Rajai Davis in the entire 2010 season: 5 home runs.

Rajai Davis in a few weeks of 2011 spring training: 3 home runs already, plus 4 doubles.

If the Jays are actually succeeding in turning Davis into a power hitter, along with the speed and batting-average abilities that he already has, we could be looking at a very valuable player.  Alternatively, of course, he could be the next Fred Lewis.  We'll see.

Just on the power-hitting numbers:  Fred Lewis has never managed to hit more than 9 home runs in any season in his career.  Davis managed 5 last year, and he has 3 already in spring training, with Murphy claiming that Davis has a new swing and is much improved.  Even a modest improvement could get his HR total up to 10 to 15 this year, which would be more than Lewis managed in his whole career.

I'm not convinced that Rajai Davis trying to hit home runs would be a good thing. I see a lot of needless flyball outs and more strikeouts. I'd be much happier to see him trying to be more selective at the plate, like in 2009. Given his speed and track record, targetting his OBP for improvement would seem a more realistic and valuable goal than targeting his SLG.

Farrell may be a fan of Lawrie but it seems to me that Lawrie is headed to Vegas.   Lawrie has had one at-bat in each game this week.  Encarnacion got a start at third this week and Bautista's playing time has increased.   Lawrie is also hit-less for the week, in three at-bats.  I am not questioning Lawrie's abilities, I am saying that the club's actions, and the manager's actions, suggest Lawrie is not going to make this team.

Eric Thames is another player who has fallen off the wagon.  As of the middle of the Yankee game, Thames is one for his last fourteen and his batting average is down to .244.  Remember it is less than two weeks to opening day and the starters are now playing longer, and the better pitchers are getting more innings.  If a player wants to show he is major league ready the time to do it is in the last ten days of the spring.

Finally the battle between Jesse Litsch and Marc Rzepczynski is far from settled, neither have distinguished themselves, at least on the scoreboard.  We have to consider that there is an outside chance that neither of them makes the team and that Jo-Jo Reyes does.  Look for Reyes to get another longer outing next week.  I think I read that Brandon Morrow might skip the Yankees next week as he pitched against them today.  Rzep would be a logical guy to get that start, he and Morrow are on the same schedule.  But if Reyes gets it then that is a sign that he has a good chance to seal the spot with a strong start against the Yankees.

I think Zep has just about blown his chance at a rotation job, if he still had one.  He was scheduled for 4 innings today, but he lasted less than 3 innings, giving up 6 hits and 3 walks.  Litsch has had a few problems, but he's been a lot better than that.

Reyes is scheduled to go 6 innings in his next start, so technically he still has a shot at the rotation, but most analysts seem to think that he'll go to the bullpen instead.  Farrell really likes Litsch and seems set on having him in the rotation.  And let's face it, Litsch has far more major-league experience than Reyes.  I think it makes sense to put Reyes in the bullpen, but have him ready as a spot-starter if there are problems with Litsch or Drabek in the early weeks of the season.

....Rzep would be a logical guy to get that start, he and Morrow are on the same schedule....

Not really.  Morrow is up to 5 innings now, and he's starting games.  Zep is not starting, he's coming out of the bullpen, and he was scheduled for only 4 innings today (which he didn't make anyway).  I think the signals are pretty clear that Zep is not on track for a rotation job.  He might get another start in the spring, but I think Litsch and Reyes have clearly leaped ahead of Zep on the depth chart.

But if Davis is (say) a .240/.340/.420 hitter this year, that plays with good defense.

I agree entirely, but I have an awfully difficult time envisioning 100 points of walks. In 2009 and 2010, his isolated OBP (OBP minus AVG) was .055 and .036.

My fear would be a hacktastic 240/275/400 line... out of the leadoff spot.

Zep is not starting, he's coming out of the bullpen, and he was scheduled for only 4 innings today (which he didn't make anyway).  I think the signals are pretty clear that Zep is not on track for a rotation job.

I don`t have a view one way or another who is in the driver`s seat for the fifth starter role, but if Rzep didn`t hit his pitch count, he would have headed to the bullpen to get it up there.  Reyes headed to the bullpen after his recent three inning start.

