For what it's worth, in today's Star, Richard Griffin predicts that CF will become a "platoon" between Rajai Davis and Corey Patterson.  I think that's probably wrong -- Patterson's offensive numbers are just too dismal -- but Patterson might make the team as the 4th OF.  He's the logical in-house guy to serve as CF backup.

As for the acquisition of Juan Rivera, it strikes me as remarkably similar to the acquisition of Encarnacion in the Scott Rolen trade.  Both trades were essentially salary dumps, and the Jays were obliged to take the inferior player who was rendered redundant by the arrival of Rolen/Wells.   The Jays had no particular desire for these players -- in fact the Jays were fully aware that EE and Rivera don't provide anything close to the value of their contracts at the time of the trade -- but the Jays had to take them or else those trades wouldn't have worked.  In the case of the Rolen trade, the Jays still kept EE around for a couple seasons -- and now a third season -- because they had nobody better available.  Rivera will stay on the roster if the Jays don't find anyone better, but certainly AA must be looking for ways to get rid of that contract.

The most likely outfield in 2011 is Davis-Snider-Bautista.  (Unless Bautista, too, gets traded in another blockbuster deal.)  In that scenario, the Jays need someone for 3B, whether it's Chavez or Lawrie or someone else, and I'm sure AA is busily on the case.

By trading Vernon Wells, AA has found himself saddled with a $5.25-million problem (Rivera) and a $2.5-million problem (Encarnacion).  Both, as noted above, are somewhat redundant.  I suppose AA said to himself:  even if we have to dump both of those players, the waste of $8-million is nothing compared to the savings of $86-million on the Wells contract.  He might just bite the bullet and get rid of both of them.

On the other hand, as I argued in the other thread, AA might decide to keep EE in a full-time or platoon role for DH or 1B, while Napoli splits time between Catcher and DH.  Ultimately it probably depends on how fast JPA can adjust to the majors.  If he's ready, then Napoli switches full-time to the DH/1B role, while EE is benched or dumped.  Still a small price to pay for unloading the Wells contract.

Can anyone help me see in what way Patterson could be a better bet than Mastroianni? 

I agree with your point that Mastroianni is improving fast -- he had an excellent season last year, he looked good in winter ball, and he won an invitation to the Jays mini-camp in Toronto with the other top prospects this month.  He certainly has potential.  But look at it from Anthopolous' perspective.  He's not hiring a back-up CF to play a lot of games this year, so it's better to choose a veteran who can ride the bench (like DeWayne Wise last year).  Patterson has played 970 major-league games at CF, while Mastroianni has never played a single game above the AA level.  If Mastroianni was to be promoted to the majors this year, he would ride the bench and stagnate.  That's not the best role for a young prospect.  Better to give the job to a reliable veteran, while allowing the young prospect to get lots of playing time in Las Vegas, which would still be a step forward for Mastroianni.

VS LHP

Davis CF

Escobar SS

Bautista 3B

Napoli 1B

EE DH

Rivera RF

Hill 2B

Snider LF

JPA C

Davis CF

Escobar SS

Bautista RF

Snider LF

Lind 1B

Napoli DH

Chavez 3B

Hill 2B

Molina C (he of the significant reverse splits over the last three years)

I like the idea of aquiring assets that can maybe be traded for something later.  Vlady would come at a good price right now.  Now that is a bat off the bench!  But they have to be valuable assets.  I am not sure what Chavez does but pushes out a bat that we could be grooming in AAA.  Actually, he just makes the training staff busier.... 

On the other end of the scale, we do need to move some of the AAA assets up to see what they can do and make room for the next generation.  I have always hated it when people talk about these strong farm systems and they do nothing with them.  If you are not going to contend, then lets see what we have in AAA!

I think Rivera is going to play pretty regularly in the OF.  He's a better hitter than a lot of people think.  Just looking at some career numbers for the 3 players involved in the trade.  Career OPS - Wells .804, Rivera .789 and Napoli .831. 

