Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

A big win last night for the Jays, with David Price and James Shields lined up for today and tomorrow a win in game one was important.

Jayson Nix has gone on the DL after Sean Rodriguez repositioned his lower body, Mike McCoy is back up.

Jose Bautista got the Jays to extra innings, he scored all four runs scored in the regulation nine.  Rajai Davis started his rehab last night, as did Scott Podsednik and DeWayne Wise.  It can't come too soon as Corey Patterson has returned to his being Corey Patterson and his batting average is down to .214. 



Bautista was 3-3 with two walks and he finished a single short of the cycle.  He was helped by the TBay outfielders and some umpire intervention.  He looked to be out to me on a close play at second base, before he scored the Jays first run.  But I wanted to focus on the semi-intentional walk that Joel Peralta issued to Bautista in the eighth inning.  Bautista came around to score on a double from Edwin Encarnacion.   This was a similar situation to the Yankee game on Tuesday when Mariano Rivera semi-intentionally walked J-Bau who again he scored in a key situation.  As long as teams pitch around Bautista in close and late situations, and as long as he is willing to walk, he should score some key runs.

How do you know when things are going bad?  When a team intentionally walks a player hitting .160 to get to you.  Last night Tampa walked Travis Snider to get to Juan Rivera.  The move paid off in the eighth but Rivera got his revenge with a hit in the eleventh.

Jo-Jo Reyes was better last night but he wasn't great.  In four of the seven innings the lead-off hitter reached base.  Other than Sam Fuld, who had three hits, the batting averages for the rest of the lineup were terrible, several were under .200 and  most under .250.  At the moment that Tampa lineup is not intimidating.  The difference for Reyes last night was his better fastball.

Here is Reyes pitch chart from last night, courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

Pitch Statistics
Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Swinging Strikes / % Linear Weights Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball) 90.65 93 2.16 7.93 38 28 / 73.68% 2 / 5.26% -0.7323 0.414
CH (Changeup) 82.86 83.5 5.87 4.75 7 6 / 85.71% 3 / 42.86% -0.4258 0.451
SL (Slider) 82.82 86.5 2.12 -0.91 29 19 / 65.52% 7 / 24.14% -0.6181 0.451
CU (Curveball) 75.80 76.8 -2.04 -9.16 3 1 / 33.33% 0 / 0.00% 0.0307 0.492
FT (TwoSeam Fastball) 90.03 91.6 7.06 5.27 23 17 / 73.91% 0 / 0.00% 0.9808

 

And here is Reyes chart from his last start:

Pitch Statistics
Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Swinging Strikes / % Linear Weights Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball) 90.83 92.3 2.46 11.42 24 15 / 62.50% 3 / 12.50% 0.0689 0.418
CH (Changeup) 83.63 84.4 6.26 7.29 8 4 / 50.00% 0 / 0.00% 1.8928 0.453
SL (Slider) 82.98 85.2 -1.07 0.24 18 8 / 44.44% 1 / 5.56% 1.0846 0.453
FT (TwoSeam Fastball) 90.46 92.8 8.07 8.19 44 27 / 61.36% 0 / 0.00% 0.8744 0.420

Reyes' strike percentage with his fastball was better in this start, up from the low sixties percent to the mid seventies.  Also Reyes had 12 swinging strikes yesterday versus four against Boston.  Was that related to the relevant strength of the lineups, or was it better pitching by Jo-Jo?  Time will tell.

 

Johnny Mc Channels J-Bau | 34 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Jonny German - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#233398) #
Interesting (and welcome) that Farrell went with Arencibia over Molina last night in a Reyes start. Reyes was better than usual but JP was 0-for-5.
92-93 - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#233399) #
Arencibia needs 3 of the 5 starts so it appears Farrell prefers Molina working with Drabek & Morrow.
92-93 - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#233400) #
The latest injury, Encarnacion, sucks. He was really starting to swing a nice bat.
Gerry - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#233401) #
EE has a sore wrist, the infielders are dropping like flies. 
ayjackson - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#233403) #
So can we assume that Lawrie is trained in Voodoo?
Jonny German - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#233405) #
"Arencibia needs 3 of the 5 starts so it appears Farrell prefers Molina working with Drabek & Morrow."

