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Words to that effect may have come out of the mouth of Brett Lawrie.  They may also have been muttered by the Blue Jays organization and the fan base Tuesday night.  Sportsnet's Shi Davidi says the Langley, B.C. native was hit in the hand by a pitch during his first at-bat by Tucson Padres hurler Anthony Bass at Cashman Field.  It appeared the Jays had planned to call Lawrie up in time for Friday's game in Baltimore but that plan now appears to be out the window.

In case anyone cares how the affiliates did Tuesday night, it was not a banner evening as four of the five affiliates joined the parent club in the loss column.  At least they were not totally screwed.


Tucson 4 Las Vegas 1

Las Vegas, NV - The Padres put up runs in the third, fourth, fifth and seventh innings.  The 51s scored their run in the third.

Batting - Danny Perales (3-4) provided 30% of the Las Vegas hit total.  Manny Mayorson (2-5) had an RBI double while David Cooper (2-4) and Chris Woodward (2-4) also had multi-hit games.  Travis Snider and Ryan Budde went 1-for-4 with Snider getting a double.  Brett Lawrie (0-0, HBP) reached base the painful way and was replaced by Craig Stansberry (0-3).  Adam Loewen (0-4) and Jason Lane (0-4) had goose eggs in the hit column.  No 51 managed to draw a walk.

Running - Woodward stole his first base of the year and Perales collected his second against former Jays catcher Guillermo Quiroz.

Pitching - Lefty Willie Collazo met the quality start guidelines by allowing three earned runs in six innings but he took the loss to fall to 1-1.  He allowed 10 base runners on seven hits, two walks and hit a batter.  He racked up three strikeouts and seven of his 13 outs in play were of the ground ball variety.  Lefty Clint Everts pitched the final three innings and surrendered a run on three hits (one of them a home run) while also matching Collazo in the K column with three.  Also like Collazo, more than half of his five outs in play (3-2) were on the grass.

Defence - Dude!  Budde made an errant pick off throw and was unsuccessful in throwing out the lone base stealer who tested him with Everts on the mound.

Harrisburg 4 New Hampshire 2

Harrisburg, PA - The Nationals affiliate scored the first run of the game in the fifth but the Fisher Cats tied it in the eighth.  The Senators drilled a trey in their half of the eighth and that was enough to withstand another New Hampshire run in the ninth.

Batting - Moises Sierra (1-4) cranked his eighth home run of the season.  Anthony Gose (1-4) had the only other extra-base hit with a double.  Mark Sobolewski (2-3) had the only multi-hit game for New Hampshire while Travis d'Arnaud (0-2) reached base on ball four twice.  Darin Mastroianni (0-2) plated the other run with a sacrifice fly and drew a walk.  Ricardo Nanita (0-3) also got aboard once via the base on balls.  Callix Crabbe (0-2) had a sacrifice bunt but Adeiny Hechavarria (0-4) and Mike McDade (0-4) had nights to forget as they each struck out twice.

Running
- John Tolisano pinch-ran for Sobolewski in the eighth but did not score.

Pitching - Henderson Alvarez pitched six strong innings but received a no-decision.  His game WHIP was less than one as he surrendered just one run on four hits and a walk.  He rang up five Ks and seven of his 11 outs in play stayed on the green.  Alvarez had a stretch of retiring 12 of 14 batters.   Lefty Evan Crawford was saddled with the loss (1-2) as he was burned for two unearned runs in 1 1/3 innings on one hit, one walk and a hit by pitch.  B.J. LaMura allowed both of his inherited runners to score along with an unearned run of his own in 2/3 of an inning after allowing a hit and a walk.

Defence - Crabbe enjoyed seven errorless innings at second base.  The eighth inning was another story at another position.  Crabbe moved over to third after Sobolewski was replaced by a pinch-runner and he made fielding and throwing errors on consecutive plays.  Behind the plate, d'Arnaud was 0-for-3 in trying to nail base stealers with Alvarez (once) and Crawford (twice) on the hill.  On the bright side, Mastroianni gunned down runners at second and at home from left field.

Palm Beach 3 Dunedin 1

Dunedin, FL - The Cardinals put up single runs in the fifth, sixth and ninth while the D-Jays could only score once in the sixth.

