Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Greinke finally dealt ... to Brewers??

The Milwaukee Brewers have apparently aced out the Rangers, Yankeees, Angels and others in completing a deal in to acquire former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke from the Royals.

The agent for Brewers minor league pitcher Jake Odorizzi, who is part of the Royals package in return, confirmed the deal on Sunday.

The Royals will receive Odorizzi, shortstop Alcides Escober, outfielder Lorenzo Cain and another player from the Brewers. reportedly minor league pitcher Jeremy Jeffress. A source has told ESPN.com's Keith Law, friend of Batter's Box, that Jeffress has been told he is included in the trade.

The Brewers also are expected to receive shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt from the Royals.

Sounds like a high, high price for MIL to pay for what may well be a rental, but the deal also might make the Brew Crew the NL Central favorites for 2011 ...

Posted by Mick Doherty on Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 03:11 PM EST.

Greinke finally dealt ... to Brewers?? | 113 comments | Create New Account

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TamRa - Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 04:45 PM EST (#227910) #

not a price I'd have wanted to beat, but at the same time I'm not sure how impressed i am from the Royals' point of view. I never heard of Cain as a prospect until this year, and Escobar, while certainly a great defender, might never be an above average hitter.

Maybe Grienke's reported use of his no-trade forced them to go ahead and take the first reasonably good offer from a team he would approve?

On the other hand - I'm impressed with the Brewers getting off the fence and going for it before Fielder leaves.

As for the Royals, it seems to me that this confirms they are writing off the next couple of years while they wait on all those prospects to develop which should mean that quality players they have now that won't still be there in, say, 2014, should be more available.

Which means, if I'm Alex, I'm calling about Soria or at least seeing if i can get Gordon on the cheap.

sam - Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 06:00 PM EST (#227912) #

To match this haul, we presumably would have had to give up Hechevarria, Drabek, Snider, Alvarez?

dan gordon - Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 06:54 PM EST (#227913) #

Big relief that the Jays didn't trade Snider/Drabek for Greinke. It amazes me how highly regarded Greinke is after having one great year in 2009. Three of his last 4 years were not even close to that level. Still he's a good pitcher and with Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf they now have the pitching to go with Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, McGehee. There are some very good starting rotations in the NL - could be some very good playoff battles next year.

I see the Jays signed themselves a catcher. Well, sort of.

92-93 - Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 08:02 PM EST (#227915) #

To match this haul, we presumably would have had to give up Hechevarria, Drabek, Snider, Alvarez?

Not even close. Hechavarria & Escobar are almost a wash, but there's nobody coming from MIL to match up with either Snider or Drabek, let alone both of them. Odorizzi wasn't much better in the Midwest than Alvarez was despite being a year older, Jeffress is a reliever with huge makeup issues, and Lorenzo Cain has never been anything to write home about. It's hard to compare the package to a Blue Jays one because there's a lack of actual comparisons, but in terms of value I'd say Hechavarria, Alvarez, Gose, and Farina, or something along those lines (you can replace Hech with Yunel, Alvarez with Stewart, Gose with Marisnick, etc...). People need to get this Drabek & Snider things out of their head - it's amazing how Bob Elliot speculating on what it would take to get Greinke and saying he'd do it has turned into an actual trade rumour.

I can't understand why KC would make this deal today and am with TamRa in hoping AA has already reached out to see what it would take to get Soria - anybody but Snider, Drabek, and Lawrie and the Blue Jays should be interested.

greenfrog - Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 09:38 PM EST (#227916) #

All of these debates aside, it is pretty amazing to finally have some hope again as a Jays fan. Between Drabek, D'Arnaud, Gose, Lawrie, Morrow, Escobar, the 2010 draft, the 2011 draft picks resulting from Gregg/Buck/Olivo/Downs, the new manager, coaches, scouts, and solid front office...it's easy to forget just how dark things were looking a couple of years ago. The organization does seem headed in the right direction - this is a small miracle in itself.

Forkball - Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 10:20 PM EST (#227917) #

Sounds like a high, high price for MIL to pay

That seems to be a minority view. This feels like what the Twins got for Santana. The most desirable player played in the Midwest League this year.

I think the Jays will end up getting a better return for Marcum from just Lawrie than KC got with the 4 players for Grienke.

Milwaukee is clearly going all in this year. Marcum and Grienke is quite an upgrade, and with more innings will make their bullpen better as well. But they also have a lot of ground to make up.

TamRa - Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 10:26 PM EST (#227918) #

the trick is, at this point, matching up to the collection of players that KC has coming.

If Moustakas looks like a mid-season call up...
and Hosmer probably late in the year or 2012..
and Myers in 2013...

And Escobar has 5 more years before FA...

Not sure how fast Colon will come but they have a guy at AA named Gavotella to fill 2B until he does...

If everyone worked out, the whole infield and catcher situation has the starters for the window of opportunity, which seems to be '13-'15

Montgomery looks to be at least a year away...say mid-2012...
Lamb's maybe half a season behind...
and Crow the same, at best, maybe a half season behind him...
Duffy seems a year away at least, even though he was moving fast...
and Dwyer 1.5-2 years

So that's five prospects which all seem to be on track for a 2012-2017 window. All roughly the same amount of experience at any given time.

Seems to me the outfield is where they stand in need. Cain is 25 but he's hardly a future all star. Beyond that, the outfielders who project to be influential in that window of opprtunity don't seem obvious.

So, it seems to me that if you are going to take a run at Soria, you have to start with a promising outfielder (not names Snider) and SP that is either ahead of (Stewart) or behind (Alvarez, McGuire?) the curve that the rest of those guys are on.

Possibly a catcher who's closer than Myers.

Stewart, Thames, and Jeroloman? And maybe an upside guy from low in the minors like Pierre or Sierra?

Gordon I think should be much cheaper, given the fact he's not going to be an important part of the Window.

92-93 - Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 11:22 PM EST (#227919) #

That seems awfully light to me. It can be argued that Soria has more trade value than Greinke, considering the 2 extra years of control and the options. Soria makes 4m in 2011 and then there's options of 6m, 8m, and 8.75m over the next 3 seasons, each with a minimal 750k buyout. The total of those 4 seasons is 26.75m, which is less than Greinke stands to make over the next 2 seasons. There is speculation he could be stretched out to start considering his advanced repertoire. If the packages needed for Soria start at Zach Stewart the Jays should be all over him.

christaylor - Sunday, December 19 2010 @ 11:59 PM EST (#227921) #

"Big relief that the Jays didn't trade Snider/Drabek for Greinke. It amazes me how highly regarded Greinke is after having one great year in 2009."

It amazes me that people don't realize how wrong this view is despite evidence to the contrary.

Greinke's an ace and he'll absolutely tear through the NL central.

sam - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 02:37 AM EST (#227922) #

Greenfrog I second that!

TamRa - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 03:29 AM EST (#227923) #

Noted in passing...

Sickels has his rankings for the Rays system out - the system that people are so VERY impressed by in most commentary.

Here's how many he has at each grade:

A = 2
B+ = 2
B = 4
B- = 6
C+ = 6

Now here's the Jays -assuming the unverified proposition that lawrie earns an A-

A- = 2
B+ = 2
B = 4
B- = 7
C+ = 9

Even if Lawre is a B+ that still puts us right on their heels, and with more players he felt merited mentioning on the list.

For reference, the Yankees:

A = 1
B+ = 2
B = 2
B- = 7
C+ = 9

Baltimore:

A- = 2
B- = 2
C+ = 12
C = 4

Boston hasn't been done yet.

Some are calling the royal's system one of the best collections ever, here's KC:

A = 3
A- = 1
B+ = 3
B = 4
B- = 2
C+ = 16

And that's including the guys from the Brewers.

