The lesson, as always...

Nobody knows anything.

Always a good idea to remember that.

 Who will be this years Bautista and Hill?

This year's Bautista will be Hill and this year's Hill will be Bautista.  How's that for a prediction?  I hope this year's Bautista will be both Hill and Bautista!

So are you still confident?  Who will be this years Bautista and Hill?

Bautista is the only position player left who could possibly be this year's Hill/Lind (I'm reading that as total season crippling busts), since no one else on the roster had very good offensive year in 2010, even the new guys. 

There are a lot of Bautistas (break-outs) that could happen. I can't count Hill and Lind even if they return to 2009 form, since that was only 2009. Encarnacion is as close to a situational match to Bautista as it may be possible to find  - no one thinks he'll get full-time playing time, hit a lot of HRs in the last month of 2010 (8 in Sept/Oct), plays at best a passable 3B, heck, he's even about the same age and most have given up on him. So he's my pick.

Pitching - I think Cecil is the most likely to go either way. He could bounce his K-rate up a bit (to league average or more) and be the top guy, or could be the Todd Stottlemyre of this generation (always seemingly almost putting it together and being more than mediocre, but never...quite...getting there). I think Morrow is what we've already seen (high K, high BB, essentially a more likable AJ Burnett type) - the good part of this is that just by pitching the same, his ERA is likely to drop. But Morrow is almost too obvious to pick as a possible breakout pitcher.

Oh, and I think this year's team looks worse as of right now, but that's probably because the Hill/Lind stink from last year is still hanging around, and I thought the pitching got lucky last year (lack of major injuries). Franchise looks better, not sure about the team.

 

Are you still confident?

It depends what is meant.  After the Marcum trade, it was pretty clear to me that the club wasn't making a special effort to go for it in 2011.  What would be a successful 2011 then?  Maybe 83 wins and the development of several of the younger players into stars, let's say Snider, Morrow and Zep.  That would set the stage for a run in 2012.

I've often thought that it would fun -- and humbling -- for us to have an annual thread where each of us admits our stupidest predictions of the previous year.  Although I don't engage in the annual "predict how many games the Jays will win" contest, and although I never predicted that Bautista would be a bust as a starter in the 2010 season, I still made my share of mistakes.  For example, I predicted -- on the basis of the first couple of months of Zach Stewart's 2010 season -- that he was over-rated and would lose his "top prospect" status.  Wrong.  I also predicted that Anthopolous would make a serious effort to sign John Buck as the 2011 catcher.  Wrong.  I'm sure there were more errors, too, if I went over everything I said in 2010.

The main conclusion is, baseball can't be predicted.  Which is why I am always so skeptical of the statistical analysis that attempts to predict the future on the basis of past performance.  So many players fluctuate so dramatically, from season to season, that it's really impossible to make predictions for the future.  Even when a player has recorded 10 consistent seasons of above-average performance, anyone who predicts an 11th consecutive season is likely to be sabotaged by an injury or slump or other factor.  Youneverknow.

What would be a successful 2011 then?

I'll take a .500 record, and a real centerfielder.

Escobar and Drabek will have down years; Napoli and Romero will excel.

Having said that, the opposite may be true.

.....the development of several of the younger players into stars, let's say Snider, Morrow and Zep.....

See, here's my quibble with this:  it still doesn't help much for 2012 if a player has a good season in 2011.  Look at Lind and Hill:  great seasons in 2009, yet both had terrible seasons in 2010.  Or look at the dramatic swings in Vernon Wells' performance from season to season.  Just when you think that a player has established himself, he will suffer an injury or slump and you're back at the old drawing board.

There's this common notion that a rebuilding season can "tell us what we have" for future seasons.  Well, sorry, it often doesn't tell you much for the future.  Questions are never permanently answered.  A lot of the questions that seemed answered in 2009 were actually not much guidance for 2010.  If anyone thinks that a season's main value is "answering the questions" about young prospects or mid-career veterans -- they're likely to be disappointed.  I'd still argue that a season's main value is....  simply the wins and losses, and the enjoyment of following the game.