Reyes has no options left while Litsch and Rzep do - that may be the deciding factor if someone isn`t clearly leading the chase.  Rzep seems to take longer to get his mechanics nailed down.

Here's a digression on that topic....I had a discussion with a friend a week or two ago about the Jays and he's a pretty casual, but intelligent, baseball fan and he was asking me where Jo-Jo Reyes came from. I told him he came over in the Escobar deal and he was surprised Toronto got a second player, so I explained the Jays also traded two prospects to the Braves, one of whom was an awesome relief prospect. So he tells me that relief prospects don't often pan out and are fungible. I agreed that was often the case, but explained that not only was Collins a good relief prospect, but he was also 5'7" and that his conclusion wasn't a reason to not make the trade, but that I wished the team could have kept him and dealt a different prospect.

He replied, "Why does it matter that he's 5"7" and sounded incredulous that I had mentioned this. I told him it doesn't matter with regards to his success, but that'd it be fun to root for a tiny reliever who throws in the low 90's and who would be the shortest pitcher in baseball. He wasn't interested in this point at all and I was completely unable to convey to him that, as a fan, watching Collins would be more fun that watching Wil Ledezma, even if they performed at roughly the same level (which I doubt).

It was bizarre. And was an unfortunate example of a little statistical knowledge run amok fulfilling the lazy "anti-Moneyball" argument about people having their head in a spreadsheet and not actually enjoying the game.

From the tweets, he has been playing CF, which is not an unusual switch for a SS.  I`d like to know if they feel he`s a natural at shortstop and that`s why they move him around to accomodate Goins and others, or if his defence is just too raw to think it can be refined.

A couple of days ago, I went back to minorleaugesplits and mined their database to see his monthly splits from 2008 (prior to the injuries in 2009 and 2010).  My recollection was that he hit very well for long periods of time during that year (and very poorly at other times) which bouyed my optimism that he could develop his bat.  This was his first full season of pro ball at lowA Lansing.  This is what I found:

Good Months (April, May, July):  266 ABs, .278/.438/.447 for an .885 OPS

Bad Months (June, Aug):  184 ABs, .185./.299/.255 for a .555 OPS

Take it for what it`s worth, but he`s a toolsy kid who`s still young, but will absolutely have to show something at Dunedin this year to have any sort of future.

Hechavarria will play SS at AA

Goins will play SS in Dunedin

I believe Pierre will play SS in Lansing.

Jackson doesn't have a SS job, unless he can jump ahead of Goins.  The OF move could be to get him regular at-bats and maybe to re-energize him.  His options look to be CF or 2B and if he can play CF that is more valuable than a 2B.

.....Lawrie and the way he ran out a routine grounder in the Yankees game. Guy sounds intense.....

Contrast this with Escobar, who -- just in the past couple weeks -- has twice been guilty of turning triples into doubles by trotting casually out of the box when he assumed his hits would be caught.  On one of those occasions, Bautista went over to him at the end of the inning and had a long serious talk with him.  (This according to tweets by the journalists who were covering the games.)

Accoring to www.mlbtraderumors.com and a recent article they unearthed, it looks like Brandon Wood will likely not make the Angels out of Spring Training unless Alberto Callaspo is dealt.  Wood is out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent down to Salt Lake.  The journalist figures that Wood's days in LA/Anaheim are done.  He hypothesizes that a team will likely claim him and goes on to mention Toronto as a possibility. 

Wood, of course, was once a heralded 3B prospect, who seemed destined to put up Troy Glaus type numbers.  He is 26 now, and has had several cracks at the Major Leagues. 

Here's an idea, claim Wood, send him north, his defense is solid so he wouldn't be a liability there, allow him to work with Dwayne Murphy for a couple months, and see what comes of that.  This allows Jose to move back to RF, sends Lawrie to AAA where he gets valuable reps at 3B.  If Wood bombs, send him back down and hope a change of scenery and coaching does the trick.  If he doesn't, you have an asset who could also presumably play first base and DH.  The dreaded AAAA tag has certainly been attached to Wood, but a change of scenery has done wonders for a number of "failed" prospects.