So we have 15 guys B- or better and they have 13, but they have 7 B+ or better and we have 4, and they have 29 ranked players to our 24.

I'm too lazy to go through all his lists, and he hasn't finished yet of course, but it seems we're looking like a top tier club at this point.

Ryan C - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 03:58 AM EST (#227924) #

I don't see it mentioned anywhere, although Dan alluded to it above, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN the Jays have signed Catcher Ryan Budde to a minor league contract. http://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/16551714953891840#

Magpie - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 04:13 AM EST (#227925) #

Nervous Boy

Making fun of someone's illness is pretty creepy.

rpriske - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 08:50 AM EST (#227926) #

ThAT was the best KC could get? Wow.

Good job AA for getting more talent for Marcum than KC got for Grienke.

SK in NJ - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 09:31 AM EST (#227927) #

I like the fact that AA looks at quality over quantity. Lawrie is a better prospect than anyone the Royals just acquired, and AA was working with an inferior trade chip. So while trading an established starter for a prospect 1-for-1 seems less desirable than acquiring 3 prospects, in this particular case it may prove to be better.

Dave Till - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 09:50 AM EST (#227929) #

As a Jays fan, I am grateful that neither Lee nor Greinke wound up with either the Yankees or the Red Sox. There seems to be an unspoken assumption these days that talent will tend to gravitate to New York or Boston, like water flowing downhill.

I wonder whether Greinke had a short list of teams he was willing to be dealt to? Perhaps the Royals couldn't get a better deal because of that. Perhaps it was like the Roger Clemens and Shawn Green situations, where the Jays really only had one team to deal with. (I doubt that Greinke would have insisted on Milwaukee, but he might have insisted on not going to New York, for example.)

Looking at Greinke's numbers, I see red flags all over his record. Last year, his hits per 9 went up, his walks per 9 went up, and his strikeouts per 9 went down. He might be this close to a major arm injury. Or he might just have had an off year. Who knows? But I would not have traded Snider for him - we don't know what Snider's ceiling is yet. He may go totally bananas on the league next year.

As for the Jays: they seem to be taking a Puritan approach to team development - suffer now in order to achieve one's reward in the future. If they can handle the short-term hit to attendance and TV ratings, it might just work. And maybe Snider and Lawrie will take leaps forward in 2011. That's why they play the games, after all!

Mick Doherty - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 10:10 AM EST (#227930) #

This morning, friend of Batter's Box Jamey Newberg speculates that the Royals were demanding more from AL teams, preferring to move ZG out of the junio circuit, but shoudl still be pretty happy with what they got ... and he is disappointed that Greinke is not a Ranger, but not at the reported asking price, anyway.

greenfrog - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 10:24 AM EST (#227931) #

Well, with the acquisitions of Crawford, Gonzalez, Wheeler and Jenks, I'd say the talent is flowing pretty freely Boston's way. Not only that, but their draft position actually *improved* despite all of these moves, because they get Detroit's first-round pick next year (as compensation for the loss of V-Mart).

electric carrot - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 10:47 AM EST (#227932) #

But I would not have traded Snider for him

Snider vs. Greinke?

I would be very surprised if Snider had a better career than Greinke. I want Snider to be great but I would say in 10 years who the better player is will be embarrassingly obvious -- I'll put my money on the CYA winner. Dave, you want put down 50 cuttlefish and we'll check back in 2020?

John Northey - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 11:00 AM EST (#227933) #

Greinke might have the better overall career vs Snider, but from this point forward it might be harder to predict and that is what matters most.

ayjackson - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 11:06 AM EST (#227934) #

Jamey Newberg speculates that the Royals were demanding more from AL teams

It may seem counter intuitive, but they should have traded him within their division, not just league. KC's window of contention will be beyond the 2012 season. By trading him to a division rival, they'd be strengthening the rival over the next two years, but conceivably weakening them beyond 2012 by stripping prospects. Granted a lot depends on what said rival did with Grienke beyond his current contract, but trading within the division in KC's position is at least a zero-sum game in my books.

ayjackson - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 11:11 AM EST (#227935) #

Making fun of someone's illness is pretty creepy.

Seconded. That was kind of ugly.

R Romero Vaughan - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 11:12 AM EST (#227936) #

Is it neccesarily true that Greinke for $27m for 2 years is more valuable than Marcum for $8m or $9m for 2 years.

I think people are ignoring the contract situation when attributing value.

Marcum was a very valuable commodity given his contract situation and low base '10 salary. AA should have got alot for him.

bpoz - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 11:41 AM EST (#227937) #

I am enjoying reading all the differing opinions on everything.

But I was wondering if from our 2010 top 4 SP if ONE was better than the other 3. AA declined to rank them. I am guessing that there is a difference of opinion among the Bauxites. I choose Cecil because he learned a new pitch very fast, he also said that his 2009's ML experience made him ready to "handle" BOS,NYY & TB. Except for Sept, I think he did handle them.
So if they are fairly equal, then would comparing Greinke & Marcum in 2011 give us an evaluation of how good our top 3 are. I expect all 5 are ranked as #2 or#3 type pitchers. I don't rank Greinke as a #1 but I suspect others do.

Mike Green - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 12:30 PM EST (#227938) #

The December 20 birthday team features a great offence: Gabby Hartnett and Spud Otis catching, Cecil Cooper at first, Jimmy Williams at second, Augie Ojeda at short and David Wright at third with Harry Stovey, David DeJesus and Oscar Gamble in the outfield and Aubrey Huff DHing. They might score 950-1000 runs. And they would need it, with a rotation of Jamie Shields, Jose DeLeon, George Pipgras, Bill Laskey and Paul Moskau and no relief of any use whatsoever. Their ace in the hole, though, is GM Branch Rickey.

electric carrot - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 01:44 PM EST (#227939) #

but from this point forward it might be harder to predict and that is what matters most.

I don't mean to sound abrasive but this also seems obvious. Last year wasn't a great year for Greinke but he still had a very respectable .696 OPS against. And how many times have we seen a dip year after a Cy Young year -- especially when the stakes are so low in Kansas? I look at it this way: How many CYA winners in recent history have come from last place teams? The only recent examples I can think of are King Felix and Steve Carlton. That's pretty great company. Obviously if he lives up to that pairing he's going to be a HOF candidate. But if he's even 3/4 as good as that I think he easily trumps a young bat with lots of potential ... I think people are reading too much into last year's results and not enough into the year prior. This guy is an animal.

BalzacChieftain - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 02:21 PM EST (#227941) #

R. Griffin's latest tweet:

"Greinke never surrendered no-trade with Jays. It started with Drabek Snider and 2 more. Snider was deal breaker but never got that far."

None of this surprises me if what he is saying comes from a reliable source. Also read via Twitter that Greinke waived his no-trade to the Brew Crew because they acquired Marcum and don't plan on dealing Prince.

Shaker - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 02:44 PM EST (#227942) #

I agree with the e-carrot and I use the Big Unit to buttress the case for Greinke.

In 1998, Unit demanded a trade out of Seattle. The year prior Unit was runner-up in the CY voting.

Here's what Unit did in 1998 while in Seattle over 23 starts: 9-10, 4.33 ERA and a 3.55 K:BB
Here's what he did (in the same season) after being traded to the NL Central in 11 starts: 10-1.1.28 ERA and a 4.46 K:BB

The Sabathia story is not terribly different when he left Cleveland for the NL. This is not to damn the NL but rather to highlight the importance of comfort and motivation.

Greinke is a sublime talent. Rare and very high end. He will thrive in the NL, as long as the Brew remain competitive.

