With
the season kicking off in a few days, let's ask and answer a few
questions about how the Jays offense will perform in 2011.
Who is due for a bigger rebound year, Aaron Hill or Adam Lind? Both? Neither? And why?
Matthew E: I’ll guess that Lind will bounce back bigger. I think he’s more of a legitimate power hitter and I expect him to start acting like it.
Dave Rutt: Hill, by a mile. I looked at both of their seasons after 2010 ended, and while both players have legitimate concerns as evidenced by their dismal 2010 lines, Hill’s struggles seemed to be much more luck-based. Lind, on the other hand, regressed terribly in terms of K/BB, and can’t hit lefties at all.
John Northey: Lind I’m betting on. Mainly because it is more important for his bat to come around than Hill’s, at least as far as their respective careers are concerned. Also if he has too much trouble vs LHP I could see him being platooned which would artificially jump his rate numbers.
Gerry: Hill had a deeper low so he can bounce back more. I have more confidence in Lind to hit well. Lind got into some bad habits that are easier to fix. Hill’s weakness was his pulling everything, if Hill is willing to go to right field with the fastball away then he will have a better season.
Anders: I’m worried about both of them, to be frank - they were both pretty terrible last year. If I had to pick someone to rebound more, it would be Hill. It’s fairly evident why he struggled last year - he just hit a ton of fly balls, and if fly balls aren’t going out, they are almost always turned in to outs. If he can level out his swing (and he’s had a good spring), I think he can settle back into .280/.330/.450 territory. By contrast, Lind walked less and struck out more last year than he had the year prior, and the only notable difference was a dip in babip. He could hit .280/.330/.450 as well, but it would be much less of a success, on account of position/lack of defense/higher expectations.
Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs last year. Will he come close to repeating his 2010, either in total homers or overall performance?
Anders: I think Bautista will be just fine. He might hit 37 home runs instead of 54, but I suspect that overall, his average rises a bit, his slugging falls, and he is 5-10% worse overall with the bat.
Matthew E: He won’t even come close to coming close. I expect him to perform respectably for a major-league third baseman [now right fielder], but I predict he won’t clear 30 home runs.
Gerry: I am with Anders on this one. Bautista, like Hill last season, will have to handle the pitchers pitching away. Bautista is much more willing than Hill to take a walk and that should work to his advantage.
JN: I’m betting on 40 HR - but I am a known optimist. I also suspect his average will climb a bit.
Alex Obal: Nobody was pitching to him last year when he hit his 54 homers. I don’t think will have to change his approach at all. He may not be as locked in as he was in 2010, but I’ll still pencil him in for at least 40 homers, assuming good health.
With Cito Gaston gone but Dwayne Murphy remaining, do you expect the team's offensive approach to change at all?
Matthew E: What a good question. Depends on so many things. It depends on the players and how much they take their approach from the coach and manager, on Anthopoulos and how much he dictates such things, on Farrell and how much he dictates such things. I’m going to guess that the approach will change, just because last year’s offense was historically weird and therefore probably unrepeatable.
DR: I hope so, because no approach works for every player, and the team doesn’t have the exact same players as last year. The best hitting coaches should recognize this and not push their ideas on every player, even if it’s worked with most others.
Obal: Not really. They’re still going to be the same quick-strike team they were in 2010, which is a reasonable approach to take if you expect the 2010s to be the decade of the pitcher. Rajai Davis brings an extra speed dimension to the table, Brett Lawrie may contribute there as well, and if Juan Rivera sticks he’s the contact hitter the team didn’t have last year. But this is still a team full of players who are well-suited to playing longball. Why fight that?
JN: I expect more running, but the go for the fence approach will continue.
Gerry: No. Most of the hitters are the same and except for Hill and Lind they were successful in 2010. The only guys changing their approach are the guys who were broken in 2010. Otherwise it if ain’t broke.....
