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This Day in Baseball Out Of It?

Ricky Romero had on off-night and the Red Sox are a bad team to have an off night against.  Hopefully JP Arencibia's wrist will be OK.  Jonathan Papelboob does a lot of damage through hitting Jays batsmen, doesn't he?

Forgetting about the game, lets consider some questions:

Do the Jays have a chance?

What does the future hold for JP Arencibia?

You are the GM, where would you upgrade the team?

Do the Pirates have a chance?

Details below.



Do the Jays have a chance?

I heard Jim Bowden, former major league GM, talking on the ESPN baseball today podcast today. He was saying that GM's and managers know if there team is out of it. They may say something different publicly but in their hearts they know. So, if you were the GM would you think the Jays are out of it? I think they are, or at least enough out of it to jettison some combination of EE, FF (or San Francisco as my wife calls him), Octvio Dotel, Corey Patterson and Jason Frasor. Is there anyone out there who wouldn't trade those guys and go for it?

 

What does the future hold for JP Arencibia?

JP got off to a hot start and the concerns about his defense abated somewhat. But his hitting has hit the skids. On TV they blame his hand injury but I am not so forgiving. When JPA came up last year, and at the start of this year, JPA was willing to use the entire field, and he hit some of his early home runs to right. When was the last time he hit the ball with authority to right field? JP also has the biggest dichotomy in his at-bats on the team. Most often JP is hacking at the first pitch. But if the first pitch is a ball, JP often gets more restrained and he has had some long at-bats where he battles the pitcher for a walk.

In May JP was the catcher of the future. Today he could be looking at a backup career if Travis d'Arnaud lives up to his billing. I do think JP is underachieving at the plate, and breaking in as a major league catcher is tough, so there is some improvement in the cards whether it be this year or next.

Do you have JPA penciled in as the catcher of the future?

 

You are the GM, where would you upgrade the team?

Lets assume that by the second half of next season you expect this to be your team:

C: Arencibia and d'Arnaud

1B: Lind

2B: Hill, assume he has improved to be a league average 2B

SS: Escobar

3B: Lawrie

LF: Snider

CF: Davis/Gose

RF: Bautista

DH: Thames

SP: Romero; Morrow; Drabek; Cecil; Stewart

RP: Zep; Perez; Frasor (say); Camp; Carreno; Alvarez; plus one

 

How many of those players are above average? To compete with the Yankees and Red Sox you need to have at least six of your starting nine and your five starting pitchers to be above average players, assuming everyone else is league average. As a GM it is easier to get to a team of average players, it's much harder to get a team of above average players.  In that lineup Bautista, Romero, and Morrow could be expected to be above league average. Most of the others are too young to know.  You could wait it out and hope the kids develop into greatness but as a GM you need to be realistic and know who is going to be great and who is not.  Then you need to trade the guys who won't be above average and bring in guys who will.  And that leads us to the question:

So you get a couple of calls from other GM's who are rebuilding and they are each willing to trade you an above average major league player. Your trading partner wants Litsch; McGuire; AJ Jimenez; and Hechavarria and he is willing to trade you a plus player. Which position do you want to upgrade?

 

Do the Pirates have a chance?

The pirates are one and a half games out of the division lead.  How can this be.  They did just win a series against the Jays but their roster is not exactly overqwhelming.  Alex Presley looks like a nice player, McCutcheon can hurt you, but there are a lot of retreads on that roster.  Their offense is 22nd in MLB in runs and OBP, 26th in slugging.  Their pitching is 21st in WHIP but 8th in ERA.  Does that sound like a lucky team?

If I was a betting man I would bet that the Pirates will finish under 500.  But they have had so many losing seasons that you can't help but be happy they are not in the basement.

 

What is your opinion?

Posted by Gerry on Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 09:45 AM EDT.
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BalzacChieftain - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#238124) #

I do think the team is out of it, and AA must know that as well. As for upgrading the team, I think the upside is there for this team to be a contender in the next few years, but as Baseball Prospectus so often quotes, prospects will break your hearts, and much of the Jays' young talent still has to prove itself at the major league level. The roster-fillers such as Patterson, Davis, Encarnacion, Francisco, etc., have little to no trade value so I don't see how any valuable additions can be made to the big league roster unless the Jays give up decent prospects or player(s) in our projected future lineup and/or rotation. Which, for the record, I would have no problem with AA doing.  I think it's kind of a wait-and-see approach with our core players we have now, with the fallback being that there will be a sustainable pipeline of high-ceiling talent in the minor leagues.

One thing I have to point out is that Hill is not league average. As per Fangraphs WAR, check out this split over the 2010-2011 seasons. For qualifying second basemen, only Orlando Cabrera, Ryan Theriot, and Chone Figgins have been less valuable over that time period.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0

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BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#238125) #

If the "it" refers to the playoffs, the Jays were out of it before the season began.   It would've taken all the planets aligning for this team to be a playoff contender in this division in 2011.

Upgrades definitely need to be done at 3B, 2B, and CF for this team to contend.  This could happen in the coming years with internal prospect and trades/signings.

Arencibia might be bothered by that thumb injury, but either way he was always projected to be a low average, low OBP hitter with good power.  He seems to be just that.  I'm not sure if JP will be the starting catcher on the next Jays playoff team.

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Gerry - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#238126) #
I have edited my post to make my point clearer on Hill.  I did not mean to suggest he was a league average 2B today.  In light of his recent improvements, assume he can be a league average 2B in 2012 and 2013.
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hypobole - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#238127) #
We're out of it. Only trade our Type B relievers (FF, Rauch, Frasor, Camp, and Dotel) if the package in return is at least equal to a supplemental pick. Otherwise hold on to them, offer them arb and collect more draft picks. The most obvious place to upgrade would be 2nd base and starting pitching. By this offseason, the farm will be stacked enough that prospects can (and probably should) be traded if the opportunity presents itself, as it will become more difficult to avoid losing real talent in the Rule 5.
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Craig B - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#238128) #
"Do the Jays have a chance?"

No. The Jays have been out of it since at least mid-May, when management/ownership (who you like) refused to do anything to fix the obvious gaping holes in the lineup, despite having Babe Ruth in right field and a surprisingly good opening from the rotation.

If you don't want to win, you're not going to win, and management/ownership did not want to win this year. They have *said* as much all along, so I can't blame them for failing. But even hoping for contention this year was a fool's errand. They said they weren't going to help the team, and they stuck to it. A fish rots from the head.

I imagine that ownership/management will learn their lessons from this and, with a stronger commitment to future years, they'll hopefully learn them well.



"What does the future hold for JP Arencibia?"

No one hits with hand or wrist or rib injuries. No one ever does. At any rate, I agree with the disappointment over his hitting approach recently, but it's a response to hitting a lot with runners on and having been faced with pitchers around the league adjusting to him.

His defense is what it is... mediocre without being overtly harmful. I have a tough time remembering any pitchers he can't manage or deal with.

As with most young players who aren't top-20 talents, it's how he adjusts to the pitchers that will matter; his bat will carry him. Most players who aren't top-20 talents fail to stick longterm.

"You are the GM, where would you upgrade the team?"

The great thing about the Jays is, they are amenable to an upgrade almost everywhere. They need help in the infield, the outfield especially, the rotation and the pen. And I don't much care where to start.

It's not really a reflection on AA... most moves fail (people usually don't understand this) and most cheap moves fail catastrophically. I'd expect my record to be about the same.

Clearly the core of the team is Bautista and Romero and Escobar and Lind and Snider and Lawrie. I still like Hill despite myself, and I still like Morrow and Drabek very much.

Everything else is fungible. Thames is intriguing, but we already have a DH because Lind is no first baseman.

While I'd be tempted to fire the manager as my first order of business, it's too soon. I feel for Farrell, he has been promoted too fast, and he's clearly not competent having been regularly outmanaged by his counterparts. He also clearly hasn't been given the team he wants (his pleas for Lawrie were getting pretty funny before Lawrie got hurt). I would rather do without the disruption and hope that Farrell settles down and manages games sensibly. I'd also try to take Francisco and Rauch and Dotel away from him, which would help immensely, but I doubt I'd find takers. I'd be shocked if anyone could be persuaded to take Francisco or Dotel off our hands. Rauch maybe.

Farrell though is failing with Morrow and Drabek, which to me is a huge concern. Both are failing to go after hitters, and I wonder if the broken defence (especially in the OF) is a part of that. Regardless, whether it's Farrell or Walton, someone has to be held to account for the *way* those two are failing - throwing 100s of nibble pitches, asking lots of questions and not giving any answers.

"Do the Pirates have a chance?"

Few would like to say "yes" more than I, but not really. There's a lot of young talent in the field on the team (more than currently on the Jays, remember) and Walker, Alvarez and Tabata should all improve. However, the pitching staff is just not very good, and they've rode their luck to date. It won't continue, and they'll be giving up a LOT of runs now that it's hot.

