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I was at the RC tonight for the Jays win, thanks to a JP Arencibia bomb.  I had excellent seats, thak you vendor, and I had a great view of BJ Upton's ninth inning shot to the wall.  From behind the plate it looked like his earlier home run, I thought it was gone and we were looking at a tied game.  It was a relief to see Davis cruising to the wall watching the ball into his glove.  Upton's hit came after Nix and Arencibia botched a foul pop-up.  Normally that would be Nix's ball but Arencibia was right under it and pulled off at the last minute.

 Ricky Romero battled through seven innings.  I say battled even though he allowed just one run because his control appeared to come and go.  He threw a lot of pitches considering how few baserunners there were.

On the other hand Wade Davis seemed to be throwing the ball down the middle and letting the Jays hit the ball.  There were a lot of first pitch swinging with a lot of fly balls to the outfielders.  Davis did give up three runs but on another night he could have been dinged for a lot more.  From memory he had just two K's.  Davis had thrown around 80 pitches by the start of the eighth.

Juan Rivera got the Jays on the board with a home run off the top of the left field wall.  Rivera had another hit and handled first base smoothly.

Eric Thames doesn't get cheated.  He looks like he has fast twith muscles, although he is not a base stealer, but he looks like he has a quick bat.

Rajai Davis had a chance to drive in  some runs earlier but grounded into a double play.  When I saw the scoreboard and saw Davis had zero home runs I thought, didn't Davis lead the club in spring training home runs?  And didn't tnight here JP Arencibia, not hit a lick in the spring?

BJ Upton had half of the Rays hits.  Evan Longoria's batting average is down to .234, there must be some concern in Tampa land.

What did you see?

 

 

 Minor Leagues

In addition to the Majors, I thought I would take a look around the minors.  The Jays minor league teams have been on a good run recently.  Here are their records and positions in their divisions as of mid-day Thursday:

Las Vegas  22-18; 4GB; 2nd place

New Hampshire 25-14; 1st place, one half game ahead

Dunedin 22-18; 6GB; 3rd place

Lansing 22-16; 1.5GB; 2nd place (in the MWL the top two teams in each half make the playoffs)

These teams have also been on fire recently.  Over the past ten games (again as at mid-day Thursday) their records from LV to Lansing are 8-2; 7-3; 8-2; 5-5; for a combined 28-12.  Not bad.

 

The most surprising of the Blue Jay teams is Dunedin.  when the rosters were formed at the start of the season Dunedin looked to have a good pitching staff but a weak offense.  The pitching has lived up to expectations, Dunedin are second in the FSL in runs allowed.  But the offense is solidly middle of the pack.  Surprisingly they are fifth in slugging, fifth in OPS, and second in home runs.  Brad Glenn has 12 homers and Jon Talley and Kevin Ahrens have five each.  AJ Jimenez and Justin Jackson are also up there in SLG, mainly due to their good batting averages.  At the start of the season Jimenez, and to a lesser extent Glenn, would have been expected to carry the offense.  The good hitting by Ahrens and Jackson are a bonus.

On the pitching side Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire and Asher Wojciechowski have pitched as well as could be expected but the starter with the best ERA, Nestor Molina, has been the biggest surprise.  Molina has the crazy 3-29 BB:K ratio.  He is the only Dunedin starter who has more K's than IP and his three walks allowed are less than any pitcher on the team who has pitched in more than two games.

 

Las Vegas has been a poor performer since the Jays moved there so their winning and competitive play must be appreciated by the locals.  The one area where Las Vegas strays from the middle of the pack is in slugging where they are 4th in the league.  With Eric Thames; Brett Lawrie; David Cooper; and now Adam Loewen, the 51's have the lumber.  It's nice when your offensive leaders are also prospects.

Brad Mills has been the standout pitcher for Las Vegas, his ERA is at 2.28 and that is good for second in the league.  Mills has only given up two home runs this season, which might be a fluke as his ground out/fly out rate has gone down.

 

New Hampshire made the playoffs last season and coming into 2011 it didn't look like their team would be as strong.  But they are fourth in the league in runs scored and fourth in runs allowed so they are doing it with a balanced approach.  Thier fourth in runs scored looks opportunistic as they are eighth in OBP; eighth in SLG; and eighth in OPS, but fourth in runs.  Mike McDade, Travis d'Arnaud and Moises Sierra are the only Fisher Cats with an OPS over 800.   Mike McDade was about the only Fisher Cat who was hot in April, in May Anthony Gose and Travis d'Arnaud have joined him.

