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Nobody particularly distinguished themselves on the farm on Monday night. That's a good thing - there were just a lot of hitters who had equally impressive performances. And New Hampshire staged an amazing comeback.


Tacoma 8 at Las Vegas 5

Here's what you want to know: Brett Lawrie: 2-4, double, walk. Okay, now that we've got that out of the way, we can recap the game.

Las Vegas scored an extremely un-Las Vegas-like five runs, and predictably, it wasn't enough. The team put lots of men on base, as usual, but couldn't get (enough) hits when they needed them, going 5-20 with runners in scoring position. Adam Loewen had three hits including a double, while David Cooper singled, doubled and walked twice.

Ace Brad Mills was on the hill, and he pitched well despite giving up four runs in six innings - he was unlucky that the hits were bunched together, as he only allowed eight base-runners and struck out eight. Winston Abreu allowed three runs in the ninth to put this one out of reach.

New Britain 6 at New Hampshire 7

Callix Crabbe walks.
Darin Mastroianni walks.
Adeiny Hechavarria singles on the infield. Bases loaded.
Anthony Gose reaches on an error. Two runs in.
Mike McDade singles. Another run in.
Anthony Gose induces another error, moving up on a botched pickoff attempt.
Moises Sierra walks. Bases loaded again.
Travis d'Arnaud strikes out. First out.
Yan Gomes walks. Another run in.
Mark Sobolewski singles. The fifth run of the bottom of the ninth scores, and New Hampshire comes all the way back from 6-2 to win. Sobolewski, by the way, was the ninth batter of the inning, so everyone got in on the action. That must have been a great one for the players.

Gose hit a homer earlier in the game, his fourth, and Sierra had a great day, reaching base four times. Rey Gonzalez was roughed up, allowing six runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Dunedin - scheduled off-day

Lansing 11 at Bowling Green 7

Man, do the affiliates ever know how to score this year. Six Nuts had multi-hit games, seven drove in runs, and eight scored runs. Where to begin? Maybe I'll just let you go look at the offense yourself, and tell you that Drew Hutchison had a solid outing, allowing two earned runs in five innings with a 5/1 K/BB ratio.

Three Stars!
David Cooper, Adam Loewen, Brett Lawrie, Moises Sierra, Adeiny Hechavarria, Markus Brisker, Jonathan Jones, Lance Durham, Bryson Namba and Oliver Dominguez all had pretty indistinguishable, but great, days at the plate.



A couple weeks ago I gave the progress report on Lansing. Let's look at Dunedin.



The standout, to me, has been Justin Jackson. He's hitting for average and power, and his plate discipline has been excellent. Tons of walks, and a not-unacceptable number of strikeouts. A.J. Jimenez has also been very good, especially considering his position. Brad Glenn has been one of the best hitters in the FSL, but is old for the level and striking out a ton.



Who thought Nestor Molina would be the clear ace in a rotation with Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire and Asher Wojciechowski? Molina's 55/5 K/BB is just ridiculous, and he could be climbing some prospect charts this winter.

I'm cautiously optimistic about Jenkins. His walk rate is very good, and he's been getting a ton of ground balls, which should turn into outs at a higher rate as he ascends the ladder with better fielders. The strikeouts could use a bump, though. McGuire and Woj have pitched pretty well for their first pro season going straight to high A.
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85bluejay - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#235795) #
Tough crowd when Hech's 4 hit performance doesn't get a mention. It's been a great 2 months on the farm.
Dave Rutt - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#235796) #
It should have. Good catch, 85.
Ducey - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 06:13 AM EDT (#235797) #

Cooper doesn't get as much love as some others around here but is now at .393/.447/.593 with 15BB to 10K.  He is also hitting better against lefties.

Question:  At what point do we stick a fork in A. Hill?  He continues to struggle.

greenfrog - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#235798) #
The weird thing about Hill is that he had his best season (2009) *after* his season-ending concussion in 2008. It was only in 2010 and 2011 that his numbers started to fall off precipitously.