Oy. It hadn't occurred to me that they were re-adjusting and having Molina catch Morrow. As far as I'm concerned Arencibia "needs" 4 of the 5 starts.
brent - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#233410) #

That Boston game's strikezone was odd for all of the pitchers with the high strike called. Everyone gets a mulligan. Here's Jo-Jo's plot.

rfan8 - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#233411) #
Wow someone get on for Bautista please.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#233415) #
Bautista has legitimately turned into one of the best hitters in baseball.  His at bats are a thing of beauty.

Farrell's decision to have Snider bunt in the ninth (assuming it wasn't Snider doing it on his own) was horrible.  You never have Snider bunting off a righty, especially not with McDonald and McCoy hitting behind.  I hope this will be a learning experience for him, and I never want to see that again.

Ryan Day - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#233416) #
I'm going to risk a horrible jinx upon the team, but Bautista's extension looks like a bargain. Is it possible he's actually BETTER this year? Probably not, but he had a lousy start last year - hit just 213/314/427 in April.

It'd be nice if there could be some runners on ahead of him (ie. not hitting behind Corey Patterson), and one or two batters behind him started driving him in after some of his many walks.

Chuck - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#233417) #
Objective evaluations are very difficult when a player or team is performing very, very well or very, very poorly.
Magpie - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#233421) #
As far as I'm concerned Arencibia "needs" 4 of the 5 starts.

Only one catcher in the majors actually started that many games last season (Yadier Molina, with Brian McCann right behind him.) The top AL workload (Pierzynski, Suzuki, Wieters) was about 75%.

I expect Molina to keep the Drabek assignment, but I do think Arencibia will get a chance to work with Morrow.
Magpie - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#233422) #
Farrell's decision to have Snider bunt in the ninth

Snider was asked to bunt, and I'm not wild about the idea either. On the other hand: a) Snider is in a slump; b) Tampa had their their third string third baseman in the game, and c) he was safe.
Magpie - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#233423) #
Anyway, Farrell is hardly the second coming of Gene Mauch. It's closer to "meet the new boss, same as the old boss." The Jays now have 2 sacrifice hits in the first 20 games. At this rate, they'll end up with 16 over the course of the season, exactly the number they had last season. Last year, that was the fewest in the AL (by a lot), but this year Buck Showalter is running the Orioles, and Showalter never bunts.
Jonny German - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#233424) #
As far as I'm concerned Arencibia "needs" 4 of the 5 starts.

Only one catcher in the majors actually started that many games last season (Yadier Molina, with Brian McCann right behind him.) The top AL workload (Pierzynski, Suzuki, Wieters) was about 75%.


Right. But that's a testament to the physical demands of the tools of ignorance, not to general roster management strategy. Most teams do not plan to start their backup catcher 40% of the time. And especially not when their starter has huge upside and when their backup can't realistically be expected to break 70 OPS+.
rtcaino - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#233425) #
and c) he was safe.

Which I know, despite being at the game.

I was surprised they showed such a descriptive replay in the dome: they even slowed the footage down, to show how Snider's footwas down first.

I heard AA quip on the radio once that it would be nice if they actually showed replays: perhaps this represents a change in mandate?
92-93 - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#233426) #
I would have had no problem with Snider bunting for a hit there, but putting on a straight sac bunt where Snider commits before the pitch with McDonald & McCoy on deck was completely ridiculous.

Tough to judge the plays live but I thought Yunel could have made a better attempt turning two when he had two opportunities in a row - he seemed very hesitant to hang in there.

