Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 13 April 2011: Perfect Day for a Quiet Friend

13 April 2011: Perfect Day for a Quiet Friend

In the NCAA basketball tournament, whenever an underdog gets down 8 points in a semi-away game and the crowd starts to stir, the commentators always say in ominous tones, "They're into the danger zone now." That's how I feel about today's matchup, with Toronto 5-6 and facing Boston and New York next. The Jays try to avoid an embarrassing sweep in the getaway game as Kyle Drabek takes on Jason Vargas.

Yesterday: Mariners 3, Jays 2. Big Michael Pineda bulldozes the Jays for seven innings until Edwin Encarnacion sparks a rally. Eventually, Corey Patterson hits a two-run single, steals second and ends up on third with one out, but Bautista pops out to no man's land and Patterson gets thrown out at the plate on a close play. Ricky Romero gallantly eats eight innings.

Today: John Farrell rolls out the Sunday lineup: Escobar, Patterson, Bautista, Rivera (LF), Nix, Arencibia (DH), Encarnacion (1B), McDonald (2B), Molina. It's a mental health day for Adam Lind, Aaron Hill and Travis Snider before the big trip to Boston this weekend. I think this is a pretty good idea against the competent, nondescript lefty, though with Rivera hitting cleanup I'd pencil Bautista in for at least 2 walks today. Probably would've batted Encarnacion or Nix fourth. I am looking forward to seeing how EE handles first. I've always been optimistic.

Jays and Mariners, 3:35, Jays -125.

Posted by Alex Obal on Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 03:19 PM EDT.

13 April 2011: Perfect Day for a Quiet Friend | 35 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

China fan - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#232684) #

In his decision to bat Rivera in the clean-up slot, Farrell may be playing the small-sample numbers game again. In 19 ABs against Vargas over the past 5 years, Rivera is hitting an impressive .316 with two home runs. Not sure if that should really outweigh his abysmal numbers in another small sample: the 30 ABs of his 2011 season so far.

But here's another number: the $5.25-million salary that the Jays owe to Rivera this year. I suppose the Jays want to get something from that last number.

Magpie - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#232685) #

Patterson gets thrown out at the plate on a close play.

I think we all expected it to be a close play, but it wasn't. He was out by a mile. Very nice play by Smoak, to wheel and fire a strike to the plate.

christaylor - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#232686) #

Carlos Delgado, the greatest Blue Jay hitter, retires. Memories and nostalgia are on tap for today day.

Alex Obal - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#232687) #

Magpie's right. I thought he was going to be out by 15 miles, and he was only out by one. Close is relative for me.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#232688) #

I think all the Jays want from Rivera is just enough performance so some desperate GM will take him and his 5+Millions to let Lawrie come up and dazzle.

Not enough being made of Romero's game. I thought he was wonderful - and the way he bore down late was great to watch. The guy is a real keeper!

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#232690) #

It's a small thing, but you really don't want Corey Patterson batting second against a lefty. For his career, Patterson is .235/.267/.366 against LHPs.

Kelekin - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#232691) #

Speaking of Lawrie - he JUST allowed 2 runs to score on one of the silliest errors I've seen recently. Easy ground ball, and he missed it completely.

dan gordon - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#232693) #

The Blue Jays are, as of the moment, in the weakest division in baseball according to the total W-L percentage of the 6 divisions. Been a long time since they've been in that situation.

I heard Farrell interviewed today on The Fan and he said he was about to go into a meeting to discuss Morrow. They are actually considering calling him up for Sunday's start vs Boston despite the fact that he only went 3 innings in yesterday's rehab start. Frankly, I think he needs at least 1 and probably 2 more rehab starts. He also said Francisco's velocity has been getting back up to where it should be.

On Rotoworld, there's a comment that the Dallas Morning News is reporting that Texas is about to sign Cuban OF Leonys Martin for a bonus of approx $15 million and that he could be with the big league club before the end of the season.

China fan - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#232696) #

Just looking at the video of Escobar's latest base-running blunder. He hit the ball down the RF line and assumed that it was slicing foul, so he took two steps and stood and watched. If it hadn't bounced into the stands for a ground-rule double, he could have been thrown out at 1B, as Wilner correctly notes in his Twitter feed.

