Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Predict the Injuries

Forecasting playing time is fun, isn't it?

Reality check, kids....

Anyone want to forecast how many days Blue Jays spend on the DL in 2011?

You know it's going to happen, and just to give you a sense of how much it can happen, let me provide for you a history of the Blue Jays and the Disabled List. Covering most of the current millennium...

2010  (762 games lost)

Dustin McGowan                162
Dirk Hayhurst                 162
Jesse Litsch (two times)      114 (59+55)
Scott Richmond                 70
Travis Snider                  54
Edwin Encarnacion (two times)  44 (30+14)
Brian Tallet                   41
Mark Rzepczynski               41
David Purcey                   18
Rommie Lewis                   17
Aaron Hill                     15
John Buck                      12
Shaun Marcum                   12


2009  (848 games lost)

Dustin McGowan                 162
Shaun Marcum                   162
Jesse Litsch                   154
Robert Ray                     118
Michael Barret                  71
Casey Janssen (two times)       55 (23-32)
Scott Downs (two times)         37 (19-18)
Ricky Romero                    24
Scott Richmond                  21
B.J. Ryan                       18
Edwin Encarnacion               15
Roy Halladay                    11

2008  (780 games lost)

Casey Janssen                  162
Jeremy Accardo                 125
Aaron Hill                     105
Dustin McGowan                  70
Shannon Stewart                 54
Vernon Wells (two times)        52 (26+26)
Brian Wolfe                     45
Scott Rolen (two times)         36 (23+13)
John McDonald                   29
Shaun Marcum                    27
David Eckstein                  19
Brian Tallet                    17
Gregg Zaun                      16
Brad Wilkerson                  12
B.J. Ryan                       11

2007  (954 games lost)

Davis Romero                   162
B.J. Ryan                      151
Gustavo Chacin                 139
Brandon League (two times)     117 (90+27)
Reed Johnson                    76
John Thomson                    69
Victor Zambrano                 55
A.J. Burnett (two times)        50 (37-13)
Gregg Zaun                      39
Troy Glaus (two times)          39 (14-25)
Lyle Overbay                    31
Roy Halladay                    18
Vernon Wells                     9

2006   (319 games lost)
 
Pete Walker (two times)         89 (15+74)
Gustavo Chacin (two times)      83 (17+66)
A.J. Burnett (two times)        61 (10+51)
Justin Speier                   27
Alex Rios                       26
Ty Taubenheim                   15
John McDonald                   14
Gregg Zaun                       4

2005    (191 games lost)

Roy Halladay                    76
Corey Koskie                    58
Ted Lilly (two times)           45 (6+39)
Gregg Zaun                      12

2004    (740 games lost)

Greg Myers                     141
Bobby Estalella                104
Valerie De Los Santos          100
Frank Catalanotto (three times) 81 (16+26+39)
Roy Halladay (two times)        70 (15+55)
Justin Miller                   55
Bob File                        35
Carlos Delgado                  33
Justin Speier                   25
Vernon Wells                    24
Chris Woodward                  24
Orlando Hudson                  20
Kevin Cash                      15
Kerry Ligtenberg                13


2003    (460 games lost)

Bob File                       124
Doug Creek                     116
Pete Walker (two times)         88 (19+69)
Eric Hinske                     28
Dave Berg                       22
Shannon Stewart                 21
Cliff Politte                   20
Cory Lidle                      18
Josh Phelps                     13
Jayson Werth                    10

2002    (571 games lost)

Mike Sirotka                   162
Chris Carpenter (three times)  112 (15+53+44)
Luke Prokopec (two times)       72 (37+35)
Steve Parris                    63
Bob File (two times)            36 (12+24)
Esteban Loaiza                  35
Jose Cruz                       33
Chris Woodward                  18
Carlos Delgado                  14
Shannon Stewart                 13
Darrin Fletcher                 13

Even the years with the lowest numbers have their own special kind of nastiness. The lowest of all, by far, was 2005 - the team lost just 191 days to the DL. The problem is, Roy Halladay, having the best year of his life, accounts for the largest share, having suffered a season-ending injury just before the All-Star Break. And 2006 looks pretty good - just 319 days lost to the DL - until you look closely and notice that two of the five guys pencilled into the rotation at the start of the season account for a big chunk of that year's damage...

It's true that sometimes there are passengers, players who weren't really an integral part of the team's plans but ended spending an entire season on a major league DL - Mike Sirotka, Davis Romero, Dustin McGowan in recent years (and earning a major league salary, too - I'm pretty sure Dirk Hayhurst made more money playing baseball last year, when he couldn't play, than any other time in his career.) But those guys are the exceptions. Roy Halladay went on the DL five different times, and missed 175 games during these years. That's a whole season, too.

