Yesterday
was hitters, today it's pitching and defense. Tomorrow? You'll have to
wait and see (I predict it's our annual concession stand preview, but
I've been wrong before.)
Which Brandon Morrow shows up - April and May (11 G, 57 IP, 66/34 K/BB, 6.00 era) or June onwards (15 G, 89.1 IP, 112/32 K/BB, 3.53 era)?
Dave Rutt: Morrow’s xFIP (3.48) was a full run lower than his ERA (4.49), so he’s already an excellent pitcher even without a step forward, which is certainly a possibility given his second-half.
Matthew E: I’m optimistic about Morrow. I think he’s for real. He might even get better.
Alex Obal: Good Morrow. He improved his touch and confidence, right? As long as he doesn’t get bombed back to the cretaceous period in April, I see no reason to expect that the changes didn’t stick with him. If he stays healthy, he could be Mark Prior. And if he gets hurt, well...
Gerry: I will pile onto the bus, good Morrow will show up guided by Jose Molina.
Thomas: The success of multiple of my fantasy teams depends, at least in part, on Brandon Morrow’s second-half emergence. I’m a believer.
Anders: I’m bullish on Morrow (is that the good one? Bearish? No wonder we got into this financial mess) in 2011 - he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and if he can keep his walks down, watch out.
Kyle Drabek - Great Rookie or Greatest Rookie? Show your work.
Gerry: I think he will have his ups and downs. Baseball is a game of adjustments and that usually is what gets the rookies, they are slower to see the patterns and adjust. Last season Drabek was too careful and he came into the league throwing his curveball in the dirt, that worked in AA but not so much in the majors. He knows now he needs to keep it up and that has helped him this spring. I think he might start strong but then be forced into some adjustments during the season.
Matthew E: I’m optimistic about Drabek… in the long run. In the short run he might not look so impressive, and may very well be sent down to Vegas for seasoning.
Obal: I have no idea. (“Okay, so put you down for greatest?” *fumble fumble don’t get the joke*) He certainly has the stuff, and it looks like he has the poise. He didn’t overpower minor-league hitters with strikeouts. Was he simply trying to win games, or does he really struggle to finish hitters off? My intuition is it’s the former. We’ll all be watching his K, BB and GB rates closely.
Anders: Great rookie. In that he makes it through the year intact. I’d settle for a debut year like Romero’s.
DR: I don’t know the first thing about scouting, but I remember being blown away by Drabek’s stuff in his debut last year. He had this fastball that seemed to move in on right-handers so much I couldn’t really believe it. So I think he’ll be good this year, probably based on completely misguided ideas.
Thomas: I agree with the consensus again. Look, if you want a contrarian for the sake of it, go somewhere else. Drabek will have good and bad moments. There’ll be nights when everything of his is working and he looks like quite good and he’ll mix in starts where he struggles to throw pitches for strikes and last 5 innings.
The Jays bullpen is made up of a bunch of new faces, including three "proven" veterans in Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco, who join old favourites such as Shawn Camp, David Purcey and Jason Frasor. Who gets the most saves, and what are your impressions of the group as a whole?
Gerry: This is an injury call in some ways. If Francisco gets back soon and stay healthy then he is the answer. Rauch is a good second choice.
DR: It’s deep, which is important now that a couple guys are on the shelf. Should be an effective rotating cast.
Matthew E: Perfectly reasonable bullpen, just like the Jays usually have. My dark horse candidate for closer is David Purcey.
Thomas: Francisco will be the closer, barring further health issues. I like the bullpen, but I do think the depth may cause the Jays to lose an arm during the season due to waivers that they’d have preferred to keep. The interesting thing will be to see how AA sorts through the options as the season progresses and injuries and under-performance rear their heads.
Anders: Well, I think F-Squared is the “Proven Closer™”, so he leads in saves. I think the corps as a whole will be slightly better than year, when they were in the middle of the pack in ERA and FIP.
Obal: Most saves will go to either Rauch or Francisco – Rauch if he dominates early and makes displacing him look like a bad idea, Francisco otherwise. If Francisco gets healthy quickly this looks like an excellent unit. Watch out for Marc Rzepczynski – for all we know he’s got the best stuff in the bullpen.
While at one point it looked like the defense was going to change significantly, it now appears the main differences will be Davis instead of Wells in CF, Lind instead of Overbay at 1B, and Arencibia and Molina instead of Buck and Molina behind the dish. How does this alter the team's overall performance? Will Adam Lind make us think back wistfully on the Carlos Delgado defensive era?
Thomas: I have no recollection of Davis in the field, but I anticipate he’ll be an upgrade over Wells. I’m not sure there’ll be a big difference at catcher, as Molina will play more than he did last year, unless there are some unexpected issues with how Arencibia handles the pitching staff. I think the presence of Wakamatsu will help this concern. The bigger issue is Lind at first; EE’s throws are sometimes white-knuckle rides and Escobar has a occasional tendency to get lazy in the field.