Mike Green - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 03:11 PM EST (#227944) #

Snider vs. Greinke is about talent and salary. Greinke's xFIP the last 3 years has been 3.76, 3.15 and 3.76. There is no reason to expect that his ERA will be lower than 3.5. He has delivered over 200 innings each of the last 3 years, and that has been a large part of his value. Just to put that in perspective, Halladay's xFIP in the last 3 years has been 3.14, 3.05 and 2.92 and he has thrown 25 more innings per season. Greinke is a very good pitcher, but a long way behind Halladay, Lincecum and Hernandez. And for that, the Brewers are on the hook for $13.5 million per season for 2 years and after that whatever the market will bear. The excess value there is no more than $5 million a year, and probably less factoring in the risk of a DL trip or two.

Snider, on the other hand, is very likely to deliver substantially more excess value than that in the first two years due to his service time and is reasonably likely to deliver additional excess value during the last few arbitration years, as well.

Trade value has nothing to do with career value or Hall of Fame chances.

electric carrot - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 03:43 PM EST (#227946) #

Trade value has nothing to do with career value

That depends how you look at it. It's clear to me that you look at a trade with the clear-eyed perspective of a pretend GM who needs to worry about the bottom line. The money part of baseball doesn't interest me. I have to do my own taxes every year and don't want to also have to think about the financials for my team too.

So I look at it from the doe-eyed perspective of a baseball fan. That means, who I get to watch on the field.

And if you give me a choice between potential big bat vs. potential hall candidate -- as a fan the latter has more trade value.

If you say the dollar value for player value is better with the other alternative -- I start to get sleepy and want to take a nap.

pubster - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 04:30 PM EST (#227948) #

For his career, EE has hit a homerun every 22.5 at bats.
Since becoming a Jay, he's hit a home run every 18.4 at bats.

If the jays can find a way to get EE 500-550 at bats, he's a good bet for 25+ home runs.

Heres the rate each of the Jays 7 regulars has hit home runs over their career/their last two years/and how many they 'ought' to hit with 500-550 at bats next year.

EE/22.5/18.4/27
Bautista/20.55/13.5/32
Wells/24.5/27.1/20
Lind/22.9/19.93/25
Hill/32.6/19.5/26
Snider/24.5/23.4/21
Escobar/56.3/56.9/10

So the 7 regulars should be able to hit about 161 home runs if they get 500-550 at bats next year.

Add a 3b, Catcher, Bench and account for the fact that those guys wont all get 500 - 550 at bats and what do you end with? 200 HRs?

Only 3 teams (Jays, Red Sox, Yankees) hit over 200 last year.

So I think that the jays should have another powerful lineup even with regression to the mean (ie. Bautista).

In terms of on base, is it really reasonable to expect Lind/Hill/Encarnacion all to struggle as they did? I know people have said that these players have been hitting a lot of popups and thats what caused the low BABIP, but I expect significant OBP improvement from this group if only because they regress to the mean.

So overall I think that the offence should be above average (which i understand may be below average for the AL East).

(just thinking out loud)

I guess the way to compete with the big boys is to have many superstars on your team. I think the Jays would need 4-7 all star type performances from their pitchers/position players. Maybe their best bet is to try to develop all stars at every position (like I believe AA is trying to do) and hope that 3-5 of them do pan out into all star level players. Then maybe via free agency you sign another all star or two and go for it all.

Mike Green - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 04:45 PM EST (#227949) #

I am a fan too, electric carrot. But, if money is no object, I wouldn't be pining for Zack Greinke. Instead, I'd be wondering about a long-term deal for Jose Bautista.

pubster - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 04:54 PM EST (#227951) #

Sorry meant to put this in the "Guess who's back to town thread".

electric carrot - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 04:56 PM EST (#227952) #

Instead, I'd be wondering about a long-term deal for Jose Bautista.

amen to that!

Richard S.S. - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 05:24 PM EST (#227954) #

I believe we will regret not signing Jose Bautista long-term (3 years + option year(s),$30.00 MM + $10-$20 MM) this off-season. After all, Jose had Off-Season Surgery (hernia) for an injury incurred in May. How much did the injury take away from what he did?

ayjackson - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 05:43 PM EST (#227955) #

Arb playeors are usually signed after Jan 1 and before their February hearing. I'm not sure where you heard Bautista was signable to a 3-yr $30m contract - that's news to me. How about a source?

Flex - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 06:14 PM EST (#227957) #

I suspect that Bautista contract isn't news, just a guesstimate of what it would take.

greenfrog - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 06:16 PM EST (#227958) #

I wouldn't be surprised if Bautista is content to play out the season without an extension, especially in light of the Werth and Crawford signings. J-Bau stands to do a lot better than three years and $30M if he comes anywhere close to his 2010 stats. Although his numbers are so weird: he'd never had a 100 OPS+ season before (typically hovering around the 90-99 range in recent years), and then last year comes up with a 166 OPS+ season. Depending on which version of Bautista shows up in 2011, he could command a contract worth $30M, $50M, $75M or more - especially given that he'll be only 31 after next year.

Even AA might be content with the current situation. After all, without an extension, Bautista has a huge incentive to perform well in 2011. The Jays can always trade him for prospects at the deadline or let him depart as a FA (possibly as a Type A) and collect more draft picks. Given the Marcum trade, I think it's fair to say that locking up 30-something players isn't a high priority for AA, at least not yet.

92-93 - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 07:54 PM EST (#227962) #

I would be very upset if they threw 3/30 at Bautista now - where's the team discount? How much more than 11m per year do you think he would make if he was an FA right now if you're willing to give him that contract?! Once the Jays traded Marcum I assumed Bautista was being shopped as well - whether or not someone is willing to make it worth AA's while is another story, and I suspect no one has. But throwing money at a guy a year earlier than you have to very rarely works out for the team unless there's a massive discount. It's the reason I wasn't as excited as most around here when the Lind & Romero extensions were signed - I didn't see enough of a team discount that it made sense to give those extensions when they were given.

I agree with the sentiment that the Greinke haul proves AA did very well with Marcum, and that people too easily write off the extra 20m Greinke is going to be paid over Marcum through 2012 - that's 4-5 top international FA prospects that you have to add to the Marcum side of the equation. I understand that people just want to be "fans" and don't care how much Marcum or Greinke makes, but around here the conversation tends to delve a little bit deeper than that.

timpinder - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 07:58 PM EST (#227963) #

I think that signing Bautista to an extension would be a mistake. This wasn't a 23 year old top prospect having his breakout season, this was a 30 year old having a career year. AA would be wise to trade while his value is high, in my opinion.

electric carrot - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 08:30 PM EST (#227964) #

but around here the conversation tends to delve a little bit deeper than that

That's a flattering way to aggrandize your own set of interests.

If I were to do the same I might say the conversation goes further off course into things that have more to do with Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes than actual baseball as it happens on the field.

For the record I'm also a great fan of movies but don't care a whit for what they gross at the box-office and how much money Miramax makes -- or whether they signed Tarantino for the right amount of money to direct the film and whether they could have gotten a young rookie to direct for less money and better value. I just like great cinema. I only care about the financial part of it inasmuch as the industry can still make great memorable movies -- not whether the movies I like got great deals on its stars and its directors etc ...

Same with baseball.

If I were to flatter my position further I might add that your interest in the financial side is symptomatic of a culture whose sense of value is oddly linked to the financial interests of the people who own and manage companies. I'm glad people are willing to do that work but
little of this was part of being a fan thirty years ago and I expect that it's a fad that will wane and maybe even seem silly to people 30 years in the future.

But I'll try to refrain from making those kinds of arguments that make my position sound reasonable and yours weirdly symptomatic of a culture that cares most about money, marketing and managing resources rather than the actual thing that's being managed and marketed.

Instead I'll say I am invested in the game and enjoy deeper conversations about the game and all its statistical complexity. And while I see the financial side as relevant I do get really bored with what I view as an over-identification with those who control the money and talk about players as pure commodities with dollar value.