MLB needs to stop protecting umpires by not putting up instant replay on the big screen - it really takes away from the experience. There needs to be more accountability for these umpires' actions.
dan gordon - Saturday, April 23 2011 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#233429) #

Yes, it seems like a very poor decision to me to have Snider bunt in that situation.  He has the platoon advantage.  He has the power to win the game with one swing.  The pitcher had just come in and surrendered a line shot to a guy who has not been hitting well.  Having him face Snider keeps the pressure on him, instead of giving up an out.  The next 2 batters are very weak hitters, neither of whom has the platoon advantage.  I'm very disappointed to find out that the Blue Jays have a manager who thinks that is the right call in that situation.  If I'm Farnsworth, I'm thinking, oh, wow so I don't have to worry about Snider hitting one out, and I only have to get 2 outs against John McDonald and Mike McCoy??  BONUS!!

That's 2 times now the Blue Jays have gotten a bad call, very late in the game, that may very well have directly cost them the game.  I know these things even out over time, but still.....

Nice to see Morrow looking pretty good.  I was concerned about him based on the rehab outings, but he was better than I feared he would be.  Too bad Villanueva gave up the HR - he's been excellent this year.  Rivera may be starting to get the bat untracked - that's his normal pattern - he's usually very weak at the start of the season.

bpoz - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#233432) #
Happy Easter Everyone!!!

Looking at our season so far we have a 9W-11L record and have been dominated by 1 team, the Red Sox, but we dominated the Twins.
4W-5L in 1 run games & 2W-2L in 2 run games.

SP from Romero, Drabek & Litsch has been good so far, only 1 bad start each, but against Bos & NYY. Cecil has had 3 bad starts & 1 good, Reyes has had 2 bad, 1 good & 1 acceptable. Morrows 1 good start makes for 4 good SPs assuming Morrow is completely healthy. Further I see Drabek (rookie), Litsch (recovering from injury) & Reyes (Asset development) as unknown risks.
In a contending year I would want my great rookie (Drabek) & recovering pitcher (Litsch) to look good enough to meet an absolute level of excellence before allowing them onto the 5 man rotation. Zep looked good enough as a SP in his last 4-5 starts of 2010, so he could be the choice, but the pen would suffer from that loss. Asset acquisitions like Morrow & Reyes IMO are not affordable in a contending year. IMO we have to live with a struggling established starter.
IMO nobody has looked really bad in the pen so I am OK with it.
The position players provide Offense & Defense. IMO Defense is OK except at 3rd which is bad. Our experiment at 1st & rookie catcher are OK with me. In a contending year great rookies getting their ML experience is fine. EE & Nix as our 3rd basemen was not the result of an injury so the decision making by the FO about our 3rd baseman was somehow lacking. I am not sure but I thing defense can be evaluated in the off season so that the defensive results are close to that evaluation, injuries not withstanding.
I have no problem with the offense from a planning level. Again great rookies have to be given their opportunity, fast & slow starts should even out, which leaves overall over & under performances determining the eventual success level.

Well now about the huge number of player changes:-
1) The team won the decision to keep Escobar off the 7 day DL. Since he is a good player you should consider gambling.
2) Dotel for Janssen, options rule, we replaced a good player with a good player.
3) Long or short bench with the corresponding short or long pen, I look upon as a way to use the rules to deal with a taxed pen and minor injury problems. IMO there is no harm to development or option usage if a revolving door of Mills, Perez, Richmond...Sierra, Mastro & A Hech is used. Even if Sierra, Mastro & A Hech sit on the ML bench with no usage for 3-4 games, it should not harm them.
ayjackson - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#233434) #
My heart sank the moment Snider squared to bunt yesterday.I twas extremely disappointing.  I`m not convinced it was the wrong decision though, feel free to convince me.  The clear decision made, was to go for the tie in the 9th and not the win.  I`ve seen the run expectancy tables and understand that you can expect more runs from the situation just before the bunt, than the situation just after the bunt.  That is obscured by big innings a bit though.  I`d be interested in data that showed how often a team was able to score 2 or more runs from a first/second/no outs situation versus a second/third/one out situation.  Is that data available?
sam - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#233435) #
This is a long way away and silly to really be talking about it now, but the 2012 offseason will be an interesting one for the Jays. They'll have to make a variety of decisions regarding their own personnel, but on top of that they could feasibly make a run at Fielder. I also think someone like David Wright, who many New York beat writers think is on his way out of Queens could be had for a package of say Lawrie, d"Arnaud (one of the catching prospects), Stewart, and probably another pitching prospect. Then the Jays could also go after someone like Palpelbon as well.

