Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

A quick look at the rosters as they stand for the AL East teams.

Boston and Baltimore look like they're ready to go. On paper it's easy to see why the Red Sox are being looked upon as favourites for the division, their lineup is stacked and the bullpen should be greatly improved. Baltimore could be quite frisky this year, the additions of Lee, Reynolds and Hardy give them a solid infield after last years disaster. On paper this is the best Orioles team I can remember seeing for quite a while.
The Yankees and Rays have some questions marks. The Yankees rotation looks very thin, I cannot imagine they'll go into the year with Nova and Mitre both starting - and reports have them talking to Bonderman and Jeff Francis among others. The Rays are the most intriguing. Although they are cutting payroll they presumably have the Matt Garza arb money to spend, and are probably in the market for a DH and a closer-type reliever. If they were to add, say, Vlad and Brian Fuentes they could be a very strong team again.

Just eyeballing the rosters I think the AL East is going to be even tougher than usual this year.

Posted by Gwyn on Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 10:10 AM EST.

AL East Rosters | 94 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 10:17 AM EST (#228685) #

I know that it doesn't mean anything for this purpose, but please don't put Davis in right and Wells in center in these charts, Gwyn. That may be what ends up happening, but at this point, it ought to be discouraged.

I agree completely that the division is likely to be stronger in 2011 than in 2010, and it wasn't too shabby last year.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 10:50 AM EST (#228686) #

Posada's going to DH, really? That hurts the Yankee lineup in two places. If he can, he'll catch 120 games ...

James W - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 10:53 AM EST (#228687) #

If he can...

Don't worry, he can't.

Snideness aside, the Yankees reportedly told him he's not a catcher any more; that they only planned on using him as a DH.

allcanadian34 - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 11:07 AM EST (#228689) #

Who would have thought that an infield featuring Evan Longoria would arguably be the weakest in the division? Wow.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 11:11 AM EST (#228690) #

Scary question for Jays fans ...

Is there a single position in that chart where the Jays clearly have the best talent in the division?

Gotta say "no" ...

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 11:15 AM EST (#228691) #

Okay, MAYBE backup catcher, with Molina. Maybe. And you can make an argument for 6th starter (though I like Sonnanstine) and LHRP -- though on that last point, who the hell knows?

codyla - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 11:25 AM EST (#228692) #

If Derek Jeter struggles as much as he did last year, I think Yunel Escobar has a chance to be possibly the best SS in the division.

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 11:28 AM EST (#228693) #

No, there is not a single position where the Jays have clearly the best talent in the division. Subjectively, I like Snider to be right there with Crawford for best season among the leftfielders and I like Cecil to have easily the best season among the listed 3rd starters, but even that is a function of how you line up the pitchers. Matusz isn't really a fifth starter and Bucholz isn't really a fourth starter.

MatO - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 11:33 AM EST (#228694) #

Is there a single position in that chart where the Jays clearly have the best talent in the division?

Well. I like ?? considerably more than the other teams' backups.

James W - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 12:38 PM EST (#228697) #

Looking at the lists, I had to determine if Escobar was better than Scutaro. I think he will be.

For backup C, John Jaso wins, Molina isn't close.

Jonny German - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 12:45 PM EST (#228698) #

I'm still hoping a starting third baseman will magically appear for Toronto. This will put the Jays in strong contention for best right fielder and the clear frontrunner in 4th outfielder.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 12:58 PM EST (#228699) #

Re James W.: Lowrie is waiting to take over SS and Scutaro is a BoSox for a more year, according to his current contract. Still I think Escobar is better than Lowrie. For backup C, I still think Alex A. needs to bring in another batter (the ??) who, ideally, can play multiple position including catching. I was thinking a Jake Fox type of player, but Fox is an Oriole. Ryan Budde is signed for catching depth (If a backup at AAA is truly needed, I prefer Guillermo Quiroz based on similar defensive stats and age. Maybe Josh Bard for his on-base ability and switching hitting. But those two are playing for organizations not the Jays.) Or Gabe Gross is an outfield depth in AAA.

CeeBee - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 01:02 PM EST (#228700) #

I suppose Snider, Escobar and Bautista have a chance to be the best at position, especially if Bautista ends up back in right and doesn't fall of the table. Morrow and Cecil could be the best as well with good/great years and /or injuries to other teams pitchers. Wells could I suppose if he had that one monster year... no, I'm dreaming..... sorry.

lexomatic - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 01:12 PM EST (#228701) #

Hill could range anywhere from first to fifth at 2B, depending on the seasons they all have, but I expect he is going to be duking it out with Roberts for 3rd place.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 01:26 PM EST (#228703) #

I hate Vernon Wells, have never liked him believe me, but I'd argue he's in the discussion for best CF. Escobar, Bautista and Snider have potential to be the best at their respective positions too.

Parker - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 01:34 PM EST (#228706) #

Is Russell Martin really a better catcher than Francisco Cervelli at this point?

Kelekin - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 03:08 PM EST (#228713) #

The one thing that I believe is the Rays will be 3rd again this year if they run out that offense. While I do think Dan Johnson has potential for one good year and is an adequate replacement, Brignac has -never- been an offensive stud. Rodriguez even less so. That's a terrible 2B/SS combo offensively.

I'd argue that the Rays do have the best catching tandem in the AL though, offensively. Jaso is basically what I always hoped Jeroloman would be for us, and if Shoppach rebounds it's always nice to have a power hitting back-up C. People may disagree with me on this though.

The Sox and Yankees have scary offenses - though their rotations remain a question. I'd argue that Boston's will have a better chance to bounce back, and while Hughes will get better, someone in the Yankees rotation will falter as always.