Sincerely.
EC

Ryan Day - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 09:21 PM EST (#227965) #

"This wasn't a 23 year old top prospect having his breakout season, this was a 30 year old having a career year. AA would be wise to trade while his value is high, in my opinion."

There are a couple of problems with this line of thinking. If it's that simple, and he just had a career year, wouldn't every other GM know that, too? How high is his value if everyone expects him to be less valuable next year?

So the question is what kind of hitter he'll be in 2011. I don't expect him to hit 50 homers again, but I don't think he'll go back to being a utility player, either. Sure, 2010 was a career year, but you don't just fluke your way to 50 home runs.

If he continues to be a serious hitter in 2011, maybe he's a more valuable asset at the trade deadline. Or perhaps he turns into a Type A FA.

If another team wants to make a great offer, sure, go for it. But I don't know how likely that is, nor does anyone know how valuable Bautista will be 6 months from now.

greenfrog - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 09:35 PM EST (#227966) #

"you don't just fluke your way to 50 home runs"

Brady Anderson, annual HR totals (1988-2002): 1, 0, 1, 4, 3, 2, 21, 13, 12, 16, 50, 18, 18, 24, 19, 8, 1

greenfrog - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 09:42 PM EST (#227967) #

Davey Johnson, annual HR totals (1965-78): 0, 7, 10, 9, 7, 10, 18, 5, 43, 15, 0 (in 1 AB), 8, 4

I actually think that Bautista will post a robust HR total next year, but there are a couple of precedents for massive outlier HR totals.

whiterasta80 - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 10:11 PM EST (#227968) #

Interesting Tidbit on MLBTR.

Someone was saying that Greinke shelved his slider at some point last year in order to tax his arm less in preparation for a deal out of town. I can't say that I noticed this personally, but it may explain part of the regression he had from his Cy Young season.

SK in NJ - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 10:12 PM EST (#227969) #

2007
Greinke: 3.80 ERA, 68.2 IP, 10.4 H/9, 2.7 BB/9, 6.7 K/9*
SMarcum: 3.91 ERA, 142.2 IP, 8.4 H/9, 2.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9*

2008
Greinke: 3.47 ERA, 202.1 IP, 9.0 H/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.1 K/9
SMarcum: 3.39 ERA, 151.1 IP, 7.5 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9

2009
Greinke: 2.16 ERA, 229.1 IP, 7.7 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9
SMarcum: N/A

2010
Greinke: 4.17 ERA, 220.0 IP, 9.0 H/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9
SMarcum: 3.64 ERA, 195.1 IP, 8.3 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9

*numbers as starters, not including relief numbers.

I'm not saying Marcum is better than Greinke, but when you consider cost both in terms of contract and prospects to give up, in addition to actual performance, I don't see how it made any sense for Toronto to acquire Greinke at the expense of Marcum. Also consider Greinke faces inferior competition in the AL Central, while Marcum pitches in the toughest division in baseball.

If the Jays had to give up Snider to get ZG, than simply keep Marcum and Snider. Much better off that way. Luckily AA did not pay that price, and according to Rosenthal ZG did not want to play for Toronto anyway.

dan gordon - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 11:15 PM EST (#227970) #

Greinke's 2009 season is a huge outlier from the rest of his career. Until he shows he can perform anywhere close to that level again, I think the reasonable assessment is that he won't. Given that he and Marcum were both traded to the same team it will be interesting to compare their performance - they will have the same schedule for a change. I would be very surprised if Greinke outperforms Marcum by a substantial margin, barring injury.

Magpie - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 11:53 PM EST (#227971) #

I'm not saying Marcum is better than Greinke

Good, because you left out a fairly significant difference between the two pitchers, the one which happens to be Marcum's single greatest weakness as a pitcher. The gopher ball. Over those four seasons, Greinke allowed 62 HR in 773.2 IP; Marcum allowed 72 HR in 505.2 IP. If Marcum could keep the ball in the park at the same rate Greinke does (never mind someone like Ricky Romero) he'd by a Cy Young contender himself.

I'm sure gonna miss him anyway, though...

85bluejay - Monday, December 20 2010 @ 11:54 PM EST (#227972) #

The whole Greinke to Toronto thing was way overblown - AA was probably doing his due diligence as he should

but Greinke would not have approved a deal regardless once AA traded Marcum - Greinke said in his Mil. presser

that he wants to win this season and not wait - that the Marcum deal & decision to keep Prince changed his mind

regarding the Brewers.

If I were Bautista and the Jays offered me 3/30, I would say no thanks - if he has another 35plus homer season

I think he will be able to ask for werth type money - and I don't think the Jays will want to have 2 players eating up

so much of their budget - so the best thing for both sides is if AA can find a good trade for Bautista ala Marcum -

Probably has to wait until Beltre signs.

I'm hoping now that prices are coming down, that AA is able to sign some of the high level IFA talent still

available.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 12:00 AM EST (#227973) #

Home run park factors, 2006-09. Kauffman Stadium is the second-worst HR park in baseball. It'll be interesting to see how well Greinke avoids the longball in the Brewers' less forgiving barn.

Marcum has issues against stacked lineups that can just swing for the moon with abandon, figuring they have so many powerful hitters that no matter how stupid they look half the time, eventually they'll just run into a couple. I figure he should do pretty well in the NL Central.

Ryan C - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 12:42 AM EST (#227974) #

the best thing for both sides is if AA can find a good trade for Bautista

Maybe. But I agree with you, If I was Bautista I wouldn't accept a $10 mil/year deal at this point either. If I was the Jays, and I thought Bautista would accept $10mil/year I would have signed the contract yesterday. That is great value even if Bautista regresses somewhat, which I don't believe he will significantly. Nevertheless, even if he asks for more than $10 mil, I believe Bautista is the kind of player the Jays, and Rogers, will open the purse strings for.

92-93 - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 01:30 AM EST (#227975) #

EC - I'd love for the talk around here to be more about the actual game played between the lines, but unfortunately it just isn't that way. And hasn't been for years. People are more concerned with value than the actual players involved. Posnanski's article on the Greinke trade was sympathetic towards what you're saying - that to the average fan in KC they got little in return for Beltran (Teahen & Buck), and they went out and did the same thing with Greinke - the value might be okay, but from a fans perspective they got a defensive SS who can't hit and a mediocre OF for a CY Young winner. Nobody cares about Jeffress and what Odorizzi might turn into - he's just another stud in a long list of players that have left KC the minute they were valuable commodities. Sounds like what Godfrey was trying to avoid if he indeed was the one who orchestrated the Vernon Wells extension, as people like to surmise.

Bautista has to be awfully confident in his own abilities if he can turn down 30m guaranteed over 3 years when he's "only" made 7.2m since 2004. I think Toronto would be silly to offer it, and I think he'd be silly not to accept it. What's the worst case scenario? He goes crazy on the league again in 2011 and can earn himself a Jayson Werth contract? The Jays claim they can afford players if need be, and there's Type A compensation if they decide he isn't worth what someone is willing to give him. There's no reason to go guaranteeing him money when he could just as easily revert back to his pre-2010 form and be worth closer to what EE got in this FA market. If Bautista wants security for 2012-2013 it shouldn't cost the team any more per season than he's going to make this year in arbitration, and I'd be surprised if the Jays had to pay him as much as 10m in that process.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 04:55 AM EST (#227976) #

Vernon Wells contract, 7 Years, $126.0 MM, is not a problem contract, paying $86.0 MM over the last 4 years is the problem; how the contract was structured, was the problem.

Giving Wells 7 years, until age 35, was not unreasonable at the time of signing, and is still reasonable now. Paying a $7.0 MM Bonus with paying $17.0 MM per year (same amount), or $14.0 MM Bonus, paying $16.0MM per year (same amount), is much more reasonable. Easier to earn the value of the contract.

