The guy who really got screwed is Roy Halladay - if I remember he got 4 yr. 80 mil : Lee gets 5yr 120m and an

easily attained 6th yr.

Wow... I can't even recreate that rotation in fantasy leagues. That is an unbelievable starting 4! I can't help thinking they could have extended him for less money last season (while still dealing for Halladay), but next season they could have 4 sub 1.2 WHIP pitchers.

I gotta say that it feels nice to know that the Yanks won`t be lining up Lee and Sabathia next season. 

Incidentally, is Montero a better prospect than Lawrie?  Because I gotta imagine that we could have moved Marcum for Montero today.

The guy who really got screwed is Roy Halladay

If Halladay had wanted to maximize his income, he would have gone the free agent route rather than signing a below-market extension (which I believe he has done twice now). He appears to want to be well compensated -- don't we all? --  but without participating in a free market bidding contest.

So I'd be really surprised if he feels screwed today.

Agreed. Halladay and his agent knew they were leaving $80 million or so on the table. Doc always said he wanted to play somewhere where he was happy and had a chance to win. He's found the latter and I hope he's found the former, too.

I suspect he's quite pleased to be part of what might be part of one of the best pitching rotations in the past fifty years.

The Yankees appear to have offered 7/138

I believe it was 6/138 (for a 23 average) and quite possibly 7/161, if the rumours are true that there was a 7th year.

For the record, the very consistent and seemingly unanimous reaction here in North Texas seems to be, in order:

• Aww. Too bad, but maybe that was too expensive anyway.
• He's not going to New York. Too bad he's not staying, but at least it's not New York.
• Now, don't go overpay for social-anxiety-boy in KC!
• Nefty can start. Go sign a closer.
• P.S. Thank you, Cliff. We'll miss you, but we'll be fine ...

Seriously., it's like every media outlet got a  formatted set of talking points on those items ...

With this development, the AL is really wide open next year, isn't it? The impact FAs are gone and I don't see any team such head and shoulders above the rest that they are a lock for 95+ wins.

Wheeee.

With Russ Martin, if the yankees go after Greinke, Montero is likely to be part of the deal but KC has butler & homser

on his way (Montero unlikely to stay at catcher) - I wonder if  as in the Gose acquisition, AA could let Dayton Moore

that he's interested in flipping for Montero

Keith Law brought this up in the Lee signing article.... would the Jays have been better off waiting to trade Marcum until now with two teams that really need a starter now out of luck with Lee?

No. Lawrie will be higher in Law's Top 100 than any of Drabek, Wallace, and D'Arnaud. If that was an ample return for Halladay & 6m, and the market consensus was that it was, then Lawrie for Marcum is fair value. AA didn't need MIL to add Villanueva or their version of a Danny Farquhar or a Gustavo Pierre to make this deal worthwhile. AA has shown through Emaus the value he places on players that don't have stud ceilings, and it's not much.

That's great that the Yankees didn't get Lee.  Not so much for 2011, as with the loss of Marcum, the Jays are unlikely to contend for a post season spot, but for the ensuing years when they might.

Congrats to Toronto's Joey Votto for winning the 2010 Lou Marsh award as Canada's top athelete.  Only the 3rd time a baseball player has won it (also L. Walker and F. Jenkins).  I have felt that participants in the major N.A. pro sports have often gotten short-changed in the Lou Marsh voting, so I am pleasantly surprised to see Votto win it, particularly in a Winter Olympic year.

Yeah, big mistake to see the Yanks lose out on a free agent then assume they will collapse.

Who said that? Certainly not me. The Yankees are a team with some aging key pieces coming off of a 95-win season. They're just simply not a lock for 95+ wins at this point.

Sure, they could make additional moves but until they do, we shouldn't give them credit for them.

