Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

A 3-0 night on the farm - how many times do we get to say that? And no, Las Vegas wasn't rained out. I know, right!

Las Vegas A) didn't blow a lead late (almost) and B) didn't have their starting pitcher crater. It's cause for celebration! Brad Mills, the lone bright spot on the 51s staff was, well, the bright spot in this one. He went 7 innings allowing just 1 run on 6 hits and a walk, whiffing 7. On the season he's now thrown 40 innings, allowing 31 hits and 11 walks while striking out 35. If one wants to pick nits, he has been a flyball pitcher so far. Winston Abreu allowed the other 2 runs, allowing two runners to reach, on a double and a Brett Lawrie error, making both runs unearned. Danny Farquhar closed things out, getting one each of a walk, hit and strikeout.

Hitting-wise, things shook out thusly: Snider 2/4, DeWayne Wise 2/4 with a 3 run bomb, Adam Loewen 2/3 with 7 total bases, Brian Jeroloman 2/2 with a walk, Scott Podsednik 1/4, everyone else 0Fer.

New Hampshire at Reading - Postponed

Brevard County 4 at Dunedin 7

Another fine start, this one by Ryan Tepera. Tepera gave up a solitary run in the first on a double, flyout and wild pitch. Afterwards, not so much for Brevard. Tepera gave up 3 more hits and struck out 6 against no walks in going 5.2 innings. Aaron Loup got touched up for three runs on two dingers in two innings of relief, but by that point it didn't matter. Every D-Jay had a hit in this one, with Jon Talley, Ryan Goins and Kenny Wilson doubling that. Talley and Kevin Ahrens both homered as well, two and one run shots, respectively.

Lansing 12 at Fort Wayne 2

Another good (if this time not great) starting pitching performance. Daniel Webb took the bump for the 'Nuts, and got through 5.1 innings. 8 of his 16 outs were of the punch out variety, while another 7 were on the ground. Sounds good to me! He walked two and gave up 5 hits, including a home run, to account for both of Fort Wayne's 2 runs. On the offensive side of the ledger, Lansing hit safely only 9 times, but drew 9 walks to help account for their 12 runs. Highlights: Gustavo Pierre (2/5, HR, 2B, BB 3 R, 5 RBI), Michael Crouse (2/4, 2B, HR), Oli Dominguez (2/5), Lance Durham (1/3, 2 BB), Carlos Perez (0/4, 2 BB), Jake Marisnick (0/3, 2 BB). Marisnick and Durham both stole bases, while Crouse swiped a pair.

Three Stars!

Third Star! Ryan Tepera - 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Second Star! Gustavo Pierre - 2/5, HR, 2B, BB, 3 R, 5

First Star! Brad Mills - 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Posted by Anders on Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 09:26 AM EDT.

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Helpmates - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#234211) #

I'm getting increasingly jazzed about this Michael Crouse cat. I know his batting average presently isn't anything to write home about, but his walk-to-strikeout rate is fairly good at the moment, he's been flashing power and he's definitely got some wheels. He's intriguing, to say the least.

dan gordon - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#234220) #

Lawrie's recent fielding improvements have come at the same time as a big drop off in his hitting. He and Thames have both really struggled over their last 10 games. Thames hitting .214, Lawrie hitting .213 over that span, both with OPS's under .600.

Marisnick and Crouse are a combined 26 for 30 in stealing bases. Marisnick is doing some very impressive things for a kid who just turned 20 about 5 weeks ago. Crouse's batting average is excellent vs righties, .298, but, interestingly, lefties have him stumped so far - he's hitting under .100 against them (he's right handed). Probably just a small sample size thing that will rectify itself.

Gerry - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#234224) #

Michael Crouse's cat? That's in depth scouting, intangibles perhaps?

Crouse is very strong, maybe the best athlete in the Jays system.