In any case, the team can afford to be patient for a while longer. They don't have an immediate solution at 2B (unless AA decides to trade for Reyes - which, incidentally, I think is at least worth exploring) and they have club options for Hill in 2012 and 2013. The Jays are doing well but seem unlikely to make the playoffs this year. Might as well give Hill the entire season to see whether he can regain his 2007/2009 form.
Jdog - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#235799) #
Hill projects as a type A free agent right now, so if his options are declined he could bring back 2 picks
baagcur - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#235800) #
Not sure you can project Hill into 2012 even if he does discover previous high levels in the coming months. Wells's 2010 season was almost up there with the 2002 and 2006 marks but he is now sporting an OPS+ of under 50
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#235801) #
I don't know how many times Anthony Gose has reached base this year on an error or on catcher's interference.  I am guessing that it is about 10. 
92-93 - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#235802) #

The weird thing about Hill is that he had his best season (2009) *after* his season-ending concussion in 2008.

It's not so weird when you consider the possibility that Hill was the player who had the post-concussion steroid exemption that was reported in the NYTimes' MLB drug usage study in 2009.

Forkball - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#235803) #
Don't count on draft picks for Hill.  One, in the event he was offered arbitration he would probably accept.  Two, no team is going to sign him to a contract if they're giving up a draft pick.  Orlando Hudson has had trouble getting teams to sign him to a contract the past few years and he's been a much better, and consistent, player than Hill at comparable ages.

I think it's becoming pretty clear that Hill is done.  He has an OBP in the .270s over last year and this year (742 PAs). 

John Northey - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#235805) #
Just for fun I checked for guys with 100+ PA in the minors to see who leads in OPS at various positions...

CA: d'Arnaud, Travis 22 in AA 318/411/533, Jimenez, A.J. 21 in A+ 364/398/512 - Wow.

1B/DH: Cooper, David 24 in AAA/ML 339/404/524, McDade, Mike 22 in AA 332/389/523 - very good, but not as wow as catcher

IF (2B/SS/3B): 3B Lawrie, Brett 21 in AAA 354/413/677, 2B Nolan, Kevin 23 in A-/A+ 299/406/448

OF: Wise, Dewayne 33 A+/AAA 348/400/583, Thames, Eric 24 AAA/ML 328/405/556, Loewen, Adam 27 AAA 315/377/573 (nice recover from slow start)

Justin Jackson is a weird case. As a SS for 4 years he was a poor hitter, OPS of 515/708/590/620 then this year hitting 329/423/476 between A+/AA while mainly playing RF and a fair amount of 2B. If this is for real and he can go back to 2B then we might have a replacement for Hill should he keep it up in AA. Even though this is his 5th season he is just 22 thus not too old for AA and still a prospect. Advantage of drafting high schoolers I guess.
bpoz - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#235806) #
Regarding prospects. Recently a Bauxite posted a theory that good prospects do better as they advance to the higher levels. Maybe they figured something out.

I found that interesting and IMO Mike McDade qualifies. 2007 (SS) OK, 2008 Struggled at Lansing,demoted to Auburn & did well, 2009 good at Lansing & 2010 even better at Dunedin. He is having a good 2011 at NH so far.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#235807) #

The weird thing about Hill is that he had his best season (2009) *after* his season-ending concussion in 2008.

It's not so weird when you consider the possibility that Hill was the player who had the post-concussion steroid exemption that was reported in the NYTimes' MLB drug usage study in 2009.

Hill went .291/.333/.459 at age 25 in 2007 and then .286/.330/.499 at age 27 in 2009 after missing most of 2008 due to the concussion.  It's true that his homer total went up significantly between 2007 and 2009 while his double total went down significantly.  This progression is not particularly unusual between age 25 and age 27.  There has been a precipitous decline in his batting average at age 28-29 (so far), and this is probably more unusual than the move from doubles to homers at age 27.

I confess to a definite preference for any explanation other than steroids for the changes in Hill's performance. 

Olerud363 - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#235808) #

It could be the concussion did have long term effects.  If in fact he did have an excemption for steroids and/or perhaps some other drugs (amphetamine, ADD types) in 2009, those drugs didn't so much boost his performance as bring him back to where he would of been without a concussion (with perhaps slightly more power). 

Off the meds long term effects of the concussion are showing up.  

