Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 2011 Draft

2011 Draft - The Waiting Game

The 2011 draft is less than two weeks away and, as usual, there is no hint of who the Jays might take. The Jays first pick at number 21, then in the supplemental first round they pick at number 35 (Scott Downs); 46 (John Buck); 53 (Kevin Gregg); and 57 (Miguel Olivo). The Jays also pick twice in the second round, with another Scott Downs related pick added to their regular selection.

The mock drafts are out in force.

Baseball America has listed the top 200 prospects for the draft. They also posted their first mock draft. here is what Jim Callis had to say:

Toronto is trying to get more athletic up the middle, drafting center fielder Jake Marisnick in 2009 and shortstop Dickie Joe Thon in 2010, plus signing shortstop Adeiny Hechevarria and trading for center fielder Anthony Gose last year. Unless they opt for a high school arm like Jose Fernandez (Alonso HS, Tampa) or Henry Owens (Edison HS, Huntington Beach, Calif.), they'll be looking at more middle-of-the-diamond players. The candidates include Mikie Mahtook, shortstops Javier Baez (Arlington Country Day HS, Jacksonville) and Levi Michael (North Carolina), and second baseman Kolten Wong (Hawaii). If they're sold that Baez will stick at shortstop, he might be the choice, but I'll go with Mikie Mahtook's solid all-around tools here.

I agree that the Jays have been trying to get more athletic although last years first pick was a college pitcher. I don't think Wong will be a first round pick, if the Jays want him he could be there in the supplemental round.

Keith Law ranks Josh Bell, a switch hitting outfielder/first baseman, as the 21st ranked prospect. He doesn't say the Jays will pick him. Bell is a top ranked hitter but he is not athletic.

I am sure there are a lot of other mock drafts out there, what have you read?

Posted by Gerry on Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 10:12 AM EDT.

2011 Draft - The Waiting Game | 51 comments | Create New Account

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Mike Green - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#235518) #

Like Kevin Ahrens when he was drafted, Josh Bell's swing looks good from the right side but not from the left (to my obviously very amateurish eyes). He doesn't run well enough to stick in centerfield. He could bloom into a power-hitting corner outfielder, but I am not excited.

Kolten Wong may indeed be available in the supplemental round, but I like him a lot.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#235523) #

CJ Cron is one who intrigues me. He may have 80 power and also can hit for average. He will be a first baseban or DH, but there is enough WOW in the bat that I'd think carefully before passing with our second pick. He might go in the back end of the first, but I'm not high on him at #21.

Bell and Baez are two intriguing bats at 21.

There will be a lot of high school pitchers who can throw mid nighties available in the Supplemental round.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#235525) #

If they continue to look for that college pitcher for their first rounder, these names are ones to watch (BA ranking in brackets):

Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech (14)
Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky (18)
John Stilson, RHP, Texas A&M (23)
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon (24)
Matt Purke, LHP, Texas Christian (32)*

*Purke was a preseason Top 5 pick but has had shoulder trouble and his first work in a while was not impressive from a velocity perspective. I think he has a chance to nosedive in this draft.

aaforpm - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#235527) #

Jays seem to like large pitchers with clean deliveries and athletes who can play down the middle (or maybe third which is also tough to fill). I don't see them wasting a high pick on a 1B or LF, not because we don't need one right now, but simply because they're much easier to come by for any team - so probably not Joshua Bell and definitely not Cron

If Archie Bradley slips to us because of bonus demands I see AA taking him. Otherwise I'd be very happy with Wong who looks like he could hit 300+ and provide 50+ extra base hits from second base. I also don't think Wong slips to the supplemental round. I'm not sure how I feel about Javier Baez but he looks like someone that the Jays may be interested in. I don't think Jackie Bradley Jr has the tools to intrigue AA but if he profiles to have at least very good gap power then who knows.