It's still fun to speculate and guess.  But let's not pretend that there are scientific answers.

Great Article.

Is it too much to ask for players to perform to what is expected. I guess we really dont know what is expected of Lind, Hill and Buatista which makes it such an intruging case. These guys all have inconsitant track records. Personall I see Bautista mainting his power. I think he could hit 40+ again. He has always had a good eye at the plate as well which I feel leads good pitches to hit. I predict a slash line of .255/.355/.550. I think (hope) Lind will bounch back. I dont think hitting .305/.370/.562 was a fluke and I think he will come back to repeating those. .290/.350/.510 would make me happy. I think Aaron Hill will also bounce back. I dont know if he will ever get back to 2009 production, but i would be really happy even with a 2007 season. I think he will keep his 20+ homer streak going. I mean this is a guy who had a horrible season yet hit 26 out last year. Wouldnt surprise me if he gets back on track to hit 30+ again. I can handle the low OBP if he hits down in the order with guys on base. He could be really productive in that scenario.

I know its not really a sleeper or anything but I expect (hope) Snider finally figures it out. He has shown he has tremendous power. If he can get it going is 40+ Hr's out of the the question? I would say no.

A successful 2011 would not guarantee a 2012 season either on a team or player level.  Guarantees are not the point.  The point is (hopefully) for Rogers to show that it is willing to spend on a winning team when the time is right, and with a successful 2011, the time may be right next year.

I am content with the Blue Jay centerfield situation of the next 5 years- with Davis, Mastroianni, Gose and Marisnick, they are in fine shape.  There is not a whole lot of middle infield depth in the upper levels of the organization.  I wonder if Carlos Perez will make the Craig Biggio transition from catcher to second base this year. 

with Davis, Mastroianni, Gose and Marisnick, they are in fine shape.

Not proven. They have some things they can try, yes, and any or all of them might work out great. Hasn't happened yet.

I'd say the same thing about the middle infield situation. Partly depends on where Lawrie ends up.

The difference is, at least in the middle infield they've got Hill and Escobar to hold the fort, but in center field they've got... who? Davis, I guess, and I'm not yet sold on him.

I'm banking on Snider breaking out and doing this year what Bruce did last year.  Snider's going to hit around 35 homers and have a slash line close to .290/.360/.525.

I don't see Hill bouncing back.  At least not until he puts Troy Glaus' stick back on the rack and remembers that he's 5'10" 200 lbs.  I expect a very low average and OBP with 20+ homers again as long as he continues to wield the claymore and swing for the fences.

Lind will rebound, and his numbers will look even better if he platoons and faces righties almost exclusively.

Bautista will regress a lot.  He might hit a little over 30 homers but his average and OBP will drop.

That's what I think, but like you say, we don't know anything.  Only time will tell.

It looks like Lawrie is being moved to third base. 

As for not being sold on Davis, he's got a career line of .281/.330/.383 in a poor hitting environment and, of course he runs very well and is at least average defensively.  That is pretty much an average centerfielder.  As compared with Vernon Wells, he is likely to get on base more, steal bases more effectively, hit with much less power and play a better defensive centerfield. 

I see Hill, Lind $ Snider as talented players, so if they are healthy enough to get the ABs then their numbers could show a big improvement. So I pick Hill to be the Bautista.

The only guy left with big enough 2010 numbers to drop the way Hill did is J Bautista. IMO he is the only candidate so I pick Bautista to be Hill.

I agree that this is hopefully the year of Travis. If he can stay healthy, I do see him breaking out into that .850-.900ops big bopper for us that can at some point slot in comfortable to the 3rd or 4th spot in the order.

I think he'd probably have broke out to that level last year if he had managed to avoid the injury that stopped him just when he was getting on a roll.

....he's got a career line of .281/.330/.383 in a poor hitting environment and, of course he runs very well and is at least average defensively.  That is pretty much an average centerfielder.....