I'm most interested in seeing how the Orioles do. People shouldn't forget about Matusz, who was the top pitching prospect behind Strasburg. Britton, Arrieta and Tillman will all be one year older. Lee and Reynolds will add power to a team that lacked it. I don't think they're going to be amazing, I just think it's the best Orioles squad in a long time.

lexomatic - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 03:29 PM EST (#228714) #

Sorry Kelekin, Brignac WAS an offensive stud.. .in A ball. He was supposed to be a good hit, maybe field prospect. Now he's a decent field, maybe hit young player. Rodriguez is a utility infielder, starting because there's nobody else. Brignac could still be a utility infielder, because there's nobody else.
According to the numbers, Zobrist has been unreal defensively at 2b as well as in RF. I wouldn't be surprised to see him shift back there, and the Rays grab a cheap productive RF (the easier position to fill, by far).

cybercavalier - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 03:50 PM EST (#228716) #

Re lexomatic: according to the numbers, Zobrist can play 2b or SS with Brignac and Rodriguez platooning the other middle infield position. Other than Upton, Anderson, Jennings, Ruggiano, Guyer, Joyce and the recently arrived Sam Fuld, six players will be fighting for 2 outfield positions and the DH if Zobrist is moved to infield. So the Rays are more than adequate in oufielders, which indeed explains the absence of outfielder in their NRI list.

Shaker - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 03:51 PM EST (#228717) #

If you moved Encarnacion to the bench (replacing "??") and signed either Vlad or Manny to DH, one could argue we would now be the best in those 2 slots.
It's not a stretch to say that VW is the best CF of the group and YEscobar is the premier SS. That could be 4 slots out of 13 hitters (ie >1/5).

No doubt a stretch, but JPA could possibly be the best of the Catchers, too. Hill, as mentioned above, could land anywhere from worst to first.

Kelekin, re BoSox rotation question...is the question whether they are better than the Phils and Giants?

Alex Obal - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 04:00 PM EST (#228718) #

If his defense is anywhere near what it was in the second half last year, I'll take Escobar over all the other shortstops.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 04:04 PM EST (#228719) #

Also, just off the top of my head, if any of the six batters is cast into waivers after spring training (at this moment, Joyce, Jennings and Ruggiano seem like the front runners of the pack), the Jays can pick him up given there is a "??" on the Jays bench for an extra outfielder. In my opinion, Sam Fuld would be a nice addition to the Jays bench because of his assets (LHB, played 3 outfield positions, decent K/BB ratio in the minors and some basestealing) and a healthy challenge to Corey Patterson for that "??" bench position. In the end, Patterson is more of a free swinger but a better basestealer; therefore Fuld is more fitting to Alex A.'s philosophy of adding speed and OBP to the lineup.

92-93 - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 04:35 PM EST (#228720) #

I'm not comfortable with the apparent assumption that as of now the Jays OF is Snider-Wells-Davis - provided Vernon is the CF and not Davis, doesn't it make more sense to have Snider in RF? He has the speed and the arm strength, so I don't see a reason to limit him to LF just because you acquired Rajai Davis (who isn't know for his cannon). Then again I was alone on an island about moving Wallace off 3B so what the heck do I know. Maybe it's better for Snider to settle in at LF, but for me that limits Wells to CF/RF through 2014, and it's not inconceivable Snider is the better defensive outfielder sometime soon.

Also, enough with Mike McCoy, PLEASE. I understood his purpose/upside when the Jays were going with Alex Gonzalez, but the situation now is drastically different. Yunel is in place and Hechavarria is around the corner, so I really don't see a need to carry McCoy on the 25 man roster when they are already committed to JMac.

WAR-related random thoughts :

The C spot is pretty up for grabs assuming Jorge's time as a regular C is finished. The favourites are Russell Martin & Matt Wieters. I still have serious doubt about Arencibia but it looks like he has the advantage of having the C job for a non-contender without any competition - unless AA can swing a trade or plans on bringing back Bengie with one of his open roster spots there's a good chance Arencibia will have plenty of time to work through the kinks, if possible. I guess there's also the incredibly slim chance D'Arnaud tears up AA and warrants a call-up. D'Arnaud seems to be the forgotten man among the Jays top prospects with the additions of Lawrie, Hechavarria, and Gose but people should remember he was considered perhaps the Jays top position prospect (Wallace?) after the Halladay deal. He had a respectable year struggling through a back injury and did hit .300/.355/.500 prior to the ASB.

Lind has little chance of competing with Adrian Gonzalez & Mark Teixeira, and it would have to be considered successful if he can finish 3rd ahead of Derrek Lee who has averaged 3.6 over the last 4 years. Still have to see who the Rays settle on at 1B, but Dan Johnson or the new guy Chirinos are unlikely to be a big factor. Johnson tore up the International League the last 2 seasons he spent there, but sandwiched in the middle was an unimpressive year in Japan apparently. Could be a park factor thing.

Even in Hill's monster 2009 season, Cano, Petunia (?!?), and Zobrist were better than him, and Roberts was a shade behind (0.1). The division sets the standard for elite 2B.

Alex Gonzalez actually led the division in WAR in only 85 games, so the Blue Jays SS position was the best in the division last year. Of the returnees Jeter was the best in 2010, but only slightly better than what our own Yunel posted in his time here on a WAR/game basis. Personally I expect Jeter to bounce back and establish his dominance again, but Hardy & Escobar shouldn't be discounted. Special mention to Jose Iglesias whose glove is supposedly so good it might force its way on to the Red Sox roster even with the presence of Scutaro & Lowrie.

Jose Bautista was the division's best RF in 2010, and posted the same WAR as the best 3B, Evan Longoria. If you had to rank them the consensus for 2011 would probably be Longoria > Youkilis > Rodriguez > Bautista > Reynolds.