There is precedent for Jose Bautista and his Agent to ask for $10.0MM - $12.0MM in Jose`s rare 4th year of arbitration. This is Fielder, Howard, Pujols money and those are Jose`s comparables. We have to avoid making an offer that might be considered an insult. I don`t have any doubt he`ll be an offensive force the rest of his career. (He and his ego grew up this year, he admitted to himself, he needed to change his approach to the game.) Signing Jose now let`s us get year one and maybe year two for less. Waiting until midseason or next off-season will cost us more. A three-year deal now (ages 30, 31, 32 plus option year or years, ages 33, 34) could save $3.0 MM - $5.0 MM in costs. Waiting, (ages 31, 32, 33 plus option year or years, ages 34, 35) will cost a lot more. Option Year or Years adds player value when being traded - players are no longer rentals, they`re investments.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 08:44 AM EST (#227978) #

Good, because you left out a fairly significant difference between the two pitchers, the one which happens to be Marcum's single greatest weakness as a pitcher. The gopher ball. Over those four seasons, Greinke allowed 62 HR in 773.2 IP; Marcum allowed 72 HR in 505.2 IP. If Marcum could keep the ball in the park at the same rate Greinke does (never mind someone like Ricky Romero) he'd by a Cy Young contender himself.

Marcum gives up HR's, but is good at preventing baserunners, so it has never really hurt his performance. Plus his HR/9 has dropped each year from 1.5, to 1.2, to 1.1. Giving up 24 dingers in nearly 200 innings isn't terrible.

Look at the ratios. K/9, BB/9, H/9, ERA....Marcum is right on par with or better than Greinke since 2007, and that is with Marcum pitching in the AL East and Greinke pitching in the AL Least (AKA the Central). The difference between the two of them performance-wise is not very huge, unless you want to emphasize 2009 over anything else Greinke has ever done. Granted, Greinke is far more likely to eat up innings, but Marcum's first full season was 2010 (after missing a season) so it is not fair to say Marcum will never be a 200 IP guy.

greenfrog - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 08:56 AM EST (#227979) #

I could see Marcum having a very successful year in 2011. He had an excellent year in 2010 coming off TJ surgery. He's still in his prime. He's moving to the NL, where he will face weaker lineups, and where he'll be able to contribute to his own W-L record with the bat (check out his college batting stats). Being on a playoff contender will no doubt get him stoked up. I could see 200 IP of solid pitching (ERA below 3.50, maybe well below, 175 Ks or so, low walk total), and maybe 15+ wins to boot (I know that wins aren't really an indicator of success, but they're kind of a nice frill).

The only downside is that he won't have Lyle, Aaron, and Alex/Yunel picking it behind him. Of course, he won't have EE and Lewis/VW/Snider behind him, either.

greenfrog - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 09:12 AM EST (#227980) #

As for baseball economics, I actually enjoy thinking about that side of the game. I don't think it detracts from the performance side. If anything, I think having more knowledgeable fans puts pressure on ownership to do what it takes to compete. The Internet has opened up so many different aspects of the game for interactive discussion, and, among other things, gives fans an appreciation of who the truly impressive GMs and front offices are (Andrew Friedman and the Rays, for example).

I don't pine for the olden days, when owners and sportswriters knew best, team finances were private matters, players had no clout, and fans waited patiently for the boxscores in the morning newspaper, living and dying by batting averages, home runs, RBIs and the like.

electric carrot - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 11:23 AM EST (#227982) #

Thanks BumWino for the shout out. You do have a way with words. I'm done with that subject/rant.

The difference between the two of them performance-wise is not very huge

Barring injury, if Marcum has a better year than Greinke in Milwaukee (let's say judged by OPS against) I will change my name from "electric carrot" to "unplugged turnip."

I think there is some serious misunderestimating of Greinke on this site.

Gerry - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 12:03 PM EST (#227984) #

The Jays are working on filling their Las Vegas roster.

The TORONTO BLUE JAYS have signed OF COREY PATTERSON, RHP WINSTON ABREU, C RYAN BUDDE, LHP SEAN HENN, LHP MIKE HINCKLEY and RHP BRIAN STOKES to minor league contracts with invites to Major League spring training.

stevieboy22 - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 12:09 PM EST (#227985) #

The Jays are working on filling their Las Vegas roster.

I hope that's true in Patterson's case.. I'm not thrilled about him being a Blue Jay, he just simply doesn't get on base enough and that's over a pretty significant amount of at bats... I would like to see them give Mastroianni a shot in camp, which I think they might do... Perhaps we could have a Maestro/Davis platoon?

Flex - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 12:10 PM EST (#227986) #

You do have a way with words.

Really? I dunno. He uses a lot of them. I'm not so crazy about the order he puts them in.

Original Ryan - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 12:29 PM EST (#227987) #

It appears that Ryan Budde has spent the last six seasons as the backup catcher in Salt Lake City. These days it's almost unheard of for a guy to spend that many years with one AAA team.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 12:36 PM EST (#227988) #

Corey Patterson makes for an effective cautionary tale for prospect enthusiasts: In 2001, he was rated the 2nd-best prospect in baseball by BA, right between Josh Hamilton & Josh Beckett. He was also third in 2000, one spot ahead of Vernon Wells.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 12:43 PM EST (#227989) #

Mastroianni and Davis are both RHHs, so a platoon isn't possible. If Bautista plays third base, it is possible that Mastroianni starts the season as the fourth OFer and gets occasional work while Snider or Lind sits against a lefty.

cybercavalier - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 01:22 PM EST (#227990) #

I thought Las Vegas would have retained some of their near MLB ready AAA players, such as Chris Lubanski who could be a choice for the Jays outfield. (Dopirak signed with Astros AAA but his signing is understandable as Lind is almost penciled in as 1B). At any rate, when would the Jays usually sign players to minor league contract with spring invitation?

I am not sure about Patterson, Corey Patterson makes for an effective cautionary tale for prospect enthusiasts; BoSox and the Reds also took chances in Darnell McDonald just like Patterson. How about signing Reed Johnson and Gabe Gross, if nostalgia towards past prospects exist?

Are the Jays so confident that Mastro can be the 4th OF? he didn't play in AAA yet. Lastly, I did mention in previous poster that Budde is a possible catcher option.

It appears that Ryan Budde has spent the last six seasons as the backup catcher in Salt Lake City. These days it's almost unheard of for a guy to spend that many years with one AAA team.

Budde stuck behind four catchers on Angels' roster when Downs was signed; catching depth in Angels organization is quite amazing: Mathis, Napoli, Wilson, the September 2010 callup and Korean American Hank Conger (I am bit surprised to be know a Korean baseball player with an American name; usually names are either like Shin-Soo Choo or Don Wakamatsu, at least some clues of Asian roots are evident.) Budde just fit the bills of AA quest for a third catcher.

cybercavalier - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 01:29 PM EST (#227991) #

BTW, just skip your attention on my words for Patterson for prospect enthusiasts, even though it was a editing error. Still most teams signing Patterson are probably taking very small risk that probably this season he would break out. McDonald would be an example.

Magpie - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 02:09 PM EST (#227992) #

Budde just fit the bills of AA quest for a third catcher.

More like a fifth or sixth catcher, one would hope. The man must be awfully good with the glove to even still be playing professionally, because he hits like a pitcher. He's been in the PCL for six years, as a backup, and he's hit .235/.303/.369. In the PCL. I can think of several pitchers I'd send up to pinch hit for him...

Magpie - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 02:18 PM EST (#227993) #

Corey Patterson makes for an effective cautionary tale for prospect enthusiasts

He surely does. All that ability, but he never could control the strike zone. And the strikeouts just swallowed up his offense...