I have video of both Marisnick and Crouse stealing second base. I will get around to posting them at the weekend, so get your stopwatches ready. I don't think crouse will be a great basestealer at higer levels, he is a big man and can't get the great jumps that the best basestealers get. But get Crouse going first to third or first to home and that would be exciting.

Marisnick will be a better stealer at higher levels is my prediction.

Gerry - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#234227) #

Someone in the Blue Jays front office said in April, when talking about Thames and Lawrie, let's see how they do when teams play the 51's for the second and third time. That's when pitchers and coaches come up with a plan of attack for each hitter. Now it's up to Thames and Lawrie to adjust.

Gerry - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#234229) #

The Fisher Cats won this afternoon. The three speedsters at the top of the lineup, Hechavarria, Gose and Mastroianni, went a combined 0-11 and scored six runs.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#234231) #

That's the weird item from the F-Cat win, Gerry. The good news is that McDade homered, doubled and walked. He's putting up the classic first baseman's OBP/Slug of .385/.525 so far this year. It's a bit BABIP-heavy, so today's power display is especially welcome.

sam - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#234232) #

For all those debating whether to purchase an MLB TV subscription or not, I highly recommend it. The MLB stream shows different commercials during innings and time outs, but they often break to commercials much later than the TV broadcast, as a result you get to here broadcasters and players when they think they're off air. It's quite fun. For example David Price had quite the profanity laced tirade in the tunnel just now when he was pulled out of the game, for a moment there I thought he was going to fight John Maddon. A favorite of mine is tuning in a little early to catch Buck Martinez's vocal warm ups prior to the broadcast. Very amusing.

cybercavalier - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#234233) #

Re Gerry: Good points on how Thames and Lawrie adjusting: AAA Vegas is supposed to be the testing ground for almost major league ready minor leaguer to test their makeups (skills, mentality etc.) against AAAA or major league cast off of a season.

IMO if the management is emphasizing on prospect development, it could flip some unused AAAA or ML veterans to another team for younger players. Cooper have been reclaiming some of his prospect status during last and this season, why not trading Wise or Jason Lane or saving their AAA roster spots for younger players like Aaron Matthews. I didn't mean to get Matthews per se, but am interested to know why. The Well paid off Jose Bautista waiver claim proves that the finding diamond in the philosophy is feasible if scouting is powerful enough.

cybercavalier - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#234234) #

"The well paid off Jose Bautista waiver claim proves that the finding diamond in the rough philosophy is feasible if scouting is powerful enough." Pressing the "submit comment" too soon.

sam - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#234236) #

We all know that the 2011 MLB First Year Draft is deep, but apparently the 2011 crop of July 2 is "the best in years." Here's to hoping the Jays spend BIG.

Kelekin - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#234237) #

Fun with numbers...or not so fun, depending...I decided to analyze the FIPs of our minor league pitchers to see who has been considered 'lucky' and 'unlucky'. Brace yourselves!

Lansing (MWL) - 65 Qualified Pitchers
Hutchison - 1.79 (3rd)
Lawrence - 2.53 (12th)
Smith - 2.73 (19th)
Webb - 3.80 (47th)

Dunedin (FSL) - 49 Qualified Pitchers
Molina - 2.07 (3rd)
Jenkins - 3.13 (19th)
Tepera - 3.84 (31st)
Wojciechowski - 4.82 (44th)
McGuire - 4.98 (46th)

New Hampshire (EL) - 47 Qualified Pitchers
Lamura - 2.00 (4th)
Gonzalez - 2.28 (6th)
Stewart - 3.49 (23rd)
Beck - 3.89 (28th)
Carreno - 7.10 (46th)

Las Vegas (PCL) - 65 Qualified Pitchers
Mills - 3.08 (7th)
MacDonald - 3.33 (13th)
Richmond - 5.77 (56th)

What can be gauged from this is that Hutchison, Mills, LaMura, Gonzalez, and Molina have been exceptional. Lawrence and Smith have been above average, with MacDonald and Jenkins also posting solid performances. This tells us that Wojciechowski and McGuire have pitched much poorer than their ERAs would indicate, and are both in the bottom 6 of the Florida State League. Carreno has been the 2nd worst in the Eastern League. MacDonald is a good example of the FIP system working - his ERA is almost double his FIP. Good ol' PCL.