Batting - Two singles and seven walks was all the Dunedin offence could put up.  Kevin Ahrens (1-3) singled and walked and Brad Glenn (1-4) had the other base knock.  Jon Talley (0-3) had a walk and an RBI.  Kenny Wilson (0-3) and Brian Van Kirk (0-1) each drew a walk and were hit by a pitch.  Justin Jackson (0-3), Sean Ochinko (0-3) and Ivan Contreras (0-3) drew bases on balls.  Brad McElroy went 0-for-1 in a pinch-hitting appearance.  A.J. Jimenez was 0-for-4 but he and McElroy were the only D-Jays not to strike out.  Talley had two of the nine whiffs.

Running - Wilson nabbed his 15th stolen base of 2011.  Chris Hopkins pinch-ran for Ochinko but did not score.

Pitching - Nestor Molina was one out short of an official quality start as he gave up two runs (including a solo homer) on six hits in 5 2/3 innings.  He struck out seven and all nine of his outs in play were on the ground but still took the loss to fall to 5-3.  Chad Beck stranded the two runners he inherited from Molina.  He plunked a batter and struck one out over 1 1/3 shutout innings.  Dumas Garcia gave up a hit and a walk while striking out a pair over a scoreless inning.  Scott Gracey was also burned by the long ball as he gave up a run on two hits.  Still, the groundout/flyout total from the Dunedin pitchers was an impressive 13-3.

Defence - Jackson mishandled a ball at short and Glenn did the same in right field.  The Cardinals were 1-for-1 in base stealing against Jimenez and Beck.

Lansing 8 Peoria 4

Lansing, MI - The Lugnuts put up a quick six in the first inning and kicked the extra point in the fourth.  The Cubs affiliate put up a desperation trey and converted a free throw at the foul line in the eighth.  Lansing tacked on an insurance run in their half of the eighth to just to make sure this one wound up in the win column.

Batting - The Lugnuts hit the ball on the screws 10 times and sent three of them over the fence.  The home run trio were Bryson Namba (2-3), Kevin Nolan (2-4) and Carlos Perez (1-4).  All three drew a walk with Namba collecting three RBI, Nolan driving in two and Perez plating one.  Markus Brisker (2-4) reached base four times, including a triple and two walks from the leadoff spot.    Marcus Knecht (2-4) had a double and Michael Crouse (1-3) had a walk.  Gustavo Pierre (0-3) heard ball four once, which is more than K.C. Hobson (0-4) and Lance Durham (0-5) could say.  Durham's sombrero and Crouse's half-sombrero accounted for six of the Lugnuts 11 strikeouts.  Knecht and Hobson were the only ones to avoid strike three.

Running - Brisker stole his 12th base of the year and Nolan got his first.

Pitching - Daniel Webb supplied six shutout innings by scattering six hits and two walks.  He struck out four to improve his record to 4-4.  His groundout/flyout mark was 7-3.  Webb got a break to end the first inning when a batted ball hit a base runner at first.  He retired 8 out of 10 batters during one stretch.   Marcus Walden was victimized for all four runs on four hits and a walk over 1 2/3 innings.  Steven Turnbull stranded a runner for Walden and struck out two over 1 1/3 scoreless frames for save number 13 on the campaign.

Defence - Hobson and Pierre teamed up to deliver a 3-6 double play.  Perez threw out a runner trying to steal second with Webb on the mound.

DSL Angels 5 DSL Blue Jays 0

Dominican Republic - The Angels scored all of their runs in the odd-numbered innings with two of them coming in the first.

Batting
- Cesar Barazarte (1-2, BB, HBP), Tonguar Perez (1-3, 3B), John Delgado (1-4, 2B) and Angel Rojas (1-4) had all of the Jays hits.  Gabriel Cenas (0-3, BB) was the only other Jay to get on base but he struck out twice.  Mauricio Nagahashi (0-4 but a good Irish name!), Alvaro Blanco (0-3), Luis Martin (0-3) and (where in the world is...) Kervin Santiago (0-3) could not reach base.  Gabriel Quintana was 0-for-1 off the bench.