He'd probably make a very useful fourth outfielder, though. He can play CF, he can run, and he's not a bad hitter, by the standards of fourth outfielders anyway. Just so long as we're all agreed that he's not going to be a star. And that he should be kept away from southpaws...

Mylegacy - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 02:28 PM EST (#227994) #

Dear Unplugged Turnip - Dear Unplugged Turnip -

Just testing. Repeat - just testing. Sounds good to me.

christaylor - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 02:28 PM EST (#227995) #

JC Bradbury has a nice Q&A on the Freakonomics blog:

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/21/the-baseball-economist-answers-your-questions/

With this interesting tid bit on a topic of recent discussion on da box:

"when you look at competitive balance in baseball over time, the competitive balance measures that MLB has implemented in the past 15 years to improve competitive balance don�t seem to have had much effect. ... Even though teams are now sharing more revenue and facing a luxury tax (an almost-salary-cap), competitive balance hasn�t gotten any better. In general, research by sports economists doesn�t support the notion that salary caps in other leagues have improved competitive balance."

Good read...

christaylor - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 02:39 PM EST (#227997) #

"I think there is some serious misunderestimating of Greinke on this site."

I couldn't agree more. On this topic over beers, a pal of mine raised the question, seemingly out of the blue, "Who is better Morrow or Marcum." To me at least, the answer is obvious -- Morrow. If one watches Greinke pitch enough, one's eyes will tell you he's even better than Morrow.

I'm all for stats and all, I'm a huge fan of Marcum, but there's no comparison. This might be one instance where small differences in the statistical measures use, don't tell the whole story.

electric carrot, I wouldn't be so quick to pick OPS against to judge the value between the two -- I'd wager that Greinke will pitch at least 50 innings more than Marcum and even if the two have the same performance on OPS against, those 50-70 innings make Greinke the MUCH better pitcher. Throwing out replacement level (or below) pitchers to soak up innings is not fun.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 02:46 PM EST (#227998) #

I'd wager that Greinke will pitch at least 50 innings more than Marcum

What odds do I get?

rtcaino - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 02:53 PM EST (#227999) #

If you don't like the order of my written words, then it is your duty and responsibility to report me to the Syntax Police.

I haven't noticed any syntax errors, but you may be hearing from the CRSA.

(Concise and Relevant Statements Authority)

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 03:00 PM EST (#228000) #

50 more innings for Greinke? I'll take that wager on a 1:1 cuttlefish basis. What better time for sushi than the holiday season?

christaylor - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 03:03 PM EST (#228001) #

No need for odds, this is better... pick a number. I'll pick Greinke at +50 (even though, I'll admit I was being a bit over the top picking that number in the original comment) pick your number and the closest in terms of absolute error wins a cuttlefish.

All this is to say, I have serious doubts about Marcum throwing 200 IP again and that Greinke could pitch 200-220 again easily. The suspicious side of me believes that the Jays have doubts about his durability as well -- as Marcum could have easily been part of the team in the 2013 "window".

Alex Obal - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 03:11 PM EST (#228002) #

Depends on how many people are in this game. If it's just us I'll take 49.99999. In all seriousness, maybe 20, with the knowledge that there's a good chance one guy gets hurt and the other one wins by a mile.

Would be more interesting to do probability distributions, though I'm not sure how you would pick a winner.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 03:11 PM EST (#228003) #

Morrow is much flashier and has more potential - 17 Ks doesn't happen every day - but he has yet to show it off all season. He couldn't get anything over the plate in April & May, while Marcum just kept making hitters look stupid with an 88mph fastball.

Morrow could be one of the very best pitchers in baseball, but he hasn't done it yet. Marcum's been better so far.

Dewey - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 03:26 PM EST (#228004) #

You listen to Mr. Bum at your peril, gentlemen. Syntax intact or not. He�s kissed the Blather Stone [sic], and loves to hear himself pontificate. His �way with words� is suspiciously specious. Caveat emptor. The level of hot air in here since he arrived has escalated dramatically. (If more of his blather was actually about baseball, rather than himself, it might be bearable.)

*

BTW, I liked your post, EC.

Original Ryan - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 03:30 PM EST (#228005) #

More like a fifth or sixth catcher, one would hope. The man must be awfully good with the glove to even still be playing professionally, because he hits like a pitcher. He's been in the PCL for six years, as a backup, and he's hit .235/.303/.369. In the PCL. I can think of several pitchers I'd send up to pinch hit for him...

Budde looks like Ken Huckaby Part II. A guy who could be called-up as a short-term backup while letting the real catching prospects continue to play full-time in AAA.

For those interested in knowing Huckaby's current whereabouts, he's now running a baseball instructional camp in Arizona. He always seemed destined to become a coach.

Shaker - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 03:41 PM EST (#228006) #

For those of you in a lather about AA's lack of "action" this off-season, I ask whether the sign of Adrian Beltre (he of the .302/.350/.505 3-year ROAD slash line) would ease your pain?

Does adding Beltre plus a second tier closer put us, on paper, in serious contention for a playoff spot? Or are we just too far away to bother with the big signings?

(Feel free to add Manny or Nick Johnson to an incentive laden contract while you're at it if you like.)

As an aside, Beltre's defense is more important than Crawford's and his road OPS is superior yet his contract at this point is 50% the size of Crawford's. The 2 year difference in age is thus paid for with $70M...

cybercavalier - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 03:41 PM EST (#228007) #

More like a fifth or sixth catcher, one would hope. The man must be awfully good with the glove to even still be playing professionally, because he hits like a pitcher. He's been in the PCL for six years, as a backup, and he's hit .235/.303/.369. In the PCL. I can think of several pitchers I'd send up to pinch hit for him... Budde looks like Ken Huckaby Part II. A guy who could be called-up as a short-term backup while letting the real catching prospects continue to play full-time in AAA.

Stats in minors:
Budde: .235/.303/.369/.672 for 9 seasons
Chavez: .254/.305/.338/.643 for 20 seasons
Huckaby: .271/.304/.348/.651 for 18 seasons
Erik Kratz: .252/.325/.434/.760 for 9 seasons

Actually, Kratz is exactly 10 months younger than Budde; he was a Jays farms product and available as free agent. I wished the Jays signed him but he is now a Philles AAA catcher.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 03:49 PM EST (#228008) #

Barring injury, if Marcum has a better year than Greinke in Milwaukee (let's say judged by OPS against) I will change my name from "electric carrot" to "unplugged turnip."

I think there is some serious misunderestimating of Greinke on this site.

I'll bite. I posted these numbers before, but I will add opponent's OPS and HR/9 to this since those were two stats mentioned.

2007
Greinke: 3.80 ERA, 68.2 IP, 10.4 H/9, 2.7 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, .840 oOPS**
Marcum : 3.91 ERA, 142.2 IP, 8.4 H/9, 2.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, .743 oOPS**

2008
Greinke: 3.47 ERA, 202.1 IP, 9.0 H/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, .715 oOPS
Marcum : 3.39 ERA, 151.1 IP, 7.5 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, .681 oOPS

2009
Greinke: 2.16 ERA, 229.1 IP, 7.7 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, .611 oOPS
Marcum : N/A

2010
Greinke: 4.17 ERA, 220.0 IP, 9.0 H/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, .696 oOPS
Marcum : 3.64 ERA, 195.1 IP, 8.3 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, .691 oOPS

**Numbers as starters only

So in 2007, 2008, and 2010, Marcum had a better opponent's OPS than Greinke despite pitching in a much tougher division/park. In 2007, 2008, and 2010, Marcum allowed fewer hits/IP while maintaining a very similar K/9. In 2008 and 2010, Marcum had better ERA's than Greinke, again, despite tougher direct competition.