Anders: Well, yes and no. The team’s OBP should improve from bad to mediocre, but for the moment the team still seems jammed with medium average, low OBP sluggers - Hill, Encarnacion (who does walk a bit), Arencibia, Rivera, Lind perhaps. One thing’s for certain, they’ll hit a lot fewer home runs.
Is JP Arencibia ready for prime time?
Gerry: If he is not ready now when will he be. There is a lot to learn when you are a rookie major league catcher, see Wieters, Matt. Expect a slow start with a few bombs with better performance as the year goes along but as of today I would take a .230 ba with 20 home runs, assuming average defense.
Matthew E: Sort of. No matter what he does in the majors, there’s no point in sending him down again, because you need a catcher and he’s got nothing to prove at Las Vegas. If it turns out that he isn’t the guy and the Jays need a holding pattern for d’Arnaud or Perez, then it’s just as well to use Arencibia as the stopgap as to sign some external spare part.
JN: He is as ready as he’ll ever be. Nothing left to prove in AAA, lots to prove in the majors although having his first big game (that first game of his) helps a lot. He knows he can play, and that is one of the biggest roadblocks for young players. I expect a solid year with around 20 HR and a 250 average.
Anders: I agree with Gerry/John/Matthew - he’s got to play, might as well be now. If he hits 20 home runs and keeps his OBP above .310 with decent defense he’ll have some value, otherwise he’s filling space til Travis d’Arnaud or Carlos Perez get here.
DR: It’s easy to be dismissive of Las Vegas stats, but it’s also easy to forget just how good those stats were. JPA’s OPS last year at AAA was .986, with 79 extra-base hits in 459 PAs. If he had OPS’ed .886 instead, we’d be saying the same thing: “good year, but you can’t trust Vegas stats”. How good do they need to be to mean something? I think JPA’s ready and will not be a disaster, his 2010 cup of coffee notwithstanding.
Over/under on Rajai Davis steals - 47.5
Anders: Over. If he can get on base at all, I expect he’ll let loose.
Matthew E: I’ll take the under. What if he gets hurt? He could totally get hurt.
DR: Well, he’s only done that once in his MLB career, and only by 2.5. Then again, he’s only been a full-time player once. I’ll be the optimist and take the over, but under Dave Collins’ Jays record of 60.
Obal: If he starts 150 games, over. Since you’re not allowed to impose conditions like that, under. As long as Davis bats right in front of Yunel Escobar, it’ll be a winning proposition for him to try to get into scoring position.
Gerry: Under. Teams always talk things up in the spring and return to normal once the season starts. I say 35 steals.
JN: Over - lets see him reach 55.
The team scored 755 runs last year, good for 9th in baseball (6th in the AL). Will that go up, down, or stay the same, and by how much?
Anders: This one is a bit misleading (even though I wrote it), in that scoring in the Majors was very depressed last year - about ⅖ of a run less than any previous American League season in the last 15. I expect that runs will be up in general, but that the Jay’s offense won’t be any better - so let’s put them right back at 755, good for 8th in the AL.
Obal: I’m going to give a non-answer. I believe strongly in Jose Bautista’s improvement, and I also believe strongly in the value of a dominant hitter to anchor the offense. If he’s for real – and I think he is – the other guys in the heart of the order will do perfectly fine by osmosis.
Matthew E: It will go down by a little. Some things won’t work that worked last year, some others will work better. I’ll say 740 runs.
DR: My favourite offense estimate tool, the Lineup Analysis tool, projects about 770 runs using ZiPS projections. You can knock a few off for lost time, but throw a few back on for gaining the platoon advantage. 756 for me.
JN: I’ll go for up vs the majors and AL - 3rd in the AL. Lets say 800 runs. I like a lot of the changes and expect big things from Edwin after the kick in the pants he got last offseason.
Gerry: Down a little, less from J-Bau and catcher, more from Hill and Lind. I will go with Matthew and say 740.