Matthew E: I don’t even really know if Davis is better than Wells in centre, although I’m willing to accept it as a working theory. Overall I think the defense will be about the same as last year, and Lind will be acceptable at first.
DR: If the reports of EE looking good at first are true, and Lind continues to not hit, I could see Eddie taking over at first. But that will barely affect the team defense (and even then we don’t know exactly how), so yeah, what Matthew said.
Gerry: We haven’t seen Davis play in CF but let’s assume his younger legs give us a small pickup. The catching situation will be close to a wash, maybe a shade less than last season, offsetting the Davis/Wells switch. Lind will be worse than Overbay, he has to be, a rookie fielder vs an established veteran. I think Overbay’s defense might have been over-valued by the Toronto media but Lind will probably screw up on which balls to take and which to leave for the second baseman or the pitcher. I don’t think Lind will be a disaster but he has to learn how to play the position at a major league level.
Obal: No clue on Lind, Arencibia, Davis or Rivera. I always thought Encarnacion would be an excellent first baseman – he has the range and reflexes, he just looks really awkward and can’t throw (at all). As it is, EE throwing to Adam Lind at first does not fill me with confidence. Escobar and Hill are both very competent and should end up comfortably above average.
Anders: I’m not optimistic about Lind at first - he’s terrible in MLB The Show 11.
The Blue Jays allowed 728 runs last year, good for 19th best in baseball (9th in the AL). Does that number increase, decrease, or stay the same, and by how much?
Anders: Well, like I said in yesterday’s thread, I think more runs are going to be scored overall, so lets say the Jays allow 740, which keeps them about in place.
DR: 19th best in baseball? Really? I thought the pitching was good last year. I guess it’s the AL East effect? Anyway, the loss of Marcum will hurt, so the runs allowed total will go up a bit.
Obal: This looks like an average run prevention unit. The runs allowed will go up a bit. My bold prediction: led by the improved bullpen, the pitching staff’s WPA will go up, too.
Gerry: Sophomore pitchers can break your heart and I will say we will see some regression. On the other hand the bullpen has some issues last season so lets assume they are a little better. I will say the Jays allow 750 runs this season.
Thomas: Better in some areas, worse in others. Up to 747 runs.
Matthew E: It increases by a little bit, say to 743 runs. I think we’re due for some of these young pitchers to get hurt, take a step back, or both. Mostly because everything went so great in 2010; it can’t last.
Which Brandon Morrow shows up - April and May (11 G, 57 IP, 66/34 K/BB, 6.00 era) or June onwards (15 G, 89.1 IP, 112/32 K/BB, 3.53 era)?
Dave Rutt: Morrow’s xFIP (3.48) was a full run lower than his ERA (4.49), so he’s already an excellent pitcher even without a step forward, which is certainly a possibility given his second-half.
Matthew E: I’m optimistic about Morrow. I think he’s for real. He might even get better.
Alex Obal: Good Morrow. He improved his touch and confidence, right? As long as he doesn’t get bombed back to the cretaceous period in April, I see no reason to expect that the changes didn’t stick with him. If he stays healthy, he could be Mark Prior. And if he gets hurt, well...
Gerry: I will pile onto the bus, good Morrow will show up guided by Jose Molina.
Thomas: The success of multiple of my fantasy teams depends, at least in part, on Brandon Morrow’s second-half emergence. I’m a believer.
Anders: I’m bullish on Morrow (is that the good one? Bearish? No wonder we got into this financial mess) in 2011 - he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and if he can keep his walks down, watch out.
Kyle Drabek - Great Rookie or Greatest Rookie? Show your work.
Gerry: I think he will have his ups and downs. Baseball is a game of adjustments and that usually is what gets the rookies, they are slower to see the patterns and adjust. Last season Drabek was too careful and he came into the league throwing his curveball in the dirt, that worked in AA but not so much in the majors. He knows now he needs to keep it up and that has helped him this spring. I think he might start strong but then be forced into some adjustments during the season.
Matthew E: I’m optimistic about Drabek… in the long run. In the short run he might not look so impressive, and may very well be sent down to Vegas for seasoning.
Obal: I have no idea. (“Okay, so put you down for greatest?” *fumble fumble don’t get the joke*) He certainly has the stuff, and it looks like he has the poise. He didn’t overpower minor-league hitters with strikeouts. Was he simply trying to win games, or does he really struggle to finish hitters off? My intuition is it’s the former. We’ll all be watching his K, BB and GB rates closely.
Anders: Great rookie. In that he makes it through the year intact. I’d settle for a debut year like Romero’s.
DR: I don’t know the first thing about scouting, but I remember being blown away by Drabek’s stuff in his debut last year. He had this fastball that seemed to move in on right-handers so much I couldn’t really believe it. So I think he’ll be good this year, probably based on completely misguided ideas.