Posted by Magpie on Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 07:00 AM EDT.

Predict the Injuries | 25 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#231327) #

632. The real question is not the number, but who? I mean, you're watching David Eckstein and Aaron Hill going back for a pop-up at half-speed or less, and one misplaced elbow later, a key component of your club spends most of the season on the DL. Nothing much you can do, except to be prepared.

In this regard, it should be noted that the club has pretty fair pitching depth and not much depth in the middle infield unless you believe that John McDonald's dip into the pool of power was a full-on jump rather than a cautious toe in-and-out.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#231330) #

Today on Baseball Prospectus:

Team Injury Projection
Toronto Blue Jays
by Corey Dawkins and Marc Normandin
Some Jays players got overly attached to the DL in 2010, but new faces may
bring greater health this season.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13212

Mostly behind their paywall, sorry ...

dan gordon - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#231334) #

Speaking of injuries, Podsednik's foot will be placed in a cast for 10 days. I imagine he will start the season on the DL. Romero has a problem with the middle finger on his pitching hand and will miss his next start. Hill is going to try DH'ing in a minor league game today and see how the quad feels. Not sure what's going on with Francisco.

Jonny German - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#231335) #

Some Jays players got overly attached to the DL in 2010, but new faces may bring greater health this season.

I wouldn't count on that. While the total of 762 days last season looks like a lot, 566 of those days (74%) were players not expected to contribute much going in to the season (McGowan and Litsch) and players no better than their replacements (Hayhurst, Richmond, Tallet, Rommie Lewis).

Of the 196 days lost by regulars, only Travis Snider's 54 days was truly painful. Encarnacion and Rzepczynski were performing badly enough that the team voluntarily chose to have them spend time in Las Vegas, and the other 4 were the regular wear-and-tear 15-day DL stints. Overall I'd say the 2010 team was as healthy as you can reasonably expect, and particuarly fortunate with the top 4 starting pitchers.

joeblow - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#231337) #

It hurts to do this:

Aaron Hill 152 (it's not mental)
Octavio Dotel 40
Drabek 60 (too young, too hard)
Cecil 15
Aaron Cibia 15 
Molina 45
Encarnacion 40 (or more - hopefully for another team)

Forkball - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#231338) #

Speaking of injuries, Podsednik's foot will be placed in a cast for 10 days. I imagine he will start the season on the DL.

Isn't it more likely he's released?

Thomas - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#231342) #

Isn't it more likely he's released?

Why would it be more likely that he's released? If healthy, he's a better fourth outfielder than Corey Patterson. I don't know if Patterson will make the team, but the Jays have already returned Mastroianni to the minor league camp and I don't see a better fit for the team's fourth outfielder on the roster. That may change if the team decides McCoy will suffice as the team's main backup CF, but I'm assuming they'll want a more trusted option to backup Davis.

China fan - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#231344) #

....I don't know if Patterson will make the team.....

I'd have to say that Patterson is now a lock to make the team. And McCoy too. It had been a battle between Patterson, McCoy and Podsednik for two spots on the roster, so the injury now to Podsednik has ended all the suspense. Mastroianni needs a bit more experience in the minors -- the Jays will want to see him for a month or two in Las Vegas before he's considered for a call-up, and even then he'd be called up only if Patterson and Podsednik are both disappointing. What he would bring to the Jays is very similar to what Patterson and Podsednik bring, but without the major-league experience. I'd expect him to get some seasoning at AAA before he's even considered for a promotion.

Charlie - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#231347) #

Tom Verducci wrote an article for SI last week about a mechanical flaw with Strasburg's delivery that may have predisposed him to injury. Here is the essence of the theory:

To understand the danger of the glitch, first you must understand the most critical point of a pitcher's delivery. The pitching motion is a kinetic chain of events, carefully calibrated and timed, like a Formula One car's engine, for maximum efficiency. But above all others one link of the chain is most important: the "late cocking phase," or the phase during which the shoulder reaches its maximum external rotation with the baseball raised in the "loaded" position (typically, above the shoulder) and ready to come forward.

Here is the key to managing the torque levels in the late cocking phase: timing. The ball should be loaded in the late cocking phase precisely when the pitcher's stride foot lands on the ground.

In fact Strasburg does not get the ball loaded into the "late cocking phase" before planting his stride foot. According to a legion of medical experts quoted in the article, this significantly increases his risk factor for injury.

Later in the article Verducci points out a couple of young pitchers who display the same mechanical flaw in their deliveries as Strasburg, one of them being Kyle Drabek. I checked his mechanics on YouTube and, sure enough, it does seem that Drabek does not have the ball quite loaded by the time his stride foot hits the mound. Hopefully I'm either analyzing this wrong or the randomness involved in injuries simply passes Drabek by.