Good points about Davis.  I tend to agree.  Looking back at the Bauxite reaction when the Jays acquired him, it's a little odd that so many people assumed he would be merely the 4th outfielder.  I always believed he was likely to be a regular or semi-regular in the 2011 lineup.  He filled so many needs that the team had lacked.  Now that Anthopolous has thrown him a $6-million contract, it's obvious that AA had a higher opinion of Davis than many of us.

He's paying Davis about the same as he's paying your boy EE.

....He's paying Davis about the same as he's paying your boy EE.....

Actually not correct.  He's given Davis a two-year guaranteed contract of $5.25 million, plus a minimum $500,000 if he buys out the 3rd year, so that's nearly $6-million guaranteed.  Encarnacion, by contrast, is getting only $2.5-million in a one-year deal, plus a $500,000 buyout for the 2nd year.  So, the contract for Davis is worth nearly twice as much money as the contract for Encarnacion.  Seems like a pretty significant difference.

Another way of looking at it:  Anthopolous gave a 50% pay cut to EE, while he's giving Davis a salary that's nearly twice as much as last season.

For predictions I've been good on my team previews, calling Houston in 2008 to be above 500 when everyone said below and calling San Diego to contend for the west (I said win it) this year when virtually everyone said they'd suck while calling the Dodgers to crash and burn (I called 82 wins they got 80).

However I haven't been as good on the Jays, calling for high 80's when they won 75 and for around 500 this past year. And if anyone looked into the details of my predictions they'd see a lot of misses on individual players :P

For 2011 I'd call low 80's as they drop after a jump normally, but I do like a lot of the guys and would lean towards the Jays doing what Tampa did a few years ago and jump over 90 at long last. Eh, official predictions will come at the end of spring when we actually know who will be out there. AA has proven we just can't predict him.

For a prediction of a different sort, here is some news that could mean a Triple-A affiliate in Canada for the Jays in the near future.  The Las Vegas Review-Journal says the 51's are on the block.

Looking back at the Bauxite reaction when the Jays acquired him, it's a little odd that so many people assumed he would be merely the 4th outfielder.

At the time, it looked like his primary defensive position - centre field - was kinda occupied. Little did we know. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who has a consistently poor record of predicting the future. (As anybody who has played Rotisserie baseball with me knows, my track record is Pirates-esque.) But this year looks even less certain than past years. The Jays could get very good in a hurry, or they could regress to being the 70-win team we expected them to be in 2010. Who knows?

One thing that's worth mentioning: the Jays were mostly healthy in 2010, which may explain why they did better than expected. There weren't entire squadrons of starting pitchers dropping like flies, for example. I can't imagine that the Jays will be so lucky this year. What happens, for example, if Bautista tears a ligament in the first week of the season?

our stupidest predictions of the previous year.

Hey, I once predicted Oliver Perez as the NL Cy Young winner. In the Stupid Predictions category, that's practically a Lifetime Achievement Award...

Actually not correct.  He's given Davis a two-year guaranteed contract of $5.25 million, plus a minimum $500,000 if he buys out the 3rd year, so that's nearly $6-million guaranteed.  Encarnacion, by contrast, is getting only $2.5-million in a one-year deal, plus a $500,000 buyout for the 2nd year.  So, the contract for Davis is worth nearly twice as much money as the contract for Encarnacion.  Seems like a pretty significant difference.

Another way of looking at it:  Anthopolous gave a 50% pay cut to EE, while he's giving Davis a salary that's nearly twice as much as last season.

And another way of looking at it is that AA gave both the same salary this year.

this "other" way could also be called the "correct" way of looking at it.

and of course EE also got a $3.5m club option for 2012 with a similar $500k buyout like Davis received.

RD (30): '11 $2.5, '12 $2.75, '13 $3.0 ($0.5bo)
EE (28): '11 $2.5, '12 $3.5 ($0.5bo)

Call me crazy, but those 2 contracts don't seem to me to be the result of a GM looking at one as a fulltime starter, and the other as bench fodder.

Who ever said that EE was bench fodder?  Not me.  Maybe he is and maybe he isn't, but we won't know for a few weeks.

