That seems somewhat conservative.

I'll go for higher from the team (and lower from Jedi). Top 10 is

1. Bautista - 40
2. EE - 29
3. Snider - 27
4. Hill - 26
5. Lind - 23
6. JPA - 17
7. Rivera - 14
8. Yunel - 9
9. Davis - 8
10. Lawrie - 6

Total: 228

203, led by:

Bautista-         48
Snider-            31
Encarnacion- 27
Lind-                23
Hill-                  18
Arencibia-       15
Rivera-            11
Escobar-          7
Davis-               6
(someone not currently in org)- 5

185

Bautista - 32
Lind - 26
Snider - 25
Hill - 22
EE - 19
Rivera - 14
JPA - 11
Yunel - 10
Davis - 7
Thames - 4

Bautista 38
Snider 29
Lind 26
Hill 24
Encarnacion 18
Arencibia 13
Rivera 11
Lawrie 8
Escobar 7
Davis 6

Just scanning the internets, I see that Marty Marion has passed on at age 93. Marion, one of the few men ever to win an MVP with his glove, was the shortstop for the great Cardinals' teams of the 1940s. He was an unusual shortstop for his day, when middle infielders were invariably the smallest guys on the diamond - at 6'2, Marion was bigger than Stan Musial.

Grim news from the Braves camp, where guest coach Luis Salazar has lost his eye after being hit with a line drive last week. Happily, all the other news on Salazar is extremely encouraging, and he hopes to return to the dugout in four to six weeks. You may recall that when he was initially hurt, they were initially fearing for his life, and then they were concerned about brain damage. Losing an eye is bad enough, but this could have been a lot worse.

At least Salazar doesn't work for the Los Angeles Clippers. In 2004, assistant coach Kim Hughes was diagnosed with prostate cancer. While he was covered under the club's plan, he wanted to pursue an immediate surgical option so he wouldn't miss the season. The Clippers wouldn't cover that. Hughes proceeded anyway, and was able to continue doing his job, as a Clippers coach. Then the bill came due... and some of his former players came to his rescue, including Elton Brand and Corey Maggette who don't even play for the Clippers anymore. Well done.

Total: 199

Jose Bautista  37
Travis Snider 32
Encarnacion 28
Adam Lind 28
Aaron Hill 19
JP Arencibia 18
Juan Rivera  8
Rajai  Davis 8
Yunel Escobar 5
Lawrie 4
Others: 12

Oops. They're going to hit 209 homers.

Sorry there's no other venue to ask this question. Is anyone else concerned with JPA's horrible spring?

Not me.  I usually expect that players with a hot spring start the year slowly and players who struggle start the year strong.

221 Home Runs Total

Bautista - 41
Lind - 32
Snider - 28
Hill - 24
EE - 23
JPA - 15
Lawrie - 13
Rivera - 11
Yunel - 8
Davis - 7

Okay, so I will take the out-and-out homerist prize for estimating homers.  I think you are all - all - way too conservative.  Does that make you defeatist?

• Bautista 45
• Encarnacion 35
• Snider 30
• Lind 30
• Hill 28
• Rivera 18
• Arencibia 15
• Davis 15
• Lawrie 10
• Escobar 6

Team as a total will hit 245

This is as high a number as I can put forward without getting laughed out of the Batter's Box; (I  know, it may happen anyway).  But give me a single malt scotch or two and ask me what I really think, I will tell you that Encarnacion, Snider, Lind and Jose Bautista could all materially outperform these predictions.  Rivera will hit on a pace for 30 for the year (in the Dome), but will get traded when he has about 18, just like Alex Gonzalez did, last year.  As it will be a high upside low minors prospect we get back, that person will not replace his bat, Lawrie will.  Davis at 15??  I hear you cry.  Yes, both he and EE have had the Dwayne Murphy laying on of hands, and they will each respond with a genuine power lift-off, just like JB, JB, AG, and JM achieved last year.  Snider will come into his own, and both Lind and Hill will have some bounceback, but not all the way to their peaks.

You first heard it here.

