is going to be completely meaningless this year.

I'll actually be 10 wins, which is a huge amount.

Thomas - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#238407) #

I liken the trophy to the Conn Smythe (Which goes to the player most valuable to his team in the playoffs, very similar wording " most valuable" to the baseball trophy).

Why not liken it to the Hart Trophy? You know, the regular season MVP award for the NHL (which this year went to a player whose team finished in a three-way tie for fourth place in the conference). MLB has playoff MVP awards, as well.

Chuck - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#238410) #

BTW I hate WAR. I hate it because I hate how it attempts to boil down all of baseball into one statistic and it just ends up looking silly.

You hate because you disagree with the methodology? Or you hate it because you oppose the concept in principle?

bpoz - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#238412) #

2 Gms separate SF & Arizona, so both teams should be buyers at the July 31 deadline. As well as many other teams.
I would love to see another Gose type acquisition by the Jays. AA admitted that he missed a few opportunities last year but did not elaborate.
Gose for Wallace via Houston, everyone happy. Wallace was AA's to give up. I IMAGINE the failed opportunities could in part be that AA did not have the trading parts necessary to close the deals. This year I expect more success, AA has stock piled parts and should be able to get the players F,G,H & I that he wants by adding Parts A,B,C,D & E and then flipping them with the parts he already owns.

OK so that means more than 1 Gose type deal.

Jonny German - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#238416) #

WAR assumes it knows a lot more about defence than it actually does. And it's got way too much secret sauce in it.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#238417) #

I liked the lineup today, with Patterson for Encarnacion and Thames DHing. It's a twist on a platoon, and it works for me. I am hoping it continues until Lawrie arrives.

What a difference it makes to have two actual hitters at the top of the order. Reyes to the pen and Zep to the rotation, and the club would be in pretty good shape.

Chuck - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#238418) #

I'm impressed that Farrell resisted the "temptation" to bat Patterson 2nd and Thames 6th or 7th. Nothing wrong with a number two hitter who gets on base and has some pop. Thames in the 2-hole indefinitely works for me. And I'm also impressed that Davis seems entrenched at #9 in the order. He is a very poor man's leadoff hitter and as such, should bat 9th, not 1st.

It will be interesting to see how bullpen responsibilities are rejigged after the ASG. The savemeisters are currently the least effective men in the pen.

92-93 - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#238419) #

Thames' high K rate and lack of walks is a cause for concern if he's going to stay in the #2 spot.

Aaron Hill should not be anywhere near the middle of the order. If Farrell needs to break up Lind-Snider, use Encarnacion or Arencibia to do it. Hill has been consistently poor for 9 months now and should bat 7th or 8th.

Thomas - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#238420) #

Reyes to the pen and Zep to the rotation, and the club would be in pretty good shape.

Do you see any signs that the Jays are considering moving Zep to the rotation? This isn't to say that they aren't contemplating it, but I haven't seen any indication they're going to do anything but let him continue to be a reliever for at least the rest of the season.

China fan - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#238421) #

The return of Casey Janssen is the immediate issue that needs to be addressed in the bullpen. The Jays need him back in the pen as soon as his rehab is finished, which should be this week. He's been one of the few reliable relievers this year, so he needs to be reinserted in the pen. The question is who to move to make room for him. Until recently, we might have assumed Luis Perez would be optioned out. But he's been improving and looking good, and he's a leftie. So I think he stays. My guess is that Anthopoulos will be burning up the phones over the all-star break, seeing who might be in the market for a veteran reliever. By now there might be a market for Rauch or Francisco, even if it's just a C prospect. Yes, the Jays could keep them around in hopes of getting a compensation pick, but it's far from certain that they will refuse arbitration. Why take the risk of being saddled with their contracts in 2012 if you can dump them now? So I hope Anthopoulos works his magic and trades one of the veteran relievers and makes room for Janssen.

After that, yes, ultimately Reyes to the bullpen -- but probably to make room for Drabek in the rotation. And again that will require the trading or dumping of a veteran reliever. So AA should be burning up the wires this week.