Charlie - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#231348) #

For some reason those links didn't work so here are the full URLs.

Verducci article: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/03/08/stephen.strasburg.mechanics/index.html
YouTube clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZ1Y8sq1Y6Q

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#231349) #

Drabek has had TJ, so concerns about later-developing shoulder problems are perhaps of even greater significance than for other pitchers.

It's spring. Are the admins trying to corral the unbridled optimism that was roaming about here not so long ago by drawing attention to the risk of injury? Where is the sweet belief that a 162-0 season is still possible?

ayjackson - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#231350) #

Mike, injuries are not a problem; we can go 162 - 0 with minor leaguers.

smcs - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#231352) #

Drabek seems to be a mix bag in terms of mechanics. If you look at this photo from July 4, he looks to be dangerously close to the inverted W and his elbow might be a bit too high. But this video from August 1, the ball is behind his head when his plant foot hits the ground and his elbow is either parallel or below his shoulder. One of the leading writers on pitcher health (Chris O'Leary) thinks that problems arise when a pitcher's elbow is above the shoulder blade when the front foot hits the ground. The banner photo of Ricky Romero shows his elbow below the shoulder blade (it looks like the photo might be a tad before his lead foot hits, but as he brings his hand up to release over the top, his elbow has to drop lower), but if you look at Dustin McGowan, his elbow looks high even though he isn't doing the inverted W.

Here is Chris O'Leary's take on Strasburg and the Verducci article. He essentially agrees that Strasburg has bad mechanics, but for different reasons than Verducci points out.

Of course, there is more to pitcher health than mechanics, but bad mechanics certainly don't help.

And I'll say 583 for injury games, the bulk coming from Podsednik (a runner with a heel injury that doesn't heal does not bode well), Rivera and one of the relievers.

Thomas - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#231355) #

I'd have to say that Patterson is now a lock to make the team.

My hesitation was based on two factors. One being that we have no idea what Farrell wants the makeup of the roster to be. I would be surprised if he doesn't take a fourth strict outfielder, but he could view McCoy as the fourth outfielder, particularly if Lawrie makes the team (which I view as quite unlikely). Secondly, the makeup of the team's roster could change before the beginning of the season and this could influence the last couple of roster spots if AA acquires a 3B or another outfielder. In any case, it's significantly more likely than not he'll make the club.

China fan - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 05:36 AM EDT (#231356) #

With all the recent injuries, the bullpen is becoming a very interesting place. A couple days ago, the bullpen looked very overcrowded, and a trade seemed likely. Now, with the injuries and the early roster cuts, things are shaking out more clearly, and it appears that Anthopolous was smart to acquire all the bullpen depth that had earlier seemed excessive. At this point, it seems that Francisco, Dotel, Carlson and Richmond won't be ready for opening day. Mills has already been sent to the minor-league camp (and I suppose he could be brought back, but the early cut is a signal that he isn't too highly regarded at this point.) We're also getting some early indications, from the spring games, that Reyes is well-regarded and Purcey is still a bit wobbly with the usual control issues. So here's my new guess on the likely bullpen depth chart on opening day:

Rauch (closer)
Frasor
Camp
Janssen
Villanueva
Reyes
Purcey

This assumes that Litsch and Drabek are the 4 and 5 starters in the rotation, which looks most likely at this point. The other possibility for the bullpen is Zep, but he's probably going to be the 6th starter who needs to be ready to step into the rotation immediately if there is an injury to any of the top 5 starters. So I think the Jays will want him pitching every 5 days in Las Vegas, ready for a call-up at any time.

The nice thing about the likely bullpen on opening day is the balance, with two LH pitchers in the bullpen instead of one or none. It also allows the Jays to take an extended look at Reyes and Villanueva against major-league hitters.

When Francisco and Dotel (and even Carlson) are ready to return from injuries, the Jays will have a bit of a dilemma. If they cut Reyes or Purcey, they will probably lose them on waivers. Janssen and Villanueva seem a bit more vulnerable to being demoted. But on the positive side, Farrell and Anthopolous will have a couple weeks of the regular season to assess the bullpen and see if they want to keep Reyes and Villanueva. That's when a trade becomes more likely. If everyone is healthy, and if Reyes and Villanueva continue to look good, and if Purcey regains his form, there's no way to keep everyone.

AWeb - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#231357) #

In fact Strasburg does not get the ball loaded into the "late cocking phase" before planting his stride foot. According to a legion of medical experts quoted in the article, this significantly increases his risk factor for injury.