Alright Bauxites - what are your thoughts, about these or any other questions relating to the team's bats?
Who is due for a bigger rebound year, Aaron Hill or Adam Lind? Both? Neither? And why?
Matthew E: I’ll guess that Lind will bounce back bigger. I think he’s more of a legitimate power hitter and I expect him to start acting like it.
Dave Rutt: Hill, by a mile. I looked at both of their seasons after 2010 ended, and while both players have legitimate concerns as evidenced by their dismal 2010 lines, Hill’s struggles seemed to be much more luck-based. Lind, on the other hand, regressed terribly in terms of K/BB, and can’t hit lefties at all.
John Northey: Lind I’m betting on. Mainly because it is more important for his bat to come around than Hill’s, at least as far as their respective careers are concerned. Also if he has too much trouble vs LHP I could see him being platooned which would artificially jump his rate numbers.
Gerry: Hill had a deeper low so he can bounce back more. I have more confidence in Lind to hit well. Lind got into some bad habits that are easier to fix. Hill’s weakness was his pulling everything, if Hill is willing to go to right field with the fastball away then he will have a better season.
Anders: I’m worried about both of them, to be frank - they were both pretty terrible last year. If I had to pick someone to rebound more, it would be Hill. It’s fairly evident why he struggled last year - he just hit a ton of fly balls, and if fly balls aren’t going out, they are almost always turned in to outs. If he can level out his swing (and he’s had a good spring), I think he can settle back into .280/.330/.450 territory. By contrast, Lind walked less and struck out more last year than he had the year prior, and the only notable difference was a dip in babip. He could hit .280/.330/.450 as well, but it would be much less of a success, on account of position/lack of defense/higher expectations.
Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs last year. Will he come close to repeating his 2010, either in total homers or overall performance?
Anders: I think Bautista will be just fine. He might hit 37 home runs instead of 54, but I suspect that overall, his average rises a bit, his slugging falls, and he is 5-10% worse overall with the bat.
Matthew E: He won’t even come close to coming close. I expect him to perform respectably for a major-league third baseman [now right fielder], but I predict he won’t clear 30 home runs.
Gerry: I am with Anders on this one. Bautista, like Hill last season, will have to handle the pitchers pitching away. Bautista is much more willing than Hill to take a walk and that should work to his advantage.
JN: I’m betting on 40 HR - but I am a known optimist. I also suspect his average will climb a bit.
Alex Obal: Nobody was pitching to him last year when he hit his 54 homers. I don’t think will have to change his approach at all. He may not be as locked in as he was in 2010, but I’ll still pencil him in for at least 40 homers, assuming good health.
With Cito Gaston gone but Dwayne Murphy remaining, do you expect the team's offensive approach to change at all?
Matthew E: What a good question. Depends on so many things. It depends on the players and how much they take their approach from the coach and manager, on Anthopoulos and how much he dictates such things, on Farrell and how much he dictates such things. I’m going to guess that the approach will change, just because last year’s offense was historically weird and therefore probably unrepeatable.
DR: I hope so, because no approach works for every player, and the team doesn’t have the exact same players as last year. The best hitting coaches should recognize this and not push their ideas on every player, even if it’s worked with most others.
Obal: Not really. They’re still going to be the same quick-strike team they were in 2010, which is a reasonable approach to take if you expect the 2010s to be the decade of the pitcher. Rajai Davis brings an extra speed dimension to the table, Brett Lawrie may contribute there as well, and if Juan Rivera sticks he’s the contact hitter the team didn’t have last year. But this is still a team full of players who are well-suited to playing longball. Why fight that?
JN: I expect more running, but the go for the fence approach will continue.
Gerry: No. Most of the hitters are the same and except for Hill and Lind they were successful in 2010. The only guys changing their approach are the guys who were broken in 2010. Otherwise it if ain’t broke.....