Left field is beneficial to Snider's value. It would take a significant improvement to catch up to Crawford (and Gardner), who tends to hover around 5.0 WAR. Double Snider's 2010 WAR because he only played 82g and you're at 3.0. I'm as hopeful as the next but am still not convinced this will be the year Snider takes THE LEAP, and would be quite pleased with 140+ games and an .800 OPS.

Vernon Wells was the division's best CF in 2010. He was the division's worst CF in 2009. He'll probably be somewhere in between in 2011. It's hard to definitively rank Wells, Upton, Jones, Ellsbury, and Granderson, and it would come as no surprise if any of them were the division's best.

DH is wide open for Encarnacion to win, and on the pitching side I think Toronto is right there with Tampa in the arms race behind Boston, but that any of the 3 rotations could be the best. And of course by next week the Yankees could have Pettitte back in the fold and another SP like Blanton via trade and all of a sudden you're a little more confident in that rotation.

Mike D - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 04:36 PM EST (#228721) #

I think the AL East could produce a super-team that would just dominate other divisions.

Catcher is the weak link -- I'd probably have Wieters backed up by Molina for defensive/personal catching purposes.

The infield is brutally tough to choose. Maybe Teixeira-Cano-Pedroia-Longoria with Gonzalez, Youkilis and A-Rod to play interchangeably, with one of them playing DH? If Pedroia won't play short, you can add Jeter or Escobar and figure out whom to drop between Cano and Pedroia.

For outfield, maybe I'd take Crawford-Jones-Bautista with Zobrist off the bench. That's two more players with the versatility to be credible infielders as needed.

Rotation...Sabathia, Price, Lester, Buchholz and maybe Morrow for upside's sake and to add a second righty? Romero deserves the #5 slot based on last year's performance, so maybe he's the #6 starter, edging out Hughes, Cecil and the young Rays and O's.

Rivera closes but the rest of the 'pen is surprisingly middling after being ravaged by free agency defections. I'd go with Bard, Uehara, Camp and Logan as the short relief corps, unless you want to luxuriate in the young power arms and stick Morrow or one of the blue-chip Orioles, Rays or Jays back there. Soriano and Balfour would be locks to replace Uehara and Camp if they sign within the division.

Glevin - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 07:10 PM EST (#228723) #

The East should be about as good as it was last year. Red Sox look like the most improved team, not only from their ridiculous talent intake but also they are not likely to have the same injuries. O's are also much improved and now have a pretty decent lineup. This is a rebuilding year in Tampa and they will be worse with no Crawford, Pena, Soriano, or Garza. I also expect a regression from the Yankees who did not upgrade this off-season. I expect the Jays to be around .500 which would be a small drop-off.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 07:30 PM EST (#228724) #

That's about the way I see it, Glevin.

The Red Sox are well out in front. With the Rays probably regressing somewhat, the Yankees getting older (plus missing out on Lee and perhaps Pettitte retiring, and playing sub .500 ball the last 60 games), the Orioles improving all around and no longer being pushovers, and the Jays not without pretty decent talent themselves, I could really see the division bunching up.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Boston win something like 97 games, and the rest of the teams falling between, say, 82 and 88.

Boston 98-64
NY 88-74
Tampa 86-76
Toronto 82-80
Baltimore 81-81

Wouldn't be surprised if something like that happened. Yes, no losing teams.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 07:53 PM EST (#228725) #

Wouldn't be the first time ... happened twice, I think. The 2005 (?) Nats were 81-81 and finished last, and the Angels did it before them some timein the mid-1990s ...

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 08:22 PM EST (#228727) #

Indeed, the 2005 Nationals were 81-81, last in the NL East.

I did some snooping on bbref, and the 1991 California Angels finished last in the AL West at 81-81. That was the year before I started watching baseball, so I never knew about this. It's pretty amazing that an entire 7 team division was at least .500.

uglyone - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 10:12 PM EST (#228728) #

"Is there a single position in that chart where the Jays clearly have the best talent in the division?"

based on those depth charts there, I would take our CF, LF, SS, #3SP, #5SP over any of the others.

uglyone - Wednesday, January 12 2011 @ 10:15 PM EST (#228729) #

and EE should be our 1B this year, IMO. he's got potential to be a plus defensive 1B, imo, and Lind does not.

And EE was as good at the plate last year as a guy like Derrek Lee, for the record. And that wasn't EE at his best.

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 12:25 AM EST (#228730) #

I compare by thinking of a trade - who would I trade for whom to play for me for 2011 (I don't let the years past that - or before that for that matter affect my thought process).

Catcher: I'd trade for Weiters, just a bit below that I'd actually consider taking a flyer on Arencibia - the others - ugh.
1st: I'd trade for Tex or Gonzalez in a heart beat - the others don't belong in the discussion.
2nd: Cano and the Rat Faced Boy in a runaway. All others need not apply.
SS: Don't really want any of them. Jeter if I thought he wasn't in terminal decline - bit I do think that - so Escobar's as good as those other scrubs - but not much better.
3rd: Longoria first followed closely by ARod and Youkillis - even if Bautista hits 40 to 45 homers.
LF: Snider - he's the only one that MIGHT actually be a monster. Crawford has never boiled my water.
CF: Wells - again he's the only one who MIGHT be a monster. Of the others Granderson or Ellsbury.
RF: Markakis - no others need apply.

Starting pitchers - firstly I disagree with the order - for instance - Morrow is our ACE and Drabek is out 4th starter - however I'll use your order to compare...

1st Starter: Price or Sabathia in a WALK - all others are bat boys compared to those two.
2nd Starter: Lester first with Morrow and Hughes reasonably close - but by October I wouldn't be surprised to be saying Hellickson was the best of all these.
3rd Starter: How about: none of the above? Cecil - I'm a homer.
4th Starter: Buchholz followed by a three way tie and then Nova.
5th Starter: Drabek - in a walk.