In the supplemental I see the Jays going after pitchers Tyler Beede, Josh Osich, Dillon Howard, Joe Ross, CF Brian Goodwin, maybe even shortstop Trevor Story.

After the supplemental I would love to see the Jays take a risk on a high school bat like Williams Jerez or Dante Bichette Jr

Forkball - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#235529) #

Under AA the Jays have taken college pitchers with their last two first round picks, when they had extra picks in each draft just like this one. I'd conclude that means they like a little higher certainty with their first pick, and then can take more chances after that point.

So with the first round pick I'd expect it to be a college player unless there's a HS player that is clearly the best choice.

BA has Tyler Anderson going to the Dodgers (which up to this point seems high), but I could see the Jays taking him if he made it to #21. He sounds like a Jays pitcher (plus change-up). Mahtook is a possibility, but a good college hitter with some pop that can play CF doesn't sound like someone that will make it to the Jays pick. I could see Spangenberg being taken as well.

But I'd probably be most excited to see Josh Bell if he made it that far. BA noted the emphasis on up the middle players, but that could also mean that the Jays don't have to emphasize that as much now.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#235530) #

I just read BA's write-up on Anderson and Stilson and they do sound like Jays-type pitchers. They're ranked 23 and 24 by BA so could definitely be in play. They both feature great changeups, sit low-90's with the heat and spin breaking balls. Their drawbacks are funky deliveries, but they still "fill the zone with stikes".

As for Cron, the Jays like high-upside. It usually means up the middle athletes, but could definitely mean 80 power at first base. That's rarified air.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#235531) #

ayj, I normally don't pick on typos, but this is wonderful:

high school pitchers who can throw mid nighties

Does this mean they only throw best at the witching hour? Or that they need to wear a negligee under their uniforms, a la Nuke LaLoosh? Or what? :-)

John Northey - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#235532) #

Just for fun I checked #21 overall picks via baseball-reference.

The most recent hitter drafted 21st to make the majors is familiar - J. P. Arencibia (2007) while 2008 was a pitcher who reached, Ryan Perry (4.12 ERA over 125 games in relief so far).

46 guys have been drafted 21st overall. Of those 30 reached the majors. 2 cracked 20 for lifetime WAR (Rick Sutcliffe, Jason Varitek), another 3 cracked 10 (Gorman Thomas, Jake Westbrook, Todd Worrell). Notable ex-Jays include Jim Acker, John Cerutti (both in the 4-6 range).

So a 2 in 46 shot at a star, 5 in 46 at a strong player, while 19 out of 46 were positive WAR's (vs 16 never reaching the majors so far).

MatO - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#235534) #

"fill the zone with stikes".

It's rare to find anyone this proficient in poetry these days never mind a couple of pitchers being drafted. I'll put it down to a college education.

(Sorry AYJ)

Kelekin - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#235536) #

I've watched numerous videos of Bell hitting and I just feel that he is going to be this year's Heyward. Everyone says he has a special bat - and when you have a special bat, sometimes you get passed up for not having enough other exciting tools (e.g. Thames' consideration as a "prospect").

Kolten Wong is another guy who has hit well in college, and was the Cape Cod League MVP. He can use a wooden bat, plain and simple. If we're lucky enough for him to fall to us at #35 then I think you have to take him, but I actually see Tampa taking him.

Mahtook seems like a solid player, with a .496 OBP (only two points higher than Wong) and a solid .709 SLG. Let alone the 29 Stolen Bases.

Oh, and while these may not be top flight talents according to scouts, you can't help but be amused by some of the statistical blips:

- Marquis Riley (Jr) has 31 BB to 4 K. Yes, 4 K in 238 PA. In MVP Baseball 05, he would have 99 contact.

And for all this talk of Gerrit Cole - he isn't even in the Top 50 in Division I in K/9.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#235538) #

Looks like remedial typing classes for me.