Running - Barazarte was thrown out trying to steal second.

Pitching - Edgar Manaure had a manure time of it on the mound by getting just four outs.  He yielded two runs on a hit, three walks and hit a batter.  Manuare also uncorked a wild pitch but he also struck out a pair.  Luis Zerpa stranded both runners he inherited but he gave up a run in 2 2/3 innings.  He did the opposite of Manuare by allowing three hits and a walk but he also struck out a couple.  Lefty Ericdavis Marquez was nicked for a run on one hit while whiffing a batter in his one inning of work.  Eyerys Guerrero finished up with the final three innings and allowed a run on two hits but punched out four batters in the process.

Defence - Santiago was 0-for-4 in throwing out base stealers.  They were split evenly with Manuare and Zerpa on the hill.  Cenas and Blanco converted a 5-4 double play.

*** 3 Stars!!! ***



3.  Henderson Alvarez, New Hampshire


2.  Bryson Namba, Lansing (image provided by Gerry!)


1.  Markus Brisker, Lansing


Extra Innings...
  • The New Hampshire Union Leader says the month of May was the best ever in franchise history for the Fisher Cats.
  • Shi Davidi files this promising report on Dustin McGowan.
  • The Lansing State Journal profiles two Lugnuts, catcher Jack Murphy and reliever Danny Barnes.
Mother Tucker! Fuzzy Sock Sucker! | 55 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
TamRa - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 02:00 AM EDT (#235879) #
Grif tweets that Lawrie will join the team in B'more and will be officially activated on the day they think he's ready to play.
brent - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 02:51 AM EDT (#235880) #
just a bruise- everyone exhale
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#235881) #
That's good.  I really thought I'd get up this morning and read that Lawrie's hand was broken and he's out for three months.
mathesond - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#235882) #
I'm the one to blame for this. For a couple of weeks I've had Lawrie rostered on 2 of my fantasy teams, and this past weekend I started a "Free Brett Lawrie" campaign on one of the message boards. My bad.
Dave Till - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#235883) #
Lawrie's Twitter feed now reports that it's just a bruise.

I knew that Lawrie was doing well in Vegas, but I didn't realize how well: he's leading the PCL in hits, extra-base hits, doubles, runs and total bases. And he's 21. And Canadian. And plays third base, which is the Jays' biggest weakness at present. It's like he was ordered up from Central Casting.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#235884) #
Don't look now, Dave, but Marcus Knecht is tearing it up in the Midwest League.  Knecht is from Toronto and would make a fine addition to the Blue Jays of 2014 to provide a nice balance to Lawrie's West Coast upbringing. 

Where have you gone, Dave L. McKay?
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you
What's that you say, Frankie Robinson?
Disco Dave has left and gone away.


mathesond - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#235885) #
Hmmm...maybe substitute Ferguson Jenkins for Frankie Robinson?
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#235889) #
For conspiracy theorist - Jordan Lyes of the Astos made his MLB debut yesterday and MLB TRADE RUMOURS pointed out that if he never is demoted he would have 2yrs 121days of  service and likely safe from super 2 as last year it was unusually low at 2y 122d. We are likely to see a bevy of top prospects promoted soon. 
ogator - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#235894) #

There is no way that "Fergererergie Jenkins" scans.  "Dave Mackay" was a bit of a stretch, poetically.  As a strength and conditioning coach, he always stretched.

 

92-93 - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#235895) #
There's a player on the DSL Jays named ERICDAVIS Marquez?!
ayjackson - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#235897) #
Jenkins, Ferguson works.
cybercavalier - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#235900) #
With Lawrie and Lind coming back roughly the same time, which 2 players to be sent down ? 2 of Luis Perez, McCoy, Thames, JohnnyMac, and Nix ?
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#235909) #
"Jenkins Ferguson" is inspired, guys.  Don't know if Anne Bancroft is up for the part in the movie, though.
MatO - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#235910) #

Sort of off topic but Jeff Blair had Steve Wynn of the band The Baseball Project on his show as they are playing the Horseshoe tonight.  The band counts Peter Buck of REM as a member (Buck couldn't make the tour so Mike Mills of REM is taking his place).  Anyways they have a couple of baseball themed LPs to thir credit: Frozen Ropes and Dying Quails and High and Inside.  Don't know if they're any good but some of their tunes have terrific titles.  Check the link below.