Closer: Rivera, Paps and who are those other bums anyway?
The Rest: the only guys that scream to me are Bard and Purcey with Camp maybe - just maybe.

However, come October I'm prepared to accept what the players have actually accomplished rater than my perverted thoughts on their worth.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 08:23 AM EST (#228731) #

Uglyone, in fairness it wasn't exactly Derek Lee's best season either.

SK in NJ - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 09:46 AM EST (#228734) #

I really hope Lawrie pans out because keeping Marcum and adding a bat or two (Manny?) would have made things very interesting in 2011 with the Yankees and Rays looking catchable.

At this point, I am still holding out hope that Thames wins an OF spot and platoons with Davis in right or left. Davis looks like a .700 OPS outfielder and even if the team has no intention of winning they should not settle for something like that in the corner OF.

uglyone - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 10:18 AM EST (#228735) #

SS: Don't really want any of them. Jeter if I thought he wasn't in terminal decline - bit I do think that - so Escobar's as good as those other scrubs - but not much better.

27 year old ace defensive SS with a career .364obp - Escobar is an easy choice here.

3rd: Longoria first followed closely by ARod and Youkillis - even if Bautista hits 40 to 45 homers.

not 'even if" - Bautista was a better hitter than any of them last year.

Uglyone, in fairness it wasn't exactly Derek Lee's best season either.

true. but Lee is old and on the decline, and EE was 27 and playing through injuries.

I would change the order of the Red Sox starters, myself. Lester is clearly their ace, and I'd say Lackey is their #2. I'd line them up like this:

Romero - Lester
Morrow - Lackey
Cecil - Buchholz
Drabek - Beckett
Rzepczynski - Matsuzaka

bpoz - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 10:21 AM EST (#228736) #

AA kept talking about depth.

IMO you will definitely have injuries. I am starting to believe that some individual over performance and under performance is a factor that seems to happen regularly each year for just about every team, but I am not sure about that.

IMO the power offenses (Hr) are NYY, Tor & Balt. I think TB & Bos will have offenses that are also good but in a different way. IMO NYY & Bos will have the best offenses...just because. Sorry.

If I was to pick 1 injured or poor performance Position player, SP or/and key reliever from each team, I believe it will hurt some teams more than others.

TB Price, Longoria.
Tor JPA, Hill or Y Escobar.
Bos A Gonzales, D Ortiz.
NYY M Rivera, CC.
Balt A Top SP.

That's gotta hurt!!

Gwyn - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 10:48 AM EST (#228739) #

I didn't really put the starters in order on the chart - except for the Yankees where the ranking's are obvious. I just put them down in the order they popped into my head. You could have a long debate ranking the rotations of the other four teams.

Glevin - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 01:34 PM EST (#228741) #

" based on those depth charts there, I would take our CF, LF, SS, #3SP, #5SP over any of the others."

I'd actually take Wells last among those CFers. He is the oldest, worst defensively, and I don't see any reason to trust him based on his last 4 years. I'd probably go with Granderson. As for SS? I'd probably take Jeter for one year but wouldn't argue against Escobar as it's a weak position. LF? Crawford in a cakewalk. Great hitter, incredible defense, and excellent speed. Snider has excellent potential but is not close to the player Crawford is at this stage. The starters aren't really in their proper order as noted above so it is difficult to compare. I always find this way of comparing a little strange though. You could make an argument that the Red Sox don't have the best player anywhere except LF and #4 starter but they are still easily the most talented team in the division(and baseball). I'd rather have the #5 2Bman than the #1 SS and the #5 3Bman might be better than the #1 catcher. In order to judge teams, you simply have to look at them as a whole and it's clear that the Red Sox are the cream of the crop right now.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 01:51 PM EST (#228742) #

Hank Steinbrenner may still come up with several million reasons to disagree with you, Glevin. ;-P

Ducey - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 03:34 PM EST (#228744) #

Eric Chavez apparently worked out for the Jays in AZ and seemed healthy.

No word on whether he was injured taking off his uniform

MatO - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 04:20 PM EST (#228745) #

Maybe Chavez can pull a "Molitor", avoid injury and have a late career renaissance.

cybercavalier - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 04:34 PM EST (#228746) #

Re Ducey and MatO: it seems the management trying to get a bargain and pull a Greg Zaun out of Chavez. Zaun provides the Jays 5 seasons of performance and who knows what would happen to Chavez.

Mike Green - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 04:36 PM EST (#228747) #

I'd be satisfied with a Gaetti-like rise from the ashes.

cybercavalier - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 04:38 PM EST (#228748) #

Well, maybe a "Molitor" performance and "Zaun" length of service time.

cybercavalier - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 05:04 PM EST (#228750) #

Re M. Green: on dreaming of resurrection: maybe a David Smith in AAA: at least he had been discussed on this site.

ZekeBella - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 05:18 PM EST (#228751) #

All things being equal, why would anyone with back problems like Chavez want to play at Rogers Centre, presuming he has other alternatives?

lexomatic - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 06:21 PM EST (#228753) #

I would stay away from Chavez... after the amount of time he's been off, I think there's no way he can be even replacement. And I believe he's had a number of fusion type surgeries. I think last time he tried ot come back, people were saying if he got hurt again he'd be risking his ability to walk.
I'm reading that the Jays are interested in Rauch now which seems really weird. Sure they could trade him come July, but if you're not going for it this season, why block prospects?

cybercavalier - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 06:34 PM EST (#228755) #

Re lexomatic: I think the management is not blocking prospects but to use different means to supplement the prospect development. And don't worry, Chavez won't challenge the prospects now: there is a 3B hole to fill at AAA: the Jays invest correspondingly to Chavez' perceived market value and do likewise in Patterson, Chad Cordero, Dotel, Ryan Budde et al.

cybercavalier - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 06:37 PM EST (#228756) #

By the same token, why did the Mets pick up Brad Emaus in Rule 5, even if he only played more or less a half season in AAA?