85bluejay - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#235539) #

Very Excited about this draft - will be interesting as AA has said he will be less involved this year as his full team is in place - i liked last years draft very much, though I was a little disappointed at some of the picks that got away - I realize that this happens every year but I would have liked to see the Jays spend an extra 5-8 mil and get some of Ehlers/Cotto/Marlowe/Westlake/Bryant etc. rather than spend money on Dotel/Rauch. As I've said before I'd rather the Jays spend more on the Draft/IFA even if it means less on the ML team and FA.

Cron and Bell defensive liabilities probably make them unlikely for the Jays - IMO, 21 is too high for Wong - hope they don't do it for need - I think the jays will go more conservative with the 1st pick and then more upside with later picks - of course, Tampa and Boston have a # of extra picks, so it will intense competition in the AL east again. Anyways, please spend more to sign as many picks as possible.

92-93 - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#235542) #

I'm always intrigued by the top talents that fall due to injury. Last year the Blue Jays passed on Anthony Ranaudo 3 times because they were too cheap to give him the 2.55m he got from Boston. They passed on Porcello twice for the same reason. This shouldn't happen again with Purke, provided his medical reports have a positive longterm outlook.

85bluejay - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#235544) #

IMO, the Jays passed on Ranaudo (as I expected them to do, unfortunately) more because of the Boras connection after the Paxton debacle the previous year with Boras/Beeston - after all, they give McGuire about 2.2 mil. I hope the Jays don't avoid Boras clients again.

Forkball - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#235545) #

I think in the last couple years you can't say the Jays were cheap in the draft. In the JP days when they pretty strictly adhered to slot, yes, but they've been going well over slot for many players and were among the highest spending teams. Not to mention the money they gave Hech and offered to Chapman.

Porcello might be an instance of being cheap. I doubt not taking Ranaudo was, not that we'll ever really get the real story (although one would guess it was injury related). Let's not forget that the Red Sox passed on him twice too, not to mention every other team at least once.

But I agree in general that there comes a point in the draft where taking a risk on an player with an injury history or signability issues are worthwhile.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#235546) #

Keith Law does indeed have Josh Bell going to the Jays at 21, citing their desire to draft the top talent available.

sam - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#235547) #

Josh Bell reminds me a lot of Cliff Floyd

John Northey - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#235548) #

Thought I'd check Paxton. Signed with Seattle after last years draft (4th round) and had 4 starts last year, 5 this year. This year he is doing well, 2.22 ERA and 12.1 K per 9, but his walks per 9 are at 5.4 so far in A ball (Midwest League).

MatO - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#235549) #

Paxton actually signed earlier this year. I think he played in some independant league last year (the 4 starts) and since he was not playing for a college his signing deadline wasn't Aug 15(?). The bonus was reported to be $942,500. I think it was reported that the Jays offered him $1M.

Mylegacy - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#235552) #

I've read BA's Top 200 Draft Prospects and this is TRULY an excellent year. Well into the 40's, 50's even into the 80's I was finding guys that looked real good. With our 7 picks in the first 78 overall - WOW - we could almost throw darts at a list and do well.

I'd like to bet Bell - but there are quite a few I really like and unlike with McGuire (who I didn't want) and Cooper (where I REALLY wanted Josh Sale) there is no one we could pick that would get me throwing my shoes at the TV. Great news for my TV - and my long suffering wife.

TamRa - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#235553) #

they'll be looking at more middle-of-the-diamond players

*bangs head*

BEST.
PLAYER.
AVAILABLE.

Why in the name of Branch Ricky would professional baseball observers think the Jays are going to violate that rule to reach for an unworthy player?

What have they done to show themselves that stupid?

Ruling out players I think will absolutely not fall that far (in my one laypersons view) I'd guess they are looking at:

Josh Bell - my first choice
Jose Fernandez - all other things being equal, i think they will like HS pitchers more this year as they have a good selection of advanced college guys in the pipeline.
Hank Owens - Langston comparisons. I like.
Blake Swihart - particularly if the "very tough sign" label pushes him out of the first round.
Alex Meyer - at 6'9", he might prove me wrong about their leaning HS for pitchers.

