The hot rumour is now the Rockies zeroing in on Kolten Wong, one pick before the Jays. Wong was considered a realistic possibility for the Jays in the sandwich round a few weeks ago, but it seems he has some serious helium.

Spangenberg strikes me as a player who will be polarizing. By all accounts, he has a good hit tool and great speed, but his defense at 3B is suspect. Some believe that he's destined for 2B or LF. If he ends up in the latter, I think it would be a disappointment considering the talent on the board at #21.

I have a hard time believing that the Jays would pass on Baez for Spangenberg (as shown in Sickels' mock). Baez seems to have much better upside, and since he's only committed to a JUCO, he wouldn't demand much more over slot than Spangenberg.

mymlbdraft.com has posted their updated mock. i'm not too sure of the credibility but i'm LOVING the mock draft they have for us in the first and supplemental round.

Draft#:21 Jose Fernandez

Ht/Wt: 6-4/215 lbs
Position: RHP
School: Alonso HS (FLA)

 

Draft#:35 C.J. Cron

Ht/Wt: 6-4/230 lbs
Position: 1B
School: Utah

 

Draft#:46 Travis Harrison

Ht/Wt: 6-2/215 lbs
Position: 3B
School: Tustin HS (CA)

 

Draft#:53 Sean Gilmartin

Ht/Wt: 6-2/190 lbs
Position: LHP
School: Florida State

 

Draft#:57 Brandon Martin

Ht/Wt: 5-11/165 lbs
Position: SS
School: Santiago HS (CA)

read somewhere the yankees are on brandon martin with their first pick - also many mocks have cj cron gone b4 our supp. pick - would the jays take him with pick number 21???? - watching bautisita everyday may have them in love with power prospects like cron and harrison??????

I just don't see the Jays drafting a defensively challenged player like Cron with their top 2 picks - I could see Tampa with a need - I hope a team drafts Wong early so that he's not an option for the Jays at 21. I think a conservative college pitcher with the 21st pick and then more upside talent, likely pitching as that's the strength of this draft. I should say I'm okay with Wong at 35 but not at 21.

With power pitching the strength of this draft, I'm guessing that the Jays add a bunch of power pitchers in the 1st and supp rounds and then take some toolsy position players looking for over slot deals in the later rounds and sign them. Just guessing and of course it may be Wong.

Most mocks seem to assume that teams ahead of the Jays will ignore bonus demands and draft based on talent.  That rarely seems to happen and considering there are so many unprotected picks ahead of the Jays, I think one, or probably two or three players who have been projected to go top 15 will fall to 21.  Of course, maybe teams will think that the impending CBA and the potential for strict slotting will push players off their bonus demands.  

 

I still think the former will occur and the Jays might be able to draft one of the top players in the draft. 

Don't know much about this site or the player they have projected for the Jays in their mock but MLB Bonus Baby has the jays taking:

"21-Toronto Blue Jays-Blake Swihart-C-HS (NM)

Toronto has a ton of early picks and I think they will spend what they need to get the best players, and in this case it is Swihart who reportedly has one of the highest price tags in this draft. If Toronto doesn't think they can sign him they could look at Baez or a HS pitcher like-Joe Ross, Henry Owens, Robert Stephenson, Dillon Howard or Jose Fernandez."

Now there is a nice swing from both sides of the plate.  I like Swihart a lot more than Josh Bell.

C-Span sounds intriguing.

The count so far:

Number of mock drafts reported: 5

Number of different players reportedly to be selected: 5

Most times a player is tabbed for the Jays first pick: 1 (5 way tie) 

I believe this will become the Jays best draft so far in their history - and that's sayin' something since the 2010 Draft looks WOW.

I've read every Draft Blog since they got going in earnest last winter - including BA's 200 Top Draft Prospects (which is a super read) and I've seen at least 85 to 90 guys who look really good. We've the 21st, 35th, 46th, 53rd, 57th, 74th and 78th overall picks. We will get a serious haul.

In addition, remember last year how we got Thon, Taylor, and went after Bryant and other high value guys later in the draft - well we'll do that this year too. With the draft rules set to change for 2012 (when the new contract is negotiated) I expect AA to be even MORE AGGRESSIVE this year.

I'm predicting the Jays go over $20,000,000.00 in bonus payments in this draft. The Jays will set a new MLB record with our spending this draft. With the Rios and Wells contracts gone, and this years payroll so low, and the draft rules being changed for next year - I see the perfect storm for AA to spend like a drunken sailor.

I've always thought highly of drunken sailors - 'specially if they're drinking scotch - single malt - natch.

Mylegacy,

I agree, 20mil is not out of the question, and I could see him going even higher. This really has the potential to lay the foundation for a long, long time at the MLB level - spend the money now, then have the prospects to make big trades in 2-3 years.