Powder Blues - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 06:55 PM EST (#228757) #

a) 3rd base is dirt, not concrete. Turf is worse for OFs.
b) the fake grass, presumably, is softer than the old fake golf putting green carpeting

TamRa - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 09:56 PM EST (#228758) #

when i do comparisons like this, i try to anticipate what order the team will use, rather than rank them from best to worst. For instance, the Yanks will probably run out AJ second andHughes third, regardless. there's a reasonable chance Beckett still starts opening day for the Red sox even though ester is clearly better.

Listch, if he wins (or confirms his possesion of) the open spot would almost certaily go 4th over Drabek even though the team is clearly higher on the kid.

When in doubt about a teams intentions, i tend to compare compareable guys.

For instance - both Romero and CC are ace-level lefties, both Morrow and AJ are hard throwing strikeout guys with occasional control issues, both Cecil and Hughes are young pitchers just on the cusp of really making a name for themselves

You can similarly compare Cecil to Davis in TB, or Drabek to Hellickson.

That might not always line up "my best vs. your best" but it makes for easier comparisons.

greenfrog - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 10:04 PM EST (#228759) #

Interesting move by the Yankees, signing Soriano. It seems like a reasonable acquisition for a team that is making another run at the postseason. Might as well bolster the bullpen with premium talent, now that the starting pitching market has thinned out. Besides, the Yankees will find another good starter at some point this year. And while they're giving up a first-round pick, it isn't a particularly high one (31st overall).

As for the Rays, they've lost a lot of talent this off-season, but they're certainly keeping the talent pipeline flowing. They're also going to have quite a few high draft picks this year. I suspect the AL East is going to stay very competitive for the foreseeable future...

Mick Doherty - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 10:10 PM EST (#228760) #

Yeah -- and Mo Rivera rings up 45 saves, passes Hoffman for the all-time lead, retires to an inevitable first-ballot waltz into the Hall, and Soriano is your closer.

greenfrog - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 10:37 PM EST (#228761) #

Well, Mo just signed a two-year deal, so he's probably not ready to hang up the cleats just yet. Besides, his level of physical fitness is apparently ridiculous. But the Yankees might be wise to rest him a bit more this year, now that they've got a very capable sub for the 9th inning.

greenfrog - Thursday, January 13 2011 @ 10:58 PM EST (#228762) #

The nice thing about the deal for the Jays is that the Angels didn't sign Crawford, Beltre, or Soriano - which apparently means AA & co. should be getting a second-round pick (in addition to a supp pick) for Downs, instead of a third-round pick.

andrewkw - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 12:42 AM EST (#228764) #

This is in regards to the NL west not the AL east, but I have to ask. Why did The Dodgers just release Pat Borders? Why was he on their restricted list for almost 5 years? See http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10777 for it listed under this weeks transactions.

Chuck - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 06:31 AM EST (#228765) #

Yeah -- and Mo Rivera rings up 45 saves, passes Hoffman for the all-time lead, retires to an inevitable first-ballot waltz into the Hall, and Soriano is your closer.

That would seem to be the most plausible scenario, though time will tell if Soriano is still healthy come age 33 (let alone stays healthy during Rivera's presumed final two seasons).

Another scenario has Soriano opting out after year one in New York to pursue the available closer's job up in Boston. Those Boras opt-out clauses tend to get exercised.

Mike Green - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 10:22 AM EST (#228768) #

With the signing of Soriano, Chamberlain undoubtedly will be moving to the rotation where he has a career 4.27 FIP. 150 innings of Chamberlain instead of Sergio Mitre makes a big difference.

The Yankees still look to be a 92 win team to me.

Thomas - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 10:51 AM EST (#228771) #

With the signing of Soriano, Chamberlain undoubtedly will be moving to the rotation where he has a career 4.27 FIP.

It may make sense on many levels, but I'll believe it when I see it. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees view Joba and Robertson and the lefties as their 6th/7th inning guys, with the idea being of trying to get 5 serviceable innings out of the last couple of starters and then trying to shut the game down with the bullpen.

Mike Green - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 11:14 AM EST (#228772) #

You might be right, Thomas, but that method sounds like a recipe for an arm blow-out or two, given the personnel aside from Sabathia. Maybe Betances will be ready by July.

Notwithstanding all that, I still say the Yankees win at least 92 in 2011.

92-93 - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 12:47 PM EST (#228774) #

Yanks would be silly to not try Joba as a starter again now that they have Rivera through 2012 and Soriano through 2013 - at worst they blow out the arm of their 7th inning man who was scheduled to become a FA at the same time as their heir apparent.

I was happy to read in Morgan Campbell's Star article today that Henderson Alvarez has thrown 42.1ip (39h 16bb 27k 1hr 2.13era with a ton of GBs) in the Venezuelan Winter League already. He had dipped from 124ip in 2009 to 112ip in 2010, so this work helped build up the arm strength. My question is, do these winter innings count? Or am I missing the fact that Alvarez threw a similar amount of winter innings in 2009?

Dave Till - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 01:57 PM EST (#228775) #

Looking at the Jays' roster, I realize that I have no idea how they will do next year. They could be very good or very bad. It's impossible to tell.

There are two things AA could do to build up the Jays' roster, it seems to me. The first is to stock up on right handed power hitters. Yes, I know that the new manager wants to emphasize Doing The Little Things, but right-handed power hitters tend to do well here, which means that they can be picked up on the cheap and flogged for talent. Consider last year: Alex Gonzalez The Second and John Buck were freely available talent, and the Jays got a starting shortstop in his prime and Type A draft pick compensation for them. Surely, there are one or two similar players out there who could provide more of the same?