I think they'll finish below .500.
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Craig B - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#238129) #
Regarding arb offers. Under no circumstances would I offer arbitration to Rauch, Francisco or Dotel... draft picks or no. They will take it and you'll be left holding the baby.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#238130) #
There are lots of ways to win.  Sometimes, a club wins by having most of its players and pitchers be somewhat above average.  Other clubs do it with huge seasons from a few stars and a capable supporting cast.  The Jays are receiving a monster season out of Bautista in 2011; if one or two of the young pitchers had stepped up, this could have been very interesting. As it is, I agree that the club should not hesitate to make a move which might detract from their slight or remote chances of winning in 2011 in order to improve the club in the long run.  If there are any Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell deals to be made, I would be in full support.

The obvious need in the organization is for more talent in the middle infield.  Escobar, Hill, Hechavarria and then a big developmental gap until Thon is basically the state of it.  The obvious surplus in the organization is at the corner OF slots.  Any re-arrangement of talent is more likely to occur in the off-season than at the deadline, in my view, for a couple of reasons.  First, Snider/Thames/Sierra/Loewen could all use the time to better establish a performance level.  Second, the market for the talent that the club might be willing to trade will be broader in the off-season than at the deadline (i.e. more potential purchasers). 





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PeteMoss - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#238131) #
What recent improvements? He's hitting 273/273/409 in July which I suppose is an improvement from embarrassing to merely bad. He's been terrible for a season and a half now.

As for Arencibia... he's been brutal lately but I'm willing to cut him some slack as he's had the hand injury and he's a rookie playing a very demanding position.
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Ryan Day - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#238132) #
In May JP was the catcher of the future. Today he could be looking at a backup career if Travis d'Arnaud lives up to his billing.

He'll almost certainly hit well enough to start somewhere; have you seen some of the guys that get regular work behind the plate? Miguel Olivo's got a remarkably similar career line to Arencibia (244/281/424), and he's parlayed that into a 10-year career and 937 games; John Buck has a similar skillset as well, and even less impressive numbers, but he's beena  starter for almost all of his career.  Arencibia's been in an offensive tailspin, but I think he's got enough talent to be a solidly above-average hitting catcher.

Who knows - a year from now, maybe we'll be saying that D'arnaud could be looking at a backup career if Jimenez lives up to his billing, and the year after that Jimenez is in danger of being passed by Carlos Perez....
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PeteMoss - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#238133) #
Lind and Escobar been above average this year as well, but I do suppose you could debate their status as full time above average guys due to their terrible seasons last year.
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Kasi - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#238134) #
Lind is a perfectly fine first baseman. His fielding this year is + according to fangraphs.

I would hope they would put Arencibia on the DL around the all star break in order to give him 2 weeks off to rest his thumb. They don't seem to be wanting to do this though.

Despite what some might say, our rotation is clearly the weakness of this team. The failure of Drabek and the departure of Marcum has left a void between the starters we had last year and the next wave of starters. Villueneva has done as well as can be expected, but Reyes has been below average and Morrow/Romero aren't enough.

Bullpen has been fine other than a few blowups. Not a big fan of Rauch to be honest, but if used properly Dotel and Francisco are assets.

Our hitting is just fine. Our defense isn't great but it is acceptable. Basically we need to address pitching right now. And that is what we have coming through the minors and being signed for the most part. There are a lot of pitchers moving up. They're just not ready yet.
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Kasi - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#238135) #
And yes we're out of it. But we always were. There wasn't much hope of making the playoffs this year once Marcum was traded. They would have had to mortgage the future even if they had kept Marcum to get us the players to put us over the hump.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#238136) #
a fish rots from the head

Ah, yes.  An old Maltese saying, and so true.  Also true is George Carlin's, "you've got to wanna".  The talent (and the salary burdens) in the organization are such that competition ought not to be some far-off dream, but whether ownership is willing to spend enough to make this happen is in doubt, soothing words notwithstanding.

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Kasi - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#238137) #
Also Romero needs to get over this issue with the Sox he seems to have. He's faced them more than any other team, but they're hitting like Bonds against him (180+ OPS). This can't go on if we hope to compete with them. Pitchers need to be able to shut down the Sox as well as the Twins/Royals of the world for the team to win.
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Lylemcr - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#238138) #

1. Jays are out of this season.  They need to get what they can for the peices that have trade value.

2. JPA is ok.  Some people swore that Napoli was the next coming.  I think his numbers are comparable and he has higher upside.  But I wouldn't push the panic button yet.

3. I don't know why we talk about offensive help all the time.  The upgrades coming in the minors should be enough, with a couple nice free agents.  What is freaking me out is our pitching.   We need some of these arms to take it to the next level.  If we need to improve in the next year or two, the pitching depth needs to be the cornerstone.

4. I like the idea of McGowan as our future closer...

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John Northey - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#238139) #
Well, according to Baseball-Prospectus the Jays Odds are 0.1%, or if you prefer 1 in 1000. Tampa is down to 9.3% while the Yanks and Red Sox are over 90% each. Pittsburgh is down to 2.1% while the 0.0% teams are Baltimore, KC, Cubs, and Houston while the Padres are at 0.1% like the Jays and the Dodgers, Marlins, and Nationals are all below 1%.

In truth, it does make sense sadly enough. This is one heck of a tough division and the Jays did need everything to go right. Have Snider, Cecil, Litsch, Hill, third base, Rivera, EE, Drabek, Morrow, Francisco, ... OK, lots of guys under-perform killed it. Heck, it is amazing the Jays are as close to 500 as they are given all that.
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Craig B - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#238140) #
"Lind is a perfectly fine first baseman. His fielding this year is + according to fangraphs."

Lind has botched well more than a dozen plays this year that I have seen, that Fangraphs or any other defensive rating system misses because it doesn't look for them. Best example is the botched 3-6-3 on Saturday, Doc's return. Lind got the ball, made the throw, and mentally left the building. He actually caught the return throw; four feet off the bag. Oops.

Fangraphs counts that as a plus play; but 25 or more of the 30 MLB first basemen get a double play out of it.

Don't get me started on the number of missed tags, dropped throws, and other butchery that end up as hits (and, incidentally, pushing down the Fangraphs numbers of the other infielders - one of many reasons to look at such things holisitcally).

Also, he's terrible at catching popups (there was one of those on Saturday too - a play that Overbay would have made without even breathing hard, Lind didn't get near and left for Hill, who couldn't hang on).

I don't care much. He hits, which the Jays don't have enough of. But he's a DH.
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John Northey - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#238141) #
Looking at the rotation I see just 2 guys with any starts who have an ERA+ above 86. Romero & Villanueva have been great (120+ ERA+) but the rest... ugh. To get an idea of how bad that is, Josh Towers lifetime ERA+ was 92.
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Kasi - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#238142) #
He's not going to be a DH. It's been shown how he hits when he plays DH exclusively. Also this is his first year at 1B, so there is bound to be some growing pains. Give him the rest of this year plus another offseason to work on things and he'll improve more. What you're explaining there are mental mistakes, not physical inability to play the position. He is our 1B going forward and nothing he's done this year has done anything to dispel that.
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Matthew E - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#238143) #
The Jays just aren't good enough, that's all. They're below .500 and may finish the season below .500. I expect them to improve over the next few years as they start to integrate more good young players from the farm system into the 25-man roster, but it'll be a slow and uncertain process, full of reverses. They won't be good enough next year, either, and I'm not holding out any hope for the year after that.

Building a perpetually great team is hard. The Jays need superstars and there's no reliable way to get superstars. The Jays need a whole lot of things to go right, and having a whole lot of things go right almost never happens. It's much more likely that almost nothing will go right, in which case we'll get more seasons sorta like this one. But even if a normal number of things go right, that won't help the Jays; that's another 83-win season. I'm not saying there's no reason for hope; there is. But the odds are the odds.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#238147) #
Lind, incidentally, is the type of player that the club could trade at the deadline, because of his perceived current value and the organizational strength at the position.  I doubt that fair value could be obtained, but after the Wells deal, all pronouncements about what is possible are necessarily vague. 
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Kasi - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#238148) #
I wouldn't mind trading Lind. I don't think Fielder is a good 1b, but if they want to get him as 1b for a year or two and think that McDade could play at 1B in a couple years than I could be alright with something like that. Still not too excited about giving a player of Fielder's size a big contract.
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92-93 - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#238150) #
I'd trade Jose Bautista, as I said I would all winter when I was confused why the team was locking up some players (Bautista) while trading away others (Marcum).
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Kasi - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#238152) #
I doubt you could get a fair value for him. And when you have a superstar locked up for a below value contract, that is incredibly valuable to have. Unless there was a proven major league star coming the other way for him along with prospects, I don't see it working out.

The reason Marcum was traded while Buatista wasn't is because Bautista is a 6+ win player and Marcum just isn't. You make trades to get impact players into the system. AA clearly believed that Lawrie would be a bigger impact player than Marcum going forward.

As well I think there is value having a player around that gets the fanbase excited. Bautista is that along with being a strong clubhouse presence. When added to his production and contract that makes him invaluable. Trying to think the last time a superstar player got traded with multiple years left on their contract and what did they get? Not coming up with anything though.
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Ron - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#238154) #
Trying to think the last time a superstar player got traded with multiple years left on their contract and what did they get? Not coming up with anything though.