I'd be disappointed if they didn't get one of those guys in the first round.

I do think they will stay away from Dillon Howard as a Boras client and I'm fine with that, especially this year.

With the sandwich picks, Swihart if he falls would be obvious; Cron would be a good pick with one of these; Nick Delmonico intrigues me (although it might be because I'm in love with his name!)

Maybe Jackie Bradley if they want to take advantage of the injury drop like they did on a larger scale with Thames.

metafour - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#235554) #

BA has Tyler Anderson going to the Dodgers (which up to this point seems high), but I could see the Jays taking him if he made it to #21. He sounds like a Jays pitcher (plus change-up).

Strongly disagree. Anderson is a guy who features only "good" stuff and is more of a pitchability type. That sounds like the type of pitcher we liked under the Ricciardi regime; not under this one which favors more traditional power pitchers. Yeah; we like to teach changeups as an organization, but that doesn't mean we'll draft guys with limited stuff just because they have good changeups.

scottt - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#235556) #

BEST.
PLAYER.
AVAILABLE.

The rankings are highly debatable. We can't even predict what guys like Snider or Alex Rios will do year after year. Assuming you assign a ranking from 0 to 100 to each draftee, what's the error bar on that? 1%? 5%? There's obviously room to pick between several players of similar rankings.

For example, I'd be surprised if the Jays picked several catchers in the first rounds.

Mylegacy - Thursday, May 26 2011 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#235558) #

TamRa's first two: Bell (also my first) and Fernandez (also my second) an intriguing HS arm, have been mentioned in the Jay's area of the Draft since last fall really. That's interesting because usually guys that are listed in any specific area have either been passed by lots of "helium" guys or have dropped as they've regressed.

When you look at how interesting AA's picks were in later rounds last - I've a GREAT feeling that we might just get a spectacular draft this year - and spectacular not only in our first 7 picks but into the early teen rounds as well. Hope AA's brought his piggy bank!

hypobole - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#235563) #

As someone pointed out KLaw has us taking Bell in his first mock. But it's KLaw's comments that, if accurate, are most exciting:

"Toronto seems primed to spend a ton of money in this draft, not just because they have extra picks but because they intend to take the best players available and pay them wherever possible."

Kelekin - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 03:55 AM EDT (#235565) #

I'm glad a lot of people are in on Bell now (I know I've had a very obvious mancrush on the threads here for the past month or so). The only two players I'd consider taking at #21 if they dropped that far would be Archie Bradley or Mikie Mahtook...but definitely not Jackie Bradley.

It's too bad Kolten Wong won't fall out of the first round, I'd love to get him in the supplementals. Also, interesting player for the supplemental or 2nd round is Dan Vogelbach. He isn't high due to the fact he is seen as a bad body player, but he apparently has tremendous power and great makeup. He also lost a great deal of weight last off-season (and actually lost it, not the Prince Fielder way).

aaforpm - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#235571) #

BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE vs middle of the diamond players

I agree in the best player available strategy but one of the things that gets taken into consideration in determining who the best players are is defensive value and a guy who is going to end up at 1B does not have much defensive value so he is going to have to be a LOT better at the plate than a shortstop, catcher or center fielder in order to be the better all around player.

If you find a a good fielding shortstop that profiles at 280/350/400 you probably take him ahead of a good fielding 1B that profiles at 310/380/430 (assuming that you believe that the likelihood for each player reaching that level is the same), because the replacement level player for the shortstop is a much steeper drop off than for the first baseman

I am willing to bet any money that the Jays do not draft a first baseman before the second round. Josh Bell is the only LF I could see them drafting that early because he really does look like a monster at the plate and because a guy that can play LF seems to be a bit more valuable than a guy you have to stick at 1B

finch - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#235573) #

John Sickels at Minorleagueball.com recently did a Mock Draft of the First Round and the Supplemental Draft...here's what he had the Jays choosing:

Javier Baez, INF, Florida HS
Jackie Bradley Jr, OF, South Carolina
Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River CC
Adam Conley, LHP, Washington State
Dillon Maples, RHP, North Carolina HS

Would one be happy with that initial haul?

finch - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#235574) #

mymlbdraft.com has the Jays choosing:

Draft#:21
Josh Bell
Ht/Wt: 6-3/185 lbs
Position: OF
School: Jesuit College Prep

Draft#:35
C.J. Cron
Ht/Wt: 6-4/230 lbs
Position: 1B
School: Utah

Draft#:46
Grayson Garvin
Ht/Wt: 6-6/220 lbs
Position: LHP
School: Vanderbilt

Draft#:53
Charles Tilson
Ht/Wt: 6-0/175 lbs
Position: OF
School: New Trier HS (IL)

Draft#:57
Christian Lopes
Ht/Wt: 6-0/185 lbs
Position: SS
School: Edison HS (CA)

Is this one better?

ayjackson - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#235577) #

I don`t mind Baez and Maples where they`re drafted in Sickels` mock.

I really like going Bell and Cron with our first two if we follow it up with HS pitchers.

There are so many interesting high school arms in the 30-60 range of this draft, we should take the opportunity to load up. Really intrigued by the likes of Jorge Lopez, Dillon Maples, Michael Fullmer, Tyler Beede, Joe Ross, Kyle Crick.....there`s just so many!

Moe - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#235578) #

I know, "best player available" but I think two OF and 1B is not a great haul. This draft is said to be rich with pitching and you can always trade for an OF if you have a pitcher, so I expect the Jays to draft at least 3 pitchers in round 1 and 1s. At the end of the day, the differences between non top 10 players are small at this point and it's a bit of a crap-shot, so you might as well draft premium positions rather than future DHs. Having said that, Bell/Cron/Garvin sounds reasonable.

Paul D - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#235580) #

This draft is said to be rich with pitching and you can always trade for an OF if you have a pitcher

Is this true? Seems to me that teams are reluctant to make straight up trade of MLB position players for MLB pitchers. Or are you talking about trades like the Marcum-Lawrie trade?

Moe - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#235581) #

Btw, MLBBonusBaby.com has the Jays pick Daniel Norris, LHP

"The Jays are looking for upside in this spot, which to me, makes Norris or Josh Bell the likely pick here. I'll predict that they go with Norris, as the Jays have shown more tendency to go for pitching than non-premium position players."

And over at minorleagueball Sickels looks at some middle infielders: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/5/26/2191929/2011-baseball-draft-notes-five-middle-infielders

ayjackson - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#235582) #

Respectfully Moe, I have to disagree. If we came away from our first five picks with Bell, Cron and three of those HS pitchers I mentioned, it would be a terrific haul. Bell and Cron are two of the best bats in the draft and would represent great value at those spots. I know people are down on Cron because he`s a 1B/DH, and I could be pursuaded away from him, but somebody he has significant upside even for the position. We haven`t had a big bat at first since Delgado, despite how "easy" it is to acquire them.

ayjackson - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#235583) #

Wouldn`t complain about Norris.

Moe - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#235585) #

Respectfully Moe, I have to disagree. If we came away from our first five picks with Bell, Cron and three of those HS pitchers I mentioned, it would be a terrific haul.

I did say I'm fine with Bell and Cron. I just don't see the Jays also take another OF.

Also, there are two separate questions: 1. Do Jays take Bell and Cron and 2. Would I be happy with it. As you said, Bell/Cron plus three pitchers could be a nice haul depending on the pitchers and who else is available. My only concern (which is why I'm "fine" and not "excited") is that both sound like very similar players: big bat, limited defensive value. And while I am for best player available, I find it hard to believe that TWO bat only players are the best available at that slot.

subculture - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#235596) #

No Boras clients would be my preference.