92-93 - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#235814) #
The precipitous decline in BA is less unusual if you consider the possibility that 2009's PED related-success permanently altered his swing path, stemming from Aaron's new belief that he had become a power hitter. Let's hope this isn't the case and Hill can turn it around, but I become more "suspicious" as the days have turned to weeks and months. Of course there would be nothing wrong if Hill DID take PEDs with an exemption, so I don't want to make it seem like I'm calling Hill out. What's crazy is that while we expected some sort of a bounce back this year (and to what extent was the issue), Hill has actually gotten worse.

All that being said, TamRa has already pointed to the lack of viable FA options on the market this winter, so having Hill back on the kind of deal they gave Encarnacion doesn't appear to be the worst idea in the world, provided they can't improve the position via trade. Hill on a 1 year deal for 2012 can provide you a stopgap until you find another solution, be it Hechavarria, Jackson, or anybody else. He just needs to be kept away from the middle of the order - if he were batting 9th he'd just be another decent defensive infielder with a terrible stick.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#235818) #
Mike Wilner did an interesting pregame interview with Hill the other day. Wilner asked Hill whether he saw himself as more of a line-drive hitter (circa 2007), or as more of a power hitter (circa 2009). Hill said he was still figuring out what kind of hitter he was. Kind of surprising, I thought. It suggested to me that he may not be getting the coaching he needs - a good coach can help an athlete understand his strengths and weaknesses, and learn how to play to his strengths.

My sense is that after having some success hitting home runs, Hill started to become HR-conscious, which eventually screwed up his approach at the plate. Over the last year or so, Hill's swings have seemed high-effort to me, and his OBP has been just woeful. I hope he can turn it around, but over the last year and two months he's looked like the V-Dub of second basemen.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#235821) #
....just another decent defensive infielder with a terrible stick.....but with a pricetag of $5m (which he won't be eager to lower for us next year).

And I couldn't agree more with the move to the 9-slot. Hill is the worst hitter on the team, and I don't know why he's still treated like a golden boy as a full-time starter and middle of the order hitter, instead of having to earn his opportunities like everyone else.

2010 Jays:

1) RF Bautista: .422wOBA
2) CF Wells: .362
3) C Buck: .345
4) SS Gonzalez: .341 / Escobar: .314
5) 3B EE: .339
6) 1B Overbay: .332
7) LF Snider: .331
(Bench UT Lewis: .331)
(Bench IF JMac: .310)
8) DH Lind: .309
(Bench OF Wise: .304)
(Bench C Molina: .303)
9) 2B Hill: .291woba


2011 Jays:

1) RF Bautista: .536wOBA
(Bench C Molina: .377)
2) 1B Lind: .369
3) C Arencibia: .356
4) SS Escobar: .351
5) LF Patterson: .341
6) 3B Nix: .310
7) CF Davis: .307
(Bench OF Thames: .305)
8) DH Rivera: .302
9) 2B Hill: .281
(Bench UT EE: .277)
(Bench IF JMac: .241)

Last year he was the worst hitter on the roster, including the bench players. This year he's managed to stay ahead of two bench players, but it still the worst starter by a longshot.

Hill to the 9-hole is a must, IMO.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#235827) #
and just to add in Hill's Breakout season in 2009:

even Hill's "great" 2009 wasn't all that great.

(Bench UT Ruiz: .428wOBA / Millar .302)
1) DH Lind: .394
2) 3B Rolen: .367 / EE: .325
3) 1B Overbay: .363
4) 2B Hill: .357
5) SS Scutaro: .354
(Bench OF Bautista: .339)
6) RF Rios: .329
7) LF Snider: .327
8) CF Wells: .314
9) C Barajas: .282
(Bench IF JMac: .278)
(Bench C Chavez: .277)

his "breakout" season was about as impressive as Scutaro's.
Gerry - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#235843) #
AJ Jimenez is off the DL and should play tonight.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#235845) #
A word on Jimenez.  The man hits line drives.  The lofty batting average is not a complete fluke.
DaveB - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#235854) #

Interesting series for New Hampshire starting tonight, three games vs. Harrisburg, first place in the Western Division. Alvarez for the Fisher Cats vs. Brad Peacock, ace of the Senators with a 7-1 record, 2.13 ERA and an excellent BB/K ratio of 10/75 in 55 IP.



TamRa - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#235870) #
I don't know why he's still treated like a golden boy as a full-time starter and middle of the order hitter, instead of having to earn his opportunities like everyone else.