As I steadfast lurker but rarely a poster, I care little about the laughter that may ensue from the following:

Bautista - 50
Snider - 36
EE - 31
Lind - 29
Davis - 24
Hill - 19
JPA - 17
Rivera - 14
Escobar - 9
JMac - 6

Team total - 245

40 Jose Bautista
29 Adam Lind
24 Aaron Hill
23 Travis Snider
20 Edwin Encarnacion
18 J.P. Arencibia
11 Yunel Escobar
10 Eric Thames
8 Juan Rivera
7 Corey Patterson

Top 10: 190

6 Brett Lawrie
5 Rajai Davis
4 John McDonald
3 Jose Molina
2 Mike McCoy
1 Scott Podsednik

3 Others

Team total: 215


A suggested scoring system:

Score 1 point for every home run you predict for each player.
For each player subtact the difference in actual home runs above and below your guess.
If you predicted the exact number of homers the player would hit, add 10% of his count to your point total.
Team total is a tie-breaker.

It appears I'm the only one thus far to predict an early shuttle out of town for Juan Rivera and the subsequent emergence of Eric Thames.

Yup, looks like most of us are going with the shuttle out of town for Rivera and the emergence of Lawrie...

Elsewhere, Farrell is talking about assigning Jose Molina to the Kyle Drabek beat this season. Which means Morrow has graduated, I suppose!

One thing I know for sure:  Yunel Escobar will hit more than four homeruns.

Bautista 39
Encarnacion 34
Lind 32
Snider 28
Hill 24
Arencibia 17
Davis 12
Lawrie 11
Escobar 8
Rivera 7

Sorry, they'll also hit 223 in total.

Well, the AL median for home runs last year was 154, which the Gaston/RC Jays demolished. I'm not expecting the kind of home run show that others are - many of the predictions would still have led the league last year and likely would in 2011. So I"ll be a homer and put 35 on top of last year's median and predict 190, distributed as:

Encarnacion 31
Bautista 28
Snider 23
Lind 22
Hill 17
Rivera 17
Davis 15
Escobar 13
Molina 12
Lawrie 5

Others 7

1. Snider - 37
2. Bautista - 33
3. Lind - 32
4. Hill - 30
5. EE - 27
6. JPA - 16
7. Lawrie - 13
8. Rivera - 12
9. Yunel - 12
10. Patterson - 8


Total: 220

Sano, I'm predicting that Molina will be the starting catcher by mid-May. I'm at spring training watching the games, and I must say that Arencibia has shown not only offensive shortcomings but defensive ones as well. He doesn't have the bearing of a catcher in charge of the game, he misses pitches, his throw yesterday was ill-advised and off-target and cost two runs. His offense since he left LV, but for one game, has been almost completely absent. I read Marc Hulett's ranking at fangraphs and I must say, with all the respect that's due to Marc, it made me wonder to what extent he's seen him play.

220 was the total of those, not the team total...if McD, McC and Molina don't hit any that leaves Davis and any potential call ups..call it 7 more.

227

So I"ll be a homer and put 35 on top of last year's median and predict 190, distributed as...

I like your logic on the total much better than on the distribution... You're looking for Davis and Molina to hit home runs at triple and quadruple their respective career rates. And Arencibia to hit fewer than 5, after 34 last season between Vegas and Toronto?

Disregard my last - Johnny Mac and Molina deserve more respect - I'll make it 235

Bautista - 62
 Snider - 30
Lind - 25
EE --  25
Hill - 20
Rivera - 20
Escobar - 15
JPA 15
Davis 10
Molina 8

Team total 225

Well, let's see. I'll take the counterpoint here and err on the low side. But I think it could play out something like this:

Snider 35
Bautista 29
Lind 28
Hill 25
Encarnacion 25
Arencibia 15
Rivera 12
Davis 11
Escobar 9
Patterson 4

Total 197

I like your logic on the total much better than on the distribution... You're looking for Davis and Molina to hit home runs at triple and quadruple their respective career rates. And Arencibia to hit fewer than 5, after 34 last season between Vegas and Toronto?

Well, Arencibia I sort of explained in a subsequent post. I don't expect him to be the starting catcher for most of the year. And I don't see the transference of LV offense to the AL, even at the Rogers Centre, as easy as most. He could hit more than 5, but I'm not optimistic on Arencibia. He could of course, prove that I don't have a clue what I'm talking about.

Davis, for those who haven't seen him, is someone I think the fans will love. He plays hard and looks and plays excitement. My prediction may be a tad high, but I feel good about it.

Molina hit 6 homeruns in about 160 at bats last year and I think he'll get more this year. You're probably right that it's a tad high, as is my prediction on Rivera.

