Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - The Sin City and Jesse Litsch

The twittersphere is abuzz with the news that Frank Francisco has been activated and Jesse Litsch has been sent down to Las Vegas. It appears that the preservation of a potential asset in Jo-Jo Reyes is taking precedent over putting the best team on the field today.

Jesse had an option left so he could be sent down without losing him. Reyes did not.

Our poll on the left here shows that over 80% of you thought Reyes should be pulled from the rotation. The 9% of you who voted for Litsch were right.

I think this decision needs to have some hard questions answered by AA and/or John Farrell. Namely why keep Reyes in the rotation? Are you serious about winning this season? Why not move Reyes to the bullpen? What if Reyes stinks up the joint in his next start?

Other than not losing Reyes I don't really understand this decision.

Posted by Gerry on Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 12:44 PM EDT.

The Sin City and Jesse Litsch | 70 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

China fan - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#233036) #

So the Jays bullpen currently has nine (9) occupants: Rauch, Dotel, Francisco, Frasor, Janssen, Camp, Villanueva, Rzepczynski, Perez.

If Mike Green is correct that an 8-man bullpen is bad for the confidence of the starters, what will they think of a 9-man bullpen?

Of course one or two of them will be sent down within the next couple of days, but a 9-man bullpen is pretty incredible.

By the way, I assume that Perez will get demoted when Morrow returns. But that still leaves an 8-man pen, with Reyes as another possible addition to the bullpen if Litsch is recalled soon (and I think Litsch deserves to be called back soon, unless Reyes is spectacular in his next start or two).

85bluejay - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#233040) #

Are you serious about winning this season?

Trading away Marcum & Wells ( I supported both moves) said to me loud & clear that this is another building year and strengthing the organisation for the future at the risk of the ML team this year is the goal - I'm not going to get too exercised over the 5/6 starters, both of whom I don't expect to be in the rotation next year - if this move results in the Jays eventually getting some value for Reyes, then I'm all for it.

LJ - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#233042) #

I rather like Litsch and I hate to see a guy demoted when he didn't exactly crap the mound, but I can see why they'd want to at least try to build Reyes' trade value rather than just cut him loose for nothing. I hate to use the ol' cliche of 'lose one now to win a few more later', but if AA can wave his magic wand and turn Reyes into a prospect like he did with Purcey... who knows? Isn't this still a building year?

uglyone - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#233043) #

Choosing to play the undeserving Reyes and Purcey has already hurt us this season, and will continue to hurt us. Reyes has done nothing to show that he's any different with us than he was before. Lack of control, lack of any outpitch, lack of any ability to pitch out of a jam. He is nowhere near as good a pitcher as Litsch, and this clearly makes our team significantly weaker.

I don't mind making moves for the future, even at the expense of now, but there's no future in Jo-Jo Reyes (and no, the potential go grab some C prospect for him in a trade isn't worth it either).

This move annoys the hell out of me.

For the record:

2011

Litsch (26): 3gs, 5.8ip/gs, 8.3k/9, 2.3k/bb, 0.5hr/9, 1.44whip, 3.63era, 3.17fip, 3.50xfip
Reyes (26): 3gs, 4.4ip/gs, 8.1k/9, 1.7k/bb, 0.7hr/9, 2.18whip, 6.75era, 4.26fip, 4.94xfip

Career

Litsch (26): 62gs, 5.8ip/gs, 4.7k/9, 1.9k/bb, 1.1hr/9, 1.32whip, 4.06era, 4.73fip, 4.57xfip
Reyes (26): 40gs, 4.9ip/gs, 6.0k/9, 1.4k/bb, 1.4hr/9, 1.68whip, 5.98era, 5.30fip, 4.74xfip

The Jays deserve to lose every game Reyes pitches in.

China fan - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#233045) #

I think the Reyes experiment has been extended for one key reason: his start against Anaheim on April 10. Take a moment to review that game. He went 7 innings and gave up only 1 earned run. He recorded 6 strikeouts and gave up only 1 walk and 6 hits. Of his 119 pitches, 88 were strikes. He kept battling for 7 innings, despite early struggles. I think Farrell and AA loved his performance in that game, and they believe he has the capacity to pitch more games like that. I'm not sure if I agree, but I can at least see their viewpoint.