http://store.yeproc.com/artist.php?id=12539

Dave Rutt - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#235918) #
Cool, thanks MatO. Listen to them here.
Kelekin - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#235919) #
Good thing my merciless taunting of Bryson Namba all pre-season is paying off.  If only it worked for Gari Pena.
Kelekin - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#235920) #
Jake Marisnick activated from the DL.  Will be good to have him back in that line-up.
Denoit - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#235921) #
With Lawrie and Lind coming back roughly the same time, which 2 players to be sent down ? 2 of Luis Perez, McCoy, Thames, JohnnyMac, and Nix ?

McDonald is still on the DL, there will be a spot for him when he gets back. I think they have to give Perez a chance to keep pitching. McCoy is expendable, but probably will stay untill McDonald is back. I think the Nix experiment is almost done. He has done a good job but really he was never a long term solution. Thames is the wildcard. If they want to give him a shot, then I believe it will come at the expense of Encarnacion. If they want to give EE a little more time to come around and play DH like he was supposed to then Thames is the other one sent down. I think the latter case is more likely, and Thames will be the one sent down.
ayjackson - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#235923) #
Can't forget Encarnacion.  I don't think there's room to keep both Perez and Thames, unfortunately, unless you get rid of EE.  You need one of Nix/McCoy/Jmac on the bench and it'll probably be Jmac when he's healthy.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#235931) #
DFA Hill
TamRa - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#235936) #
Why DFA the guy hitting slightly better, with a FAR better glove, who's making twice as much money?

You've gone from at lease some simbelence of making a case against him to just pure emotional "get him out of my sight!!!"
cybercavalier - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#235937) #
I believe Nix was traded from the Indians for PTBNL. Now with his trade value closing to nil, the Jays may just send him back when either one of Lind and Lawrie arrived at T.O.; his scenario resembles that of Alex Gonzalez 2.0 of last season. But, Nix' performance does not show up and he is not a prospect from the beginning (age 31) . And I think Thames still need more time to improve his skills: 13K per 37 AB translate into almost 1K per 3AB or 1K for every game he starts, whether the improvement will take place in TO or Vegas shall remain to be decided. McCoy is almost always expandable; with Lawrie the 3B coming to TO, sending McCoy back to Vegas for the fifth time this season is even more tempting. Perez has the privilege of the unknown of how he fare in staying for long time in TO. JohnnyMac is JohnnyMac: what you know is what you get.

So in a nutshell, trade Nix back to the Indians and keep close eyes on Thames and EE's performance. If a transaction cannot be made with clear decision, send McCoy. IMO, I feel sorry for McCoy, who more or less becomes the easy victim of the player movement this season; hopefully he will find a home soon.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#235944) #
Adam Lind had a nice rehab outing in Dunedin, going 3-4 with a double.
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#235949) #
Why DFA the guy hitting slightly better, with a FAR better glove, who's making twice as much money?

DFA the worst hitter on the team that can't play a premium defensive position. Makes sense to me.
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#235950) #
after tonight's game:

1) Bautista: 1.276ops
2) Lind: .858ops
3) Molina: .839ops
4) Escobar: .820ops
5) Arencibia: .803ops
6) Patterson: .775ops
7) Thames: .743ops
8) Davis: .708ops
9) Rivera: .655ops
10) Nix: .653ops
11) Encarnacion: .638ops
12) Hill: .609ops
13) McDonald: .547ops / McCoy: .601ops

Given that we need JMac to backup SS, makes sense to drop the next worst hitter on the team in Hill when Lawrie comes up, especially since Hill was the worst hitter on the team last year as well.
hypobole - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 02:09 AM EDT (#235953) #

So in a nutshell, trade Nix back to the Indians

You make this sound like a Walmart transaction. (I hope AA kept the receipt.) The Indians traded Nix (for cash, not a PTBNL) because they had too many infielders. Why would they want  him back?

Spifficus - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 03:00 AM EDT (#235954) #

DFA the worst hitter on the team that can't play a premium defensive position. Makes sense to me.