It's looking like the best possible talent at 21 will be a HS Arm, and I like Robert Stephenson and Henry Owens. I like the fact they both have power arms, a good work ethic and a clean delivery. It's looking like they're will be a lot of athletes both from the college and HS ranks in the supplemental like Nimmo, Bradley, Goodwin, etc. and that's where we should stock up on some more position players.

And the streak continues with The Bleacher Report forecasting the Jays taking Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley (S.C.) HS.

I've seen law, and maybe another or two, say the Jays would spend big AFTER the first round. What's the logic behind not spending big in the first if necessary as well?

read somewhere the yankees are on brandon martin with their first pick

The Yankees' first pick is in the second round.

Yanks 1st pick should be a supplemental for Vasquez.

Question - I't's been often mentioned this is the deepest draft in years. (I've heard deepest in a decade).  Does anyone know a comp year as far as depth is concerned? I know 2005 had quite a few superior 1st round talents, but beyond that, there did not seem to be any more hits than any other draft year. 

Frank Piliere's 2nd Mock:

http://milb.scout.com/2/1076134.html

21. Blue Jays - Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill H.S. (Tenn.)
The Blue Jays are considering all options, but seem to be hoping to get their hands on one of the elite high school arms. They see Norris as belonging in that category.

And we have a match, finally, unless Frankie just followed Baseball America.

I think I've seen Norris "mocked" to us more than any other.

Outside of the first 15 or 20 picks, and sometimes even within those picks, the mock drafts (while fun to contemplate) don't seem to be worth a whole lot. Last year many of the first and supplemental round picks diverged sharply from the expert predictions. Lots of players went much higher or lower than anticipated (some surprising, if not shocking, picks included Barrett Loux at #6 overall, Hayden Simpson at #16, and Cito Culver at #32).

Norris sounds to me like Sanchez, a guy they'll target with their 2nd pick.

To be fair to BA their final mock last year had the Jays taking DeShields Jr. (who went ahead of their pick) but also listed McGuire as a fallback option.

Norris sounds to me like Sanchez, a guy they'll target with their 2nd pick.

I dont really see the comparison.  Norris entered the year as a ~Top 10 prospect and isn't overly likely to get to #35 (although I believe Law had him falling out of the 1st in his last mock).  Sanchez was a kid that never really had more than late-first round buzz...we clearly liked him a lot and he was probably undervalued a bit, but there was realistic likelihood that he was going to be there at our 2nd pick.

I wasn't comparing the players, I was comparing their situation as HS arms. With the plethora of solid college talent available I wouldn't be surprised to see TOR follow last year's route, drafting a more polished pitcher first and then using the compensation picks to focus on the prep arms and players like the Bells and Bradleys who may have dropped due to signability. None of the picks this year are unprotected (like Syndergaard's) so they can be riskier.

It's obviously difficult to predict what the Jays will do. The only scenarios I consider unlikely for the first round are a catcher or one-tool hitter, yet both of those possibilities have been projected, too. I'd be thrilled if Mahtook somehow fell to them.

My best guess is that the Jays will do what they have done in recent years, a safe high-floor college pitcher in the first round (I like Oregon lefty Tyler Anderson, great sinking fastball command and a killer change-up) followed by HS arms and multi-tool athletes with their supplemental picks. Using a supplemental pick on Purke would be an interesting gamble.

I wasn't comparing the players, I was comparing their situation as HS arms. With the plethora of solid college talent available I wouldn't be surprised to see TOR follow last year's route, drafting a more polished pitcher first and then using the compensation picks to focus on the prep arms and players like the Bells and Bradleys who may have dropped due to signability.

1) I think people are overestimating the McGuire pick as being about "taking a safe college player", and underestimating the fact that the BPA options available at #11 last year were all mostly college kids.  I'm sure McGuire being polished made them feel good about being able to make more projection picks later, but the reality is that you can easily argue that McGuire was a pure BPA pick given how that draft unfolded and who was available.  The difference in this year's draft is that it is very likely that the BPA at #21 will be a HS kid, and likely one of the top HS pitchers.  There is an off chance that one of the "top" college pitchers is there, but there is a higher probability that one of the bigger HS kids is sitting there.  Read what Piliere wrote up for that pick; it strongly hints that the Jays "hope" that one of the top HS pitchers will be there, and also that they believe that Norris is one of them.  If they really like Norris then it is way more likely that they want him at #21 than a pipe-dream that they are banking on him being there at #35.

2) Bradley isn't falling to the supplemental round, and if Bell drops that far it will be because his "request" is legit and it will take ~$4+ Million to sign him.  Guys like Callis dont seem to think that Bell is bluffing (his mom works at Texas and academics are very important), thus even if he got there I'm not sure we'd be looking at him given how many picks we have and how we seem to like to spread a bunch of over-slot deals over a large quantity of kids versus making a huge way over-slot signing with one guy.