Dave Till - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#233046) #

The Jays obviously see something in Reyes, and I saw it too in the spring: one of the spring games was televised, and Reyes was absolutely dominant - attacking the strike zone, inducing ground balls, etc. It was only the spring, which means it should be discounted, but still. Also, three starts is too few to really draw a conclusion about a pitcher.

But this does make it appear that AA is playing for the longer term - Litsch is clearly better than Reyes right now.

ramone - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#233047) #

The mets have designated Emaus for assignment.

85bluejay - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#233048) #

I remember all the Whining when the Jays left Emaus off the 40 man roster, especially when they kept Luis Perez on

China fan - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#233049) #

Under the Rule 5 rules, I think the Jays are entitled to take back Emaus for $25,000 if they wish. They get first crack at him before any other team. Am I correct about that? And should they take him back or let him go? Personally I think they should take him back -- they're a little thin at 2B in the minors. He might never work out, but even if there's a small chance, he's worth the small investment.

Sano - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#233050) #

Another aspect of this, Litsch seems to be a very popular guy on the team. I think there are a number of guys in the locker room who are wondering just what the basis is for this decision. How are people being evaluated on the Jays? Performance or potential?

eudaimon - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#233052) #

I assume that the scouts and coaches think that JoJo is a good asset to have, and that he has potential. For this reason I support the move. Besides, a couple of crappy starts doesn't mean too much. Makes me wonder what people said last year, when Brandon Morrow put up stats lines of 5 IP / 5 ER / 4 H / 5 BB and 4 IP / 7 ER / 8 H / 1 BB to start the year. Sometimes you have to give the guys in charge the benefit of the doubt, especially considering their strong performance so far.

We should definitely take back Emaus. Not sure how that works though... I assume if we take him back, we don't have to put him on the 40 man roster. If we do it's a different story.

Shame that Litsch had to go down, but baseball is a business and AA is a shrewd businessman. Litsch will be back sooner than later. At some point when injuries strike some other team, we'll gain some nicer prospects by trading some of these excess arms.

85bluejay - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#233054) #

China Fan,

I think other teams can claim him if they keep him on their 25 roster, the jays are the only team that can option him - remember how the jays claimed that rule v pitcher from Boston that Tampa had originally drafted.

hypobole - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#233055) #

Mark me down as another who never imagined Litsch being sent down. Another example of the fact that the only thing I know for sure of how to run this ballclub is that I don't know as much as I think I know.

ayjackson - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#233056) #

I had been thinking the Purcey move was to free up lefty space in the bullpen for Reyes. I was thinking Farrell would want two lefties in the pen. This move buys them a bit more of a look at Reyes in the rotation. I guess the alternative was sending Janssen down again. I'm glad they're sharing the "options" around.

Jonny German - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#233057) #

It's unlikely to amount to much, but it's a bad move.

Kelekin - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#233058) #

It definitely is a poor move on every statistical level. I still believe Reyes is best suited for bullpen work and Litsch had been better overall this year. Even Cecil was worse than Litsch.

christaylor - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#233061) #

I agree with the sentiment that this isn't the best move, but I was at Fenway for Reyes' start. It was very cold and damp, which is just an excuse, but Reyes didn't seem comfortable talking to Molina frequently. There were also a couple of bright spots -- particularly two Ks where Reyes worked the hitters (Ellsbury and Pedroia) letter perfectly, hitting Molina's target with high fast balls away and hitting the glove down and in on the next pitch.

Perhaps the cold and the small flashes were enough (along with April 10th start as mentioned) were enough for Farrell to give Reyes a mulligan.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#233062) #

Just for the record, here's what Jesse's done in his "healthy" seasons (2007 age 22, 2008 age 23, 2011 age 26):

51gs, 6.0ip/gs, 1.29whip, 3.64era

TheBunk - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#233063) #

Reyes' performance hasn't matched the overblown scouting reports. He's an arm strength lefty with not much else and not much command. I'd understand this move if Reyes were an asset that could fetch the Jays at least a B grade prospect but he won't, he's not a good pitcher and he hasn't even been smoke and mirrors so far this season, he's been crap and every major league team knows it.

rfan8 - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#233065) #

This could be a short term move to give Farrell more arms heading into Yankee Stadium. He certainly makes use of them. Litsch just pitched so he wouldn't be available anyway. Either way, AA has to move some pen arms. It's better this way though than to be short arms.