Is Greinke a better bet moving forward? Sure. He has the stuff of an ace, is younger, and has proven to be an innings eater. However, look at the numbers to this point and tell me the performance has favored Greinke (outside of 2009 where Marcum didn't even pitch). It hasn't. Marcum's only downfall with innings came in 2007 where he spent a month and a half in relief, and 2008 where he missed time due to elbow problems (surgery). Not necessarily his doing as much as it was circumstance.

Is it "misunderestimating" Greinke or underrating Marcum? That's up to you guys to decide. Greinke had a great 2009, and that's it. He's simply been "very good" outside of that.

Jonny German - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 04:08 PM EST (#228009) #

Original Ryan - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 04:32 PM EST (#228010) #

For those of you in a lather about AA's lack of "action" this off-season, I ask whether the sign of Adrian Beltre (he of the .302/.350/.505 3-year ROAD slash line) would ease your pain?

Some here would likely be quite happy if the Blue Jays signed Beltre. However, if the Blue Jays gave Beltre the 5 or 6 year contract he's apparently looking for, I think it would be a huge mistake based on his up-and-down career.

Shaker - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 05:05 PM EST (#228011) #

No, definitely NOT advocating long term with Beltre.

I would assume the shorter we go the higher the annual cost, though. I'm thinking 3 x $17M or 2 x $19M or even 1 year at $20M + an option at a similar amount. It's all very pricey but still below the AAV of Werth and Crawford - and given the low current team salary - within the Jays' means.

My post wasn't really about the dollars though, more about whether we are close enough to make the push...and whether those who felt we should spend now thought Beltre was enough to put us clearly in contention.

Original Ryan - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 06:07 PM EST (#228012) #

I would assume the shorter we go the higher the annual cost, though. I'm thinking 3 x $17M or 2 x $19M or even 1 year at $20M + an option at a similar amount. It's all very pricey but still below the AAV of Werth and Crawford - and given the low current team salary - within the Jays' means.

I don't think that would work for either Beltre or the Blue Jays. Beltre would be gambling that he could still land a significant contract when he becomes a free agent at age 33-35. If is performance drops off again or the market cools off, he'd have been better off accepting the Angels' reported offer of 5 years/$70 million.

From Toronto's perspective, I'm not convinced Beltre would put the Blue Jays over the top even if he continued to hit like he did in 2010. If he returns to being a good-but-not-great player (a scenario that I think is quite possible), the team would have been better off spending that $17-20 million elsewhere. Beltre would be a very risky signing for that kind of money, and I just don't think he's worth it.

The only way I see the Blue Jays being interested in Beltre is if he holds for out too long and the market for his services evaporates. If he wound up having to look at signing a one-year contract similar to the one he got from Boston last offseason, then it might make sense for the Blue Jays to pursue him. Otherwise, I'd pass.

electric carrot - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 06:13 PM EST (#228013) #

OK SK you've cornered me so I'll have to reveal what it seems to me you are missing. Here are Greinke's oOPS in line 2007-2010

.840
.715
.611
.691

You and many others seem to think .611 is the aberration year. I don't think so. I think it's the .691 year. If that's true where does the trend line lead?

I'm personally betting that we see really rude #'s from Greinke in the NL that will make people reconsider trade value arguments of days gone by.

If not I'll turn into a pumpkin, or a rutabega or a squash ... or

bpoz - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 07:10 PM EST (#228014) #

EC, I really like your idea/challenge Marcum VS Greinke.

To some winning the contest or winning on a difference of opinion may influence their analysis, but for me I don't care in that regard. But a lot of good baseball views will be expressed, which I really value.
I will now give my opinion on 3 pitchers, I probably have misjudged on some areas.
I always thought Pedro Martinez was a great pitcher, I also thought he always had trouble when the 7th inning started. My conclusion was that he tired, similarly Marcum tired by the 8th inning, again my opinion. Now Jack Morris could go 9 innings without tiring.
If I could choose only 1 of those 3 I would choose Martinez. I know Morris also had a longer career, and was one of the most durable pitchers.
On Marcum, I seem to remember that often he got into the 6th inning with inly 1 hit against, I mean that he was very good for about 6 innings and then he had to be watched for a fast breakdown.

I know I am off on a tangent but if Martinez and Marcum really are like I said, incredible in the first 6 innings then I would love to have them on my team. I would deal with the 7th inning by having the pen ready and have a pen that can handle 3 innings.

I am sure Marcum will lose in IP. So 30-50 IP more for Greinke, maybe Marcum make it up some other way.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 10:46 PM EST (#228018) #

For those of you in a lather about AA's lack of "action" this off-season, I ask whether the sign of Adrian Beltre (he of the .302/.350/.505 3-year ROAD slash line) would ease your pain?

I'm not totally swayed by that because I'm not sure the Boston road stats are relevant. By my figures his road number in Seattle - which include both awful seasons and neither of the good ones - work out to a .799 OPS. In three of the five seasons, his OPs+ on the road was as high or higher than the best work we've ever gotten out of 3B for the Jays, the other two it was league average.

However

I've softened some on Beltre.

He's had two god-awful seasons in the last seven seasons, and two monster seasons which almost perfectly counterbalance those.

His overall .OPS over the last seven years is .821, and when you factor in the difference in his home/road splits in Seattle (.113, .159, .71 higher on the road in each of his last three years there, respectively) then yeah, he's probably in reality about an .850-ish hitter in an average year.

But even if his true-talent level of the next 3-5 years is more like .820, that's gonna put you anywhere from 6th best to 10th in the majors any year in the past decade.

that and sterling defense has a lot of value.

I DON'T think he's remotely worth the 16-17 a year he supposedly was looking for, but I, for one, would go 5 years and 45-50 on him without a lot of hesitation (assuming that is what it took to land him - I wouldn't bid against myself). if the market is hesitating and we can slip in the back door and get a good deal, my biggest concern wouldn't be the annual cost but the draft pick.

I won't be disappointed if we don't, but I'd be perfectly content if we did.

greenfrog - Tuesday, December 21 2010 @ 11:44 PM EST (#228019) #

I think part of the problem is that AA doesn't want to end up with another Ricciardi-like logjam at the infield corners (Corey Koskie, anyone?). Between Bautista, EE, Escobar, Hill and Lawrie (and maybe Sweeney someday), the Jays have a lot of players who could be destined for the hot corner over the next few years (although J-Bau and EE will likely be gone after this year). Maybe they should hold off and offer Pujols A-Rod money next off-season instead...

TamRa - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 01:02 AM EST (#228022) #

IF, being AA, my mind was made up - and ownership had approved - making Pujols the highest paid player in the game next year, then yeah that would stay my hand this year

As for the rest - if you let Bautista go, Lawrie can play RF (assuming) and there's always the possibility Hill continues to disappoint and you open up 2B (though I'm not predicting that). EE isn't even on my radar of things to worry about next year.

My thinking is that IF we'd heard the Jays were in on Beltre, we could be confident they aren-t. since we haven't heard they are interested, AA might be deep into negotiations as we speak!

92-93 - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 08:55 AM EST (#228029) #

He supposedly turned down 5/70 from LAA so I can't see how or why the Blue Jays would be involved, but a heavily front-loaded contract for Beltre would make a lot of sense to me. Pay him something like 22-18-13-10-7 if you're going to do it, giving the bulk of the contract in the first 2 years when you are projected to have a limited payroll anyway. That could keep the player happy - the quicker he gets the money the quicker he can invest/blow it, and it works for the team because it helps him retain trade value into the contract if the Blue Jays have already paid most of it off in the first couple seasons.

Shaker - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 10:09 AM EST (#228033) #

TamRa, thanks for the response.