But if you think there's no difference between a one-year contract and a two-year contract, I'm not sure what to say.   Anthopolous knows the value of a dollar, and he's giving an extra 2.75-million of them to Davis. 

One thing that's worth mentioning: the Jays were mostly healthy in 2010, which may explain why they did better than expected.

I have to disagree here. Us Blue Jays fans are kind of like battered wives when it comes to injuries. Even just a normal spate of injuries seems like an unbelievable streak of health to us.

2010 saw our starting rotation lose one pitcher for the whole year (Litsch), 15-day DL stints to Marcum and Rzepczynski, and a spring injury to Cecil which held him back almost a month. Not to mention that 2-3 of our young pitchers were shut down early due to innings limits - which aren't injuries per se but are still healh related.  Purcey and Tallet also had DL stints of the relievers.

2010 also saw Snider and EE miss major time to injuries, and all of Buck, Hill, and Lewis getting DL stints as well.

That's not an incredibly healthy season, IMO, that's pretty much average.   Of course, we Jays fans have been so used to experiencing multiple season-ending injuries every year that it seems like we were a medical miracle last year.

Who ever said that EE was bench fodder?  Not me.  Maybe he is and maybe he isn't, but we won't know for a few weeks.

But if you think there's no difference between a one-year contract and a two-year contract, I'm not sure what to say.   Anthopolous knows the value of a dollar, and he's giving an extra 2.75-million of them to Davis. 

Again, call me crazy, but I don't think many people other than yourself would look at those two contracts and suggest that the GM considers those two players significantly different.

I'm so embarrassed, sort of. I think I'm out of the prognostication game.

With the 51s on the block, what exactly would the options be leading to another Canadian franchise?  It's a PCL team, and the logical place for a triple A PCL team in Canada would be Vancouver.  You could theoretically try to move the NWL team into Calgary, Lethbridge or Medicine Hat. Or you could try to move the triple A team into Calgary.  I wonder how a Calgary Blue Jays triple A affiliate would do with the advantage of Rogers' marketing. 

"The Jays could get very good in a hurry, or they could regress to being the 70-win team we expected them to be in 2010. Who knows?"

Even if the Jays become a 70-odd (I'd be surprised if they go under 75) win team, I think regression here is not the right term. Removing Wells and Marcum from the team are some pretty serious subtractions and are only being replaced with question marks in Davis/Drabek. If AA kept the team intact and I don't think it would be that unreasonable for the team to exceed last years' win total, this year, I'm fairly certain. To use a phrase that many don't like -- the "true talent level" of this team is less than it was in 2010.

...but youneverknow.

Well, it's not too tough to come up with a scenario where the Jays are actually better than they were last year. You'd be counting on good health and bouncebacks and stuff, of course, but you wouldn't be assuming anything outlandish. I don't really think that's what's going to happen, but certainly they shouldn't be too bad. .500 is a perfectly reasonable goal.

wow...another trade? Napoli for Francisco

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

yeesh.

I guess that means byebye to Frasor. At least Francisco dominates lefties.

but man, we need some bats. not more relievers. Napoli was a very good fit here.

Re Mike Green:

IMO and according to the information revealed to the public, the Jays organization just miss a boat recently by staying with Vegas 51s while Portland Beavers was up for sale in July 2010. That team in portland could have been bought and moved to Canada while the Padres would be pairing with Vegas. But the window of chance and timing was very slim anyway as the Padres headed a group to buy the Beavers with clear intention to move it to California. AA et al. would have to beat and convince that group.

As long as baseball as a sport is gaining influence in Canada by means including Rogers' marketing, the Jays' on-field performance, the chance of getting a Canadian AAA baseball team is optimistic. In the end, the Jays was an expansion franchise back in 1977; why couldn't Vancouver, Calgary or one of the cities in the Prairies to get itself an expansion ?

What?!!!!!

Napoli is here to stay. We need more bats.

Why would the AAA leagues expand? The way things work now, there's exactly one AAA team per major league team. If the minor leagues expand, who's going to affiliate the extra teams?