Lee John - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#233066) #

It appears that the preservation of a potential asset in Jo-Jo Reyes is taking precedent over putting the best team on the field today.

I assume that's the thinking, but honestly: is Jo-Jo Reyes going to be what finally pushes the Jays into contention? Is it going to be something that you could get in trade for Jo-Jo Reyes under any realistic scenario? I highly doubt either of those. Just a mistake IMO.

TamRa - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#233067) #

I remember all the Whining when the Jays left Emaus off the 40 man roster, especially when they kept Luis Perez on

I'd still rather have Emaus than Perez.

But I may not know something they know about Perez.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#233068) #

I am disappointed to see Purcey go, but he is 28 years old. Time to try somewhere else. I think this shows how well Rzep was pitching.

For everyone who is disappointed about Litsch, two things:

1. We are not going to win it all this year. If Reyes can turn into something or be traded for something, then they have to do it. Litsch can come back and make an impact later when the Reyes experiment is over, or maybe if we are lucky, he does make an impact and Litsch stays in AAA.

2. Litsch is a fine pitcher, but we are not winning the world series with him in our rotation.... sorry...

eudaimon - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#233069) #

Yeah yeah, he has posted good stats in the past, when he was "healthy", and JoJo posted bad stats in the past (and so far this season). I think in our semi-informed position as fans, we have to assume sometimes that there is more at play that we don't know about. You know the stats clearly, and so do they. But they still chose to keep Reyes on the roster, as this is the only way to keep Reyes in general.

Why is that? Probably just a pure business move. Keep an asset as opposed to losing it. Makes sense from a business perspective, if you think that Reyes will hold value or help attain value in the future. Given that Litsch was only demoted and not lost, these are the two possible results, assuming that both are only options as starters:

1. Keep Litsch in rotation, DFA Reyes: this loses the asset in Reyes, while keeping Litsch in the rotation. Litsch probably posts an ERA in the 3.5-4 ERA range.
2. Demote Litsch, keep Reyes in the rotation: both assets are kept. Reyes posts an ERA that is hard to predict, but that the coaching staff seems to think will be good. However, for the purposes of this, let's assume that he will, at least in the short-term, give up an average of one more prorated run per start, and about .66 extra runs per start in general (ie: ERA is calculated over 9 innings, and thus per start. Given a start of about 6 innings, the run per start difference is only 2/3 of the full run of ERA, making it about .66 extra runs per start).

Given the uncertainty in the situation (how good is Reyes? what kind of potential does he have? is he experiencing growing pains, like Morrow last year? can he be better than Litsch), the state of the franchise (are we playing to win today, or win in the future? should we worry about .66 more runs per start from one starter in the rotation, given that the alternative involves losing an asset or potential asset?), and the seemingly high-quality of our scouts, coaches, and general manager, I think it's silly to get too worked up about this decision. All that stats in the world can't always make up for the lack of knowledge that we have on how things are working on the inside, what people on the inside are thinking, what scouts are thinking, etc. If the organization thinks that Reyes has enough potential to be worth holding onto, I think we have to accept that, at least until there is a larger sample size or a prolonged failure on Reyes' part. If we were obvious contenders my position might be different, but as fringe-psuedo contenders these are things we should allow ourselves to do.

TamRa - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#233070) #

Litsch going down is no more unfair to him than Janssen going down (over Dotel - i know Dotel can't go and neither can Reyes) was fair to Casey.

This is simply the result of hoarding assets.

I don't think it was "wrong" or "a mistake" because I'm assuming that between AA, Farrell, Walton, Hentgen, and all their scouts, they have an idea about whether or not Reyes is an asset and i defer to their judgment.