K.C. was Interested in and maybe trying to acquire Brett Lawrie http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/odds-ends-pavano.html from Milwaukee when we got him.   I see two people in K.C. I would go after, Greinke (just so no one else competing with us for the Wild Card gets him) and Soria to Close.   Would some combination of: 1) Kyle Drabek or Zachary Stewart, 2) Brett Lawrie, 3) J.P. Arencibia or Travis d'Arnaud or any other Catcher, 4) Anthony Gose or Jake Marisnick, 5) a prospect or two... get us one or both?

This let's us offer good value and keep good value.

Ruben Amaro's attempt to recreate the magic of those Atlanta teams

Depends. When does Cole Hamels go all Smoltz-40-saves on the world?

Joe Blanton = Charlie Leibrandt??

I am relieved to see Overbay gone. Now, if only Wells would opt out of that contract at the end of next season...

the [Texas] franchise likely would have been pilloried by the local fan base

I get why you say that, Hodgie. but it just ain't true. The Rangers did make an extraordinarily good faith effort to retain Lee, and I think many are mildly disappointed that he's gone now. But the schtick around here is In Nolan We Trust, and there would have been no pillorying. Hell, Nolan admitted recently that the team was entertaining an offer for Michael Young, who is the current Mr. Ranger that Nolan himself used to be, and the reaction was not anything like I expected it to be ...

The day when Matt Stairs retires will be a sad one.

He can't retire yet. There's still a bunch of teams he hasn't played for.

Are we going to compete in 2011?   It's a little difficult finding a good Closer now, isn't it?   Are we going to compete in 2012?   Do you think it will be any easier to find one this year?   Are we going to compete in 2013?   Any easier this year?

Top Closers, with a track record of consistency, are very hard to find.   If you can trade for one - go for it.   If you can develop one in-house - WOW!   But until that time...   Good Closers are almost as hard to find, but well worth going after.   Signing anyone less, for any reason, is a waste of time.   Kevin Gregg, for all his limitations, was a good Closer, we just need an upgrade now.

K.C., for all their problems, has a Top closer.   Philly, as good as they are, have Brad Lidge, a Good Closer.   Why do we have to settle for someone else's discards?

Well, he's 35 and it's hard to project him out two or three years into that "contending" window. And as I understand it. the Sawx are chasing him hard, and will almost certainly overpay.

I just don't see Fuentes as a smart move.

I'm happy for Doc. He wanted, above all else, to win. His chances just improved.

Lets hope the Phils' bats don't become their weak point - but the 2010 SF Giants should offer some comfort there.

Gregg has saved 89 vs 22 blown saves over the last 3 seasons, Fuentes was 102 -15 and Rivera was 116 - 8.

Kevin Gregg was not used exclusively as a closer during this period. Thus, many of his "blown" saves were the the kind where a middle reliever or setup man comes into a game earlier than a save situation, and where his only results can be a hold or a blown save (in a game his team was winning). I'm no Kevin Gregg apologist, but you're not really comparing apples to apples here.

his peripherals last year weren't all that bad

BB/9, SO/9 and HR/9 were all not good.

Anyone think we should take a shot on Trevor Hoffman?

My vote.

Well , John Northey: 

Let's see, David Purcey (28) is a failed Starter.  Is he good enough to be our Closer?   Brad Mills (25) might be a failed A.L. East Starter.   Is he good enough to be our Closer?   Robert Ray (26) might be a failed A.L. East Starter.   Is he good enough to be our Closer?

If not, who is?

If not, who is?

Jason Frasor probably is.  Same with Shawn Camp and Casey Janssen.  I wouldn't be surprised if Janssen started the season as the closer, with Camp and Frasor seeing the highest leverage innings and Purcey being the main lefty out of the pen.  Jesse Carlson is kicking around, not to mention Scott Richmond, Dirk Hayhurst
and maybe, just maybe, Dustin McGowan.  Are these names sexy?  No, probably not.  Will this bullpen be better than last year?  Maybe, maybe not.  Downs and Gregg were good and tough to replace, just as Brian Tallet was truly terrible and even tougher to replace.  But if the starters go 7 innings instead of 6, the bullpen will look that much better.  Worrying about the bullpen too much will lead teams to think Brandon League is better than Brandon Morrow.