I always like to look at career numbers on the road to eliminate park factors as much as possible.  Particularly in a case like this where 1 player has played his whole career in a pretty good hitters' park and the other 2 have played in a pretty bad hitters' park.  Career road OPS - Wells .767, Rivera .802, Napoli .837.  I'm not convinced Wells is going to hit much, if any, better than Rivera did for Anaheim.  Wells is faster and a better outfielder, but in the batter's box, there's not much difference between them.  If they give Napoli regular work by not catching him too much, I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 30 HR's. 

Still can't believe the Jays actually pulled this off.  The Giants should call the Angels and see if they want Barry Zito.

Comparing Wells and Rivera's career OPS is about as relevant as comparing their '03, 06 and '10. OPS numbers

Actually, comparing two players career OPS when they are the same age and have been in the big leagues for roughly the same period of time is a VERY relevant comparison.  Certainly FAR more relevant than picking out 3 years at random as you have suggested.  Yikes.

Doubt there's a single scout in all of MLB baseball that would agree with you.

Oh, have you asked them.  Nice of you to speak on their behalf.   

Look at their peak value

Again, you are picking out a smaller item out of the larger sample.  That doesn't improve the comparison, it lessens it.

but do we really want to see that?

Uh, that would be a yes.  The guy has a career better OPS than Wells.  By quite a margin.  Playing in a tougher park.  And he's only 29.  The chance the Arencibia becomes as good a major league hitter as Napoli is pretty small. 

Molina, McDonald, Encarnacion, Rivera, Patterson.  As the team is currently constructed that seems to be the most likely bench IMO.  It assumes an unknown person playing 3B (could be Lawrie or Chavez or someone else) because I assume Bautista is serious when he says he doesn't want to play 3rd and the club would not want to put him there unless they have no other alternative.  He can still be the backup.  It also gives the team 14 hitters.  After the trade yesterday I'm not going to make any guesses about who on the team is next most likely to move anytime soon.

Molina, McDonald, Encarnacion, Rivera, Patterson. 

That's one too many bench players.

I heard from a scout who works for another NL team that the Dodgers were raving about Eric Chavez's tryout today; he swung the bat well and apparently looked healthy after being put through his paces. Also from the scouting grapevine, it sounds as if there is some pretty strong interest in Chavez elsewhere, but I know that Chavez is really excited about the Dodgers, so I hope that's where he lands.

Coming late to the party, but let me say another feather in AA's cap -moving that  contract - remember these moves when some things don't work out - as big a fan of AA as I am - he will make his share of mistakes but so far he is getting straight A's from me.

I think that Napoli is a very movable asset - With EE already in tow as DH/1B - Napoli is likely to be moved - I'm thinking KC who need RH power, have Meche money and no quality catcher - for perhaps Alex Gordon who can play 3rd and give the Jays a 3rd LH bat (Replacing Overbay) and is 4 yrs away from FA and has upside - perhaps AA can expand the deal to include 1 of KC's young LH pitchers.

The Jays are probably stuck with Rivera unless they want to pay a significant part of his contract and I don't see them releasing him and eating that money - If I'm AA , I would be working very hard to move Bautista - this would be very bold because it would upset the fanbase and draw criticism from the media - play Rivera in right and hope that a combination of the friendly confines of Rogers centre,out of Scioscia's doghouse and in a contract year results in a productive season as he had a few yrs. ago.

Now these moves would likely mean the Jays are competing with KC for the #1 pick in 2012, but I'm okay with that if the young talent gets to play and we receive young high upside talent for Bautista.

Napoli is likely to be moved - I'm thinking KC who need RH power, have Meche money and no quality catcher

Recall that Dayton Moore looked at his catching after the 2009 season and decided that he had no quality, despite Olivo's 103 OPS+ and Buck's 104 (albeit in limited AB). His solution to this "problem" was Kendall, who rewarded the team with a predictable 71 OPS+ in 2010 and is going to be paid $3.75M in 2011 for more of the same.