Frankly, if it were about who was the best pitcher one might argue Zep is better than either of them.

all that said, i don't think anyone should fool themselves that the jays are trying to squeeze out every win this year - if you thought that you haven't been paying attention.

ayjackson - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#233071) #

I assumed the Purcey trade was a precursor to a Reyes move to the 'pen. Not so fast ay!

eudaimon - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#233072) #

Article about Reyes: http://sports.nationalpost.com/2011/03/25/jays-reyes-battling-his-southpaw-demons/

uglyone - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#233075) #

If they intend to use the offday Thursday to entirely skip Reyes, and are keeping him only for relief use and intend to call up Litsch the next time around the rotation, then I'll take back everything I said here.

China fan - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#233076) #

Hmmm, so if Reyes is actually being kept as a reliever, this means that the Jays currently have a 10-man bullpen.... Is this an all-time record for bullpen size? Does MLB keep statistics on this?

China fan - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#233079) #

Farrell has just announced that Reyes will start against Tampa on Friday, followed by Morrow with the start on Saturday. So the Jays still think that Reyes has possibilities as a starter.

Chuck - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#233080) #

You wonder if the organization figures that since they were able to "fix" Morrow last year, maybe the same can be done for Reyes this year. L'Affaire Reyes is certainly one where the organization and the fanbase are not exactly simpatico.

92-93 - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#233081) #

If the Blue Jays are so concerned with hoarding talent, why the heck did they let Purcey go? Demoting Litsch over Drabek & Cecil is a puzzling move.

ayjackson - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#233083) #

Demoting Litsch over Drabek & Cecil is a puzzling move.

Hardly.

They didn't dump Purcey, they traded a 29 year old reliever with no options for a 24 year-old one with three options. Makes sense. DFA and trade is in Reyes' future too if he doesn't perform - bank on it. Another start or two to increase value, or a stint in the bullpen to increase value.

katman - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#233084) #

Namely why keep Reyes in the rotation?

To develop a potential front of the rotation starter or useful trade-bait, in preparation to contend in future years.

Are you serious about winning this season?

What aspect of "future years" is unclear? If we can win this season, we'll take it, but that was never the expectation.

Why not move Reyes to the bullpen?

Because his resulting value is much lower if he succeeds, and it will be very hard to find him opportunities there this year. Start him or release him.

What if Reyes stinks up the joint in his next start?

Then unless we score lots of runs, we probably lose. And we hope he does better next time.

There are not an indefinite number of next times, but there will definitely be several of them. I'll repeat what I said when I picked Litsch in the poll, and went on record as to why: I think Reyes is close to becoming a valuable piece. I don't know exactly how valuable. But valuable enough to do this. And potentially, top-tier valuable. If we're serious about build a team on high-firepower players, stuff like this is also part of that strategy nbecause Reyes could absolutely be one.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#233086) #

career numbers:

BOS C.Buchholz (26): 65gs, 5.8ip/gs, 6.9k/9, 1.8k/bb, 1.37whip, 3.81era
TBR W.Davis (25): 38gs, 5.9ip/gs, 6.3k/9, 1.9k/bb, 1.32whip, 3.94era
TOR J.Litsch (26): 63gs, 5.7ip/gs, 4.7k/9, 1.9k/bb, 1.32whip, 4.06era
TBR J.Niemann (28): 64gs, 5.9ip/gs, 6.4k/9, 2.1k/bb, 1.33whip, 4.26era
NYY P.Hughes (25): 60gs, 5.4ip/gs, 7.1k/9, 2.1k/bb, 1.37whip, 4.97era

everyone on this list was slotted in as a #2-#3 guy on a potential "contender" this year.

Except for Litsch, who apparently isn't even a good #5 starter.

eudaimon - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#233089) #

That K/9 sticks out. Litsch probably has the lowest ceiling of those bunch. No one has said Litsch wouldn't be a good 5th starter. We've pretty much come to the conclusion that his demotion was for reasons not related to performance (closer to convenience)

Sano - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#233090) #

Just being reported on Twitter by Davidi that Litsch was always going to be the one to go down according to Farrell. It's a tough thing to hear. Performance means nothing now I suppose.