The Rangers traded A-Rod to the Yankees when he had 7 years left on his contract and got back Soriano and a PTBNL. The Rangers had a list of 5 prospect to pick from and they decided on Joaquin Arias over Robbie Cano.
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Kasi - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#238155) #
Yeah, so they went with a proven major league player and got one prospect who didn't work out.

I see a superstar trade happening in one of two ways.

1) Trade for another star + prospect. Unless that other star is more affordable than Bautista and that prospect works out (which is always iffy) than that is a bad idea.

2) Trade for multiple prospects. As we can see with any prospect, that is gambling. I don't think it is smart sending away 6+ win players for players who might never be above average in the majors.
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uglyone - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#238156) #
They're digging themselves too big a hole now, but I still think this jays squad had enough to make things interesting if they were more willing to use the kids instead of some failing vets.

Right now, I'd like to see Cooper DHing and EE on the bench, and Slotting in Lawrie for Hill right now would be sweet as well. Snider still doesn't look quite back to what he should be, but he definitely looks better, and Thames looks great. These four kids in instead of Patterson, Rivera, Hill, and EE is a big change that really makes the lineup look better, IMO.

I know people are down on JPA but his numbers are still good for even a starting catcher - and he's just a rookie. And he's in the midst of a bad slump that seems to at least be somewhat caused by a hand injury. His numbers right now (.706ops) have him hovering right in the middle of the pack for MLB catchers, alongside the likes of Martin, Wieters, Pierzynski, Ruiz. That is not bad - that is actually quite good for a rookie. I'd wait until at least JPA has "bad" numbers before worrying about his future as a starter.

The bullpen has been up and down but I really blame Farrell for most of the problems there. His reliance on flyball-happy Rauch despite consistent ineffectiveness has really hurt the team this year, and his stubborness in ignoring Dotel's R/L splits early on turned a very good asset into a huge weakness - Dotel has been pretty much awesome since Farrell finally figured out not to bring him in against 3 lefties in a row. Rzep/Dotel as the L/R setups to Frank really should be automatic at this point, but it's not. Rauch really should be off the team, IMO.

The starting rotation was always the big determinant in how this season would go for the Jays, and it's been for the most part an utter disaster. Ricky has been good, but the rest has been an abject failure. There have been some signs recently that Morrow, Cecil, and Drabek might be getting back to form, but overally they've been so horrendous this year that it's too late to make up. Still, going forward, there's reason to be hopeful that these 3 may be turning a corner. Villy has been a nice surprise, and may be worth getting semi-excited about, though not too excited about.


What's most encouraging to me right now is the developement of some key prospects at AA this year - high-impact-talent type guys at key positions. I'm looking specifically at Alvarez, D'Arnaud, and Gose. These three are doing so well that they seem to be locks for september callups at the very least, and might even have a chance at making the big squad next year, without spending much time at AAA. And given how important the positions they play are, that could be a major boost to the team.

But really, what you think of this team's chances next year (or even this year I guess) comes down to what you think of their starting pitchers.
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electric carrot - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#238158) #
I'd trade Jose Bautista

(gasp! will I still enjoy of watching the jays?)

Actually ... perfectly willing to do this ...  if you trade me Halladay, Lee, Utley and your entire Triple A club.




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robertdudek - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#238159) #
I heard that Marcum was dealt for personal reasons, which makes sense because on paper he is exactly the kind of guy you need to build a contender around and was not going to be expensive for a good few years.
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Anders - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#238160) #
Lind has botched well more than a dozen plays this year that I have seen, that Fangraphs or any other defensive rating system misses because it doesn't look for them. Best example is the botched 3-6-3 on Saturday, Doc's return. Lind got the ball, made the throw, and mentally left the building. He actually caught the return throw; four feet off the bag. Oops.

I disagree thoroughly, both in regard to your specific instance and to your notion in general. Lind may have made some mistakes on plays, but in this specific case 1) the return throw is usually the pitchers, and 2) Victorino was the runner going to second Brown to first, and the ball wasn't hit hard. I don't think there was a play there at all.

I think Lind has been more than adequate at first; pleasantly surprising would be my words. He's been very good at picking throws, and at fielding ground balls. Moreover he is exactly the type of guy you don't want to trade I think, given his age, strong performance and extremely reasonable contract.
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Mick Doherty - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#238161) #

 if you trade me Halladay, Lee, Utley and your entire Triple A club.

Ironically, if the Phillies did this, they'd still have a better rotation than the Jays do. 8-P

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John Northey - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#238163) #
OK, who won't be traded and why.

Signed through 2015 (potentially, options exist sometimes)
Bautista, Romero, Lind, Escobar
These 4 are signed below market value, are 28 or less (outside of Bautista) and are productive. These are not the types of guys you trade unless you get an absolute steal of a deal.

26 or younger, thus still improving...
Snider, Drabek, Cecil, Rzep, JPA, Litsch, Morrow, Reyes (yes, he is 26).
These guys could be available, but needs to be a clear win of a trade for the Jays to do it with the potential exception of Litsch & Reyes as neither are expected to be aces in the near future.

Expensive...
Only Bautista is over $5.25 mil and he is at $8 mil - Outside of Hill & Bautista only Romero has any options worth more than $8 mil and that is Romero in 2016.

30+ Years Old & over $1 mil...
Rivera (gone), Hill (29 and looking 39), Francisco, Rauch, Frasor, Dotel, Camp, McDonald, Molina. EE is just 28.

These guys the Jays would happily trade in a deal that looks OK but not great (draft pick level of quality back).

Really, most of the horrible headaches are gone now (no more Wells deals on the books). Guys like Rivera can be released with no real financial hit.

I suspect we'll start seeing prospects used in trades more often as the Jays look for star quality players who are stuck in AAA/AA for other teams with long term stars in the majors but other holes to fill. Look for a second baseman to be acquired, even more pitching, and perhaps more CF/SS/CA's just because they can always be moved around the diamond if needed.
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BalzacChieftain - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#238165) #
The probably-faux trade rumours during the Winter Meetings of the D-Backs wanting something like Snider and Drabek for Justin Upton seems like a pretty good deal for the Jays right now, doesn't it?
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Magpie - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#238168) #
the botched 3-6-3 on Saturday

If it's the play I'm thinking of, the real problem was that the pitcher forgot to cover the bag. I also don't think Lind has been good defensively - fairly close to adequate is how I'd put it - but I don't think that play was on him.
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Magpie - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#238169) #
Out of it?

Never in it. They punted this season before the first game was played, with the Marcum and (yes) the Wells trades.

Do the Jays have a chance?

 You're kidding, right?

What does the future hold for JP Arencibia?

 No one knows what the future holds, my friend.

You are the GM, where would you upgrade the team?

 As Johnny said in The Wild One, Whaddya got? I'll say this - Jose Bautista is untouchable. I'll talk about anyone else, even Ricky.

Do the Pirates have a chance?

 Sure. Not a great chance, but when a bunch of young players actually begin to believe in themselves, amazing things can happen.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#238170) #
If the club is unwilling to trade a player because he is signed below market value for the long-term (as for instance, in the case of Lind), it is an indication that ownership is unwilling to spend when necessary.  Mike McDade probably isn't John Olerud and Adam Lind certainly isn't Fred McGriff, but if you close yourself off to the possibility of rearranging talent, you are less likely to succeed. 
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Spifficus - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#238171) #

If the club is unwilling to trade a player because he is signed below market value for the long-term (as for instance, in the case of Lind), it is an indication that ownership is unwilling to spend when necessary. Mike McDade probably isn't John Olerud and Adam Lind certainly isn't Fred McGriff, but if you close yourself off to the possibility of rearranging talent, you are less likely to succeed.

Wouldn't the scenario alluded to in your second sentence be more likely to indicate an ownership unwilling to spend, rather than keeping Lind?

Of course saying that, I'm from the 'no one is untouchable' school of thought (Bautista's pretty close, though, as the value to the team as both its marquee player and biggest box office draw would require an obscene return).

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Alex Obal - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#238172) #
The idea is that if Lind is off-limits, that suggests the front office (over)values cost certainty.
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John Northey - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#238173) #
Lets take a quick look at that Wells trade so far...
Wells: 216/245/402 82 OPS+ and due $63 mil over the next 3 years, shifted to LF
Rivera: 243/305/360 83 OPS+ and 'designated for assignment'
Napoli: 221/337/503 124 OPS+ (dang, should've kept him but we all felt that way at the time I think)
Francisco: 10 saves 4.81 ERA 24.1 IP 13 BB 29 K 4 HR 84 ERA+

So Rivera has hit about as well as Wells (better by many measures). Napoli outhit them both. Francisco has his flashes but really isn't showing much. Anyone who sees Wells trade as a 'white flag' must feel trading any good player is a 'white flag' regardless of how he performs and those who you get for him perform. I remember saying that Rivera could outhit Wells this year quite easily but I sure didn't think it would be a battle of the low 80's OPS+.

Marcum's trade was a white flag moment though - a solid ML starter for a prospect who would be expected to spend at least 1/2 a season in the minors.