What I have never seen addressed is whether this type of motion comes with a positive tradeoff - Strasburg threw 100mph+, so "bad mechanics" would seem to apply only from an injury point of view. What if they are good mechanics from a velocity, spin, and deception point of view? Could it be worth the risk to long-term health for a possible gain in short-term performance?

Also, do the "freaks", the guys who threw very hard for a very long time (Ryan, Clemens, Johnson, and others), have something identifiably similar in their mechanics, or are they just the genetically lucky ones? Post-injury, it's a little too easy to say everyone saw it coming - can mechanics be fixed beforehand to reduce the risks without costing performance and years of redevelopment?

Mike Green - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#231360) #

It appears, as CF and Larry Millson in today's Globe suggest, that Litsch will open the season in the rotation. I am not optimistic about how this will turn out. I like Litsch as a pitcher, and always have, but it seems to me that it would take him longer to adapt to changes arising from his arm injury than Marcum, say. However, if Rzepczynski starts the season in the bullpen, it is not necessarily a bad thing as it will naturally curb his seasonal innings load; it is important for him to be in the rotation by June though so that he can have 180 innings under his belt in 2011 and be ready for 2012.

onecent - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#231362) #

I'm not even going to try this - impossible to predict. It's interesting looking at the past years though. Depsite the seemingly high number of days missed in 2010, the Jays were relatively healthy. Most of those days missed belonged to players not expected to contribute or that were still recovering from their '09 injuries. The year that stands out as particularly painful is 2008. Casey Janssen was coming off a strong 2007 and was expected to either be the 5th starter or long releiver until he went down during ST. Jeremy Accardo was the closer in 2007 and was expected to be a set-up man in 2008, but battled injuries all year. McGowan, who was having a solid season as the #3 starter went down at the half-way mark and Marcum didn't miss a lot of the season, but the timing and deciseveness of his injury hurt a lot. When Marcum went down, that meant our # 3, #4 and #5 starters going into the season were now all facing potentially career threatening injuries. On the offensive side, Hill obviously stands out for the number of games missed, but Wells and Rolen are also notable, not only for the number of days missed, but because when they played, they were clearly playing through injuries. People generally underestimate the effect that playing through an injury has on a player's ability to play at a high level. When you have a fraction of a second to determine what pitch is being thrown and where it will go and then swing at said pitch, an injury that slows you're bat speed down even by 10% is going to have a huge effect on your performance. Not an injury issue, but 2008 is also the year that Frank Thomas wasn't happy about the Jays restricting his playing time so that his option wouldn't vest and then asked for his release. Hill, Rolen, Wells and Thomas were expected to be a big part of the Jays offense that year. It is impressive that wwith all the injuries the Jays finsihed above .500 and it also makes you wonder, "what if..."

85bluejay - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#231363) #

I think Litsch will do a serviceable job and increase his trade value for when Stewart is ready - will pitch well against most teams but I expect good offensive teams like the Yankees,Red Sox and Rangers to take him to the woodshed

85bluejay - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#231364) #

I found it interesting that Mike Wilner reported that the manager went out of his way to praise Jason Fraser & Juan Rivera unprompted - I hope a trade is beckoning. Chris Davis is sitting out there very available and the Rangers need experienced BP arms if they move Feliz into the rotation.

bpoz - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#231367) #

925 games lost.

I am very impressed with the quality of the games lost analysis and how they impact the bottom line.

Depth & quality of depth/backup is important. For example if your catcher is a healthy C Fisk (I wish) then our current backup is a downgrade for about 40 games. But now I understand the thinking behind the Bengie Molina & G Zaun tandem.

Regarding trading excess starting pitchers. Do we trade a #2/3 like Marcum or a #4. A non #2/3 would be someone who is clearly weaker against a stacked NYY lineup.I am not sure, but would that be a criteria in evaluation. If so Zep struk out a bunch of them last year. I would give rookies a break. Also leaving with men on base that then score or not score is something I would seperate.

ayjackson - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#231368) #

Not sure I see the attraction in Chris Davis. Not sure what went wrong with him last couple of years. I'm happy with Lind at first for now.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#231373) #

Paul D - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#231375) #

True, 85, but RonWash has been VERY clear to local media -- if feliz starts, he expects Jon Daniels to go out at get (his term) "a proven closer - a guy who's done it." Fraso doesn't qualify. And Rivera would have no place in Texas.

Well Washington can expect whatever he wants, but what if Frasor is the best they can get? How many proven closers are on the market right now?

Chuck - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#231376) #

How many proven closers are on the market right now?

And why the hell is this suddenly a priority NOW? If the plan always was to move Feliz to the rotation, why not spend the off-season hunting down an established veteran, proven closer blah blah blah... or even just keep Francisco rather than trading him away?

What an odd time to be sending out your GM with a shopping list. And a public one at that.

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