ZekeBella - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#233091) #

I am one of the few who voted to send Litsch down when Morrow comes back. I see Jesse as one of those overrated mediocre to average guys who somehow cast a spell over the crowd in here. However, the 2nd part of my equation is to exchange Zep for Jo Jo rotation to pen. I think Zep deserves one more chance in the rotation and that Jo Jo may find a niche in the bullpen. If it doesn't work out, fine, that's what this year is for and Litcsh can also be recalled. Perhaps he can work on avoiding the big inning down in AAA. As pointed out far above, if AA intended to contend this year he wouldn't have traded Marcum and Wells. It's all about setting up next year. Why not experiment some? The consensus of Bauxites is that the guy sent down should be determined by performance only. I disagree. Why not think "outside the Baux" for a change. Sorry about the pun but i couldn't resist.

A bigger concern to me right now is Morrow. He is much more integral to the future than Jesse and those numbers in Dunedin are not pretty. If his health issues tear down that potential he has shown, then it is the guy called up that will be remembered, not who was sent down.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#233092) #

It appears that the preservation of a potential asset in Jo-Jo Reyes is taking precedent over putting the best team on the field today.

No other possible explanation, obviously. The players understand and accept this - up to a point. You can`t make too big a habit out of this sort of thing. If the players get the idea that management doesn`t care whether you win today`s game, it makes it a little harder for them to care quite as much. That way madness lies....

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#233094) #

Hey UglyOne... the main issue with your argument is that fact that the majority of Litsch's numbers are pre-injuries and about three years old. I am a big Litch supporter and don't think he deserved the demotion but the comparison of stats does not hold up.

cybercavalier - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#233095) #

The following is my opinion, with no intention to rob salt in wounds. Without any managerial consideration, is Litsch a better pitcher than Reyes ? I personally think Reyes is better overall. (So I agree with uglyone's stats interpretation). With that preference and all the comments above in mind, sending Litsch to AAA is a good choice. At AAA, the 51s needs a starter (so Chad Cordero would not be starting as a reliever.)

92-93 - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#233097) #

ayjackson,

You quoted me and then didn't respond to what I wrote. Litsch's FIP was the best on the team, his K/9 is equal to Romero's, and their xFIPs are near identical. If the team decided it HAD to keep Reyes in the rotation, why was Litsch sent to the chopping block? Drabek & Cecil would have been easier sells.

For all this talk about upside - Shaun Marcum got us Brett Lawrie, and the Angels used Joe Saunders to base a prospect package around to acquire Dan Haren. Give Jesse Litsch the chance he's shown he deserves when healthy and he might surprise you with the return he can eventually fetch.

brent - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#233098) #

I had voted for Cecil (I assume he still has options). I thought he could just work on getting his velocity back at his own pace. I want to see Jo-Jo given a chance. That last start, the umpire wasn't calling anything low in the strikezone. I think giving him at least a few months would be fine. I don't understand the hate everywhere for him. I wouldn't count on the starters all being healthy anyway, so keeping him around is the right choice.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#233100) #

is Litsch a better pitcher than Reyes ? I personally think Reyes is better overall.

Better at what? Not pitching, surely.

Two pitchers, born five months apart. The RH has a 22-25, 4.08 career record in the AL East. The LH has a 5-17, 6.40 mark, mostly in the National League. The LH is better, right now?

cybercavalier - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#233101) #

Re Magpie:

All that stats in the world can't always make up for the lack of knowledge that we have on how things are working on the inside, what people on the inside are thinking, what scouts are thinking, etc.

For example, even though I am leaning towards the option of trading Purcey for Farquar, I did not envision my thought came true. Earlier, I though of signing Budde when he was released by the Angels. (My posts on Budde were on this site, so check them if you like.) And my thought became reality. In a nutshell, posters here could at least influence or voice our concern for our beloved Jays. Some posters here seem to connect to people inside the organization.

Also, stats can be improved. Arencibia was struggling in 2009 AAA season and he is playing just fine now. And IMO, both pitchers are young enough to change their performance for good (or worse).