Mcguire and Wojo really need to step up their game, or Hutchison could very well surpass them on the prospect charts.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#234243) #

It's early, obviously, but I wonder where Marisnick will be in next year's Jays prospect rankings. Top 10? Top 5? Top 3? He seems to have everything going for him (BA, OBP, power, defense, speed, overall athleticism), and could potentially play CF to boot. Those types of prospects are hard to find.

TamRa - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#234249) #

why not trading Wise or Jason Lane

Teams do not trade for players like that, unless they are trading other players like that. The only way you deal a Jason Lane is if, for instance, injuries create a shortage at another position -say 2B - and you swap him for the 2B version of Jason Lane.

Mcguire and Wojo really need to step up their game, or Hutchison could very well surpass them on the prospect charts.

I love me some Hutch BUT I think the first half-dozen pro starts of a guys career, particularly when they come at Hi-A, is probably not the best time to over-think their FIP.

That said, I'm not really sure what's driving the high FIP on those two except being an extremely small sample. I'm not an expert on this higher stats, obviously, but opponents hit .188 or less in 4 of Deck's six starts. I don't think he's been disappointing at all, whatever the fancy stats say.

FisherCat - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#234255) #

I remember reading an article in the Star (late March) that gave me a fresh perspective on pitching prospects and made it even more clear that the numbers will never tell the whole story to us fans. Bruce Walton described in depth how the Jays determine whether or not a guy is ready to advance to the next level.

In a nutshell...

A > AA

Repeat delivery
Locate fastball for strikes
Locate 2nd pitch for strikes
3rd pitch in development
mental approach under development

AA > AAA

Know pitching plan
Know your strengths
Control running game
Slide-step polished
Awareness of baserunners
Fields position adequately
3 pitches thrown for strikes

AAA > MLB

Confident in pitching plan
Know strengths better than anyone (what are my best pitches NOW?)
Learn teammates & opponents
Under emotional & mental control w/EVERY situation!

MatO - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#234258) #

I think McGuire improved his FIP last night.

Magpie - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#234291) #

IMO if the management is emphasizing on prospect development, it could flip some unused AAAA or ML veterans to another team for younger players. Cooper have been reclaiming some of his prospect status during last and this season, why not trading Wise or Jason Lane or saving their AAA roster spots for younger players like Aaron Matthews. I didn't mean to get Matthews per se, but am interested to know why. The Well paid off Jose Bautista waiver claim proves that the finding diamond in the philosophy is feasible if scouting is powerful enough.

I don't understand - surely the Bautista trade, of a fringe major leaguer (Bautista) for a younger player (Diaz), is one of those times when this approach didn't work out particularly well. I agree that it's often worth the risk, but this time it did blow up on the Pirates.

bpoz - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#234314) #

I guess the development personnel are going to force us to be patient regarding promotions.
C Perez is in a slump, but AJ Jimenez is not. So patience makes sense to me.

However that is not written in stone. For example Chad Beck got promoted and is doing very well at AA.

I guess you can't take out 1 game or N Molina D-Jays & E Smith Lugnuts would have Eras below 1.00, but small sample size.
I am also thinking too far ahead in that N Molina may have to be put on the 40 man at the end of this season.

sam - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#234318) #

At the moment, I don't see the need to promote any Blue Jay prospects. I mean there isn't a real rush to get these guys to the majors. It's still quite early in the season, and I'm not sold on the benefit of promoting a guy like Jimenez right now. I would think that around the all-star break these decisions should be considered. If not, the plan the organization implemented last year of promoting guys with a month left in the season seems wise.

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