Subjectively they don't seem like the type, but of course that's deceptive.

This statement made me think of BJ Ryan.  He just looked like a closer, looked like a guy who would get amped to throw three outs and that's it.  But his stuff was...not closer-like.  The low-90s fastball, the swooping slider, his short-arm near-balk delivery...but he just looked like a closer.  Of course, when he was on, he was unhittable.  In 2006, the Jays went 80-0 when leading after 8 innings. 

SEA        6.29
LAA        6.26
BOS        6.24
CWS        6.20
TBR        6.17
OAK        6.12

League Avg 6.05

DET        6.02
NYY        6.01
TOR        5.92
MIN        5.90
TEX        5.87
CLE        5.86
BAL        5.84
KCR        5.80

"Teams have always held a very high percentage of their ninth-inning leads, no matter what their strategy for doing so. The good teams win almost every single time." Well gosh, I wonder why. And since they have this mysterious, built-in ability to win disproportionately many of their ninth-inning leads, obviously the good teams don't need closers!

You'd think if you wanted to assess the impact of the one-inning closer it would make more sense to focus solely on one- or two-run leads, but hey... who cares about using relevant data when you just want to write pretty. Le sigh.

I do sort of cautiously with Posnanski's conclusion that you would ideally have your second- or third-best reliever as closer. However, parts of his reasoning are pretty atrocious.

(The 2005 Yankees: Unit, Sheffield, Brown, Wang, Bernie, Tino, Cano, Flash Gordon... Rivera starts the year horribly, Yankees start the year 11-19, then win 10 straight, then lose 6 straight to the Central, then hang a 13-run 8th on the Devil Rays to win 20-11, then gradually overtake the Red Sox. The Felix Escalona Game, Aaron Small Wonder, the Chacin/Chacon rivalry, I'm sure I'm missing all the good stuff.)

(The 1956 Yankees: Mantle, Berra, Skowron, McDougald, Ford, Kucks, Larsen...)

Interesting comparison.  Both players struggled with injuries on the same Jays affiliate this year.  Both were drafted out of high school in 2007.  The average slash line for the league in question in 2010 was an abysmal .255/.324/.364 (.688 OPS) which made it the hardest run scoring environment in full season ball last year.

Player  Year Bavg  Obp  Slg OPS G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR
  A         2010 .259 .315 .411 726 71 263 36 68 20 1   6
  B         2010 .252 .337 .404 741 61 218 39 55 12 3   5

BTW, I'm bored.

In the year 3000 Youtube , Twitter , and Facebook will merge into one super time-wasting website called: YouTwitFace.
- Conan O'Brien

Interesting thought Greenfrog.  Maybe include Blanton so they can afford Bautista.  Blanton and Brown for Bautista, Rzepczynksi and Thames?

I'm hoping the Angels lose out on Beltre and come after Bautista with Trout.

In my humble opinion, why do the Jays have to find a closer?

If not, who is?

Jason Frasor probably is........Worrying about the bullpen too much will lead teams to think Brandon League is better than Brandon Morrow.

...should the Jays spend money upgrading their bullpen given the loss of both their closer and their set-up man?

Since it appears enough people are concerned about the Bullpen, I will discuss it once again.   Uncertainty is the biggest nemesis to an effective bullpen.   If you don't know when / what you have do, you might not be as effective as you should be.   If you have an established Closer, or someone (from Spring Training) you believe will do the job, you eliminate some of the uncertaincy that exists in a Bullpen.   A Bullpen is the only major piece of a MLB Team Roster without a set responsibility.   If you have a Closer for the 9th, then you could have a Primary Setup / Backup Closer for the 8th.   You should have a GO-TO Guy, the first pitcher in, to serve as a Fireman (in when it's at it's hottest) as well as emergency Setup / Close.   Even Cito 2.0 had that.   Everyone else pitches Long Relief, with a much better idea of when they pitch.   If you get a Closer, then a Setup/Closer, then  two GO-TO guys, you could get by with a long reliever and a 6th starter as your 6-Man Bullpen.