Well the offseason attempts by the FO to fortify the catching situation was not a ringing endorsement of Arencibia & Farrell has given off hints that he doesn't think that Molina is a backup but more likely a co-catcher, it looks like Molina will at least be catching Morrow & Drabek - it just seems to me that every indication is been given that Molina will do a lot more catching that most fans think.

I like Chris Davis as a buy low candidate to play 3rd this season - My previous post wasn't about Rivera going to Texas but that I think that both Frasor & Rivera are players the Jays are trying to move .

It seems Jo-Jo Reyes is ticketed for the BP, but he has an interesting start & opportunity tomorrow against the Phillies - hope he pitches well & keeps the debate open.  

 

It seems to me the main objective of the C position in 2011 should be to (1) ensure the proper development of the pitchers; and (2) see what Arencibia has to offer. In that order. Having Drabek, Morrow et al. continue to gain confidence and get close to fulfilling their potential is more important than ensuring that JP gets 500 AB and clongs 20+ HR.

1. Bautista 44
2. Encarnacion 32
3. Lind 28
4. Hill 27
5. Snider 26
6. Rivera 16
7. Arencibia 14
8. Escobar 11
9. Davis 8
10. Lawrie 7

Assuming Hill misses about 15 games, Snider misses about 20 games, Lawrie gets a callup to replace Snider (Bautista moving to OF) and then gets a later callup when Rivera is traded.  Assuming Rivera hits well, then gets dealt near the deadline.  Thinking Arencibia struggles for average, but hits enough HR's to play 110-120 games.

Molina, McDonald, Patterson and Podsednik hit a few.  Maybe Thames.  Total team HR's 227.

 

Bautista 41
Snider 30
Lind 27
Encarnacion 22
Hill 21
Escobar 13
Rivera 11
Arencibia 10
Molina 8
Davis 8

Others: 20
Total: 211

Fewer home runs, but more runs this year. Rivera traded, JPA struggles, Lawrie most of the year in Vegas.

Bautista - 43

Snider - 36

Lind - 34

Hill - 34

Encarnacion - 31

Rivera - 24

Arencibia - 21

Escobar - 13

Davis - 12

Patterson - 8

Top 10 = 256

Bautista 38
Lind 33
Encarnacion 29
Hill 25
Snider 23
Rivera 14
Escobar 12
Arencibia 9
Davis 9
Molina 5

Others: 15
Total: 212

I think my projections are very optimistic, but I am the only one who thinks Arencibia will hit more than 20 Hr's? Really? This guy has hit that many in every full season he has played. I know its a big step up to the Majors but even in his down year he hit 21. I dont think he is getting enough credit as a power hitter even though he is off to a slow start this year.

I am surprised at how many people are predicting Yunel to hit less than 10 HR's. To me, looking at his career to date, 2010 is clearly the abberation, at least in my most humble opinion.

Top 10 = 256

Waiter, I'll have what he's having.

Waiter, I'll have what he's having

Sir, in that case, the chef advises that you provide your sample prior to the meal in this bottle.  Bon appetit.

My best guess......

Bautista  29 (will lead the league in walks)

Lind  26  (will still struggle somewhat vs lefties)

Snider  24  (will continue to kill anything low and over the middle of the plate while struggling to square up inside/outside/high pitches)

Hill  19  (his average will rebound considerably)

Rivera  19 (before being traded)

J.P.  16  (most of his HR will be hit in the second half)

Davis 13

Encarnacion  9 (will lose his Job to Thames for hitting near the Mendoza Line....most of his HR will come from two 3-day hot streaks)

Thames  9 (will rake until pitchers adjust to him somewhat in 2012)

Escobar 8


TOP TEN: 172
OTHERS: 15 (beside Lawrie & maybe Patterson there isn't a lot of power outside of the top 10)
TOTAL: 187

I think Lawrie will get called up in June when someone gets injured, then we'll give him a full time gig by trading Rivera before the trade deadline.  Lawrie will hit a lot of doubles this year 

Bautista 36
Lind 27
Snider 27
Encarnacion 21
Hill 18
Arencibia 14
Rivera 13
Escobar 11
Molina 8
Davis 7

Total (with 18 from others): 199

The Baseball Project is back with a song in memory of Mark Fidrych and another "Ichiro goes to the moon".  They're obviously not pop masterpieces (Peter Buck for instance reached his peak in about 1986), but kinda fun anyways.