It will be interesting to see what Farrell does with Escobar's laziness on the bases. He's tried to get Bautista to talk to him, but that hasn't worked. Nothing seems to work. Do the Jays just accept it and tolerate it as the foibles of a supremely talented player? Do they bench him, fine him, reprimand him, talk to him -- or do nothing? What happens when it costs the Jays a game?

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#232698) #

Keep trying with Jose. The message ought to be something like this:

"Y'know, Lenny, twice now you haven't taken off from the box like you should. The first time you thought you had an easy homer, and it barely went out. The second time you thought that the ball was going foul and it didn't, but (lucky for you) bounced into the stands. The next time you won't be so lucky, and the new manager is going to have to do something. Run, man. "

Ryan Day - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#232700) #

When he's hitting .407 (or something closer to his career numbers), I suppose everyone just has to take the good with the bad. But if he struggles like he did last year, I'd expect to see some benchings, or maybe even another trade.

rfan8 - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#232701) #

Kasi - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#232702) #

It's how pitchers are approaching him. It's going to be hard for him to hit a lot for power with how he's being pitched to. I imagine he might only hit for 20-30 home runs this year. However I think he will have a high average and a huge walk rate. I could see him going something like .290/.410 with a 25/100 line.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#232703) #

and that he could be with the big league club before the end of the season.

There's actually discussion on local DFW radio media that he could be up damn near immediately if he shows Ianything at Frisco or wherever they send him to get in game shape.

Getting your MVP cleanup hitter hurt andout for two months will do that to a team ...

Kasi - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#232704) #

Also the Jay's inconsistent offense is going to hurt them this year. Some days they'll be on and win blowouts, but often they'll get beat 2-1 and 3-2. Bautista and Escobar are the only 3 right now I feel good about giving consistent performances. Snider, Lind and Arencibia have talent, but they're not good night in and night out.

Davis is okay and I have no trust in Rivera or Hill or the rest of the bench. Well I think Macdonald is a fine backup IF. He's done pretty well offensively the last couple years there.

If next year we can get a couple more players in. Perhaps Lawrie up from AAA, a better backup like Thames in as a 4th OF and then one good free agent signing to back up what we already have, we could be really dangerous. But for now we're going to have a lot of wasted pitching performances.

Kasi - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#232705) #

Oops no edit function. Bautista and Escobar are the only 2 I feel good about. And Lind, Encarnacion, Snider and Arencibia will be okay but streaky. The rest can go for all I care.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#232712) #

Encarnacion looks rather comfortable at first base.

I hope Farrell learned a bullpen usage lesson from these first 12 games. Despite the day off yesterday and tomorrow and a relatively fresh 8 man bullpen we saw Rzepczynski come out to start 2 additional innings and Rauch one.

I assume Mills will be sent down for a position player now.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#232719) #

Bautista now on pace for a .353 average, 41 HR, 0 2B, 135 BB and 135 K. Sounds reasonable to me.

Those are actually MVP numbers, except for the case of the mysteriously missing doubles. Which makes me wonder: what hitter had the fewest doubles in a 40+ HR season? George Bell did pretty well in that department, with 47 HR and 39 BB in 1987. Of course, he was also HBP seven times, evoking memories of flying karate kicks at the pitcher. Hey, why doesn't anyone do that anymore?

TamRa - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#232720) #

my guess regarding Esco is that the next logical step would be pressure applied by other players within the clubhouse. Bautista has the respect to transition from "let me help you out friend" to "Let me set you straight buddy" if/as/when.

That comes before Farrell gets into it, IMO

Chuck - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#232724) #

Those are actually MVP numbers, except for the case of the mysteriously missing doubles.

Bautista's line is 353/500/618. That's an MVP season, even if he never hits another double.

Which makes me wonder: what hitter had the fewest doubles in a 40+ HR season?

Harmon Killebrew had a season of 11/49. Dave Kingman had a season of 9/37. These were just two slow guys who came to mind. There may well be stranger ones than these.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#232727) #

Just realized I was counting BB when I should have been counting 2B. Thanks for pointing out Killebrew and Kingman. On a whim, I just checked the stats for Cecil Fielder and Frank Thomas. FYI: Thomas had 11 doubles and 39 HR in 2006.

Chuck - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#232728) #

It will be interesting to see what Farrell does with Escobar's laziness on the bases.

I don't think anyone disagrees that something has to be done. But one imagines that Escobar's numbers are going to have to drop considerably from the current 438/512/688 before he finds himself in Farrell's cross hairs.