92-93 - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#238422) #

It will be nice to have Janssen back, he was probably the team's best reliever when he went down. Perez blowing 2 games in 5 days makes this a pretty easy decision, so unless Farrell is comfortable with a McDonald-Patterson-Molina bench I expect Perez to get the axe.

TamRa - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 03:41 AM EDT (#238423) #

one can never really predict what AA is going to do so this would be more general than specific...but what seems like a logical future to me is:

a. one reliever will be dealt within a week after the break from the potential free agents; NO way to predict who.

b. Reyes will be dealt (unless there's a notable injury) within the last week before the deadline. and for a good return.

c. Encarnacion will be marketed between now and the deadline but he won't be dumped. if he's still here on August 1 He'll be run through waivers and the attempt will continue. If he's claimed they will make a deal because AA will want to see Loewen/Cooper in Toronto and he needs every spare roster spot.

d. a second reliever from the potential free agents MAY be dealt if AA get's an offer he likes, which he just might. He still need an extra spot if Villianueva has to go back to the 'pen in consideration of the innings total. In theory, Dotel and Rauch probably have the best value this month and would be the two I'd expect to see dealt.

e. there's an outside chance that a team might ask for and make an appealing offer for Cooper or Brad Mills at the deadline, though they are not the sort usually dealt for in July.

By August, the rotation will probably be back to the opening day configuration, and the pen will rely on Zep, Perez, Villiaueva, Janssen and three of the potential free agents, with Farquhar and/or Mills the next option if help is needed. If Zep ever starts again, it won't be this year.

Before September arrives, Lawrie and Loewen will be on the major league roster (McCoy and EE won't be) and there's a better than 50/50 chance that Patterson will be waived/dealt in August to make room for Cooper.

So in my little fantasy we get 4 or 5 deals to look forward to over the next six weeks or so.

for a bonus, look for McCoy, Jeroloman, Farquhar, Mills, and Stewart to be added to the September roster.

scottt - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 06:25 AM EDT (#238424) #

Let's not forget Litsch.

Chuck - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#238426) #

Thames' high K rate and lack of walks is a cause for concern if he's going to stay in the #2 spot.

Oh, I agree, but on this team, with this particular collection of players, he's a suitable candidate.

When Lawrie comes up, I imagine Farrell will bat him near the bottom of the order, to ease him in. While the temptation might be to eventually move him to the top of the order, perhaps the 2 spot, I wonder if he wouldn't be more valuable in the middle of the order, breaking up the lefties (a role that has fallen onto Hill for some reason).

Mike Green - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#238429) #

I don't see any signs that the club intends to move Zep to the rotation, except for the fact that the club has finally made a serious of logical moves and the time is right. The market for Reyes, while slightly better than the market for Rivera, is likely to be revealed as hum-drum.

Shane - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#238433) #

"I'm impressed that Farrell resisted the "temptation" to bat Patterson 2nd and Thames 6th or 7th."

Thames is hitting 308/357/519 and Patterson is hitting 258/292/519. If Farrell had done hit Patterson 2nd, Farrell should have been fired emmediately.

Shane - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#238435) #

Crap. Multi brain tasking fail. Patterson's slugging is only .393. So Patterson is @ .258./292/.393.

MatO - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#238436) #

If the old saw is to be believed then sinkerballers like Rzepczynski need to have "tired arms" to be most effective. It does seem to me that when he comes into a game as a reliever he's too strong and is throwing too hard.

bpoz - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#238438) #

In our 5 man rotation right now, I see a lock for #1&2.Romero, Morrow because he so close to being V good except for the inconsistency. The next 3 spots have candidates that can make a case.Cecil is getting good results, but his FB velocity is still a possible problem, Carlos V & Reyes are getting good results, Litsch when healthy is good.
IP limits will remove Reyes & Carlos V, IMO their limit is about 150 innings. Carlos V has great trade value right now because he is having a good season and can help a contender. Next year without any IP limits both Reyes & Carlos V have the potential to solidify any rotation if healthy & able to repeat this years performance. Both are cheap & may be the equal of maybe 50% of other teams #4 or even #3, the AL East factor would make them better too.