The second is to exploit the Las Vegas Effect. The Jays' AAA home park is such an extreme hitters' park that a player has to bat about .350 there to be any good. The Jays could do worse than sign some surplus players or prospects, send them down to Sin City for some stat fattening, then hawk them for useful parts. (Arguably, they did this last year with the Wallace for Gose trade.)

Thomas - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 02:49 PM EST (#228776) #

Since posting my comment, I did read a story on the signing where a "source" from the Yankees says Joba will remain in the pen, but I don't think that is particularly indicative of one plan or the other.

On another note, does anyone have a list of the prospects attending the ongoing minicamp at the Rogers Centre? I know Thames, Mastroianni and d'Arnaud are there, but I think there's about 10 players who are attending and I haven't read the other names.

cybercavalier - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 02:58 PM EST (#228777) #

Re Dave:

Frankly, I agree with you mostly. In how the Jays will do in 2011. Some surprises (Bautista) may regress to a normal level of play (for instance 20HR in stead of 50); some abnormalities (Lind and Hill) may go back to normal. All these player can certainly perform in the another way. Player aging shall continue (Johnny Mac, Molina). EE, Escobar, Arencibia, Villaneuva are all wild cards: could be better or worse. As for Alex Gonzalez II and Buck, I think AA found the likes in Chad Cordero and Villaneuva but there shall be more of them in FA. Is Patterson also? Maybe.

For Vegas, Lubanski and Dopirak left. Among the free agent batter signees, so far only Ryan Budde is most likely to stay in Vegas. For nostalgia, I have been thinking Gabe Gross and David Smith. Other than their age (30) permitting a probable comeback, they are Jays' farm products during JPR era. If they did return to be average players, signing them demonstrates the following:

1) The Jays' farm system is now good enough to refit AAAA or ML veterans, adding the argument for attracting more veterans in future transactions.
2) AA worked under JPR. Refitting these players gives gratitude to the predecessing and the current GM as these players underperformed due to non farm system (and hence non Jays) reasons, and demonstrates the ability of the current management to right the ship for ML veterans, resembling the Buck resurrection in T.O..
3) Smith hit .302/.422/.509 with 64 PA in Syracuse. So the Sin [city] effect to batting stats can even drive his stats better.
4) Last but not least, signing Smith delights some previous posters on this site.

Mike Green - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 04:50 PM EST (#228780) #

Francis at $2 million for one year and a reasonable 2nd year option? With the departure of Marcum and the questionable readiness of Litsch, Drabek and Stewart, it would haven't been a bad idea, patriotic pride aside.

pooks137 - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 05:58 PM EST (#228781) #

Am I missing something here? David Smith has been mentioned a few times over the last few days. As far as I can tell, he hasn't played affiliated baseball since 2008 and I had assumed he retired. Why has his name risen from the ashes so suddenly?

cybercavalier - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 06:39 PM EST (#228782) #

re pooks137: for my part, I was joking with MatO and Mike Green on Chavez's workout with the Jays in AZ and take David Smith as an example. During spring training 2009, when Smith left the Jays, some poster(s) here prefer to keep him around.

re Mike Green: Griffin discussed a bit on Jeff Francis in a Q&A on his blog and MLB Rumors had an entry for Francis.

uglyone - Friday, January 14 2011 @ 10:44 PM EST (#228784) #

Just wanted to break down our lineup with some simple numbers. Career numbers and "best of last 2yrs" and "worst of last 2yrs". I use wOBA for the hitters, and xFIP for the pitchers (starters only as starters, only relief numbers for the relievers).

Player: Career (Best of 2yrs / Worst of 2yrs)

* 3B J.Bautista (30): .346wOBA (.422/.322)
* CF V.Wells (32): .346wOBA (.362/.314)
* 1B E.Encarnacion (28): .344wOBA (.339/.322)
* DH A.Lind (27): .341wOBA (.394/.309)
* SS Y.Escobar (28): .338wOBA (.357/.301)
* LF T.Snider (23): .331wOBA (.331/.327)
* 2B A.Hill (29): .327wOBA (.357/.291)
* RF R.Davis (30): .326wOBA (.354/.321)
* C J.Arencibia (25): .232wOBA (.232/.232)

* SP K.Drabek (23): 3.59xFIP (3.59/3.59)
* SP R.Romero (26): 3.91xFIP (3.75/4.09)
* SP M.Rzepczynski (25): 4.03xFIP (3.70/4.36)
* SP B.Morrow (26): 4.07xFIP (3.63/4.72)
* SP B.Cecil (24): 4.44xFIP (4.32/4.60)

* RP O.Dotel (37): 3.66xFIP (4.13/4.27)
* RP C.Villanueva (27): 3.79xFIP (3.39/3.77)
* RP S.Camp (35): 3.95xFIP (4.01/4.08)
* RP J.Frasor (33): 4.01xFIP (3.65/3.85)
* RP C.Janssen (29): 4.05xFIP (3.52/3.63)
* RP J.Carlson (30): 4.32xFIP (4.49/4.52)
* RP D.Purcey (29): 4.57xFIP (4.57/4.57)

Now granted there's a lot of hit or miss type talent there (and granted the small sample sizes for the rooks like Drabek and JPA are fairly useless), but that's a roster there that could win a fair bit if more players have good season than bad.

92-93 - Saturday, January 15 2011 @ 01:09 PM EST (#228785) #

That roster could look even better considering they can add Damon, Manny, Fuentes, and Rauch and still not have an 85m on-field payroll.

SJE - Saturday, January 15 2011 @ 01:30 PM EST (#228786) #

I agree adding Damon , Manny, etc would help in increasing the 85 win total. The only problem is the goal is to win World Series. Signing guys on the decline may boost short term wins, but it will also block guys and will give the illusion of getting closer to a championship club. Its been said before the wins this may be less,but the Jays organization will be getting closer to a championship. Look at what the hockey team has for decades and do the opposite.