Last year you told me there's no way Ranaudo would fall out of the first round. Things don't always go the way you expect.

Speaking of wise words, I would like to give a tip of the hat to Marc Hulet for this gem in last year's pre-draft thread:

"Because of my disinterest in the picks in and around No. 11, I'd rather see the Jays go with a college arm like Deck McGuire, Asher Wojciechowski or Alex Wimmers and then spend a little extra money in the supp and second rounds to pick up some higher ceiling players."

Hit the nail pretty well on the head, sir.

Needless to say, I'm pretty happy with how the 2010 draft worked out. I guess the Jays scouting department and I are on the same wave length ;)

There is so much fluidity to the 2011 draft at this point, especially with a team picking in the 20s that there is really no point in getting too worked up about things. With that said, I will again throw out some names that I have interest in (with the Jays first seven or so picks) and that appear in Baseball America's Top 200 draft prospects:

I'm trying to get on board with Daniel Norris but I don't like his arm action. He has good arm speed but a low arm slot and he kind of short arms the ball. From my perspective, it doesn't look fluid or low-stress at all. I'd like a lot more follow through in hopes of putting less strain on the shoulder and/or elbow.

I am interested in: Javier Baez, CJ Cron,  Joe Ross, Jorge Lopez, Dwight Smith Jr, Dante Bichette Jr, Cam Gallagher, Matt Dean, Bryan Brickhouse, Michael Kelly, Tyler Goeddel, Matt Andriese. Bigger fan than most of Smith Jr. Perhaps the same can be said for Dean and Goeddel, as well.

"I am interested in: Javier Baez, CJ Cron, Joe Ross, Jorge Lopez, Dwight Smith Jr, Dante Bichette Jr..."

I guess that means Baez is related to Danys, Ross is related to Cody and Lopez is related to Aurelio...Personally I have my eye on Frank Robinson the 3rd.

Jonathan Mayo at MLB dot com has a new mock in which he forcasts Levi Michael:

21. Toronto Blue Jays: Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
College middle infielders are in short supply and even if the Jays think Michael will eventually be moved to second base, they might consider taking him here.

He sounds like somebody JP would have been interested in, not AA.

Keith Law has an interesting draft chat (insider only) on ESPN. He said he thinks the Jays are unlikely to draft Norris. He also comments that the Jays took Buchholz off their 2005 draft board because of perceived makeup issues (not that it would have made a difference, as he was a supplemental round pick (#42) and the Jays didn't have any supp round picks in '05. Incidentally, Boston did pretty well with their three supp round picks that year, choosing Buchholz, Lowrie and Bowden).

I`d like to see one of these college pitchers drop to the Jays in the first:  Alex Meyer, Jed Bradley, Matt Barnes, Sonny Gray.  Likely a tall order.

Failing that, I`m hoping for Taylor Guerueri (HS RHP), Javier Baez (HS IF), or Jose Fernandez (HS RHP) at this point.  There`s a decent chance all seven are gone. 

Meyer doesn't seem like too much of a stretch.

Speaking of Meyer, there's a updated mock draft on mymlbdraft.

Draft#:21
Alex Meyer
Ht/Wt: 6-9/220 lbs
Position: RHP
School: Kentucky

Draft#:35
Brandon Nimmo
Ht/Wt: 6-2/185 lbs
Position: OF
School: East HS (WYO)

Draft#:46
Andrew Chafin
Ht/Wt: 6-2/210 lbs
Position: LHP
School: Kent State

Draft#:53
Jason Esposito
Ht/Wt: 6-1/198 lbs
Position: 3B
School: Vanderbilt

Draft#:57
Kevin Comer
Ht/Wt: 6-4/200 lbs
Position: RHP
School: Seneca HS (NJ)

I'm loving this mock although at pick #21, Baez and Jose Fernandez are both still available. I would love for the Jays to snipe Fernandez although I think he'll go to the Dodgers at #16.

And Nimmo would be incredible value for a supplemental pick. I think he's going within the first 20 picks.

Is it possible that AA spends 20 Million plus on this draft?

And Boras has recently said the Josh Bell wants to go to school. I'm sure that he's hoping the Red Sox, Yankees, or Tigers take him. Does AA take Josh Bell with first pick in the Supplemental draft and give him the reported $6 million it would take to sign him? According to mlbtraderumors, that's what it would likely get to sign him.

Chafin and Comer would make Mick happy- an all eager-beaver Hall of Names draft if there ever was one.

Alex Meyer is a hard-throwing right-handed collegian with major control and secondary stuff issues represented by Boras.  Pass.

Keith Law's latest Mock:

#21 Toronto Blue Jays
Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina

The Jays have also been linked to Kent State's Andrew Chafin, but that could be a sandwich-round option for them instead. They're also poised to take any top college prospect who falls here unexpectedly, but look for them to go college first and high school later.