I respect Wilner's opinion, so when 1 of his listeners pointedly asked if he knew AA's pen construction philosophy, Wilner replied that the FA vets were signed for the potential draft picks.
Before the season AA said he wanted a pen that had 7 V good options for his manager. So the loss of Gregg & Downs had to be replaced. The late addition of FF was a potential dominating closer, stuff wise, he was cheaper than Napoli as well. With Fraser that makes 4 with closing experience. Camp proved valuable last year, with LH Zep & Purcey, Carlos V & Janssen the pen looked talented but crowded. I doubt any in our pen had as good a season as Janssen's 2007, but a repeat was improbable. IMO Janssen was still going to be one of our best RPs. The depth & quality of the 2011 pen easily thumps the 2010 pen's 6&7, Accardo & M Valdez. So on paper I must say that AA's 2011 pen construction BLEW away his 2010 pen construction.

Shane - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#238442) #

"IP limits will remove Reyes & Carlos V, IMO their limit is about 150 innings. Carlos V has great trade value right now because he is having a good season and can help a contender."

Well, if Villanueva is going to be sought after by org's in contention, it really can only to be used as a reliever. Inadvertently you were making that point. Sort of weird to trade for a starter when he's going to have to be used as a reliever.

Chuck - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#238454) #

A team could trade for Villaneuva without caring to nurture him. They may elect to throw him into the rotation and let the chips fall where they may after the season is done. That said, other GMs may be leary of just how long Villaneuva could last without eventually falling apart this season.

bpoz - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#238458) #

Shane you are correct. But I was still thinking of Carlos V as a starter. The IP limit destroys my thinking. But 80 more IP brings his total to 160 IP, that is about 12-13 starts, but it probably won't work. What should his safe IP limit be?

Spifficus - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#238462) #

A team with an injured starter, or questions in both the rotation and bullpen, could be a good fit for Villaneuva's flexibility. My personal hope was that the Rockies claw their way back into it and have relatively given up on Fowler... Doesn't look like they want to cooperate, though, at 8.5 back.

TamRa - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#238473) #

I shall amend my last previous post to suggest that McGowan will be with the jays in September and get at least one start and probably three.

Also, I would not be at all shocked to see Carlos V traded, but there's no urgency - it would be a matter of getting a nice offer.

scottt - Monday, July 11 2011 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#238477) #

Villanueva would be attractive to a contender, but I wonder what the return would be. I suppose the Jays could use another middle infield prospect, and of course a near MLB ready pitcher, but would anyone trade one?

Mid year trade are usually expensive veterans and uncertain prospects. Like when the Jays traded Stairs for basically nothing in the end.

China fan - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#238501) #

People keep assuming that Villanueva has peaked and will inevitably decline and should be traded or shuffled back to the bullpen. It's a little like the assumptions about Bautista a year ago -- the assumption that career performance, rather than the current season, is the only guide to future performance. Sometimes it's true that players revert to career norms, but sometimes a player improves, even at an age where we assume the improvements are over. In the case of Villanueva, he won't have a lot of trade value if other teams are skeptical about him. It makes more sense to keep him on the Jays and see whether he is establishing a new level of performance.

Over the past 5 games as a starter, Villanueva has a 2.84 ERA and is holding the opposition to an OPS of .620. Each one of those 5 starts has been a quality start. Maybe he can't continue at this pace. But if he continues at anything close to this pace, the Jays have found an extremely valuable starter. It makes more sense to nurture that performance, as long as it continues.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#238503) #

If the club does decide to "shuffle" Villanueva back to the bullpen to keep his seasonal innings within reasonable distance of his career highs, may I suggest that a high leverage role (ace, closer, whatever) would be appropriate. The second coming of Firpo Marberry. And if the club did do that, the player I would nominate to fill his rotation slot would be Jason Frasor. If you're going to pay him the big bucks and he can't close, why not try half a season with him rather than forcing Drabek or Litsch?

It is however most likely that the club will see if Villanueva can handle 170 innings, and hold on until the rosters expand in September.

Matthew E - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#238505) #

The thing for me about Villanueva is that he hasn't been striking out all that many guys. I'd have to go back and check, but I think that as a starter, he's walked more than he's struck out, hasn't he? (And I think the same thing applies to Jo-Jo Reyes.) I don't want to put any weight on a guy like that: enjoy it while it's working, but have plan B ready to go.