Gerry - Saturday, January 15 2011 @ 04:31 PM EST (#228787) #

The National Post has a story on Jose Bautista and his arbitration case. One expert thinks Jose will get $7.5m.

The Canmore, Alta., resident � who also has written two books with Survivorman Les Stroud � said the three-person arbitration panels of non-baseball experts have not embraced the more esoteric Sabrmetrics calculations such as Value Over Replacement Player and Win Shares.

The much simpler numbers tend to resonate the most, which bodes well for Bautista.

�It�s sex appeal, in terms of how sexy statistics can get,� Vlessides said. �Home runs are the sexiest statistic that you can put on the table and this guy had 54 of them.�

�It�s funny, there�s a lot of mystique around the salary arbitration process because there�s not a lot of people involved in it,� he said. �But it�s still very visceral and simplistic and clubs tend to lose cases where players have had good seasons and the Blue Jays know that.�

�One thing we look for in arbitration is length and consistency,� Vlessides said. �Bautista, frankly, just doesn�t have that. A guy like Cantu might have a lot of the same career statistics like Bautista, but once you factor in Bautista�s monster year, it�s going to push him well north of a guy like Cantu.

�He�ll be getting at least US$7-million this year and then where it goes from there depends on the negotiations between the two parties,� he added. �My guess is Bautista is worth about US$7.5-million.�

Gerry - Saturday, January 15 2011 @ 04:33 PM EST (#228788) #

On Friday the Star had a feature on Darin Mastroianni.

LaCava says Mastroianni�s winter play proved he could contribute to a club being retrofitted for speed.

�He made a lot of improvement in a short period and we think he�s going to be a legit (major league) centerfielder,� LaCava says. �Darin capped off a great (Eastern League) season by going there. A lot of times it�s not that easy for players that have had a successful season to pick up and go and do more, (but) he did.�

ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, January 15 2011 @ 09:33 PM EST (#228789) #

they can add Damon, Manny, Fuentes, and Rauch

I'm doubtful that Damon, Ramirez or Rauch would have much interest coming to Toronto without a large premium, which given that the team is fighting for fourth place doesn't seem worth it to me. Ramirez is reported by Griffin to be on the verge of signing with the LAA.

Jdog - Saturday, January 15 2011 @ 11:13 PM EST (#228790) #

Now your just being a true pessimist. Ramirez is already on record this offseason as being interested in coming to Toronto. And I'm sure the rest of them would come as well if its their best offer.

Petey Baseball - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 01:27 AM EST (#228791) #

I have no basis for this prediction, but I have a good feeling about Jesse Listch for 2011.

bpoz - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 10:52 AM EST (#228792) #

Henderson Alvarez last pitched on Dec 10th, also he sometimes had 7-9 days off between starts. I don't know if that had a bad effect on him but his numbers look pretty good to me.

sam - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 07:07 PM EST (#228793) #

There's a brief interview up on the Blue Jays website with Anthony Gose. There's really not much there to comment on but you can really tell with this guy that he wants to play baseball and have fun at it. I really do hope he pans out because he looks to be a guy who gives it 110% every time he's out there.

Flex - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 07:38 PM EST (#228794) #

Thanks for the heads-up on the interview. Gose seems like a good kid. I hope it works out for him.

sam - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 09:07 PM EST (#228795) #

If you scroll through the interviews you can also watch Kyle Drabek's interview from the same event last year. Intangibles are incredibly important in baseball and sometimes get lost in a lot of the discussion about players and statistics. From playing competitive baseball and having been coached by a professional scout and heard what they say about players they are evaluating, it's clear that intangibles factor in to their assessments much more than the average fan probably assumes. I remember a specific quote I heard about Aaron Hill and a scout who referenced a story he heard of him when he was playing for Team USA. I think the story goes along the lines of the team was down a run or two, Hill was frustrated that they were losing and reconciled that he, himself would turn the game around. He went up and hit a homerun to win the game. Anyways, my point is, it's these types of things that scouts will say, "OK this guy is going to play in the Major Leagues, and this guy is going to be a competitor."

Well the interviews I think, even though they are short, and really don't say much, point a bit to something I think the Blue Jays are targeting and rightfully so. Both these guys want to play and have fun at it. Drabek is a competitor, and Gose wants to make highlight plays on every single play. They smile when they talk about their abilities and playing baseball. I don't know if it's the fact I've watched dozens of interviews of current Blue Jays, who admittedly have gone through the rigors of full seasons of MLB baseball, but I think the players the Jays have had over the last decade have really lacked maybe with the exception of Doc that competitive demeanor.

Sorry for this largely unsubstantiated and very debatable tangent, but it's just something I think the Jays are now starting to turn the corner on. It's fun watching Ricky Romero pitch, because for one he's talented, but also because he really competes out there. Stuff like that sometimes gets lost in statistical debates over whose better is extremely important. One last example, Josh Beckett has had some dreadful years in recent memory, but in my mind he still is someone I'd love to have pitching in the playoffs.

sam - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 09:10 PM EST (#228796) #

And just to weigh in on the debates of roster comparisons. I think he's the best no. 1 in the AL East. With that being said, if he doesn't turn in a sub 3.5 ERA this year than that changes.