They could be independently run, I guess, but I haven't heard that minor league baseball is such a gold mine that such a team could make a go of it. It'd be hard for them to get AAA-caliber players, for one thing.

I am not a fan of this move. Although there was probably one too many defensively-limited bodies for the corners, I thought Napoli fit better than others with his ability to play catcher and the fact he could spell Lind against left-handers.

I was happy with our bullpen as it was. I don't see the need for another reliever, particularly one who isn't a significant upgrade over our current bodies. I guess this means Frasor will be let go or someone else will be traded, but it seems like a hefty price to get slightly improved production. To give up two years of Napoli's bat for the upgrade from Frasor (or whomever) to Francisco seems strange.

Napoli for Francisco seems like a backward move to me.

(unless more is coming, though I don't think so)

AA don't get carried away.

With the 51s on the block, what exactly would the options be leading to another Canadian franchise?

You forgot Edmonton!  The Oilers, who own the independent Edmonton Capitals, have expressed interest in getting back into the PCL to relive the glory days of the Trappers.

Granted, it's not the best location but Telus Field seems like a much nicer park than Cashman Field in Las Vegas.

It seems Napoli for Francisco is true.

I guess the thought is that Texas really wins that deal, but AA doesn't care. Molina is the backup catcher, EE backs up at 1st/DH and may be a big long-term find of power plus defense. One of Napoli or EE is a logjam. AA obviously has a good opinion of Francisco's future relief potential, and we needed that, and Napoli is tradeable but EE and Rivera aren't really, so...

The thing is, we now have a late-inning logjham with a bunch of "alomst" guys: Dotel, Rauch, Francisco, Frasor, maybe Purcey. Except for Purcey, all have been closers, but never top-tier guys. Maybe one emerges in 2011. More likely, we have to sign a top-tier closer in 2012 or beyond. Guess we'll see.

True Matt E. My mind was ahead of myself.

Re Katman: it is true.

There was a great quote from Anthopoulos on the Rauch signing that applies both to the theme of "we don't know anything" and this latest bullpen move:

“Who knows what kind of spring training, what happens with respect to health, DL time? ... To try and make those determination in spring training, we’re not that good. If we were that good, we wouldn’t sign certain guys. We wouldn’t extend players and give them multi-year deals if we were that certain what kind of year they were going to have. It’s a humbling game. The more you think you’re starting to get it, the more you realize how wrong you can be at times."

(http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/923444--griffin-rauch-signing-a-nice-fit-for-blue-jays)

It's a nice bit of humility that I rarely see from many analysts. But as to the Francisco move: Even if there are no more moves, the Jays go into spring with a few too many decent relievers. At that point, they can pick & choose among the healthy and effective; if someone flames out or gets hurt, no big deal; if they have too many good pitchers... well, that's not really a problem. And they have so few salary commitments for the next few years that it's not the worst move to have to eat someone's salary.

Great topic and post Gerry. Just because "we don't know anything" doesn't mean we should be shy about proving it!

It's nice to see a little bit of love in this thread  for Davis. I think he has an excellent chance to have the same kind of unexpectedly good season that Gonzalez and Buck had last year. He hasn't had so much experience that his profile is written in stone, or at least wet cement, and I think there are several factors potentially working in his favour. He's replacing 80-90 games on grass, in poor hitting parks, with 80-90 games on artificial turf in Toronto and Tampa. He's a predominant GB hitter playing in a division where the left side of opposing infields is not occupied by players with a lot of range, especially at shortstop. There's no reason to expect him to turn into a walk machine, but he makes pretty good contact. His RH/LH career split is not extreme and in his best season, only two years ago, he had a better OPS vs. righties (.789 vs..773) and an OBP vs. righties of .352. There's no reason yet to think of him as only a platoon candidate. The predominance of RH starting pitchers in the AL East will make him a better SB threat. He's no Devon White but the difference in his range vs. Wells will be obvious and if he doesn't get too reckless in trying to turn hits into outs, he'll be a big plus defensively. Crazy prediction: .350ish OBP, scores 90-100 runs and sets a club record for SBs.