Magpie - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#233103) #

stats can be improved

Performance, actually - but there are certainly no guarantees that it will improve. Litsch has been roughly a serviceable major league starter. Reyes has been a piece of crap. That's how they have performed. Thinking that Reyes might perform better in the future is not unreasonable, it's certainly not impossible, but it doesn't change how he's performed so far.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#233105) #

Litsch's career ERA+ is 106. League average for a starter is 95. He has given the Jays 360 good innings thus far in his career. There is no guarantee that this will continue, and I myself was skeptical of his ability to pitch well in 2011, but so far he has done exactly that.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#233107) #

I don't mind this move at all. The Jays have done an excellent job of raising pitchers over the past few years. Romero in the '09 rotation? Morrow getting a third month of rope with which to hang himself last year? If they think Reyes' talent is worth a few more shots, I trust them - they've earned it. Litsch gets a raw deal here, but there's no way he'll be in AAA for long.

If you wanted to argue that Litsch shouldn't be sent down because he's doing OK and and Las Vegas ruins pitchers, I could see that.

If Cecil turns out to be injured or hopeless, it'll be nice to still have Reyes around and stretched out.

TamRa - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#233108) #

Farrell said in one of the interviews on the 590 site something pretty specific about Jesse falling in love with his cutter and not using the pitch sequence the coaches would prefer. It's POSSIBLE that the demotion is not exactly a reprimand but taking an opportunity, in conjunction with other considerations, to say "wake up and listen to your coaches on this"

cybercavalier - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#233109) #

Yes, performance can be improved. This time I would rather trust the source inside the organization. At any rate, I am okay with this transactions.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#233114) #

I don't think it's a big deal in the grand scheme of things (I'm certainly not the biggest Jesse Litsch fan) ... but it looks like an awful lot like rewarding failure (because Jo-Jo Reyes resume contains very little else.) Not something I like to see.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#233115) #

Magpie - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#233117) #

Now how did that happen?

ayjackson - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#233126) #

You quoted me and then didn't respond to what I wrote

I beg to differ. You said that demoting Litsch over Cecil and Drabek was puzzling and I responded hardly. If you felt compelled to justify your statement, I might have felt compelled to justify mine. As it is, I don`t find it puzzling in the slightest and haven`t read where anybody else was similiarly puzzled. The issue with most seems to be a Litsch vs Reyes question.

hypobole - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#233127) #

In 2005 we picked up a mediocre LH starting pitcher who was 2 years older than Jo-Jo. No one would have complained if we would have dumped the guy. But the team worked with him, eventually converting him into a reliever. Scott Downs ended up giving us 4 excellent years out of the pen and 2 picks in the upcoming draft.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#233128) #

The issue with most seems to be a Litsch vs Reyes question.

Which is what you responded to. Yet you quoted my preference to see Drabek or Cecil go down before Litsch. Weird.

ayjackson - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#233130) #

Which is what you responded to. Yet you quoted my preference to see Drabek or Cecil go down before Litsch. Weird.

Ah I see. My response is confusing. I only gave a one-word response to your quote and I think the Purcey stuff I said was responding to something somebody else had written. So you thought it was puzzling, I said hardly (to me), then I went on about something somebody else had said about Purcey. Clear as mud and we can all go to bed.

TamRa - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 02:41 AM EDT (#233137) #

... but it looks like an awful lot like rewarding failure (because Jo-Jo Reyes resume contains very little else.) Not something I like to see.

you don't like to seethe team making decisions based on what they see, as professionals, face to face rather than ah handful of data on a stat sheet?

The fascinating thing, to me at least, is that Jo-Jo is two weeks younger than RickyRo. I had the impression, because the Braves rushed him up from AA and didn't back off when that failed to work, that he was a couple of years older than that.

They are from the same area too.

Anyway, the history in baseball is LONG of one organization squandering ability and a new organization unlocking it. if the personnel team thinks they have a shot at doing it again, i'm all for it. that's not rewarding failure, it's rewarding potential (they are rewarding potential more than accomplishment with Snider, too, by the way)

Magpie - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 04:54 AM EDT (#233141) #

you don't like to seethe team making decisions based on what they see, as professionals, face to face rather than ah handful of data on a stat sheet?

