Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 2011 Minor League Players

2011 Minor League Players - Starting Pitchers

The battle for starting pitcher jobs is likely to be one of the most interesting contests of spring training. There are several new pitchers looking for their first professional assignment. Will Deck McGuire and Asher Wojciechowski get assigned to Lansing or Dunedin? Will any of the kids get to start in Lansing? Is Henderson Alvarez ready for AA? Who will get the fifth starting job on these teams?

All of this ignores the battle at the major league level for the #4 and #5 jobs. And wait until you see the battle at Lansing, they could fill two teams with starters.

Before we begin, most teams need to have six potential starters because, on average, one starter will be on the DL at any time. The expected fight for some jobs may not materialize depending on who gets injured.

Toronto

We know that Ricky Romero; Brandon Morrow; and Brett Cecil have three jobs locked up. Kyle Drabek; Jesse Litsch; and Marc Rzepczynski will battle for two jobs. Brad Mills; Zack Stewart; Scott Richmond and Bobby Ray each think they have a shot at the fifth job. Some of the decisions will come down to who has options left to be sent to AAA.

Las Vegas

The losers in the Blue Jay rotation battle will head for Vegas. However several of those pitchers may not make the starting rotation in AAA. Scott Richmond and Bobby Ray might get a bullpen assignment if the Jays have decided their major league future is in the pen. Having said that the Jays signed so many relievers over the winter that the bullpen is looking crowded too.

Behind Stewart, Zep/Drabek/Litsch and Mills there will be two open jobs. In addition to Richmond and Ray, Luis Perez; Jo-Jo Reyes; and Sean Henn will try and claim the last two spots. Each of those pitchers have started in AAA in the past. If Richmond is fully recovered from his injury I see he and Luis Perez being the favourites. Ray and Henn have pitched out of the bullpen in the past. Reyes has to pass through waivers to make it to the minors. The Jays plans for him are not clear at this point.

One long shot to consider would be Casey Janssen. The Jays did try and make Janssen a starter a few years ago but it didn't work out. If Janssen were to lose out on a major league bullpen job the Jays could again try him as a starter.

New Hampshire

Randy Boone was a key part of the Fisher Cats rotation in 2010, particularly in the first half before he became injured. Boone doesn't overpower anyone but he mixes four pitches well. Joel Carreno pitched well enough in Dunedin in 2010 to earn a promotion for 2011. Carreno got a lot of attention with his strikeout numbers in Dunedin but he will be asked to prove himself again in AA. Chuck Huggins retirement was a surprise. Although Huggins was not a top prospect, he was expected to make the AA rotation this year. Huggins had spent over a season at Dunedin and was considered ready for AA. Huggins retirement creates a bit of a gap in the Jays plans. Holdovers in New Hampshire such as Reyes; BJ LaMura; and Reidier Gonzalez will compete with potential pitchers trying to move up such as Henderson Alvarez and Chad Jenkins. If Reyes is claimed, or stays in AAA, then LaMura and Gonzalez could claim two of the spots with the fifth job up for grabs. Mike MacDonald is a Maine native who pitched in AA last season, he may have been signed to fill Huggins spot.

Alvarez was throwing the ball down the middle of the plate last season and the Jays will make sure he fixes that before he is promoted, I believe he stays in Dunedin for a while. Jenkins made good progress later in 2010 according to Dane Johnson so he could push for a promotion too. Many prospect watchers have been disappointed with Jenkins progress so far in his pro career but Dane Johson was quite positive about his development in my year-end interview last season. I still thinks he stays in Dunedin for a while but both he and Alvarez will be shooting for that first promotion.

Bobby Bell started last season in the AA rotation. But because of injuries he missed half the season and I expect he will be back in the bullpen in 2011.

The projected AA rotation doesn't look to be as strong as last season when Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart anchored the rotation.

Dunedin

Alvarez and Jenkins should anchor the rotation while newcomers Deck McGuire and Asher Wojciechowski will also look to stay in Florida. The fifth, or fourth and fifth spots, will be fought over by holdovers Ryan Page and Andrew Liebel, and Lansing pitchers Ryan Tepera and Ryan Shopshire.

(Ryan Tepera)

McGuire and Wojciechowski could each start in Lansing. However there are a lot of pitchers fighting over those spots and there are not a lot of options for the Dunedin jobs. The obvious candidates, the Lansing staff from 2010, did not pitch well last season so the normal move-up candidates are limited. In 2010 the Jays had Chad Jenkins start in Lansing but I think this year they will opt for Dunedin for both of these guys.