Lind could certainly bounce back to 2009 levels. He had a horrible 2010 but I trust his swing and I don't believe his hitting genes have suddenly disappeared. He may never hit lefties but that's not as big a deal as many believe. The Jays last year faced LH pitching only about 22 percent of the time, less than any other AL team, the other AL East teams by a wide margin. That disparity is not likely to change given the current rosters and the Jays'  RH lineup. As for his defense, I don't see any reason he can't be at least average defensively with extra work. It's not as if players can't or don't improve or that he's been given much of a chance so far at an easy position to play. Even lumbering Billy Butler has improved with playing time. Lind played first a bit in college, he's only 27 years old, and he'll be motivated. Being considered strictly a DH, particularly a platoon DH, significantly reduces his earning potential and value to the team, so it makes sense in a non-contending season to give him the opportunity to be the full-time 1B. Between 1B and DH I expect him to be in the lineup for at least 140 games, most of those at 1B. Crazy prediction: leads the Jays in OPS (.900ish).

Disappointment of 2011? Unpleasant to think about but I'll guess Rivera and Arencibia. Rivera might never play for the Jays and, if he's on the roster, be a Randy Ruiz type of disappointment to those expecting him to contribute.  He's immobile now in the field, his career numbers have benefitted from being spotted in lineups against a lot of LH pitching, he can't run the bases. Prediction: he's traded before Opening Day or early in the season for PTBNL or a middling prospect  Arencibia could pull a Saltalamacchia and play his way out of starting consideration, struggle at the plate and sooner rather than later be replaced by Molina or somebody not yet on the roster. The pitching staff is very young, the key to competitivenes this year and in the future, and would benefit again from a veteran catcher. The lineup can carry a no-hit catcher, not one who can't call a game or field pitches in the dirt. The Jays have to find out what they have in JPA first., but it may not take very long. Prediction: starts 40 games, hits low .200s and half a dozen HRs, sent back to LV or traded mid-season.

Hitting

Surprise = E5 - This kid is still a kid.  He should glimpses of starting to get it last year.  I think he still can. 

Disappointment = Aaron Hill part 2.  I think there is something physically wrong with him.

Pitching ....

Surprise - Rzep - Just a year ago, until he broke his finger, he was projected to be better than Cecil.  He has the tools.  I think he could be our best pitcher

Dissapointment - Litsch - He comes to training camp fatter than David Wells.

I will go with Arencibia as the hitting upside surprise, as no one seems to be too impressed. Last year, he came off a lousy previous year, from injuries, had a great spring, then stated a little slowly, then absolutely took off.

I think he is an intelligent player, and I feel that all of the commentators, here and elsewhere, are going on rumour and guessing, rather than having hard evidence in hand that JPA will be a disappointment.

He will not be a great defensive catcher, and it will take him a while to figure out some of the major league pitching he will face.

But he will have access to some of the best coaching available, offensive and defensive, and the young starters that the Jays will put on the mound sound like they are just fine with throwing to him.

Meanwhile, I project he will make all us believe that his first day in the majors was no fluke at all. Certainly, towards the bottom of the Jays order, and with all the other hitters around him, he will get good pitches to hit.

The biggest hitting disappointment? Not Bautista - I see him making everyone who doubts him now eat their words. In fact, it would not surprise me to see him hit more home runs than last year. The only arguments I have heard about why he will decline all sum up to the view that last year was improbable, so repeating it will be more so.

I think next year's Hill could be Escobar. He has all the potential to return to the heights of his early Atlanta years, but something about his attitude makes me worry about how committed to improving he will turn out to be.

Next year's pitcher surprise, on the upside, could be our newest Jay, Francisco. I think he will come in with a lot to prove, that he was better than the Rangers knew, when they traded him. He will find that, no longer having to pitch at home in Texas, he could make a substantial impact for this club of young starters. With Rauch and Purcey barring the 8th inning door, he could find himself in a large number of save situations. If so, he will get it done.