So I guess I'm saying that the world might be inclined to diagnose the Royals' problems differently than would Mr. "Trust the Process" Moore, who might not see Napoli as a good fit.

Napoli because JPA is nearly a copy of him

I disagree with this. Napoli and JPA profile quite differently.

Napoli's career isolated OBP (OBP minus AVG) is 95, meaning that he derives a great deal of value from his ability to draw walks. Arencibia's career minor league isolated OBP is only 44.

If JPA succeeds in the majors, he figures to profile much like Buck, Olivo and their ilk: poor OBP, good SLG. I'd be very surprised to see him coming anywhere remotely close to Napoli's career OPS+ of 118.

I heard from a scout who works for another NL team that the Dodgers were raving about Eric Chavez's tryout today; he swung the bat well and apparently looked healthy after being put through his paces.

This level of unfettered optimism is generally reserved for the first sign of springtime or the first sign of single malt chez Mylegacy.

No mention was made of how Chavez felt the next morning, or if he could even get out of bed.

Chuck,

Can't argue with your comments about Moore and catchers but I'm hoping that he's seen the errors of his way and that Napoli's ability to play 1B (platoon with Kila until Hosmer) will entice him.

I can see Eric Chavez as a DH/LH bench bat - but teams looking at him to play 3rd defensively are looking at fool's gold and almost certain disappointment - I won't take that gamble (maybe a minor league deal) especially on a team playing on artificial surface.

Re: the CF situation on our bench. 

I still maintain what I said in the other thread, which is that Jose Bautista can be the plan B in CF with John Mcdonald as the plan C. Bautista has 72 games (54 starts) there in his career while Johnny Mac is versatile enough to cover us in a pinch. We don't necessarily have to carry a Patterson or Mastroianni just for the sake of having someone who is a "true CF".

I love the idea of flipping Napoli for Gordon, sign me up for that if it is on the table. 

That's one too many bench players.

It's one too many according to the currently accepted standard, which I mentioned.  It's debated whether it's actually a good idea or not, and some teams do choose not to follow it for stretches.

I'm fine with Bautista at 3B or at a corner outfield position. I disagree strongly that he is a serviceable CF in anything but an emergency. And, given Davis' productivity and the fact he started a career-high 133 games last year, the Jays will need a backup CF far more often than only in emergencies.

If Bautista is the CF, the other outfielders would likely be Rivera and Snider. That is a very poor defensive outfield. The team needs a fourth outfielder who is a competent CF.

Jeff Blair's Monday story on the Well's trade is up on the web now.  Here is the key passage:

There is another element to this trade that Anthopoulos won't discuss, yet was the subject of internal discussions as far back as J.P. Ricciardi's final year as GM and even referred to obliquely by some veteran players who passed through the Blue Jays' clubhouse. To understand it, look back to one of the moves Pat Gillick made in 2006, when he took over as Philadelphia Phillies GM and traded Bobby Abreu, one of the team's longest tenured and most productive players.

Of course, finances were a component. But as Gillick reflected on the move in an interview in the Philadelphia Inquirer a few years and one World Series ring later, he noted that, although Abreu was “a good player,” he was also comfortable.

Said Gillick: “He played at a certain level. He looked like he didn't want to make a mistake, like he didn't want to look bad. He just played at that level, and I think he kind of pushed the guys down a little. I think Jimmy [Rollins] and Chase [Utley] were respectful, if that's the word, of Bobby, and when he got out of here, it set a different tone. After the trade, they were the kind of guys who had tenure.”

It is no slight to say that moving Wells now opens the way for players such as Aaron Hill and Romero to leave their imprimatur on this clubhouse. Hill has been painfully deferential to Wells and he needs to have a big year this season.

Anyway, here's a new one for your AA venerating pleasure.

Well done, Dave, on the use of the word venerating and using it in a complete sentence.  Speaking of AA (see what I'm doing here?), here's a piece of news out of Portland that should mean the New Hampshire Fisher Cats and Toronto Blue Jays affiliation will continue into 2014. 