Bautista 43

Encarnacion 31

Lind 28

Snider 25

Hill 19

Rivera 15

Arencibia 14

Escobar 11

Molina 7

Davis 6

218 total

Bautista 36
Snider 28
Lind 26
Hill 23
Encarnacion 22
Arencibia 18
Escobar 14
Rivera 11
Lawrie 4
Molina 4

Team Total: 196

Bautista 37
Rivera 34
Snider 33
Hill 31
Lind 25
Encarnacion 25
Arencibia 17
Davis 11
Escobar 11
Molina 4

238

Bautista - 43
Snider - 39
Lind  -31
Hill - 18
Encarnacion - 24
Arencibia - 19
Escobar - 18
Rivera - 6
Lawrie - 14

Thames - 12

Davis - 7
Molina - 4

Team Total - 245

Bautista - 47
Snider - 34
Encarnacion - 32
Lind - 29
Hill - 27
Davis - 17
Rivera - 15
JPA - 15
Escobar - 10
Lawrie - 9
Team Total - 249

Bautista - 37

Snider - 35

Lind - 30

Hill - 25

Encarnacion - 24

Arencibia - 16

Rivera - 13

Escobar - 12

Davis - 4

Lawrie - 4

Bautista 32

Encarnacion 26

Snider 26

Lind 25

Hill 19

Arencibia 15

Escobar 14

Rivera 11

Davis 7

Cooper 4 (all in September)

I just don't see us hitting alot of HRs this year.

I think my projections are very optimistic, but I am the only one who thinks Arencibia will hit more than 20 Hr's? Really? This guy has hit that many in every full season he has played.

In my case I', deferring to the ideal that Molina will get something like 40% of the playing time at least n the first half. Or so Farrell seems to suggest.

I'm a day late , so I could be about to engage in a conversation with myself. I see a lot of really low expectations from a lot of people here. Aren't you guys homers? It's spring time - time to shoot for the sky. All those silly things called reality (injuries, underperformance, etc) haven't set in yet. My list is based on what I think each player can hit if healthy and performing near his potential. Bautista will drop, but he'll still hit a lot of homers. Lind is a 30 HR player. That doesn't mean he's going to hit 30 every year, but you should pencil him in for that in spring. Remember when Lind broke out in 2009? That is what Snider is going to do this year. He showed signs of it last year and he's ready. Don't temper your expectations for EE. He can't throw straight and he can't hit for average. But he can hit 10 homers in a single week. He's healthy and as long as he is getting those big hits, he'll get fairly regular playing time. JPA is also going to get regular playing time, unless he struggles really, really badly. With all that out of the way, here are my predicitons:

Team: 222

Bautista 41

Snider 35

Encarnacion 33

Lind 32

Hill 18

Rivera 15

Arencibia 15

Davis 10

Escobar 8

I'm not predicting for bench players, since I'm predicting on a best case scenario and so their playing time would be limited under such a model.

Maybe if we run more,we will see more fast balls. Without much confidence here are my numbers.

Encarnacion 43
Bautista 41
Snider 37
Lind 31
Hill 19
Rivera 23
Davis 11
Escobar 15
Arencibia 22 if 400+ AB
Lawrie 6
J Mac 3
McCoy 2
Others 8

Total 261

I see a lot of really low expectations from a lot of people here. Aren't you guys homers?

Not to worry, we are most definitely homers. Your prediction of 222 total bombs is only 4 more than the average of 218 thus far (27 ballots).

I think it's not so much that we're forecasting unreachable totals (other than for Davis), but that we're assuming good health across the board. It's a bad assumption, but not easily avoided - predicting exactly who will get injured is even more of a mug's game.

Here are the average predictions. Lawrie has been named on 17 of 30 ballots, Molina on 10, the rest on nearly all. I didn't include Patterson since he's only been named 5 times, but I think y'all are crazy predicting more homers for Rajai than for Corey.