Still, this year never was marketed as a 'we will contend' year. It was viewed as 'it could happen' but we all knew everything had to work and, as I previously mentioned, it sure didn't.
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Magpie - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#238174) #
the club is unwilling to trade a player because he is signed below market value for the long-term

That's a nice bonus, I suppose, but not what I was thinking. I just can't imagine getting someone better in return. Who's better?
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John Northey - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#238175) #
I'm not saying they would be unwilling or should not trade guys like Lind and Bautista. Just that if you are going to trade a cheap star level player you darn well better get major, major value back in return.

When you have a guy signed to a below market contract it means you have the ability to spend that excess elsewhere. If you trade that player you have to factor that in or you will be in a KC situation very quickly.
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Alex Obal - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#238176) #
(Also, I see what Spifficus meant - trading Lind could be seen as an ambiguous sign about ownership's willingness to spend. I'd assume it is a good sign until proven otherwise.)
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greenfrog - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#238177) #
I would be surprised if AA sees 2012 as a contention year. My impression is that he's simply trying to amass as much young, high-end talent as possible. Once the talent is flowing in abundance, he'll be able to start moving parts around and getting the team he wants in place. That said, I'm sure he would be thrilled to add another Escobar-type above-average player at 2B or CF right now. But good young players aren't easy to come by.
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lexomatic - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#238180) #
JPA is actually doing what Brock2 projected him to.
If he follows a normal growth pattern he'll make a decent regular, have some bad years if he really doesn't hit, and some better years when he gets lucky. Not in the slightest bit irreplaceable, but enough that someone like D'Arnaud has to earn the starting role.

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92-93 - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#238183) #
Since June 10 (24 games) Wells has 17 runs, 8 HRs, and 18 RBIs and is hitting .280/.287/.581. During that stretch the Angels have vaulted right back into the division race, making up at least 5 games. It hasn't been entirely on Vernon's back but he's been the main offensive factor in their resurgence, and people in Anaheim are probably feeling a lot better about him right now.
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Dave Till - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#238184) #
The Jays were never seriously in contention this year, and are out of it now.

To be considered serious about winning, the Jays should be willing to invest in the occasional top-drawer free agent. It will cost them, but that's the price of doing business: the Yanks' payroll is $201 million and Boston's is $161 million. The Jays' is $62.5 million.

What they should NOT do is sign mid-tier free agents or players who used to be good. Baltimore did this, and it didn't help them. But having the equivalent of an Adrian Gonzalez added to your lineup every year would make a huge difference. Not doing this is like tying your legs together before attempting to run the 100-yard dash. (Okay, that's not a great metaphor.)

Other than that, all they can do is keep on doing what they're doing: sign a bunch of young prospects and hope that enough of them pan out. AA needs to be luckier than Ricciardi was on that front.

As for JPA: he's doing just about exactly what he could be expected to do: hit for a low average, but crank more home runs than most catchers. It's hard to find catchers who hit really well - that's one of the challenges that a team faces if they want to try to win a championship.

I haven't been watching Farrell closely enough to know whether he is a good manager or a bad one - what could he be doing better?

The lack of development of Morrow and Drabek (and Cecil) is worrisome - if the Jays' coaching staff can't develop young pitchers, the Jays are in deep trouble.

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dan gordon - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#238185) #

Sure, they're out of it this year.  As far as 2012 is concerned, I think it depends on how many post season spots are available.  If they change the setup to 5 post season teams that is a whole different thing than the current situation.  Having to beat out the Yankees or Sox would require an awful lot of things to fall into place next year.  On the other hand, if they only need to finish 3rd, and beat out Tampa and the other 2 2nd place teams, I think they could very well have a decent chance.

The biggest thing that needs to be straightened out is the rotation.  Right now there is Romero and a lot of question marks.  I think most would say Morrow should be a good bet, but he's got to show the kind of control he showed in the last 4 months of 2010.  From Drabek, Litsch, Cecil, Villanueva, Reyes, Stewart, Mills, McGowan(?), they need to find a couple of guys who can give them significantly above average performance.  Maybe by this time next year Alvarez has worked his way into the mix.  You'd like to think Drabek can be one of those guys.  Maybe Cecil.  Villanueva was great as a reliever, and as a starter this year his ERA is 4.13 and WHIP is 1.19.  Nothing wrong with that, if he can continue at that level.  It's only 8 starts, so it's still a pretty small audition.

I think they need a closer.  There are a lot of decent guys in the pen, but there isn't 1 shut down guy for the 9th inning.

With Lawrie, Bautista, Lind, Escobar, Snider, Thames, there is the basis for a good offense.  That assumes that Lind doesn't revert to his 2010 form, and that Snider can be the guy they think he can become.  2B obviously is a problem without a readily apparent solution - no help coming from the farm, no good free agents available - this may require a trade.  Not sure if they could package a couple of pitching prospects and an OF prospect for a good 2B or not.  Or whether they'd be willing to do that.  Arencibia seems to be giving them the typical poor average decent power stats that a lot of catchers give.  I think D'Arnaud and/or Jiminez may be the guy in another 1-3 years.  I think I'm willing to wait for Gose in CF, and live with Davis for the duration of his contract as long as he picks it up a bit in the 2nd half.

Not impressed with the new manager.  Bullpen management, baserunning issues, in game strategy are areas I have concerns with Farrell's performance.

All in all, I think 2013 is looking more likely to be a time when this team kicks it into gear.  The starting pitching should be sorted out, D'Arnaud and maybe Gose should be on the scene.  Hopefully they will have addressed the 2B issue by then, and the young guys like Snider, Thames, Lawrie should be more established by then.

Nice to see my Giants are at 93% to make the post season.  Any time they get in they've got a shot with that fantastic pitching of theirs.  With the Posey injury though, they need a bat.

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Mike Green - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#238186) #
I imagine that Angel fans might be happier with the acquisition of Downs.  He's been pitching as well as ever, and they've got his leverage up to almost 2. 

The other thing that I would like to see now is Rzepczynski moved to the rotation and Reyes to the pen.  Establishing trade value for Jo-Jo seems to me to be a lost cause, and going forward, the key is maximizing Zep's value.  I still see him as a starter in the majors, and if he was moved to the rotation now, he would end up with 150 innings or so for the year.

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Magpie - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#238188) #
Since June 10 (24 games) Wells has 17 runs, 8 HRs, and 18 RBIs and is hitting .280/.287/.581.

I'm glad someone noticed. I rather think the injury was the best thing that could have happened to Wells. His early season performance showed all the classic signs of a guy trying too hard to impress his new team. This is baseball, that never works.
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Kasi - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#238189) #
He still doesn't take a walk. His defense isn't good enough for CF anymore (even by Davis' standards) and he is still owed 63 million over 3 years. Of course a guy of his quality is going to have good runs. But overall it's good for the Jays that he is gone.
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uglyone - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#238190) #
He's still a better offseason pickup than Crawford.


Wells (32, $21m/4yrs): 61gms, .648ops, 82ops+, .280woba, +12.0uzr/150 as LF
Crawford (29, $21m/7yrs): 67gms, .659ops, 78ops+, .290woba, -1.0uzr/150 as LF
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Magpie - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#238192) #
overall it's good for the Jays that he is gone.

Yes, if - but only if - they actually do something with the money they're no longer spending on him.
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scottt - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#238198) #
It's good that Wells is gone because they felt he had to play CF and hit in the heart of the lineup.

You don't trade cheap guys for expensive ones. You can sign the expensive guys in the winter.

If Lawrie works out, they still need to improve at CF and 2B as well as the rotation. And they need a closer.



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Magpie - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#238199) #
Vernon Wells is better than Rajai Davis. It's all about the money.
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BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#238200) #
Sure, they're out of it this year.  As far as 2012 is concerned, I think it depends on how many post season spots are available.  If they change the setup to 5 post season teams that is a whole different thing than the current situation.  Having to beat out the Yankees or Sox would require an awful lot of things to fall into place next year.  On the other hand, if they only need to finish 3rd, and beat out Tampa and the other 2 2nd place teams, I think they could very well have a decent chance.

By all accounts, another wildcard is going to happen for sure.  It still won't be easy to make the playoffs, but, if you think about it, even just one more increases the spots available to the Jays by a full 50%.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#238201) #
It is all about the money, but I don't agree that Vernon Wells is any better than Rajai Davis. From 2003 to 2006, Wells was pretty clearly a better player (by a significant margin) than Davis has been or is likely to be. From 2007 to 2011, Wells has been no better. I suppose that it is possible that Wells could sip from the fountain of youth, but he'll be turning 33 in December and the odds are that he won't be any better than he has been for the last 4 and 1/2 years.
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Mike Green - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#238203) #
Perhaps the question mark in the lead could be changed to an exclamation mark now.
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AWeb - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#238204) #
So...this takes the lead for "worst loss of the year". Ouch.
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Magpie - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#238206) #
Told you the grand slam was a helluva play. Listen to the old fool!
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smcs - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#238207) #
Yup. Don't do that.
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92-93 - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#238208) #
Farrell's bullpen management is abysmal. The guy just doesn't learn from his mistakes, continuing to cycle through relievers for no apparent reason.
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Ron - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#238209) #
it might be time to remove Francisco from ........... the Jays roster. I can't think of a single reason why the Jays should keep him right now. The Jays are now 6-13 in their last 19 games. In order for the Jays to make the playoffs they need to go roughly 53-20 the rest of the way. Even if the Jays go on a 20 game winning streak they would still need to win 62% of their games.
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BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#238210) #
That was pathetic.  A whole shit tonne of tough losses this year.
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Gerry - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#238211) #
Non save situation, Jason Frasor pitched to one batter. Why change?