I suspect Alex Anthopoulos was blind-sided by the Cliff Lee signing.   I don't think he was planing on seeing N.Y. missing out on all the big names.   I believe if he had, this off-seaon might be different.   It should have been different, it should have been better.

Look at how hard it is find a good Closer in this off-season.   How hard will it be in July, possibly leading the wild card by 2 games, also leading the League in blown saves?   Not having a Closer is just being incompetent, or lazy, I don't know which is worse.   Jason Frasor was removed as closer and this Bullpen watched it happen, Jason is a decent pitcher, he's just not better than Kevin Gregg.  

Gregg, Downs, Tallet, all part of a 10th of 14 Teams Bullpen, are gone and not returning.   Wes Etheridege (RHP, 25, 6-1-185),Michael Hinckley (LHP, 28, 6-3-195), Winston Abreu (RHP, 33, 6-2-170) and Carlos Villanueva (RHP, 27, 6-2-230) are possible Bullpen additions, joining Shawn Camp (RHP, 35, 6-0-205), Jason Frasor (RHP, 33, 5-10-175), David Purcey (LHP, 28, 6-4-240) and Casey Janssen (RHP, 29, 6-3-235), Jesse Carlson (LHP, 30, 6-1-160) and Josh Roenicke (RHP, 6-3-195), Rommie Lewis (LHP, 28, 6-5-230) as our Bullpen.   That's just not good enough.

A big thank you to the Pittsburgh pirates for signing Lyle Overbay, thus eliminating any chance he would return.

Now, Kevin Gregg sign with the orioles so we can get a higher supp. pick.

The still-unsigned Rafael Soriano says hello.

I am not cheering Overbay's departure either.

Well , thank god the days of the Jays FO over-appreciating mediocre talent is a distant memory . I say,

Hallelujah to that!

Howard is already on the decline. Has a huge contract, is a bad fielder, and only had a .859 overall OPS last year. I remember some site lambasted the trade (probably rotoworld).

In defense of trading Wallace, I think we have a big upper hand in that trade. Wallace didn't really have great stats after ballpark adjustments, and performed terribly in his stint in the ML last season.

If the team truly thinks that Lind can be a solid 1b, then it's worth a shot. It's problematic, though, that he will be trying to rebound at the plate and master a position at the same time. First things first I say... see if the man can still hit first. Personally, I would prefer to sign a stopgap veteran 1b, like Lee, Nady (now signed), Cantu, etc. Maybe Delgado, although his body is likely done at this point. Maybe make a trade, who knows.

Phillies are said to have some of the best high ceiling talent at A ball - so, it's possible some of

that talent will develop and be ready in 2-3 yrs.

And Wallace wasn't around in 2009.

Yes, but in 2009, the previous regime had drafted David Cooper in 2008 and he was steaming

his way to the show and eventually Cooperstown.

and no offense that trade scenario makes no sense for either party

Actually it makes a lot of sense.  Domonic Brown is pretty much all alone in his age group on the Phillies.  They are in win now mode with a team of 30+ veterans.  Their minor leagues are depleted above A ball.  Do they struggle through a few seasons of below average to average play out of Brown when they've invested $140m in winning Campionships? Or do they turn him into an asset that can produce now and perhaps another low minors prospect.  Maybe it's not Bautista.  But maybe its Kemp or Sizemore or somebody else?  If you move Blanton, you can make the move.

Breaking up the season is of little use unless there's an injury (for example) to consider.  What a player does over an entire season is what's relevant.  Over an entire season, there will be slumps, and these should be considered in evaluating what contribution said player might make in a future season.