Liebel is a former third round pick who missed most of 2010 through injury. Before his injury he wasn't impressive. Tepera was the most impressive Lansing starter in 2010 and he would be likely competing for that fifth spot.

The potential Dunedin rotation of Alvarez; Jenkins; McGuire; Wojciechowski; and Tepera could be a formidable one for the Jays.

Lansing

Lansing will see an interesting battle for starting jobs. Among the contenders are Aaron Sanchez; Griffin Murphy; Drew Hutchison; Casey Lawrence; Dave Sever; Matt Fields; Daniel Webb; Nestor Molina (if the Jays convert him to be a starter); Egan Smith; Sean Nolin; Jesse Hernandez and Misaul Diaz.

As always the jobs will go to the top prospects first. My order of priority for these pitchers is:

Sanchez
Murphy
Hutchison
Webb; Nolin; Molina
Diaz
Lawrence; Fields; Sever; Smith, Hernandez

Sanchez; Murphy and Hutchison should get the first three spots as they are top 30 prospects. Hutchison is virtually guaranteed a spot while Sanchez and Murphy have to prove they can handle the Midwest League.

Sean Nolin is a 2010 draftee and the Jays need to see what they have in him. Nestor Molina was one of the most improved pitchers in the system in 2010 and if the Jays see his potential they could switch him into the rotation. Dan Webb started for Auburn in 2010 and pitched reasonably well there. Webb and the next man in, Misaul Diaz, are both 21 and have time to develop. Hutchison is still just 20 years old.

My guess today would be that the five spots go to Sanchez; Hutchison; Nolin; Molina and Lawrence. Webb might get a shot at the closers job. Murphy and Diaz will stay in the GCL. The others will likely get bullpen jobs.

Battling for that fifth spot would be tough for Casey Lawrence who had a great 2010, including a late season promotion to Lansing, but undrafted free agents don't get the benefit of the doubt. Lawrence could also be assured of being a starter in the event of injury or if Molina doesn't get converted.

(Nestor Molina, frame is from a video explaining the blur)

Extended/GCL

The Jays will have a host of young starters in extended. Griffin Murphy; Noah Syndergaard; Justin Nicolino; Deivy Estrada; Mitchell Taylor; Myles Jaye; Adaric Kelly; Nicholas Purdy and many more.

In summary there will be some interesting battles for starting pitcher jobs this spring. By improving the system the Jays have increased the pitching talent and with all the young arms the battles will be even tougher next year.

Posted by Gerry on Friday, February 11 2011 @ 07:00 AM EST.

2011 Minor League Players - Starting Pitchers | 27 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

rtcaino - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 08:12 AM EST (#230160) #

Who would be likely candidates for Bluefeild and Vancouver?

I guess those are short season teams that will be populated by the extended sping/ GCL group?

85bluejay - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 08:38 AM EST (#230161) #

While most Jays fans have Drabek pencilled in for the 4th/5th spot ,I'm hoping that Litsch & zeps win those spots to start this season - I think that's a win,win situation for the Jays - it allows litsch & Zeps to rebuild their value while keeping Drabek in the minors for 2 months allowing for him to miss super 2 & an extra yr. of team control during the years we hope to be competitive - that's worth a lot and in a building year it's an easy tradeoff IMO .If litsch pitches well, I expect the Jays will move him - he is a control pitcher and AA has said repeatedly that he thinks the jays need power arms to compete in the AL east.

I am especially looking forward to the full season debut of the pitching class of 2010 - despite Sam Dyson's injury,I think this class will look even better by season' end. Count me as someone who was not impressed by Jenkins first year - perhaps coming from a small program,developing the changeup & lacking stamina all contributed to his season but this year he should know what to expect and there should be no excuses.

rtcaino - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 08:53 AM EST (#230162) #

Drabek in the minors for 2 months allowing for him to miss super 2 & an extra yr. of team control during the years we hope to be competitive

Would it not be an extra year of arb eligibility, with the same years of control?

Gerry - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 08:56 AM EST (#230163) #

Bluefield and Vancouver will be stocked by the GCL crew as well as the 2011 draftees. In other words it is too early to know who will play where in June.

bpoz - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 09:03 AM EST (#230164) #

Thanks Gerry & Dave for such a good job.

Something that impresses me about pitchers is how smart some of them are. I loved the intelligence of Doyle Alexander & J Key who both had great success.