This one is on the manager.
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Craig B - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#238213) #
I think 92-93 has a production of No No Nanette he needs to finance.
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Craig B - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#238214) #
Robert. If Marcum was dealt for personal reasons, that makes sense but I can't see what could possibly have prompted it unless he had to leave town for some reason.

It's not unheard of for a ballplayer to have to leave town for some reason, but in these times of half-million contracts for scrubbeenies it's much rarer.
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Shane - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#238215) #
Mmm, Craig. Was just going to ask Robert about that. Wonder what Robert heard/knows...
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hypobole - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#238216) #
Vernon Wells is better than Rajai Davis. It's all about the money.

 

Vernon Wells is not $20 million a year better than Rajai Davis. It's all about intelligent use of money.

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sam - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#238217) #
How anyone can think this team is a few pieces away is beyond me. I think more than half the roster needs to be replaced or some of these guys need to drastically improve before this team is ready to contend.
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Magpie - Thursday, July 07 2011 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#238218) #
I don't agree that Vernon Wells is any better than Rajai Davis. From 2003 to 2006, Wells was pretty clearly a better player (by a significant margin) than Davis has been or is likely to be. From 2007 to 2011, Wells has been no better.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.

Seeing as how Davis wasn't even in the majors until a cup of coffee in 2006, the first part is easy. As for part two:

Rajai Davis Batting Stats for Years 2007 to 2011

Year        G    PA   AB   R    H  2B 3B HR RBI  SB CS  BB  SO  BAVG  OBP   SLG  OPS  OPS+   TB  GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2007-2011  525  1696 1566 225 431  86 20 13 146 164 43  92 269  .275  .320 .381 .701   88   596   27  17  9 12   1
Average    105   339  313  45  86  17  4  3  29  33  9  18  54  .275  .320 .381 .701   88   119    5   3  2  2   0
per 162    163   525  484  70 134  27  7  5  46  51 14  29  84  .275  .320 .381 .701   88   185    9   6  3  4   0   


Vernon Wells Batting Stats for Years 2007 to 2011

Year       G    PA    AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  SB CS  BB  SO BAVG  OBP  SLG   OPS   OPS+    TB  GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2007-2011 633  2691 2472 346 648 146 12 94 343  39 16 185 356 .262 .314 .445  .759   101   1100   67  11  0 23  16
Average   127   538  494  69 130  29  2 19  69   8  3  37  71 .262 .314 .445  .759   101    220   13   2  0  5   3
per 162   163   689  633  89 166  38  4 25  88  10  5  48  92 .262 .314 .445  .759   101    282   18   3  0  6   5



Davis   Age    G  PA    AB   R   H  2B 3B HR  RBI  SB CS  BB SO BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB    

2007    26     75  219  190  32  53  11  2  1    9  22  6  21 28 .279 .361 .374 .735   91   71   1   4  3  1  1    
2008    27    113  226  214  30  52   5  4  3   19  29  6   8 40 .243 .272 .346 .618   66   74   1   1  2  1  0 
2009    28    125  432  390  65 119  27  5  3   48  41 12  29 70 .305 .360 .423 .784  107  165  12   7  2  4  0   
2010    29    143  561  525  66 149  28  3  5   52  50 11  26 78 .284 .320 .377 .697   89  198  10   4  1  5  0    
2011    30     69  258  247  32  58  15  6  1   18  22  8   8 53 .235 .261 .356 .617   68   88   3   1  1  1  0  


Wells    Age    G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR  RBI  SB CS  BB SO BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 

2007    28    149  642  584  85 143  36  4 16   80  10  4  49 89 .245 .304 .402 .706   85  235   9   3  0  6  4    
2008    29    108  466  427  63 128  22  1 20   78   4  2  29 46 .300 .343 .496 .840  122  212  16   3  0  7  5   
2009    30    158  684  630  84 164  37  3 15   66  17  4  48 86 .260 .311 .400 .711   86  252  18   1  0  5  2     
2010    31    157  646  590  79 161  44  3 31   88   6  4  50 84 .273 .331 .515 .847  125  304  18   3  0  3  5 
2011    32     61  253  241  35  52   7  1 12   31   2  2   9 51 .216 .245 .402 .648   82   97   6   1  0  2  0

You sure about that?

I'm not saying the trade was a bad idea. But replacing Wells with Davis was a downgrade, for 2011 (as I trust will be much clearer by the end of this year) and probably for 2012 as well. Davis will be 31 himself in a few months, he isn't going to be getting any better either.
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Shane - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#238219) #

I'm not saying the trade was a bad idea. But replacing Wells with Davis was a downgrade, for 2011 (as I trust will be much clearer by the end of this year) and probably for 2012 as well. Davis will be 31 himself in a few months, he isn't going to be getting any better either.

What again was the point of giving Davis a 2 year deal again? I love AA's liquid/forward thinking but the Davis thing plus trading away Napoli I wished hadn't happened back then. Do I dare even check out Napoli's stats? Where's Google ....


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dan gordon - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#238220) #
...hello, uh yes I'd like to order a closer, please....yes, mid 90's would be good, but none of this straight-as-a-string-stuff...OK, and no walking guys in the 9th when you have a decent lead either....yes, I know I'm not going to get somebody as good as Rivera....how about somebody like, say, Kimbrel or Wilson, or even somebody close to that....yah, somebody who doesn't give you a sense of impending doom when he comes in, somebody who can, you know, dominate hitters...yes, i know every closer blows a game occasionally, but we've had too many of those around here...OK, thank you very much
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katman - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 01:58 AM EDT (#238221) #
Shane, the point of a 2-year deal for Rajai Davis was to shore up a key weakness with a player whose performance had been decent, with an element of speed the team lacked. It was a reasonable decision.

Davis has been far below his own average performance this year, which no-one saw coming. Clairvoyants in the crowd are invited to prove it on Wall Street, then come talk to us.

I'll distinguish the Davis signing from Rivera, who was always a hoper play, and has delivered neither hope nor change, except in the negative W-L sense. Known gamble taken, gamble lost, though it did help us a bit at 1st for a stretch. To me, that's forgivable, but much more predictable.

I'll also distinguish Davis' situation from Patterson's defense, which has either fallen apart (unlikely), or stands as a serious scouting mistake by the team. There's no way this guy was qualified to be a 4th outfielder if he can only play LF, which is the truth. Keeping him over DeWayne Wise was an organizational mistake - and while Wise is not an all-star or anything, it has bitten us a few times now, and hit the W-L column in a way not reflected in WAR scores.
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katman - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 02:02 AM EDT (#238222) #
P.S. Mike Napoli is .221 AVG/ .337 OPS/ .503 SLG. GIDP is 6, over just 145 at bats, he can't play outfield, and we don't need another catcher. He might be be a step up from Rivera, but if so it's not by much.
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katman - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 02:04 AM EDT (#238223) #
That's .337 OBP for Napoli, not OPS. Wish there was an edit function...
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TamRa - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 02:33 AM EDT (#238224) #
Do the Jays have a chance?

I'm easily in the camp of selling off the marketable players, while keeping in mind the potential draft compansation. Which is to say as painful as it has been with Francisco, the return has to trump the potential pick.

What does the future hold for JP Arencibia?

I have JPA as the starter this year and next year and through the deadline (ish) in 2013 - i do expect him to be dealt before the end of 2013 though. I make his career as something like AJ Pierzinski (except for the whole being an a**hole part)

You are the GM, where would you upgrade the team?

I think your timeline is a bit off - i think they wil hold off promoting d'Arnaud until say june or so of 2013, Gose won't be here before 2013 (not counting September 2012), and i don't see Alvarez in the 'pen  also, Adeiny probably won't be here until he HAS to be in 2014

Here's my oversized (and wildly speculative) take:

Catcher-
2012 - JPA and older guy (A molina type)
2013 - JPA and jeroloman to start, then in June or so d'Arnaud comes on; either mid-season or more likely in the winter JPA get's dealt)
2014 - d'Arnaud, potentially for years to come depending on how they handle Perez/Jimenez (one of these will be lost to trade or failure by 2015)

First-
2012-2016 - Lind, After that it's anyone's guess

Second -
2012-2013 - Really dunno, but it's basically a stopgap guy who's hidden at the bottom of the order probably, the 2B equivilant of Davis
2014 - Escobar
2015 - either Escobar resigns or you could have any of a variety of minor leaguers here including Carlos Perez (or am i taking the Biggio thing too far?)

Shorstop -
2012-2013 - Escobar
2014 - ? - Adeiny. How long depends on how long they give him to produce competent offense, or if they just put up with it like the Rangers put up with Elvis' bat.