40 Jose Bautista 
30 Travis Snider
28 Adam Lind
26 Edwin Encarnacion
23 Aaron Hill
16 J.P. Arencibia
15 Juan Rivera
11 Yunel Escobar
10 Rajai Davis
9 Brett Lawrie
7 Jose Molina

Marcel has Bautista, Snider, Lind, Encarnacion, Hill, Arencibia, Rivera, Escobar and Davis combining for 143 homers.   The big discrepancies would be Snider and Arencibia (who Marcel projects for 13 and 7 respectively), as well as Bautista and Encarnacion (30 and 18 respectively).  We are homers, but probably not as much as Marcel suggests.  We implicitly project more playing time than Marcel does for Snider, Arencibia and Encarnacion because we know about the likely 25 man roster, and Marcel does not.  Marcel would make playing time inferences solely for past playing time and age. 

1. Jose Bautista 39
2. Edwin Encarnacion 31 (his average is another story)
3. Adam Lind 25
4. Travis Snider 25
5. Aaron Hill 22
6. Yunel Escobar 12
7. JP Arencibia 12
8. Brett Lawrie 12
9. Davis - 10
10. Juan Rivera 5 - Traded for a new batting cage
11. Corey Patterson 0 -  Released in July
12. Posednick - 2
13. Surprise player who was not on radar(or in the orginization) - 20
14. Molina -2

Team total = 217

I would be very surpised if this is the same team is on the field in Sept as in April.  AA has some more tricks up his sleave. 

This is what I know:

1. We still have a lot of good options for pitching that are will probably not be in the Jays future (Litsch, Richmond, Stewart, Rzep,Reyes,etc).

2. The bullpen is stocked and some decent options in the waiting.  What is Dotel, Fransisco and Rauch going to get us at the trading deadline?  

3. There are many parts that are not long term options.  (Davis, Rivera, EE, Patterson, Posednick,etc.)

4. There are a lot of if's on the team (Lind, Hill, JPA, EE, etc)

5. There are lots of good young options coming up in the system.

6. The Jays management's goals are to win in 2012-2013.

If the Jays are not in contention in august, I see many parts moving if they are not fitting or could get something in return. 

That would be an interesting post.  Who do we think will be onoff the team by the end of the season?

 

 

I think y'all are crazy predicting more homers for Rajai than for Corey.

I'm surprised you're so high on Patterson. I expect many posters, myself included, do not expect Patterson to see significant playing time while on the roster and, once (or if you prefer, if) Podsednik is healthy, do not expect him to be on the major league roster.

1. We still have a lot of good options for pitching that are will probably not be in the Jays future (Litsch, Richmond, Stewart, Rzep, Reyes, etc).

...Stewart... I disagree, it's possible Stewart has better stuff and a higher upside than Drabek.   Morrow, Drabek and Stewart are, at present, the only power arms for the Rotation; anyone who pitches mid-90's or better, you must keep.

I'm not high on Patterson in the sense of liking him as a player. I just think he's going to get some playing time as the only legitimate backup centrefielder, and his one asset is power. I don't expect Podsednik to be ready to play anytime soon.

Litch, Richmond, Stewart, Rzep, Reyes ect...

I see Stewart as a high ceiling, power pitching prospect that has earned an opportunity in AAA. He only gets traded IMO as a center piece in a big trade. IMO pitchers like D Price, J Lester & CC are essential to winning a championship, but I don't know if Drabek, Stewart have the potential to reach that level.
Litch & Rzep are ML ready, so they are in the rotation on Opening day, starting depth or bullpen. May also be much sought after as Aug & Sept rotation strength to contenders if somehow they establish themselves.

anyone who pitches mid-90's or better, you must keep.

Lots of guys throw in the mid 90s. And they are a dime a dozen - hello, Josh Roenicke! - and no one should give a damn.

Hardly anyone pitches in the mid 90s, and those are the guys you want. The Jays might - might - have one. Brandon Morrow. Maybe.

The rest are just guys who throw hard. Whether they can actually pitch is yet to be determined.

 IMO pitchers like D Price, J Lester & CC are essential to winning a championship, but I don't know if Drabek, Stewart have the potential to reach that level.

They just have to switch hands?  Seriously, Price, Lester and CC might be the three hardest throwing lefty starters in the league.  They are rare and not a prerequisite to winning a championship.

ayjackson I most definitely agree. I say lets just draft those type of guys.

BUT WHAT IF ... JoJo Reyes can add 2-5 mph on his FB, develop exceptionally good other pitches... already LHP. He was a part of AA's biggest in-season 2011 trade. OK this was a joke but but seriously ... He has a high ceiling, does he not?