B Cecil learned a new pitch almost instantly last year when he cut his thumb. Combined with his good stuff and confident attitude I preferred him as the best of last years top 4. All proved that they were very good IMO. Marcum must be a genius. Litch has always been one of my favorites, he was good in Rookie ball, skipped Auburn & Lansing the next year and eventually dominated Dunedin before going to AA. I believe it took him 3-5 starts to figure out AA then he was good the next year in AA before being rushed to the Majors. IMO his first 2 ML seasons were good overall, he learns fast as he was sent down twice, once to develop his 4 seamer.

Regarding our minors, I will be watching to see how well our power arms like Drabek, Stewart, Alvarez & Webb make the adjustments to the higher levels.
The interview with D Hutchison, convinced me that he is probably V Smart by his comment on control being key for success. I know that he is V young and needs to gain some weight BUT Auburn & Lansing gave him no trouble IMO. His 1st game in Lansing was a 5 Inning perfect game before he was removed. I suppose he has to learn to pitch deeper into games to move up the ladder, as he was never able to pitch into the 6th inning.

Maldoff - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 09:25 AM EST (#230165) #

Gerry, any thoughts on Kyle Ginley, who was highly thought of before missing all of last year?

92-93 - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 09:38 AM EST (#230166) #

Looks like the Dunedin fans will be treated to a solid rotation to open the year.

Flex - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 09:53 AM EST (#230167) #

Speaking of starters ... ahem ... Andrew Krystal has been bumped off the morning show at the Fan.

http://bit.ly/gymTSB

Chuck - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 10:13 AM EST (#230168) #

Would it not be an extra year of arb eligibility, with the same years of control?

I believe this is so. Keeping a rookie in the minors until June is intended to save the team money during that player's 3rd season, to keep that player from being arbitration-eligible (i.e., having Super-2 status).

bpoz - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 11:03 AM EST (#230170) #

85Bluejay, I agree with you. That Drabek has to earn his job and AA prefers power pitchers, lets say like Morrow.

I also think SPs could be traded if/when we have a surplus. I know that Marcum was traded for Lawrie. Assuming AA really wanted Lawrie, did it have to be Marcum or would the Brewers have accepted any of the 4 top pitchers from last year.
To answer my own question, Cecil & Morrow can put up better numbers because last year was a learning year for them. So it is easy to say that trading them would be selling low rather than high. Of course they along with anyone can perform worse. Romero was very good and most likely will be better, if he reduces his ERA by a half run (low 3s) consistently then he may be considered as elite. Of course Marcum can also do this IMO.

Another thing AA repeatedly stresses is that competition for jobs is preferred. Example competition for the closers job in 2010 & 2011, but the manager gets to choose. BUT that may not always be the best way to go, IMO Morrow was handed his rotation spot in 2010, he did not earn it. This year IMO JPA is being handed the #1 catchers job, maybe he earned it in AAA and all competition like M Olivo has been removed.
Last year excuses were made to B Cecil, that he had remaining options but Eveland did not and Tallet was a lock based on his 2009. I think the Tallet injury and B Cecil promotion was in time to NOT use up the option but not sure.

I really hope that there is a true competition for the #4/5 spots. I see B Mills possibly being very good in ST but not getting the job because he has options left or some other reason. Then the #4/5 winners outperforming some of the top 3. With enough talented & ML ready candidates I think it is quite possible.

Jdog - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 11:08 AM EST (#230171) #

Ginley has pretty much been out for 2 seasons with a variety of injuries. He pitched 7 innings is all in 2009 and zero during the 2010 MILB season. I'm guessing his arm is not what it once was

Mike Green - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 11:23 AM EST (#230172) #

With the pitchers, a lot of the decisions depend on health. For instance, Asher Woj didn't pitch in a game after July 7. We all hope that he's ready to take on the FSL in 2011, but we really don't know.

Pitchers and catchers report on February 14. That is auspicious.

CeeBee - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 11:26 AM EST (#230173) #

One name I have not seen mentioned is Dustin McGowan. I suppose there is a chance he starts some games in Toronto this year.

ayjackson - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 12:25 PM EST (#230180) #

I think Wojo pitched in Instructs - I'll check my Handbook when I get home.

With two plus pitches, he should be able to handle A+, if healthy.

Gerry - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 01:23 PM EST (#230181) #

Wojo came in at the end of instructs and was reportedly fine.

MatO - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 02:07 PM EST (#230182) #

Too bad about Ginley. I saw him pitch in Lansing when Snider was there. He sat at 94-96 and touched 98 over 7 innings.

TamRa - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 08:12 PM EST (#230191) #

My understanding was that shutting Woj down was as much about his innings total as any specific "injury" - is this wrong?

part of the problem for me in projecting rotations is that - even if you dismiss older filler guys like Lamura and Everts, we have considerably more guys than we have slots (until injuries thin the ranks)

By my count there are arguably 30-35 candidates for the 4 full-season teams.