Oh, I'm fine with that. It's the Jo-Jo Reyes part that's irritating. I have a weakness for seeing players earn their opportunties. Scott Downs (not your point, TamRa) was indeed quite mediocre in his major league stops before coming to Toronto, where he found himself as a relief pitcher. But he was still a damn sight more impressive than Reyes, who's simply been bad, and who the Blue Jays clearly still think of as a starter (which is why it's Litsch who gets sent out, rather than Rzepczynski.)

Of course, maybe they're really just tired of Jesse "Five-innings-and-I'm done" Litsch.

scottt - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 06:57 AM EDT (#233144) #

Does that mean Molina starts 60% of the time now? I suppose JPA could DH one of those.

Chuck - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#233147) #

But the team worked with him, eventually converting him into a reliever. Scott Downs ended up giving us 4 excellent years out of the pen

Yes, but how unlikely was that transmogrification? Downs greatly defied the odds turning into something from nothing. The odds are stacked against Reyes. He could theoretically turn into the next Downs but his conversion process becomes problematic if the domino effect is such that arguably stronger candidates get squeezed out.

I say keep Reyes on a short leash. If no measure of success is soon forthcoming, move on and let another organization roll the dice with him.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#233154) #

"Hey UglyOne... the main issue with your argument is that fact that the majority of Litsch's numbers are pre-injuries and about three years old. I am a big Litch supporter and don't think he deserved the demotion but the comparison of stats does not hold up."

absolutely, Marc, Litsch's numbers have a higher risk factor given that the other guys are coming off good years last year and Litsch has been injured the last two. I still think it's a rather stunning comparison given that the others are treated as frontline starters for contenders while Litsch is treated as MLB fodder.

Moreover, I think the risk factor is somewhat mitigated by the fact that A) Litsch is outpitching all of them THIS year, B) that Litsch's numbers "when healthy" are flat out better than all of theirs, C) the bulk of his numbers come at a younger age than the rest, and D) that Litsch has shown distinct improvement this year in his one big weakness - getting swings and misses. And this improvement has shown all the way back since the start of spring training - he's consistently been getting tons of swinging misses from day one this year, and if that's legit (and his minor league numbers show that it has the potential to be) then suddenly Litsch's profile takes a big step up overall.

No doubt Litsch could blow up eventually, even soon, but given both his track record and his current effectiveness, I have a hard time seeing many teams in baseball who wouldn't find room for him in their rotations right now - and certainly not for the pleasure of watching Jo-Jo Reyes start games for them.

"In 2005 we picked up a mediocre LH starting pitcher who was 2 years older than Jo-Jo. No one would have complained if we would have dumped the guy. But the team worked with him, eventually converting him into a reliever. Scott Downs ended up giving us 4 excellent years out of the pen and 2 picks in the upcoming draft."

Not only was Scott Downs already (and always) better than Reyes, but the Jays didn't force him into their rotation - they kept him as the 7th man in the 'pen, as a long man / fill-in reliever. They had a 24 year old Chacin, 25 year old Bush, and 28 year old Towers in the rotation instead of Downs - none of whom were as good as Litsch.

And that year's 'pen needed all the help it could get - Batista was the closer, Speier was the only proven reliever, and Downs was competing with fellow castoff Pete Walker for mop up duties.

And more importantly, Downs EARNED his innings that year. He was very good. Reyes not so much.

"Of course, maybe they're really just tired of Jesse "Five-innings-and-I'm done" Litsch"

Litsch has averaged a hair under 6ip per start in his career. He's averaged exactly 6ip per start in his "healthy" years. He's failed to go 6 innings only once so far this year, when he went 5 shutout innings against Seattle. Some shoddy defense cost him a chance to go 7 vs. Boston.

I honestly think this is a flat out crazy move. I can't see how any team in baseball would CHOOSE to have Reyes continue to start games for them even if they DIDN'T have as good a pitcher as Litsch ready to go. I'd think they'd try any AAAA pitcher ahead of Reyes right now.

Reyes has a career 6.42era mostly in the NL, even worse this year at 6.75. He hasn't even averaged 5ip per start in his career. He's managed to get more than 10 outs exactly ONCE this year.

I could see some team stashing this guy at the back of a weak bullpen hoping that he might figure something out there, but I can't see any other team continuing the charade of trying to make him a starter.