There are some interesting numbers among the Fishers:

Moises Sierra leads the team with 31 RBI's, from 38 hits.  That's a 200 hit, 163 RBI pace.  Sierra has ten extra base hits, seven of which are home runs.  I should also note that Sierra has only 16 strikeouts in 130 at-bats, balanced against eight walks.  It seems like he is a free swinger who makes contact and, if it's good contact, the ball is gone.

Mark Sobolewski is hitting just over .200 but he is tied for third on the team with 16 RBI's.

Anthony Gose has 17 steals and has been caught only three times.

Travis d'Arnaud April OPS - 548; May OPS - 1293

Anthony Gose April OPS - 594; May OPS - 900

Among the pitchers AA repeaters Zach Stewart; Rey Gonzalez; and BJ LaMura have been good.  Newcomer Chad Beck leads the starters with a 0.93 WHIP.  Joel Carreno is the only starter with more K's than IP, he also leads the team with 22 walks issued.  In April Carreno had a 6.56 ERA; in May it's 1.93.  In April hitters had eight home runs off Carreno in 23 innings, in 18 May innings he hasn't allowed one.

 

Finally Lansing is in a playoff position thanks to the number one offense in the MWL.  Their pitching ranks eight in ERA and 14 in runs allowed thanks to all the errors.

The hitters are third in the league in OBP; eighth in SLG and fifth in OPS.  Marcus Knecht; Jake Marisnick and Michael Crouse are all in the top 20 in the MWL in offensive categories like OBP; SLG; and OPS.  And they are all 20 years old whereas many of the league leaders are 23.  Those three are also on the only Lugnuts who have hit more than one home run.  Carlos Perez started well, his OPs was 797 in april but it's down to 527 in May.

There are seven Lugnuts with over 100 at-bats.  The three above have an OPs over 800.  One hitter is in the 600's and three are in the 500's.  It is amazing that the Lugnuts have scored the most runs.  It also shows that the MWL is a pitchers league, especially in 2011 with the cold start to the season.

On the pitching side, Egan Smith, Drew Hutchison, Casey Lawrence and recently Sean Nolin have pitched well.  Daniel Webb and Misaul Diaz have ERA's over 5.5.  Hutchison and Nolin have more K's than IP.  Danny Barnes has 27 K's in 14 innings.  The Lugnuts have had a very effective bullpen, Scott Gracey, Steve Turnbull and Marcus Walden all have WHIP under 1 and Barnes is barely over it.

 

That is your look around the minors, let's hope the winning continues.

 

20 May, 2011 - Hit Em Where They Ain't | 23 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
TamRa - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#235200) #
Henderson Alvarez has been promoted to AA, and Lance Durham tweets congrats to Gracey for being promoted to Dunedin.


scottt - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#235203) #
Both Wade Davis and Joe Maddon commented that Davis had his best stuff.

"He had a really good breaking ball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "His curveball and slider were really good. I thought he pitched well, he had really good stuff tonight."

That's also the most innings he's thrown this year.

Hitters are .252 against him this year (career .253). Last night adds up to .233. He's averaging .45 BB and .45 K per inning.

The Jays won with 2 HR and Davis had only allowed 4 before last night.

Forkball - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#235205) #
Thanks for the minor league overview update - it's good to see that once in a while.... maybe at some point list out the top prospects in order with a snapshot of how their doing? 

Anthony Gose has 17 steals and has been caught only three times.

Looks like good development going on by the organization here.

Lugnut Fan - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#235209) #
Hodgie - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#235213) #
I have been really impressed by what Arencibia has brought to the offensive table so far. Despite no love from the BABIP gods (.247), he is still top 10 in wOBA and RC+ amongst MLB catchers and is showing better than advertised plate discipline and selectivity. The power is always going to be there (current .261 ISO) but if he is able to establish a consistent 10% walk rate (current 9.4%) he is going to be a very valuable asset behind the plate.

Combined with the current performances of d'Arnaud and Jiminez in AA and A+ respectively and with others like Perez and Nessy in the pipeline, the Jays have an almost embarrassing assortment of catching riches throughout the system. Here is hoping that the attrition rate is lower than that of previously hyped catching cadres.

cybercavalier - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#235231) #
I have been really impressed by what Arencibia has brought to the offensive table so far. Despite no love from the BABIP gods (.247), he is still top 10 in wOBA and RC+ amongst MLB catchers and is showing better than advertised plate discipline and selectivity. The power is always going to be there (current .261 ISO) but if he is able to establish a consistent 10% walk rate (current 9.4%) he is going to be a very valuable asset behind the plate.