To suggest that Wells' absence will help a player like Aaron Hill take a step forward seems to me to be silly.

I caught a bit of Blair's phone-in segment this morning. Sounds like his comments in today's paper originated with Halladay. He said he talked to Halladay at the 2009 All Star game, who said that when (or "if") he left, it would become Wells' and Hill's team (whatever that means), but suggested that Hill tended to look up (too much) to his "elders" as Blair put it, and in fact that Hill was "deferential" to Wells. (again, Halladay's comments).

Now if that's true, what it actually means to on-field performance of Hill and/or the team as a whole is a question, but it at least seemed signfiicant from Blair's intepretation of Halladay's comments.

In unrelated comments, Blair spoke about how much Anthopolous (and other young GM's) study ("and I do mean literally study", he said) more experiened GM's. And he said that Anthopolous frequently talks/consults with Gillick, both "through" Beeston and directly.

Mentioned that Anthopolous also attends non-Blue Jay arbitration hearings to learn from them.

Ex post facto comments on a guy's leadership skills are always pretty dubious.  Not that I've got the time to do so but if you put together a list of all the claims of "leadership" made about various players over the years, I'd bet dollars to dimes they turn out to be little more than guesses.  Vernon Wells didn't make Adam Lind hit .117 against lefties anymore than he made Jose Bautista hit like Mike Schmidt.  Players are what they are and given that the 2010 Jays pretty obviously OVER-acheived - I challenge anyone to find one major publication that called them to play as well as they did - where is the evidence Wells held anyone back?

I remember when Paul Lo Duca was traded from the Dodgers to the Marlins everyone talked about how "Mr. Heart and Soul" would help boost the Marlins win  and leave a black hole in the LA clubhouse.  The Dodgers made the playoffs and the Marlins piddled away the rest of their season.

Anyone who's ever worked in any sort of an organization - which means all of us - should know that stuff like "leadership" is so chaotic and vague that except for the most poisonous of jerks, it's impossible to tell what the effect of a person leaving or arriving will have.  It's hard enough to measure the leadership skills of a manager, much less a colleague.

I love how GM AA DIDN'T say how he agonized over this trade. <snicker>

I think Vernon should have focused his game by becoming a better defender, baserunner or bulked up and took a corner outfield position. That's just my opinion, though.

GM AA on the Fan- interesting about preliminary trade dialogue and maybe a trade 4-5 months later. I honestly didn't think it took that long to get things done like that. Maybe that's only for "targeted" players rather than we need this part to our club soon.

Toronto gets extra draft picks for Downs (2), Buck, Gregg and Olivo in the 2011 draft.   Our Free Agents for 2012 are / might be Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, Edwin Encarnacion, Juan Rivera and maybe Aaron Hill and Jose Bautista.

1) Jon Rauch should be a Type B.   He might accept arbitration, or he might be good enough to keep another year.

2) Octavio Dotel will turn 38 next off-season.   He might be a Type B, but don't offer arbitration - he will accept.

3) Edwin can hit.   His contract is very friendly.   I don't care if he's a Type B, he stays.

4) If Hill hits as he should in Spring Training, the question of Type A or B status is moot.

5) Does Jose Bautista gain Type A status, or just Type B?   Or does he sign long-term here?

6) Juan Rivera, in this park, with our hitting coach, will have good numbers.   They might be better than his 2009 stats.   He might be our only Type B free agent, lets's not piss this away.   He plays 450 - 500 ABs, mostly in LF.

This gives us an Outfield of Juan Rivera - Left, Rajai Davis - Center, Travis Snider - Right and ????? - 4th OF.   I think Snider can play Right.   Let's see how good he can become.   And Bautista http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bautijo02.shtml is good enough, with our coaching staff, to play 3B (357 G - 3B; 325 G - OF).   If he comes close to repeating his 2010 season, he'll earn Werth money.