Original Ryan - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 09:54 PM EST (#228797) #

Fuentes is reportedly off to Oakland. I had read recently that the Jays were interested in Jon Rauch, so we'll see what happens. At this point I'd prefer to give the remaining spot(s) to the guys already in the system to see what they can do, rather than sign another veteran to a major league contract.

cybercavalier - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 10:09 PM EST (#228798) #

Re sam: Out of curiosity, if intangibles are supposed to be essential of a player's performance, maybe farm systems emphasize them in signing or retaining minor league free agent, farmhands and borderline big leaguers. However, it is not the case. A Jays' example would be the David Smith mentioned in this entry that began with photos of Overbay. During spring training 2009, some posters here prefer to keep Smith in AAA due to his acceptable performance on stats sheets and his hardworking ethics. Two years have passed, and he still remain unassociated with affiliation baseball according to his profile page on fangraphs, BbRef and BbCube. On the other end of the discussion, another hardworking babe Jays Mastroianni is on his way to be a legit major league center fielder (according to the new link submitted here a few post ago)

In the end, IMO intangibles will increase the likelihood of being successful in the ML.

Alex Obal - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 10:30 PM EST (#228799) #

Another rite of winter: the new Jays have jersey numbers.

The newcomers:
40 Joel Carreno
35 Octavio Dotel
36 Alan Farina
47 Luis Perez
37 Jo-Jo Reyes
33 Carlos Villanueva
31 Brian Jeroloman
3 Adeiny Hechavarria
11 Rajai Davis
1 Darin Mastroianni
20 Moises Sierra

Kyle Drabek is still 4.

cybercavalier - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 10:46 PM EST (#228800) #

At this point I'd prefer to give the remaining spot(s) to the guys already in the system to see what they can do, rather than sign another veteran to a major league contract.

IM(H)O, I am not too much concerned with pitching and catching depth as the Jays are pretty good at. Remember the Winston Abreu guy? IMO, I am more concerned with batters. Other than JPA, Hill and Lind are the major farm products. McCoy and Hoffpauir are polished veterans when they came to the Jays; so they don't count. Last season, the 51s got Lubanski, Dopirak and Emaus. Hopefully we have some surprise to step in from AAA besides the expected progression of Thames and other prospects.

By the way, is there any news on the New Zealander Scott Campbell? He seems to fade into the unknown after the injury in April and May 2009 although he is still list in the 51s roster.

Original Ryan - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 11:52 PM EST (#228801) #

The non-roster invitees also have numbers. Brett Lawrie will wear #13, and Anthony Gose gets Cito's old #43. Deck McGuire's #72 appears to be the highest number currently assigned.

Non-uniformed instructor Luis Rivera has been assigned Kevin Gregg's #63. There's a very good chance we won't have to see that number at all in 2011.

Original Ryan - Sunday, January 16 2011 @ 11:59 PM EST (#228802) #

Sorry for the follow-up to my own post, but I noticed that Joe Sheehan is listed on the Blue Jays' website as being a Baseball Information Analyst for the club. I assume that's the same Joe Sheehan formerly of Baseball Prospectus. When did that happen?

Spifficus - Monday, January 17 2011 @ 12:28 AM EST (#228803) #

I think it's Joe P. Sheehan, who did PitchFX articles at baseballanalysts.com.

Original Ryan - Monday, January 17 2011 @ 12:39 AM EST (#228804) #

It does appear to be Joe P. Sheehan, based on his Linkedin profile. I guess he started with the Jays in November after a stint with the Pirates. I hadn't realized that there were two guys named Joe Sheehan doing baseball statistics work.

Thomas - Monday, January 17 2011 @ 09:55 AM EST (#228805) #

Does anyone know how long CJ Ebarb has been scouting for the Jays? It looks like the former Toronto farmhand stopped playing affiliated ball after the 2009 season, but I don't recall his name on the team's list of scouts in 2010. Of course, I could easily have missed it.

Mike Green - Monday, January 17 2011 @ 10:20 AM EST (#228806) #

When we find that out, we could also ask why Roger Craig Ebarb chose the name C.J. Ebarb. He was born in Louisiana, so the Bubba thing (A.J., B.J., C.J.) described by B.J. Ryan might be it. When Dr. John starts going by M.J. Rebennack, I'll know that it really is true.

I must admit that I am puzzled by the perceived need for additional free-agent relief pitching. I guess that it means that pitchers like Zach Stewart will begin the season in the minors.

cybercavalier - Monday, January 17 2011 @ 12:44 PM EST (#228807) #

I must admit that I am puzzled by the perceived need for additional free-agent relief pitching.

IMO, I am more concerned with additional free-agent batting. Other than Thames et al. in AA, not many Jays grown farm product graduated from AAA, except JPA and possibly Jeroloman (guess what, another Jays' B. J. )

92-93 - Monday, January 17 2011 @ 12:54 PM EST (#228808) #

If relievers can be moved for prospects at the deadline (Putz, Sherrill, Dotel, etc...) and yield at least a supplementary pick all for at most the price of a 1 WAR player, they are undervalued assets. For a team like Toronto with the ability to spend $, a currently pathetic payroll, and bullpen roles currently filled by guys like Casey Janssen & Jesse Carlson - why SHOULDN'T they be signing these FA RPs? At least for As fans Billy Beane has caught on.

ComeByDeanChance, when Frasor accepted arbitration you called me out. I'm curious if, after Balfour's signing, you still hold the opinion that I was wrong and Frasor's agent made a good decision in having his client accept arb? Because I maintain my belief that he cost him millions of guaranteed $.

Mike Green - Monday, January 17 2011 @ 01:50 PM EST (#228809) #

I understand the rationale for signing Dotel, although it isn't what I would do. The club was talking about signing Fuentes and/or Rauch, in addition. And they've got Frasor. It is a lot of money to spend and not everyone is going to end up in a high leverage role. Further, it is unclear whether the compensation regime will be there under the next CBA.

Original Ryan - Monday, January 17 2011 @ 03:39 PM EST (#228813) #

The Jays have apparently signed Rauch to a one-year deal worth $3.5 million, plus an option for a second year. My preference would have been to fill out the bullpen with in-house candidates, but this isn't a terrible signing. Rauch is essentially a taller version of Jason Frasor.

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