Jim Callis & Kevin Goldstein are also due to release new mock's today.

Law on the radio with Bobcat also mentions Jed Bradley, Andrew Chafin & Alex Meyer as being in the Jays mix, noting again that the Jays will likely take a college / easy sign guy 1st before rolling the dice later on.  He notes that Meyer would require more $. 

For everyone calling for Fernandez... check out his video at MLB.com. Dude - who is still a teenager - already has a very soft frame and could look like Bartolo Colon in short order.

Don't mind the Chafin suggest and have modest interest in Levi Michael but still have a bad taste from Russ Adams.

Did anyone hear on Rogers Sportnet today, I think Bobcot while interviewing Kieth Law  said that the draft will be covered on Sportsnet One on Monday. Did anyone hear if the draft will be covered.

Wayne Gretzky was on HockeyCentral today and they brought up the possibility of his son Trevor beign drafted by the Blue Jays. Would certainly make for some nice press. Trevor's committed to Tony Gwynn at San Diego State.

Bob Elliot has been surprisingly absent from the draft coverage so far.

SJE:  I heard the same thing.  Sportsnet One will carry the opening round (& likely sandwich round) on Monday evening.

RE: Gretzky's kid, Wayne mentioned that his son had workouts with the Dodgers & Cubs recently. 
Keith Law was asked a question about the younger Gretzky today via twitter & he said that Wayne's kid should 'Go to college'. 

Baseball America had a roundtable 'experts'  draft w/ Jim Callis, Conor Glassey, John Manual & Nathan Rode.
Glassey picked for the Jays:

21. BLUE JAYS (Conor): This is the first of five picks the Blue Jays will make on the first night of the draft. Some of the top guys left on my board include Alex Meyer, Tyler Anderson, Mikie Mahtook and Levi Michael. In the end, though, I'm going to go with Robert Stephenson, who has been up to 97 mph this spring.

Jim Callis' latest mock (free version):
21. BLUE JAYS: Levi Michael, ss, North Carolina.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has a new mock:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14139

21. Toronto Blue Jays: Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech. Toronto plays it notoriously close to the vest, but rumors have them looking at pitching, and Bradley is just a guy who I have to get off the board.

Draft live on Sportsnet One at 6pm ET

MLB.com will also - as always - have Day 1 of the draft live for those who don't pay the premium bucks for acces to Sports Net 1.

Kevin Goldstein posted a quasi-mock draft with notes about what he is hearing about each club. Here is his Toronto note:

Toronto plays it notoriously close to the vest, but rumors have them looking at pitching, and Bradley is just a guy who I have to get off the board.

My translation of that is no-one knows what way the Jays are leaning and the experts are all guessing.

@jimcallisBA Jim Callis If Cole goes 1, think that's right except Bauer to #Royals at 5. @exposfan1998: 1. Cole 2. Rendon 3 Hultzen 4. Bundy 5. Starling #mlbdraft 4 hours ago via HootSuite

FALLING STARS

Taylor Guerrieri, Spring Valley HS, SC RHP

“Second week on the list, rumors are swirling about the gifted RHP.  He has top- 10 talent and one team may gamble early (NY Mets).  The newly rumored team to be considering Guerrieri could be the Blue Jays at #21.  His potential is there but many teams are still concerned with the lack of communication from his camp and many of his questionable off-field decisions.  Only reason why he made this list two weeks in a row is because for someone who has frontline starter written all over him, he should be going in the top 5-7 picks.”

What we are hearing:  Players that Teams are Considering

Toronto Blue Jays

Levi Michael, Blake Swihart, Matt Skole, Trevor Gretzky, Nick Tropeano, Chris Marlowe

Frank Piliere's 3rd mock has the Jays selecting....yep, you guesed it:

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1077124.html

LEVI MICHAEL, SS NORTH CAROLINA.
ANALYSIS: The Blue Jays are considering all options. They may consider a prep arm like Norris, or one of the signability question marks. Ultimately I expect them to go with a bat. That bat could even be Josh Bell.

I must be missing something with Levi Michael, but the distance between Kolten Wong and him is huge. If Wong was projected to be a supplemental, I would have expected that Michael would have been a late 2nd rounder or early 3rd. Pedroia was chosen in the late 2nd round and he was obviously a significantly better prospect.

I must be missing something with Kolten Wong, because everyone has been going gaga over a one-tool player with mediocre stats in the WAC. When you are drafting a middle infielder you probably don't want to hear that he has both below-average speed and arm, the latter preventing a shift back to C.

"We've done studies where if you get one solid everyday big-leaguer out of a draft and a handful of extra guys, you've done a good job. So having extra picks up high is extremely valuable."

So by that measure 2007 is still looking pretty good:
JPA
Cecil (one assumes)
Zep
And Mills, McDade, Farina and Jackson looking good in the system.