I am leaning towards the conclusion by Hodgie but got several questions to ask.
1) how do wOBA and RC (and RC+ or ballpark adjusted RC) show Arencibia is good in offense ? and how do they correlate with Arencibia's better than advertised plate discipline and selectivity ?
2) Is an Isolated power of .261 a good rating, or average?
3) How is a 10% walk rate and consistency of it a proof of plate discipline and selectivity ?
ayjackson - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#235232) #
Deck McGuire is seventh on the Baseball America Hot Sheet this week, while Anthony Gose and Brett Lawrie are "in the picture".
85bluejay - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#235235) #
While the Jays catching depth is nice - I remember a few years ago Texas Rangers fans were consumed about what to do with all their catching prospects - the rangers are still looking for a ML catcher - hope ours have better luck.
uglyone - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#235237) #
ISO of .261 is excellent. walk rate of 10% isn't great but is solid....but more importantly much better than expected on JPA and one of the biggest knocks against him coming up.

wOBA and RC+ are arguably the best single stats to measure an individuals overall contribution to the game, unlike OPS is weights SLG more accurately and also includes SB/CS in the equation.

His .346woba and 121rc+ make him the 3rd best offensive catcher in the AL this year, behind only Martin and Avila (but pretty close with LA rookie Conger), since VMart and Napoli aren't used as catchers anymore. Though Martin has been crashing back down to earth since his crazy hot start.

Seems like there's a very nice crop of young catchers coming up in the AL - JPA, Avila, Santana, Conger, Wieters all look to be well above what you usually expect from a catcher offensively.
John Northey - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#235238) #
43 games in now (26.5% of the season). What are the black holes in the lineup?

2B: Hill-62 OPS+: even McDonald would be expected to do better. I suspect this is Hill's last year here unless a major turnaround occurs.

3B: Encarnacion-72 OPS+/Nix 96 OPS+/McDonald 70 OPS+ - very weak. The quicker Lawrie (335/395/607) gets here the better.

DH: Rivera-74 OPS+/Thames 182 (OK, just 7 PA). Thames has to be given a long look at this point while Rivera is close to being viewed as no more than partial payment on the $86 million Wells was owed.

LF: Snider-54 OPS+/Rivera/Patterson-113 OPS+: Patterson is doing OK at the moment, but obviously we want Snider to figure out how to make contact and become the hitter we all thought he'd be.

For 'Woohoo!' we get Escobar at 110 OPS+, JPA at 123 OPS+, Lind at 140, and Bautista at a mind numbing 269 which is one point higher than the best ML mark ever (Bonds 2002) and 14 points above the best Ruth ever did (1920 with a 255).
92-93 - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#235241) #
If Arencibia didn't play in Canada he'd be getting a heck of a lot more press for leading MLB catchers in HRs as a rookie. His offensive success will have to continue but he has a good shot at the AL ROY unless one of the SPs (Britton, Pineda, Hellickson, Drabek) can put together a full, productive season.
Gerry - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#235243) #

Over at Fangraphs Joe P was unimpressed by Davis too.

Maddon later clarified his statement, saying that Davis was better than he’d been lately. While that’s a more accurate statement, I’m not sure it’s totally accurate. Davis did walk four and allow two homers, which is not the markings of a good outing. But was it better than his previous starts?

Again, the length alone makes it better, so Maddon’s statement was not false. Yet despite allowing only three runs, the outing wasn’t all that good. Of the 32 batters he faced, nine roamed the bases, and two hit homers. It’s quite lucky, really, that he allowed only three runs on those two homers. Without a real weapon to limit the damage caused by baserunners — that is, he’s neither a strikeout nor a ground-ball guy — he can get hurt more than others when he allows a long fly. It’s also the second straight game in which he has allowed two homers. So, again, I’m wondering how much better this really was.

Really, the game was a small representation of Davis’s entire season. For the game itself, Davis had a 3.52 ERA, 7.21 FIP, 1.43 WHIP, and a 3:4 K/BB ratio. On the season he has a 3.47 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, and a 1:1 K/BB ratio. He’s been getting quality results, as the ERA shows, but his peripherals have been poor in every way. He might have good old cousin BABIP to thank for that; while his hit rate is consistent with his career mark, his BABIP is way down. From this we might expect a correction, but as with most issues BABIP, it’s a bit more complicated than that.

 

Mike Green - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#235244) #
So far, Davis has been getting fewer swinging strikes and more pop-ups in 2011.  To figure out what it all means, you would probably want a pitch f/x combined with results analysis. Velocity, movement and location changes might add significantly to the 50 innings of W, K, HR and BABIP data.
TamRa - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#235246) #
2B: Hill-62 OPS+: even McDonald would be expected to do better. I suspect this is Hill's last year here unless a major turnaround occurs.