Or we could DFA the hitter who's about as 'effective' offensively and can't even play any non-premium positions... Given the choices, I'll keep the punch-and-judy hitter who can field 2B vs the punch-and-judy hitter who butchers both 3B and 1B. A shame, too. I actually hoped Encarnacion could be a RH version of Hinske this year. Doesn't look like that was meant to be, though.

TamRa - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 03:24 AM EDT (#235955) #
Quote:
"Given that we need JMac to backup SS, makes sense to drop the next worst hitter on the team in Hill when Lawrie comes up, especially since Hill was the worst hitter on the team last year as well."


Except Hill isn't the next worse hitter, and is a better defender than EE and better historically on defense than Nix.

He's probably a better hitter than Rivera too, but Rivera is the only guy on the roster who can back up 1B (sadly - I'm ready to ditch rivera and try Loewen there - but that's probably irrational)

And again, if you are eating a contract, EE's is less a meal than Hill's is.

Worst hitters, ranked from the bottom up:

McDonald
McCoy (those two interchangeable for one spot)

EE
Nix
Hill - those three virtually interchangable at this very moment on offense. Hill's been almost 100 points better than that season line since April 15 though. Since 4/15 Hill is running a .705 OPS and Nix has posted a .455 - for comparison EE is at .585 for his last 90 AB

so career wise or current, Hill at least edges the other two and his the best defender.

Rivera
Thames - older guy is tanking again, kid at least has upside

Molina - one assumes this is an illusion?

Davis - steadily on the rise

Arencibia
Escobar
Lind*
Bautista

Rivera edges thames in terms of the roster spot because
a. he plays first
b. Thames needs to play every day
c. there's the matter of most of $5 mil


there's probably exactly one person on the face of the earth that would keep even Nix over Hill, let alone keeping EE on the team.

I predict Lind bumps Thames and that Lawrie either bumps a pitcher, or EE gets the same DFA trip to Vegas he got last year.

there's a non-zero chance Nix is pushed through waivers instead but it's tiny.

And still 10,000 times larger than the chance Hill goes anywhere unless he's trade for a respectable return.
rpriske - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#235957) #

When Lawrie comes up McCoy is sent down. (Nix does his job... more or less)

 

When Lind comes up Thames is sent down. (Which is too bad. I would much rather they send EE on his way)

brent - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#235958) #

Nix isn't 31. He's still 28.

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=434624&c_id=tor#sectionType=career

Cybercavalier, you gotta do better than that ^^

Paul D - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#235959) #

Aaron Hill is not a better hitter than Juan Rivera.  Come on.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#235960) #
Aaron Hill's     wOBA 2007-2011: .341, .307, .357, .291, .282
Juan Rivera's wOBA 2007-2011: .318, .307, .348, .314, .292

I'd call that a draw.  Hill's 2011 line is actually nowhere near as frightening as his 2010.  He's hitting line drives and fly balls.  If he had hit his career rate of 8% HR/FB, he would have 5 homers and have a typical year for him offensively.  I expect his wOBA to be in the .320-.330 range by the end of the year.

Paul D - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#235962) #
Aaron Hill's     wOBA 2007-2011: .341, .307, .357, .291, .282
Juan Rivera's wOBA 2007-2011: .318, .307, .348, .314, .292

Interesting.  I was looking at OPS+. 
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#235964) #
Except Hill isn't the next worse hitter

even if I were to agree with you, the facts would still disagree.
Kasi - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#235966) #
It's pretty obvious that EE would be DFA'd before Hill would be. I'd say the same thing for Nix as well.