I don't even think this is a "bad" decision - I think it's a ridiculous one.

bpoz - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#233164) #

If Morrow does pitch on Saturday, I hope he is ready.
With Morrow as one of the 5 starters, I can understand the Jay's brass preferring the top 4, Reyes as #5, over Litsch, at this moment , since he has done reasonably but not lights out so far this year.
When healthy & given the opportunity IMO Litsch, Zep & Janssen have had enough success to have ML jobs. I feel that B Mills also will have similar success, he has done well at LV over 2+ years and deserves a ML opportunity.

IMO AA is experimenting, testing & developing his ML pitching at the expense of wins. I don't like this philosophy because it causes me pain.
I have to try to be smart and accept that to win in the AL East a team has to win 96 games and play a lopsided schedule. Lastly AA has not tried to snow us into thinking we can win in 2010, 2011 or even 2012.
I hope this year we can win a decent number of games (83-93), because that will be enjoyable. I find it fascinating that if Morrow comes back in April he will make 17 pitchers on the 25 man so far this year. AA is playing games inside games IMO.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#233168) #

My immediate reaction is that this sucks, because I've always liked Jesse Litsch, and Reyes reminds me of David Purcey except for the fact that I've never seen Reyes pitch a good game.

But what the heck - I'll give the Jays the benefit of the doubt, because if Reyes ever becomes half as good as people think he should be, he'd be a pretty good pitcher.

I just hope it doesn't go on for too long. And maybe, while they're experimenting, the Jays can start a new promotion at the Dome: Not Trying To Win Night. Buy one ticket to a Jo-Jo Reyes start, receive one free ticket for a game in 2012.

krose - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#233169) #

Good article over at Jays Journal regarding the issue of who should be sent to AAA. http://jaysjournal.com/

Be sure to read mat germain's reply to the article.

Lee John - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#233171) #

Lyle,

2. Litsch is a fine pitcher, but we are not winning the world series with him in our rotation.... sorry...

So, you don't think Litsch would be at least a solid back-end guy on a championship club? That is an awfully harsh evaluation. I can think of several WS winners of recent vintage who had pitchers much worse than Litsch take 30+ turns for them. Look, I acknowledge being maybe a little higher on the guy than is justified, but I do think he could easily be a significant contributor to the next Jays team to make a serious run in the postseason.

vw_fan17 - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#233188) #

krose - I'm a little skeptical of those comments when his 2012 rotation predictions don't include Kyle Drabek (and no explanation as to why not)....

bpoz - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#233204) #

Cybercavalier,
i am not sure I understood you correctly. But I think you said that you predicted or thought it would be a good idea to trade Purcey for Farquar. I do remember the R Buddie interest earlier in the year.

Well somehow you read the future. So that is incredible.

However MY baseball thinking is suspect, I thought that Purcey should have been given more time, to me his 2011 was promising based on his decent 2010 with long periods of inactivity. But it seems that there is no room for him in a 9 man pen. I really liked Farquar, so I am glad he is back, he has potential and there is time for him to fulfill it.

I don't know enough about other teams hot prospects to make guesses eg A Gose. But I do have a wish list of sorts... One guy is P Aumont who is in the Phillies organization in AA ball, IMO an underachiever with high upside, has to be put on their 40 man after 2011, maybe we can get him for a reliever that the Phillies can use down the stretch. This is the type of move I see AA making, he & everyone knows that there will be buyers at the deadline eg picture this Carlos V is doing really well this year going into the trade deadline, it is probably a career year for him so there will be interest. Some team gambles & he helps them and then goes back to being his usual self (a guy fighting for a spot in the Brewers pen). Everyone wins.

TamRa - Wednesday, April 20 2011 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#233220) #

.Downs greatly defied the odds turning into something from nothing.

I'm of the opinion that this is an overly negative reading of the odds. Everything in baseball is "against the odds" to an extent, and yes, most of the time when a guy seems to fail, he turns out to be, yes, a failure.

but it's not like it's a once in a generation feat either.

uglyone - Thursday, April 21 2011 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#233232) #

Sometimes I get to thinking that we just demoted our #3 starter.

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