Since his low point on April 15, his lie is(in 64 PA):

.281/.344/.368/.712

Not enough to earn $8 mil but back from the abyss a bit.

Actually, pro-rated to 162 games it's 54 doubles and 98 RBI - but no homers at all.
China fan - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#235248) #
A very strong 7 innings by Jo Jo Reyes tonight:  no runs, only 6 baserunners, no extra-base hits, and 7 strikeouts.  He is now sporting the 2nd-best ERA of any Jays starter, and he's tied for 2nd in strikeouts on the team.   Not bad for a guy that everyone wanted to dump a few weeks ago.  Of course the Astros are far from the ultimate test.   But I think he's definitely worth keeping in the rotation for a while longer.  He has a chance to be one of the better starters on this team.
China fan - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#235249) #
And the curse continues:  quite unfairly, Reyes won't get the win.  His winless streak is now at 27 games.
scottt - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#235250) #
Of course the Astros are far from the ultimate test.

Nobody told Rauch and Francisco?
BlueJayWay - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#235252) #
You know, there are two things you can count on with this team.  Every year, they

-do badly on one run games

-do badly in interleague

I cannot figure out why this should be.  It's just something that is part of the fabric of the universe, apparently.



Alex Obal - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#235253) #
The Pitcher Win would've been a nice morale boost, but who cares. Reyes was sick tonight. He got away with a few hangers in the first, and for the next six innings he might as well have been Cole Hamels. I was hoping they'd let him go the route, but who knows how that would have turned out.

Walking Michael Bourn with two out up 2-0 in the eighth was unacceptable. Going three balls was unacceptable. Going two balls was hard to accept. When Barmes singled, there was that sinking feeling...
cybercavalier - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#235255) #
And the curse continues:  quite unfairly, Reyes won't get the win.  His winless streak is now at 27 games.

Assuming there is a "curse" and the belief in it, Reyes haven't won a game since June 13, 2008 against the Angels. My solution for the curse is to find that team which Reyes has pitched most against AND got either no decision or a loss. Then trade Reyes to that team. This solution blocked the most chances for the "curse" from occuring. Of course, the "root" of the curse is still left unscathed.

LOL

I don't know but tend to think a few resemblances and differences:
1) The tweak contributing to the rise of Joey Bats is his timing and mechanics in swing and his claim by Toronto for Robinzon Diaz.
2) The tweak that was supposed to help Alex Gonzalez 2.0 is not the Jays' signing and trade to Atlanta.
3) Assuming the existence of "curse" on J.J. Reyes, is there something can be tweaked or cured?
4) Also assuming Corey Patterson is "tweakable" in fulfilling his potential as a first rounder draft pick , what is that tweak? Batting in the lineup in front of Bautista ? Or taking personal lessons from Joey Bats and the coaching staff.
4a) (I call this 4a but not number 5 because it is more or less an antithesis to 4)) Russ Adams was also a first rounder, but he ends up in retirement without much impact with the Jays. Are there lessons to be learned from Adam's story ?

Of course retrospects are easy than take action in real life to make things happen. 
TamRa - Saturday, May 21 2011 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#235257) #
I have to update the Hill line after another good games tonight.

Since April 15:

16 games
68 PA
61 AB
19 H
7 doubles
9 RBI
5 BB
10 K
5 SB

.311
.361
.426
.787

Pro rated to 160 games, that's 70 doubles and 90 RBI and 50 SB

But...it's just 1/10 of a normal season. We can only hope he maintains an OPS that high.


Thomas - Saturday, May 21 2011 @ 03:00 AM EDT (#235258) #
Going three balls was unacceptable. Going two balls was hard to accept.

The second ball was actually very good pitch selection, I thought. Rauch had thrown a change-up for a ball and a fastball for a called strike, so a curve at that point may have been a good way to alter Bourn's eye-level and, although I'm not sure how much it is the case anymore, I thought Bourn had a reputation as having a hard time with breaking pitches as a minor leaguer.

I'm less clear about why Rauch, after missing with ball two, then decided to come back with another change after missing the first time. He had thrown his last four fastballs for strikes. The larger point, about walking Bourn being completely unacceptable, is quite true. While I can see why Rauch was upset about the fourth ball, as it was in virtually the same location as the first fastball, Rauch should never have gotten to that situation in the first place.

Alex Obal - Saturday, May 21 2011 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#235270) #
Bourn can't homer, and in that situation a walk is a bad as a double. And he knows it. He is going to approach that at-bat as though the bases are loaded with two out in the bottom of the ninth inning, tied. Wasting pitches is taking an unnecessary risk.
20 May, 2011 - Hit Em Where They Ain't | 23 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.