I just hope this bruise doesn't set Lawrie back and that he is up here next week. Knowing our luck he'll have two 0 for games in his Vegas games and they'll decide he's not ready again.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#235967) #
PaulD, one key factor this year is that Hill has not grounded into any double plays (while Rivera has rapped into 8 so far).  Hill is hitting the ball harder than last year and is hitting many fewer ground balls.   
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#235973) #
Career wOBA:

1) RF Bautista (30): .360
2) 1B Lind (27): .343
3) SS Escobar (28): .341
4) DH Encarnacion (28): .340
5) BN Thames (24): .335
6) BN Rivera (32): .334
7) C Arencibia (25): .327
8) CF Davis (30): .325
9) 2B HILL (29): .325
10) LF Patterson (31): .306
11) 3B Nix (28): .295
12) BN Molina (36): .277
13) BN McDonald (36): .266


3-Year wOBA:

1) RF Bautista (30): .415
2) 1B Lind (27): .354
3) SS Escobar (28): .335
4) BN Thames (24): .335
5) CF Davis (30): .332
6) C Arencibia (25): .327
7) BN Rivera (32): .326
8) DH Encarnacion (28): .322
9) 2B HILL (29): .322
10) LF Patterson (31): .316
11) 3B Nix (28): .304
12) BN Molina (36): .299
13) BN McDonald (36): .280


2-Year wOBA:

1) RF Bautista (30): .448
2) DH Thames (24): .335
3) LF Patterson (31): .329
4) C Arencibia (25): .327
5) BN Molina (36): .324
6) DH Encarnacion (28): .323
7) 1B Lind (27): .320
8) SS Escobar (28): .319
9) CF Davis (30): .319
10) BN Rivera (32): .307
11) 3B Nix (28): .295
12) 2B HILL (29): .289
13) BN McDonald (36): .281


1-Year wOBA:

1) RF Bautista (30): .530
2) BN Molina (36): .377
3) 1B Lind (27): .368
4) SS Escobar (28): .360
5) C Arencibia (25): .347
6) DH Thames (24): .335
7) LF Patterson (31): .334
8) CF Davis (30): .315
9) 3B Nix (28): .300
10) BN Rivera (32): .292
11) DH Encarnacion (28): .284
12) 2B HILL (29): .282
13) BN McDonald (36): .241


and remembering with the Nix-Hill comparison:

Career UZR/150 @ 2B:

Hill (29): 4.3
Nix (28): 12.3

3-Year UZR/150 @ 2B:

Hill (29): -1.1
Nix (28): 11.2
92-93 - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#235974) #
We get it. Nix has hit slightly better than Hill since the start of 2010 in his 450 PA. Nobody cares.

Hill has the upside of a 4 win player, makes 8m a year, and has team options for the next two. The Blue Jays HAVE to find out what they have in him for 2012 and beyond. If you DFA him today and he goes on to post a .325/.450 for another team you feel very silly.

The Jayson Nixs of the world are a dime a dozen.
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#235977) #
I'm sure plenty of Jays fans care about discussing the true value of our players, and which players on our roster give us the best possible lineup right now, even if you might not.

There is absolutely zero chance that AA picks up Hill's options. So we can safely ignore that part of the Hill question.

The only thing we have to figure out is whether we want to be a team that settles on signing this mediocre defensive 2B with a poor stick player this offseason (who'll likely be overpaid due solely to his HR-inflated reputation), or a team that ponies up and tries to sign an impact 2B like Kelly Johnson.
92-93 - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#235980) #
Funny, because I'm usually the only one who cares about what the current roster looks like, since most are resigned to not competing until 2014.

If Aaron Hill puts an .800 OPS up the rest of the way his option will be picked up. To say that there's absolutely zero chance is sheer madness.
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#235981) #
There is zero chance that AA pays out $16m/2yrs for a 30 year old mediocre defensive 2B with a career .320wOBA and 96ops+, who has only one month with a better than .685ops over his last 2 seasons.

That would be ludicrous.

Flex - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#235987) #
I don't think Hill's options will be picked up. However, given Hill's history with the team, and the lack of a legit replacement in the immediate term, I think it's most likely that Anthopoulos and Hill's agent redraw Hill's contract so that he's making something closer to what he deserves for two more years while showing respect for his value as a defensive player and quality person.
rtcaino - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#235991) #
What does Hill make now? 5M?

Any opinions on his chances of snagging a compensatory pick?
DaveB - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#235997) #
There is absolutely zero chance that AA picks up Hill's options. So we can safely ignore that part of the Hill question.

The only thing we have to figure out is whether we want to be a team that settles on signing this mediocre defensive 2B with a poor stick player this offseason (who'll likely be overpaid due solely to his HR-inflated reputation), or a team that ponies up and tries to sign an impact 2B like Kelly Johnson.