Hodgie - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#238506) #

I would be a little surprised if inning limitations are a consideration with Villanueva. As specious as the so-called Verducci Effect is, even it only portends dire consequences for pitchers 25 and younger and that ship has long sailed for Carlos. Absent any significant injury history I don't see why he wouldn't be able to pitch out the year in the rotation if necessary.

MatO - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#238509) #

No. His K/BB as a starter are 33/13 over 54 IP. His K rate has declined as a starter but that's been accompanied by a decline in his BB rate as well.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#238510) #

For those at home, Villanueva's K rate as a starter is 5.5. Any resemblance between Carlos and Jimmy Key is purely statistical.

Chuck - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#238516) #

For me, Villaneuva's biggest red flag is his extremely low HR rate. I can't see that being sustainable. Reminds me of last year's version of Clay Buchholz.

bpoz - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#238518) #

Fantastic point CF, especially with the 5 gm 2.84 era. I have been one who has been pushing hard to trade him, I am less sure now. I put a lot of faith in results especially if they are consistent and at the ML level. I have seen potential not be realized, IMO K Escobar, maybe D Purcey.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#238524) #

Villanueva is just 27, so he is in his prime and should have a few solid years if he is for real. Reyes is just 26, the same as Romero & Morrow. The big issue is the low K rate though as K rate has been shown to be a good predictor of future success (unless mixed with an extreme walk issue).

Right now for walk rate the lowest for Jay starters...

2.6: Villanueva (2.2 as a starter)
2.7: Stewart (just 3 starts)
3.0: Reyes
3.3: Romero
3.5: Litsch
3.6: Morrow
4.1: Cecil (3.5 since return so still high)
6.4: Drabek

So for control Reyes & Villanueva are tops here.

K/9...
Morrow: 10.6
Romero: 7.4
Cecil: 7.2
Litsch: 7.0
Villanueva: 6.2 (5.5 as starter)
Drabek: 5.9
Stewart: 5.4
Reyes: 5.3

So going through those I'd put Reyes as the biggest risk to keep. iirc rates below 5.5 are viewed as dangerous (counting too much on defense to survive unless extreme ground ball pitcher or knuckleballer). Villanueva is on the edge. Thus if I was an adviser to AA I'd say look for a deal where you get a B prospect (equal to a sandwich pick I'd figure) for Villanueva and/or Reyes but if 'stuck' with them it isn't a bad thing as they could hold on for a few years due to being in their prime despite the low K rate.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#238525) #

If a C prospect for Reyes could be obtained, I would be happier than a Tory in a fighter jet photo op.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#238526) #

C'mon, given AA's ability to trade the untradable (Wells) one has to expect more. Pujols for Reyes should be the starting point, although I'd be satisfied if he grabbed Longoria even with that long contract :)

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#238528) #

After last year, I would be surprised to see a reliever dealt unless the Jays are unlikely to offer arbitration (quite possible in the case of at least a couple of relievers). Seems AA would prefer a sandwich pick (sensibly, in my view) to a borderline prospect from another organization. Doubt that even Frasor would net a good prospect - teams barely give up good prospects for stud players anymore.

92-93 - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#238529) #

The difference between Villanueva and Bautista is that with Bautista the fundamentals were there to believe that the current performance could be close to repeated; he walked very often, almost as often as he Kd, displaying power along with the patience but was victimized by some poor BABIP luck. Villanueva, however, isn't missing bats or keeping the ball on the ground, 2 of the main things you look for in a pitcher. Sure, the 13 BB in 54 IP as a starter works, but beyond that Villanueva's numbers aren't very impressive (especially the 22% LD), and suggest that when things even out he'll be looking like a #4/#5 at best. Which is by no means a bad thing, and has plenty of value to a team, but isn't something you'd hesitate to move if a team was offering the right chip in return.

It's certainly worth mentioning, though, that since becoming a starter Villanueva has been the team's best pitcher, giving up more than 4 runs in 1 out of 9 starts, a start the team won anyway. They are 6-3 in his starts.