Third -
2012-2016 - Lawrie. I refuse to discuss anything else.(except Bautista resigning himself to 3B and Lawrie in RF)

Left
2012 - ?? - Snider. period.

Center-
2012 - Davis i guess, I could hope for Snider with Thames in left but i'm not going to be over-optimistic there.
2013 - ?? - Gose

Right-
2012-2016 - Bautista(Lawrie)

DH -
2012-2014 - Thames (mostly, when he's not spotting outfield defense), could be longer depending on other arrivals.

One note, i could potentially see an argument for Bautista DHing the last couple of years to make room for Marisnick in the outfield, but that's too far out to guess.

I think Loewen makes the team and plays a valuable part time role begining in 2012 for several years. I Think Cooper might get some time but is ultimately traded. i assume Sierra will be dealt if he holds his value, and probably McDade (if Thames Fails McDade has a shot in 2013)

I would argue that, in that scenario, ultimately every position has a future I like, notwithstanding the temptation to import a big name (the guy I'd like in that role is probably Matt Kemp) - the biggest problem i see there is settling for less than great work at 2B and CF until the kids are set.

Among starters, lord knows you can't predict specifics (even as much as the wild guesses above) but from this pool:

Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Drabek, Alvarez, Stewart, McGuire, Litsch, Jenkins, Villianueva,  and maybe McGowan with health and extension.

...who are here or will be by 2013 (being optimistic on McGuire) I am confident that we should be able to build a rotation which is as good as we might reasonably expcet to build via acquisition.

On the pen, you need two lefties. I feel pretty good about Zep and Perez in that role right now, but of course relievers are crazy-making (look at the difference in Carlson's first year and everything since)

That means maybe five RHP out of Janssen, Frasor, Villianueva, Farquhar, Farina, Carreno, and various excess starters. There's not a huge margin for error there...i could see a cause for acquiring a guy who prfiles as a shutdown reliever, particularly if you really really think Stewart isn't that guy.
but otherwise, meh - middle relievers are not difficult to pick up.

All that to explain why i say - while I'm perfectly happy to see the jays score some top-50 prospect I never saw coming, I'd also be perfectly content to watch the above described team come together and be pretty optmistic I'd like the results - barring debilitating injuries.
 
Your trading partner wants Litsch; McGuire; AJ Jimenez; and Hechavarria and he is willing to trade you a plus player. Which position do you want to upgrade?

Second base

Do the Pirates have a chance?

No. Not this year. But Houston has a solid lease on the basement.


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TamRa - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#238225) #
oh, and about JPA. It started out as the thumb, probably factor in some fatigue. but there was a tweet the other day that described a spike in a particular pitch that was working against him - I believe the slider. The implication was the league had an initial book on him and it was now his turn to adjust.

He's a pretty smart guy and i think he will adjust and do pretty well until they find another weakness. He's the kind of guy, it seems to me, that will ride that up-and-down wave a few times before he finds his level.

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TamRa - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 03:03 AM EDT (#238226) #
What recent improvements? He's hitting 273/273/409 in July which I suppose is an improvement from embarrassing to merely bad. He's been terrible for a season and a half now.

Since April 15 his line is this:
.261/.308/.370/.678
He's fluctuated up and down depending on the sample you take but somewhere in the .670-.690 neighborhood is pretty much what he is right now, which, while displeasing, IS better than the early season stuff and better marginally than last year. Out of the 14 AL 2B with 225 PA, that would rank him 8th, or put another way it's about .028 off the median figure between the best and the worst OPS.

by a very losely defined "around average" he's around average. I can't really parse it out via WAR or whatever because i don't know how to filter out the effects of the first couple of weeks.

(along a similar line, Hill had a .703 OPS at the end of play on September 6 last year, then posted a .476 the rest of the way. So over 40 days split over two seasons, and 32 games, he was a complete disaster - and otherwise he's just been kinda bad)

(and yes, I know the complaints about arbitrary end points, and i know I'm almost alone on this, but i do think it helps to see what's happening outside the slumps - or the runs - when a slump/run is clearly definable)


All that said, if you assume Gose is the eventual answer in CF (and if he fails then Marisnick behind him) - 2B is clearly the obvious upgrade opportunity.
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TamRa - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 03:13 AM EDT (#238227) #
The probably-faux trade rumours during the Winter Meetings of the D-Backs wanting something like Snider and Drabek for Justin Upton seems like a pretty good deal for the Jays right now, doesn't it?

Sure. Of course "right now" both players are 23 (so is Upton!) and we don't know how it will look five years from now so "right now" means pretty much nothing of value.
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TamRa - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 03:27 AM EDT (#238228) #
Napoli: 221/337/503 124 OPS+ (dang, should've kept him but we all felt that way at the time I think)

Funny thing about Napoli - he had an INSANE stretch of THREE games in late may in which he hit almost .600 and had 4 homers.

take those out, and his OPS for the entire rest of the season - is .695
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TamRa - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 03:36 AM EDT (#238229) #
Non save situation, Jason Frasor pitched to one batter. Why change?
This one is on the manager.

I agree completely, but Wilner had a good point - you have a 4 run lead and the bottom of the opponent's order, the worst pitcher on your roster is supposed to be able to escape that. Frasor should definitely have stayed (in my mind) but that doesn't excuse Frankie in the least.

After all, for a noticeable chunk of the season this was precisely the roles Frank got to pitch in in order to earn back the right to pitch in close games.
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TamRa - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 03:38 AM EDT (#238230) #
How anyone can think this team is a few pieces away is beyond me. I think more than half the roster needs to be replaced or some of these guys need to drastically improve before this team is ready to contend.

A few pieces and TIME.
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scottt - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#238231) #
If they don't improve over the second half, they will have a protected draft pick.

If your closer is not good enough to pitch with a 4 run lead, then he shouldn't be your closer.

Francisco was likely acquired  to earn a sandwich pick, but he's too likely to accept arbitration at this point.

So, hum, how's McGowan doing?

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Thomas - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#238232) #
He might be be a step up from Rivera, but if so it's not by much.

And the step up of not having Francisco on the roster...

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Kasi - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#238233) #
I don't know who our closer should be, but it shouldn't be either Rauch of Francisco. Leave them as lower leverage guys in earlier innings. I think Frasor really has to get the job, with hopefully Jansen filling in in Frasor's firefighter 7th inning role.
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Gwyn - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#238235) #
Frasor as the closer has worked so wonderfully the last dozen or so times it's been tried.
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Ryan Day - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#238236) #
[JPA]'s the kind of guy, it seems to me, that will ride that up-and-down wave a few times before he finds his level.

I kind of expect him to be up-and-down throughout his career. In a way, he reminds me of Vernon Wells, who can put a team on his back for a month or so and then spend the next month flailing about at random pitches with nothining to show for it but a bunch of infield flies.

Arencibia's got the tools to have a monster season if things break right, but it probably won't be a smooth road there.
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Mike Green - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#238237) #
Yep, Mags, I am pretty sure.  OPS+ is too kind to Wells and not kind enough to Davis.  wRC+ (Runs Created adjusted for context) is better; the numbers are from Fangraphs.  Wells is at 82, 117, 88, 125 and 71 for 2007-11.  Davis is at 105, 77, 116, 100 and 70.  Let's call the defence even (and that is probably kind to Wells at this point).  Davis is two years younger. 

The key reasons why OPS+ misses so badly in the comparison are- Wells' relative strength is slugging while Davis' is OBP and OPS+ gets the weighting significantly wrong, Wells grounds into many more DPs, and Davis is an effective and prolific base-stealer.

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R Romero Vaughan - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#238238) #

While I understand AA's desire to get a leg up on the competition through acquiring draft choices as compensation for departing FAs, I do believe he is maybe being a little too cute and making this factor drive too many personnel decisions.

We are spending more than 10 million dollars on Dotel, Rauch and Francisco - was this really a good allocation of resources? Or was too much emphasis put on the (non certain) draft compensation at the end of the year.

10 million dollars on international FAs or the draft (or Mike Napoli!) gets you quite alot, or he could have tried for a Mike Lowell to Boston salary dump type trade to use the 10 million he allocated on the 3 relievers.

TB have shown how you can cobble together a bullpen very cheaply from scratch. I think the wide range of performance of FA relievers speaks to the risks - and in a clearly non contending year, I don;t really see the point. David Purcey might as well still be here - and we coudl have a look at Farquar etc..

It seemed a strange decision to commit so much to those 3 at the time, and largely influnced by the FA compensation system. It hasn''t really worked.

The other point I'd make is that when people talk about t keeping Frasor or Rauch for draft compensation rather than trading them for prospects there is a cost to that - a signing bonus. If we trade for the prospect you don't have to pay his bonus. For 3 or 4 picks that adds up. There is also the salary cost for the portion of the season remaining. Add these together for 3 or 4 players and you are talking real money.