Thomas: I agree with the consensus again. Look, if you want a contrarian for the sake of it, go somewhere else. Drabek will have good and bad moments. There’ll be nights when everything of his is working and he looks like quite good and he’ll mix in starts where he struggles to throw pitches for strikes and last 5 innings.
The Jays bullpen is made up of a bunch of new faces, including three "proven" veterans in Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco, who join old favourites such as Shawn Camp, David Purcey and Jason Frasor. Who gets the most saves, and what are your impressions of the group as a whole?
Gerry: This is an injury call in some ways. If Francisco gets back soon and stay healthy then he is the answer. Rauch is a good second choice.
DR: It’s deep, which is important now that a couple guys are on the shelf. Should be an effective rotating cast.
Matthew E: Perfectly reasonable bullpen, just like the Jays usually have. My dark horse candidate for closer is David Purcey.
Thomas: Francisco will be the closer, barring further health issues. I like the bullpen, but I do think the depth may cause the Jays to lose an arm during the season due to waivers that they’d have preferred to keep. The interesting thing will be to see how AA sorts through the options as the season progresses and injuries and under-performance rear their heads.
Anders: Well, I think F-Squared is the “Proven Closer™”, so he leads in saves. I think the corps as a whole will be slightly better than year, when they were in the middle of the pack in ERA and FIP.
Obal: Most saves will go to either Rauch or Francisco – Rauch if he dominates early and makes displacing him look like a bad idea, Francisco otherwise. If Francisco gets healthy quickly this looks like an excellent unit. Watch out for Marc Rzepczynski – for all we know he’s got the best stuff in the bullpen.
While at one point it looked like the defense was going to change significantly, it now appears the main differences will be Davis instead of Wells in CF, Lind instead of Overbay at 1B, and Arencibia and Molina instead of Buck and Molina behind the dish. How does this alter the team's overall performance? Will Adam Lind make us think back wistfully on the Carlos Delgado defensive era?
Thomas: I have no recollection of Davis in the field, but I anticipate he’ll be an upgrade over Wells. I’m not sure there’ll be a big difference at catcher, as Molina will play more than he did last year, unless there are some unexpected issues with how Arencibia handles the pitching staff. I think the presence of Wakamatsu will help this concern. The bigger issue is Lind at first; EE’s throws are sometimes white-knuckle rides and Escobar has a occasional tendency to get lazy in the field.
Matthew E: I don’t even really know if Davis is better than Wells in centre, although I’m willing to accept it as a working theory. Overall I think the defense will be about the same as last year, and Lind will be acceptable at first.
DR: If the reports of EE looking good at first are true, and Lind continues to not hit, I could see Eddie taking over at first. But that will barely affect the team defense (and even then we don’t know exactly how), so yeah, what Matthew said.
Gerry: We haven’t seen Davis play in CF but let’s assume his younger legs give us a small pickup. The catching situation will be close to a wash, maybe a shade less than last season, offsetting the Davis/Wells switch. Lind will be worse than Overbay, he has to be, a rookie fielder vs an established veteran. I think Overbay’s defense might have been over-valued by the Toronto media but Lind will probably screw up on which balls to take and which to leave for the second baseman or the pitcher. I don’t think Lind will be a disaster but he has to learn how to play the position at a major league level.
Obal: No clue on Lind, Arencibia, Davis or Rivera. I always thought Encarnacion would be an excellent first baseman – he has the range and reflexes, he just looks really awkward and can’t throw (at all). As it is, EE throwing to Adam Lind at first does not fill me with confidence. Escobar and Hill are both very competent and should end up comfortably above average.
Anders: I’m not optimistic about Lind at first - he’s terrible in MLB The Show 11.
The Blue Jays allowed 728 runs last year, good for 19th best in baseball (9th in the AL). Does that number increase, decrease, or stay the same, and by how much?
Anders: Well, like I said in yesterday’s thread, I think more runs are going to be scored overall, so lets say the Jays allow 740, which keeps them about in place.
DR: 19th best in baseball? Really? I thought the pitching was good last year. I guess it’s the AL East effect? Anyway, the loss of Marcum will hurt, so the runs allowed total will go up a bit.
Obal: This looks like an average run prevention unit. The runs allowed will go up a bit. My bold prediction: led by the improved bullpen, the pitching staff’s WPA will go up, too.
Gerry: Sophomore pitchers can break your heart and I will say we will see some regression. On the other hand the bullpen has some issues last season so lets assume they are a little better. I will say the Jays allow 750 runs this season.
Thomas: Better in some areas, worse in others. Up to 747 runs.
Matthew E: It increases by a little bit, say to 743 runs. I think we’re due for some of these young pitchers to get hurt, take a step back, or both. Mostly because everything went so great in 2010; it can’t last.