Anders: Well, yes and no. The team’s OBP should improve from bad to mediocre, but for the moment the team still seems jammed with medium average, low OBP sluggers - Hill, Encarnacion (who does walk a bit), Arencibia, Rivera, Lind perhaps. One thing’s for certain, they’ll hit a lot fewer home runs.
Is JP Arencibia ready for prime time?
Gerry: If he is not ready now when will he be. There is a lot to learn when you are a rookie major league catcher, see Wieters, Matt. Expect a slow start with a few bombs with better performance as the year goes along but as of today I would take a .230 ba with 20 home runs, assuming average defense.
Matthew E: Sort of. No matter what he does in the majors, there’s no point in sending him down again, because you need a catcher and he’s got nothing to prove at Las Vegas. If it turns out that he isn’t the guy and the Jays need a holding pattern for d’Arnaud or Perez, then it’s just as well to use Arencibia as the stopgap as to sign some external spare part.
JN: He is as ready as he’ll ever be. Nothing left to prove in AAA, lots to prove in the majors although having his first big game (that first game of his) helps a lot. He knows he can play, and that is one of the biggest roadblocks for young players. I expect a solid year with around 20 HR and a 250 average.
Anders: I agree with Gerry/John/Matthew - he’s got to play, might as well be now. If he hits 20 home runs and keeps his OBP above .310 with decent defense he’ll have some value, otherwise he’s filling space til Travis d’Arnaud or Carlos Perez get here.
DR: It’s easy to be dismissive of Las Vegas stats, but it’s also easy to forget just how good those stats were. JPA’s OPS last year at AAA was .986, with 79 extra-base hits in 459 PAs. If he had OPS’ed .886 instead, we’d be saying the same thing: “good year, but you can’t trust Vegas stats”. How good do they need to be to mean something? I think JPA’s ready and will not be a disaster, his 2010 cup of coffee notwithstanding.
Over/under on Rajai Davis steals - 47.5
Anders: Over. If he can get on base at all, I expect he’ll let loose.
Matthew E: I’ll take the under. What if he gets hurt? He could totally get hurt.
DR: Well, he’s only done that once in his MLB career, and only by 2.5. Then again, he’s only been a full-time player once. I’ll be the optimist and take the over, but under Dave Collins’ Jays record of 60.
Obal: If he starts 150 games, over. Since you’re not allowed to impose conditions like that, under. As long as Davis bats right in front of Yunel Escobar, it’ll be a winning proposition for him to try to get into scoring position.
Gerry: Under. Teams always talk things up in the spring and return to normal once the season starts. I say 35 steals.
JN: Over - lets see him reach 55.
The team scored 755 runs last year, good for 9th in baseball (6th in the AL). Will that go up, down, or stay the same, and by how much?
Anders: This one is a bit misleading (even though I wrote it), in that scoring in the Majors was very depressed last year - about ⅖ of a run less than any previous American League season in the last 15. I expect that runs will be up in general, but that the Jay’s offense won’t be any better - so let’s put them right back at 755, good for 8th in the AL.
Obal: I’m going to give a non-answer. I believe strongly in Jose Bautista’s improvement, and I also believe strongly in the value of a dominant hitter to anchor the offense. If he’s for real – and I think he is – the other guys in the heart of the order will do perfectly fine by osmosis.
Matthew E: It will go down by a little. Some things won’t work that worked last year, some others will work better. I’ll say 740 runs.
DR: My favourite offense estimate tool, the Lineup Analysis tool, projects about 770 runs using ZiPS projections. You can knock a few off for lost time, but throw a few back on for gaining the platoon advantage. 756 for me.
JN: I’ll go for up vs the majors and AL - 3rd in the AL. Lets say 800 runs. I like a lot of the changes and expect big things from Edwin after the kick in the pants he got last offseason.
Gerry: Down a little, less from J-Bau and catcher, more from Hill and Lind. I will go with Matthew and say 740.
Alright Bauxites - what are your thoughts, about these or any other questions relating to the team's bats?