The_Game - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#232729) #

They're not going to trade one of the most talented shortstops in baseball away because he doesn't run hard out of the box occasionally.

It's not a big deal. In fact, it's not worth worrying about at all.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#232730) #

Given that the Atlanta players reportedly gave Alex Gonzalez a round of applause after he arrived (presumably out of relief at being free of Junel), I'm guessing that it's in the Jays' interest to keep its SS from raising his teammates' ire by playing too casually. But who knows - his mates might not really care all that much, especially if Escobar demonstrates that he's generally a hard worker, enthusiastic, high-performing, etc. Still, if I'm AA, I'm communicating regularly with Bautista about communicating (tactfully) with Escobar about playing the game the right way.

VBF - Wednesday, April 13 2011 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#232732) #

It's how pitchers are approaching him. It's going to be hard for him to hit a lot for power with how he's being pitched to.

Bautista was just as scary to opposing pitchers on April 1st as he was last July, August, and September. I think we're selling advanced scouts pretty short here...

I also don't think pitchers solely have the option of throwing a pitcher a strike or a ball. Starting pitchers aren't always going 100%. They take a little bit off to allow them to pitch deeper into games. So he might be getting just as many strikes as before, it's just that pitchers are putting alot more effort into what they're throwing to him. But again, I think a lot of this would have happened sometime during last season when they realized Bautista had become a monster.

dfp - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#232733) #

Sorry not sure how to link this properly, but the following link has table of seasons where hitters had at least 3 times as many homers as doubles (min 20 hrs):

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9802

The_Game - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#232734) #

That's nice for the Braves. Really happy for them. But they lost an All-Star caliber shortstop.

hypobole - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 01:23 AM EDT (#232736) #

I have a vague recollection of EE not running out a ball last year that he would have easily beaten out if he had simply run. Shortly after, he was sent to Vegas. This year he's hustling and has twice made it to 1st safely on bobbles simply by running all the way (actually would be 3 times, but for the Davidson call). Maybe it's Edwin who should have a chat with Yunel also. I only heard it on the radio, but it sounds as if Rivera had a ball that was bobbled today that he should have beaten out, if not for the fact he jogged out of the box, about a week after he was spoken to about his jogging into 2nd on a DP ball. Yunel is a critical part of the team and is producing which may cut him some slack as far as repercussions, but when you're not contributing at the plate or on the field, you better be hustling at all times. I'm guessing (actually hoping) that we won't be seeing Mr. Rivera get much playing time from here on.

TamRa - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#232739) #

Ya know, I'm not watching the game - but if the reviews I'm hearing are accurate, i wouldn't be stunned if the jays simply say "screw it" and eat the rest of the contract and DFA Rivera when Lawrie is ready. If not before. Seems like dude would have to be a drag on the team, stats aside.

scottt - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#232741) #

It's only April. Rivera will get in gear eventually. I don't think he survives May with a line like that.

Anders - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#232757) #

Does Jose look different to you this year? He appears to be turning on the ball less and not hitting it solidly. Could be a timing issue because of the missed games but even before then I thought he seemed to have changed somewhat. I know he's seeing less to actually hit and more breaking balls outside but I keep wondering if it may be a change in overall approach.

I've seen about half of Jose's plate appearances this year, and I would say that he's just being pitched around even more. He's been thrown the 5th fewest strikes of any player in baseball (small sample size alert) and is the top 10 in terms of fewest pitches swung at. It's early, and these things may change, but if they keep going I expect Bautista will walk more than the 100 times he did last year. A lot more.

uglyone - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#232758) #

"Bautista now on pace for a .353 average, 41 HR, 0 2B, 135 BB and 135 K. Sounds reasonable to me"

well, to be 100% accurate, we have to take into account that he's missed 1/4 of our games so far (3/12).

If we pace him out to 159 games, he's actually on pace for 53hr, 212h, 177bb, 177k.

Ryan Day - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#232760) #

He's also on pace to have 12 more babies. That's going to take a toll on the guy. (to say nothing of his wife)

Thomas - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#232769) #

Ryan, that's possibly my favourite "on pace" projection ever.

Magpie - Thursday, April 14 2011 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#232799) #

He's also on pace to have 12 more babies.

This ain't the NBA.

13 April 2011: Perfect Day for a Quiet Friend | 35 comments | Create New Account

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