We are in agreement that Beltre serves up outstanding defense (at a fairly key position) and is an .820 to .850 OPS ballplayer, who is approaching the decline phase of his career. We also agree that Beltre still has a lot of value, especially over the next 2-3 years. (You have also implicitly shown that Beltre doesn't ONLY play well in contract years, as his walk year in Seattle was his worst.)

It looks like we differ on what that dollar value is though, and I wouldn't mind expanding on that topic. Obviously you and I would love to sign Beltre for 3 years at less than $5M per season. That's not going to work though as all other GM/owners would do that in a heartbeat. Given that Beltre is a Free Agent, we must enter a bidding process which determines his market value. There are apparently 2 bids out for Beltre's services: one at $13M/yr from Oakland and one at $15/yr from Anaheim. The arbitration process with Boston would probably grant him a similar salary.

Suggesting you would sign him for $9-10M per doesn't make any sense. It's like me saying I'm only paying $25K for a new 2011 5-series BMW. It's a non-statement, it's just not going to happen. I'm not attacking you here, in fact I think what you are saying is: I don't want Beltre at market value.

Everyone in the blogosphere wants to look smart by signing players for less than they are worth. Sometimes you have to pay up for missing pieces to put your team over the hump. In 2011 our starting rotation will earn less than $5M. That's less than a league average veteran starter makes. As a result of a high number of cheap, young players we can pay up for a free agent in order to improve our club.

What I'm wondering is: if we could sign Beltre to a short term deal, would he help us make the playoffs? If the answer is yes, then would it be wrong to pay him nearly $20M per (ie more than he'll get in a longer term deal) to accomplish that goal?

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 10:36 AM EST (#228035) #

Signing Adrian Beltre alone would be unlikely to help the Blue Jays make the playoffs in 2011, and the club may see Lawrie as its likely third baseman in 2012.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 11:17 AM EST (#228038) #

Beltre is going to end up in the AL West, I think. Apparently everyone but Seattle has an offer on the table already. I'd expect it to be LAA, personlally. Though I love the Rangers theoretical idea of signing the BSB and making Mike Young into Tony Phillips, positionally speaking ...

bpoz - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 11:32 AM EST (#228041) #

I heard AA speak of RF as a key defensive position, and he went on talking about RF. He said teams are just putting a guy there, but he sees that position very differently, this in the conversation about which position Lawrie could play. He said Lawrie's strong arm at 2nd is wasted and his foot speed is a concern for 3rd, he sounded the most positive about RF.
IMO the position Lawrie plays in 2011 may answer that question unless he plays multiple positions. I am wondering at which level Lawrie would play because AA did not say.

Magpie - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 02:49 PM EST (#228059) #

[Lawrie's] foot speed is a concern for 3rd

Say what? He can't be saying Lawrie's too slow to play third - that makes no sense whatsoever.

BumWino - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 03:01 PM EST (#228060) #

You're the General Manager...

It's November 2011, and you're faced with a major decision.

Vernon Wells has hit .340 with 40 HR and 140 RBI, everybody else had a career year, and Rajai Davis' first home run of 2011 was a walk-away job in the seventh game of the World Series.

Brian Cashman telephones you, and says, "We'll take Wellsy's contract off your hands now. You don't even have to pay half his salary. We'll spring for the whole thing."

What do you do now? And why?

bpoz - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 03:49 PM EST (#228063) #

Magpie... AA was talking about reflexes at 3rd and it was the foot speed that he was concerned with. I am almost sure that is what I heard him say.

TamRa - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 03:59 PM EST (#228064) #

Obviously you and I would love to sign Beltre for 3 years at less than $5M per season.

Actually i was suggesting around $10 per, but upon further review, i agree that I might go as high as 14-15, or add a sixth year to keep it down around 13.

See my expanded thoughts here:

http://thesouthpawbaseball.blogspot.com/2010/12/making-case-for-adrian-beltre.html

pay him something like 22-18-13-10-7 if you're going to do it, giving the bulk of the contract in the first 2 years when you are projected to have a limited payroll anyway.

I could buy into that easy enough, though you might make part of that first year a signing bonus. You probably couldn't do quite that extreme a slope though.

Maybe you do a $5 mil signing bonus and 19-17-15-13-11 for a total of $80 and he could take comfort in an AAV of $16 per.

Jonny German - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 04:05 PM EST (#228065) #

Fatal error in your scenario BumWino - if Vernon Wells hits anything like that next season he will not be a Blue Jay in November, he'll opt out of the remainder of his contract.

Pretending he doesn't have that option for the sake of argument, I tell Cashman to get stuffed. If I decide I don't want to keep Wells it'll be easy to trade him outside the division. But most likely I just keep him.

The question is more interesting if Cashman makes that call today, 22 December 2010. That would be a bit of a dilemna, but I likely still wouldn't agree.

Magpie - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 04:05 PM EST (#228066) #

Reflexes and reaction time is indeed an issue. Lawrie has way more than enough pure foot speed.

bpoz - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 04:08 PM EST (#228067) #

BumWino...good question about Wells.

If I was GM, since I hate those expensive contracts, I would dump it. My reason is $. JP kept asking for $ and always had a budget below $100mil, so $20mil is 20% for 1 guy, which is too risky. If he is injured or has a bad year then as GM I lose 20% of my budget and so am restrained.
But since there is a clause (I believe) for Wells opting out, I would try to find out his intentions. As a FA he is worth draft picks.
If there is no opt out OR Wells plans on staying, I would contact other teams to see if they will do better in a trade. The way A Rios departed is another angle to this question.

Magpie - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 04:11 PM EST (#228068) #

Obviously, Lawrie does not run slowly at all but it's surely true that what's needed at third are quick feet, as opposed to running speed. Very slow runners (think Brooks Robinson) can have very quick feet indeed - much faster than the guys who cover the 90 feet between bases more quickly.

bpoz - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 04:25 PM EST (#228069) #

Magpie you said Reflexes and reaction time is indeed an issue. So just to clarify this point and not to nit pick. Are you agreeing that Lawrie is lacking in this talent or part of this talent as it applies to 3rd OR making a general statement about good 3rd base playing.

I am reasonably sure I heard that. Also he is a fast runner, so no problem there. Thanks for your patience.

bpoz - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 04:26 PM EST (#228070) #

My slow typing. Thanks Magpie.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 04:43 PM EST (#228072) #

Take it from a schoolyard third baseman. Both quick feet and quick hands are required. It aint called the hot corner because of the physique of the average third base coach!

Magpie - Wednesday, December 22 2010 @ 05:21 PM EST (#228074) #

I don't know what Lawrie's particular skill set is - he obviously has pretty good speed (he stole more bases last year at AA than Brooks Robinson did in 22 years in the majors.) But simple running speed isn't really required at third, and I certainly don't know if Lawrie has the specific skills that are required.

ayjackson - Thursday, December 23 2010 @ 04:58 PM EST (#228088) #

bpoz, my recollection of AA's comments on Lawrie is that he felt his reactions and reflexes made him a better fit at 3B than at 2B. i don't recall an assertion that he wasn't suited in any way to 3b.

BumWino - Friday, December 24 2010 @ 01:05 AM EST (#228093) #

Jonny German

I knew about Wells' player option. But at the current $20+ million per, I couldn't see him taking a chance on free agency for more dollars and more years based on the one big outlier year.

Keeping Wells around until the end of his contract is the way to go, as far as I'm concerned. He's a natural leader. He was the team's player rep. when he was 26 years old.

bpoz - Friday, December 24 2010 @ 09:01 AM EST (#228095) #

AY, AA spoke a lot about RF as a key position. He believed RF required a strong arm, he went on to say that many teams just stick a guy there. This was in a chat with Bob McCowan after the trade.
I know that we definitely need talent through out the system at 3B, but AA kept on about RF which convinced me that RF was the preferred position of the choices that Lawrie can play.

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