I need to review stats and such to refresh my memory but I have them something like this:
(bolded important - IMO - guys)

Romero / Morrow / Cecil / Litsch / Zep (might be Drabek)
AAA-
Drabek / Stewart / Mills / Richmond / Reyes (if he clears, otherwise Ray)
AA-
Carreno / Bell* / Boone** / Ethridge / Page
* Bell will end up relieving but my guess is he'll start until Jenkins is promoted, there are way too many bullpen options at the upper levels now.
**In other days, Boone would be promoted - he has little left to do at his
age at AA, but the chart is too deep.

My guess is that if Jenkins does well he'll be promoted around early June.

Hi-A-
Jenkins / Alvarez* / Tepera / Fields/ Shopshire / Raburn
*Might be promoted after the break if he is doing well

I suspect that if AA started Jenkins in lansing, he'll do the same with McGuire and Woj. I do figure both of them will be promoted mid-season as performance warrants (and as non-prospects like Shopshire et al are exposed)

Lo-A -
McGuire / Woj / Hutcheson / Webb / Smith / Lawrence

I'd love to see Sanchez make this team but at his age, and with the depth, they might be cautious. Also, some injuries and so forth would have to thin the heard. in fact, i have two other guys listed for this level that I have nothing to do with if the guys above stay healthy - that being Sever and John Anderson, but they aren't really prospects.

Vancouver-
Sanchez / Synergaard / Nolin / Estrada / Murphy

Just listing these at the highest SS level because they are the high-priority guys. i can't really say i have any expertise on whether that puts them at this level. it just seems to me these are the most highly regarded, you want them at the most advanced level.

My assumption is that Cardona and the 2011 draftees will be in the GCL and the best of the rest will be in Bluefield.

As always, i'm clearly just guessing.

TamRa - Friday, February 11 2011 @ 09:33 PM EST (#230194) #

I forgot to mention Liebel in Dunedin.

According to my spreadsheet, these are the guys (still in the system) who started more than relieved at each minor league level in 2010 (plus guys who were on the DL)

I bolded the first occurance of each name

Tor: Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Litsch

LV:
Brad Mills (20 starts) - has to be hoping for a trade?
Bobby Ray (18) - presumed to be a reliever at some point
Ray Gonzalez (15) - likely started his last AAA game
Luis Perez (15) - I see him in the 'pen personally.
Marc Rzepczyinski (12) - needs to have a great spring to stay a step ahead of Drabek
Listch (4), Cecil (2), and Scott Richmond (2) - I don't think they will be hasty to put Richmond in the minor league pen, although that may be his only opening in Toronto.

NH:
Kyle Drabek (27)
Zach Stewart (26)
Randy Boone (22)
B.J. LaMura (15) - 30 appearances in all, i think he's a reliever unless injuries force the matter
Luis Perez (12)
Bobby Bell (10) eventually a reliever, but i think they are more likely to delay that move than to do it now and wind up with LaMura or MacDonald starting.
Ray Gonzalez (9) future reliever, starting as a placeholder
JoJo Reyes (2) if he isn't claimed, I figure he'd have to be in AAA

Dunedin:
Joel Carreno (25)
Henderson Alvarez (21)
Ryan Page (14) - currently listed on the Las Vegas rroster
Andrew Liebel (13)
Chad Jenkins (13)
Ryan Shopshire (4)
Richmond (4) and Litsch (2)
Marcus Walden (DL)

Lansing:
Ryan Tepera (22)
Ryan Shopshire (24)
Dave Sever (22)
Matt Fields (19)
Egan Smith (14)
Chad Jenkins (13)
Drew Hutchison (5)
Casey Lawrence (2)
Daniel Webb (2)
John Anderson and Josh Wells (DL)

Auburn:
Daniel Webb (12)
Sam Strickland (12)
Jesse Hernandez (11)
Drew Hutchison (10)
Casey Lawrence (10)
Sean Nolin (6)
Misual Diaz (5)
Asher Wojciechowski (3)
Egan Smith (2)
Aaron Sanchez (2)

GCL:
Nick Purdy (10)
Jose Vargas (10)
Devy Estrada (8)
Misual Diaz (8)
Aaron Sanchez (8)
Noah Syndergaard (5)
Tyler Powell (5)
Sean Nolin (1)