There is not a zero chance of the options being picked up, so that part of the Hill question can't be ignored. He is not a mediocre defensive 2B. Middle infield defense is the best defensive aspect of this team and Hill continues to be a plus defender to anyone who doesn't just rely on small-sample, incomplete metrics and isn't inclined to dismiss every play he makes with the glove. One of the crucial things that management also has to figure out is the trade market for Hill. He does have more trade value, rightly or wrongly, than guys like McCoy, Nix, Molina, EE, Rivera and Patterson. It's not just his fading power reputation that gives him trade value, it's his defense, character and the reasonable contract he's under. The Hill hatred is fine up to a point. He is certainly the worst hitter on the team and at this rate he can be replaced by someone much cheaper without hurting the team in the short term. I like Kelly Johnson but there's an example of a guy whose home park bat inflates his presumed value. He's a poor defender and is not exactly tearing it up this year. He would be an upgrade on Hill, but if you think he's going to be an "impact player" over the next 3-5 yrs at $6 million plus per year than you're deluding yourself. He would be a useful guy and a nice complementary LHB piece in the lineup, but he will hurt you in the field and is only going to get worse defensively in his 30's.

As poorly as Hill has done at the plate the last 14 months, it makes no sense to DFA him as long as EE is occupying a roster spot and AAAA types like McCoy are needed. It makes no sense to DFA him when he will bring back comp picks (he's a Type A at this point) if the options are not picked up or he does not agree to stick around at a lower salary (presuming he does have some resurgence at the plate, which if he continues to hit line drives around 20 per cent of the time he may just do). The Jays will either trade Hill mid-season or keep him around, perhaps stick him in the 9 hole where he belongs and use a full season's worth of performance to make a better-informed decision than any of the critics eager to erase him from their sight are capable of making at this time.
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#236011) #
As far as I know, three years of UZR/150 is usually considered a pretty solid statistical tool.

Last 3 years UZR/150:

A.Hill: 2907inn, -1.1 (23rd of 34 2B with min 1000inn)
K.Johnson: 2358inn, +5.0 (8th of 34 2B with min 1000inn)

Since his concussion, Hill seems to have been an average at best fielder at 2B. Johnson, after some struggles in the first couple years of his career, seems to have turned himself into one of the better defensive 2B around.

As for Johnson's offense, his career .348woba is better than any Jay other than Bautista. The only MLB 2B with better career wOBAs are Utley (.387), Pedroia (.362), Kinsler (.362), Cano (.357), Weeks (.353), and Uggla (.352). As far as the arizona ballpark boosting his numbers, his two full seasons in Atlanta saw him post wOBAs of .363 and .346. His home park definitely helped him post career high numbers last year, but he still posted a .340woba on the road. Johnson's comfortably a top-10 2B in baseball, IMO, and would instantly turn a position of weakness into a position of strength.



Mike Green - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#236014) #
Three years of UZR is one good marker.  I would also look at the other markers, DRS and TZ, as well as subjective impressions.  The other markers for Hill are positive, and some of the components for Hill's UZR make you scratch your head.  He is considered to be negative on turning the DP.  There is quite a bit of ambiguity in that designing a DP rating system, and my own subjective view is that Hill's pivot, athleticism at the bag and release are, at minimum, significantly above average.
uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#236018) #
I'm no expert, but the average defensive numbers for Hill don't really surprise me compared to what I've observed from him the last while. Solid, workmanlike, average defense in most every area is what I see from Hill out there...though this year his range seems to be slipping to arguably below average. He definitely doesn't make the wide-ranging plays to either side that a young Hill used to make with regularity.
cybercavalier - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#236046) #
A quick note because I am on the go. How about mix and match Hill, EE, Nix and McCoy at 2B and 3B ? Can Hill play 3B ? Will playing 3B be detriment to Hill image of a regular Jays starting fielder ? With Lawrie coming to TO, Farrell has options in how he lines up his batters on the card and the infield.
Mike Green - Friday, June 03 2011 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#236054) #
Cecil threw a complete game in Las Vegas, allowing 1 run with 3 walks, 6 Ks and no homers.  He's 7-1 with an ERA over 5 courtesy of a blowout in Colorado Springs in his first outing. 
Chuck - Friday, June 03 2011 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#236059) #

How about mix and match Hill, EE, Nix and McCoy at 2B and 3B ? Can Hill play 3B ? Will playing 3B be detriment to Hill image of a regular Jays starting fielder ? With Lawrie coming to TO, Farrell has options in how he lines up his batters on the card and the infield.