My personal, unproven reasons why the Jays should avoid his clients:

- strong likelihood that Jays would have to overpay to sign him
- strong likelihood that negotiations will go to the last minute, or no deal will be reached
- strong likelihood that Boras will meddle with how Jays treat his clients in the minors
- strong likelihood that Boras will meddle with how Jays treat his clients in the majors
- almost certain likelihood that if the player performs to expectations, the Jays will lose this player via free agency (to the Yanks, Sox or other team)
- there was a short article published a few months ago (sorry can't remember where) but basically evaluating the average value that Bora's clients contributed per dollar to their respective teams. Esentially teams get poor value (as a whole) from signing Boras clients when rating their productivity per dollar, compared to the other major agents/agencies.
- even compared to other large deals, Boras clients deals seem to backfire on their clients more often.
- a player that has Boras as their agent prioritizes $$ over winning and team loyalty (again, just my perception)

stevieboy22 - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#235597) #

aaforpm - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#235604) #

I'm guessing that it may be a little bit harder to predict a hitter's success than a pitcher's. You can evaluate a pitcher in full by looking at his stuff, control, composure (although pressure will of course increase as you move up in levels). The pitcher's task is never going to change, he will face tougher hitters but you can already evaluate whether he looks like's capable of doing the things necessary to get those hitters out. With a hitter, you have to predict whether he will be able to hit high level pitching, which he won't have to do with much consistency as an amateur. Throwing 93+, painting the outside corner, repeating the delivery, and getting the breaking pitch over for a strike require the same ability regardless of who is at the plate, while regularly hitting against pitchers who can do those things is a lot different than hitting against those who cannot. I think that's why when we read scouting reports we sometimes hear things like "he has a hard time against better pitchers", "he can't identify breaking stuff" written about hitters who still put up very impressive numbers as amateurs, because scouts know that this is what they'll have to do on a regular basis to succeed in the pros even though they're rarely required to do so at the amateur level.

I'm guessing that the best scouts out there try to evaluate hitters based on how they perform against the premium amateur pitchers...but in the end that only happens so often in the amateur ranks so you deal with fairly small sample sizes. Hence it may seem riskier to bet on most hitters, especially high school guys who only get so many at bats and it's usually against inferior pitching, than pitchers

Mike Green - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#235605) #

Pitchers are, in fact, more difficult to predict in general than hitters largely because of the importance of arm health. This is true if you are trying to predict how a 17 year old pitcher will be at 22, or how a 22 year old pitcher will be at 27, or even how a 27 year old pitcher will be at 32.

aaforpm - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#235615) #

re: in "fact" more difficult to predict?

I agree that a pitcher can be riskier in terms of health, but if health is taken out of the equation I still believe that a pitcher's performance is easier to predict than a hitter's. If both are taken into consideration, I could see where one could call it a wash

......but I'm not confident enough to say that this is unequivocally a "fact"

bpoz - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#235621) #

aaforpm, what you said about pitching makes sense to me. The pitcher has to face everyone in the line up, so every game he will have tough outs. The hitter gets more non elite pitchers to hit against & then the pen may make it even easier. Also future health of pitcher vs pitcher is unpredictable, but IMO pitchers are more fragile than hitters.

Forkball, When you said AA picked 2 college pitchers with his first 2 picks, you did not mean 2009's C Jenkins did you? I suspect that JP was less in charge partway through his last year with the Jays (2009) and some unknown (to me) had a fair bit of authority. Comments anyone?

85bluejay spending another $5-8mil on the 2010 draft sounds great. It is too bad some got away.

I just don't know enough about the 2011 eligible players to contribute. But I enjoy reading everyones opinions.