Also disabled - Dustin McGowan and Sam Dyson
Somewhere there will also be Deck McGuire, Griffin Murphy, Mitchell Taylor, Zach Adams, Myles Jaye, and Adonis Cardona

that's 54 bodies for 40 spots, not counting 2011 draftees.

let me try again, looking at the stats this time - this is opening day only:

Tor: Romero / Morrow / Cecil / Litsch / Zep

LV: Drabek / Stewart / Mills / Richmond / Reyes (Ray, maybe Perez)

NH: Carreno / Bell / Boone / Ethridge (FA) / Gonzolez (or LaMura or MacDonald)

Dunedin: Jenkins / Alvarez / Liebel / Tepera / Fields
(at this point there begin to be a lot of excess bodies who were not really worthy of promotion, including Page, Sever, and Shopshire)

Lansing: McGuire / Woj / Hutchison / Smith / Webb / Lawrence(i know that's six names)

Vancouver: Sanchez / Syndergaard / Murphy / Nolin / Estrada

Bluefield: Diaz / Purdy / Vargas / Hernandez / Strickland

GCL: Cardona / Taylor / Adams / Jaye / Powell

And that doesn't include any of the DL guys from last year. Dunno what to do with Steve Raburn either.

In a good year, Jenkins and McGuire are promoted in tandem , Woj is right on his heels (or vice-versa) and Alvarez might move up after the break. Whoever is doing best in Vancouver likewise move up as McGuire and Woj vacate spots.If that's early enough, then maybe it affects the placement of guys on the lower two teams.

I don't know how much of this is different than what Gerry said but I find it easier to just start from scratch then to go through and say "I agree with this but not with that" which would be too confusing.

bpoz - Saturday, February 12 2011 @ 09:27 AM EST (#230196) #

Excellent work TamRa. Thanks. We do seem to have a lot of pitchers and good ones in Dunedin and lower.

I assume that most have attended these mini camps and instructional sessions after some time off. That should/could change some evaluations on where they are placed.
The NH candidates seem experienced but not top notch prospects. They hopefully keep that team in playoff contention until higher ranked prospects challenge for promotion.

Jdog - Saturday, February 12 2011 @ 10:14 AM EST (#230197) #

I'll personally be shocked if Deck doesn't start the year in at least High A, and I think we could see him quickly make it to AA. All the scouting reports have Deck as being very polished, while Jenkins was seen more as a raw college guy. I'd like Asher and Deck to start in Dunedin and Sanchez in Lansing.

ayjackson - Saturday, February 12 2011 @ 10:22 AM EST (#230198) #

I think the question of where Sanchez starts is one of how many competitive innings they want on his arm this year. It will be interesting to see if this regime has a specifc recipe for HS pitchers.

I think from a talent perspective, the MWL wouldn`t hamper his development. It`s all about innings on a young arm.

#2JBrumfield - Saturday, February 12 2011 @ 10:35 AM EST (#230199) #

Here's a feature on Amhertsburg, Ontario's Zack Breault - a 22 year-old free agent right-hander the Jays signed last September.

jeffr - Saturday, February 12 2011 @ 01:08 PM EST (#230201) #

The 5th strater name missing from the stream here is Jo-Jo Reyes. AA is obviously high on him to include in the deal last summer and he is out of options. I'd put him right in the mix with Zep and Jesse L with Drabek as the 4th starter.

R Billie - Sunday, February 13 2011 @ 02:08 PM EST (#230228) #

I think I read somewhere that Cardonis will pitch 2011 in North America, which I expect means the GCL. It will be interesting to see if he can earn some time in a full-season league this year but that's probably overly optimistic.

cybercavalier - Sunday, February 13 2011 @ 02:45 PM EST (#230229) #

Very good report from Gerry and Dave. Excellent work, TamRa.

TamRa - Sunday, February 13 2011 @ 03:05 PM EST (#230232) #

I think I read somewhere that Cardonis will pitch 2011 in North America, which I expect means the GCL.

It's Cardona, and our very own Gerry was the source of tat info, IIRC.

Excellent work, TamRa.

I had been thinking on doing a take on the minor league rosters myself and almost abandoned the idea since I knew it would be thoroughly done here once it started. But there was enough I had a different take on that I went ahead with it (albeit in a somewhat different format) if you are interested...

http://thesouthpawbaseball.blogspot.com/2011/02/projected-rosters-first-look.html

cybercavalier - Sunday, February 13 2011 @ 09:48 PM EST (#230237) #

Thanks.

BTW, please let me know if my posts are too assertive or condescending. Sometimes I meant to put my points or views across and always be friendly.

2011 Minor League Players - Starting Pitchers | 27 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.