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Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#238239) #
Wells' relative strength is slugging while Davis' is OBP

Davis' OBP over those three seasons is .320, Wells' is .314. That makes up for a 60 point advantage in slugging?
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Paul D - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#238240) #
  Frasor as the closer has worked so wonderfully the last dozen or so times it's been tried.   It's only really failed once, hasn't it, the start of last season?  He's been fine the other times.
That said, I think I'd try Jansen or Zep.
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Mike Green - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#238241) #
Don't forget that Davis was in Oakland and Wells was in Toronto for most of this period.  The OBP difference adjusted for context is larger than 6 points. 

We just believe that Wells would have to be the kind of player who would be at least half-decent in his early 30s.  He had power, good hand-eye co-ordination, good speed for a big man, and fine instincts in the field when he was in his early 20s.  You would have guessed that while he would lose speed, he would add a little power and a little plate discipline by his late 20s and hold most of that offensive talent into his early 30s.  It did not happen.  He's a lower case Cesar Cedeno story, at least so far, and the window for improvement is rapidly closing.

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Gwyn - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#238242) #
To be fair to Frasor - who I think is a very good fit as a middle reliever - he's only flamed out horribly twice as a closer that I can remember, early last year and in 2007 after Ryan and before Accardo. He did do a decent job of closing late in 2009. Somehow though my memories of Frasor in save situations always brings up the image of that forlorn look he gets on his face as he watches another homer sail over his head.
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Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#238243) #
the window for improvement is rapidly closing.

Oh, I think that horse has left the stable, for both guys. They are what they are, and soon they won't even be that. But if money were no object (and when has that ever been true), I still think it's a pretty easy choice.

Of course, I've actually seen quite a bit of Vernon Wells playing baseball really well. I've really only seen Davis play it... the other way.
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Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#238244) #
hold most of that offensive talent into his early 30s.

Hang on, hang on. I could have sworn Wells hit .273/.331/.515 fairly recently. One of the better seasons of his notoriously up-and-down career, in fact. It wasn't too long ago, was it? It was... let me see... oh right.

Last year.
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Kasi - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#238245) #
And it was bracketed by awful years. Which is kind of the problem with Wells' career. I think they're fairly even at this point. Wells higher power vs Davis' better OBP and speed (and likely defense). But since their contracts aren't even that kind of closes the deal.
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92-93 - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#238246) #
I'm sure I'll be bombarded with defensive statistics proving otherwise, but I don't think calling Wells & Davis' equal is being kind to Vernon at all, and I certainly don't think Rajai was the better CF if he played it anything like he has this year from 2007-2010. I was no fan of Vernon's range and believed the team was costing itself wins by not moving Rios to CF (which was not being done for the same reasons people want Bautista to stay in RF, i.e. the wrong ones), but I've seen nothing from Davis this year that makes me think he's as good defensively as Wells was, speed be damned. Vernon was an expert at reading balls off the bat and while he lost a step as the years went on (and the willingness to dive forward after hurting his shoulder), watching Davis and Patterson patrol CF has made me realize that Vernon was quite effective out there even towards the end.
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Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#238247) #
At least he has the occasional good year. Davis is dependably mediocre. A guy with no power and a career OBP of .319? Really, what's to like? Whereas Wells will sometimes surprise you, in a good way.

Again, I'm absolutely not saying the trade was a bad idea. But - and even as bad as Wells has been in Anaheim, so far - it has been and will continue to be a downgrade for 2011.
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92-93 - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#238248) #

David Purcey might as well still be here - and we coudl have a look at Farquar etc..

Just to clarify, Purcey was traded for Farquhar so having a look at both this year was impossible. And Purcey has been atrocious since being traded to Detroit.

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Matthew E - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#238249) #
The thing about defensive players is that there are quite a few guys who clearly know what they're doing out there. They may lack the range that they need to be really good glovemen, but there's nothing wrong with their skill, and that's obvious to people who watch them. It can lead to players being defensively overrated. I think that's what's happened with Wells, with Derek Jeter, with Roberto Alomar at times... I'm sure it's why I liked Ed Sprague as a player after having seen too much volatility from Kelly Gruber at bat and in the field.
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92-93 - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#238250) #

Davis has been far below his own average performance this year, which no-one saw coming.

Let's go over this again for those who have forgotten - Rajai Davis was brought to Toronto to be a 4th OF/platoon type player. When the team decided they didn't care about 2011-2012 and traded away their best pitcher and 2nd best hitter he was pressed into a larger role. His career first half OPS is .636, with a .758 OPS after the break. He really hasn't performed that far off from what the reasonable expectations should have been for him.

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Magpie - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#238251) #
Purcey has been atrocious since being traded to Detroit.

I wouldn't go that far. In his first 10 Detroit outings he gave up exactly one run, which is pretty OK. Then he had two awful games back-to-back when the entire Tigers staff was getting postively hammered (they gave up 31 runs in those two games.) In one of them his team was already losing 12-0 when he came into the game, so why would anyone care anyway? And he's given them another scoreless outing since that one.
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sam - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#238252) #
Defensively JP Arencibia has been extremely poor.  He's quite lazy behind the plate, not blocking balls and constantly getting mixed up with signs.  He lacks the natural ability to catch the ball and looks mechanical.  With all that being said, he is toughing out this season behind the plate.  Those nagging injuries are particularly hard on catchers and I have no idea how he is still playing if he indeed did dislocate his thumb.  The coaching staff will certainly appreciate his toughness and scouts will note that in their reports to GMs. 
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Kasi - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#238253) #
He's walking over 5/9 and he's getting very lucky on home run rate. Even with that his numbers are still mediocre. AA might have misjudged things with the relievers this year, but I don't think Purcey was one of them.
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92-93 - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#238254) #
While I did only look at the statline and not the overall distribution, it's counter-productive IMO to isolate 2 appearances when the guy has made 13 total. As well, the 10:11 K:BB ratio with Detroit is what caught my eye, and even without the 2 bad appearances it's at 10:9 in 12.1 innings, which suggests he was getting extremely lucky to not be giving up runs in those other appearances. He's been atrocious.
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smcs - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#238255) #
This season, lefties have had a BAbip of .455 against Purcey. He's walking too many, not striking out enough, but is also getting really bad luck.

Like it or not (I'm assuming most will be put into the 'not' category), the Jays bullpen is not going to change much. Janssen will come back, and Perez will be dispatched. Litsch will come back and Villaneuva or Reyes will be moved back into the bullpen and...somebody will go to make room. Or we get the lovely 8 man pen again.  I'd rather see more of Frasor, Camp and Janssen, than Rauch and Francisco. Dotel has been exactly as advertised and has killed righties will getting killed by lefties. I would like to see him in more high leverage situations, but only if he has to face righties. The main problem, as I see it, is that it is a crowded bullpen, but it is crowded with mediocrity.

Oh, and with last night's appearance, Jason Frasor sits at 449 games, just three behind Duane Ward for the franchise lead. He will have the record next week against the Yankees.

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Gerry - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#238256) #

If i remember correctly this is the third time this season that the waves of despair have washed over the fans.   First there was the time when robertdudek penned his lets get rid of these guys article.  I seem to recall a second time a few weeks ago, and now this.

But after each wave of despair the team immediately started to play better, so maybe we have a better weekend in store.

It's the ups and downs of a baseball season.

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ogator - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#238257) #
  If last night's ninth inning did not warrant an honest gag reflex of despair, it certainly qualified for a bout of morose questioning of direction and a nagging insistence that Kafka may have been on to something.
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James W - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#238258) #
For me, last night's game didn't provoke despair, but disbelief. This goes back to the initial question of the post: No, the Jays aren't in it, and weren't ever in it. Realizing that makes it easier to deal with games like last night's. Unfortunately it also emotionally dulls the positive moments.
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Mike Green - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#238259) #
Wells hasn't surprised me in a good way since 2006.  I know that he has pop, and he'll hit .270 in a good year.   He just doesn't do much to help a team win on average.  He's on the express Joe Carter train. 

This year, Wells' LD rate is under 10%.  For all the complaining about Aaron Hill (who had the similar microscopic rate last year), there is a much greater chance that Hill is a valuable contributor in 2012 than Wells is because he's 3 and 1/2 years younger. 

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BlueJaysLee - Friday, July 08 2011 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#238263) #
How about acquiring Huston Street from the Rockies? Good character guy, lots of movement on his pitches, threw well in the AL and isn't overly expensive (7.5M a year I think).
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cybercavalier - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#238314) #
Not impressed with the new manager.  Bullpen management, baserunning issues, in game strategy are areas I have concerns with Farrell's performance.

Re dan gordon:

Almost half season already, would Sandy Alomar be a better choice for the manager job in T.O. ? Catchers is usually good candidates for coaching and Sandy would have good social network through his brother for the betterment of his managerial position. In pitching, IMO it just takes a kind of tipping point to push Morrow, Reyes and Cecil into their better forms. If we still have Marcum, the pressure would have been less for the trio to improve.

IMO, actually, with those much prospects and players playing new positions for first times (Arencibia, Thames, Reyes as a lock as a back-of-rotation starter, Villanueva as starter, Lind as full time 1B), there will always be some question marks. I don't know about AA, but given his trade transaction history, he would could pull off trades to improve the team.

possible trade proposals:
1) EE to the D-backs for a second baseman (I am sure that Kelly Johnson was mentioned on this site at least a few times). Anyhow, the D-backs doesn't have a legit 3B after Reynolds left, whose strikeout is a concern anyway. Former Jays 2B/3B Ryan Roberts is playing satisfactorily, interested ? Roberts is also good at batting but not much defense, per Baseball Prospectus 2011.