The pitching disappointment this next year? I have no big expectations of Litsch, so he doesn't qualify, for me. Shawn Camp, I suppose, as someone who will fall well off the pace, in the days when he was Cito's golden-haired boy.

It is interesting to me how if the topics at Da Baux arise in one way, I become very unemotional and even-handed in my projections - I make the case on another thread that the Jays will not be markedly weaker than last year, even if some players like Bautista look likely to decline vs. last year. That is because the decliners should be offset by the advancers.

But if I have to make a straight-up call on JB alone, I actually believe he will be just as good (or even better) than last year. His hitting just got better and better over the year last year, even though pitchers must have figured out where his (relative) weaknesses were.

Of course, it would not surprise me at all if he was traded and started to fulfill my expectations in some National League team before the end of June.

Similarly, JPA occupies one of those positions in which a batting decline is more likely than elsewhere. Yet when I look at him on a stand alone basis, I see him as a guy who could fully rise to his potential and very soon. Probably the expected value of his performance should be better than Wieters in his first full year, but well below his own full potential. But he has a lot of upside that he could reach towards.

Anyway, the value of this question is that we can be held to account one year from now. American journalist Bill Vaughan once said that "the groundhog is like other prophets; it delivers its prediction and then disappears."

Presumably, you won't let us do that.

Me on Jose Bautista, April 16

Jose Bautista's ability to draw walks while doing absolutely nothing else is remarkable. He is walking 24.5% of the time. Certainly, he has an excellent batting eye. But that walk rate raises a serious question: What the hell are all these pitchers afraid of? Bautista's career isolated power is .161, which is certainly higher than I would have guessed. But he's a career .237 hitter. Still, Freddy Garcia went 3-2 on Bautista to open the first. Splitter, ball four. Why? Then he went 3-2 again with a base open in the fourth. Slider, ball four. Then Randy Williams, who at least has the excuse of being lefthanded, went 3-2 on Bautista in the fifth. Slider, ball four. Don't these people have advance scouts? Garcia and Williams were throwing to [Donny] Lucy, who's a rookie and might not know about Bautista's hitting style. But pitchers are allowed to shake catchers off. Bautista now has a wicked-awesome .194/.388/.333 line. He has 12 walks, 8 strikeouts and 7 hits. Until the book gets out, I'm perfectly happy with him batting leadoff in front of murderer's row.

They were pitching around him in April. I think pitchers knew what they were up against all year.

(Link here, I'm not making this up.)

I actually liked Bautista before the homer explosion, which I certainly didn't see coming. From the 2009 Report Card:

An odd player. Obviously a very handy guy to have around. In the day of the 12 man bullpen, a guy who can play all three outfield spots, both corner infield positions, and probably the middle infield in an emergency is pretty useful. He doesn't hit for much of an average, but he gets on base more often than Aaron Hill (not to mention Vernon Wells.) Doesn't have much power to start with, and he showed less than usual this season.

All through the 2009 season I was talking to Mal on the Jays PR crew about Bautista. I kept saying "Isn't he supposed to have a little pop?" Because he'd hit something like 2 HRs over the first five months of the season. And Mal kept saying "Just wait... just wait...."

Hmm... if Vegas is for sale then for $20 million the Jays could gain control of their AAA team. Leave it in Vegas for 2011, then see if you can shift it to the east while a team in the IL moves to the PCL (don't know if any would be willing, but possible).

If they can't move east, then you could look at moving them to Vancouver, or to Edmonton or Calgary or even Winnipeg (bit of a fight with the local independent team though if they do that). However, in all cases there would be stadium upgrades needed and you'd be looking at a lot of travel time. Physically Calgary would probably make the most sense as it is A) in Canada, B) 'just' 2 time zones away, C) a large city, D) furthest south outside of Vancouver. If you check the teams that play in Calgary and Edmonton right now - http://www.pointstreak.com/baseball/attendance.html?leagueid=130&seasonid=242 -though you see just 1700 a game in Calgary and 2000 in Edmonton.