I'd rather watch paint dry than Jason Frasor attempting to start. That certainly came out of left field, as it were.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#238531) #

It is true that Frasor's pacing in a relief role is hard to watch. I am not sure that his pacing would remain as slow if he were to be moved to the rotation. Never mind, it's idle speculation at this point.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#238538) #

Frasor probably doesn't waste as much time as Juan Guzman did, but I doubt if he has enough different pitches to be effective as a starter. And who knows what his fastball will look like if he has to throw it 70 times in a game instead of 15 times. Never going to happen anyway.

But, and despite the fact that it definitely didn't work for him in the (allegedly) weaker league, Villanueva actually is the type of pitcher who is usually more effective as a starter. He's someone without one single outstanding pitch but a guy who succeeds by mixing in several. And while he's been lucky with the balls in play, it is true that a guy who pitches ahead of the hitters will always give up fewer line drives than a guy who always pitches from behind.

DaveB - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#238539) #

Villanueva may not have brilliant stuff but he has enough different stuff to be effective in almost any role. He put up good numbers as a young starter (21 years old) in High A (112.1 IP, 78 H, 2.32 ERA, 32/124 BB/K) and (22 years old) in Triple A (66.1 IP, 42 H, 2.71 ERA, 26/61 BB/K) before getting sidetracked to the Milwaukee bullpen. He's now getting the opportunity he perhaps should have had two or three years ago and I think it would be a big mistake to either move him back to the bullpen anytime soon or think of him as an easily-replaced part.

His strikeout rate was bound to decline with the extra starter innings. He's now at a ML career high for starter innings but considering his age, career arm health and easy delivery he should be good for another 80-90 innings. He's made at least one key change this year -- he's relying more on his fastball than in recent seasons (like most of the pitching staff) and getting a high rate of popups, a good sign that he's keeping batters off-balance with different fastball velocity and good location of all four pitches. According to Fangraphs his LD rate is a respectable 18.6%, second-best among Jays' starters and typically what you would get from Marcum. I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a good (B) prospect or versatile, young ML position player.

Parker - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#238546) #

If Villaneuva is moved back to the bullpen, then won't an existing reliever have to be moved to make room for him? (barring injuries) I'd prefer the Jays keep running Charlie out there, but if they do move him to the pen I would hope that Rzepczynski gets another chance in the rotation.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#238552) #

You know, it's amazing that after all the middle infielders the Jays have auditioned in recent years, a prospect they let walk after a cup of coffee in 2006 and 2007 has actually turned out to be pretty good: Ryan Roberts. The overachieving veteran (he's now 30) would look pretty good at 2B right now (779 OPS / OPS+ of 112, 13 SB, $424,000 salary, free agent in 2015).

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#238553) #

I wonder whether Colby Rasmus would make sense as a potential acquisition. I know that Gose (and possibly Marisnick) are in line to take over in CF, but Rasmus could be a good stopgap solution, and could be flipped if a better internal option emerges. Rasmus is still young (24) and could be a good change-of-scenery guy. The Jays are starting to pile up the prospects and might be able to make the deal without severely denting the farm system.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#238557) #

The Cards are tied for first, so if they trade Rasmus (I don't know if they would), it probably wouldn't be for prospects. Their pitching is pretty solid, so I don't know what the Jays could really offer, unless there was a third team involved. (The Cards would also need a centre fielder, and the Jays certainly don't have a spare one lying around)

Shane - Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#238559) #

"You know (who) ... has actually turned out to be pretty good: Ryan Roberts. The overachieving veteran (he's now 30) would look pretty good at 2B right now (779 OPS / OPS+ of 112, 13 SB, $424,000 salary, free agent in 2015)."

Keith Law's favorite example of a drafted player whom he was responsible for suggesting, while he was in the TO org.

hypobole - Wednesday, July 13 2011 @ 01:27 AM EDT (#238561) #

(The Cards would also need a centre fielder, and the Jays certainly don't have a spare one lying around)

Jon Jay would take over in centre if Rasmus is traded. And Rajai/Corey could be a throw in if the Cards wanted either.

bpoz - Wednesday, July 13 2011 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#238568) #

I always liked Ryan Roberts. I thought he could be a good utility player. He has speed. Ryan Freel was another one I liked, speed & hustle. How did we lose them? Run out of options?

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