Not sure what the impetus for mixing and matching is.

It's pretty clear that EE's days on the field are done, so he's out of the equation. And it's not like he's hitting so well that you'd elect to just live with his glove.

McCoy is a classic 26th man and warrants no accommodation. That's the frank and brutal truth.

Nix may well have an upside but more likely is another fringe major leauger, perhaps a wee bit less fringy than McCoy. He also warrants no accommodation.

Hill was at least once a good player so there is at least a basis for optimism with him, if even slight. I think that second base should be his for at least the balance of the season. There has been much debate regarding Hill in other threads.

In AA's perfect world, Lawrie gets called up and becomes the team's third baseman indefinitely. But that's the perfect world. 21-year olds suffer setbacks. It just happens. Should Lawrie start strong, one or both of Nix and EE may find themselves on the bubble. Frankly, I think EE will be released at some point in the summer. He has no trade value and is just one more piece of clutter in the dugout.

Come 2012, I think that all of Nix, Encarnacion, Rivera, Patterson and McCoy will be names from the past. Some would argue that Hill might be on that list as well.

vw_fan17 - Friday, June 03 2011 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#236077) #
Come 2012, I think that all of Nix, Encarnacion, Rivera, Patterson and McCoy will be names from the past. Some would argue that Hill might be on that list as well.

If he continues hitting around 112 OPS+, I would argue that a case COULD be made for Patterson to stay.. Especially if he's willing to be a 4th outfielder/pinch-runner/hitter, etc.. He can play all 3 outfield positions, he has some power, speed, etc... (OTOH, if he does hit 112 OPS+ for the season, he'll probably find a starting job somewhere.. If Snider can't put up decent numbers this year, it just might be here..)

At this point, I'd much rather see Patterson back than Hill, but I'm a fickle fan :-)

Agree with Nix, Encarnacion, Rivera and McCoy..
China fan - Friday, June 03 2011 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#236080) #
I agree that Patterson has a good chance of staying with the Jays next season, unless his numbers tail off dramatically.  At the very least, he'd be an excellent 4th OF. 
TamRa - Friday, June 03 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#236083) #
Actually I'd suggest mcCoy, or someone like him, will need to be here next year.

Here's the "everything comes up roses" scenario i see for the hitters in 2012:

C: JPA, Jeroloman or, more likely, a vet like Molina
1B: Lind
2B: Hill (uncertain, if he stays in the toilet, maybe a free agent)
SS: Escobar, McDonald (resigned)
3B: Lawrie
LF/DH: Snider/Thames
CF: Davis
RF: Bautista

That leaves potentially two slots. You need a reserve 1B and a reserve CF, and if you don't want McDonald as your sole reserve option at SS,2B, and 3B one of them needs to have some ability to play at least one of those positions.

McCoy, or someone like him, who can sub in CF if necessary, as well as in the IF, would be a key component to the bench.

And there are not that many others like him.

The last spot I'd try to give to Adam Loewen. Back up RF and 1B and occasionally DH (particularly if one of the LF comes up lame)
Chuck - Friday, June 03 2011 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#236090) #

If he continues hitting around 112 OPS+, I would argue that a case COULD be made for Patterson to stay

If he continues hitting like that he absolutely should stay, no question. But that's one mighty honking if, though. Obviously he has been a pleasant surprise, and just when I expected the pumpkin transmogrification to start taking place, he was busy getting 9 hits in 2 days. He'll continue to get lots of playing time, especially with Snider doing little to win his job back, and I can't imagine that the old Patterson won't eventually emerge. If he has figured things out at age 31, well, good for him.

92-93 - Friday, June 03 2011 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#236092) #
I'd be surprised if the Blue Jays play competitively enough to make it worth keeping Patterson past July. His trade value is climbing.
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