I may be dreaming here, and many I'm sure will scoff at the notion of trading Lawrie, but there certainly will be opportunities to improve the team and take on payroll.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#233436) #
Run/win expectancy tables don't really help you. If Johnny Mac is the 2010-11 Johnny Mac, the bunt with a 20% reach rate is surely a good bet. If Johnny Mac is the career Johnny Mac, it almost sure is not.

The bench is awfully weak. This is a GM issue.
ayjackson - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#233437) #

The bench is awfully weak. This is a GM issue.

In fairness, if Davis, Hill and Encarnacion are available, the situation is different.  I think they refuse to bring up Lawrie/Thames/Cooper until they`ve had a couple months at AAA, so they`re just going to have to suffer through the injuries right now.

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#233438) #
If people were healthy, the bench is Molina, Posednik, Nix and McDonald.

That's not a bad bench. The GM attempted to sign Martin and Chavez, but they'd rather play for the Yankees, who are virtually guaranteed to make the playoffs, than the Blue Jays.

Right now, both Hill and his replacement are injured. Similarly, Davis and his replacement are injured. That's a bit unusual.

The Jays' problem is there is little in the farm system to draw from except the recent additions, and they're not going to get the call.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#233439) #
It's true that there are a lot of injuries right now, but I really don't see that Eric Thames is learning anything by being in Las Vegas. With Price starting, he would likely have been on the bench and ready for an at-bat in the 9th. He'll be 25 in July.

ramone - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#233440) #
It's true that there are a lot of injuries right now, but I really don't see that Eric Thames is learning anything by being in Las Vegas. With Price starting, he would likely have been on the bench and ready for an at-bat in the 9th. He'll be 25 in July.

There was an article I believe in the Las Vegas Journal (I received it on my google alerts last week sometime, I've deleted it since then) and in it the 51's manager said Thames is pretty much there as a hitter but has alot to learn still with his fielding and baserunning.
ayjackson - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#233441) #

Thames had 755 career pro at-bats heading into this year.  He certainly had plenty to gain going to Vegas.  A hot streak in the PCL is nothing to get excited about.  Cooper might be the better choice with 1250 career at bats heading into the year, but I wouldn`t fault management for wanting to see a little more of a sample size for the `Vegans`before making the call.

In the end, we generated 4 runs off the best pitching staff in the AL (with their Ace leading the way) and left plenty on the table in the 7th, 8th and 9th.  It was a good effort.  Some days JMac will win one for you with a walk-off, other days he won`t. : )

 

85bluejay - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#233446) #
I am going to have to excuse Jose Bautista's performance going forward - after all, who is going to pitch to him with such an anemic offense surrounding him. 
ayjackson - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#233448) #
Excuse his performance??
85bluejay - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#233449) #

ayjackson,

I think you missed the "going forward" part - I expect pitchers to avoid Bautista like the plague until the jays make them start paying - so it wouldn't surprise me if Jose starts getting frustrated and losing plate discipline

Matthew E - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#233450) #
Same old story. You're never as good as you look when you're going good, and you're never as bad as you look when you're going bad. Right now the Jays are going bad. But they're not as bad as they look.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#233455) #
Thames was not in the lineup today for the 51s. Hopefully a move is in the works.
ayjackson - Sunday, April 24 2011 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#233459) #
btw, I really like seeing the Brooks Baseball recap of the starters.  If this were to become a more regular BB feature, I wouldn`t complain.
Johnny Mc Channels J-Bau | 34 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.