At this point, experience. Managers are reluctant to take a Thames - or even a Snider - and plop him into the heart of the ordr and when your teams is made up mostly of young players (the above, and JPA), top of the order guys (Esco, Davis, Patty) and retreads - chance's are you have a guy hit 5 or 6 just because he has experience (Rivera was hitting 4th and 5th before he was hitting good, for example)

I wouldn't read too much into where Hill bats.

Ultimately, if he doesn't really recover up towards the high .700s in OPS, he'll be hitting 8/9 and that will be his lot as long as he's here.

I, for one, am very skeptical he's "done."

He might be "done" until he has a change of scenery, but I doubt seriously he's a .700 hitter or less from here on out.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#235906) #
Just to beat that horse right dead....

2011:

  • J.Nix: 89pa, .296wOBA, 94.5uzr/150@2B, 6.3war/700pa
  • A.Hill: 166pa, .285wOBA, -11.9uzr/150@2B, -0.4war/700pa


  • 2010:

  • J.Nix: 363pa, .296wOBA, 3.4uzr/150@2B, 0.4war/700pa
  • A.Hill: 580pa, .291wOBA, 4.3uzr/150@2B, 1.5war/700pa


  • 2010-2011:

  • J.Nix: 452pa, .294wOBA, 6.6uzr/150@2B, 1.4war/700pa
  • A.Hill: 746pa, .289wOBA, 1.5uzr/150@2B, 1.0war/700pa


  • 2009:

  • J.Nix: 290pa, .319wOBA, 15.0uzr/150@2B, 2.4war/700pa
  • A.Hill: 734pa, .357wOBA, -4.3uzr/150@2B, 3.9war/700pa


  • 2009-2011:

  • J.Nix: 742pa, .304wOBA, 11.2uzr/150@2B, 1.8war/700pa
  • A.Hill: 1480pa, .323wOBA, -1.1uzr/150@2B, 2.5war/700pa
  • TamRa - Wednesday, June 01 2011 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#235945) #
    all one need do there is point and laugh at the idea that Jayson Nix will EVER accumulate 6.4 WAR in any 700 PA stretch.

    Nix has a CAREER .664 OPS and has accumulated little more than one seasons worth of AB at 28. Nix is a slightly better version of Mike mcCoy (with a power tool of sorts instead of speed)

    I'm a lot more open to the idea that Hill is done (using a model like, say, Felipe Lopez to illustrate the point) than I am that Nix deserves anything more than being the very last guy at the end of a mediocre bench.
    uglyone - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#235948) #
    I don't think those numbers there care whether you're open to them or not.
    TamRa - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 03:27 AM EDT (#235956) #
    ok, this is just getting silly.

    you're putting me on, aren't you?

    See how long you can put up a totally irrational argument and bait me to try to make a rational reply?

    I don't mean to be insulting to you personally, truly I don't - but I simply can't take this bit seriously anymore.
    cascando - Thursday, June 02 2011 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#235965) #

    I don't think anyone is being put on.  If you're not starting from the premise that Hill is going to rediscover his 2007 or 2009 form, it is pretty clear that he is one of the worst hitters on the team and one of the worst regulars in baseball with the bat.  On the other hand, if you believe strongly that Hill is fundamentally better than the hitter he has been for the past 14 months, you will have trouble with that view.

    The fact that Hill's OPS is a tick above .700 from some arbitrary date in April is not encouraging to me, for one.  I would chalk most of that up to small sample size effects and a few missed spots by pitchers.  The book on Hill is so clear.  Fastball away, fastball away, slider away, fastball away, and let him get himself out.  I haven't seen anyone be pitched this predictably since the late career version of Joe Carter, after Carter had completely lost the ability to identify or lay off the slider down and away.  Hill will see five pitches in an at bat outside or on the outer half and he appears to try to hit every one of them into the upper deck in LF.  When he gets out in front of it, it's a ground ball to the left side.  If he's a touch behind, it's a pop up to 2B.  The grand slam and a couple of his doubles recently have been pitches that caught a bit too much of the plate--they were still outer half, and he still pulled them.  Occasionally he'll get a pitch inside just to keep him honest.  For over a season Hill has been pitched this way consistently and he has failed to adjust.  It's very frustrating to watch as a fan, I can only imagine what the hitting coach thinks about it. 

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