My personal evaluations for 2009 Jenkins & 2010 McGuire. They seem about equal to me right now & I hope they both get AA promotions half way through the year.
If it is true that top pitching prospects absolutely will not be promoted to LV then a complicated log jam is currently under way. Which i see as a major development barrier to a pitching rich farm.

vw_fan17 - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#235626) #

I think the Jays will continue to lean towards pitching. They have shown an organizational strength in developing pitching, so it would make sense to lean that way and use your strengths to develop where you are the most efficient. You then use your surplus of talent to make trades like the Lawrie deal...

In principle, I agree. OTOH, when I see Marcum has an ERA+ of 157 this season, just a shade below Doc's 161 (or was it 162?)... It makes me impatient to see Lawrie up and contributing.

I know, I know.. Marcum's arm could fall off tomorrow.. Yet, I can't help but wonder where we'd be if we'd: kept Marcum, signed Beltre. I'd think that alone would be good for at least +2 wins so far.. No 3rd base dilemma, Hill/McDonald/McCoy/Nix could all fight it out for 2nd base..

metafour - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#235627) #

Marcum's numbers against the AL East are horrible compared to his numbers against the lesser offensive divisions in baseball...that played a lot into why he was traded. Smoke/mirrors pitchers dont work too well against the Yankees/Red Sox, and that is why if you've paid attention you'd notice Anthopolous' numerous mentions about adding power pitchers and the subsequent drafting of guys like Sanchez, Syndergaard, Woj, etc.

Marcum's numbers would be nowhere near as good if he was still on this team. His numbers against non-AL East opponents have always been very good.

Mylegacy - Friday, May 27 2011 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#235628) #

I will repeat this in later threads as we approach the draft - I predict the Jays spend over - wait for it - 20 million on this draft when all is said and done. If fixed slots come in next year you won't be able to offer 15th round guys over a million...this may be the last year the teams...and the players...have a serious chance to boogie.

In 2011 the Jays will boogie - better I suspect than your sister Kate. (For those of you too young to know the connection between "boogie" and "Kate" tough toenails.)

mendocino - Saturday, May 28 2011 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#235630) #

Baseball America has a new Mock draft with Jays taking HS LHP Daniel Norris

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2011/2611827.html

greenfrog - Saturday, May 28 2011 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#235647) #

I would be a bit surprised if the Jays took a high school pitcher, unless they really love the player. HS pitchers seem to carry a high risk of not panning out. On the other hand, one player I wish the Jays had been able to nab (they missed him by one pick in the 2009 draft) was a HS pitcher: Shelby Miller, who is posting outstanding numbers in the minors.

mendocino - Saturday, May 28 2011 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#235648) #

Baseball America tweet

conorglassey

Heard that Dallas Jesuit OF Josh Bell sent a letter to the Scouting Bureau saying he doesn't want to sign & wants to go to Texas http://twitter.com/#!/baseballamerica

Marc Hulet - Sunday, May 29 2011 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#235694) #

I've read quite a few scouting reports and watched a fair bit of video and these are the players that I like for the Jays with each pick.

21 - CJ Cron 1B COL
Utah

35 - Joe Ross RHP HS
Bishop O'Dowd HS, Oakland

46 - Matt Dean 3B HS
The Colony (Texas) HS

53 - Bryan Brickhouse RHP HS
The Woodlands (Texas) HS

57 - Michael Kelly RHP HS
West Boca Raton (Fla.) HS

OTHER: Tyler Goeddel 3B HS
St. Francis HS, Mountain View, Calif.

Dean and Brickhouse are considered tough signs, so if you can get a good read on them, I'd happily take Goeddel if he's available.

TamRa - Sunday, May 29 2011 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#235717) #

two questions in response to that:

1. you like Cron better than Bell? Or expect Bell will be gone before 21?

2. If they go elsewhere at 21, do you think Cron will be gone by the time they pick again?

Marc Hulet - Sunday, May 29 2011 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#235720) #

I was thinking Bell would be gone by then, but now with his demands, he'll probably slip out of the first round.

2011 Draft - The Waiting Game | 51 comments | Create New Account

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