Hrm. Might be best just to wait it out and hope to move back to the IL in 2 years.

Physically Calgary would probably make the most sense as it is A) in Canada, B) 'just' 2 time zones away

How is Calgary "just 2 time zones away" from Vegas? I'm in California, and my sister in Alberta (Grande Prairie). For the last 6+ years, we've always been 1 hour apart..
(Pacific vs. Mountain time)...

If they can't move east, then you could look at moving them to Vancouver, or to Edmonton or Calgary or even Winnipeg (bit of a fight with the local independent team though if they do that). However, in all cases there would be stadium upgrades needed and you'd be looking at a lot of travel time. Physically Calgary would probably make the most sense as it is A) in Canada, B) 'just' 2 time zones away, C) a large city, D) furthest south outside of Vancouver.

Winnipeg doesn't require stadium upgrades and is south of Calgary and evening temperatures (game time) would likely be 5-6 degrees Celcius warmer than Calgary.  The Independent team angle is likely a deal breaker though.  The team makes the Mayor a pretty penny.

As much as I'd love to see a Calgary Blue Jays AAA team, it doesn't seem very likely.  The stadium is an issue as are the travel requirements and the weather.  For most of the summer the evenings get quite cool here which makes it less appealing to go sit outside and watch a game.  There is also the likelihood of snow well into April (along with small chances of snow every other month).  I wouldn't read too much into the attendance of the Vipers as they are an independent team that has been bouncing between leagues and gets no press coverage here.  Back when the Mariners had their PCL affiliate here I think they were fairly well attended.  After that came a steady rotation of other parent teams (Pirates, Marlins and White Sox) over a short period of time before the team moved to Albuquerque to become the Isotopes.  Another issue would be the pitching environment.  Calgary has always played as an extreme hitters park - I think even more so than Vegas (Colorado Springs and Calgary were pretty similar).  Calgary's altitude is between 1000m and 1200m where Vegas is only 615m.  Expect the pitchers to have some issues if they put the team back here.

vw.. I think John meant 2 hours from Toronto to Calgary. Vancouver would be better suited for springtime baseball though I hear it rains there a fair bit ;). Maybe play the early season games in BC Place but then what to do with the short season team thats already here?

Magpie, I am pretty sure that it was you who pointed out last off-season that Bautista had a homer explosion in Sept. 09 and wondered whether it might be a harbinger of something. If that is a miss, it's a closer miss than just about anyone else.

I doubt Vancouver is a realistic option for a AAA team right now.  Nat Bailey Stadium is too small and not up to AAA standards, while B.C. Place is too big and a bit makeshift for baseball.  With all the money spent on sports facilities in Vancouver for the Olympics, I doubt the city/province could justify building a modern AAA ballpark right now.

Calgary/Edmonton/Winnipeg don't really work geographically unless other AAA teams join them in western Canada.  As you can see on the PCL map*, travel would be expensive and require a lot of air travel for road trips.  For AAA call-ups, western Canada (particularly Edmonton or Calgary) wouldn't have a significant advantage over Las Vegas.  While there are a few more direct flights to Toronto from those cities compared to Las Vegas, players would still take some time to arrive, especially when the AAA team is on the road.  If the AAA team stays in the PCL's western conference, most road trips would continue to be to southwestern U.S. cities.

The Blue Jays would be better off if they could return to the International League, even if the team is in an American city.  If the Twins keep putting bad teams on the field in Rochester, that might be a PDC opportunity for the Blue Jays in 2013.  I'm not sure if the Blue Jays would be able to move the 51s to an eastern city (i.e. Ottawa) and the IL without a significant reorganization of the two AAA leagues.  At least one other PCL team would need to agree to make the switch.  Nashville would fit well in the IL, but they might not want to lose their rivalry with Memphis.  New Orleans might be the next-best candidate to shift leagues.  Ultimately a lot of people would need to approve such a move, and it wouldn't be quite as simple as most minor league relocations.


*Please note that while the PCL map has been updated to include the Tucson Padres, the Portland Beavers have not yet been removed.