2) Get Felix Pie from the Orioles. According to BP 2011, his days of highly regarded prospect status are long gone. But if Escobar can regain his form in T.O., Pie would at least a good bet to improve than Patterson. IMO, actually I am suggesting Patterson (plus something else) for him. He could at least hold CF with Davis until Gose would be ready at least in 2013 or after.
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Kasi - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#238318) #
I think the things we need is a solid starting pitcher, a good leftie out of the bullpen and a solid IF who can play 2B/3B. I think our outfield is getting pretty crowded already and we don't need to work on another reclamation project there.
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hypobole - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#238319) #

1) EE to the D-backs for a second baseman

 

Edwin has proven he cannot be an everyday third baseman, and I don't think the Dbacks need a DH.

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bpoz - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#238324) #
I have enjoyed reading this thread.

Gerry,I noticed that you have a youth movement going throughout the roster. By the end of this season we will know just how extensive the youth movement is. The off season moves will confirm the youth commitment. ie how young will the pen be.
As of today there are players throughout the organization that look like they have mastered their current level and are bucking for a promotion. d'Arnaud, AJ Jiminez, Marisknick & Knect come to my mind. I am sure AA knows that the clock for 2011 is running.

There is a full year before we get to the half way mark of 2012, so that is 500-600 ABs, if the AFL is included and there are no injuries. Lawrie, Thames, Cooper & Loewen have all done well enough to get called up. They & Mastro were 5 at the start of the season that I thought could improve to the necessary level. For opening day 2012 I add d'Arnaud, McDade & Seirra with Gose, J Jackson & possibly Jiminez also possible for a 2012 call up. Jiminez has hit better than Jackson IMO so I strongly feel that the AA catching should be cleared for him ASAP. I guess Molina is blocking them this year because he is a valuable type B FA.

Other stuff, We are out of it, JPA is proving a lot so he is our "current" catcher of the future, but Molina will eventually leave then d'Arnaud & Jiminez get a chance to compete for the position. Injury will play a key role. 2012 or before for d'Arnaud & 2013 for Jiminez is my ETA. Pittsburgh under .500.

I sort of disagree with you on the pitching selection for mid 2012. I also think we are still behind NYY, Bos & TB for 2012, so competing is unlikely. I agree with Romero & having 4 veterans in the pen. Zep & Perez will have lots of experience by opening day 2012 as does Janssen, so I need a 4th veteran. I expect Carlos V to be traded because he has a high value and Fraser & Camp are IMO easy Tybe B FA compensation and AA will want that. I don't want FF, Dotel & Rauch back because they get an automatic 7-9 inning role and they cannot be demoted for poor performance. Mills, Farquar, Richmond offer something to the back end of a pen, as do non elite minor league starters like Carreno.
Since I have seen far more success from Litsch & Cecil when they are healthy & at the top of their game than Morrow, Drabek and all others, I would give them an equal opportunity to win a 2012 job. We & AA can compare Morrow & Cecil for the rest of 2011, as well Reyes, & Litsch should also see some ML playing time. I have omitted Drabek, Stewart & Alvarez because they are young & unproven. As of today IMO they cannot out pitch Morrow, Cecil, Litsch & Reyes. These 4 are going to pitch this year until they make their IP limit, only then do Drabek & Stewart get starts. IMO AA should call them up & put them into the pen or something before they burn their 2011 option. I would have Litsch & Janssen use their full 30 day rehab as 1 way to accomplish this.
The 5 man rotation that gives us the best chance to win the most games should open the 2012 season. The youth movement in the position players, will cost us some games IMO but it is a necessary cost to forming a talented team that can contend. IMHO the 2012 5 man rotation will tell us who has lost his spot and who has not. If Cecil & Litsch can duplicate their best years in 2012 then we can trade them like we did Marcum and put in our potential but unproven studs. Reyes will have 1 or 2 approx full years to establish his status as a SP and then he can be treated accordingly.
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cybercavalier - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#238325) #
First of foremost, excuse my broken words as I was multi-tasking.

Re Kasi, I agree that the Jays need a solid starting pitcher and had given Marcum for Lawrie. Also, assuming Pie is better than both Davis and Patterson, would I as a Jays' fan like to see a Thames, Snider, Pie outfield starting regularly until someone is ready stepping in (persumably Gose) than the Patterson and Davis platoon ? IMO, as long as it is an improvement, I vote for it.

On EE, Rivera and Nix, they are taking up roster spots. For the Jays, new ways of creating value (for example, trade value) are needed. Nix was tried at 3B to boost his value in batting but failed. Similarly, EE at 3B defense and failed. Would sending Nix and EE to Vegas help boost their values ?

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hypobole - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#238326) #
Cyber - Nix has already been DFA'd, cleared waivers and accepted assignment to LV. He is no longer taking up a roster spot but also has (and will almost assuredly  continue to have) no trade value.
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Kasi - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#238329) #
No need to send EE anywhere. The guy is hitting great lately. As an exclusive DH he is quite a strong batter to have in the lineup, especially for where he is hitting in it (between 6-8).

Pie might be an upgrade over Davis, but it would be slight. If he's not going to start I don't see the point in pursuing someone for a 4th OF role, unless we can just claim him off waivers or something.
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TamRa - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#238348) #
over the last 14 games, EE has an .847 OPS

On the other hand, Adam Lind has a .532 OPS over the last 19 games.

*sigh*

Ah the roller coaster that is baseball....

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cybercavalier - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#238353) #
Thanx hyperpole. Nix can learn to play shortstop for the 51s with Woodward et al. coming in as late-inning substitution. In Vegas, only Mayorson and Nix are under age 30 and can ON PAPER still improve; the other guys are above (Woodward, Howard, Vazquez) and pretty much WYSIWYG in terms of batting performance. If Nix learns shortstop and regains his batting ability, IMO he could make himself a good chip for the bench of a MLB team. However, I don't mean Nix will all in a sudden become a hot commodity that the Jays can trade, far from it.

Pie might be an upgrade over Davis, but it would be slight. If he's not going to start I don't see the point in pursuing someone for a 4th OF role, unless we can just claim him off waivers or something.

I read somewhere in the past that Pie is compared to Patterson for more or less in the same path to MLB: highly regarded as a prospect or drafted in early rounds for their entries to professional baseball and failure to date in realizing the potentials. So as Patterson is now more or less delegated to the bench or the second choice behind Davis for CF platoon, why not flip him to the O's for Pie, who is also behind Scott, Neimold, Jones, Markakis and Valdy ? Patterson does have some trade value. If he is let go by the end of this season, all the work done during the first few months of 2011 season (from himself and the Jays team) would have gone for nothing. Or unless some trades or brilliant ideas are hidden by AA, but they are beyond us as fans.


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cybercavalier - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#238358) #
So I basically meant trading Patterson for Pie but not Davis for Pie. Davis is a huge base-stealing threat to Jays' opponent teams and Patterson or Pie can't replace that status now.
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Chuck - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#238364) #

why not flip him [Patterson] to the O's for Pie

Because the Orioles wouldn't make that trade??? The Orioles had Patterson last year when he hit better than he is hitting right now. And they made no effort to bring him back. Why would they turn around and now trade for him?

Your trade proposals have always struck me as ridiculously optimistic. You proposed several deals involving Nix, whom all of baseball has just said no thank you to as he cleared waivers. And now you are proposing moving Patterson to the very team that recently elected to take a pass on him.

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Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2011 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#238365) #
He is no longer taking up a roster spot but also has (and will almost assuredly continue to have) no trade value.

You never know. Some GM might give you... a ride to the airport in exchange?

But otherwise - no. These guys are not tradeable, and you really can't pump up their value to fool other GMs into thinking they're desireable. They've been around them block. They know about the PCL and Las Vegas. They actually go there and watch the games....
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TamRa - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 05:28 AM EDT (#238400) #
You proposed several deals involving Nix, whom all of baseball has just said no thank you to as he cleared waivers.

That's as close as an irrefutable argument as it gets, lol
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bpoz - Sunday, July 10 2011 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#238409) #
This is the the Play GM thread. For the Jays. So here is my attempt.
I would be making more TB type moves than NYY/Bos type moves.
I believe $75,000 per player got me F Lewis, Carlos V & J Nix. F Lewis & Nix came in to fill positions that were empty, IMO and at a low cost.
Having enough success with the Jays gave Lewis a 2011 ML job.
Nix played a lot with the Jays but unfortunately he had to play 3rd rather than 2nd, where apparently he is supposed to be good or decent. Eventually he became OK at 3B but his bat failed him. He missed a great opportunity. Being out of options hurt him, McCoy can go up & down & maybe does more.
Nix's ML stats show that he has pretty good power but a low BA. If he can improve his plate discipline or something he will get another chance, being cheap is a huge advantage as well.
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